Chelmsford racecourse | geegeez.co.uk

Tix Picks, Thursday 19/12/24

19 December 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's racing comes from Chelmsford, Exeter, Ffos Las & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Chelmsford...

...and we'll follow the money to Essex for six races on the standard polytrack at Chelmsford beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 4.10...Blue Lakota seems to have got the hang of things recently, finishing 221 in three handicap starts on the A/W so far after showing very little in three turf novice races. Was more than four lengths clear at Newcastle last time out and should be the one to beat here. Bank On Kent has also been solid in nurseries, although not to the same extent. He's now a 9-race maiden, but has finished in the first three in three of six handicaps and was less than two lengths down when third of seven over course and distance last time out.

Frankies Dream ran better than sixth of seven might suggest at Wolverhampton four weeks ago. Truth is that he was only beaten by a length and a half after a slow start in a tight race. He'll wear a hood today and that will hopefully help him get away a bit sharper. Mister Coco Fizz also ran in that same race at Wolverhampton and also started slowly, but managed to finish as runner-up, beaten by just a short head, just failing to reel the winner in. He started slowly again at Lingfield next/last time out and you just can't get away with that here at Chelmsford. He makes a yard debut in a first-time tongue tie today and hopefully the new handlers will have worked on his starts!

My 1-2 here would be (1) Blue Lakota and (2) Bank On Kent, to which I'll add (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2 @ 4.40...Preanka was withdrawn early this morning, reducing my over night shortlist to just three runners here. (6) Antalya was a solid third of fourteen on debut here five weeks ago, overcoming a wide draw (stall 12) to grab a place late on. Drawn better today and dropping down a furlong, she should be in the mix again. (10) Sixteen One was unlucky to be touched off by a head at Leicester on debut back in July and didn't seem to stay 7f out at Lingfield three months ago. She had enough about her for the market to deem her as favourite and she's a half-sister to Silent Move who is a 3-time Class 4 winner over 7f/1m.

(12) Sunlit Uplands was also poorly drawn on her only previous run to date when sent off at 8/1 from stall 11 of 11 over this course and distance seven weeks ago. She made steady progress after a shaky start and despite having to switch out late on, still managed to finish second just a short head behind the winner. A similar run probably wins this race today and she'd be my first choice, but I'm taking all three shortlisted runners from this one.

Leg 3 @ 5.10...Brightandbeautiful has been slowly improving and although she was fairly well beaten at Southwell last time out, she did manage to make the frame at 100/1 on a 10-runner contest. She'll go off much shorter here and could well place again today. Crest Of Light put his indifferent maiden/novice form behind him when finishing second of seven over a mile at Southwell on handicap debut nine days ago, going down by just three quarters of a length, having been headed inside the final furlong, so the drop back in trip might just help him go one better.

Thiscouldbefun is still a maiden after 8 starts, but her A/W form reads 363, all in handicaps, one on Tapeta, one on soft ground and then on polytrack last time out when beaten by just over two lengths in a 1m Class 4 handicap at Kempton. A drop in trip and class are positives here and she should be involved. Rotation is one of just two former winners in this field, having won a 6f seller at Leicester in July. His most recent effort same him finish 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton over 6f, doing his best work late on. He was only beaten by two lengths in the end and he'll probably relish the extra furlong here. Chuti Manika was third day and has raced into third again since.

(6) Crest Of Light is my first choice here and although I've little to separate the other three on my notes, I'll also take (2) Brightandbeautiful and (8) Rotation at the expense of Thiscouldbefun here.

Leg 4 @ 5.40...A decent size field (13 runners) for this, which is good to see, but it's surely a two-horse race between (1) Port Light and (2) Rajeko in card order?

Port Light won a Class 5, 1m maiden at Southwell on debut and was more comfortable than the margin of a neck might seem on paper. He carries a penalty for that win, of course and isn't ideally drawn in stall 13 of 13, but the manner of his debut run suggests there's more to come. Rajeko also won on debut, landing a Class 4 Novice race over 6f at Windsor back in June, also staying on to won by a neck. He has failed to make the frame in two starts since, but defeats at Group 2 & 3 aren't that relevant to his chances in a Class 4 Novice, but suffice to say he was only three lengths down in the Gr 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, half a length behind Aomori City who has since won a Group 2 and lost a Group 1 by less than four lengths.

Both of these go on my ticket, of course. Of the others, (4) English Lady is the sole winner, whilst (8) Ravens King has place form.

English Lady overcame a slow start to win a 14-runner maiden here at Chelmsford over 7f on debut five weeks ago and whilst this is a tougher race over further and carrying a penalty, she does at least have experience of winning a race. Ravens King is possibly slightly flattered by the bare result of third of ten runners in a Class 5, 1m maiden at Lingfield on his sole outing 16 days ago. The truth is that he was 11 lengths behind the first two home and only a similar distance clear of the horse back in 9th place. That said, you can only compete against what's in the race with you and he beat 7 of 9 opponents and the runner-up has been a Class 3 runner-up since.

Despite all that, I prefer English Lady as my backup.

Leg 5 @ 6.10...Kessaar Power wasn't great here over course and distance last time out, but had been a runner-up in each of his two previous outings (both here) and was a C&D winner in late October and if setting that last run aside, could well be the one to beat. Kitaro Kich is still a maiden after thirteen attempts, but produced what is probably his best effort to date when fourth of eleven here a fortnight ago. He was bumped early and got carried right in the closing stages but was staying on and could well get closer back up in trip.

Glencalvie won over course and distance back in February and also over this trip at Yarmouth in April and although not in the best of form of late, this looks a fairly poor race. so he's not out of it entirely. Reel Power made good progress in the summer of 2023, winning over a mile at Brighton before finishing second of twelve in a Windsor handicap. He was then off the track for 400 days and looked rusty on his return finishing last of ten back at Brighton over 1m2f in October, but was a very creditable third of ten over a mile at Kempton next/last time out, beaten by just a length and three quarters in a race where the horses placed 1st, 5th and 6th have all raced and won since.

My 1-2 here would be (1) Kessaar Power & (7) Reel Power and I think I marginally prefer (2) Kitaro Kich over Glencalvie. That said, the latter might well go off at a big price and with bookies paying four places here, he could still be a viable E/W bet.

