Tag Archive for: Charlie Johnston

A Look at All-Weather Returners

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In this article I am looking at some all-weather data going back to 2019 in the UK, writes Dave Renham. At this time of year, the only flat racing in Britain occurs at the six all-weather tracks, these being Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton. The first three named all race on a Polytrack surface, the last three on a Tapeta surface.

My initial research for this piece is connected with the last time out all-weather (LTO AW) course that a horse ran and linking it to the course they raced on next time. As you might expect, certain horses tend to stick to one specific AW track. The two most likely reasons for this are either they run better there, or their stable is close to the track in question (or both). I guess trainers with smaller yards have to keep a close eye on costs, and travelling less distance is one way to save money.

All Runners: Surface Same or Different

When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (e.g. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse did not run particularly well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a potential positive. Thinking about this now, I realise that I have not crunched any data comparing the LTO AW course to current AW course, so my starting point is to look at just that.

Let me begin by comparing all runners between the LTO AW course to today's AW course. It should be noted that for any data connected with Southwell, I have used only runs on the new Tapeta surface which was first deployed at the end of 2021. It made no sense to include previous fibresand results.

The table below displays win strike rates, ROI percentages (to both Industry Starting Price, SP, and Betfair Starting Price, BSP), as well as Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices. I have colour coded some of the A/E indices – those in green are deemed positive (0.95 or above), those in red deemed negative (0.79 or below):

 

 

The vast majority of LTO course to ‘this time’ course stats seem much of a muchness. However, the five A/E ‘positives’ each have one thing in common – these paired courses all have different surfaces:

 

 

I concede I was not expecting this. In terms of strong positives, I would have expected to see the two courses in question either being the same course, or at least having the same surface.

Sticking with Newcastle as the LTO course, the data seem to suggest that horses perform better next time when switching to race on Polytrack. Indeed, here are the exact splits for this:

 

 

There is quite strong evidence here highlighting that if a horse ran at Newcastle LTO, one would much prefer to see it switch surfaces next time to race at one of the three Polytrack courses (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield).

Let’s now compare the A/E indices of the other five courses in terms of LTO course to the today's surface and see if a surface switch is also preferable:

 

 

As an example, the first bar represents a run at Chelmsford last time and racing on Polytrack next; second is Chelmsford runners moving to Tapeta next time; and so on.

Chelmsford (Polytrack 0.83/Tapeta 0.82) and Wolverhampton (Polytrack 0.82/Tapeta 0.83) have very similar A/E figures indicating that the next time surface makes little or no difference from a value standpoint.

However, the other three tracks have slightly bigger differentials seemingly in favour of a surface switch. This is especially true for LTO runners at Southwell. This cohort, when switching surfaces to Polytrack, has produced an A/E index of 0.91 compared to 0.84 for those remaining on Tapeta. That is not quite as potent as the figures shared earlier for Newcastle, but the differences are noteworthy given the data analysed covers thousands of races.

The overall data shared to date points firmly to the fact that a surface switch offers punters better value. This has especially been the case for horses that raced at either Newcastle or Southwell LTO.

LTO Winners: Surface Same or Different

So far, I have only looked at general cases connected with all runners. But what if we restrict the research only to LTO winners? The table below has the same columns as in section one, showing win SR%, A/E indices and returns to SP and BSP. Again, I have highlighted positive and negative A/E indices – green for positive, red for negative.

 

 

Nine of the LTO to 'today' course combinations have seen LTO winners show a profit to SP; this increases to 18 when using BSP.

Looking at the negatives we see that Southwell to Chelmsford and vice versa have both produced poor results for LTO winners. This may be worth noting.

Staying with A/E indices, here are the ten ‘positives’ (0.95 or higher) grouped together:

 

 

Again, perhaps surprisingly, nine of these ten ‘positives’ involve a surface switch. In fact, if we lump together all the results of LTO AW winners, comparing horses that have switched surfaces with those that did not, we get the following results:

 

 

All the evidence is pointing to the fact that LTO AW winners that switched surface are by far the best value and also are more likely to win compared with those that haven’t switched.

Looking at the least experienced LTO winners, two-year-olds (2yos), we can see that a surface switch (regardless of which way round) is an extremely strong positive when comparing the returns to SP and BSP:

 

 

These numbers show that 2yos that won LTO on the all-weather were far better on the wallet when switching surfaces from their last run to this one. In terms of win strike rates 2yos switching surfaces won 28.3% of the time, with those racing on the same surface having won 26.9% of the time. These SR%s are quite close together, so I am thinking it is not solely the 1.4% difference in strike rates that has affected the bottom lines. My guess is that it is also due to the fact that the market has been slightly blind, offering bigger prices on these inexperienced LTO winners when they switch surface.

 

Surface Same or Different: Trainers

I now want to look at a handful of trainers who seem to have strong patterns when it comes to comparing the LTO course surface with the course surface next time.

