Stat of the Day, 21st January 2015
I don't know what kind of fee a 3lb claimer jockey receives for a spin around Southwell in a Class 6 race, but I'll wager that Joey Haynes was value for money on board General Tufto on Tuesday afternoon.
The old warrior didn't look interested and was bumped along from a very early point to stay in contention for his usual late surge. He did start to pick runners off in the midsection of the race, but when an effort was needed off the home turn, he showed very little.
All of which meant a 7 lengths defeat, back in sixth of ten runners and a point dropped for SotD. I shall be looking to recoup that point and boost the monthly profits on Wednesday with my selection from the...
Which is likely to prove a severe test of stamina for the eight runners tackling this Class 4 handicap chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground. My selection here, the 4/1 BOG Chavoy, who at 11-12 less his jockey's 3lb claim (ie 11-9) is top weight for this contest, but he's expected to relish the conditions.
Top weight might not be the burden you'd expect...
Since 1st March 2010, in UK handicap chases on heavy ground during the months of November through to the end of March, horses in the top three of the weights and carrying between 11-5 & 11-11 have a really good record, especially when they've not raced more than three times in the last 3 months and have also won inside the last month.
Basically, we're looking for in-form and race-fit, but not overcooked horses. There have been 23 winners from 67 such horses since 2010 with that 34.3% strike rate yielding 29.4pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 43.9%.
Runners at Class 3/4 level are 19/41 (46.3% SR) for 37pts (+90.2% ROI) and horses sent off below 6/1 are 22/49 (44.9% SR) fr 36.9pts (+75.3% ROI).
Class 4 runners priced below 6/1 have an excellent record of 12 wins from 19 (63.2% SR) for profits of 29.3pts at an ROI of 154.3%
Chavoy has already won twice from seven heavy ground runs...
...and in races where conditions will play a major part in the outcome, it is desirable to have some heavy ground form. Since 2011, in the months from December to March (ie when the ground is generally at its boggiest!), you should look for horses with at least two heavy going wins from less than 15 runs running over trips of 2m4f and beyond, where stamina really gets tested.
Such horses are 65/350 (18.6% SR) for 193.9pts (+55.4% ROI) profit with Class 4 runners winning 16 of 72 races (22.2% SR) for 40.6pts (+56.4% ROI), which fits in with the overall picture.
Class 4 runners priced from 9/4 to 11/3 are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 29.6pts (+98.7% ROI).
As for the rest of the horse's profile...
He has made the frame on both appearances here at Ayr, including a heavy ground win over hurdles at a trip just half a furlong shorter than today. I already told you that he's 2/7 on heavy and has stayed this trip in the past. He also stayed further than this trip, whilst failing to complete the Eider over 4m1f at Newcastle also on heavy ground, making it as far as five from the finish.
He has 3 wins and 2 places at Class 4 level,whilst his record in the 110-119 OR bracket reads 11321. He has three of the seven times when turned out within 16 to 30 days of his last run and has a 2/4 record in January.
The suggestion is that he thrives in worsening conditions and things are expected to be pretty grim here today, so I've no hesitation in backing Chavoy at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor.
That's a price you should all be able to get, as it's on offer in at least five places, as you'll see when you...
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