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Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th May

SANDOWN – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)

Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*

Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1

Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)

Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)

Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.

Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race: 

1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)

1/5—Zambeasy (good)

 

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6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around.  Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already.  Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years.  These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins.  Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes: 

1/1—Petrus (good to firm)

 

7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight.  David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.

 

8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests.  LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon.  Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further.  Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered.  Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale.  Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale: 

3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—First Selection (good)

1/1—Fastar (good)

1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

2.30 Ayr : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Next up is Thursday's...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap (4yo+) over 1m on Polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has won three times at this track and three times at today's trip. In fact, he actually has three wins and one place from nine efforts over course and distance and has now slipped back to a mark just a pound higher than his last win here.

His trainer Chris Dwyer is 91/571 (15.9% SR) for 163.3pts (+28.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, including 29 winners from 163 (17.8%) for 121.2pts (+74.4%) here at Chelmsford.

And of those 163 Chelmsford handicappers...

  • those last seen 10 to 50 days earlier are 24/120 (20%) for 144.8pts (+120.7%)
  • males are 17/101 (16.8%) for 112.7pts (+111.6%)
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 23/61 (37.7%) for 34.4pts (+56.4%)
  • those racing over 7f/1m are 12/54 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+266%)
  • Class5 runners are 9/43 (20.9%) for 1.04pts (+2.4%)
  • those sent off as favourite are 9/20 (45%) for 4.93pts (+24.65%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Lewis Edmunds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.8pts (+97.7%)

...and this simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd May

REDCAR – MAY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.40 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 73.7% units went through – 7/2 & 15/8*

Race 2: 53.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/13* & 11/2

Race 3: 91.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 15/8 – 14/1

Race 4: 57.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* & 11/4

Race 5: 69.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 3/1* - 8/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4* - 9/2 – 11/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Tarrzan) & 7 (Willow Brook)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Pretty Baby) & 4 (Gild Stone)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Robsdelight) & 3 (Ekanse)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Maksab), 3 (Completion) & 2 (Poet’s Prince)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Shovel It On) & 2 (Al Khan)

Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Cristal Spirit), 1 (Canadian George) & 5 (Nibras Galaxy)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Let’s start with calling a spade a spade shall we by suggesting that there is some turgid sport on offer today.  That said, favourite backers had no cause to complain at the corresponding meeting last year and Mick Channon should be able to get them off to a decent start at the first time of asking today having declared his third placed debut representative TARRZAN who ran at Dundalk.  It’s disappointing to see Mick having to drop his new inmate into a seller which I guess should serve as a warning point for anyone looking to dive in too heavily his afternoon.  WILLOW BROOK receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor:

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Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions (stats include two winners at 8/11 and 4/6), though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan won with all three of his runners yesterday and with GOLD STONE having won on her second start at Beverley the last day under similar (good) conditions, Kevin’s Havana Gold filly should go close here, albeit southern raiders PRETTY BABY and LEFT ALONE are obvious dangers.  The first named William Haggas raider ran well enough at York to suggest that her subsequent Chelmsford victory was predictable.  William’s Orpen filly has a chance to secure a success here en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Redcar card.

 

3.10: Silvestre De Sousa attempts to ride his first winner for Gay Kelleway at the ninth attempt here having been booked to ride ROBSDELIGHT who has attracted money on the exchanges overnight.  We’re not talking massive investments you understand but on this card (or anywhere today I suspect), it will not take a great ammont of cash to move markets.  EKANSE carries famous colours and it’s worth noting that his mum Esterlina won on debut over a slightly longer trip, albeit she failed to add to that victory via four subsequent assignments.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess on the Redcar programme.

 

3.40: A 16 ounce ‘hike’ for a decent run by MAKSAB at ‘headquarters’ last time out should ensure that Mick Channon’s other runner at this meeting (aside from Tarrzan in the opening event) will get involved at the business end of proceedings, especially as De Sousa retains the ride from Newmarket with (seemingly) the jockey having been offered an input as to where the three-year-old Makfi colt was going to run next.  COMPLETION and POET’S PRINCE add interest to this Class 4 contest.  Sha La La La Lee’s Wolverhampton success does not warrant a 13/8 price from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Racing at this venue has long since left me cold and this many new races on a card hardly changes my mind relating to this racecourse.

 

4.10: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that SHOVEL IT ON is exactly what favourite backs might to this afternoon relating to the David Evans three-year-old Elusive Pimpernel gelding.  Only AL KHAN represents any kind of threat, a scenario which increases given Kevin Ryan’s hat trick yesterday which means that the trainer has saddled five of his last seven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the only course winner on the card:

1/7—Gaelic Wizard (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although plenty of respect is offered to CRISTAL SPIRIT (particularly from a Placepot perspective) value for money might be found elsewhere given the declarations of CANADIAN GEORGE (one of several interesting bookings for De Sousa on the card) and NIBRAS GALAXY.  It will be interesting to see if the exchange money for Moltoire grows as the hours tick by.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new race.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

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2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

6.55 Lingfield : My Target @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong)

Our next runner goes in Thursday's...

8.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  1m A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £7310 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has won twice and made the fame a further three times from his six starts so far with finishes of 211 on the All-Weather, including 2 wins from 2 over the 1m trip, the most recent being an LTO success 69 days ago.

