In this game it’s never too late, writes Tony Stafford. As the rain poured down rendering Saturday’s Cheltenham card in jeopardy after an awful drowning Friday, one Irish trainer was firmly keeping his fingers crossed that the much-vaunted drainage system of Prestbury Park would pass muster.
It did, enabling both the Saturday and Sunday cards to proceed, indeed in slightly less testing ground conditions than expected. While overall the meeting was a glittering triumph for the Dan Skelton yard, it will forever live in the memory of Tom Cooper, a veteran journeyman Irish trainer with 37 years in the game as a licence holder.
Suppose you had been training horses for that length of time and had reached double figures only twice, it would obviously have been something of a struggle, as it is for so many trainers. Overall, those 37 campaigns have yielded 121 wins with just the two from 12 individual horses this year. That was Tom Cooper’s story before Saturday, but two days at Cheltenham over the weekend have pushed away a lot of that endless toil.
Tom was undeniably best known for a while as the father of Bryan Cooper, who in his late teens and early 20s was one of the fastest rising stars of the Irish weighing room. He had the privilege, earned by precocious skill, to ride many top horses including Don Cossack, Apple’s Jade and the 15-length 2016 Triumph Hurdle winner, Our Conor.
In that season of 2015/16, he won 94 races in Ireland, his best score, and his mounts earned more than €2.2 million. His career entered a gradual slowdown before he retired from the saddle at the age of 30 in March 2023.
Tom Cooper had sent horses across to England in 30 of those 37 seasons, winning twice from 50 runs in all. Back home his 12 individual runners in 2025/26 had picked up two first prizes earning a total of €25k.
It’s funny how luck can turn on such a knife-edge. As the crowds left Cheltenham last night, Tom Cooper had not only doubled his entire UK career win score but exceeded his Irish earnings for the season to date by notching two wins from his only UK runners of the year so far.
I say so far advisedly, as both Saturday’s successful 4yo filly Celestial Tune and yesterday’s gelding Saint Clovis are guaranteed to be back for more. Saturday’s winner cost €80k at Tattersalls Ireland in the summer of last year, the bid signed for by Bryan Cooper. She was one of the two Tom Cooper winners in Ireland this season, by nine-and-a-half lengths at Listowel in late September.
Saint Clovis was much more modestly priced at €22k, but the style of his win will have had those big-money operators swirling around. Easy Cheltenham Listed bumper winners do not grow on trees, and such are the resources of those owners at the top of the game, it sometimes can appear that their money does. Expect Tom and probably Bryan’s phones to start ringing – no doubt they already have – though owner Andrew Brooks likely has enough pennies to fend off all but the most tempting of suitors.
Cooper junior also signed the ticket for his father’s other winner this season: the filly Amen Kate was successful at 3/1 on for a Galway maiden hurdle last time out. When Celestial Tune followed up the win on home soil with that taking success on Saturday under Sean Bowen, she was paying a healthy compliment to one of Saint Clovis’s yesterday opponents.
He had finished second in a big field behind Gavin Cromwell’s Bud Fox, so it was understandable with the close at hand endorsement, that he should lead the market.
But it fell to another UK champion jockey, this time Harry Cobden, who sent the Cooper four-year-old to the front, never to be headed. The near five-length margin was being stretched all the way to the line. Bud Fox looked to be galloping all over the winner turning for home, but he ran out of puff up the hill and had to be content with third. Maybe something is not quite right with the Cromwell horses just now, their score of 1 from 51 in the past fortnight – and three from 107 in the last 30 days – miles down on longer-term strike rates.
Saint Clovis is regally bred by jumping standards. His sire Clovis De Berlais was a high-class performer in France and sired Friday’s last-race winner French Emperor. That five-year-old put in a massive performance under top-weight for Somerset trainer Nicky Martin and the Bradley Partnership.
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When people take a view on a purchase at the sales aiming at resubmitting their buy at a future auction, there is often a salutary lesson to be learned. But Sam Haggas, son of William and Maureen, has inherited some very positive genes from his parents (not to mention grandfather Lester Piggott) as his recent exploits in the New Zealand sales ring bear out.
Last January he joined with two pals, Adam Potts of BBA Ireland and Barry Donoghue’s BMD Bloodstock, to buy a colt by the dual hemisphere sire Hello Youmzain. It was before the stallion became champion New Zealand first season sire, and he also had an excellent year with his progeny in Europe.
The trio paid NZ $90k and after a very fast 200-metre breeze at the Ready To Run sale, received an eye-watering NZ $700k. He was bought to race in Hong Kong.
You’ve probably noticed that there hasn’t been any flat racing for a few days but that hasn’t stopped Karl Burke or George Scott from adding to their already impressive 2025 records.
Burke supplied the favourite and winner, the seven-year-old gelding Royal Champion, to collect the £480,000 first prize for the £1 million Bahrain International Trophy on Friday over ten furlongs, ridden by James Doyle. Joseph O’Brien’s Galen (Dylan Browne McMonagle) and Charlie Appleby’s Military Order (William Buick) followed him home, also for some chunky place money.
Scott clocked up a best 43 wins in the UK but expanded his overseas challenges to such an extent that he won eight notable prizes, the most prestigious being the Prix du Cadran with Caballo de Mar at Longchamp and last weekend’s Group 1 in Munich, the Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern, with Bay City Roller.
The latter, a three-year-old, had been sent across to Longchamp for three important races this summer/autumn but had to be content with place money each time. That clearly was a disappointment after his unbeaten sequence in a trio of juvenile starts, but the seven-length victory in Munich has brought its reward with a stallion job next year.
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Finally, I am most disappointed that I cannot fulfil a long-planned visit to Plumpton today. The course’s owner, Peter Savill, is dedicating the meeting to his late daughter Charlotte who died at the tragically young age of 22 having suffered uncomplainingly with fibrolamellar liver cancer.
Peter explains that FLC is one of many lesser known but highly aggressive cancers mainly affecting young people that get little attention from major pharma companies. It leaves families and generous sponsors to provide support.
The day is aimed to bring attention to the disease and even if, like me, you could not manage to get to Plumpton for its early start today, you can call the team at Plumpton on 01273 890383 to donate.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/TomCooper_trainer_BryanCooper_jockey_agent.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2025-11-17 07:47:582025-11-17 07:54:38Monday Musings: Just Like That, Cooper’s Back
A 49% ROI (£24 to £35.70) with Friday's Tix play at Cheltenham was more fun and giggles than rock and roll, but it keeps things ticking over. There's a bumper Saturday menu today, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting Cheltenham's November fixture, as well as high class action at Navan and competitive racing at Uttoxeter and Wetherby before the tea time cards kick in. Today there's Listed racing at Newcastle and a nine-race bonanza at Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including nearly £120,000 rollover in the Scoop6 and a £250,000 placepot guarantee at Cheltenham...
Let's wheel back to Cheltenham for that big guarantee, starting at...
12.35 Cheltenham
The juveniles get us started in a 3yo Triumph Hurdle Trial guess up. James Owen won the race for the Gredley family last year with Burdett Road and, staying close to Poplar, he saddles East India Dock for the same connections this time. He is 90-rated on the flat, which loosely translates to 130-odd potential over hurdles; that would be enough to take this, though he may need to improve a little on an easy win at Wincanton last month. He led or pressed the lead all the way there, and might face contention from, amongst others, Model Approach if attempting that run style again. A.
In opposition is a JP McManus runner, My Noble Lord, trained by the Greenall/Guerriero axis - an emerging force - and this lad has won his last four, three on the flat and his debut over hurdles. On the level, he reached a progressive peak of 83 and his single jumps run was also slightly below the bar set by East India Dock; still, he was very novicey in that initial effort and can improve a chunk for the experience. A.
One other worth a mention and a place on B is the highly experienced ex-French Static, who was a neck second in a Listed contest on his UK bow and might have been a touch unlucky not to win. He doesn't have the upside of the other two named but brings battle hardiness to the table. Prairie Angel has won two middling Irish contests and was lesser-rated on the flat, so it will be disappointing for the British contingent if he's good enough to beat them: the overseas team will surely have much better Triumph options as the season wears on.
1.10 Cheltenham
Race 2 is an amateur riders' handicap chase, a contest where not all amateurs are made equal. Take Patrick Mullins for instance: he's ridden 50 winners at a near 0ne-in-three clip in the past year. That's more than many pro's have achieved and a strike rate none will have matched! He gets on the unexposed Transmission, who was second here on his chasing debut last time behind yesterday's Listed winner Hyland and looks credibly handicapped off 129.
It's obviously a substantial risk almost banking in a race like this but he's my sole A, to which I'll add just one B in Read To Return, trained by Tony Martin. The trainer had a second in a handicap hurdle here yesterday and this chap was 5th of 16, beaten only six lengths, in this race last year. Again, jockeys are important, and Fin Maguire is another highly experienced amateur.
