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Stat of the Day, 7th November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.45 Wolverhampton : Lord Murphy @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Behind, headway over 1f out, ran on into 2nd inside final furlong, never reached winner, beaten by a neck) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coachella @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

Sorry for the delay this morning, had to go for an emergency dental appointment!

Anyway, let's crack on with a 4 yr old gelding in prime form having finished 221 in his last three runs, all in Class 6 A/W handicaps over a mile (sounds familiar!), culminating in a course and distance win here nine days ago, making him one of just two runners in today's contest to have achieved that feat. This will be tougher carrying an extra 7lbs, but the booking of Luke Morris is a positive move that should help.

He has just 2 career wins to date, which isn't great but when wearing blinkers going left handed in Class 6 handicaps over a mile (as he does today) he has 2 wins and a runner-up finish from 5 attempts and the 40% strike rate has yielded 68pts profit at an ROI of 1360%! That ROI is massively skewed by a 40/1 win that paid 70/1 at Betfair SP before commission, but ROI aside that stat does show he should have his favoured conditions today, if nothing else.

And the main underlying stat I've used today?

Looks far more complicated in print than it actually is, but...

...2013-18 / Class 5 & 6 / All-Weather / odds of 6-1 and shorter / LTO C&D winners by a head to 3 lengths 2 to 10 days earlier...

Such beasts are 81/217 (37.3% SR) for 61.7pts (+28.5% ROI) and in the interests of brevity (time is getting on!), I won't go into masses of subsets of data, but it is worth noting that of those 217 qualifiers...

  • those raised (OR) by 6 to 9 lbs are 52/129 (40.3%) for 48.8pts (+37.8%)
  • those racing over a mile are 13/31 (41.9%) for 24pts (+77.5%)

...and those racing over a mile off a mark 6 to 9 lbs higher than LTO are 10 from 20 (50% SR) for 24.5pts (+122.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Coachella @ 4/1 BOG , as offered by Betfair and paddy power at 6.30pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there's plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG WON at Evens (Tracked leaders, headway over 1f out, led narrowly inside final furlong, driven out, kept on, always just doing enough) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £2911 to the winner... 

Why?

Possibly not the best race on offer today, but a decent opportunity of another win for both SotD and this 6yr old gelding who was a winner here on this track LTO 11 days ago. That was over a mile in another big-field (16 ran!) Class 7 handicap and having raced prominently throughout, he put the race to bed quite early and then stayed on to win pretty comfortably by 3 lengths or so.

Safrani (who runs in the 8.15 Newcastle tonight) was just over 3 lengths back in fourth that day and he has since raced twice in Class 6 handicaps, winning once and making the frame in the other, which is another positive, as is the third place our pick achieved when attempting this course and distance three starts ago at a higher grade than today.

The step up in trip shouldn't pose too much of an issue should he be ridden the same way and with higher draws doing well here and the main race pace coming from wider out, he should get a really good target to aim at from the off.

Stat-wise, we've not got a massive sample size to use today, but trainer Steve Gollings' horses are 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 9.66pts (+48.3% ROI) here at Chelmsford over the last three years, all males and all in handicaps including of note today...

  • his only runner at the track that day : 5/16 (31.25%) for 7.15pts (+44.7%)
  • his only runner of the day : 4/14 (28.6%) for 4.06pts (+29%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/13 (46.2%) for 16.66pts (+128.2%)
  • at Class 6/7 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.57pts (+104.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%)
  • October-January trimester : 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.12pts (+176.5%)
  • up in trip by 0.5f to 2f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.08pts (+129.7%)
  • in fields of 11 or more runners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.98pts (+114%)

Like I said, they're not the biggest sample sizes I've ever used, but I think they give an indication towards what has worked for the trainer here at Chelmsford and a final positive I'll add to the selection is that jockey Adam Kirby is 11 from 48 (22.9% SR) for 9.86pts (+20.6% ROI) riding this 1m2f course and distance over the last 3 years and he does also ride Guardiola over this C&D in the opener...

...but my pick is... a 1pt win bet on Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Hamilton : Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, pushed along 3f out, kept on same pace final furlong, went 3rd post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack, worth £4658 to the winner...