His trainer, John Gosden, is bang in form, as typified by...

  • 18 winners from 50 (36% SR) in the last 30 days
  • 13 from 37 (35.1%) over the last fortnight
  • and 8 from 20 (40%) over the last week.

On top of this, Johnny's LTO winners are 147/488 (30.1% SR) for 137pts (+28.1% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • April runners are 35/85 (41.2%) for 50pts (+58.8%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 27/77 (35.1%) for 18.5pts (+24.1%)

Whilst in the same 2014-18 time frame, his runners returning from a break of more than 60 days are 134/487 (27.5% SR) for 87.9pts (+18.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • LTO winners : 56/163 (34.4%) for 45.8pts (+28.1%)
  • in April : 54/153 (35.3%) for 33pts (+21.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 37/107 (34.6%) for 16.8pts (+15.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 32/104 (30.8%) for 75.7pts (+72.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 32/104 (30.8%) for 45.8pts (+44%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 12/22 (54.6%) for 20.5pts (+93.1%)

And finally for now (!), it's worth noting that this is Mr Gosden's only runner here today and in fact his only runner anywhere all day, and when sending just one handicapper out to a meeting since 2013, he has come home with the prize money on 52 of 199 (26.1% SR) occasions rewarding followers with 47.4pts [profit at an ROI of 23.8%, from which...

  • his only runner all day : 20/89 (22.5%) for 20.7pts (+23.3%)
  • at Chelmsford : 4/12 933.3%) for 8pts (+66.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Coral & SportPesa at 5.50pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 10/3 BOG. In fact 11/4 BOG was still widely available at 8.15am on Thursday, so we should all manage to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 12th April

AINTREE – APRIL 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £159.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 30.3% units went through – 5/1 & 4/1 (6/5)

Race 2: 91.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 3: 35.7% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 2/1*

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 8/1

Race 5: 13.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/1 – 40/1 (7/4)

Race 6: 41.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 15/2 – 6/1*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 3 (Cyrname)

Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (We Have A Dream) & 1 (Apples Shakira)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Might Bite), 8 (Tea For Two) & 2 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Cyrus Darius) & 9 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.05): 14 (On The Fringe), 1 (Bainsalow), 9 (Grand Vision) & 20 (Wells De Lune)

Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Kings Socks), 9 (Bun Doran), 10 (Doitforthevillage) & 13 (Baby King)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by BRAIN POWER on this occasion.  Always wishing to impart with the truth however, Nicky’s 6/5 favourite in the race last year (Top Notch) missed out on a Placepot position.  Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last seven years (though no gold medallists in each of the last two years), with Paul having saddled eight winners during the period.  Paul has declared CYRNAME with definite claims, though Colin Tizzard has done his best to stop the ‘warmongers’ making this a two horse event by offering the green light to FINIAN’S OSCAR.

Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (good)

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race three years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader.  Nicky saddled a 4/9 winner twelve months ago and the trainer plays a really strong hand here, having declared both WE HAVE A DREAM and APPLES SHAKIRA.  Nicky’s latter named raider suddenly found himself outpaced having travelled well for a long way in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and it remains to be seen if the addition of a hood will bring about a return to winning form.  Accordingly, I have to lean towards WE HAVE A DREAM, particularly as Nicky swerved the trials and tribulations of Cheltenham, making his gelding a fresher horse in his attempt at landing a nap hand (five successive wins), albeit at the highest level.  If there is a ‘dark horse’ to be aware of in the field, the French raider BEAU GOSSE looks the type to potentially fit the bill.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen contests, with eleven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  Ten winners during the last thirteen years were returned at 13/2 or less.

 

2.50: It remains to be seen if MIGHT BITE had had enough time to recover from his exploits in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which was the thick end of a month ago.  How time flies when the rain pours leading to abandoned meetings!  Thankfully, we have reasonable ground in Liverpool for the Grand National Festival which should ensure that Nicky Henderson’s beaten favourite has, at least, a chance of gaining compensation.  That said, the more I look at the Cheltenham race, the conclusion occurs that the third horse would have beaten Might Bite in another 100 yards whereby an odds on price looks to skinny to take from my viewpoint.  I appreciate his chance from a Placepot perspective however, though last year’s winner TEA FOR TWO and CLAN DES OBEAUX both offer some each way value at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last sixteen years though that said, thirteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.  Four of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame.

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Aintree record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Definitly Red (heavy)

1/1—Might Bite (good)

1/2—Sizing Codelco (good)

1/2—Tea For Two (2 x good)

 

3.25: SUPASUNDAE ran well enough when outpointed in the ‘Stayers’ at Prestbury Park last month but at even money (thereabouts), Jessica Harrington’s raider is easily opposed.  You can readily ignore the 20/1 trade press price about CYRUS DARIUS who could be backed into half of those odds if the current momentum is maintained later this morning.  THE NEW ONE won this event four years ago and looks primed to go close at a track which suits the Twiston-Davies representative.  My Tent Or Yours is another who will run his usual game race, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Only six favourites have won during the last 22 years, though 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:

1/1—Cyrus Darius (good to soft)

1/4—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)

2/5—The New One (2 x good)

 

4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below).  13 of the last 15 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE (beaten at 7/4 in the race twelve months ago), BAINSALOW and GRAND VISION.  If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, WELLS DE LUNE could give you a decent run for your money at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 26 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)

 

4.40: Eleven of the last twelve (and 14 of the last 16) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby KINGS SOCKS, BUN DORAN and DOITFORTHEVILLAGE form my overnight short list.   The reserve nomination is awarded to BABY KING, a stable companion of last year’s beaten (placed) favourite BUN DORAN.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last sixteen contests, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  That said, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.

Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Theinval (good to soft)

1/1—The Flying Portrait (good)

1/1—Baby King (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.15:

1/1—Posh Trish (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 6th April

FONTWELL – APRIL 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £98.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.4% units went through – 8/13* (Win only)

Race 2: 47.5% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3 (11/4)

Race 3: 88.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4, 7/4* & 10/1

Race 4: 17.4% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 (Win only – 5/4 favourite unplaced)

Race 5: 71.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 11/4* & 10/1

Race 6: 23.7% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

 

* THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RACE BY RACE DETAILS RELATING TO YESTERDAY’S MAGNIFICENT £81,874.10 PLACEPOT DIVIDEND AT WOLVERHAMPTON CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOOT OF THIS COLUMN!  - Best of luck today!

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 8 (Kastani Beach), 5 (Goldslinger) & 11 (Dragon Khan)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Wizards Bridge), 4 (Bears Rails) & 3 (Crank Em Up)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Duke Of Kilcorral) & 1 (Larry)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Atlantic Roller), 1 (Clondaw Westie) & 3 (Le Coeur Net)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Present Times), 1 (Kings Lad) & 8 (Norse Legend)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Very Live) & 5 (Burgess Dream)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: Overnight money has arrived for a few ‘outsiders’ in this contest, the pick of which might prove to be KASTANI BEACH and GOLDSLINGER.  DRAGON KHAN is slightly preferred to Be Daring of those towards the head of the market at the time of writing.  The concession of weight might prove too much for Chris Gordon’s raider, despite the useful claim of Harry Reed.  If you fancy a clean sweep for bookmakers in the contest, Welluptoscratch is not without an each way chance.

 

2.35: Colin Tizzard puts a spanner in works having declared both WIZARDS BRIDGE and BEARS RAILS.  The pair are listed in marginal order of preference though with a potential ‘win only’ contest on our hands (in the event of a withdrawal), I’m adding CRANK EM UP into the Placepot mix.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

2/5—Leo Luna (good & heavy)

3/5—Wizards Bridge (Good – soft – heavy)

1/1—Bears Rails (soft)

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3.10: Despite the ground concerns, course winner LARRY demands respect though having gone well on heavy going recently, DUKE OF KILCORRAL is the call. In the absence of any interest in the potential outsiders, Illtellmema looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Larry (good to soft)

 

3.40: Just the three runners have been declared and with Anthony Honeyball saddling the ‘outsider’ of the party here, I’m adding all three declarations into the Placepot mix.  In order of preference, the trio is listed as ATLANTIC ROLLER, CLONDAW WESTIE and LE COEUR NET.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Clondaw Westie (heavy)

1/3—Atlantic Roller (heavy)

 

4.15: As a winner of two of his seven races on heavy ground, PRESENT TIMES is the win and place call in another trappy race on the Fontwell card.  It’s great to have turf racing back in the mix, though I will be relieved to have got through to the last leg if I have survived the minefield thus far. Others aiding and abetting the cause (hopefully) include Colin Tizzard’s value for money pair, KINGS LAD and NORSE LEGEND.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Kings Lad (heavy)

1/8—Occasionally Yours (soft)

 

4.50: VERY LIVE and BURGESS DREAM are the tentative dio to land the Placepot dividend between them, hoping for a few upsets along the way to produce another mind blowing Placepot dividend, as was the case yesterday!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

4/15—Try Catch Me (3 x good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

BREAKDOWN OF THE RACE BY RACE DETAILS RELATING TO YESTERDAY’S MAGNIFICENT £81,874.10 PLACEPOT DIVIDEND AT WOLVERHAMPTON!

Dividend paid: £81,874.10 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced) – Prices of unplaced favourites are listed in brackets - Second highest Placepot dividend in UK history in 40+ years – the bet originated in South Africa:

Race 1: 39.4% units went through – 9/2, 14/1, 9/2 (4/1)

Race 2: 29.2% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 6/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 2/1 * 7/2

Race 4: 32.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 5: 0.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 (Win only – 11/10 favourite unplaced)

Race 6: 8.3% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 9/1 (6/4)

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 5th April

CHELMSFORD – APRIL 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.60 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 33.0% units went through – 16/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 2: 37.9% of the remaining units when through – Evens* & 8/1

Race 3: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 7/1

Race 4: 67.2% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 4/5*

Race 5: 80.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/5* & 11/1

Race 6: 84.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1, 7/1 & 6/1 (5/2)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 3 (Dancing Brave Bear) & 9 (Trump Alexander)

Leg 2 (6.15): 3 (Emigrated), 6 (Sharp Operator) & 2 (The Juggler)

Leg 3 (6.45): 1 (Great Order) & 2 (Keir Hardie)

Leg 4 (7.15): 5 (Ourmullion), 1 (Tom’s Rock) & 3 (Envoy)

Leg 5 (7.45): 1 (Blackheath), 4 (Poet’s Prince) & 3 (Battle Lines)

Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Dark Side Dream) & 1 (Related)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.45: Unless Tamaara turns out to be a well above average type from Roger Varian’s yard, the likes of DANCING BRAVE BEAR and TRUMP ALEXANDER could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  It’s not often I would opt for an Ed Vaughan raider over one from the Archie Watson camp but DANCING BRAVE BEAR could be anything after just the one start, especially hailing from Street Cry stock.

