Posts

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.15 Thirsk : My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner...

Why?...

Top weight drawn wide (stall 6) over 7.5f at Chester just a week after finishing down the field at Goodwood? Surely not, I hear some cry.

Yes, he was 9th of 12 a week ago, but was unlucky in not getting a run and was still only beaten by two lengths in a bit of a scrambled finish. And if we look at this very race last year, Oh This Is Us was drawn out in stall 9 conceding weight all round, a week after finishing 6th of 8, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Goodwood, yet managed to win quite cosily in the end off a mark 3lbs higher than today.

His career record stands at 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 34.14pts (+75.9% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 11 wins, 7 places from 39 over 7-8 furlongs
  • 8 wins, 5 places from 20 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 6 places from 18 going left handed
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 18 at Class 2
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 23 off a mark of 101-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from three here at Chester
  • 2 wins from within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 over 7.5f (C&D in this race last year)

His trainer Richard Hannon is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 12.91pts (+58.7% ROI) here on the Roodee over the past two seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.91pts (+217.4%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6.51pts (+40.7%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 8.51pts (+60.8%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 13.33pts (+78.4%) on Good ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.14pts (+201.9%) at Class 2
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.18pts (+157%) for prizes worth £20-30k

...from which those sent off shorter than 6/1 within a fortnight of being unplaced LTO are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 14.51pts (+181.4% ROI), including Oh This Is Us' two wins and a place from three visits here...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.20pm on Friday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

7.10 Newmarket : Baba Ghanouj @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up in touch in last trio, not clear run and switched right 2f out, headway under pressure to press leading pair 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gabrial The Saint @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on good ground worth £11828 to the winner...

Why?...

Horses for courses this time, as well as a well known owner for this particular course. Marwan Koukash notoriously loves a Roodee winner, and he's doubly represented in this five furlong sprint. *Watch your bets alert*

While Gabrial The Devil may be marginally preferred in the early betting skirmishes, it is the course form of Gabrial The SAINT that appeals on a fiendish Saturday.

A winner of three of his 15 turf starts, two of them have come at this tight bullring track, from just seven runs.

Looking specifically at handicap course form, he's a string of 1241.

Interestingly, for a son of crack sprinter Society Rock out of a mare by Compton Place (another fine sprinter), he's only had three tries at the minimum. The sole spin over five at Chester resulted in victory in similar Class 3 company.

Let's underpin the horse for course form with a draw stat: inside stalls have a famous advantage over the Chester minimum. Gabrial The SAINT has trap three and, while not the quickest starter, the good - possibly good to soft - ground should enable him to stalk and pounce after the cutaway in the straight.

Interestingly, Richard Fahey runs him back within a week, an approach he deploys with a good amount of success for such a volume trainer. In the last two years, he's run 96 horses within a week of their prior start, 22 of them winning (23%, +14.62, A/E 1.29, IV 1.59).

It's a very competitive race, with 'the Good Doctor' (and his trainer) cheering three of the 13 runners, but in spite of that there are reasons to believe this lad is somewhat over-priced...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gabrial The SAINT @ 7/1 BOG as was available at 5,.30pm on Friday with bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.00 Yarmouth : Scale Force @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Good ground worth £6404 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner last time out a fortnight ago taking his career tally to 4 wins from 34. This, admittedly, isn't a great record, but his four wins do include...

  • all 4 in fields of 6-12 runners
  • all 4 going left handed
  • 3 in June/July
  • 2 at 1m4f/1m4.5f
  • 2 at Class 4
  • 2 wearing a tongue tie
  • 1 here at Chester (that LTO C&D win)

His trainer Tim Easterby is no stranger to this track and its winners enclosure either, saddling up 12 winners from 69 handicaps (17.4% SR) here over the last three (inc. the one) seasons that have rewarded punters with 34.7pts (+50.3% ROI) profit backed blindly, which isn't a bad starting point.

Refinements to the above available today include...