A 2 yr old colt who was unimpressive on Turf if I'm honest, failing to make the frame in any of his five efforts over trips of 5, 5.5, 6 and 7 furlongs. He was then switched to the A/W four weeks ago and has gone 2 from 2 since, winning by 5 lengths at Lingfield and then again 5 days later at Newcastle by 2 lengths 22 days ago. The first of those wins was the only that he has been ridden by today's jockey, the in-form Oisin Murphy (more on him shortly!)

Trainer James Tate is 15 from 48 (31.25% SR) for 13.8pts (+28.8% ROI) here at Chelmsford with horses priced at evens to 6/1, from which...

  • in handicaps : 9/31 (29%) for 13.18pts (+42.5%)
  • September to November : 7/15 (46.7%) for 12.71pts (+84.7%)
  • 2 yr olds : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+45.5%)
  • Class 5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.04pts (+45.8%)
  • Nurseries : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.2pts (+273.2%)

I mentioned that our jockey Oisin Murphy was in good touch of late and this thought is verified by his 27 winners from 120 (22.5% SR) over the last 30 days that have generated 32.3pts profit at an ROI of 26.9%, whilst overall in Class 5/6 handicaps here at Chelmsford, he is 17/95 (17.9%) SR) for 23.9pts (+25.2% ROI) and these include...

  • at 1m and beyond : 14/61 (23%) for 33.7pts (+55.2%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 13/48 (27.1%) for 29.3pts (+61.1%)
  • and at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 over trips of 1m and beyond : 11/31 (35.5%) for 37.2pts (+119.9%)

And I'm going to wrap this one up with a quick nod towards our boy's sire, Moohaajim, who was very lightly raced, but won 2 of 5 starts including a Group 2 contest. This season is the first that his progeny have hit the track and after a slow start to the season, his offspring are firing the winners in. Over the last week, his 2 yr olds are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 89.2pts (+495.8% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter have won 6 of 9 (66.6%) for 14.62pts (+162.5%)
  • handicappers are 3/6 (50%) for 4.7pts (+78.4%)
  • on the A/W : 3/5 (60%) for 6.72pts (+134.4%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Southwell : Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Towards rear, not that fluent, pushed along briefly after 9th, headway on outside from 13th, 4th 3 out, went 2nd last, stayed on, couldn't reach winner who won by just a length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 6, 6f A/W Handicap for 3yo+ on Polytrack, worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 4 yr old filly who won at this track over 7f just 5 days ago under today's jockey. That was an apprentices' handicap, so she escapes a penalty for that win, but does drop down a furlong today : this shouldn't be an issue if she runs in the style as LTO, though.

Over the last nine months she is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 8.82pts (+73.5% ROI) in non-Tapeta A/W handicaps (some horses just don't "get" that surface), from which, she is...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.82pts (+89.3%) within 3 weeks of her last run
  • 4/10 (40%) for 10.82pts (+108.2%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 4.21pts (+42.1%) on Polytrack
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.82pts (+131.3%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 3/6 (50%) for 11.63pts (+193.8%) at Class 6
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%) under today's jockey, the 7lb claimer William Carver.

Her trainer, Conrad Allen, is 11 from 79 (13.9% SR) for 123.4pts (+156.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses racing at Class 4 to 6 over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs within 25 days of their last run and more generally in UK All-Weather handicaps over 5f to 7f, all horses who won LTO 2 to 5 days earlier are 57 from 163 (35% SR) for 48.8pts (+29.9% ROI) since the start of 2014.

Of these quick returning winners...

  • those racing at the same class as LTO are 41/107 (38.3%) for 39.3pts (+36.7%)
  • those racing on Polytrack are 30/81 (37%) for 30.9pts (+38.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/80 (36.25%) for 28.3pts (+35.4%)
  • at Class 6 on Polytrack : 13/37 (35.1%) for 16.4pts (+44.4%)
  • and at Class 6 on Polytrack after racing at Class 6 on Polytrack LTO : 10/27 (37%) for 11.04pts (+40.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 6.05pm on Tuesday evening. There is however, some  7/2 BOG at Bet365, if you can get on, too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 13/8 (Led early, tracked leader until over 11f out, hung left over 1f out, staying on same pace when bumped well inside final furlong, beaten by just over a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

A 5yr old gelding who has 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs on Polytrack including 3 wins and 3 places over 6f and is now back on his last winning mark from when he won a similar Class 2 A/W handicap over this trip at Lingfield.