George Boughey

George Boughey’s runners seem to have performed better on a Tapeta surface than on Polytrack. In fact, looking at his runners on the sand since 2019 (regardless of whether they ran on the AW LTO) he has shown a blind profit to BSP at all three Tapeta courses (Newcastle, Southwell, Wolverhampton). I want to compare his record with horses that raced on Polytrack LTO and are racing on it again next time, with those that ran on Tapeta LTO and stick to Tapeta in their follow-up run. Here are the splits:

 

 

The differences are stark and the ‘betting angle’ is clear. Boughey horses staying on a Tapeta surface require very close scrutiny. Profits have been made ‘blind’ to SP; to BSP the profit stands at £50.10 (ROI +22.7%). Those returning to a Polytrack surface look best avoided. Here are some additional Boughey stats worth sharing:

1. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Polytrack surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 9 of their 35 starts (SR 25.7%) for losses to SP of £16.07 (ROI -45.9%)

2. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Tapeta surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 25 races from 62 (SR 40.3%) for a small SP profit of £1.67 (ROI +2.7%); to BSP this improves to +£10.54 (ROI +17%)

3. Boughey 2yos racing on a Tapeta surface having raced on Tapeta LTO have won 14 races from 50 runners (SR 28%) for a profit to SP of £24.73 (ROI +49.5%); to BSP the figures read +£32.31 (ROI + 64.6%). Compare this to his 2yos going from Polytrack LTO to Polytrack this time – these figures read a dismal 6 wins from 53 (SR 11.3%) for an SP loss of £40.97 (ROI -77.3%)

 

Charlie Johnston

Charlie Johnston has only been training on his own for a couple of years, but he runs plenty of horses on the AW, so we have sufficient data to crunch. Johnston has been the reverse of Boughey when it comes to Tapeta LTO to Tapeta this time runners. He has really struggled with these horses. Of the 159 qualifiers only 14 have won (SR 8.8%) for an SP loss of £41.10 (ROI -25.9%). The loss figures would have looked much worse but for one of his winners that scored at a very unexpected 40/1. He has saddled 24 favourites with this profile and only two have won for a whopping 82p in the £ loss to SP. His second favourites have fared little better winning three from 21, losing 44p in the £.

Compare this to a near 19% strike rate with Johnston horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. Backing all runners blind to BSP in this scenario would have seen one break even. Backing favourites and second favourites combined with this profile yielded excellent results unlike their Tapeta/Tapeta counterparts. These runners have scored 16 times from 46 (SR 34.8%) for an SP profit of £8.36 (ROI +18.2%).

 

David O’Meara

O’Meara has a good record with horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. 153 horses have tried, of which 28 have won (SR 18.3%) for a profit of £30.12 to SP (ROI +19.7%). To BSP this improves to +£60.66 (ROI +39.7%).

Horses switching from Polytrack to Tapeta though have been only half as successful from a win perspective, passing the post first just 9.7% of the time (17 wins from 176). It should also be noted that horses making this surface switch for O’Meara, and which started in the top three of the betting, have incurred SP losses of over 24p in the £. In addition, horses that finished first or second LTO on Polytrack before switching to Tapeta next time have won just four times from 46 attempts.

 

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Concluding Thoughts

When researching huge data sets like I have for the majority of this article, the good news is we can have a fair degree of confidence with the results that are found. As a general rule, this research seems to suggest that a switch of AW surfaces from LTO run to today's run is preferable, especially when we are talking about betting value. It certainly should not be viewed as a negative. For LTO winners and especially LTO 2yo winners, a surface switch does seem a real positive. The figures shared here for both look strong and clear-cut, showing positive correlation.

So, does this mean I’ll be lumping on surface switchers this winter? No, of course not, but I will take a much keener interest in such runners than I have done in the past. Another thing this research has done is open my eyes to how punters, like me, can be blinkered in their thinking. In the third paragraph of this article, I said,

‘When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (eg. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse has not run that well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a positive.’

As a mathematician by trade I am a logical thinker, so what I wrote earlier made perfect sense. Well, it did at the time! Now I have researched this area I can see that, according to this recent data at least, my perception was an inaccurate one.

This process has also demonstrated to me that as punters we should be evolving and always trying to get better. If we stand still, we will fall behind the crowd. Every day is a school day!

- DR

 



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Johnston looking to Align spot in Leger line-up

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Align The Stars could set up a St Leger bid when he seeks to continue his hot run of form in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes at York on Friday.

Charlie Johnston’s three-year-old has finished no worse than third in six outings this term, winning his last three starts in handicap company.

Having opted to step up in both distance and grade for the Group Two Lonsdale rather than contest Saturday’s Melrose Handicap, Johnston is hoping his upwardly-mobile colt can take advantage of some exposed rivals while his stock is still rising.

“It wasn’t an easy decision to make and one we agonised over for a while, but we landed on the side of the Lonsdale Cup and now he is up to a rating of 102 he has earned his crack at Group level,” explained Johnston.

“We’re going to have to take on some hardened, older stayers but between trying the trip and being out of form, most of them have some sort of question to answer, and certainly no one else is coming into the race on the back of three straight wins and on such an upwards curve and a progressive profile.

“We thought maybe now was the time to try to catch these horses when they are not at their best, but at the same time we obviously have plenty of respect for them – they are rated in the low 110s and we have 10lb to find with them.

“However, we are young, progressive and hopefully heading the right way.”

Align The Stars’ performance on the Knavesmire could prove key in determining if the son of Sea The Stars heads to Doncaster for the final Classic of the season.

Align The Stars could tee-up a shot at the St Leger
Align The Stars could tee-up a shot at the St Leger (Ian Hodgson for The Jockey Club/PA)

Johnston added: “We’re hopeful that stepping up to two miles could see our horse improve again and another factor is, for the Leger to be a realistic ambition, he would need to win the Melrose where he can finish in the first four here and still emerge with a lot of credit and keep his Leger credentials intact.

“If he can go closer than that he will have bolstered his Leger ambitions significantly, so let’s hope he can do so.”

Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios has been the standout stayer of this season and in his absence, Ballydoyle look to Point Lonsdale to fill the void as he tries two miles for the first time.