  • 12/62 (19.4%) for 41.68pts (+67.2%) in fields of 7-13 runners
  • 10/62 (16.1%) for 32.7pts (+52.8%) from male runners
  • 9/25 (36%) for 34.18pts (+136.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 42.98pts (+126.4%) at 6-15 days since last run
  • 8/42 (19.1%) for 19.3pts (+46%) from 4-7 yr olds
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 31.24pts (+107.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 20.98pts (+99.9%) in June/July
  • 5/27 (18.5%) for 20.76pts (+76.9%) off a mark (OR) of 70-80
  • 3/10 (30%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) in June
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 7.11pts (+88.9%) from those with 1 previous C&D success

...whilst males sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 in 7-13 runner handicaps after a break of 10 to 40 days are 6/10 (60% SR) for 34.49pts (+344.9% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Super Kid @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday Race Previews: Chester & Goodwood

The latest in a periodic feature designed to showcase various elements of the Geegeez Gold toolkit, as well as hopefully bag winner or three, I've run the rule over two races on Saturday. Both feature draw and pace biases which might help to shortlist the winner.

The Chester race has a positive bias while the Goodwood heat has a negative bias. Of course, horses do overcome biases but that is not generally the way to wager (unless the price vindicates the play).

Have a watch of the video and sharpen up your usage of the draw and pace tools in particular.

Matt

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

8.35 Southwell : Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Led over 4f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd and weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner (was originally 13!), Class 2, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good To Soft worth £21165 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won 2 of his last 5 contests and most probably needed the run when not disgraced in finishing fourth up at Musselburgh in this grade last time out, just under three weeks ago despite coming back from a layoff of 164 days.

Providing there's no ill feeling from that run, I'd expect him to be challenging for honours today and improving an already decent career record that currently stands at 6 wins from 28 (21.4% SR) for 27.9pts (+99.6% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 6 from 26 (23.1%) over 5f
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for trainer Tim Easterby (more on him shortly)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) at Class 2
  • 4/17 (23.5%) off a mark (OR) of 91-100
  • 6/14 (42.9%) when rested more than 1 but less than 3 weeks
  • 3/11 (27.3%) under jockey David Allan
  • 3/5 (60%) in May
  • 2/3 (66.6%) going left handed
  • 2/3 (66.6%) here at Chester
  • and 2/2 (100%) over course and distance

He does like to race prominently or even lead and getting drawn in stall 1 without too much apparent pace too close to him, he could well grab a soft uncontested lead and prove difficult to overhaul, giving him a great chance to also improve his trainer's record at this venue, as...

...Tim Easterby + Chester handicaps + last 3 seasons = 14/78 (18% SR) for 39.3pts (+50.4% ROI), including of note today...

  • at 6-20 dslr : 12/54 (22.2%) for 51.5pts (+95.3%)
  • 10-13 runners : 9/47 (19.2%) for 42.7pts (+90.8%)
  • sub-9/1 runners : 12/37 (32.4%) for 46pts (+124.3%)
  • over 5-6 furlongs : 8/37 (21.6%) for 45.7pts (+123.6%)
  • finished 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.9pts (+143.9%)
  • previous track winners : 7/33 (21.2%) for 31.6pts (+95.7%)
  • 1-6 previous distance wins : 8/29 (27.6%) for 47.3pts (+163.2%)
  • under jockey David Allan : 4/19 (21.1%) for 8.28pts (+43.6%)
  • and previous C&D winners : 4/16 (25%) for 11.11pts (+69.4%)

...whilst based upon the above...Sub-9/1 runners running in fields of 6-12 runners, 6-20 days after a top 5 finish LTO are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 34.6pts (+182.3% ROI), including 4 wins from 9 (44.4%) for 21.92pts (+243.6%) over 5/5.5 furlongs...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, although Betfred/Totesport were offering 3/1 (non-BOG until the morning). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Overall leader far side, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2nd towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6081 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 15 days ago when comfortably landing the spoils over this very course and distance in a better race (Class 3) than this one, despite being poorly drawn in stall 8 of 10.