Come On Teddy gets a positive trainer switch, and Toby McCain-Mitchell is another jockey uplift on The Newest One, winner of a similar race at the October meeting; but I'm going to risk it for a biscuit on Transmission, A, and Read To Return, B.
1.45 Cheltenham
A Grade 2 novice chase is Leg 3, and we have another borderline even money favourite. Horses sent off 10/11 to 11/10 in novice chases since 2019 have placed at 55%, a rate at which they should have just about won - so while I'm not opposing L'Eau Du Sud, I'm also not singling him. He was a smart hurdler last season, second in both the Betfair Hurdle and the County Hurdle, and he kicked off his novice chase campaign with a ten length win at Stratford. He made one howler there, and Cheltenham will offer greater tests than Shakespeare country, but he's obviously classy.
Lookaway won a G2 hurdle here last October before running second in the 2023 Greatwood Hurdle so clearly acts on the track. His win in a match at Uttoxeter on his sole fencing outing tells us little but he jumped adequately and handles top of the ground. I wonder if he has quite the scope of a couple of these, though.
The experienced one, having been summer jumping, is Breizh River. He's progressed from 107 to 135 and, while these are 'proper winter horses', we know quick ground and match fitness won't be issues.
With there being eight runners at time of writing, I'm going L'Eau Du Sud tentatively as A banker, with Lookaway and Breizh River on B. It might be as simple as that... and it might not be!
2.20 Cheltenham
The Paddy Power next. Ginny's Destiny is favourite and has loads of track form including when winning a novice at this meeting last year and when running second in the Turners (as well as a the Manifesto at Aintree). Stage Star was an all the way winner of this for Nicholls and Cobden last year off a mark of 155, and they'll bid to repeat the dose most likely with a horse rated exactly the same.
The Irish have a pretty poor record in this in recent years and I'm leaning into that in the hope they again miss the board. Focusing on 7-9yo's that ran in the last 60 days leaves me with Ga Law and Il Ridoto in support. All three on A. [And I might have a tiny e/w bet on Weveallbeencaught with as many extra places as I can get]
2.55 Cheltenham
A handicap hurdle next and another race with a strong favourite but a competitive look underneath. Doyen Quest nearly won here last month, and steps up to three miles for the first time. He looks an obvious jolly but does need to stay this extra half a mile. A.
As I referenced yesterday, David Pipe is a man for this meeting, his American Sniper running very well in 6th after being made an awful lot of use of early in the race. This time it's the JP horse Thanksforthehelp which is taking market action and commands respect. With form of P06 he hardly screams 'bet', but he's tumbled back to the mark off which he won a Class 2 Pertemps qualifier in February 2023 and he was entitled to need his first run of the season: this looks to have been the plan. A.
Gowel Road has a lot of weight but plenty of form under these conditions, too, for another trainer - Nigel Twiston-Davies - who gets winners at this meeting - he goes on B. And Pinnacle Peak and Zeeband are 'C' players with a squeak. Unnamed favourite on B, too.
3.30 Cheltenham
Tony Martin won this two years ago with the favourite and bids to reprise that with the almost unspellable Hamsiyann. He's been off since May, when he ran well in the Chester Plate, but has a stone in hand of the flat to hurdle extrapolation. Of course, he may simply not be good enough; but it's folly to oppose him in the placepot. A.
Henry Daly's mare Wyenot has cracking form behind the brilliant and under-rated Golden Ace; she led all the way here last month and, up six, will make another bold bid from the front - A. I'm against the Skeltons' Major Fortune on account of the ground, though he won't be a shock winner, and I prefer the claims of class-dropping Long Draw. B. Champagne Twist won the Novices' Final at Sandown last season and, if fit enough on this first run of the campaign, is another who can go forward from his current mark. B.
There are others with chances in a deep-looking final leg but we can't take them all!
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All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.
Remember, no Tix Picks on Sunday, though there are often sweet fish to fry - so do get involved yourself. I'll be back Monday morning.
A nice win for Chris with Thursday's Tix play at Chelmsford, and there's plenty to go at today, Friday, with racing from Cheltenham's November meeting, as well as Newcastle, Punchestown and Southwell over jumps, and Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening on the sand.
If you're new around here, it's worth taking a moment to familiarise with the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £200,000 guarantee at Cheltenham...
It's an unsurprisingly challenging six-legger at Chelto but with the big guarantee it's well worth a dart or two, starting at...
1.10 Cheltenham
We start with a big field handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, and it could well be an early bath! There are two runners, Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos on six-timers - double hat-tricks if you will - and they're obvious A players given their lowly starting points and waited with run styles (it's often harder for the handicapper to assess the level of horses that win from off the pace).
David Pipe is a man to keep on the team at this fixture, and his American Sniper - although lugging top weight - won this race last year off just a pound lower mark. B. Second in the weights is Whatsupwithyou, a lad with three silver medals round here and, most notably, a fourth in the Martin Pipe. He's another easy B.
I want C action here, too, and I'll lob in the Tony Martin possible plot (whose form I don't really like but whose price I respect), Young Lucy; and more interestingly/speculatively, Getalead (potentially very well handicapped on old form despite arriving on a hat-trick and a lover of good ground), Littlefoot (unexposed and showed a liking for big field quick ground at Ballinrobe recently) and Clonbury Bridge at the other end of the exposure spectrum but one who relishes a top of the ground battle in a big field.
Phew.
1.45 Cheltenham
From the melee of race one to a four-runner novices' chase. Win only for placepot purposes makes it tricky, as does 4/1 the outsider: they've all got a theoretical 20% or better chance of winning. Springwell Bay is favoured and he has looked classy on occasion, as when winning over 2m3f last time; but his pedigree doesn't assure that he'll stay even though he's gone close in lower class handicap hurdles at this range. Still, he cannot sensibly be left off A tickets; but nor is he banker material.
He'll share top billing with Hyland, an easy course/distance/going winner last month. He's up in grade but could have more to offer on good turf; and I think I'm throwing the other pair on A, too. Buddy One is the highest rated of these and can be forgiven a below par spin last time; he won at this meeting (3m handicap hurdle) last year and is usually bang there. Meanwhile, the Olly Murphy / Sean Bowen combo is hot hot hot right now, and they combine with Resplendent Grey, a winner of five of his eleven races and his sole chase run. He's the lowest rated of these but has bags of scope to step forward - though he'll need to prove he can handle both this far and this fast. I think he probably can.
Unnamed favourite as well.
2.20 Cheltenham
We're at leg 3 and could hardly be accused of taking a chance yet! This is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase and another four-cornered contest. Jonbon is a short-priced favourite, and he's six from six in his head to heads with these rivals, winning the four races in which he's faced them. Indeed, he's won 14 of 17 lifetime, and every time when off a layoff, including in this race last year. He might not win but he's got to be the banker. Sole A, and hope he's as good as ever.
N.B. If something interesting happened from a placepot perspective in one of the first two legs, you might consider laying Jonbon to cover some/all of your placepot stakes...
2.55 Cheltenham
Cross Country time and this handicap comprises largely the usual suspects, but with a couple of newcomers at opposite ends of the awareness continuum. Conflated is a mid-160's genuine Grade 1 horse that ran a close second to Jonbon in the G1 Melling Chase in April. He has all the weight to carry and this has traditionally been a sighter race for Gordon Elliott's Festival Cross Country brigade, almost all of which have been out of the frame at single figure prices. And yet this fella is taking support as I write.
Virtually unknown to the British audience - and to me - is Sweet David, a five-year-old French raider trained by Gabriel Leenders. He ran a huge race on his cross country debut at Craon and, if that wasn't a flash in the pan, he's at the right end of the handicap to get involved. Leenders deploys Felix de Giles to steer, his record over this course and distance reading 132432532 in the last few years.
It's a really tough race to unpick, with lots trying the fences for the first time, something that is generally a negative. Gavin Cromwell's Cheltenham record is right up there, and his Fameaftertheglory was third over these fences, albeit on soft ground. The quicker lawns would be a concern but he at least shapes up well otherwise. Back On The Lash won this off 138 in 2021, and a later season race over the same course/distance in 2023 off 137; he runs today from a perch of just 122, testament to his spotty form since. But as a dual cross country scorer in a field largely made up of virgins in the discipline, he might step back to something closer to his old sparkle.
In spite of my reservations, I'm taking Conflated on A along with Sweet David; and Fameaftertheglory on B and Back On The Lash on C. But I might easily have this race wrong.
3.30 Cheltenham
Six runners contest this G2 novice hurdle over 2m5f and two of them are very big prices indeed. Valgrand bashed Gale Mahler last time, which was unexpected, and both step up markedly in trip - from two miles. Gale Mahler gets five pounds more of a weight pull this time and I just don't quite believe the margin from their previous meeting, so both go on A. Potters Charm has more scope to improve but he'll need to, on both bare form and hurdling aptitude; it's the latter which sees him relegated to B on my tickets. And, while Rockstown Girl is probably overpriced at 25/1, I don't see all of the three already mentioned being out of the frame.