Leg 6 @ 6.40...Bo Taifan won over C&D 7 starts/3 months ago and alonst took advantage of a falling mark when second of ten at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He was headed close to the line and was beaten by just half a length. Dubai Harbour went one better and won at Lingfield last time out, getting home by a neck holding on gamely over 1m2f. he's up 2lbs for that win, but will appreciate the drop back in trip.

Reverberation is the veteran of some 90 previous races but still looks in good nick at 9yo, coming here off the back of finishing 3rd of 13 over 1m2f at this track a week ago in a race he incidentally won last year and whilst not getting any younger, has a win and five places from nine starts this year. Rising Force was 3rd of 12 over C&D in mid-November and backed that up with a C&D win by more than two lengths last time out. He won pulling clear, so there was probably more to come, suggesting that a 5lb rise might not stop him.

Forever Proud completes my shortlist and she has made the frame in 7 of 15 this year so far, winning twice. She faded late on over 1m2f here a fortnight ago, but was 3rd of 11 on her last run over today's trip, whilst her last win came off a mark 2lbs higher than today.

Five to consider, but my 1-2-3 is going to be (6) Rising Force, (2) Dubai Harbour & (5) Reverberation.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Blue Lakota, (2) Bank On Kent & (6) Mister Coco Fizz

Leg 2: (6) Antalya, (10) Sixteen One & (12) Sunlit Uplands

Leg 3: (2) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Crest Of Light & (8) Rotation

Leg 4: (1) Port Light, (2) Rajeko & (4) English Lady

Leg 5: (1) Kessaar Power, (2) Kitaro Kich & (7) Reel Power

Leg 6: (2) Dubai Harbour, (5) Reverberation & (6) Rising Force

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24

3 October 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

*

The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.

Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart

(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.

Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.

And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...

...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.

Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...

Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...

The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.

We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...

...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.

Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...

A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.

Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.

As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.

(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.

I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...

Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.

Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...

Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.

The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...

...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...

Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham

Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford

Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream

Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!

Tix Picks, Thursday 19/09/24

19 September 2024/in Tix Picks/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chelmsford, Pontefract and Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've not had any A/W action for a while, so let's head to Chelmsford, where the going on the Polytrack is (as usual) declared to be standard and our placepot races are...

Leg 1 : 4.20 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f

After the withdrawal of Laser Focus, The Bay Warrior now remains as the sole LTO winner in the field, although Silver Nightfall has made the frame in both of her last two starts, as has Platnum Prince and both of these LTO placers are down in class today, as are Speriamo, Lennys Spirit and Awtaad Prince.

The 11 yr old Stormingin might be coming towards the closing stages of his career, but has finished 124 in his last 3 runs on the A/W, includibng a win and a runner-up finish here over course and distance and his place record over the last two years is impressive...

...whilst most of the field also have some decent numbers behind them. Lenny's Spirit looks the weakest at 8lbs higher than his last win and a 0/6 record on standard going. Platinum Prince is interestingly 2lbs lower than his own last win and in stall 3, he seems well drawn according to the PRB3 scores, which also look good for Silver Nightfall and Stormingin...

That said, it's usually pace that wins the race here at Chelmsford, but this looks like it might well be a falsely run affair with little real pace early on, although Silver Nightfall might take it on, based on her last two runs..

I've struggled with race 1 these last few days and with the amateur jockeys also creating some uncertainty for me, I'm takjng three runners here; Silver Nightfall, Platinum Prince and Stormingin.

Leg 2 : 4.55 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Thisismydream has been in the first three home in seven of his twelve starts this year, winning twice. Hi Hoh Tonto was third last time out, whilst former course and distance winner Lion Ring was third two starts ago before winning last time out.

The Defiant won over course and distance back in March and comes back into focus here as he drops in class after three top-3 finishes in his last five outings and at 5lbs below that last win, he scores pretty well on Instant Expert...

...as do Spanish Angel and Agostino amongst others and from the above, I'm most interested in...

...whose pace scores are as follows...

...leaving me with four to pick from. I don't want to take four here if truth be told and Agostino will have to miss out on form. I hope that omission doesn't return to haunt me, but I'm taking Thisismydream, The Defiant & Lion Ring here.

Leg 3 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f

We highlighted Saint Riquier at Brighton two days ago where he failed to land his hat-trick and although he'll go off short again here, he might not be a clearcut selection today, as plenty of his rivals are running well too, especially Kinetic (2111 in her last four) and Standbackandlook (2113 in his last four) with both receiving an 8lb allowance here as 3 yr olds.

I think it has to be this trio vs the field and of these three, only Standbackandlook has raced over this trip, finishing third at Nottingham and winning twice at Wolverhampton, so Standbackandlook is definitely in for me here and from a value/last run perspective, I'll also take Kinetic over Saint Riquier.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

The fast finishing Q Twenty Boy's win here over 5f three starts (and five weeks) ago is the only win registered by any of this field in their last seven races, but Blue Collar Lad and Don't Fight It were both runners-up in their most recent outings. Q Twenty Boy is also a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year.

The pace chart favours these runners...

...with two of our more 'in-form runners' featured, whilst both Blue Collar Lad and Q Twenty Boy feature well on Instant Expert.

Blue Collar Lad is also drawn in the preferred lower half of the draw, so we're taking him along with possible outsiders Q Twenty Boy and Don't Fight It for a three-pronged attack for this one.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

My initial shortlist here on form was Doves of Peace (6 top-3 finishes from 8), Cut To The Chase (placed in each of her last two), whilst fast finisher Comedian Leader, Maverick Style and Irrelevant were also in the frame on their last run. Of these Maverick Style and Cut To The Chase are both 3 yr olds, so receive a 5lbs weight allowance, which could be more than handy.

Of those mentioned above, only Maverick Style has a lower half draw, although Comedian Leader is only in stall 7 of 12. Instant Expert suggests we focus upon these runners...

...which pretty much backs up where I'm at, so I just need to stick my neck out and make a selection, as any three from those seven could easily fill the frame today. Doves of Peace and Cut To The Chase look hard to ignore from Instant Expert, but I think I'll also take a chance on Back from Dubai. He's drawn low kin stall 1 and likes to race prominently, so he could be better than his odds might suggest.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

The second division of the above race has no LTO winners, but Twitch was a runner-up, as was Capallcliste for the second race in a row, whilst Tilsworth Max finished third. Both Twitch and Tilsworth Max were racing over course and distance when placed too.