His trainer Andrew Balding has got his runners firing of late, as his Flat handicappers are 19 from 86 (22.1% SR) for 8.27pts (+9.61% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long-term (ie since 2010) his record here on the Roodee stands at 61 from 265 (23% SR) for 157.4pts (+59.4% ROI).

These are excellent track records and include of relevance/note today...

  • handicappers at 42/166 (25.3%) for 116.8pts (+70.4%)
  • over the last three seasons : 29/116 (25%) for 96.8pts (+83.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 30/107 (28%) for 92.9pts (+86.8%)
  • in September : 18/67 (26.9%) for 33.5pts (+50%)
  • LTO winners are 12/54 (22.2%) for 33.7pts (+62.5%)

And that LTO winners stat isn't restricted to Chester as since 2012, Mr Balding's LTO winners are 137/664 (20.6% SR) for 142.9pts (+21.5% ROI), including 72 winners from 337 (21.4%) for 126.5pts (+37.5%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs.

Our jockey today is Joshua Bryan, who didn't have a ride yesterday, but did win both his contests on Thursday over at Pontefract, firstly landing an SotD win on Francis Xavier, before winning for Andrew Balding later on the card.

Joshua has already won three races here at Chester this season from just 12 (25% SR) handicap contests for profits of 14.72pts (+122.7% ROI) and these include...

  • over 6 to 7.5 furlongs : 3/6 (50%) for 20.72pts (+345.4%)
  • for Andrew Balding : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.52pts (+21.7%)
  • and over 6 to 7.5f for Mr Balding : 2/4 (50%) for 4.52pts (+113%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by ten different firms at 6.00pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2017

Friday's Result :

1.20 Doncaster : Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : With leader, effort 2f out, ridden and one pace over 1f out, no impression with winner when lost 2nd inside final furlong...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance here and arrives at the Roodee in great form, having finished 1121 in his last four outings, including a win over course and distance last time out.

The jockey from that day, Connor Murtagh, now rides him for a second time and was able to take 3lbs off a mark of 77 for that win seven weeks ago. Today he takes 7lbs off 90 and with 4lb allowance (W4A), they should still be competitive.

Dan Troop is currently 3 from 6 on the Flat, including...

  • 3/5 at 7/7.5 furlongs , 3/4 this year, 3/4 after a rest of three weeks or longer
  • 3/3 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2, 2/3 in handicaps, 2/3 going left handed
  • 1/1 at Class 3, 1/1 here at Chester, 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 on Soft ground and 1/1 under Connor Murtagh.

Also...trainer Richard Fahey's handicappers at 7/1 and shorter with CD next to their name who also won LTO (anywhere) are 19/77 (24.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+13.5% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, of which...

  • those running over the same course and distance as LTO : 16/65 (24.6%) for 13.12pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 13/52 (25%) for 16.6pts (+31.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+30.4%)

AND...males racing at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs over the same course and distance as LTO = 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 7pts (+39% ROI)

Finally, Connor Murtagh is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 16.85pts (+187.2% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter on the back of a Richard Fahey handicapper here at Chester.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 , Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 7.25pm on Friday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2017

Friday's Result :

3.55 Ascot : Appeared @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, steadied 10f out, headway from 5f out, driven 2f out, disputing 2nd when bumped over 1f out, soon short off room and squeezed out, beaten after, no extra final 150 yards.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

In a bid to return to some semblance of form (the last couple of weeks have been tough going), I'm stripping SotD back to basics today and keeping it relatively simple/straightforward.

I like the horse's chances here, and she's acquitted herself in her five starts to date, finishing 34212 so far. She was a runner-up when last seen at Newmarket four weeks ago, but now drops in class to run in this open age handicap amongst just her own sex where she'll receive a healthy/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance.

On top of the form/weight issues, there's the Johnny G factor ie trainer John Gosden and his decent record here on the Roodee which has seen him land 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 11.4pts (+17% ROI) here since 2010. 26.9% is a decent strike rate indeed, but in respect of today's contest, his 67 runners here have the following strike rates...