He impressed over 14 furlongs in the Ormonde Stakes on his penultimate start, with his connections confident he cam make his mark at this new distance on the Knavesmire.

The Wathnan Racing team seek to exploit Kyprios’ absence with the John and Thady Gosden-trained Gregory, who has not tasted victory since the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in 2023.

Third in the Yorkshire Cup earlier in the season, he left a Gold Cup disappointment behind him when running well to place in the Goodwood Cup.

Gregory (left) shot to prominence when winning at Royal Ascot
Gregory (left) shot to prominence when winning at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

“He’s back on track. Ascot was very disappointing and a bit of a blip, but he ran very well at Goodwood and we were very happy to see that,” said Richard Brown, Wathnan’s European racing adviser.

“He has run well at York before and I think it is a track he will enjoy – two miles at York is probably spot-on for him.

“Kyprios is out on his own in this division, but Gregory shouldn’t look out of place in this field and I think that long straight – he’s a big-striding horse – will play to his advantage.”

A place ahead of Gregory in the Yorkshire Cup in May was Vauban, with Willie Mullins’ dual-purpose star going on to finish fourth in the Gold Cup.

Vauban has another trip to Australia in his sights
Vauban has another trip to Australia in his sights (John Walton/PA)

The Cheltenham Festival-winning hurdler was not at his best when only third in the Curragh Cup, but he returns to two miles now as he continues his path back to the Melbourne Cup.

“He had a nice run in the Curragh, he’ll have to improve, but I’m expecting that,” said Mullins.

“Hopefully, he’ll be good enough to get in the placings there. It’s a tough race, a hot race and a first three finish would be a good result.”

Andrew Balding won this with Coltrane 12 months ago and is responsible for course winner Alsakib and Night Sparkle this time, while Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn enjoys his visits to York and took home this prize in 2022.

Quickthorn has a great course record
Quickthorn has a great course record (Mike Egerton/PA)

Brian Ellison will be hoping for a drop of rain to aid Tashkhan’s cause, while Dubai Gold Cup runner-up Al Nayyir makes his first outing for new handler Tom Clover.

“These Group races are all hard to win, but there’s no Kyprios so it could have been a deeper field. Al Nayyir looks in good shape and we are looking forward to it,” said Clover ahead of the British Champions Series event.

“He’s won on easier ground but we think that top of the ground is ideal for him and that going left handed at York will suit too. It was fast ground and two miles going left-handed when he ran to an extremely good level in Dubai, and it’s a similar scenario at York.”



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Align The Stars may take in York trip en route to St Leger

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Charlie Johnston’s Align The Stars has Lonsdale and Melrose options at York before the St Leger comes into focus.

The three-year-old son of Sea The Stars is out of proven dam Kitcara, making him a full-brother to William Haggas’ multiple Group winner Al Aasy.

After a quiet but promising juvenile season, he has followed a constant upwards trajectory this year, initially placing in a string of handicaps while working his way up to longer distances.

After winning a mile-and-a-half contest at Thirsk in June, he stepped up to a mile and six furlongs to win the bet365 Handicap at Haydock when clearly relishing the extended trip.

At Goodwood, he ran over the same distance again in the Coral Summer Handicap and despite having to make all of the running under Joe Fanning, Align The Stars put his head down at the business end of the race to win by a neck from Andrew Balding’s Fairbanks, who had been a heavily-backed winner at the July Meeting.

bet365 Old Newton Cup Day – Haydock Park Racecourse
Align The Stars after winning the bet365 Handicap at Haydock (Ian Hodgson/PA)

“He’s been absolutely great since Goodwood, he hasn’t done anything serious but he’s just been ticking over and he seems to have come out of the race very well,” said Johnston.

“It hadn’t been the plan to go out there and make the running, it was just how things panned out.

“It’s not something he’s done at all in his career, he was still quite green and immature in front and it was only when he had a bit of company inside the last two furlongs that he knuckled down.

“He looked to be in quite a bit of trouble at the two-furlong pole but he was always holding them in the final furlong.”

The colt could now head to the Ebor meeting, where he may have a handicap option in the Melrose or alternatively the opportunity to step up both in trip and grade in the Group Two Lonsdale Cup.

The St Leger is a key date in his diary too, as is the French answer to that race in the Prix Royal-Oak at Longchamp in October.

“He won’t go to the Voltigeur, I can say that with clarity, he’ll be left in the Lonsdale at the confirmation stage and I wouldn’t rule out an entry in the Melrose,” Johnston said.

“If he goes to York, it will be for one of those two options, but always with an eye on the St Leger and the Prix Royal-Oak later in the season.

“Those are significant targets, but I don’t think the picture will become a whole lot clearer until we see the Lonsdale confirmations later in the week.”

Align The Stars is a big horse who looks set to improve with maturity and Johnston is looking forward to targeting him at the top staying events next season as a four-year-old.

“For all that you would like them to be top class at a mile and a half, we’ve always realised that it might be stamina that will take this horse to the top level,” he said.

“He’s certainly a horse we’re looking at as a potential Cup horse for next year and he’s bang on track for those kind of aspirations at this stage in his career.”



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Align The Stars enters Leger picture after game success

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A tilt at the St Leger could be on the agenda for Align The Stars after digging deep to complete his hat-trick in the Coral Summer Handicap at Goodwood.

The record-breaking Mark Johnston had saddled four of the last 10 winners of the one-mile-six-furlong contest before fully handing over the reins to his son Charlie last year.