Favourite factor: The opening race is a new race on the card.

 

6.15: EMIGRATED looks a tad too big at 11/2 in a place this morning, given that Derek Shaw’s raider comes to the gig on a hat trick.  Derek saddled six winners during the month of March, stats which Derek has only equalled once during the last five years.  Others to consider include SHARP OPERATOR and THE JUGGLER.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Chelmsford programme.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

2/12—Outlaw Tom

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1/4—The Juggler

1/5—Tilsworth Lukey

1/7—Sharp Operator

 

6.45: GREAT ORDER represents Saeed bin Suroor who has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.  We can expect Saeed to step up his runners this side of Asia now and this should be something of a penalty kick for GREAT ORDER in this grade/company.  Similarly, KEIR HARDIE looks the obvious forecast call.

Favourite factor: Disappointingly, this is third consecutive new race on the card.

 

7.15: The record of OURMULLION below confirms his name in my Placepot permutation as you might have expected, though the inclusion of ENVOY in the mix might surprise you.  Ryan Tate’s mount scored at the first time of asking last season, whilst trainer James Eustace has won with two of his last five runners.  TOM’S ROCK completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ event.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (winner of the relevant event last year at 15/8) has secured a Placepot position thus far.

Record of the course winner in the four event:

3/7--Ourmullion

 

7.45: BATTLE LINES looks booked for third spot but that said, I’m finding it difficult to ignore his chance entirely in this four runner ‘win only’ event.  The likely gold medallists however are BLACKHEATH and POET’S PRINCE who are preferred in the order as listed despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s first named raider is a firm favourite at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by snaring gold and silver medals to date.

 

8.15: SUMMERGHAND is the each way call in the contest, though more obvious winners in the line up include DARK SIDE DREAM and RELATED.  If you are chasing losses (never recommended by this columnist), you could do worse than have a small saver on Mont Kiara on Thursday.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/9 market leader followed the complete demise of the first two favourites.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/15—Upavon

1/9—Dark Side Dream

1/4—Merhoob

1/1--Summerghand

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card:

1/6—Marshall Aid

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

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1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 29th March

WETHERBY – MARCH 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £49.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 64.7% units went through – 11/4, 11/4 & 8/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 33.9% of the remaining units when through – 4/1, 14/1 & 5/1 (5/6)

Race 3: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 & 9/4 (15/8)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 70.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/2*, 13/2 & 10/1

Race 6: 64.1% of the units secured the dividend – 8/11* (Win only contest)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Pirate Look) & 2 (Cosy Club)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Away For Slates) & 2 (Rock Of Leon)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Caraline), 5 (Uno Valeroso) & 7 (Glance Back)

Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Isle Of Ewe), 10 (Cash To Ash) & 14 (Allfredandnobell)

Leg 5 (4.15): 1 (Bob Mahler) & 3 (Rhaegar)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Goodtoknow), 1 (Blakemount) & 3 (Silver Hassle)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: A poor start to the meeting, suffice to say that two ‘ordinary’ looking horses such as PIRATE LOOK and COSY CLUB should be able to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Those comments about the opening race should tell you all you need to know, especially as the exchange ‘betting’ suggests that it is 25/1 bar the market leaders at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (5/2) favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth behind runners which filled the frame at 11/4 (twice) and 8/1.

 

2.30: Another two horse race in the offing with AWAY FOR SLATES and ROCK OF LEON seemingly having little (or nothing) to fear from their rivals.  The pair are just about listed in order of preference, though whether the differential of (best) prices at the time of writing should be in place in open to debate, namely 2/5 and 5/2 respectively.

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Favourite factor: I am a little surprised that the Placepot ‘only’ paid £49.50 last year as four of the favourites (see details above) finished out of the money, including the inaugural 5/6 market leader in this event.

 

3.05: Canny trainer Micky Hammond saddles three of the ‘dead eight’ declarations and bookmakers are already trying to protect their each way liabilities having cut stable representative CARALINE to 5/1 in places, with 9/2 possibly in the offing soon I’ll wager, just to stop punters having their ‘bets to nothing’ when ignoring the win perspective.  Dual course winner CARALINE has finished ‘in the three’ in four of his five starts at the venue for good measure.  Others of interest include UNO VALEROSO and GLANCE BACK.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 15/8 market leader finished out with the washing following the victory of the inaugural favourite at odds of 5/4.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

2/5—Caraline (soft & heavy)

1/1—Applaus (soft)

 

3.40: Wake up trainers because although six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far (including two of the last three with a representation of 32%), vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that ISLE OF EWE should take the beating in this grade/company, especially as Tom Lacey’s runners are enjoying a great run of form just now with five of his last six raiders having won!  The each way threat to Tom and his team here is CASH TO ASH from my viewpoint, whilst connections of ALLFREDANDNOBELL will point to the fact that his only victory from 24 assignments thus far was posted at this venue.