Dashing Donkey is also of interest with a 3lb weight allowance; he has won two of his last four starts and although not ideally drawn in stall 11, looks like he might be the pace in the race...

and I think I'll take Dashing Donkey along with Twitch and Capallcliste.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 7 & 8

Leg 2: horses 1, 7 & 10

Leg 3: horses 6 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 2, 3 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/06/24

19 June 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Apologies for the lack of a post for Wednesday's racing, I was up in the Troodos mountains all day/evening with no signal. There'll also be no column for Friday's racing, as I'll be making my way back home from Cyprus on Thursday.

As for Thursday's racing, did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

3.20 Ripon
3.45 Ascot
4.10 Chelmsford
6.00 Wolverhampton
7.50 Leopardstown

Obviously the Ribblesdale at Ascot is the ‘best’ race on that list, but there are others here on Geegeez better qualified to assess a race of such magnitude (and I’m sure they already have or are about to!), so I’ll switch my focus to Essex, where there’s a reasonable-looking (on paper, at least) handicap in the shape of the 4.10 Chelmsford, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack …

We have two LTO winners in this field today, Wadacre Gomez who has won 4 of his last 8 on the A/W and Sniper’s Eye, who is actually up two classes for just his second handicap appearance and wears a hood for the first time upon his comeback from a lengthy (266 days) absence. Stay Well was the only other runner to make the frame on their last run, but he’s also the only runner in this race without a win in six, having been beaten in fourteen straight contests since his last win in October 2021.

In addition to the Sniper’s Eye, bottom-weight and sole female Roxanne is our only other class riser as she steps up one class and also sports a hood for the first time, whilst top-weight Enfjaar is our only class dropper, down one level from Class 2. He has, however, not raced for 229 days and has been gelded during his layoff. Like Sniper’s Eye, Tarjeeh also makes just a second handicap run.

We’re a bit shy on course/distance success here, but both Wadacre Gomez and Zealot are former course and distance winners, whilst Enfjaar won here over a mile thirteen months ago, interestingly after another long (236 days) absence, so the break might not rule him out today. Stay Well has also won over today’s trip, albeit on quick ground at Windsor, way back in April 2021.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have performed under similar conditions over 2yrs, 5yrs or all-time and this is the 2-year snapshot…

...where Zealot and Wadacre Gomez have clearly had the most recent success even if Zealot has struggled over the last year, losing five on the bounce since winning seven of eight races in a four month period from December 2022 to March 2023. That raised his mark from 59 to 99, but he's now running off 84, some 12lbs below his last win, which could make him dangerous. As for Wadacre Gomez, he has four wins and a place from five efforts over course and distance and is only up 2lbs from his win here two weeks ago. Enfjaar probably shades the role of third best on those numbers above.

Quite a few of those have swathes of red next to their name, especially Diamond Ranger who looks the most vulnerable of the eight, but maybe he has just been unlucky not to win. The place stats will tell us quickly enough...

...and they suggest that he's not as bad as his win record would suggest, but that he's clearly not at this best at Class 3 and/or over 1m2f. Stay Well's place stats are also poor and I think I'd rule these two out here. Top of our speed ratings, Roxanne, is unexposed under these condition and could be a dark horse.

Course and distance specialist Wadacre Gomez is drawn widet of all here, out in stall 8, but I don't think that will make or break his race, as there's no huge draw bias over 1m2f here at Chelmsford in 8-runner contests, if truth be told...

Stalls 3 to 5 may have a slight edge in terms of wins and those in 4 & 5 have clearly better place returns and whilst this is encouraging news for the likes of Tarjeeh, Sniper's Eye and Diamond Ranger, they are among the weaker runners here and might need all the help we can get.

Pace, however, is generally a different kettle of fish here at Chelmsford and regular readers of this column and/or users of our pace stats won't be surprised to learn that the further forward you race, the greater the chance of a win or place! (not the best poetry you'll ever read, but it's true!)...

So, where is the pace going to come from? Well, we don't know for sure, but by looking at the field's recent runs, we can usually make an informed guess...

There's a possibility that this might be a falsely run affair, which would play into the hands (hooves) of Wadacre Gomez on his favoured track/trip, but then again he also has the highest average pace score. Zealot was looking like an E/W possible, but having to come from the back is never easy here and that might be an issue and I think this opens the door for Enfjaar and Roxanne.

Summary

Pace wins the race they say in Chelmsford and with Wadacre Gomez heading the averages above alongside his excellent course and distance record, I'm not sure a 2lb rise here will stop him from going in again and this is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite with Bet365 (only book open at 3.45pm Wednesday) I was hoping he'd be more like 10/3 for this, but either way he's the one I think should win here.

I did like Zealot as an E/W option, but the pace might count against him. That said, if it's a falsely run race that might well suit him, as he's used to doing all his best work late on. Enfjaar was third best on Instant Expert and was handily placed in the pace profiler, as was the filly Roxanne who was a one-length runner-up over course and distance two months ago and should go well again here.

Enfjaar currently trades at 9/2, which again is a little shorter than I expected and too short for an E/W bet, but from that angle 16/1 might be generous about Zealot and/or Roxanne if things fall their way.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/05/24

8 May 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

1.50 Huntingdon
3.05 Chester
3.18 Brighton
6.40 Tipperary
7.10 Tipperary
9.00 Chelmsford

I fancy looking at some Flat/AW action today, but the Chester race above only has five runners and the Brighton race looks a poor quality affair full of inexperienced runners, so let's head to Essex for some late evening all-weather action and the 9.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

My initial thoughts were that this might well end up being a battle between stablemates Conquest of Power and Heerathetrack, who'll make the 250-mile round trip from Mark Usher's yard in Lambourn along with Q Twenty Boy who goes in the 6.30 race.

Conquest of Power is one of two (Thomas Equinas in the other) LTO winners in the field and Thomas Equinas has won three of his last four. Annie Law won her penultimate race, as did Poetic Jack, whilst Heerathetrack and Alexander James were both in the frame last time out. The latter, however, joins Golden Passport as having no win in six, having been beaten in 14 races on the bounce; Golden Passport has lost ten in a row.