Unnamed favourite on B also.
4.00 Cheltenham
And we close with a 2m novices' handicap hurdle where a single non-runner will mean only three places. Sheesh. Fasol is an unexposed ex-French fastgroundophile. Group placed on the level this will be his handicap debut and, off 108, he could be absolutely lobbed in (he's got a flat RPR higher than his best current hurdles RPR - you'd normally expect the jumping one to be around 40lb superior!) - A.
Much more obvious is Balhambar, a smart flat horse when with Sir Michael Stoute and a decent dual purpose player now switched to Harry Derham. He seems to handle any ground, had a nice pipe opener on the flat last month and should go well. A.
I'm taking three on B, Chutzpal, Wreckless Eric and Clap Of Thunder and, frankly, I'm spready pretty thinly...
[Outside of the placepot, I might risk a penny each way on Dream Escape at 50/1+, just for kicks]
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
And with Cheltenham's pot being so huge, I think we need to check out the six races on good ground that kick off with...
Leg 1 @ 1.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...
LTO winner Push The Button has won three from four, Wyenot is three from five, In The Air comes here on a hat-trick, Support Act has two wins and a runner-up finish from four starts, Letterston Lily has made the frame in six of her last seven (3 wins) and Callin Baton Rouge is three from three since moving yards. Mind you, she finished 2422 on her last four starts for her previous handler.
Most of this half-dozen I've highlighted on form are up a class today, but Letterston Lily drops down after a couple of Class 2 races, whilst Wyenot was third of nine (behind a Festival winner completing a 4-timer) over this course and distance in a Listed contest last time out and now drops two classes.
Push The Button, Wyenot and Support Act all make handicap debuts today off opening marks of 132, 123 and 113 and I think the last two are fairly lenient, especially as the one that beat Wyenot LTO is rated 139.
This half-dozen are my shortlist from which I'm taking (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge. I do like Push The Button, but an opening mark of 132 after 11 months off the track might just be too much, Support Act also hasn't raced for eight months and Letterston Lily is the unlucky one to be left out.
Leg 2 @ 1.50, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m..
Jazzy Matty won the Fred Winter in 2023 but disappointed in four subsequent efforts over hurdles before falling 3 out on his chase debut at Wexford in early August. He was then first and third at the same venue over 2m3½f before being pulled up early at Listowel just over a month ago. he did bounce back to land a 2m5f chase at Sligo last time out, but this race is tougher than he's faced before.
San Salvador won a grade 2 hurdle at Punchestown at the end of 2022, but was pulled up in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham on his last effort over hurdles. He started 4F74 over fences before the penny dropped last month with back to back wins down in trip at Listowel and Roscommon inside eight days, the latter being a Grade 3 which puts him right in the mix here.
Noble Anthem was 2 from 9 on the Flat and was a runner-up in the final two of his four hurdles starts. This will be his third crack at fences, having finished 4th of 13 at Market Rasen in July before winning next/last time out at Sedgefield at the start of this month. That, however, was a Class 4 affair and this is much tougher up two classes.
Path D'Oroux comes from the tard that won this race last year with 4/7 fav My Mate Mozzie and he's likely to go off at similar odds in a race where shorties have done really well. For his own part, he has yet to win any of ten starts over fences, but has been a runner-up in Listed company and has made the frame in Class 1 handicaps at both the Cheltenham & Aintree Festivals this year and this race is probably a weaker affair than he has faced of late and this could be the ideal opportunity to get off the mark, a thought backed up by the performances of both his yard and his rider here at HQ...
(2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux here for me.
Leg 3 @ 2.25, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m...
Dancing On My Own won this race last year, had two creditable Class 1 runs in the spring before finishing second at Killarney in July and then he won at Ballinrobe next/last time out two months ago. Arclight was pulled up in a Grade 2 last time out after winning each of her three previous starts over fences, including two Listed races and drops in class here. Scarface has finished 3312113 in his last seven including a Class 1 handicap win at Sandown and he was third of twelve here at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 handicap on his last run.
Coastguard Station has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five, including a Class 2 success, whilst bottom weight Royal Mer's chasing career read 12152111 before being pulled up at Ayr last time out, but he has ever raced higher than Class 3 and steps up in class today.
The one I would mention whose form doesn't appear great is Matata. he was pretty well beaten in a pair of Grade 1's at the Cheltenham & Aintree Festival this year on his last two runs, but had finished 122 in his three previous outings, the last of which saw him beaten by just half a length in a Grade 2 race at Lingfield. This is a much lower standard today and any return to that kind of form puts him right in the mix, plus he's he likely front-runner in a race that has benefited those willing to set the tempo...
...and it's from this quartet that I'll make my choices. Matata is quite possibly the best runner in the race, whilst Dancing On My Own is proven over course and distance plus his yard's stats stand up well...
Leaving me to pick between Arclight & Scarface. I don't have much between them if truth be told, but Arclight might offer more value in the market, so I'm taking (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight here.
Leg 4 @ 3.00, a 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m½f...
All bar Dancing In Paris won last time out and he's the only one to have been beaten over hurdles as Imaginarium, Strong Foundations, Valgrand, Brave Knight & Gale Mahler are unbeaten in 1, 1, 2, 3 and 4 races respectively. Gale Mahler won her last two bumpers too, so she's now unbeaten in her last six starts and havingh won a Listed race by ten lengths last time out, she has to be the one to beat.
Front-runner Valgrand and Brave Knight look much better than the other three and in a safety-first approach, I'll take all three here; (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler
Leg 5 @ 3.35, a 19-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m1f...
Wow, where to start? Well, we do have the last three winners of this race opposing each other today as Strictlyadancer (2021), Jimmy The Digger (2022) and Mole Court (2023) will all take their shot.
11yo Amateur did win two starts ago, but isn't reliable and has been pulled up in four of his last five. Ceanndana is 3113P21121 in his last ten starts, Jack's Parrot comes here on a hat-trick, Hold Your Fort's last five read 11112 and The Boola Boss has seven to-three finishes from his last nine outings, including three wins, whilst my Instant Expert shortlist looks like this...
Despite this being a 3m1f slog, pace is still key and our pace analyser suggests those on the front end fare best of all in these big field chases...
...which will benefit the likes of Mole Court, Hold Your Fort and The Boola Boss the most, if their recent runs are anything to go by...
So, we've looked at recent form, 2yr stats and pace so far and both Hold Your Foert and The Boola Boss have had a mention in each section, so they're going on my ticket builder today. Mole Court will possibly be the pacemaker, but doesn't arrive here in great form and I think that the reliable/consistent Ceanndana might be a better option for us, so that's (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss.
Leg 6 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m4f...
All bar better Off Alone and Cloonainra come here off the back of a win, but I agree with the bookies in that this should be a two-horse race between (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm.
Minella Sixo won his sole PTP outing back in May before going on to win by eight lengths on his racecourse debut at Fairyhouse 18 days ago and the margin of victory could well have been much more, whilst Potters Charm backed his 11 length bumper win on debut at Ffos Las in March with a 3.5 length victory at Worcester recently defying any ill-effects from a six-month break.
Potters Charm's team are flying right now, so another success wouldn't be a huge surprise...
...whilst Minella Sixo's team do great with LTO winners and horses making their second appearance...
...and since the start of 2020, Gordon Elliott's horses making their second start after winning on debut have made the frame in 47 of 80 (58.75%) races, winning 27 (33.75%) of them
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge
Leg 2: (2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux
Leg 3: (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight
Leg 4: (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler
Leg 5: (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss
Leg 6: (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
December’s a quiet time, isn’t it? Not a lot going on, not much to do, writes David Massey. Not from a racing point of view, anyway. The days are short, which means earlier start times, which means getting up at the crack of dawn to get there, which means an early night the evening before, and usually abstaining from the bottles and bottles of Christmas booze you’ve bought for the festive period. Unless you want to work on the pitch with a sore head all day. And I don’t.
I’ll be doing Kempton Silver Ring next week. It’ll be the first time I’ve ever worked a pitch on King George Day, so that’ll be exciting. What’s less exciting is the 5.45am alarm call to get there in time. I’ll let you know how that goes in my next missive.
Southwell being as it is at the moment - no public, and there won’t be any for the near future, either - means my services are not always currently required at my local. It’s very quiet there, and for a recent meeting that kicked off around 11.20am, we were actually able to count the people attending (around 50) as we sat upstairs, keeping warm.
I have, at least, had more time on my hands to go racing and get some notes down. Last week I went to Leicester, to have a look to see how Apple Away was progressing. I don’t mind a trip to Leicester, although for a track that’s only 35 miles from me, it seems to take ages to get there. Once you come off the M1, you’re in a world of pain; Fosse Park retail traffic to start with, then a whole series of traffic lights, bottlenecks and roundabouts before you get to the track. There’s not a lot to look at, either; no rolling Cotswolds to keep you calm, merely a series of Chinese takeaways, tanning salons, and Betfreds.