Favourite factor: One clear and one joint favourite have prevailed via seven contests thus far, whilst just three of the eight market leaders in total have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the fourth event:

2/6—Lough Salt (good & good to soft)

1/9—Forty Crown (soft)

1/3—Allfredandnobell (good to soft)

 

4.15: The betting movements of BOB MAHLER this morning make for interesting reading because although the projected favourite is as short as 4/6 on some boards, Richard Johnson’s mount is almost an even money chance on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Whichever way you interpret those conflicting odds, I’m adding RHAEGAR into the equation, especially with Kim Bailey and David Bass having teamed up to such fine effect this season.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market duly obliged in what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

4.45: GOOD TO KNOW will be staying on when others have cried enough from my viewpoint, especially with Richard Johnson in the saddle.  SILVER TASSLE and BLAKEMOUNT are others to put into the melting pot in a race which could be contested in poor conditions by the time that the starter drops his flag.  More rain is expected to reach the Wetherby area before racing has finished this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The two (7/2 and 3/1) favourites have both secured Placepot positions thus far by gaining gold and silver medals respectively.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Blakemount (good to soft)

1/4—Goodtoknow (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd March

LUDLOW – MARCH 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.90 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.9% units went through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 2: 90.4% of the remaining units when through – 1/10* (Win only)

Race 3: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 13/8

Race 4: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 19.3 % of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 14/1 (4/5* unplaced)

Race 6: 71.6% of the units secured the dividend – 4/6* & 3/1

 

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 1 (Michael’s Mount) & 7 (Veiled Secret)

Leg 2 (3.00): 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 3 (3.35): 1 (Dans Le Vent), 2 (Silver Kayf) & 6 (Stage Summit)

Leg 4 (4.10): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 2 (Space Oddity) & 1 (Just Cameron)

Leg 5 (4.45): 2 (Opening Batsman), 1 (Grandioso) & 5 (Tugboat)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Birch Hill), 1 (Night Of Sin) & 7 (Awake At Midnight)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.30: The connections of MICHAEL’S MOUNT and VEILED SECRET could hardly have wished for a better outcome here and the pair look set to lock horns on the turn into the home straight.  The pair are listed in order of preference, fully expecting the third horse to pass the jamstick ten seconds or more behind the main protagonists.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions but that said, we had to wait until last year’s 2/9 market scored to break the favourite hoodoo from a win perspective.

 

3.00: All three win only races on the last year’s Placepot card were won by favourites at odds of 10/11, 2/9 & 1/10 and TREE OF LIBERTY looks like being sent off at an even shorter price this time around! Contrasting stats relating to trainer Kerry Lee can be found at the foot of the column today.  Kerry’s soft ground course and distance winner cannot be opposed, especially as the ground will still be ‘tacky’ at this stage of the afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/10 market leader duly obliged by five lengths.

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Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Tree Of Liberty (soft)

 

3.35: The Ludlow Executive will be pleased that this new event has attracted a number of leading trainers, though ‘bit parts’ are only conspicuous by their absence if you will excuse my phrasing.  Jamie Snowden (saddles course winner DANS LE VENT) has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2018, boasting a 26% strike rate via ten winners which is a great reward for a trainer which still (surprisingly) has to attract his fair share of inmates from my viewpoint.  SILVER KAYF and STAGE SUMMIT appear to be the potential jokers in the pack if Jamie and his team are to be denied here, the yard having secured a 35/1 double with their only two runners (at Haydock) yesterday.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good)

 

4.10: Although TORNADO IN MILAN ‘only’ boasts a 22% strike rate down the years, the fact remains that the ratio covers nine victories, whilst the Evan Williams inmate had secured an additions sixteen medals, eleven of which were of the silver variety. Richard Johnson takes only his eighth ride for the trainer during the last five years and as all of those assignment were recorded this season, the champion jockey will be anxious to land his first success for the yard this afternoon.  For the record, the trainer/jockey bandwagon only teams up once this afternoon.  Harry Fry has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect whereby his seven-year-old raider SPACE ODDITY might prove to be the main threat to the selection this afternoon, providing he does not unseat his partner, as was the case the last day in a two horse event!