  • 66.6% were runners-up LTO (2 winners from 3)
  • 34% when sent off at 5/1 and shorter (17/50)
  • 33.3% racing over 7 to 11.5 furlongs (16/48)
  • 30.4% racing at class 4 (7/23)
  • 29.4% in fillies' races (5/17)
  • 29.2% as 3yr olds (14/48)
  • 27.3% from his female runners (6/22)
  • and 26.4% from those racing after a break of 11 to 45 days (14/53)

She's also quite likely to go off as favourite and jockey Kieren Fox is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+27.9% ROI) on handicap favourites since the start of 2013, with those racing over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs winning 13 of 25 (52%) for 19.08pts profit at an ROI of some 76.3%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports & Paddy Power at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.00 Ayr : Logi @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old colt, just 40 days into a racing career that saw him win over this trip at Doncaster before narrowly failing to back it up a fortnight later last time out, beaten by three quarters of a length.

We have some excellent writers here at Geegeez and it's rare that any of the races I choose overlap with those writers and I always prefer to avoid reading any other content before making my picks, so I'm not swayed either way. So, after putting up Requinto Dawn at 6.45pm, I then spotted the Andy Newton's TV Trends piece (which is right here) and for those who haven't seen it, you really should as it's very good indeed.

Anyway, as usual , I digress! My point was that I took a look at Andy's piece and I found that of the last 15 winners of this particular race...

  • 15 had had a recent run (ours ran 25 days ago)
  • 14 had a top 3 finish LTO (2nd)
  • 12 were favs finishing 1st or 2nd LTO (11/8 fav)
  • 11 had already won at this 5f trip (won on debut)
  • 4 of the last 11 were also drawn in stall 5.

And to be honest, I felt like Andy had done my job for me! But, as an Irish comedian once said, there's more!

Further reinforcement comes from the fact that trainer Richard Fahey's 2 yr olds are 21/102 (20.6% SR) for 60.25pts (+59.1% ROI) here at Chester over the last seasons, which in respect of today's contest look like this...

  • in non-handicaps : 19/72 (26.4%) for 71.6pts (+99.4%)
  • making a debut today or 2nd,3rd or 4th LTO : 17/63 927%) for 80.5pts (+127.8%)
  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 14/61 (23%) for 10.4pts (+17%)
  • those carrying 9st 2lbs to 9st 5lbs are 12/44 (27.3%) for 40.5pts (+92.1%)
  • and in May : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.2pts (+150.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 6.45pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Some thoughts for Chester’s May meeting

Chester's May meeting is an early season highlight, offering socialites, more serious racegoers and the occasional Derby aspirant the chance to peacock around the Roodee. The famous bullring circuit, just nine furlongs in circumference, is fiendishly tight and there is a commensurate bias to those who are agile - and fast - enough to slide around the inside banister.

geegeez.co.uk has more information on Chester racecourse here. But what can we say specifically about the May meeting at Chester?

Chester May Meeting: Trainers

Using geegeez.co.uk's new Query Tool (QT) enables us to look at recent trainer form for a specific event like this. To do so, select the month of May, and Chester in the course area:

Specifying Chester's May meeting in geegeez's Query Tool

Specifying Chester's May meeting in geegeez's Query Tool

 

By placing a check in the circle to the left of the 'TRAINER' parameter and clicking 'Generate Report' again, we can see trainer performance for the Chester May meeting. I've sorted by number of wins in the image below.

Outstanding training performances by Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden at Chester in recent years

Outstanding training performances by Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden at Chester in recent years

 

The performance of Messrs. O'Brien and Gosden is spectacular, the former recording a 43.5% win strike rate, the latter a 63% in the frame record. And that from approximately five runners each per year.

 

Handicap trainers

But what of the handicaps only? There are some super competitive heats over the three days and, at that slightly lower level, different training names come to the fore. Let's add HANDICAP to our list of filters, and do the same 'Group by Trainer' report:

Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop have excellent records, and Sir Michael Stoute has been very unlucky in Chester May handicaps

Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop have excellent records, and Sir Michael Stoute has been very unlucky in Chester May handicaps

 

It is easy to see that Ed Dunlop and, from a larger sample, Andrew Balding have fared really well in Chester May meeting handicaps. But it is also worth noting Sir Michael Stoute: his two from fifteen record is unremarkable, until we note that more than half of them have hit the board. It would be no surprise to see Sir Michael's fortunes change this week.