The one thing I do miss about Leicester is Reg’s Beef Rolls. An absolute must in the winter months, lovely tender beef mopped up in gravy in a massive bap, all for the bargain price of a fiver. There was always a queue.
That aside, Leicester is a perfectly nice day out. Apple Away was very good, and looks to be improving. Come the end of the day I had a little chat with Jonjo O’Neill about his in the last. Talking to Jonjo always brings a smile to your face. He gives nothing away.
“Did you find a reason why he ran so poorly at Newbury, Jonjo?”
Jonjo looks at the horse, looks at me, and looks at the horse again.
“Which one is this?” he says to the lass, pointing at it. I burst out laughing.
“It’s Regal Blue”, she says. “Nothing came to light.”
I’m just confused and laughing. Forty seconds ago he didn’t know which horse it was!
He actually ran a good race, finishing third and running much better. I think he’ll win one soon.
It was also a great pleasure to meet Malcolm Heyhoe and his partner at Leicester, both there for a day out. I’m sure older readers will remember Malcolm’s columns in the Guardian and Weekender, among others; we had a lovely chat and it turns out Malcolm’s a fan of these Geegeez scribblings. I look forward to bumping into them again in the near future.
Next stop was Cheltenham, at the weekend. On Friday I was free, so was able to do some useful paddock notes and enjoy myself, but Saturday I’d already committed to working on the rails. I found myself next to the ever-jovial Pinno, who had clearly been working on the joint I was on on the Friday. There’s always an easy way to tell; Pinno is the most untidy bookie you’ll come across. All of the previous day’s ripped-up tickets and newspaper were still in the hod, now wet from a bit of rain, and you have to clear them out before you can start. One of these days I’ll charge him for cleaning services. He always calls me “Davey Boy”; “what do you like here, Davey Boy?”, “can we get this jolly beat, Davey Boy?”, “not a lot of business about, Davey Boy”, that sort of thing. I like working next to him, he’s always good fun.
Saturday was not busy. I was taking in the region of 600-700 a race on the rail, steady but nothing outstanding, The biggest bet I took all day was a 1000-200 Nurse Susan in the last, which won, and that sort of tells you how the whole day went. Over the 14 races on the Friday and Saturday, there were eight winning favourites and the biggest priced winner was 9-1 (Madara, I even managed to take a 900-100 that as well), and not many books were smiling as they headed to the car parks at four o’clock.
And finally, lovely Fakenham on Tuesday. Sadly for me, my lift bailed after he’d seen the weather forecast of rain all day, so I had to drive myself on the 250-mile round trip. It’s a good job I actually like driving!
I always keep Google Maps on to update me of any potential issues and one cropped up on the A17 near Sleaford. A lorry had come off the road and gone over into an embankment; it was lucky there was a large hedge there or he’d have gone fully over. I just about managed to creep by the accident, only to hear on the radio ten minutes later the road had been closed. That would have been game over as far as getting to Fakenham went. I often see accidents like that while on my travels and am always grateful not to be in them.
Around 9.40 I was getting peckish and fancied a bacon sandwich, so was pleased to spy a “Hot Food Next Layby” sign near Sleaford. However, on pulling up the guy had already packed up and was preparing to tow his wares away! Either he’d had a jackpot morning or people don’t eat bacon sandwiches on the road after half nine anymore, it seems. A couple of miles down the road was “Michelles” in another layby, and she did provide an excellent bacon roll. All’s well that ends well, and I’m back on the road with a decent cup of tea to boot.
At Fakenham, I’m working with the lovely Julie for the S&D firm and we have a fun afternoon, despite the rain. Plenty of locals have turned up and although it’s mainly small money, it’s busy enough, and the firm wins nicely on the day. Just as well, as my petrol expenses, having driven myself, are on the high side. Plus the bacon roll. The rest of the firm are off to the local Wetherspoons for their dinner, whereas I have the three-hour drive home.
The sky is a beautiful red and, as it starts to turn dark to the west and the light disappears, the colours begin to clash and I manage to get a picture as the last of the daylight goes.
I haven’t got an arty bone in my body, but I do like the snap I managed to take. I hope you do too.
On that note, I’d like to wish all Geegeez readers a merry (and profitable) Christmas and a Happy New Year!
See you all in 2024!
- Dave M
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FakenhamRacecourse.png319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2023-12-20 14:27:352023-12-20 14:27:35Roving Report: It’s beginning to look a lot like Fakers
Last week, as I detailed the overwhelming power of the big yards in the UK and Ireland, on the flat and it seemed even more so over jumps, I should have conceded that there is always room for a talented upstart to pick up a piece of the pie, writes Tony Stafford.
He or she has to have at least one well-heeled and convinced supporter to crash the big boys’ party; but two young Newmarket jumps trainers showed at Cheltenham this past weekend that they are on the fast track to success.
Both are based in the least likely of hotbeds for training jumpers in the UK. Newmarket, for all the merits of the schooling facilities of the Links, just behind Newmarket golf club and across from the Cambridge Road polytrack gallop and thence the Rowley Mile, has fewer jumping trainers than ever. Maybe that will start to change.
Cast your minds back 14 hours to the last race of Cheltenham’s three-day Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting. The favourite, a 9/4 shot, was sent out by a young man who didn’t have his first jumps runners until earlier this year. He made a great start, collecting five wins between the beginning and end of the 2022-23 season in late April.
Another eight successes under NH Rules have followed this campaign and, in between, 13 have come off 50 runs from 25 individual horses in his first campaign on the flat.
Ben Brookhouse is the name and the winners have flowed ever since from the nicely compact and centrally situated Saville House stable, occupied to good effect for many years and still owned by Willie Musson.
Ben’s jewel in the crown as far as buying horses is concerned is his father Roger, a long-standing owner for the Pipe stable. Brookhouse senior has some well-regarded animals sprinkled around a few major Irish yards, notably with Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead.
But the decision was made for Ben to train all the UK runners and yesterday’s impressive second bumper win for Brechin Castle under Jack Quinlan was as decisive as it was noteworthy and eye-catching for both trainer and long-neglected jockey. It ran in Roger’s colours, too!
Jack Quinlan has been just about the only professional jump jockey to be based in Newmarket for several years. Many questioned his stubbornness in remaining close to his family, but the association with Brookhouse has coincided with a general wider appreciation of his qualities.
An Irish point-to-point winner, Brechin Castle was prepared by the champion of the Irish pointer ‘conditioning and selling-on lark’ in Colin Bowe. He upgraded an original €52k yearling buy to a €165k project, merely by winning a point by a length; but as they say, it’s how they do it.
Pointers that turn into bumper and then jumping stars can come from all types of background. Brechin Castle’s sire Shantou died as a 28-year-old: yes, I kid you not, when Brechin Castle was already three years old. His dam’s sire, dual Derby (French and Irish by seven and then four lengths for Henry Cecil) Old Vic was 25 hen he passed away in 2011. Plenty of proven breeding talent to go with Classic performance.
The trick with Irish point winners is to find the ones with a touch of speed. We saw it from Brechin Castle on his UK debut at Sedgefield last month when he stretched 19 lengths clear. Yesterday, he drew alongside a Paul Nicholls previous winner up the home straight and had a comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths to spare at the line of this Listed contest.
Of Ben’s five National Hunt wins before the season change-over, one was Listed bumper horse Aslukgoes, and he won twice with veteran hunter chaser Espoir De Teillee, each time ridden by Fern O’Brien, Fergal’s daughter. He also had a juvenile hurdler and staying novice to complete the eclectic score.
The flat campaign continued to reflect both his versatility and the varied composition of his stable. When we talked at an Epsom evening meeting in the summer, he said how lucky he is to be able largely to buy what he likes when he goes to horse sales. “Sometimes, though, if when I got one home, Dad doesn’t want it, I’m stuck with it until I can find an owner!”
Among the dozen winners, there were a couple of smart two-year-olds, Ben clearly intent on making his name as a dual-purpose trainer. In that respect he is following the example of his latest employer, Ian Williams, to whom he was assistant trainer until branching out this year.
Amazingly, James Owen, the other ground-breaking Newmarket handler to show his credentials at Cheltenham, also only took out his training licence this season. Before that, he had been one of the most successful trainers of Arabian horses in the UK.
He is now fully committed to the new job, though, and recently moved into Green Ridge stables in the Hamilton Road. When I had a connection with horses trained in Daryll Holand’s Exning yard – at the time the late Shaun Keightley was in situ – James Owen stabled his horses in a smart, but small, much newer building just to the right of the entrance.
Gay Kelleway was next door. As I mentioned, Owen was the top trainer of Arabian horses and the old maxim that if you can train one type of horse, you should be able to make a go at others seems to be ringing true in his case.