Align The Stars was a 100-30 joint-favourite to strike gold for the current licence holder at Kingsley House following successive wins at Thirsk and Haydock and he refused to bend under a typically well-judged ride from Joe Fanning.

Having been sent straight to the lead, the challengers were queuing up to have a pop at the Sea The Stars colt halfway up the straight and he briefly looked in trouble after being passed.

However, with the far rail to help, Align The Stars gritted his teeth to wrestle back the advantage and he had just enough in the tank to repel the other joint-favourite Fairbanks by a neck.

“He’s a grand horse. He wasn’t doing a lot up the straight until Oisin (Murphy, on Fairbanks) came to me, then he picked up and was always just doing enough,” said Fanning.

“He’s won well in the end and hopefully there is more to come. He has a great attitude.”

Charlie Johnston at York
Charlie Johnston at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

Johnston said: “It was good, but it certainly wasn’t plan A and they aren’t tactics (front-running) we’ll look to replicate again.

“He’s huge, for a start, and quite literally he barely fits in the stalls. If you look back at his races at the start of the year, he was really struggling with the first 50 yards to get out and get into stride, and as a result he was always finding himself in pretty difficult positions.

“That definitely cost him races at York and Hamilton.

“He’s got better in that regard but Joe still has to be very aggressive in that first 50 yards to get a good position.

“It wasn’t the plan to be making the running and it was only when horses actually came to him and didn’t get away from him that I knew he was going to come back strong – and so he did.”

Paddy Power cut Align The Stars, whose full-brother Al Aasy won the preceding Glorious Stakes, to 20-1 from 25-1 for next month’s St Leger – and his trainer is keen on a crack at Classic glory.

“I was quite prepared to run him in the Gordon if it was the only option available to us, but I think a mile and a half on this ground would have been too sharp a test for him, so when there was the option to run over a mile and six on this ground, we felt we could away with it,” he added.

“Tony (Farmer, owner) has always dreamed of York and if you had asked us at every stage this season, the Melrose was probably the pinnacle for this year, but he’s probably gone beyond that race now.

“He’s in the Voltigeur, the Lonsdale Cup and he’s in the St Leger. It’s going to require another fair step up to be competitive at that level but I have enough faith in the horse that it’s a realistic aim.

“He still hasn’t raced over a relentless mile and six and I think stamina is what is going to bring this horse to the next level.”



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Align The Stars shines to demonstrate his promise at Haydock

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Charlie Johnston is excited to see how high Align The Stars can climb the ladder after plundering the £100,000 bet365 Handicap at Haydock.

The full-brother to multiple Group-race winner Al Aasy set connections back 100,000 guineas as a yearling in the autumn of 2022 and while three juvenile outings failed to yield a victory, he offered plenty of hope for the future.

The son of Sea The Stars again had to make do with minor honours on his first three starts of the current campaign, placing at Newmarket, York and Hamilton before opening his account with a clear-cut victory at Thirsk last month.

Stepping up in class and trip for this one-mile-six-furlong contest, Align The Stars was a 7-1 shot in the hands of Joe Fanning and after racing close to the pace for much of the way, he dug deep when challenged to score by a length and a half.

bet365 Old Newton Cup Day – Haydock Park Racecourse
Align The Stars returns victorious at Haydock (Ian Hodgson/PA)

Johnston said: “He’s a huge horse and thank God he is because that’s probably the only reason we were able to afford him at the yearling sales given his pedigree. He’s bred to be a top-class horse and he was near enough that size as a yearling, so that probably made him affordable to us.

“We probably ran him more than we wanted to last year, chasing his Book One bonus. We always knew he was a horse that was going to get better this year, particularly when he stepped up to these kind of distances.

“He’d been a little bit unlucky on his first couple of starts this year, but he’s started to put things together at Thirsk, we felt he was going the right way and this was the next step on the ladder.”

While the Middleham handler is not ruling out an interim appearance at Glorious Goodwood for his imposing colt, the prestigious Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor Festival next month is considered as a major target.

“This is a race that we’ve won a few times in the past, including with Sir Ron Priestley, and Subjectivist actually got beat in it trying to carry top-weight,” the trainer added.

“I’ve always hoped this horse would be a Group horse in time and I’ve not seen anything today that doesn’t give me that confidence.

“If he went to Goodwood he’d have to come back to a mile and a half and Tony (Farmer, owner) is a big York man, so the Melrose has been on the radar for a long time.

“I’ll have an eye on stakes company as well because I think that’s where this horse belongs.”

Rossa Ryan produced the Robert Cowell-trained Cloud King with a well timed challenge to claim top honours in the Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap.

Cloud King won the opening race at Haydock
Cloud King won the opening race at Haydock (Ian Hodgson/The Jockey Club)

Turning out just five days after finishing fourth at Windsor, the 17-2 shot was held up off a brisk early gallop before quickening up to smartly run down the leaders and score by a length and three-quarters from Vince L’Amour.

“I thought he’d enjoy a bit of dig in the ground and there’s a good enough headwind out there and we went a good gallop, so I was confident that if I got the gap I’d go and take it,” said Ryan.

“I just had to wait and I thought I had everyone covered.”



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The Gatekeeper knocking on the door for Lincoln honours

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Charlie Johnston is preparing Qipco Champions Day winner The Gatekeeper and his stablemate Dutch Decoy for the Pertemps Network Lincoln at Doncaster.

The Gatekeeper carried the Middleham Park Racing colours to four victories last season, also scoring at Newcastle, Newmarket and Goodwood, as well as finishing a close second in the lucrative Golden Mile at the latter venue in high summer.