His trainer, Jamie Osborne is in reasonable enough form having landed 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, he is 26 from 152 (17.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+34.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford, from which...

  • those racing within 15 days of their last run are 12/72 (16.6%) for 21.8pts (+30.3%)
  • over 6f : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.5pts (+33.1%)
  • those ridden by Dougie Costello : 9/49 (18.4%) for 34.8pts (+71%)
  • and racing over 6f within 15 days : 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.8%)

Whilst more generally in UK A/W handicaps over 5f to 8.5f since the start of 2013, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO 2 to 5 days ago are 161/724 (22.2% SR) for 198.1pts (+27.4% ROI), including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 133/590 (22.5%) for 180.2pts (+30.5%)
  • males : 130/559 (23.3%) for 170.2pts (+30.4%)
  • 3-7 yr old males : 105/438 (24%) for 148.9pts (+34%)
  • on Polytrack : 90/416 (21.6%) for 17.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds on Polytrack : 76/339 (22.4%) for 120.4pts (+35.5%)
  • and 3-7 yr old males on Polytrack : 58/244 (23.8%) for 93.2pts (+38.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £156.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)

2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,141.39

46 favourites - 14 winners - 10 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 39.5% units went through – 2/1* - 66/1 – 20/1

Race 2: 84.2% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 10/11* - 14/1

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 40/1 – 11/4

Race 4: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 – 10/1 – 9/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 10.2% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1 (13/2)

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 7/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (6/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 17 (Shades Of Blue) & 1 (Chelsea Cloisters)

Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Stream Of Stars) & 5 (Kew Gardens)

Leg 3 (3.40): 1 (Hydrangea) & 4 (Arabian Moon)

Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Cracksman) & 6 (Poet’s Word)

Leg 5 (5.00): 32 (Seniority), 21 (Settle For Bay), 18 (Cape Byron), 24 (Medahim) & 26 (Mukalal)

Leg 6 (5.35): 15 (Society Power), 17 (Symbolization) 14 (Purser) & 18 (Tabdeed)

Suggested stake: 320 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Clive Cox denied Wesley Ward securing a hat trick in this event twelve months ago and the two trainers could be locked in a dual up front via their respective individuals this year, namely SHADES OF BLUE and CHELSEA CLOISTERS.  The exchanges are offering 10/1 bar the two at the time of writing, though punters with burned fingers are still queuing up at the casualty department of the nearest hospital yesterday after the demise of the leading contenders in the opening race of the meeting.  I doubt that this pair will finish out of the frame however, offering up KURIOUS as the each way call whose sire won group races in Australia over sprint trips from the phenomenal Exceed And Excel line of thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor:  Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 renewals, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

3.05: Although both trainers have other runners in the race, John Gosden (STREAM OF STARS) and Aidan O’Brien (KEW GARDENS) look set to lock horns at the business end of the contest with their respective raiders.  John won with this year’s Gold Cup hope Stradivarius twelve months ago and I’m just siding with his inmate this time around, albeit Aidan is looking for his fifth victory in the race during the last nine years.  LYNWOOD GOLD could give each way investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Mark Johnston also boasting a good record in the contest down the years.  Only Sir Henry Cecil can beat Mark’s tally of seven winners in the Queen’s Vase, with maestro having gone one better during his wonderful career.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners.  19 of the last 21 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the 'Queen’s Vase': 

1/1—Stream Of Stars (good to firm)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 29 horses that have claimed Placepot positions from the 42 available places to date, statistics which includes twelve of the fourteen winners. Indeed, four-year-olds have won the last nine renewals of this contest and I fully expect the likes of HYDRANGEA and ARABIAN HOPE to represent the vintage to good effect for their famous connections.  Third spot could go to Urban Fox at around the 10/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the two course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge': 

1/2—Hydrangea (soft)

1/3—Urban Fox (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 16 of the 17 renewals of this Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as Desert Encounter (the only other runner outside of the relevant horses) surely has little chance of prevailing. John Gosden enjoyed a sparkling day yesterday but he will be looking for compensation for the defeat of inmate Jack Hobbs in this event twelve months ago.  The 2/1 favourite folded like the proverbial pack of cards that day, though stable representative Cracksman will be more like a 4/7 chance today with ‘Frankie’ boasting definite claims of extending his lead as top jockey at the meeting after his treble yesterday.  Dettori has now ridden 59 Royal Ascot winners, scoring at least once in 23 years of his glittering career.  Surely only POET’S WORD can be given a chance against the Gosden/Dettori bandwagon.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last 21 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders have reached the frame.