Owen started even later in the year – after the 2022-23 season end – than Brookhouse, but when Burdett Road, owned by the Gredley family, bolted up in the Triumph Hurdle Trial that opened Saturday’s programme, it made a lot of people take notice of this young man, probably many for the first time.
Burdett Road isn’t the only horse to give a salute to Bill Gredley’s East End of London heritage, Burdett Road going from Mile End Road to Commercial Road [and where the editor plays football on a Saturday morning! - Ed.] For this most successful businessman and Classic-winning owner (User Friendly won two Oaks’s and the St Leger against the boys in 1992), Owen has seven among those to have run so far this year. I doubt that this speedy gelding will be the last to win a good jumps race for his talented trainer, who is already up to 22 for his initial season.
Burdett Road had been a nice three-year-old when trained by Michael Bell, winning the Golden Gates Stakes at Royal Ascot and two other races on the flat before running third in two Group 3 events. A 100-rated horse ought to make a decent hurdler if he stays and on Saturday Harry Cobden was at pains to give the Muhaarar gelding a chance to last out the trip on the testing Cheltenham track.
He sat an exaggerated last of nine and only when they came down the hill approaching the home turn did he make any sort of move. Still three lengths adrift at the final flight, Cobden only needed to clear the obstacle safely. That achieved, he sprinted up the hill for a six-and-a-half length success.
As was pointed out afterwards, none of the Irish we’ll see and fear next March was there - no doubt Mr Mullins is honing the skills of the latest batch of Auteuil acquisitions - but rarely do you see horses scoot up that hill on soft ground in that manner.
James Owen said afterwards he would look forward hopefully to good ground at the Festival next March to harness his speed.
As Nicky Henderson wisely averred yesterday after Jonbon’s authoritative return in the Shloer Chase, a lot can happen before then, but Ben Brookhouse and James Owen will both be picturing a repeat of this weekend’s spectaculars to warm the long winter nights.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/BurdettRoad_CheltenhamNov2023.png318830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-11-20 08:15:522023-11-20 08:15:52Monday Musings: Two Young Guns
In this, and subsequent articles I am picking up the baton from Matt and Jon who have both previously written excellent pieces digging into the profiles of certain trainers, writes Dave Renham. As we are heading into the winter months it makes sense to throw the spotlight on some National Hunt trainers for this latest series. The first trainer I am going to look at is one of Britain's winter luminaries, Paul Nicholls.
I will be analysing nearly ten years of UK racing data from 1st January 2013 to 31st October 2022, the majority of which can be sourced by members using the Geegeez Query Tool. All profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. Of course, we should be able to significantly improve upon the baseline figures of SP using the exchanges or BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed), and I will share Betfair SP data when appropriate.
Paul Nicholls Brief Biography
Born in Gloucestershire on April 17th 1962, Paul Frank Nicholls was educated at Marlwood School. He didn’t carry on into further education because, upon leaving school aged 16, he started working in a point-to-point yard. By the age of 20 he was race riding for Josh Gifford out of Findon, West Sussex, and then, in 1985, he moved to David Barons. His biggest successes as a jockey were back to back wins in the Hennessy Gold Cup (1986 & ’87) and, in his seven year career, he rode a relatively modest 133 winners. However, it is as a trainer that he has really excelled. Nicholls first took out his licence in 1991 but his training career took off in 1999 when he bagged three wins at the Cheltenham Festival, including the Gold Cup with See More Business. He was crowned Champion trainer for the first time in 2005-06 and, since then, has repeated this feat an amazing dozen further times.
Paul Nicholls Overall Performance Record
Below is Paul Nicholls' win record by calendar year:
Every year during the decade or so in review, his win strike rate has exceeded 20% which is impressive. Also, both his win and each way figures are consistent; both can be seen on the graph below:
Nicholls' overall win strike rate across the 10-year period stands at 23%; the each way SR at 43.2%. Breaking down into five-year groups really demonstrates his consistency:
Not surprisingly, though, given the Ditcheat handler's high profile, profits are hard to come by; and if you had backed all 5693 runners you would have lost roughly 12p in the £ to Industry SP. However, this improves to just under a 3p loss in the £ using BSP - not the worst way to lose a few quid with a high strike rate!
At this juncture it is worth mentioning Nicholls does send the occasional runner over to Ireland, but these are extremely rare. Indeed, just 29 runners have crossed the Irish Sea since 2013 with five winning and a further eight getting placed. Backing all his Irish runners would have seen a steep loss of 40p in the £.
It's time to dig a bit deeper.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Race Distance
When Matt dug into the Nicky Henderson numbers we saw a definite preference for shorter distances. What about his great rival Nicholls?
The distance distinction is not as pronounced as with the Henderson data but Team Nicholls do also seem to perform slightly worse in staying races, both from a win and returns perspective. The each way figures correlate, too, with 3 mile+ runners placing just over 36% of the time compared to the other two distance groups which stand at 46.3% (2m1f or less) and 44.8% (2m2f to 2m6f).
Paul Nicholls Performance in 3 mile+ Races
I want to dig into these 3 mile+ races in more detail as I think it is equally important to share negative angles as positive ones; avoiding poor value bets will clearly help our bottom line in the long run.
When we split these longer races into handicap and non-handicap races we get some very interesting results:
One might expect some difference in the win strike rates in favour of non-handicaps, due to quality biases and field size, but it is the returns that stand out. In non-handicap staying races, blanket support would have nudged into BSP profit; whereas in handicap races, losses of 31.58% (SP) are steep and, even using BSP, this only improved to a loss of 23.5% (23.5p in the £).
Here are the splits for 3m+ handicap chases and handicap hurdles:
Here we see similar win percentages, Impact Values and Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices; handicap chases have lost a little less money, but I would suggest these races are generally worth avoiding, unless you have a good additional reason to get involved.
Paul Nicholls Performance in Handicaps at 2m6f or less
Having seen some relatively poor stats for staying handicaps, let me share some more positive data.
As can be seen, Nicholls has recorded much higher strike rates, A/E and IV indices and, in the case of handicap hurdles, the smallest of profits even at starting price. At BSP, however, those profits would be just above the £200 mark to £1 level stakes – this equates to excellent returns of 22p in the £.
Despite this positive performance in handicap hurdle races of 2m6f or less, it is interesting to see the varying win strike rates at different courses. Below are all courses where Nicholls has had at least 40 runners:
There is quite a range here: one might expect lower strike rates at Ascot and Cheltenham due to the competitive nature of the races and, generally, races at these courses have bigger fields. Despite the low win rate, however, Nicholls has made an SP profit at Cheltenham in this context.
I want to share Nicholls' Taunton data specifically, as it is impressive: 18 wins from 71 runners, with a further 22 placed. Taunton SP profits stand at £27.47 (ROI +38.7%). BSP profits would have been increased considerably to +£47.29 (ROI +49.3%).
Paul Nicholls Performance in Non-handicap races
We have already seen that Nicholls has performed well in non-handicap races of 3 miles or further. Here are his overall non-handicap stats across different race types (all distances):
There are not many hunter chase runners per year (average around 13), but that cohort has made a small profit. However, the profit is hugely skewed due to two big-priced Cheltenham winners at 16/1 and 25/1.
His non-handicap chase figures (excluding hunter chases) also look very solid. Below I have broken down this record by age of horse – and it reveals a clear pattern:
There is a definite drop off in success rate in non-handicap chases as the horses hit the age of 8. Horses aged 7 or younger actually made a 3% profit to BSP; those 8 or older would have lost nearly 19% to BSP.
Sticking with these non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) and splitting the performance by starting price gives us the following breakdown:
Clearly horses priced between evens and 9/2 have offered punters good value in the past. The figures in the table above are to Industry SP; using Betfair SP one would have roughly doubled those profits. We can see very good A/E indices, too. In contrast, once starting prices get to 5/1 or bigger, there have been quite significant losses.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Starting Price
We have seen some SP data already, but let us now look at all races as a whole:
The win strike rates go down uniformly as the price bands increase – nothing unusual there. Industry SP losses have been smallest with the shorter priced runners, but the Betfair SP returns on investment are probably more useful to see.
Using Betfair SP sees a much more even return on investment across the price bands (ranging from a high of +1.6% to a low of -7.6%). In contrast to the Industry SP figures, it actually looks more advantageous to focus on runners priced 5/1 or bigger.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Course
I shared a small amount of course data earlier, but I want to dig a little deeper. I am going to look at all courses where Nicholls has had at least 100 runners and break the data down into different subsets. Firstly I am going to look at win strike rate and A/E indices across all races, hurdle races, and chases (again excluding hunter chases). With a ‘par’ A/E index for all trainers at around 0.87, I have highlighted A/E indices of 0.95 or higher (in green) – these are essentially positive. A/E indices of 0.79 or lower (in red) are negative:
There is a good sprinkling of positive A/E indices with not many negative ones; strong overall stats emerge for Fontwell, Newbury and Taunton.