What about the top races?

Selecting Class 1 (i.e. Listed or Group) races only confirms the stranglehold that Team Ballydoyle has on the big races at Chester's May meeting.

Aidan O'Brien has a mighty record in Class 1 events at Chester's May meeting

Aidan O'Brien has a mighty record in Class 1 events at Chester's May meeting

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Aidan O'Brien has won 16 of the 40 Pattern races run at Chester in May since 2009. That's 40% of them, from just 34 runners. His performance is incredible and looks set to continue this week with a typically strong hand of three-year-olds and older horses.

 

Chester May Meeting: Draw

As alluded to in my introduction, the draw at Chester has a huge bearing on how races are run, especially over sprint distances. Using geegeez.co.uk's Draw Analyser tool, we can see just how relevant a good draw generally is, especially when the going is on the quick side. The forecast is largely dry for the week and the current going description is good, good to firm in places.

Five furlong handicaps

Let's plug that into our Draw Analyser, along with a selection of handicap races only and 10+ runners; and we'll initially look at five to five and a half furlong races.

Low is heavily favoured at the shortest trips; and high is heavily UNfavoured

Low is heavily favoured at the shortest trips; and high is heavily UNfavoured

 

I wanted to include the constituent draw table so that you could see the strong linearity in the place percentages of finishers by stall position. That stall 1 has made the frame in two-thirds of all five and five-and-a-half furlong sprints in big fields on quick ground since 2009 is telling. No wonder so many absentees emerge from the car park post positions.

 

Six and seven furlong handicaps

So far so obvious, perhaps, though it is always interesting to note the concrete evidence data provides to support or resist a general perception. But what of longer sprint trips? What of six- and seven furlong handicaps? A quick change to the distance ranges and we have our answer:

Still an inside draw bias, but it is less pronounced over 6 and 7furlongs at Chester

Still an inside draw bias, but it is less pronounced over 6 and 7furlongs at Chester

 

As you can see, there is still a bias towards those drawn low but it is not nearly as pronounced as over the shortest distances. Indeed, middle drawn horses have fared pretty much as well as those on the inside, but it is still the case that a high draw is a very difficult condition to overcome.

Notice at the bottom the Heat Map. This is a simple chart that attempts to overlay the historical draw positions against a horse's run style. The arrow formation top right in the chart implies a bias towards early speed and an inside to middle draw.

Conversely, note the relatively poor performance of those drawn high, regardless of run style; and it also looks difficult to overcome a low draw if you're a hold up sort racing at six or seven furlongs in a double digit field.

None of the sample sizes used here are particularly big, so keep in mind that the above is indicative rather than assertive. But it confirms what is often said: it is very difficult to overcome a wide draw in a big field on fast ground at Chester.

 

Chester May Meeting: Jockeys

Can a jockey make a difference at Chester? Most riders are, to a large extent, hostages to the fortunes of their trainers and horses; but at the more unconventional courses, can it be an advantage to have an experienced pilot in one's corner?

Although the answer is probably yes, there is a degree of cause and effect in that if a jockey gets a reputation as being skilled over a certain circuit he is more likely to pick up the plum rides. The flip side is that, if a jockey is retained by a particular stable, he will be susceptible to the form of that yard.

Regardless, here is QT on Chester May meeting jockey performance, in handicaps only.

The top handicap jockeys at Chester's May meeting since 2009

The top handicap jockeys at Chester's May meeting since 2009

 

Some interesting gen comes to light here. First, that example of positive discrimination: Francis Norton is widely held as the 'go to guy' for Chester, and he certainly does ride the track very well as can be seen from his seven handicap winners at this meeting since 2009. But they've come from 64 rides, an 11% clip, and just 0.85 on the A/E scale.