Record of the three course winners in the feature race on the card: 

1/1—Cracksman (soft)

13—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

1/1—Hawkbill (soft)

 

5.00: 15 of the last 20 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests.  Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005.  Six of the first eight horses home four years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16.  Last year’s 25/1 winner Zhui Feng was the second horse mentioned in despatches but Amanada Perrett’s raider runs from trap two this time around. Pat Dobbs is sure to take them along at a decent clip on the far side, though preference is for the draw/vintage/weight trends to pay dividends again via the likes of SENIORITY (drawn 30), SETTLE FOR BAY (22), CAPE BYRON (25) and MEDAHIM (28).  The reserve nominations are MUKALAL (32) and KYNREN (11).

Favourite factor:  Only five of the last 24 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner--nine years ago).

Record of the four course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup: 

1/5—Zhul Feng (good to firm)

1/1—Cape Byron (soft)

2/5—Raising Sand (good & Good to soft)

1/1—Bless Him (good to firm)

Draw statistics for the last eleven renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:

26-22-18-11 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1

4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1

11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1

33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1

6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1

33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1

24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1

11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1

33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1

27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1

17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2

The average priced winner during this study period: 13/1

Average priced placed horse: 18/1

Draw conclusions:

Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 15 placed

Horses drawn 16+: 7 winners – 19 placed

If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!

On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:

Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1.  In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1.  Those were the figures I offered last year before the Exacta forecast paid £559.90 on fast ground twelve months ago, the first two horses home having emerged from stalls 16 & 22.

 

5.35: 28 of the last 42 available Placepot positions (67%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed.  11 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though three of the last four results have bucked that trend. Upwards and onward in positive mode as much as is humanly possible in another daunting renewal of the Jersey Stakes.  Surprisingly perhaps, I looked at this race first, which suggests just how difficult the contest could be, even from a Placepot perspective with just three places up for grabs. My pin has fallen on the quartet of SOCIETY POWER, SYMBOLIZATION, PURSER and TABDEED.

Favourite factor:  The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013.  Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites four years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the following two years before the 2/1 marker leader prevailed twelve months ago. Ten of the relevant market leaders claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale (Jersey Stakes): 

1/1—Mukalal (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.55 Stratford : I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, not always fluent, headway on outside 9th, driven and every chance before last, stayed on same pace flat and beaten by 5L)

Next up is Wednesday's...

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tropics @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £25876 to the winner...

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding is showing no signs of letting his advancing years slow him down, winning 4 of his last 8 starts on Turf/AW, including a comfortable 2 length victory here over course and distance at this grade last time out a week ago.

A 6lb rise in weight is semi-negated by a 3lb jockey claim today (jockey has won with him previously) and based on the manner of his last run/win, a 3lb difference shouldn't be enough to anchor him here.

To date, he has 5 wins and 4 places from 14 starts on the A/W, including the following of note/relevance today...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 11 within 30 days of his last run
  • 4 wins and a place from 10 in a hood
  • 5 wins and a place from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4 from 6 going left handed
  • 3 from 5 as a 10 yr old
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 occasions sent off as a favourite
  • 2 from 2 at 5f
  • 2 from 2 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 in June

...he has also won 3 of 9 runs at Listed class on turf, where he also has a Gr 3 win to his name. He's not the force he used to be when making the frame in a couple of group 1 contests, but remains a decent competitor at this level.