He rounded off his campaign with a surprise success in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot in October and will soon bid to add the season’s first major handicap to his CV, with Dutch Decoy another likely for his yard in the March 23 highlight.

“The Gatekeeper and Dutch Decoy both did their first proper piece of work together on Thursday and they’re our two with the Lincoln as their target,” said Middleham-based Johnston.

“The Gatekeeper will definitely run, Dutch Decoy was a little bit later coming back in and he’ll need everything to go smoothly for the next three weeks to make it, but at the moment the plan is to get them both there.

“The Gatekeeper had an unbelievable year really when you consider he’d been off for 625 days before he came back. He actually won at Newcastle on this weekend last year as his comeback and rounded off the year with a career-best on Champions Day.

“He’s gone up to 100 now, so life is going to be more difficult for him this year, but he was a real top-class handicapper last year and I’ve go no concerns about him going to Doncaster first time out.

“We learnt as last year went on he actually quite likes a bit of dig in the ground, which it would seem fairly certain we’ll get for the Lincoln at this stage, so I’m looking forward to running him.”



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The Gatekeeper closes the door on Ascot rivals

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Charlie Johnston saddled a winner with his only runner on Qipco British Champions Day as The Gatekeeper ground out a deserved victory in the Balmoral Handicap.

Owned by Middleham Park Racing, the 25-1 shot was always in the ideal spot, up with the pace and on the far side of the Ascot straight.

Ascot specialist Ropey Guest and the Hayley Turner-ridden Docklands tried their hardest to reel in soft-ground loving The Gatekeeper, but Joe Fanning had a willing partner and he kept on stoutly for a one-length triumph in the ultra-competitive finale to Champions Day.

“We knew he would like the ground, I don’t know that it’s key to him but we knew he would handle it,” said Johnston’s father, Mark.

“I couldn’t help but note that front-runners have done particularly well today, so Mike Prince (of Middleham Park) said to Joe, ‘jump and bowl along’, which is what we tend to do anyway.

“I think that’s probably it (for the year), the owner is talking about the Lincoln for next year.”



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Sacred Angel makes all for Princess Margaret crown

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Sacred Angel produced a dominant front-running performance to strike Group Three gold in the Bateaux London Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot.

A field of 10 juvenile fillies went to post for the six-furlong contest, with Sacred Angel a 16-1 shot for trainer Charlie Johnston off the back of a maiden success at Newmarket a fortnight ago.

Jason Hart sent the grey daughter of Dark Angel straight to the lead and while the challengers were stacked up in behind, she kept finding more to kick a couple of lengths clear.

The well-fancied Pretty Crystal quickened smartly from the rear to emerge best of the rest, but could not get on terms with Sacred Angel, who passed the post with three lengths in hand.

The victory provides Johnston with a first Group-race winner since becoming the sole licence holder at his Middleham yard, with his father Mark also breaking his Group-race duck in the same race with Marina Park in 1992.

“It was a good way to start. She is improving dramatically – very much so,” said the trainer.

“Her first run at Pontefract, I thought she was the best horse on the day. She was quite green and got beat by two horses who’d had experience.

“If you told me then, within two starts we’d be at this level, I’d have thought, ‘I’m not so sure about that’, but she took a nice step forward at Newmarket and a step forward again.”

Charlie Johnston at his Middleham yard
Charlie Johnston at his Middleham yard (Danny Lawson/PA)

Sacred Angel was carrying the colours of Nurlan Bizakov for the first time, with the businessman having snapped her up after her Newmarket success from the Titanium Racing Club.

Considering future plans, Johnston added; “The owners obviously sponsor quite a high-profile race in France (Prix Morny) and on the back of that I would suspect they will want her to go there next.

“Possibly the Cheveley Park at the end of the year will be the obvious real highlight target.”

Richard Fahey was pleased with the performance of runner-up Pretty Crystal.

He said: “I thought it was a good run, but it just didn’t work out again for her. She’s been a bit unlucky. But she is quite a nice filly and she’ll definitely go for the Lowther at York.”



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Gold Cup winner Subjectivist retired

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Subjectivist, an impressive winner of the 2021 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, has been retired.

The six-year-old stormed to a five-length victory at the Berkshire track two years ago, supplementing previous successes in the Prix Royal-Oak at ParisLongchamp and a Dubai Gold Cup verdict at Meydan.

However, he suffered a career-threatening tendon injury after that success – an issue which kept him on the sidelines for 618 days before returning to action in Saudi Arabia back in February.

After finishing third in the Dubai Gold Cup, Subjectivist went on to fill the same position in the Gold Cup back at Ascot, in what transpired to be his final start after his old issue flared up again.

Initially trained by Mark Johnston before he transferred the licence to his son Charlie, who saddled him this term, Subjectivist retires as a six-times winner with over £890,000 banked in prize money.

Johnston senior, who is now assistant trainer to his son, said: “We have known this was coming, it’s been difficult keeping him going.

“I had slightly mixed feelings about his run at Royal Ascot as while he ran a good race, I didn’t think it was as good as his best of two years ago.

“The objective was to get him to Ascot and then we hoped we might get him to Goodwood, but it has always been there, rumbling away.

“His Gold Cup win was the highlight, but he won three races on the bounce, two at Group One level and one at Group Two, with his win in Dubai being very impressive – you could say that was his purple patch, those seven or eight months.”

Subjectivist is now set to embark on a stallion career and Johnston added: “We hope he will go to stud now.

“There were a couple of people interested after his Gold Cup win and one of those has kept in touch, so we will see what happens.”