He drops in class today (as does Harry The Haggler) and hasn't raced for two months, but that break won't be the reason he doesn't win here today, although the lay-offs for Poetic Jack (154 days), Annie Law (176 days) and Thomas Equinas (217 days) might be an issue here.

Alexander James is the only runner without a win at this trip and all runners here bar him, Golden Passport, Annie Law and Harry The Haggler are course and distance winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which has Thomas Equinas as the eyecatcher with a decent set of numbers and he's only 4lbs higher than his last win, but it has been seven months since that run/win here over course and distance. Conquest of Power's record at Class 6 isn't great at 1 from 8, but the win was last time out and he has already won at both Class 4 and Class 5. His record here doesn't look good either, but I believe that he has been a regular placer; we'll check that in a moment!

Alexander James looks particularly vulnerable here on his 14-race losing streak and it's probably fair to assume that he'll join Golden Passport in being excluded from my thoughts, even if the following place data shows him in a better light...

...which it doesn't to be honest. Just 4 places from 17 on standard going simply isn't enough. On a brighter note, my thoughts about Conquest of Power being a regular placer were spot on and Harry the Haggler also looks like an E/W or place prospect with Thomas Equinas still leading the way.

Thomas Equinas has been drawn plumb centre of the stalls with Heerathetrack taking stall 1 and King of Ithaca out in box nine, but if we look back at similar races since the start of 2020, our draw analyser suggests that stall position wouldn't be a significant factor in a horse's chances of winning this race...

...although the lower the draw, the slightly better the chance (+13% low over high) of making the frame, which is good news for Heerathetrack, who normally tends to race in the middle of the pack and has done so in each of his last four outings...

...with Golden Passport looking the likely back marker. There's no out and out front runner in this field, although Harry The Haggler did set the pace two starts ago and Poetic Jack lad for 6 of the 7 furlongs last time out, but wilted away to 8th of 9 and a 7-length defeat, so I wouldn't expect similar tactics from him. To be honest, I wouldn't be too surprised if Conquest of Power and course specialist Thomas Equinas didn't take it on between them.

Summary

Chelmsford really suits those willing to set the tempo of the race and both Conquest of Power and Thomas Equinas look capable of doing this and both arrive here on the back of a winning run last time out, albeit seven months ago in Thomas' case. His last three runs here have seen him win over course and distance twice either side of a win over a mile, so he's clearly the one to beat in this track when fit, but the lack of a run just tips the balance back towards Conquest of Power for me.

Conquest of Power would be my idea of a winner here, but I can see Thomas Equinas also making the frame. I'm not as sold on Heerathetrack as I thought I might be, but he still stands a decent chance of making the frame, as does Harry The Haggler.

The early (3.20pm Wednesday) bet365 market agrees with me about Conquest of Power (sadly)...

...but it does have Thomas Equinas as borderline E/W territory, depending on your personal odds cut-off point for E/W bets. I know Alexander James ran pretty well when finishing third over course and distance last time out, but hold-up horses have a poor record here and he has lost his last fourteen races, making the frame just twice. I might be missing something, but he wouldn't anywhere near second favourite in my book; I'd probably only have Annie Law, Golden Passport and Poetic Jack behind him.

We'll see! 😉

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/04/24

24 April 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

5.05 Beverley
5.10 Huntingdon
5.40 Beverley
6.52 Wexford
9.00 Chelmsford

You can tell the nights are getting longer when we've got races at 9pm and that race is probably the best of the free races for me to cover, so let's head off to Essex for that 9.00 Chelmsford contest, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Fearless Bay is our sole LTO winner, but that run/win was 18 months ago, so I'm not it's a relevant form pointer. Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing were all third recently and all three come here in decent form; Isle of Sark has made the frame in six of his last seven despite not winning, Cavalluccio is 31621233 in his last eight and Ludo's Landing has been third in each of his last two outings.

As stated above, Fearless Bay hasn't been seen since winning at Southwell in October 2022 and both Wonder Starelzaam and Obsidian Knight have been off the track for over eight months, whilst the other seven runners here have all raced in the last two to four weeks.

As well as possibly being rusty, Wonder Starelzaam won't be helped by a step up in class and Wyvern and Boasty also step up a level here, but Bass Player is down one grade for this one.

Isle of Sark, Bass Player, Wyvern and Ludo's Landing have yet to win over this trip, whilst Fearless Bay, Cavalluccio and Boasty have all won over course and distance in the past, but four of this field have never been to Chelmsford before, as shown below on the Instant Expert feature...

...which seems to suggest a big run is coming from Fearless Bay and had this not been a comeback run, I'd have been all over those numbers, but the lay-off is a big concern for me. Visibility and Boasty's joint return of 8 wins from 88 standard going races makes them look vulnerable here and added to a 1 from 17 record at Class 4, Visibility joins Fearless Bay as a horse I just can't back here and this decision looks vindicated by his two-year place stats (also from Instant Expert)...

...from which, I'd probably only want to focus on the following...

...giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10, so a wide spread for a race that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in stalls 1-3 for win purposes and those in 1-7 for the places...

...BUT I'm of the opinion that over a trip beyond a mile here at Chelmsford that it's pace that wins the race and that doesn't always mean how fast they go. I'm referring to the whole pace of the race, the tactics/running styles used etc and if we look back over those races from the draw analysis above, we see the usual Chelmsford ace bias in operation...

Irrespective of draw here, you've really got to be up with a pace to give yourself the best chance of winning and based in the field's last few runs...

...Boasty and Ludo's Landing might be the ones to set the fractions.

Summary

Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing are the ones bringing the best recent form to the table and all three emerged unscathed from Instant Expert along with Bass Player, Wyvern and Boasty. Wyvern and Boasty seem to have the best draw with the latter fitting the pace profile best of all.

For me, it's Cavalluccio's race to win/lose, he's the form horse and isn't badly treated on pace/draw.

As for the others mentioned here, Wyvern is massively up in trip, bang out of form and will have too much work to do from the back, so he's out. Bass player makes little appeal other than his two-year place record and has run poorly in his last two, so he's also out. This leaves us with Isle of Sark, Ludo's Landing and Boasty. Boasty's certainly not my idea of a winner, Isle of Sark always finds one (or two) too good for him and his mark is rising without winning and Ludo's Landing is the weaker of the three form horses.