Meanwhile, Haydock fascinates me; here, Nicholls' chase figures are exceptional, showing a 31p in the £ profit to SP, but his hurdle figures at the same course are dire, with a very low strike rate and losses in excess of a bruising 62p in the £. There are some things you just cannot explain!
Now a look at the same courses comparing handicap with non-handicap results using the same colour coding as before:
This time there is a more even split of positive and negative A/E indices. Fontwell and Newbury once again stand out, while Haydock again has hugely conflicting figures – excellent non-handicap results, dreadful handicap ones.
I have dug still deeper at different courses to share with you five positive looking PFN track stats:
At Fontwell in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) the stable has secured 22 wins from 36 (SR 61.1%) for a profit of £9.73 (ROI +27.0%). Using BSP would increase profits marginally to £11.64 (ROI +32.3%);
At Haydock in non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases) horses that started first or second favourite have bagged 10 wins from 16 (SR 62.5%) for a profit of £14.06 (ROI +87.9%). A slight increase again if using BSP with profits up slightly to £15.44 (ROI +96.5%);
In non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton, Nicholls has seen 67 of his 133 runners win securing a strike rate of 50.4%. Backing all runners would have yielded an SP profit of £30.09 (ROI +22.6%); BSP profits stand at £38.38 (ROI +28.9%);
At Taunton if you backed all his runners in hurdle races at 2m1f or less you would have been rewarded with 38 wins from 107 (SR 35.5%) for an SP profit of £19.51 (ROI +18.2%); BSP profits would have been double, at £38.78 (ROI +36.2%);
In handicap hurdle races at Musselburgh, Nicholls has sent only 22 runners on the long trek to such events but nine have won with a further five placing. Returns of over 90p in the £ were achieved to SP; to BSP this increases to 108p in the £. When Harry Cobden has ridden, he has managed five wins and two places from just eight runs.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Horse Run Style
As regular readers of mine will know, running style data is something I believe can often be an important piece of the betting puzzle. To begin with let us see the proportion of runners that fit a specific running style. Geegeez breaks running styles into four:
Led – front runners; horse or horses that take an early lead;
Prominent – horses that track the pace close behind the leader(s);
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;
Held Up – horses that race at, or near the back of the field early.
Here are the splits for Nicholls:
We can see the marked preference for a prominent running style, tracking the early pace. That approach has accounted for over 40% of all runners from the stable. The other three run styles are each around the 20% mark.
From here, let us review the win success rate of each running style:
This is a very familiar pattern, with horses that go to the front and lead early (L) winning a far bigger proportion of races compared to other run styles. Front runners from the Nicholls stable are edging towards winning 40% of the time. Prominent racers also do well, hitting around one win in every four races; but horses that raced mid-pack or to the rear have relatively poor records.
I want to look at favourites now to see their success rate in terms of run style:
We see exactly the same pattern here with early leading favourites having an excellent record. By contrast, if you had backed every Nicholls favourite that ended up racing early in mid-division or at the back, you would have lost a whopping 33p in the £ to SP.
We have seen already that 19.61% of runners from the stable lead when we look at all races as a whole; but this figure differs markedly depending on the race type as the table below shows:
It seems therefore that non-handicap chases are the race types where we are most likely to see a Nicholls horse front run: out of trouble. However, it should be noted that the figures are skewed somewhat as non-handicaps (both hurdle and chase) tend to have slightly smaller average field sizes when compared to handicaps. To mitigate for that, I have chosen an arbitrary field size band so that we can more easily compare ‘led’ percentages across race types. I've selected races of 6 to 8 runners only to see what happens:
So in races of 6 to 8 runners we can see that non-handicaps are still much more likely to see a Nicholls runner at the front of the pack early compared to handicaps. The gap has narrowed but it is still significant. Perhaps the most interesting finding here is that front runners in National Hunt Flat races have increased considerably in these relatively small fields. There were 81 qualifying NH Flat races and Nicholls runners led early in 30 of them. Of these, a good proportion (43.3%) went onto to win.
This is a good time to mention that statistics can be really useful and informative but, naturally, it is important to see the bigger picture as possible. Sometimes stats in isolation can be a little misleading and we need context as much as possible.
Paul Nicholls Performance by Jockey
Onto some jockey analysis now. The table below shows all jockeys to have ridden at least 50 times for Nicholls since 2013, with the proviso that they have had at least one ride for the stable in 2022. I have ordered them by number of rides starting with the most:
Stable jockey Harry Cobden has a very good record on favourites scoring nearly 46% of the time for a break even scenario to SP (profit of 4p in the £ to BSP). However, the stand out here is Bryony Frost – a strike rate of around one win in every four and a profit to boot. If betting every runner of hers at BSP the profits would have risen to £113.87 (ROI +26.8%).
She has done especially well in non-handicap chases thanks to 28 wins from 65 runners (SR 43.1%) for an SP profit of £55.11 (ROI +84.8%). At BSP these returns increase by a few pence to 92p in the £.
Here are three more Frost / Nicholls stats to be aware of:
Their combined record at Ascot, Cheltenham and Kempton is impressive considering the competitive nature of the races at these tracks:
When Frost has taken an early lead, she has won on over of 40% those runners. On hold up horses, though, she has won less than 10% of the time (SR 9.3%);
Frost has an excellent record on horses she has ridden before. 68 winners from 245 rides (SR 27.8%) for a profit to SP of £87.53 (ROI +35.7%); profit to BSP of £127.01 (ROI +51.8%).
Frost is back in the saddle after a lengthy spell on the side lines so hopefully she will continue her success for Nicholls during the remainder of this season and beyond.
Paul Nicholls – Extra stats and nuggets
With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you some extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:
Nicholls' longest losing run over the ten seasons stands at 29. He has had 29 losers in a row on five separate occasions
He has saddled back to back winners (e.g. one horse winning and then his next runner winning also) on 340 separate occasions
There are punters around who occasionally back their favourite trainer or favourite jockey and put their selections in doubles, trebles etc. Hence I thought I would look at what would have happened if you had backed all Paul Nicholls runners in trebles on the days when he had exactly three runners. He has had exactly three runners running on the same day 212 times; the treble would have been landed seven times. However, due to the fact that most prices were quite short, if you had placed a £1 win treble on all 212 days you would have lost £96.59 (ROI -45.6%). Even worse would have occurred on days where he had exactly four runners – if you had backed all four runners in a win fourfold accumulator on each of those days, you would have landed a winning bet just once, losing a whopping £136.09 (ROI -76.9%). I am not saying punters cannot be successful with these types of bets, but the odds are generally stacked against us
Just over 400 horses have run at least five times for Nicholls – of these horses 85% of them have won at least one race
In handicaps the time to catch Nicholls runners is when they have had five or fewer previous runs in a handicap. This cohort has combined to win 291 of their 1624 races. Backing them at BSP would have secured a healthy profit of £243.35 (ROI +15.0%)
Paul Nicholls – Main Takeaways
Below is a summary of the key findings from my research above. It's a handy 'cut out and keep cheat sheet' for those who like such things.
Every year Nicholls has secured an overall win strike rate of over 20%
Distance wise, Nicholls has a relatively poor record in handicap races of 3 miles or more
Handicap hurdle races at 2m 6f or less have seen impressive returns to BSP of 22p in the £
In non-handicap chases (excluding hunter chases), horses aged 7 or younger have produced a small 3p in the £ profit to BSP
Several course stats have been highlighted; three of the strongest being in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh, non-handicap chases at Fontwell, and non-handicap novice hurdles at Wincanton
Over 40% of PFN runners take a prominent position early, of which just over 25% go onto win. His best run style performance comes with front runners / early leaders: they have won 38.5% of their races
Bryony Frost has a good overall record and she has excelled in non-handicap chases
Look for horses in handicaps who have previously had five or fewer handicap runs
Paul Nicholls is an incredibly successful trainer and this article has unlocked a few angles that have proved to be positive in the past. Hopefully they will continue that way for at least some time in the future, too! Also there some negatives that we need to be aware of.
I hope you have enjoyed this piece and I’ll be back next week with a drill down into the stats of another National Hunt trainer, Mr Daniel Skelton.
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Frodon_BadgerBeer.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2022-11-22 09:30:272022-12-07 09:52:17Trainer Profiles: Paul Nicholls
It's been a while since my last missive, mainly because after the last one the good lady and myself took ourselves off to St Ives to celebrate her milestone birthday, writes Dave Massey. You'll not want to hear stories about me traipsing around the coast, visiting art galleries and generally making out I'm far more cultured than I actually am; what you want to know is where I've been racing since I got back.