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Dubai Mile to drop back in trip with autumn aims on the horizon

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Co-trainers Martyn and Freddie Meade will drop Dubai Mile back in distance and wait for soft ground in the autumn as they bid to secure his future as a stallion.

Having purchased a half-share in last year’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner from owner Ahmad Al Shaikh, the horse has left Charlie Johnston’s care to join the Meades’ Manton Park roster.

“He is here and the idea is clearly he has to do a bit more to be a stallion yet,” Martyn Meade confirmed.

Bought for €20,000 as a yearling by the Johnston team, he made swift progress as a juvenile and finished second in the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes before taking a top-level victory in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

Fifth in the 2000 Guineas on his three-year-old bow, he did not appear to stay a mile and a half in the Derby, finishing ninth of 14 to Auguste Rodin.

He again flattered to deceive over the same trip in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, when beaten eight lengths by King Of Steel.

Meade said: “The idea is we will campaign him for the rest of the season and maybe even next season if we need to, because he preferably needs to win a couple more, at least one and maybe two Group Ones.

“That’s what we will be targeting him for, but at the moment we will be giving him a break.

“He’s had quite a tough sort of campaign, with three races at the top level and inevitably that takes it out of them. You can’t race in those Group Ones all the way through.”

Meade feels autumn targets may be ideal for Dubai Mile, who won his Group One on deep ground.

“The little I know about him, he will be pretty good on soft ground, as he showed in France,” he said.

“If we can campaign him towards the back end of the season, I think that would be our preference.

“It is all to do with distance. I don’t think he proved himself as well as he might have done over a mile and a half and our thoughts will be to drop him back.

“On the face of it, while we have to assess him, we are thinking of changing his trip, shortening it up. A mile and a quarter will be his trip.

“Hopefully we can get a bit of soft ground at the end of the year and find a suitable race for him.”

Martyn Meade will plot a back-end campaign for Dubai Mile
Martyn Meade will plot a back-end campaign for Dubai Mile (Adam Davy/PA)

Manton Park Stud currently stands Aclaim and Advertise, both of whom were Group One winners for Meade, with the trainer well aware Dubai Mile needs to enhance his page before embarking on a breeding career.

“It is lovely to have him, we’re very pleased,” added Meade. “He looks a nice horse.

“It is a strategic move as far as we are concerned and let’s see how we go, but he needs to put a bit more on his CV before we can stamp him.”



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Johnston working towards Goodwood Cup goal with Subjectivist

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Charlie Johnston will train Subjectivist towards the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup, providing he shows the right signs after his exertions at Royal Ascot.

Having raced keenly, the six-year-old finished a fine third in the Gold Cup on his first British start since winning the race in spectacular fashion two years ago.

Subjectivist was subsequently sidelined for 618 days with a career-threatening leg injury and on his return raced very keenly in a Group Three handicap in Saudi Arabia in February.

He moved on to Meydan in a bid to win a second Dubai Gold Cup and ran a pleasing race to finish third, beaten five lengths behind Broome, before his excellent effort at Ascot, when going down by four and a half lengths to Courage Mon Ami.

“He was a little bit fresh in some ways, because he is not doing any galloping at home because of his injury,” said Johnston.

“Every day is a judgement call as to how the legs feel and how much work he does. He hadn’t really had a real good blow into him at home, so I think that would have contributed to him being a little bit keen at Ascot.

“I thought this was very different to Saudi. He was manageable, whereas in Saudi, he was running away with Joe (Fanning), he wasn’t listening to him at all.

“It’s funny, when he came back in, Joe felt Ralph Beckett’s horse (Lone Eagle) had come to him quite early and got him racing early. As I watched it, coming out of Swinley Bottom, I was urging him just to send him.

“I’m sure Joe knows everything we’re going through at home and he was riding him with that in his mind a little bit.”

The Middleham handler is taking it gently, as not to over-exert Dr Jim Walker’s fragile warrior before deciding whether to race on following the horse’s tendon injury.

“It was a run of immense pride in the horse and the team for having got him there,” added Johnston.

“You couldn’t help but feel a little bit of what could have been. If this horse is able to finish third in an Ascot Gold Cup on three legs, then how many of these would we have won if we hadn’t had the setback we had? It was a good run, for sure.

“The plan is to go to Goodwood. He hasn’t been sat on yet, he’s just been swimming and on the water walker.

Charlie Johnston will try to get Subjectivist to the Goodwood Cup
Charlie Johnston will try to get Subjectivist to the Goodwood Cup (Danny Lawson/PA)

“The idea is for him to go back ridden on Tuesday, then trot for a week, then go back cantering the week after. To be honest, it is only at that point we will really find out what scars, if any, this run has left.

“He was sound in the legs post-race, but given his history, you don’t run two and a half miles at that level without some consequence.

“Hopefully he’ll be fine and we will do all we can to get him to Goodwood.”



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Subjectivist Gold Cup effort delights Charlie Johnston

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Charlie Johnston was brimming with pride after seeing Subjectivist run an admirable race in defeat in his bid for a second Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

The six-year-old was a spectacular winner when breaking Stradivarius’ stranglehold on the two-and-a-half-mile showpiece in 2021, but has suffered his fair share of injury woes since and at one stage looked more likely to retire than make it back to Berkshire.

He was well beaten on his return from the best part of two years off the track in Saudi Arabia in February, but looked more like his old self when third in the Dubai Gold Cup in March, giving connections hope that he could complete a fairytale comeback and regain his Gold Cup crown.