Compare that with Jamie Spencer, supposedly a hold up rider on a speed-favouring track. His nine winners have come from just 48 rides at an A/E of 1.54. Not only that but he can back up a 19% win rate with a 44% place rate. Jamie Spencer, in fact, is one of the best judges of pace in the weighing room, from the back or the front of the field. He gets it wrong sometimes - that's an occupational hazard - but I'd never be put off a bet at any track with Spencer in the plate (and yes, I have changed my position on this in recent years!)

Lower down, Steve Donohoe is an interesting name. His three handicap winners from 20 rides is fine - good even - but nine podium finishes is a very solid effort. He could be worth keeping onside.

 

Chester May meeting: Summary

We're all set for three excellent days of racing on the Roodee. With a little luck we'll come out in front by noting the above. In some ways, there is nothing new in trumpeting the form of Aidan O'Brien in Class 1 races at the meeting, nor in flagging that inside draws have the best of it in bigger field sprints on fast ground.

But such awareness can become the cornerstone of a betting strategy for the week. If playing placepots or intra-race bets like exactas and trifectas, knowing that Jamie Spencer is a high strike rate handicap jockey, or that Andrew Balding and Ed Dunlop should always be in mind in Chester handicaps, or even that Aidan's horse probably will win the Derby trial, will help frame decisions about when to go narrow and when to go deep.

Good luck with your Chester May meeting wagers - it should be a terrific three days!

Matt

p.s. if you'd like more race-by-race statistical lowdown, check out these Chester TV Trends: Wednesday

 

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2016

Friday's Result :

5.15 Worcester : Miss Crick @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led 2 out, clear flat, comfortable win by 8 lengths)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle of Medinah at 9/2 BOG

Why?

It might well be a whole year on Monday since this 5yr old gelding last won a race, but it's worth remembering that the win came in a Group 3 contest and he's been asked to carry too much weight ever since.

He was paired up with the promisingly talented Lulu Stamford for the very first time when last seen 15 days ago and that resulted in his best run since that big win a year ago. Lulu is very good value for her 7lb claim and this allowance allied to a falling handicap mark has made this horse very competitive again.

Lulu is riding well, as seen by her 4 wins and 4 placed finished from 14 rides in the last 4 weeks (she just needs more rides!), including that runner-up finish on Miracle of Medinah for trainer Mark Usher, whose horses are 2 from 8 since that race.

This horse now takes a further drop in class after being headed very late on last time out and Mark Usher's Flat handicappers dropping down a grade are 10/73 (13.7% SR) for 39.9pts (+54.7% ROI), from which...

  • those last seen 11-25 days ago are 9/47 (19.1%) for 50.3pts (+107.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd to 5th LTO are 6/28 (21.4%) for 21.5pts (+76.6%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/9 (33.3%) for 38.9pts (+432%)

AND...those who finished 2nd to 5th, 11 to 25 days ago are 6/20 (30% SR) for 29.5pts (+147.5% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miracle of Medinah at 9/2 BOG, which was available in at least 10 places at 9.20pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends – 10th Sept 2016

Like all big race days Andy Newton is on hand with the key TV trends - this Saturday the C4 cameras head to Chester and Doncaster, and include the Ladbrokes St Leger - the final Classic of the 2016 turf flat season - plus we've also got the Irish Champion Stakes, from Leopardstown, covered for you this week.

 

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (More4/ATR)

 

2.00 - At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f More4

14/15 - Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/15 – Had won over 7f before
13/15 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
12/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – Finished third or better last time out
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or the Curragh last time out
8/15 – Raced 3 or more times that season
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won by Godolphin
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/15 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/15 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/15 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4.2/1
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

 

2.35 - Ladbrokes Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y More4

14/14 – Carried 8-12 or more
12/14 – Won over 6f before
11/14 – Had run 5 or more times that season
11/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/14 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
11/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Won 4 or more times in their career
10/14 – Run at Doncaster previously
8/14 – Unplaced Favourites
6/14 – Placed in their last race
6/14 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 6 of last 8 years)
6/14 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/14 – Raced at Ripon last time out
3/14 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13.4/1