The Wednesday 4pm market looked like this with only Bet365 open...

11/4 looks a bit mean about Cavalluccio and I was rather hoping for something closer to 4/1, so I might keep my powder dry there. Isle of Sark is no price at 7/2 in my book for a horse that doesn't win and Ludo's Landing isn't backable from an E/W perspective either. I do however agree with the bookie's 1-2-3 and if I did have a bet here, it'd just be a small E/W play on Boasty to see if he can turn his front-running into a place.

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/02/24

31 January 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

1.45 Wincanton
3.30 Ffos Las
7.30 Chelmsford

...and it's the last of that trio that is the highest rated, so I'll focus on the 7.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

My immediate thoughts were that whilst this isn't a great race, it looks very competitive, so let's look at the card and take away what we already know.

Twilight Madness and Level Up both won last time out, but the latter is now up in class. Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were both runners-up LTO and both won three races ago. Top weight Rocking Ends drops in class and wears a visor for the first time as he aims to end a sequence of ten defeats after winning three of his first eight career starts. Crimson Sand also won three of his first eight, but is 0 from 17 since, but he is noted on the card as a fast finisher.

All seven have raced in the last five weeks and all have won over today's trip already with Pop Dancer our sole course and distance winner, whilst Crimson Sand's last win was on this track albeit over 6f back in August 2021. Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have fared in past races under similar conditions...

...and the verdict is that they've not quite set the world alight. My causes for concern above include Crimson Sand (going/course/distance), Dynamic Force (generally), Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (going/distance) and I've got to hope that the place form stacks up better than the above...

...which, in fairness, it does to an extent. I've still concerns over Dynamic Force generally, Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (class), though and the latter is now rated some 10lbs higher than his last win. Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up score best above and they're spread across the stalls in boxes 1, 2, 4 & 7 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn lower in the past...

...but let's not beat about the bush here, this is 5f at Chelmsford and the draw plays second fiddle to the pace setup and this is how those 180+ races above has been won...

...where the basic premise is to get out quickly and stay out as long as you can and if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by, an 18th successive defeat is on the cards for Crimson Sand...

Summary

Twilight Madness, Level Up, Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were the pick on form with Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up the takeaways from our free feature, Instant Expert. The pace profiles effectively wrote Crimson Sand off, leaving us with Twilight Madness and Level Up ticking all three boxes (form/IE/pace). Both won last time out and I fancy both to have a good chance of making the frame with Twilight Madness my marginal pick of the two.

With six runners priced between 9/2 and 7/1 at 4.45pm, only Rocking Ends' 10/1 ticket is worth considering as an E/W option, but he'd be well down my list of options here and the role of market outsider is probably right.

You can make a case for any of the other six here, it's that competitive, but I'd suggest the 9/2 Twilight Madness to beat the 5/1 Level Up.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

13 December 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

12.20 Taunton
2.20 Naas
3.40 Warwick
5.30 Chelmsford
6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!). My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/11/23

20 November 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with all three at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

3.55 Limerick
6.15 Wolverhampton
6.30 Chelmsford
7.00 Chelmsford
8.15 Wolverhampton

...and whilst I do normally try to 'marry up' the free feature with the free racecards, Alafdhal's race looks a bit of a stinker if truth be told, but the one before it looks better as it's as highly-rated a contest as you'll find in the UK on Tuesday. It is, of course, the 6.30 Chelmsford, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baldomero has made the frame in his last two and in four of five despite not winning, whilst all bar bottom-weight Night On Earth (10 successive defeats) of his rivals have managed to win at least one of their last six.

Most of the field are dropping in class, as only Probe, Celsius and Night On Earth raced (unplaced) at Class 3 last time around, the others all dropp a class from Class 2, except Zaman Jemil who ran in a Listed race at Redcar. That was 37 days ago and most of the field have raced in the last two to ten weeks, but Celsius could be excused for needing a run after a six-month absence.

Probe has won over this trip at Newmarket and Wolverhampton with Zaman Jemil also having two wins at 6f; Newcastle & Thirsk, whilst Justcallmepete and Above are both course and distance winners with former also successful at Lingfield and Southwell over 6f on the A/W, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Justcallmepete looks to be the best suited and probable market leader Baldomero seems to be all at sea. Mind you, he has only won 2 of 30 career starts (2/20 on the A/W), so I'm hoping his place stats paint him in a better light...

...and indeed they do. That said, on basic percentage terms he's only fourth on going, third on class and fourth on trip and I think Justcallmepete still looks better suited to these expected conditions. This pair will emerge from opposite ends of the stalls with our Draw Analyser suggesting that Baldomero is at the better end of the draw...

That doesn't mean that Justcallmepete can't/won't win, of course. He might well be one of the 9.38% of those drawn higher than 7 who go on to win here and if he has the right pace profile to win, then he'll have every chance. The Pace Analyser for those nearly-300 races above won't come as a surprise to many of you...

...nor, I suppose, will this pace/draw heat map...

So, the question is, who will take the races by the horns and go for it from the off? Well, if we look at this field's most recent efforts, you've have to say that Baldomero is far more likley to be up with the pace than Justcallmepete...

...and the resulting pace draw heat map...

...also says Baldomero.

Summary

Baldomero is probably the best runner in the race, he scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, is ideally drawn and seems to have the right pace profile for the contest and that's probably why he's the current (Monday 3.25pm) 11/4 favourite, but I can't be backing him at that price. Yes, he's consistent with 11 top-3 finishes from his last 20 outings, but he's a consistent loser, too, having failed to win any of those twenty races. I know that all runs come to an end at some point, but 11/4 about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, a 1 from 12 record on standard A/W, 0 from 6 at Class 3 and the same over 6f just doesn't scream value to me. I know he was only beaten by a short head last time out, but he's been raised 2lbs for that defeat, so I'll leave him.

Justcallmepete makes more sense to me at 9/2 which is probably a fair price. Yes, he's going to need a bit of luck overcoming pace and draw stats, but he has two good runs (a win and a runner-up) here over course and distance, so he knows what this place is all about and I'd rather back him than the fav.