His trainer Dean Ivory has a 22/136 (16.2% SR) record in handicaps at this venue that has rewarded his followers with 23.3pts profit at an ROI of 17.2%, from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 12/1 and shorter are 21/104 (20.2%) for 35.2pts (+33.8%)
  • LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6%) for 2.8pts (+14.6%)
  • those last seen 6-10 days earlier are 4/13 930.8%) for 23.2pts (+178.1%)
  • and over 5f : 3/12 925%) for 2pts (+16.7%)

...whilst more generally since the start of 2013, Dean's horses running at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 12 from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.38pts (+38.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • at 9/2 and shorter : 12/28 (42.9%) for 20.38pts (+72.8%)
  • won by a head to 2L LTO : 11/27 (40.7%) for 18.36pts (+68%)
  • on the A/W : 9/26 (34.6%) for 9.23pts (+35.5%)
  • at the same course and distance as LTO : 7/17 (41.2%) for 8.04pts (+47.3%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.46pts (+55.8%)

...and from that data...those priced at 9/2 and shorter on the A/W after a win by a head to 2 lengths LTO are 8 from 18 (44.4% SR) for 14.22pts (+79% ROI) and amongst those 18 runners...

  • those racing at the same course and distance as LTO are 5/11 (45.5%) for 4.9pts (+44.5%)
  • Chelmsford runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.46pts (+78%)
  • those running over the same Chelmsford trip as LTO are 2 from 4 (50%) for 3pts (+75%) profit

...which all points towards...a 1pt win bet on Tropics @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betway, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.30pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £197.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.9% units went through – 5/1 – 33/1 – 17/2 (11/4)

Race 2: 21.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 11/2 (8/13)

Race 3: 57.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 13/2

Race 4: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 5: 46.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 28/1

Race 6: 45.8% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 9/2 – 14/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 3 (Berlios), 2 (Vallarta) & 7 (Merdon Castle)

Leg 2 (6.30): 3 (March For Men) & 4 (Mr Diamond)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Rosemay), 6 (Titus Bolt) & 5 (Granite City Doc)

Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (Mr Wagyu) & 6 (Cameo Star)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Natajack), 7 (Colur Contrast) & 4 (Haymarket)

Leg 6 (8.30): 1 (Afandem) & 3 (Logi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Although representing no value for money whatsoever, it’s difficult to ignore the claims of BERLIOS, especially from a Placepot perspective whilst others to consider in this amateur rider event (careful where you tread) include VALLARTA and MERDON CASTLE.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last decade, though other gold medallists included those returned at 40/1, 20/1 12/1 & 10/1.  That said, five of the last six market leaders secured Placepot positions.

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Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

2/3—Dodgy Bob (good to firm & soft)

1/5—Mitchum (soft)

1/6—Picks Pinta (good to firm)

1/5—Gaelic Wizard (good to firm)

 

6.30: Diviner has at least won a race from three assignments thus far but it would be disappointing in the extreme if either MARCH FOR MEN and/or MR DIAMOND failed to finish ahead of Mark Johnston’s Wolverhampton scorer who has subsequently disappointed.  The relevant newcomers hail from the powerful yards of Tom Dascombe and Richard Fahey respectively and connections would be miffed to say the least if their youngsters failed to become involved in the finish of such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

7.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which definitely brings the likes of TITUS BOLT and GRANITE CITY DOC into the equation.  There has been overnight support for ROSEMAY however which adds interest to proceedings.  Ian Jardine’s Mayson filly has been well placed by the trainer and but for the negative weight trend in place, Joe Fanning’s mount would be a strong selection.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite via seven renewals to date.  That said, six of the nine market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Falcon’s Fire (soft)

 

7.30: There will be worse outsiders on the card than Zumurud I’ll wager, one of five raiders on the card for Rebecca Bastiman whose ratio at the track this year stands at 3/9, stats which have produced a level stake profit thus far.  That all said, MR WAGYU commands plenty of respect, whilst the Placepot chance for CAMEO STAR is also there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

8.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which eliminate three horses from the field from my perspective if we take potential jockey ‘allowances’ into consideration.  At various positions in the market this morning, the trio which make most appeal consists of NATAJACK, COLOUR CONTRAST and HAYMARKET.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have secured five of the seven renewals thus far, with favourites coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Six of the eight favourites finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/8—Haymarket (good)

1/14—Rioja Day (good to soft)

 

8.30: Whilst I bypassed one of Mark Johnston’s horses (Diviner) with a supposedly obvious chance earlier on the card, I will not desert Mark’s representative AFANDEM in this grade/company, especially with the Vale Of York gelding having attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the hat trick seeker LOGI.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Hamilton card.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Logi (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Zylan (good to firm)

7/33—Economic Crisis (3 x good to soft – 2 x soft – good & heavy)

5/21—Alexandrakollantai (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft – heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

7.50 Lingfield : Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (In rear, headway 2f out, not clear run [poorly positioned IMO] and switched right over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, couldn't reach winner, beaten by a head)

We continue with Wednesday's...