It started with my first visit to Plumpton this season, that coming on the Bob Champion Charity Raceday, a meeting I do try and get down to each year. Plumpton, like Fakenham, is one of those well-run country tracks where after about four visits, you know the crowd that go there on first-name terms. I love the place, full of genuine race enthusiasts that have their favourites. You can pretty much guarantee a roar going up every time a Chris Gordon or Gary Moore horse hits the front in the closing stages. The former had one winner on the day, the latter two, and I doubt very much that the bookmakers walked away winning.
I'm staying in a hotel in Horsham for a couple of nights, as Kempton and Fontwell are also on the agenda in the next two days. After a long drive down I'm really tired and fall asleep about half ten, only to be woken up around 12.45am as the fire alarm goes off. I'm on the top floor, right at the rear of the hotel, so quickly put trousers and a t-shirt on, grab the phone and wallet and get out as swiftly as possible.
However, I didn't put socks and shoes on, and am stood outside without either. What happens next is bizarre, to say the least; the potted version is a German woman took pity on me, gave me her dressing gown, chatted to me for 15 minutes before asking me my star sign to see if we'd be compatible, and then gave me her room number. I'm not making this up. I mean, I couldn't have looked any worse - disheveled without footwear in the early hours, hair all over the place, yet here we are. After being allowed back into the hotel (no fire, a sensor issue) you'll be pleased to hear, dear reader, I retired to my own room.
Tuesday. I decide, as I'm fairly near, to have an hour at Hove greyhounds before I set off for Kempton. It's depressing to tell you that there couldn't have been a dozen punters there. The place had all the atmosphere of a crypt. It's saying something when the evening Kempton meeting felt busy by comparison. Such a shame, as Hove used to be a really busy little place, even the afternoon meetings drawing enough to make playing the Tote worthwhile. No longer.
A change of plan. I'm supposed to be going to Fontwell on the Wednesday, but I've a share in one running at Worcester and the card, with three novice hurdles and a bumper, looks more appealing. So I set off from Horsham around 7.45 am in bright sunshine, but by the time I get to Worcester around 11.30 it's cold and cloudy and the wind is blowing.
My fallouts with the car park attendants at Worcester have been many over time, but on this occasion all goes smoothly and before you know it, I'm enjoying an early lunch. There aren't many bets to be had on the card, although I do like the giant (and wonderfully named, Trumpton fans) Cuthbert Dibble in the bumper and try a little each-way investment. Third place gets me a small profit back but he's definitely one you want to be taking forward. Lovely big chasing type, he'll do well once he sees some obstacles.
Sadly Blue Suede Shoes, the horse I've a small share in, doesn't complete and leaves us scratching our heads. Too green, or just not a racehorse? I've no doubt her next couple of runs will reveal a lot more.
Thursday. Southwell sees rain, lots of it. It's the usual crowd, and as they don't want to hang around outside between races, it is decided we will all bet to 15 minutes. This means no prices until fifteen minutes before the off, with all the books going up at the same time. This not only gives you time to get a cup of tea and a loo visit between races, but it gives a chance for the market to form properly.
So we open up fifteen minutes before the first. There is one, sole, woman punter in the ring. None of us are in a rush to get her business.
She comes over to me, and looks at the board. To the astonishment of us all, she announces...
"£300 number one, and £100 ew number three."
We all stand there, open-mouthed. What just happened there, then?
It turns out she's one of a party upstairs who have all chipped a fair amount of money into a pot and are basically betting whatever the majority go with. Number 1 wins, and she draws £1300 off us as a start. £300 is invested back and they keep a grand. Sadly for them, they barely back another winner and by the time the last comes around, funds have dwindled.
However, there's a twist. They have their last £300 as a £150 each-way bet on Superstar DJ at 28-1. When it romps home, you can hear the screams a mile away. Over £5k to draw. You have never seen a happier bunch of ladies and we're delighted to pay them out.
And so to the end of the week, and a return to the home of National Hunt. Yes, Cheltenham is back, and I'm working on the rails both days.
The Friday is a quiet day, despite plenty of runners, and there are few big bets flying around. The biggest I take is a £300 Music Drive in the novice hurdle at 13-8, but that stays in the satchel as Mofasa, who looked really well going to post, comes out on top despite a mistake at the last.
The rain just keeps a-fallin' even with the forecasts saying that it ought to have stopped around lunchtime; but Cheltenham, as we know from Champion Chase Day this year, has its own micro-climate and trying to guess the weather here is a game in itself. Two slip up on the Flat in the last and we all agree it's probably a good job there's no more racing on the day.
Saturday is busier. Some old familiar faces in the crowd including Cheltenham member Bridget, who always has her fiver with me. Good judge too, is Bridget, and after she's backed Shearer in the first I remark to her it's always the same old faces in the payout queue!
Things really get going in the handicap chase that follows but Lord Accord is an absolute skinner on my side of the book. Not one single person has backed it with me which, for a Cheltenham handicap, is remarkable. A total payout of £115 on the race on my side, with just the places to reimburse.
That means I can crack on with the next and here comes the money for Pied Piper. Plenty of £200 and £400 bets and they don't have much worry as he quickens clear after the last to win. This payout is bigger, but it's nowhere near as big as it is for Dad's Lad in the next.
Dad's Lad is one of those horses that the public latch on to in a big way. One in three bets I take is on the Mullins charge. The writing is on the wall from some way out as he cruises into contention and, although the winning margin is under a length, the result never really seemed in doubt. £3k to pay out and a bad result.
And of course, the tenners and twenties merchants all back the outsider of three in the novice chase, so Chemical Energy is no good either. Encanto Bruno wins the last as favourite and that puts the nail in the coffin for many of the books. The dark is already descending as we pack away; it's time to head home...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Cheltenham_Rails_Bookmakers.jpg320826David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2022-10-26 08:37:472022-11-30 15:51:22Roving Reports: To Cheltenham, eventually
The 2021-22 jumps season – in a sort of foreplay since the end of April – began on Friday with three days’ intense action at Cheltenham, writes Tony Stafford.
The top five protagonists for the jump trainers’ championship, always supposing that Messrs Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead do not intrude on a private domestic issue, have positioned themselves nicely for imminent take-off.
At this stage Fergal O’Brien leads the way with 72 wins and £622,548. Paul Nicholls is second on £561,628 from 60 winners.
Dan Skelton, boosted by the weekend, is on £531,752 from a modest 39 wins to date; Donald McCain has £466,295 from 65 and Nicky Henderson, well up to scratch with 50 wins, is lagging a little with £397,633 in prizes.
A couple of seasons ago, Dan and Harry Skelton, emboldened by the lavish support of their father Nick, Olympic show jumping gold medallist and icon of his primary sport for the best part of half a century, would have been the numerical summer pacesetters in the title race.
The trio knew that having a base in Warwickshire worthy of housing the best of bloodstock, would need a trigger to attract owners in a sport where they were accustomed to turning to Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls if they wanted their horses trained in the UK. The Skeltons needed numbers and the summer, with the best horses out at grass, was the time to put them on the board.
Even some of those two perennial champions’ owners had already gravitated to the better prizemoney and overwhelming superiority, talent- and numerical-wise of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott over in Ireland. It appears that the latter’s gauche blunder in being seen grinning and brandishing his phone to the camera astride a fallen horse on his gallops has been forgiven if not forgotten. Memories are long – practicalities are instantaneous.
The Skelton team has now clearly made it to the big league as their principal five challengers over the weekend emphasised. Meanwhile the mid-summer void has been comfortably filled by Fergal O’Brien, formerly assistant to Nigel Twiston-Davies and more recently a tenant of his.
The building of a new yard a few miles away enabled the breakaway from Twiston-Davies and was the catalyst for a major step forward last season when he broke 100 winners for the first time.
After two 60’s in a row, the next two campaigns realised 49 and 63 before 104 at 18% and £796k prizemoney in 2020-21.
Such has been the forward momentum that as we enter winter, O’Brien leads both winner and money categories. That reflects a 60k cushion, but Nicholls, Skelton and Henderson all have more obvious candidates for the very big pots which always define the season’s champions.
Fergal’s stable strength has been nicely augmented by the addition of around 60 horses that the BHA’s favoured barrister, Graeme McPherson QC, has bequeathed (not exactly, but you know what I mean!) to them. McPherson was more the money man than the day-to-day trainer, and graceful withdrawal from the licensee position in favour of giving it official satellite yard status is bound to have beneficial results.
Already several former McPherson horses have shown improved form since the merger and if Fergal intends maintaining his fast pace – 11 wins in the last fortnight – he needs the extra ammunition.
He stepped in with the Listed bumper winner Bonttay on the Saturday of the meeting and as she and stable-companion Leading Theatre led a big field up the hill you could imagine both being high-class jumpers further down the line, an opinion the trainer upheld with a snatched comment: “two lovely fillies” as he walked by. The stable seems to have a bigger proportion of fillies than any of their main rivals, but that merely confirms assistant and partner Sally Randell’s assertion that “they are cheaper to buy”.