Of the rest Zaman Jemil is interesting, a win and two places from his last five, he makes a polytrack debut here down in both class and trip and boasting a 1 from 1 record on the A/W so far, might well be involved in the shake-up, especially if towed along by Baldomero early doors.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/11/23

15 November 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

12.30 Market Rasen
1.15 Taunton
3.10 Sedgefield
3.15 Punchestown

Aside from a 5-runner Listed race at Market Rasen, there's nothing higher than a Class 4 contest in the UK on Thursday, so with that in mind, I'm going to swerve the free races and potential weather disruptions and head down to Essex for the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Sir Oliver is our only LTO winner in the field having won a 12-runner handicap over this trip at Lingfield nine days ago beating the re-opposing Riot (5th) and Jilly Cooper (12th) by 1.15 and 42 lengths respectively. Riot is however 5lbs better off with the winner today. Consistent placer Revolutionise, Society Lion and Englebert all made the frame last time around and G'daay, Society Lion, Eden Storm, Hot Chesnut and Engelbert have all won inside their last six outings.

The bottom three on the card are our class movers with Hot Chesnut down a level and Engelbert & Spacer up from Class 5 with the latter now blinkered for the first time, whilst Maxi Boy now makes a debut in a visor. Most of the filed have had a recent run, but Society Lion has had ten weeks off and Revolutionise races for the first time since a narrow course and distance defeat over seven months ago.

Maxi Boy is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip and five (Sir Oliver, Revolutionise, G'daay, Riot & Hot Chesnut) have scored over track and trip, as seen here on Instant Expert...

...which although not painting too impressive a picture, does suggest the likes of Sir Oliver and Revolutionise might go well here. Riot, Little Boy Blue and Spacer are short on standard going wins, G'daay and Little boy Blue have poor Class 4 records on the A/W and Sir Oliver has struggled to get ahead here at Chelmsford in the past, whilst Hot Chesnut has hardly set the world on fire at this trip.

With not much winning form/green boxes above, it might prove prudent to look at the place stats to at least see who might be in the mix here...

...from which, I think I want to focus more on the runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 & 10...

...over a course and distance that our Draw Analyser suggests that there's very little to be gained from any particular stall...

On bare stats from 60+ races, it looks like high draws win more often, but low draws make the frame more consistently, so I'd be inclined to suggest the draw here, isn't as influential as race tactics aka pace might be and if we look at those races above through the Pace Analyser, we get a familiar Chelmsford picture...

...where prominent runners do well, but upfront is really the place to be, which should suit Maxi Boy, Sir Oliver and Revolutionise more than the other three on my whittled down version of Instant Expert...

...if they run like they normally do, of course!

Summary

If after discarding half of the field after the Instant Expert analysis, I'm left with the six runners above, then I'm more drawn to the first three named but Maxi Boy hasn't won any of his last seventeen and will need his first-time visor to perk him up a little. I'm not suggesting he can't/won't make the frame, but early odds (Only Hills showing prices at 2.30pm Wednesday) of 10/1 aren't doing it for me. Had he been 16's or bigger, I might have been tempted with a couple of quid.

This leaves me with Sir Oliver & Revolutionise and I suspect they'll finish in that order, but that suits me fine with a 5/1 win bet and a 17/2 E/W option at the time of writing.

Riot is the current 7/2 favourite and that sort of makes sense now that he's 5lbs better off with Sir Oliver with only just over a length to make up, but he tends to be held up and might well leave himself with too much to do here to win, but could well make the frame and even split my two picks.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 15/08/23

14 August 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

4.00 Nottingham
4.30 Nottingham
7.00 Newcastle
7.15 Chelmsford

Mayfair Gold has green for going, class, course and distance and she runs on one of our free races, so let's see how she might fare in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Moonspirit won on just her second outing LTO, whilst Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla both finished second, but none of their other rivals made the frame. After that recent win, Moonspirit now makes a handicap debut, as does fellow 3 yr old Rosa Chinensis who drops back to Class 5 after one run at Class 2.

In fact only the top four on the card are older than 3 yrs old, which means they're disadvantaged here to the tune of some 8lbs, but all of them bar Tahasun do at least take a drop in class here. Smiling Sunflower wears blinkers for the first time here and featured runner Mayfair Gold is hooded for a second time.

Top weight Croachill has won over a similar trip at Doncaster, whilst both Tahasun and Mayfair Gold are former course and distance winners with the latter also a runner-up over track and trip last time out.

That was three weeks ago and most of this field have had at least one run in the last 2.5 to 6.5 weeks, aside from bottom weight Creme Chantilly, who now returns from an 11-week rest following a poor run (last of 11, 12 lengths down) at Leicester, although she did actually won here over a mile on her second start back in October 2022.

That course win can be seen here on Instant Expert, of course...

My main take-away from those graphics above are that whilst this isn't a great race, it could well be a competitive affair and that both Smiling Sunflower and Valkyrian look weak. I'm happy to 'eliminate them from my enquiries' as we continue our analysis. As you'd expect from her position on The Shortlist, Mayfair Gold scores well here.

She is, however, drawn widest of all, so we'll need to consult the Geegeez Draw Analyser to see whether stall 10 is likely to be a help or a hindrance or if it really shouldn't matter...

...and the inference from the above is that the further away from stall 1 a horse is drawn, the progressively worse the chances of winning become, which should be great news for Creme Chantilly, but not good at all for Mayfair Gold. However, closer inspection of the stall by stall data from those races...

...shows that horses drawn higher than stall nine in those races won 20 of 185 races at a rate of 10.81%, which is on par or better with most of the other stalls, although the three lowest drawn horses have won most often overall at a rate of 12.33%. Yet the fact that stall 10 can outperform stall 3 suggests that Chelmsford races are decided by race tactics aka pace more often than they are decided by the draw, especially over trips longer than a mile and our Pace Analyser says that those races above have been won as follows...

Leaders win and place most often, prominent runners win almost as often as leaders and win more often than mid-division/hold-up runners combined, so form a win perspective we want a horse keen to get on with things, whilst for the places, we could do with avoiding runners who tend to be held-up like the already discarded Valkyrian. This is, of course, based on how the field has run in their last few races...

