SANDOWN – MAY 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)
Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*
Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1
Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)
Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)
Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)
Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)
Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)
Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)
Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)
Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.
Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.
Record of the two course winners in the opening race:
1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)
6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009. Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around. Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already. Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week. Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.
Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years. These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins. Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes:
1/1—Petrus (good to firm)
7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented. John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight. David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.
8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them. Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests. LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon. Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further. Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered. Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale. Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.
Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:
3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)
1/1—First Selection (good)
1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.