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Stat of the Day, 16th February 2018

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Leicester : Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/11 Jumped left at times, led until 2nd, prominent, every chance 4 out, weakened before mistake last...

Next up is Friday's...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 6, 2m A/W handicap chase on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won last time out, 4 weeks ago on this track on his yard debut for Charlie Mann and ridden for the first time by Fran Berry who is back on board today. He now returns to attempt to take his Lingfield record to 3 from 3, whilst in the process he could improve the following stats relating to his new trainer...

1.  Since 2013, his handicappers who were his only representative at a track are 54/305 (17.7% SR) for 185.6pts (+60.9% ROI), including...

  • 11-30 days since last run : 38/189 (20.1%) for 170.64pts (+90.3%)
  • running less than 100 miles from home : 31/166 (18.7%) for 95.29pts (+57.4%)
  • LTO winners : 10/47 (21.3%) for 27.84pts (+59.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/8 937.5%) for 43.69pts (+546.1%)

2.  Since 2012, Charlies LTO winners are 25/114 (21.9%) for 41.3pts (+36.2% ROI), with those last seen 16 to 120 days earlier winning 19 of 71 (26.8%) for 43.2pts (+60.8%)

3.  His record in A/W handicaps is currently 4/25 (16% SR) for 51.73pts (+235.1% ROI)

...and this pared down approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.20 Exeter :  Eddy @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, headway before 3 out, soon every chance, ridden and pressed winner before last, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a length...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

2.45 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 5yo+ novices handicap chase contest over 2m7f on good ground...

...featuring a 6 yr old grey gelding who returned from a 21-week absence to finish as a runner-up on his chase debut LTO 19 days ago. He was only beaten by two lengths behind a former Gr1 hurdle winner rated at 143! Prior to this chasing bow, our boy had never been out of the frame in 7 NHF/Hurdle contests finishing 3113211 and to date he is...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 on good ground
  • 4 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Harry Bannister
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 this year
  • 1 from 1 in a handicap
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3

Other reasons to back this one include...

1. Being trained by Charlie Mann whose horses are bang in form right now with 4 winners & 3 placers from his last 9 runners (10121P122) over the last couple of weeks or so and this is his only runner of the day. Since 2011, when having just one runner per day, Charlie is 73/455 (16% SR) for 140.6pts (+30.9% ROI)

2. Charlie's Class 3 to 5 handicappers with just one other run in the previous 90 days are 25/139 (18%) for 72pts (+51.8% ROI) since the start of 2010.

3. The Charlie Mann / Harry Bannister partnership is good for 24 winners from 94 efforts (25.5% SR) for 55.9pts (+59.4% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 18/71 (25.4%) for 54.9pts (+77.3%)
  • in chases : 10/47 (21.3%) for 36pts (+76.6%)
  • and in hcp chases : 10/44 (22.7%) for 39pts (+88.7%)

4. Pickamix was sired by Sagamix, whose offspring are 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 33.1pts (+87.2% ROI) when priced at 15/2 or shorter since the start of 2015 including...

  • males at 14/25 956%) for 35.7pts (+142.8%)
  • in handicaps : 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.3pts (+184.2%)
  • over 2m5f to 3m : 3/9 (33.3%) for 8pts (+88.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/2 (100%) for 9.37pts (+468.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG, which was available from Betvictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2013

Roman Romance didn't run badly yesterday, but she didn't win, nor was she placed, I'm afraid. In fact, the only thing I seem to have got right yesterday was to advise a bet at 13/2 E/W, as her SP was just 9/2. (PS she finished 4th)

At the time I wrote yesterday's piece she was 4th favourite and I confidently informed you all that..."she holds an edge over two of the three horses ahead of her in the market, whilst the favourite Teocht has been disappointing and is already beginning to look overexposed at this level"

Well, as the Law of Sod tends to dictate, Teocht stayed on the best to win with the other two horses I'd dismissed filling the places! That said, our mount could very well have got placed but for running flat for a while mid-race, when she dropped back to sixth. By the time her jockey got her going again, she'd plenty to do, but only missed the places by a head in a tight battle for 3rd spot. (3rd to 6th were separated by hd, nk and sh!)

We're off to Devon today for a crack at the...

3.50 Newton Abbot

Where Charlie Mann's sole runner of the day Western King aims for back to back course and distance victories over a lengthy 26.5 furlongs. As well having winning here last time out, Western King is of interest, as Charlie Mann doesn't send many runners on the near-300 mile round trip from his Upper Lambourn base to Newton Abbot.

In fact, in the last 10 yrs, he's only has 66 runners here in total, but without breaking any records has achieved a respectable 18.2% strike rate via 12 winners. Of course, I want to drill into these numbers a bit further to aid the selection process!

In the 2011/13 period he has had four winners from fifteen (26.7% SR) for profits of 10.56pts, a return of 70.4%, which fits the SotD bill rather nicely and from the original 12/66 stat, the figure over the 10yr period in chase events is five from twenty-eight (17.9% SR), with the three-yearly figure being three from seven (42.9%) for 16.9pts (+241.3%) profit.

