Stat of the Day, 21st January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2015

I don't know what kind of fee a 3lb claimer jockey receives for a spin around Southwell in a Class 6 race, but I'll wager that Joey Haynes was value for money on board General Tufto on Tuesday afternoon.

The old warrior didn't look interested and was bumped along from a very early point to stay in contention for his usual late surge. He did start to pick runners off in the midsection of the race, but when an effort was needed off the home turn, he showed very little.

All of which meant a 7 lengths defeat, back in sixth of ten runners and a point dropped for SotD. I shall be looking to recoup that point and boost the monthly profits on Wednesday with my selection from the...

3.25 Ayr:

Which is likely to prove a severe test of stamina for the eight runners tackling this Class 4 handicap chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground. My selection here, the 4/1 BOG Chavoy, who at 11-12 less his jockey's 3lb claim (ie 11-9) is top weight for this contest, but he's expected to relish the conditions.

Top weight might not be the burden you'd expect...

Since 1st March 2010, in UK handicap chases on heavy ground during the months of November through to the end of March, horses in the top three of the weights and carrying between 11-5 & 11-11 have a really good record, especially when they've not raced more than three times in the last 3 months and have also won inside the last month.

Basically, we're looking for in-form and race-fit, but not overcooked horses. There have been 23 winners from 67 such horses since 2010 with that 34.3% strike rate yielding 29.4pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 43.9%.

Runners at Class 3/4 level are 19/41 (46.3% SR) for 37pts (+90.2% ROI) and horses sent off below 6/1 are 22/49 (44.9% SR) fr 36.9pts (+75.3% ROI).

Class 4 runners priced below 6/1 have an excellent record of 12 wins from 19 (63.2% SR) for profits of 29.3pts at an ROI of 154.3%

Chavoy has already won twice from seven heavy ground runs...

...and in races where conditions will play a major part in the outcome, it is desirable to have some heavy ground form. Since 2011, in the months from December to March (ie when the ground is generally at its boggiest!), you should look for horses with at least two heavy going wins from less than 15 runs running over trips of 2m4f and beyond, where stamina really gets tested.

Such horses are 65/350 (18.6% SR) for 193.9pts (+55.4% ROI) profit with Class 4 runners winning 16 of 72 races (22.2% SR) for 40.6pts (+56.4% ROI), which fits in with the overall picture.

Class 4 runners priced from 9/4 to 11/3 are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 29.6pts (+98.7% ROI). 

As for the rest of the horse's profile...

He has made the frame on both appearances here at Ayr, including a heavy ground win over hurdles at a trip just half a furlong shorter than today. I already told you that he's 2/7 on heavy and has stayed this trip in the past. He also stayed further than this trip, whilst failing to complete the Eider over 4m1f at Newcastle also on heavy ground, making it as far as five from the finish.

He has 3 wins and 2 places at Class 4 level,whilst his record in the 110-119 OR bracket reads 11321. He has three of the seven times when turned out within 16 to 30 days of his last run and has a 2/4 record in January.

The suggestion is that he thrives in worsening conditions and things are expected to be pretty grim here today, so I've no hesitation in backing Chavoy at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor.

That's a price you should all be able to get, as it's on offer in at least five places, as you'll see when you... here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Ayr

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Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 3rd May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd May 2014

Friday started well as Calm Attitude extended his unbeaten record on soft ground to four races and a big drift out to 5/2 from our advised 7/4 meant we'd a healthy stake on our pair of runners at Lingfield later in the afternoon.

Unfortunately, that's where the good news ended. Both runners were disappointing and they were the last two home of the six that eventually went to post after three horses were withdrawn during the day.

The only thing I got right was that the favourite Port Alfred wouldn't win, he was eventually 3rd at a miserly 5/4.

Friday's results were as follows:

Calm Attitude:  won at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
Our Philli Vera: u/p at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Green Monkey: u/p at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Gregori: u/p at 5/2 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
226 winning selections from 788 = 28.68%
74 winning bets in 207 days = 35.75%

Stakes: 410.00pts
Returns: 475.44pts

P/L : +65.44pts (+15.96% ROI)

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold


This is my last set of selections for the week, so it would be nice to find a couple of winners from the following races...

6.45 Doncaster:

Roachdale House has made the frame in four of his five starts to date, winning two of them in the process. He's two from two over today's 7f trip and was a winner on his only previous visit to Town Moor, when he ran on strongly to win by a couple of lengths staying on over course and distance last October on similarly soft ground as he'll encounter today.

He can be excused his run at Musselburgh a fortnight ago over a longer trip on unsuitable good to firm ground. He finished 7th of 11 runners after a six month break from the track. He was, however, only beaten by seven lengths and should strip fitter for that outing and looks a decent prospect at 7/2 BOG dropping back to his more favoured 7f.

7/2 BOG is also the generally available price of my alternate pick Scrutiny, who makes just his fourth start here. He too was back from a six months break last time out and not only did it look like he needed the run, he found the 6f trip too sharp for him at Newmarket and he wouldn't have enjoyed the good ground as much as he'll relish today soft conditions.

The ground was soft when he won for the first time at Newbury and a return to those conditions should suit today and he's another one who will have benefited from having had a pipe opener a fortnight ago. His yard couldn't be in better form, and they'll be expecting to add to their recent tally of 9 winners from 18 in the last fortnight here with Scrutiny.

7.30 Hexham:

I can't help but think that Chavoy is overpriced at 8/1 BOG with PP here, as I expected him to be a good two or three points shorter, and he might well be later! He has already demonstrated his liking for heavy ground, having won twice in six outings and after running in three races at Class 2 and 3 recently, he drops back to Class 4 and the same mark as his last victory four starts ago.

His record at this Class 4 level is 3/5, having won each of his last three efforts in this grade. He performs best in these smaller fields, where he has two of three races. He has dropped back to a workable mark of 118 for this contest and I'll be having an E/W saver here too.

I'm backing that selection up with Danners, who has won a couple of points races on heavy ground and is still relatively unexposed in this sphere, having made just 5 appearances to date. Although he has yet to taste success under Rules, results have been improving race by race and he was very unlucky to go down by a short head on his handicap debut at Fontwell last time out.

He seemed to idle for a while mid-race last time out and had he kept his concentration, he would probably have won and it is hoped that the first-time fitting of blinkers will help him along today. Runner up in each of his last two outings, today could well be a case of third time lucky and we can currently back him at 7/2 BOG in most places.

Which should hopefully lead us nicely in to the...

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Scrutiny / Danners @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Scrutiny / Chavoy @ 39.50/1 (7/2 & 8/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Roachdale House / Danners @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365, BetVictor & PP)
Roachdale House / Chavoy @ 39.50/1 (7/2  & 8/1 : Betfair Sportsbook & PP)