Stat of the Day, 25th February 2014
Do you ever get that feeling that you've wasted your time? I felt that way with Monday's SotD, if I'm honest. Monday racing is generally pretty poor and I often find it difficult to find a horse with decent stats at a decent price.
However, King's Grace seemed to fit the bill and I got a reasonably good value 3/1 about him, only to see the field decimated by no less than 7 of the 10 runners being withdrawn.
This made for a farcical situation, my 3/1 was eroded to 6/5, a price way too low for SotD and then the bugger got himself turned over at even money. There was however, a silver lining to the cloud over proceedings in that my R4-affected bet was still priced up at 20% above SP and as Matt rightly told us all yesterday: value is key to success.
More chase action today, as we visit North Yorkshire and more specifically, the...
Where this Class 4 Handicap Chase over the minimum trip sees George Moore's Turf Trivia attempt to complete back to back wins inside five days.
I'm not too concerned about him being turned out again quickly in a bid to keep him running well whilst confidence is high, as past stats suggest he'll go well.
Over the last five years, NH handicap races at the sharper end of trip ie 2m to 2m2f have been good to horses running for the second time within eight weeks, whose last run was four or five days ago. In fact of those turned back out so quickly, regardless of their last result, have won 98 of 340 races (28.8% strike rate) when priced at 12/1 or under. This has resulted in level stakes profits of 200.8pts over the five-year period, a 59% rate of return.
Of those 340 runners, 71 out of 188 were top three finishers last time out with that 37.8% strike rate yielding 123.5pts (+65.7% ROI) profit, whilst those finishing in the top three of a chase went on to win 24 of 58 races (41.4% SR) for 53.3pts (+91.9% ROI).
In fact, LTO winners have a very good record overall in handicap chases when turned out within five days of a win, especially at the sharper (and SotD!) end of the market. If we applied a 6/1 cap to such horses, history tells us that they go on to record the double 38% of the time in fields of 6 to 14 runners. This is courtesy of 93 winners from 245 races and is responsible for excellent profit figures of 97.5pts (+39.8% ROI).
Those are actually long-term figures, but they aren't skewed by some good results several years ago. In fact the recent record stands up to scrutiny with 26 winners from 67 in the last three years achieving a strike rate of 38.8% for level stakes profits of 23.2pts, or 34.6% ROI. These short-term numbers are very similar to the historical data, which is always a good sign.
Turf Trivia fits both the criteria nicely and he has been running well of late. He was a decent enough third at Newcastle almost six weeks ago, before winning well at Sedgefield lat Thursday. The stats will say he only won by two and three quarter lengths that day, but he was never troubled and won comfortably easing down once the race was won. Regular jockey Barry Keniry (on board again today) never had to touch him with the stick, just a quick shake of the reins was enough that day.
The horse has been raised 7lbs for that win, but he wasn't overexerted nor asked for an effort, so should be able to carry the extra burden here. I'd expect to see him around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark yet again, so I'm taking advantage of a larger price which appears to offer some value with a 1pt win bet on Turf Trivia at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor. Feel free, however, to...