So, any runner of his interests me here, especially chasers and Western King comes here (as mentioned above) with the benefit of having run and won over course and distance on the first of this month.

Newton Abbot is one of those tracks where a previous C&D win tips the balance in favour of returning horses, as in the 2011/13 timeframe, there has been 17 winners from 60 horses (28.33% SR) who have a CD next to the name and also won last time out. Those 17 winners have produced 34.2pts profit, or 57% of stakes invested. This year alone the figures are 8 winners from 22 (36.4%) for 16.1pts (+73.2%) profit.

If those figures weren't impressive enough, then if we apply a simple odds filter (similar to the ranges SotD operates in), we can rule out horses below 9/4 and above 12/1 and this leaves us a return of 8 winners from 35 (22.9%) in 2011/13 for 37.8pts profit (+107.9% ROI) and the figures for 2013 are 3/13 (23.1%) for 14.7pts (+112.9%)

The odds filter doesn't skew the strike rates dramatically in our favour, in fact it lowers the strike rate, eliminating any fear of backfitting. Yet the ROI increases and that is the more relevant figure of the two.

I should also add that Noel Fehily is on board today, a jockey in top form. Noel has won 35 of his last 100 races for level stakes profits at SP of 91.37pts, his record at BOG prices must be at least another 20% on top of that. He has actually won 8 of his 18 rides here at Newton Abbot this year, a strike rate of 44.4% yielding a profit of 46.2pts, a return of almost 257% of stakes. from those figures, he is 4/8 for 18.63pts over the chase course.

We know the stats back up the selection, we know the horse comes here in good nick, so why is Western King not a short priced favourite? Well, this is a tougher contest, he's up 8lbs for an easy win LTO and probably won't be allowed to make all. That said, there are plenty of question marks about all the runners here today and I think a 1pt win bet on Western King at 5/1 BOG with Stan James represents good value today.

If you don't have a Stan James account (you really should and you can use this nifty bit of kit to get one), then you can see what your bookie is offering when you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

The card for today's race is right here!

 

Prize money agreement another success for Bittar

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Mann speaks up for trainers on racecourse closures

Brendan Barber and the TUC should sign up Charlie Mann quickly. Just weeks after he organised a trainer boycott of a race at Northern Racing and Arena Leisure Group run Worcester, he took on racing’s largest racecourse owners again, this time over their decision to close Hereford and Folkestone at the end of this year. Read more

BHA poised to act if trainers repeat race boycott

Moulin De La Croix completes Worcester walkover

The British Horseracing Authority last night last night indicated that it would be prepared to use its authority if trainers were to repeat the action they took yesterday at Worcester in boycotting a race. It seems likely that their bluff may well be called, as Charlie Mann, who co-ordinated last night’s action, threatened a repeat next week, again at Worcester. Read more

Trainers to boycott Worcester race in prize money protest

Worcester racecourse has moved its novice hurdle race to the end of tonight’s card. Why? Well, the race is likely to be a walkover, despite having 12 horses declared. In an unusual display of solidarity several trainers have said they will withdraw their horses in protest against the low level of prize money on offer for the race. Read more

Trainer Stats: 14th June 2012

Cecil Heading To Ascot In Form

This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 29th April 2012

There's not a lot to say about yesterday's selection, it ran a shocker and had nothing to give; trooping home stone last of 12, some 40+ lengths off the pace!

The weather has decimated the racing programme recently and today is no exception: only Ludlow stages any racing in the UK, leaving us with few options for SotD. I have, however, found a selection for today, albeit a tentative E/W one! 16 runners are due to tackle a Class 4 Novices Hurdle over the bare minimum 2-mile trip on Good to Soft ground in the...

3.50 Ludlow

Charlie Mann's record in hurdles races at Ludlow is very good: 14/57 (24.6%) overall and 2 winners from his last five hurdlers to step onto the Shropshire course. He has just the one entry today, in the shape of Seventh Sky.

This horse won a couple of races on the flat up to 1.5 miles, so speed between the hurdles should be an issue: he ran really well on his hurdling debut at Ffos Las on heavy going, so some cut in the ground shouldn't pose too many questions. He has been fairly well beaten on his last two outings, but anything approaching that debut form should be good enough for at least a place today, hence the E/W bet.

I've taken 10.50 for the win and 3.20 for a place (both with Betfair), but as always, you can...

Click here for the latest odds on the 3.50 Ludlow.

TV Trends: Sat 24th March 2012

Richard Hannon’s Cai Shen has been all the rage for Saturday’s Winter Derby, but does he fit the key race trends? Read more

Noel Fehily appointed stable jockey to Emma Lavelle

It was all change last weekend at Emma Lavelle’s Cottage Stables in the village of Hatherden near Andover when Noel Fehily replaced Jack Doyle as stable jockey. The move was something of a surprise as Fehily has filled that position for Charlie Mann for the last 14 years. Read more

TV Trends: Sat 14th Jan 2012

Is 6 The Magic Number In The Lanzarote?

Did you know that a 6 year-old has won Saturday’s Lanzarote Hurdle 12 times since 1992? Andy Newton gives you all the trends that matter for the weekend’s LIVE C4 races....... Read more