Success attracts owners, as the Skeltons illustrate, and now new owners are flocking to the softly spoken Fergal. They had a new owner with them at the sale after racing on Friday and he came away with lot 1, Poetic Music, a debut winner of a Market Rasen bumper for John Butler, at £60,000. “She was our number one at the sale too. I’m delighted we got her”, Sally said.
Two-horse races rarely capture the attention of the racegoer, but Friday’s two-and-a-half mile novice chase in which fencing newcomer My Drogo, a brilliant unbeaten hurdler last winter for Dan Skelton, was meeting Henry de Bromhead’s four-time chase winner Gin On Lime.
The younger Gin On Lime, a mare, had penalties which should have ensured My Drogo’s favouritism and so it proved, the home runner 4-9 with 7-4 against Gin On Lime.
Then at the second-last fence, when Skelton was manoeuvring his mount to challenge on the stands side, he hit the fence hard and could not maintain the partnership. Meanwhile on the inside, Gin On Lime also blundered but as she started to sink to the floor Rachael Blackmore did a passable impression of all those rodeo tricks she must have seen in cowboy films and simply stayed glued to the saddle.
The mare recovered her equilibrium with Blackmore soon back in charge and they set off to the final obstacle which Gin On Line crossed with no further problems. Blackmore had been the darling of the last spectator-limited Cheltenham Festival and here, with the aid of her main supporter De Bromhead, was revealing a new sphere of excellence.
If day one was a major setback for the brothers Skelton, on Saturday the wheel of fortune turned with another spectacular run by Third Time Lucki, the first domestic candidate for the Arkle Chase and a welcome one with all that talent waiting to reveal itself on the other side of the Irish Sea.
Maybe it was a job only half done, but two exaggerated celebrations of Harry Skelton as he crossed the line in front twice in succession yesterday showed how much it all means to win at the home of steeplechasing. First he was in splendid isolation on the always-talented Nube Negra in the Schloer Chase and then the long-time absentee West Cork got the better of Adagio and No Ordinary Joe after a battle up the hill in a high-standard Greatwood Hurdle.
Winning big handicap hurdles with horses after a layoff has been part of the Dan Skelton DNA for some time and West Cork was a prime candidate for such a project. Absent since his second in the Dovecote Hurdle in February last year behind Highway One O Two, he had been dropped 5lb for that Grade 2 second place from the 139 he had earned by his easy defeat of a Nicky Henderson 1/3 shot at Huntingdon.
That generosity by the handicapper was the final piece in the puzzle for the stable whereas top-weight Adagio, only a four-year-old, had been assessed to the hilt on his form of last winter. The third horse No Ordinary Joe pulled hard from the outset yet was still there with a big shout starting up the hill. If Nicky can get this unexposed type to settle better there is no limit to the potential of J P McManus’ gelding.
Nube Negra’s victory, emphatically pegging back one previous Queen Mother Chase winner in Politologue and ending the hitherto unbeaten course record of Put The Kettle On, the reigning champion but one who was never going yesterday, was deeply impressive.
It certainly was not lost on the bookmakers, who promoted him to near the top of this season’s market on the two-mile championship, nor on the younger Skelton, who not satisfied merely with standing in the saddle and pointing to the crowd as they crossed the line, then sated his elation with a rapid-fire first pump. He might find it harder to peg back Brian Hughes this winter, but as he says, he has some great horses to ride.
Some jockeys win a championship and simply want more. Harry Skelton will take another one if it comes, but he’s not going to do the running around riding out and touting for rides on other people’s horses. Why would he with animals of the ability of those Cheltenham mounts?
- TS
Last month, Tony Keenan offered a view on fallers in Irish chases in his excellent article here. In it, he showed which courses had the highest percentage of fallers, and which horsemen had had the most 'misfortune' in this regard.
That made for fascinating reading for Irish tracks, so it was a logical next step to conduct a similar exercise for UK tracks. For the purposes of consistency, I've used the exact same parameters as Tony did, though obviously overlayed against British courses, trainers and jockeys.
As a starting point, let's remind ourselves of the year-by-year faller rate in Ireland and UK, presented in a slightly different format from the Irish piece.
There has been a marked drop in the percentage of chase fallers in the sample period. A shrinkage in the average number of runners contesting chases is likely to be a significant factor here: less runners equates to a generally slower pace and to less crowding at fences.
In Britain, various measures have been taken to address ostensible welfare issues, most notably the redesigning of Aintree's Grand National fences.
And, looking at the data on a course by course basis, one can see that Aintree's fences have indeed taken a heavier toll than any other track in Britain (and Ireland for that matter). Not by a fine margin either. Aintree's chase fall/unseat percentage, covering both the Mildmay ('normal' chase fences) and Grand National courses, is above 20%.
The highest in Ireland is 'just' 15.2%, and the next highest in UK - Fakenham - is 12.85%.
Put another way, Aintree has a more than 60% higher faller/unseat rate in chases than any other UK track.
If that is the overview of the theatres, what of the actors? The performance of trainer and jockey are often related, a point which should be kept in mind when perusing the following. Trainers first...
The first thing to note is that none of last season's top 25 trainers has a higher fall/unseat rate than 10% during the seasons 2009/10 to 2014/15. While the range within this relative peer group extends from 5.27% to 9.55%, it may be worth comparing the top end with their Irish counterparts. There, 13 trainers had a 10%+ fall/unseat rate, with the 'most unfortunate' trainer almost matching Aintree's 20% attrition.
The likes of Brendan Powell, Colin Tizzard, Tom George, Charlie Mann, recently retired Richard Lee, Peter Bowen, Jonjo O'Neill, and Venetia Williams deserve praise for the consistency of their jumpers' jumping; which is not to pass any negative judgement on the rest of the top 25, all of whom fall into the realms of relative acceptability when set against the most logical 'control', Ireland.
Finally, turning attention to jockeys, and again looking at the five season performance of last season's top 25 riders, we see a similar story of relatively acceptable fall/unseat rates.
As with trainers, the range is from roughly 5% (precisely 4.46%) to roughly 10% (precisely 10.05%). And as with trainers, the jockey figures compare favourably with their peer group across the Irish Sea; though this time the disparity is less marked.
While twelve of the 25 UK jockeys have a fall/unseat rate lower than Mark Walsh (6.4%), Ireland's most 'sticky' rider, Richie McLernon's UK sample high of 10.05% has just four Irish riders parting company at a more frequent rate, and none higher than 11.6%.
****
So much for the data, but what do they all mean?
Firstly, it is right to acknowledge that this two-dimensional glance at a three-dimensional puzzle is severely restricted by data limitations. There is no comparison with the wider riding/training communities, and no review of whether/how the figures have improved/regressed through the period, by course, trainer or jockey.
Despite those limitations, some inferences can be drawn.
For whatever reasons - likely a combination of field size, stiffness of fences, state of going, and yes, perhaps even horsemanship (whisper it) - fall and unseat rates in Britain are more palatable to the casual observer than the lateral snapshot from Ireland. Certainly they are lower.
The flagship racecourse - Cheltenham - has a commendable 9.55% fall/unseat rate over the course of the dozen seasons in the sample, a period where the average number of chase runners was 11.82. Given that the average chase field size in all UK chases during that time was just 8.08, all concerned deserve plenty of praise.
Of course, Britain has a louder and better (or, probably more correctly, more) accommodated animal welfare lobby. Looking at data from Aintree lends credence to the calls of many outside the sport (and, in fairness, some within) to act.
One, possibly coincidental, observation is the number of sharp tracks with higher faller rates. Fakenham, Windsor (no longer jumping), Catterick and Taunton all share the top (bottom?) five slots and all are nippy little tracks where the fences might be jumped at greater speed than other more galloping venues.
In terms of the UK horsemen and women, all within the sample can be content with their faller rates, with a solitary rider breaching the 10% threshold, and even then by a negligible 0.05%. James Reveley, from a fine racing heritage and a man who spends a lot of time riding in France (which may or may not be relevant), has the lowest fall rate of all at just 4.46% during the period.
And perma-champ, AP McCoy, was bested by just six riders on this count, his fall/unseat rate being an excellent 5.69% across over 1650 chase mounts during the five season period. That bare figure is better than all of the top 25 riders from Ireland, though again, caution is taken not to under-estimate the macro differences between the two jumping jurisdictions.
At the other end of this microcosmic spectrum, it may be more than coincidence that five of the seven 'fallingmost' jockeys in the list ride on the northern circuit. I have no obvious or logical suggestion as to why this might be, so it may not be more than coincidence!
In the finish, the charts are probably more interesting than actionable; and the conclusions almost certainly more conjecture than empirical fact. But it was a fun little exercise and perhaps there is some fiery utility amidst the number smoke and mirrors.
What catches your eye in the data? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/newgrandnationalfences.jpg465640Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2016-01-06 20:23:012017-05-16 08:08:20Why Horses Fall (Part 2)
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