3.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danzay @ 3/1 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 handicap for 3yo over 1m on polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

here we have a 3 yr old gelding who was a winner over 1m2f at Goodwood just five days ago when making all. The truth however is that he was hanging on for the last 2f and the line couldn't come quick enough for him. The good news here is that (a) a drop back to a mile should therefore help him see this one out better, (b) he's unpenalised for that win, as it was an apprentice handicap and (b) the wily Franny Norton now takes over in the saddle : an excellent judge of race pace.

And although his trainer Mark Johnston has a 15.8% strike rate at this venue (47/298), he's not profitable to follow blindly, however...

...if you backed all his 2 to 4 yr olds here sent off at 7/2 & shorter, you'd have 33 winners from 89 (37.1% SR) and 15.2pts (+17.1% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 21/52 (40.4%) for 15.2pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.2pts (+37.2%)
  • and at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 11/19 (57.9%) for 15.9pts (+83.8%)

More generally, since the start of 2013 at trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs on UK polytracks, horses who won or were beaten by less than lengths LTO and were turned back out just 2 to 5 days later, went on to win 141 of 562 (25.1% SR) quick follow-ups recording profits of 172.9pts at a healthy ROI of 30.8%. These are not trainer specific, just blindly backing quick returners who weren't well beaten LTO.

And finally, seeing as this one did win so recently, it's worth noting that Mark Johnston's Class 5 handicappers who won last time out are 35/95 (36.8% SR) for 26.3pts (+27.7% ROI) profit and these include of relevance today...

  • 27 winners from 69 (39.1%) for 23.8pts (+34.5%) for those last seen 4-25 days earlier
  • 31 from 64 (48.4%) for 21.8pts (+34%0 at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 24 from 55 (43.6%) for 32.7pts (+59.4%) from those running at the same class as LTO
  • 17 from 35 (48.6%) for 23.4pts (+66.8%) in the June-August quarter
  • and 9 from 24 (37.5%) for 3.93pts (+16.4%) on polytrack

...and derived from the above, you could back those priced at 6/1 and shorter at the same class as an LTO win 4-25 days earlier for 20 winners from 38 (52.6% SR) and 23,2pts profit at an ROI of 60.9%...

...which would prompt...a 1pt win bet on Danzay @ 3/1 BOGGENERALLY. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 31st May

HAMILTON – MAY 31 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £65.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.3% units went through – 2/5* & 28/1

Race 2: 38.0% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 5/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 37.4% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 11/2 – 11/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 26.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/2 – 33/1

Race 5: 65.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 9/2

Race 6: 53.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 – 7/2* - 7/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Delft Dancer) & 5 (Big Ace)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Lexington Place) & 6 (Dapper Man)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Logi), 3 (Redrosezorro) & 6 (Epeius)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Jabbaar), 6 (Artful Rogue) & 4 (Corton Lad)

Leg 5 (4.00): 9 (Song Of Summer) & 2 (Lady Nathaniel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Natajack), 6 (Quiet Moment) & 1 (Prancing Oscar)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mark Johnston (see favourite factor comment) saddles his Dutch Art filly DELFT DANCER who won at the second time of asking under soft conditions at Nottingham. Only BIG ACE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing, with trainer Tim Easterby having saddled eleven winners during the last fortnight.  That said, Tim’s juvenile record on turf this season of 2/16 cannot live with Mark Johnston’s 14/48 but then again, few would struggle to get on terms with those two-year-old figures!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market scored having been touted up by yours truly after huge overnight support for the Mark Johnston inmate.