After going off a well backed 9-2 shot in the hands of his regular pilot Joe Fanning, Subjectivist set the fractions on the front end and refused to give in once passed by the eventual winner Courage Mon Ami and the gallant runner-up Coltrane late in the day.

In the end he was beaten four and a half lengths into third, but Johnston was nevertheless delighted to see his stable star prove he can still mix it at the highest level.

He said: “He’s run a great race. I was sort of expecting he would win, or we would be out with the washing!

“It’s been a long road and just being here is pretty special. Let’s hope he’s OK and we can go again.

“He has defied everything to be here. So we are delighted, but would always rather be there [on the winner’s podium].”

Joe Fanning after winning the Gold Cup on Subjectivist
Joe Fanning after winning the Gold Cup on Subjectivist (Steven Paston/PA)

Fanning added: “He ran a great race, he was just a little bit keen earlier than I wanted to be, but he kept quick and kept finding and he’s ran blinder.

“Given the issues he’s had to come back from it was a good run.”

Meanwhile, Oisin Murphy had no complaints after 11-4 favourite Coltrane lost little in defeat when claiming the silver medal.

He said: “He relaxed great and travelled round super, and I felt I could go and win the race.

“Frankie’s come with me and it was a good battle, and Frankie came out on top.”



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Grand Prix de Paris plans for Dubai Mile following Derby

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Dubai Mile will be aimed at the Grand Prix de Paris with the possibility of a run at Royal Ascot in between.

The Ahmad Al Shaikh-owned colt, a son of Roaring Lion, won twice last season – including in Group One company – and then finished an excellent fifth to Chaldean in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on his three-year-old debut.

Sent off a 25-1 chance on Daniel Muscutt’s first Betfred Derby ride at Epsom on Saturday, he was prominent on the inside rail before fading into ninth once the pace quickened.

Trainer Charlie Johnston said: “I think it was a great position to have got into and saving ground.

“I didn’t think they were going that quick, so you have to be handyish – that is what I felt at the time. The winner (Auguste Rodin) and the second (King Of Steel) have come from a long way back.

“I could feel he was in a bit of trouble about six to five (furlongs) out, just as the pace started to lift.

“He wasn’t sitting there full of horse under him. He was hitting that flat spot he hits and whereas on other tracks you can hit a flat spot and get away with it, here you hit a flat spot and the race happens, then you run on when it is all over.

“The pacemaker couldn’t decide whether to go inside or outside and that didn’t help him, but only cost him a length or two – it wasn’t a significant reason for where he finished.

“Albeit we have had and have plenty of confidence in the horse, he was still a 25-1 shot in the Derby.”

Dubai Mile holds engagements in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot on June 23 and also the Irish Derby at the Curragh on July 2.

However, Johnston is keen to head to ParisLongchamp for the Grand Prix de Paris, over the same mile-and-a-half trip on July 14.

“We will see about Ascot and I’ve always thought the Grand Prix de Paris was a race that would really suit him,” said Johnston. “I’d like to have that as part of his plans.

“Whether or not he goes to Ascot in between, we’ll see.

“If he did everything, it would be three weeks and three weeks – it is six weeks until Paris.”



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Johnston dreaming of Derby delight with Dubai Mile

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Charlie Johnston was always destined to take over from his record-breaking father Mark at their Middleham base. But to have a realistic Betfred Derby contender through Dubai Mile in his first year with just his name on the licence has certainly exceeded his expectations.

While Johnston senior went close at Epsom with Dee Ex Bee in 2018, finishing second to Masar, the blue riband event was one of only a handful of major races to elude him during a stellar career.

Charlie initially shared the licence with his father last season before Mark took his name off completely, sooner than many thought but done partly through paternal pride so that his son would get the credit he felt he deserved.

Now, with Dubai Mile having won a Group One over 10 furlongs at two in France and run perfectly well in the 2000 Guineas when fifth, Charlie has a real shot at putting the Johnston name on the illustrious Epsom roll of honour.

“I wouldn’t be singing from the roof if he wins having done so in my name, in fact I’d be a bit embarrassed after dad had been trying for 30 years and we won it for the first time without his name on the licence!” said Johnston.

“There’s still no greater race for a trainer to win, I think.

“There’s no race I can win this year that would give me greater assurances that when I go to the yearling sales, people will want to fill this barn again next year and try to find the next one.

“This game is a cycle and you always want people to invest in you, by winning the Derby there is no greater advertisement.”

Dubai Mile is owned by Ahmad Al Shaikh, who himself has had two of his horses finish second at huge prices in recent years – Khalifa Sat at 50-1 behind Serpentine in 2020 and Hoo Ya Mal at 150-1 to Desert Crown last year.

Johnston said: “He’s gone close twice in the Derby at huge prices, so I’m sure he’s going there with huge expectations and he’s great fun to train for.

“He flew a team from his favourite restaurant in London up here and we had a huge lunch with all the staff while watching the (Saint-Cloud) race and he gave prizes out and I don’t think the team has ever felt closer or more involved than he made them.”

Having only cost €20,000 at the Goffs Orby Sale, despite being by Roaring Lion and out of Beach Bunny, who was beaten just a short head by Dar Re Mi in the 2009 Pretty Polly, Johnston has shown he can look beyond the obvious – and feels others may have been put off by Dubai Mile’s big white face.

“We thought we’d got a bargain at £20,000. To us he’s a very good looking horse, but bizarrely a lot of people would be put off by his markings for a start. He’s got so much white about him and he must have had a fight with a fence at some point as a foal as when you take the saddle off, he’s got white marks all over his withers,” said Johnston.

