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Stat of the Day, 1st July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Leicester : Chetan @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 11/10 (Reluctant to race and very slowly away, reached rear of mid-division over 5f out, struggling over 2f out ) A disappointing end to an otherwise excellent month. Personally, I felt the decision to race at Leicester yesterday was farcical.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £8,187 to the winner...

Why?...

As we welcome the return of Jumps racing, I'm hoping to kick July off in style with a 6 yr old gelding whose record in hurdle contests at 2 miles at beyond makes for good reading at 2133111, all under today's jockey Gavin Sheehan, including a comfortable win in this grade when last seen (admittedly 9 months ago). His apparent suitability for today's task is highlighted in the Geegeez Shortlist report...

As ever, green means good, whilst grey means there's little/no data to hand, as he's never raced here at Southwell (although his trainer & jockey have good records here, as I'll show in a moment) and the largest field he has raced in so far is 11 runners. Otherwise from those 7 hurdle efforts I mentioned above, he is...

  • 4 from 7 going left handed
  • 4 from 7 for jockey Gavin Sheehan
  • 4 from 6 in a handicap
  • 4 from 6 wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 from 6 on good ground
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 2

And now for our main source of statistical evidence, the racecard itself, which I've expanded to show you the 2 report angles and the 1 query tool angles that I have for this runner today...

Much of this will be self-explanatory to many of you, so please bear with me as I go through it for those who maybe haven't been with us very long.

So, across the card...we have the horse carrying the 4th most weight, his most recent five runs have been good, he has run  with a tongue tie on more than five occasions (as above), he had a wind op more than five runs ago, has won at this distance (well, 42 yards shorter LTO), he's aged 6 and will carry 10st 13lbs.

He is trained by Jamie Snowden who has a good record here at Southwell denoted by C1 (10+ runs at the track in last 365 days, 20%+ win OR 51%+ place) and C5 (25+ runs at the track in the last five years, 15%+ win), whilst jockey Gavin Sheehan also has the C5 icon.

As for the reports, the first two are pretty obvious, but my own SthlHrd needs a little more explanation, but it's actually aligned to the C5 report and refers to a group of trainers I look out for in handicap hurdles at this venue, Jamie Snowden being just one of a dozen.

Now let's take a brief, but closer look at the above, starting with the jockey...

Gavin Sheehan is 16/58 (27.6% SR) at this venue overall over the last five years and in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2m5f since the start of 2015, he is...

A quick look at the sire, Aizavoski, shows 6 from 28 at middle distance range. I've narrowed that down a bit to UK hurdle contests over 2m3f to 2m5f, where his offspring are...

And finally, our trainer, Jamie Snowden, whose record here at Southwell since the start of 2016 in handicap hurdles with horses sent off shorter than 12/1 currently stands at...

and those 10 runs include 3 wins from 7 on Good ground, 3 wins from 6 shorter than 2m5f and 2 wins from 4 for Gavin Sheehan and hopefully I've dissected the card enough...

...to justify...a 1pt win bet on Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!