 

2.30: Five four-year-olds have won during the last decade though that said, the last of them prevailed back in 2013.  Four course winners contested last year’s event but we are down to two this time around with conditions seemingly good for LEXINGTON PLACE on this occasion.  DAPPER MAN appears to be the pick of the pair of four-year-olds and there might not be a great deal of daylight between the Placepot nominations at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last ten years though that said, eight of the other nine gold medallists have been returned in single figures.  Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame during the last eleven years.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/8—Jacob’s Pillow (good & good to soft))

1/1—Lexington Place (good to firm)

 

3.00: It’s worth having a look at the negative favourite figures below in case you are ready to plunge into one of the fancied horses in the field.  All five winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-7, though only EPEIUS appears to have a hope of winning the race in the face of stern opposition further up the handicap.  The chance or LOGI to go close is there for all to see, whilst the admirably consistent REDROSEZORRO demands respect.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via five renewals which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-18/1-10/1-10/1-8/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Logi (good to firm)

1/4—Straightothepoint (good)

 

3.30: Keith Dalgleish saddles two of the remaining six runners with Trading Punches having been withdrawn.  Keith’s ‘course specialist’ CORTON LAD can rarely be overlooked at this venue, whilst ARTFUL ROGUE would not be winning out of turn for the team.  Either way, both horses are up against it with JABBAAR having been declared to run again following his Chester victory on Saturday.  A six pound penalty might not be enough to stop Iain Jardine’s Medicean gelding in his tracks.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

3/15—Corton Lad (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.00: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 and the Irish raider LADY NATHANIEL looks to have been well placed by canny trainer Ger Lyons.  That said, it might be as well to keep both feet on the ground as Ger’s record this side of the Irish Sea on the level stands at 5/93 down the years on turf.  Iain Jardine has definite claims of potentially saddling two successive winners on the card having declared SONG OF SUMMER, though Iain’s Choisir filly hails from the wrong end of the handicap according to the weight trends.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via six renewals at 4/1** & 5/4.  That said, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1 though conversely, four of the last five market leaders are still being sought by detectives in the area, having finished out with the washing.

 

4.30: Four-year-olds have won all three contests and the trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely NATAJACK, QUIET MOMENT and PRANCING OSCAR.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far by snaring gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.10 Ripon : Pipers Note @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Towards rear, switched right and headway over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, edged right, unable to trouble winner)

We end a difficult month via Thursday's...

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £19407 to the winner... 

Why?

A seasonal re-appearance for this 3 yr old filly some 265 days after completing a perfect 4 from 4 season as a 2yr old, which included...

  • 4/4 under today's jockey Luke Morris
  • 2/2 over a mile
  • 2/2 on the A/W
  • 1/1 at Class 2
  • 1/1 over a mile on A/W
  • and 1/1 at Class 2 over a mile on A/W

She's trained by Sir Mark Prescott who has had 102 winners from 516 (19.8% SR) runners on the A/W since the start of 2015 generating profits of 74.3pts at an ROI of 14.4%, including a 76 from 272 (27.9%) record in handicaps that has produced 155 pts (+57%) profit.

And from these 272 A/W handicappers...

  • those with 3 to 10 previous runs are 68/239 (28.5%) for 139.5pts (+58.4%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 65/221 (29.4%) for 133.9pts (+60.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 53/179 (29.6%) for 120pts (+67.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 44/160 (26.5%) for 61.3pts (+36.9%)
  • females are 31/120 (25.8%) for 101.7pts (+84.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 24/83 (28.9%) for 57.6pts (+69.4%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 18/66 (27.3%) for 18.9pts (+28.6%)
  • LTO winners are 22/63 (34.9%) for 8.9pts (+14.1%)
  • over trips of 7f to a mile : 17/63 (27%) for 63.4pts (+100.6%)
  • horses with a career strike rate of 33% or better are 18/46 (39.1%) for 17.9pts (+38.9%)
  • in May : 8/20 (40%) for 11.48pts (+57.4%)
  • and those returning from breaks of 8 to 12 months are 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.57pts at an ROI of some 181.3%

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Codicil @ 13/2 BOG  which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your referred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday's...

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he's making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners...

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod's record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND...it's also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman's LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday's...

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he's making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners...

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod's record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND...it's also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman's LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th May

SANDOWN – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)

Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*

Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1

Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)

Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)

Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.

Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race: 

1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)

1/5—Zambeasy (good)

 

6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around.  Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already.  Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years.  These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins.  Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes: 

1/1—Petrus (good to firm)

 

7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight.  David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.

 

8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests.  LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon.  Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further.  Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered.  Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale.  Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale: 

3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—First Selection (good)

1/1—Fastar (good)

1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.