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/11 market leader brought favourite backers some relief following the complete demise of the previous three jollies who had failed to claim a Placepot position between them.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/6—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)

 

4.45: TUGBOAT might be a 16/1 chance via the trade press quote this morning but it’s worth noting that two of his last three victories (six in total) have been gained here at Ludlow.  Not too many Hunter Chase events compete for the ‘Gold Cup’ at the respective venues but that is the case here and being a ‘spring horse’ (it is officially spring after all – could have fooled me), OPENING BATSMAN is a worthy favourite, even though his strike rate has plummeted down the years.  A winner of 5/9 races in March/April to date, it looks like being a ‘drying day’ at Ludlow this afternoon which could bring about his preferred good to soft conditions by flag fall which would be an added bonus.  GRANDIOSO (like Tugboat) has a chance to prove he in no back number just yet in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: None of the 4/5, 6/4 & 9/4 favourites have managed to add to the winning tally set by the inaugural winning 9/4 market leader four years ago.  Indeed, only the 6/4 favourite managed to add an additional Placepot position to the haul on behalf of the market leaders, which is unusual in Hunter Chase events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/4—Grandioso (soft)

1/2—Opening Batsman (good to soft)

1/1—Mr Mercurial (soft)

2/5—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

5.15: Philip Hobbs is still struggling to leave behind an extremely poor set of results this winter by his high standards.  Indeed, Philip’s last fourteen runners have all been beaten whereby AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT can only be offered a Placepot chance which would not have been the case had Philip been firing in all cylinders.  One trainer’s loss is another’s gain as the saying goes, whereby Sophie Leech (BIRCH HILL) and Nick Williams (NIGHT OF SIN) might prove to be the main beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stats for Ludlow on Thursday:

It’s unfortunate that Tree Of Liberty is being quoted as a 1/33 chance in places this morning as trainer Kerry Lee boasts stats of 8/36 at the track in recent years.

That said, Kerry’s ratio since the turn of the year stands at 7/61 (a poor return by her standards) whereby the ‘mortgage’ money might best be left where it is at present.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 15th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £58.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 87.4% units went through – 6/4*, 7/2 & 4/1

Race 2: 26.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1, 16/1, 9/1 & 66/1 (8/1)

Race 3: 43.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 8/1 & 40/1

Race 4: 67.9% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 5/6*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 14/1, 10/1, 10/1 7/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 56.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 12/1 & 20/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 4 (Invitation Only) & 10 (Shattered Love)

Leg 2 (2.10): 12 (Sort It Out), 17 (Forza Milan), 19 (Protek Des Flos) & 13 (Delta Work)

Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Un De Sceaux) & 6 (Frodon)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Unowhatimeanharry), 3 (L’Ami Serge) & 2 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.10): 16 (Kings Socks), 20 (Guitar Pete), 21 (Willie Boy) & 18 (Midnight Shot)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Marias Benefit) & 2 (Laurina)

 

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: 11 of the 21 Placepot positions have been claimed by seven-year-olds, statistics which include five (20/1--7/1--4/1—4/1*** & 6/4) winners.  INVITATION ONLY and SHATTERED LOVE are the vintage representatives which jump of the page, with KEMBOY offered up as a lively outsider to consider if you want to take on the shorter priced selections.  TERREFORT in the other horse in the field which could potentially win the event from my viewpoint, though I’m sticking with the vintage stats, just for a change!

Favourite factor: A changing scenario to the terms and conditions of this event means that we have just seven renewals to take into account.  Six of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, three of which won their relevant events at 6/4 (twice) & 4/1***.

 

2.10: 11 of the last 14 winners of the 'Pertempts' have carried 11-4 or less, statistics which eliminate three of the 24 runners this time around.  SORT IT OUT, FORZA MILAN, PROTEK DES FLOS and DELTA WORK are offered against the remaining 20 contenders, the pick of which might prove to be Glenloe.

Favourite factor: Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 14 years (one winner), which from an each way perspective in a fiercely competitive hurdle event, is particularly important for the layers.  Going back further in time, it's worth noting that just two market leaders has prevailed during the last 21 years.

 

2.50: You will be in a much better position to assess this event (particularly from a Placepot perspective) when an official comment is made about the possible participation of DOUVAN who fell yesterday when going well in the ‘Queen Mother’.  Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I’m opting for FRODON to accompany UN DE SCEAUX in my permutation because if I offer stable companion Douvan into the mix and he is withdrawn, the units will be transferred onto to the favourite which I already have on  my side.  FRODON offers some value for money in the contest anyway, with Paul Nicholls finally making a challenge this week in terms of his number of entries. I would be shouting louder that most if Cue Card returns to his best form but he had a mighty tough race at Ascot the last day and this might prove to be a race too far this winter, given his advancing years.

Favourite factor: Four of the last six favourites have won whilst eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

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3.30: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY was beaten at odds of 5/6 in this event last year and up until the recent rain/snow arrived, I had put a line through his name but market support over the last few days has intensified whereby I now believe that ‘Harry’ could become involved in the finish again.  The ground might have gone against THE NEW ONE, not necessarily because Nigel’s grand servant cannot handle such conditions but over this type of trip, he remains an unknown quantity.  My heart is ruling my head by including the old boy from a Placepot perspective alongside L’AMI SERGE who looks a tad too big in the betting at 12/1, odds which are generally available at the time of writing.  Wholestone receives the reserve nomination at around the 20/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 25 market leaders—9 winners—8 placed—8 unplaced.  First three in betting: 69 representatives—16 winners—23 placed—30 unplaced.