Summary

Moonspirit, Mayfair Gold and Hey Lyla bring the best form to the table and Mayfair Gold scored best on Instant Expert. I wasn't too concerned/interested in the draw, but the pace stats hand the initiative to Moonspirit and whilst there's probably not going to be much between them, I think she'll just have too much for Mayfair Gold.

There were no odds available at 4.25pm Monday, so I'll have to check back later, but I suspect the pick will be around the 9/4 mark which might not offer too much value. Tissue prices about Mayfair Gold suggest that she could be around 11/2, which might actually be worth a small stakes bet; I think she has more chance than 11/2.

Hey Lyla won't be much longer than Mayfair Gold in the betting and that's not long enough for me to have and E/W bet (I like to bet E/W at 8's or longer generally), but if you wanted a bit of a punt based on trust/faith more than anything else, then Creme Chantilly might be better than double-digit odds, especially if she gets away well.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/07/23

24 July 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Al Zaraqaan and Hiconic would be of obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

3.20 Southwell
6.38 Ballinrobe
7.50 Chelmsford
8.50 Chelmsford

The two at the top of The Shortlist are both likely to go off quite short in small field contests (4 of Southwell's 6 races have less than 7 runners!), so we'll head to Essex for the 7.50 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win any of their last two races, but Wild Hurricane and Totnes made the frame last time out whilst Boasty, One For The frog, Mayfair Gold, Semser and The Bay Warrior were all successful three starts ago.

Semser, Jenson Benson, Nasim, Marion's Boy and Wadacre Gomez all step up a class here, whilst The Bay Warrior makes a double step up, which might cause him issues after a poor Class 6 run over course and distance last time out. Likely favourite Totnes, however, was third in a Class 3 contest on her most recent start. She's also one of just two 3yos in the race and as such, gets a handy 9lbs weight allowance, as does Wadacre Gomez.

Wild Hurricane makes just a second appearance in handicap company and wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst it's a debut in a hood for Mayfair Gold, who like Tarbaan, Boasty, Semser, Jenson Benson and The Bay Warrior, is a former course and distance winner. Of the other six runners, Nasim has won here over a mile, whilst Marion/s Boy and Wadacre Gomez have been scored over 1m2f at Lingfield and Newcastle respectively.

Jenson Benson returns from almost eleven weeks off and The Bay Warrior hasn't raced for almost fourteen weeks, but the other ten have all been seen since the start of June with Nasim and Wadacre Gomez having run just a fortnight ago.

In addition to the course/distance wins mentioned above, Instant Expert advises us that field doesn't have a particularly good record on standard to slow A/W and that only five of them have a Class 4 A/W win...

I'd say that Tarbaan edges that, but despite the swathe of red, there aren't too many causes for concern, aside from Marion's Boy only winning 1 of 12 at this level, which is a worry, although it looks like he has made the frame in 3 of his 11 defeats...

Our Draw Analyser says that similar 1m2f contests at Chelmsford haven't really displayed much of a stalls bias...

...because if we said that the figures for stalls 2 & 9 were outliers, then there's really not a great deal of difference along the line, so that must mean that pace is the key here, as it often is at Chelmsford. Shorter trips here have certainly favoured those setting the tempo, but let's see how those races above have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...and whilst the effect of leading isn't quite a pronounced over this trip, you'd certainly rather be on a front runner than a hold-up type, especially from a place perspective. And if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, then the likely favourite Totnes is going to have her work cut out from the back of the pack...

Summary

Totnes is indeed the early (3.30pm) favourite at a fairly miserly 5/2 with the only open book at Hills. She's got ability, has a handy weight allowance and is running well, but 5/2 is too short for me about a runner destined to have to pass most of her rivals late on if she's to win. I also liked Tarbaan from Instant Expert, he's a former course and distance winner, but concedes weight all round and will also have to pass most of the field if he was to win. He'd make an ideal E/W bet, but not at 6/1!

So, for an E/W bet, i want to focus on the top 5 on the pace chart ie all those with an average score in excess of 2.00 and Boasty leads the way. He's a three-time course and distance, his last six A/W runs have seen him finish 223112. His place stats on Instant Expert were excellent, he'll set the pace here and at 10/1, looks a good E/W option.

Wadacre Gomez started out well, but has been heavily beaten in his last two outings and I'd prefer to see him show some improvement before I put any money on him. Wild Hurricane is unexposed and has finished 332 in his three A/W starts and would be a contender here. He's the 4/1 second favourite, so that's too short for an E/W bet, but he might actually go on and win this with the addition of cheekpieces.

And finally, we have Semser, who won here over course and distance in May before finishing as a runner-up at Goodwood four weeks later. He was somewhat disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, but he is a former course and distance winner and if things fall right for him, he too could be an E/W option at 12/1, especially with the bookies paying four places here in what looks a decent/competitive race for Class 4.

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/06/23

7 June 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

1.50 Ffos Las
3.25 Ffos Las
5.15 Hamilton
6.30 Leopardstown
8.50 Chelmsford

...from which, we're off to the Speedway in Essex for the 8.50 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard going polytrack...

My initial reaction was that this might well be a three-horse race between (alphabetically at this stage, of course!) Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested, but let's see if the data we have at our disposal backs up or disproves my gut feeling.

The last named of my trio is the only LTO winner in the field and has two wins and a place from her last three outings, as does my first-named Anificas Beauty, Miss Sarajevo was a winner five starts ago, but the remainder are winless in at least five or even eleven in the case of maiden Topo Chico.

Lightly raced Bell Song has been third in each of her last two starts and as one of five (plus Invested, Miss Sarjevo, Kynsa & Topo Chico) three year olds in the race, she'll get a useful 10lb weight allowance here. All bar Exigency (who drops down a class) ran at this level last time out, so they should now know what to expect, but it is a first handicap run for both Bell Song & Kynsa and just a second for Invested after scoring on hcp debut just over five weeks ago and she now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Anificas Beauty and Miss Sarajevo have both won over course and distance, whilst the only other two previous course winners are also the only other 7f winners with Nikki's Girl wining over 6f here and then over 7f at Leicester and Lingfield (AW), whilst Invested also won here over 6f and was a 7f winner at Yarmouth last time out.