“His pedigree, as is always the case, put us on to him. We’ve been fortunate to have horses for Lady O’Reilly (Beach Bunny’s owner), so would always pay close attention to her horses. Another factor was probably the fact that his stallion was sadly dead at the time, which meant he was never going to get the same support as most first-season sires and he was a weak, backward yearling.

“I’m not going to say we knew right away (he was good) as we buy 70 every year in that price bracket, but am I confident that out of 20 every year we’d find one good one? Yes, but was I confident he was the one? Probably not until he ran in the Royal Lodge, if I’m honest.

“The Royal Lodge (second to The Foxes) looked ambitious at the time, because of his price he’d been astutely placed to win two restricted novices, but I think the handicapper would have said he had no chance going into the Royal Lodge, as did the market. But it was a small field and it was a race we always like to target which led us to roll the dice.

“We’ll be taking the winner on again and a lot of water has gone under the bridge for both since the Royal Lodge. I got the impression up until York they thought he (The Foxes) was a 10-furlong horse and there was talk of the French Derby, whereas we’ve always known where we were going.

“Ahmad was always keen to go for the Guineas and, in hindsight, it was clearly the right decision because there’s been a hell of a lot more interest in him since then than before it. People take him a lot more seriously now.

“I said if he finished in the first six and hit the line strong I’d be delighted and that is exactly what he did. He’d have been fourth in another stride which would have been lovely but knowing he wants further, we couldn’t have wished for much more.”

Dubai Mile exercising in Middleham
Dubai Mile exercising in Middleham (Danny Lawson/PA)

Since the Guineas, John and Thady Gosden’s Arrest has won the Chester Vase on soft ground. His first run since being beaten a head by Dubai Mile in France and yet Dubai Mile is available at a much bigger price.

“A lot has been made of our form with Arrest and interestingly he’s about a quarter of the price we are. It’s probably not surprising given John Gosden’s Derby record and ours, but the weather forecast means it should be a good to firm Derby, whether it is or not we’ll wait and see,” said Johnston.

“I’m sure Arrest’s camp are a lot more worried about that than us. We might have won a Group One on heavy, but we’d rather it was quicker as it might inconvenience a few others.”

Of the others, he said: “I have a lot of respect for the (Jessica) Harrington horse (Sprewell), he looks overlooked in the market simply because Aidan (O’Brien) doesn’t get beaten in that (Leopardstown) trial and if you do beat him, you must have a good one.

“It’s been a bit different this spring as the two trials you’d expect Aidan to win he’s been beaten in, with the (John) Murphy horse (White Birch) winning the other (Ballysax) – and he ran a nice race at York (second to The Foxes).

“It should always be the best test of a three-year-old and all the ones who deserve to be there will be there. Does 14-1 represent our chance? It probably does, it might underestimate him a little.

“There’s no horse in this race that we know is better than ours, on ratings we’re right there with them all. He’s a Group One winner who ran a good trial over an inadequate trip in the Guineas, so in that sense I think we’ve got a rock-solid profile.

“The fact he was a €20,000 yearling and a bit more unfashionable probably explains why he’s 14-1 rather than 4-1. There’s nothing in there that scares me or we have 7lb to find with. If he improves for the trip, which we all expect he will, then he goes there with a good chance.

“I don’t feel it has added any pressure, it’s great to have a horse like this, you need them any time but to have one the first year the licence is in my name is great.”



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Dear My Friend to break new ground for Middleham Park in Derby

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Middleham Park Racing will have their first Betfred Derby runner as Dear My Friend bids to do his owners proud this weekend.

The chestnut is one of 16 possibles for the Epsom Classic on Saturday and will mark a significant milestone when he carries the syndicate’s familiar pale blue and orange silks in the revered Group One.

The colt’s route to the Derby included the Dante at York earlier in the month, an established trial in which he finished eighth, and a win in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s all-weather track in early April.

Those efforts, added to two successes and a handful of Listed and Group performances as a juvenile, have left him on a rating of 104 ahead of the Derby – for which he is currently a 100-1 shot for trainer Charlie Johnston.

“It’s our first ever runner in the race, we’re going into it with eyes wide open,” said Mike Prince of Middleham Park.

“He was well beaten in the Dante but we think the step up in trip will suit him. There’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t say, there’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t handle the track and there’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t handle the occasion – hopefully we’ll be there trying to pick up some of the pieces.

“He’ll need to take a step up in his form, he’s a notch below the favourites at the moment but we’re hoping that step up in trip will lead to some improvement from him. He’s got a lovely, long stride and a slow cadence.”

Though likely to be an outsider with the market favouring Group winners such as Auguste Rodin and Derby Trial winner Military Order, it is not unheard of that a horse at a big price should go well and there are recent examples in Hoo Ya Mal, who was second at 150-1 last year, and 50-1 chance Mojo Star who came second the year before.

Dear My Friend (right) winning the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle
Dear My Friend (right) winning the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle (Richard Sellers/PA)

Prince said: “There have been some horses at big prices making up the placings in recent years, Hoo Ya Mal was 150-1 and I think the third and fourth that year were big enough prices (Westover at 25-1 and Masekela at 66-1).

“That’s one of the things we said to the owners when were deciding to enter, there’s good place money down to sixth and they’re all delighted that we’re rolling the dice.

“He is rated 104 so he is going there on his merits, it’s a race with a great sense of tradition and there’ll certainly be a good contingent there to support him and enjoy the occasion.”



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