 

4.10: Known for many years as the 'Mildmay of Flete', this event takes on a ‘new’ name these days though whatever titles are prefixed to contests at the meeting, trainers still target their horses for the respective events the same way. Although eight-year-olds have 'only' won five of the last 19 renewals, win and place investors should consider that vintage representatives have secured 31 of the 65 available place positions during the study period.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have claimed just three victories and eleven place positions, leaving horses lower down the handicap to run riot.  Putting the stats and facts together I’ll offer a short list of KINGS SOCKS, GUITAR PETE, WILLIE BOY and MIDNIGHT SHOT.  Some money was developing in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for King’s Odyssey at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite (six years ago) has obliged since 1999, whilst ‘recent’ winners having included those returned at 66/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-25/1-18/1—16/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.  That said, eight of the 15 market leaders during the study period finished in the frame.

 

4.50: Willie Mullins has won both renewals and LAURINA is likely to be another Odds on chance for the trainer, despite Ruby Walsh missing out on the ride (through injury) this time around.  There is much to be said for offering fancied horses in the last leg of our favourite bet, especially at the bigger meetings.  We can lay off at extremely short prices in place terms if we have reached the final leg safely, if the ‘Pot’ is looking as though it will pay a decent dividend.  That is not the only reason for adding MARIAS BENEFIT into the equation however, because I firmly believe that the six-year-old will give the favourite a real run for her money.  CAP SOLEIL easily appeals as the alternative (each way) selection of you are looking to take on the shorter priced contenders.

Favourite factor: Willie Mullins trained favourites have won the two renewals at odds of 11/8 & 8/11.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Thursday:

11 runners—Willie Mullins

8—Paul Nicholls

8—Nigel Twiston-Davies

7—Nicky Henderson

7—Colin Tizzard

6—Gordon Elliott

5—Henry De Bromhead

4—Warren Greatrex

3—Harry Fry

3—Philip Hobbs

3—David Pipe

3—Venetia Williams

+ 50 different trainers who each saddle just one or two runners on the card

118 declared runners (120 last year)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hexham: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £17.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 laced – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th March

PLUMPTON – MARCH 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £53.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Larry) & 1 (Dell Oro)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Ramore Will), 3 (Le Coeur Net) & 4 (Lillington)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Ballyheigue Bay), 6 (Amberjam) & 2 (Pop Rockstar)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Iconic Sky), 5 (Molly Carew) & 3 (Jubilympics)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sounds Of Italy) & 3 (Black Franks Angel)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Lubatic) & 4 (King Cnut)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners have been sent off at a top price of 11/4 (see further stats below).  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six recent renewals, though Gary Moore has tilted the potential balance in favour of the five-year-olds this time around by having declared LARRY and DELL ORO (both vintage representatives) on this occasion.  The trade press quote of even money and 7/1 in favour of the latter named raider is not working out in the dead of night, with LARRY being the marginal market leader at the time of writing. All of that said, Gary will be mindful that Seaston Spirit is a heavy ground winner who might yet split the pair on the run to the line at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 favourites have won, though four of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by horses which were sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1—11/4--13/8.

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and with RAMORE WILL representing Chris Gordon who won with all of his five runners on the corresponding day last year (946/1 accumulator), I cannot leave the top weight out of the mix, despite the fact that faster ground would have been preferable.  I should (perhaps) remind readers that I flagged up Chris’s runners last year before he snared the five-timer. Others of interest here include LE COEUR NET and LILLINGTON.

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites).  Four of the other eight market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Ramore Will (good)

1/3—Le Coeur Lad (soft)

1/16—Sir Hubert (heavy)

 

3.20: 15/2 about POP ROCKSTAR looks a tad big in a place this morning, albeit I prefer the chance of BALLYHEIGUE BAY despite the fact that seven pound claimer Harry Reed will have to be at his ‘calculating best’ if Chris Gordon’s raider makes the running as was the case at Ascot over a shorter trip the last day.  AMBERJAM might make BALLYHEIGUE BAY pull out all the stops close home.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft & soft)

3/8—Tambura ( 2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/3—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

 

3.50: Lucy Wadham boasts definite claims of a potential double on the card via her two runners, with ICONIC SKY rounding off Lucy’s afternoon having saddled Amberjam in the previous contest.  That said, Lucy will have done her homework which will have informed her that both MOLLY CAREW and JUBILYMPICS have won under these conditions in the past.  LOVES DESTINATION is another to consider in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

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2/6—Loves Destination (soft & heavy)

4/13—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/6—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

 

4.20: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last twelve renewals during the last thirteen years.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests; so why then (trainers) are vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around?   Upwards and onwards in positive mode (I guess) by suggesting that eight-year-old BACK FRANKS ANGEL could be the each way call in the short field contest, though SOUNDS OF ITALY is a more logical winner via the form book.  The Lion Dancer (Charlie Mann saddled the winner last year) is the other plausible winner in the field from my viewpoint.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 29 of the 32 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less.  Five of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 10-12 and the pick of this year’s four ‘qualifiers’ will hopefully prove to be LUBATIC and KING CNUT.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals split the last two winning favourites in this event (10/3 last year and 6/4 in 2008) albeit eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 13/2.  Only two of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, not that this was a Placepot event on last year’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Chris Gordon (4/29 – loss of 2 points) – 24/156 +19