The afore-mentioned Nikki's Girl might well need the run here as she turns out for the first time since mid-October, but all her rivals have been seen in the last six weeks.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows two of my chosen trio in a very good light, but Bell Song is a three-race maiden, despite making the frame twice in April, so her win line is all red, as it is for half of the field...

That might initially ring a few alarm bells, notably for Kodias Sangarius (class), Nikki's Girl (class), Hot Chesnut (class/distance) and Topo Chico (class/distance), but Anificas Beauty & Invested do catch the eye, as does Miss Sarajevo in fairness. The place stats will undoubtedly show some of these in a better light, because i already know that bottom-weight Topo Chico is better than her win stats might suggest with six places from her nine A/W starts...

...from which, I'd only really be interested in the following...

Those numbers speak for themselves and I won't patronise you by going through them here. Interestingly, we have two low drawn runners in Invested and Topo Chico plus the four widest/highest drawn of all, so i need to dig out the draw stats to see if any of the half-dozen might be afforded an advantage from the off...

But that's not as clear cut as it might at first seem, because if we isolate the individual stalls...

...the stats for stall 2 are an anomaly in my opinion and without them in the data, the bias is far less pronounced and it's really the pace aspect of this race that will decide the winner in my opinion. Chelmsford is now well known as a front-runners paradise and when we look at the pace profiles of the horses that won those races above in the draw analyisis...

...the win percentages rise almost exponentially, the further forward your horse runs. Hold-up horses fare really badly from both win and place perspectives, mid-division runners win almost twice as often as them and prominent runners slightly more than twice the rate of the mid-divs with leaders scoring almost twice as often as the prominent runners themselves. At other tracks, an IV of 1.41 scored here by the prominent runners would be enough for top ranking, but such is the low strike rate further back, that's not the case here.

So, who might lead them out? Well, according to the field's last few runs...

...I'd say that Anifica's Beauty may try to make all, chased by Invested...

, whilst there's not much between the other four of the shortlisted six...

Summary

I started with three runners who I thought would be the main protagonists ie Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested and of those, Anificas Beauty and Invested have both been very strong throughout the various stages of analysis and with their pace profiles in particular, they're going to be my 1-2.

Bell Song is probably the best of the other shortlisted horses, but you could easily make a case for the other three to steal third spot from the inexperienced 3yr old. Of my 1-2, I'm still along the lines of 'pace wins the race' and so it's Anificas Beauty over Invested here for me.

Sadly (or reassuringly, depending on the state of your glass) the bookies agree with me and have my trio of Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested at 4/1, 4/1 and 7/2 respectively with no other runner shorter than 11/1! So I'll take Anificas Beauty over Invested as my 1-2. Bell Song should complete the tricast/trifecta, but for an E/W option, Topo Chico certainly makes the frame on a regualr basis, she receives weight all round and has a 3lb claimer on board, which makes her a very interesting option at 14/1 E/W with Bet365, as of 5.05pm.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/05/23

10 May 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.40 Chester
5.05 Huntingdon
5.48 Clonmel
6.00 Chelmsford
7.00 Chelmsford
7.18 Clonmel

I want to tie the feature of the day into the free races here, so I'm going to look at the 6.00 Chelmsford. On the face of it, it's a poor looking 13-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap for Amateur jockeys over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

So, we've no LTO winners and only Billian is any kind of form with a win and four places from his last five starts. Hannah's Return did win two starts ago and Forever Dreaming, Millicent and Master Sully do have a win in their recent form line.

Top weight Red Alert drops down from Class 5, as does Forever Dreaming. San Juan runs for Damien Wingrove for the first time leaving Mark Loughnane's yard, Miss Connaisuer makes a second run post-wind surgery and both Fristel and Billian are noted as fast finishers.

Red Alert and Monsieur Fantaisie are both former course and distance winners, whilst Forever Dreaming, Billian and Hannah's Return have also scored over today's trip elsewhere.

At 114 days off, Monsieur Fantaisie might be a bit rusty, but his yard have a good record with horses coming back from a break. Aside from San Juan's 97 day lay-off, the rest of the field have all raced in the past eight weeks.

The bottom three on the card all run from 1lb outside the handicap.

Instant Expert usually helps us pick winners from such mediocre cards, but even feature of the day is struggling with this bunch...

...although some of them have clearly done better than others, but wait! Watch what happens if we look at A/W place form...

...now we suddenly have something to work with. Firstly I need to de-clutter, so let's get rid of Fristel, Millicent, Master Sully, Shining Crystal and Miss Connaisseur, because they're all holding a full line of red and if you can't make the frame, you can't win! Now this looks a bit better...

There are obvious concerns over Red Alert & San Juan on standard going with the latter also faring poorly at this trip, so I think we'll remove them at this point too before I start to fragment the Instant Expert graphic as follows...

In fairness, I probably didn't need to do that for you, but it means that I'm now only going to consider Hannah's Return, Forever Dreaming, Billian and Monsieur Fantaisie, who'll be spread across the track at the start from stalls 1, 4, 8 & 13 (non-runner came from #13). I put them in draw order, as the draw is the next thing to consider to see if those drawn at either end have a greater or worse chance of winning...

The initial thought here is that low draws do considerably better than high draws, based on the angle of that line, but the reality is that low draws only have 5 more winners from 415 runs, so I'm not too concerned about the horse out in stall 13 just yet, but he'll certainly have to make up ground if there's a level break. That said, Monsieur Fantaisie has been sharlply away on his last two outings...

...which, as most people know, is the correct way to approach 6f here at Chelmsford...

This isn't great news for either Billian or Forever Dreaming, because a look at the bigger picture says they could well have 10 runners to try and pass late on...

Summary

So, from the above I'm taking Monsieur Fantaisie, top scorer on Instant Expert to beat Hannah's Return, who also scored well on IE. They're the pace in this race too and I'm hoping they're the first two home.

The early market would seem to agree, sadly, as Monsieur Fantaisie is the 7/2 favourite with Hannah's Return at 6/1 alongside Billian with Forever Dreaming fourth in the odds at 8/1. The latter makes most sense as an E/W bet, but Billian is in the better form and should make the frame.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

31 March 2023/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

2.17 Stratford
3.05 Bellewstown
5.00 Kempton
6.30 Chelmsford
7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

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