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/5) – 5/26 – loss of 2

3—Gary Moore (13/58 +6) – 56/276 – loss of 12

2—Lawney Hill (1/5 +1) – 7/33 +12

2—Ron Hodges (First runners here this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (4/18 – loss of 8) – 17/58 – loss of 10

2—Neil King (2/14 – loss of 5) – 10/69 – loss of 28

2—Neil Mulholland (5/19 – marginal loss) – 12/74 – loss of 12

2—Seamus Mullins (2/19 – loss of 3) – 14/129 – loss of 53

2—Richard Rowe (1/9 – loss of 3) – 6/64 – loss of 30

2—Lucy Wadham (1/4 – level profit/loss this term) – 2/20 – loss of 14

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Stratford: £98.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Taunton: No corresponding meeting on the Monday of Cheltenham week

Chelmsford: £43.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 10 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £317.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Shambra), 3 (Royal Zanzibar) & 5 (Erik Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Al Shahir), 8 (The Dubai Way) & 9 (Notre Ami)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Whatswrongwithyou), 13 (Friday Night Light) & 8 (Highway One O One)

Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Posh Trish) & 7 (Queens Cave)

Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Tanit River) & 2 (Pete The Feat)

Leg 6 (4.10): 4 (The Last But One), 3 (Silverhow) & 1 (Rayvin Black)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: There is some realistic positive money emerging for ERIK LE ROUGE on the exchanges at the time of writing, whilst it’s worth noting that Nick Williams (for once in his life) has declared more runners on the card than any other trainer.  I’ll wager that Nick will gain a winner somewhere down the line but whether it is in the first event remains to be seen.  Certainly on the form book, the likes of SHAMBRA and recent soft ground winner ROYAL ZANZIBAR should be there or thereabouts turning for home.

Favourite factor: Three one of the five favourites to date (winners at 5/2 & Evens included) have secured Placepot positions to date.

 

1.50: Six-year-olds have won fourteen contests during the last twenty years (including ten of the last fourteen) and with eight of the eighteen declarations hailing from the vintage, six-year-olds are 5/4 mark to land the spoils before form is taken into consideration.  I’m opting for AL SHAHIR and THE DUBAI WAY this time around. Nick Gifford holds a leading chance in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival on Wednesday and there will be worse outsiders on todays’ card than heavy ground course winner NOTRE AMI I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five of the other eighteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in second event:

1/1—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: I’m duty bound to report that twelve of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less (as have 39 of the last 55 win and placed horses) which eliminates most of the field this time around.  The top two horses in the market have both won with plenty of moisture in the ground, whereby WHATSWRONGWITHYOU and FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT have to be respected.  That said, six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests and with Chris Gordon having held two entries on the card for HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, I am duty bound to stand by the trainer who landed one of my finest days in memory when scoring with all five runners on the Monday before Cheltenham last year, something I had ‘offered’ to my followers before the trainer pulled of his nigh 1,000/1 accumulator!  HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has not raced on ground this deep but there was plenty to like about his soft ground Boxing Day win the last day.  Charis has secured one gold and five silver medals via his last seven runners for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged during the last eighteen years, though just three of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Imperial Cup:

2/2—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the fourteen contests and the pick of this year’s seven relevant raiders will hopefully prove to be POSH TRISH and QUEENS CAVE.  The ‘dark horse’ in the field however is undoubtedly URCA DE LIMA and I truly wish that I had enough room for Anthony Honeyball’s raider to be included in my permutation.  What I suggest (above) and what I ultimately do however, is another matter entirely!  I am aware (as always I hope) of different budgets affecting each one us, especially with Cheltenham around the corner.

Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, whilst we had to wait until 2012 for the first (and only) successful (2/1) market leader to emerge.

 

3.35:  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more and that figure will probably be increased this year with six of the seven runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend.  Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby TANIT RIVER is the first name on the team sheet, especially having won on his only start at Sandown over the distance on soft ground.  PETE THE FEAT was a little disappointing at Exeter the last day but having won 4/14 on heavy ground and loving every inch of this Esher circuit, I think it’s worth giving the old boy another chance in this grade/company.  Last year’s winner Shanroe Sands will find the ground much softer on this occasion I fancy.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last twenty years, whilst 13/23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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1/3—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/7—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Tanit River (soft)

 

4.10: A ‘win only’ Placepot finale which temps fate with yours truly including three of the four runners from a Placepot viewpont.  Listed in order of preference, the trio is named as THE LAST BUT ONE, SILVERHOW and RAYVIN BLACK.  Readers are asked to organise ‘British queues’ outside bookmaker outlets this morning as they strive to get on the horse I have left out of the equation, namely Diamant Bleu!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/2—Silverhow (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more on the Sandown card on Saturday:

5 runners—Nick Williams

3—Nicky Henderson

3—Charlie Longsdon

3—Oliver Sherwood

3—Colin Tizzard

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Lucy Wadham

+ 46 different trainers who saddled two or less….

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £349.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Hereford: £29.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £200.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £119.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2018

Friday's Result :

4.10 Lingfield : Take The Helm @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Our 3rd attempt to start the new month comes via Saturday's...

7.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 6f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7,310 to the winner...

Why?

More on this in due course...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.25pm on |Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!