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.10 – The Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f More

11/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/13 – Run 3 or more times that season
11/13 – Won 3 or more times before
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/13 – Won over 7f before
10/13 – Won a Group race previously
10/13 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
9/13 – Unplaced in their most recent race
9/13 – Aged 4 or older
7/13 – Placed horses from stall 1
5/13 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/13 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 7 runnings
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.45 - Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y CH4

 

13/14 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won a Group race before
10/14 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/14 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
9/14 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/14 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
8/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
6/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – USA-bred winners
3/14 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 4 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 7/1

 

Chester Horse Racing Trends (More4/RUK)

2.15 – Betway Handicap Cl3 7f122y More4

Only 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 8-13 or more
6/6 – Aged 4 or older
6/6 – Came from stall 5 or higher
5/6 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
4/6 – Aged 4 years-old
3/6 – Returned a double-figure price
2/6 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/6 – Carried 8-13
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/1

 

2.50 – Betway Stand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f66y CH4

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Had won at least twice before
9/10 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/10 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/10 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Rated between 102-110
7/10 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
7/10 – Won at Listed or Group class before
6/10 – Favourites that finished either 1st or 2nd
4/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Had run at Chester before
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/10 – Trained by Pat Chamings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3.7/1

 

Leopardstown Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

6.45 - QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f 

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Previous Group 1 winner
12/14 – Won 4 or more times before
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Ran at York, Sandown or Ascot last time out
11/14 – Rated 120+
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
9/14 – Trained in Ireland
8/14 – Aged 3 years-old
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/14 – Previous course winners
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Returned odds-on
2/14 – Won the Coral Eclipse last time out
2/14 – Trained by John Oxx
2/14 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 3/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Fact Of The Matter - Is a nice horse. He won his bumper well, but struggled over hurdles in softer ground. He's had a wind op over the summer and he's been jumping well at home. This former point winner looks to be on a competitive mark despite this looking an open race, but went well fresh last time (won first time out) so no issues on that front and hoping the hood can help today too. Tough race, but the horses are running well so hopeful of a nice e/w run today."
Jamie Snowden

06/09/16 1st 5/1

"Purple Party - Ran well last time on her first run for the stable when fourth of 14 here at the track. Only fifth career run here today so and seems to be getting the hang of things. The only slight concern is the drop back in trip - but the horse has come out of that last race well and we think still has every chance."
Gary Moore

05/09/16 1st 9/2

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2016

Friday's Result :

8.40 Musselburgh : Qaffaal @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to beat his 14/1 stable mate by a length, securing a 27.5/1 forecast for Mick Easterby in the process.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Rated as high as 83 already and in consistently good form despite winning, his four consecutive runner-up finishes are clearly the best form on show here today. His latest run, at Beverley 18 days ago, saw him come within a neck of breaking his duck. An interesting development from that race is that the third placed horse, Haraz, was a length and a quarter further back, but improved to also get within a length of winning on Friday night, so if the form holds out...

That conjecture aside, what we do know is that his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has found Chester to be a happy hunting gorund over the last half dozen years, but more particularly since the start of the 2014 season. He may well have only sent 33 runners here in that time, but 8 winners (24.2% SR) and 26.4pts (+80% ROI) profit are numbers worth taking notice of, especially under today's race conditions, where those horses are...

  • 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 33.4pts (+128.5% ROI) as 2 to 5 yr olds
  • 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 34.2pts (+148.7% ROI) 16 to 60 days since their last run
  • 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 32.53pts (+180.7% ROI) carrying 8-09 to 9-04 inclusive
  • 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 40.2pts (+236.5% ROI) at odds of 3/1 to 9/1
  • 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+168.1% ROI) at Class 4
  • 4/10 (40% SR) for 20.77pts (+207.7% ROI) in non-handicaps
  • 3/10 (30% SR) for 13.35pts (+133.5% ROI) under jockey Shane Gray
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.8% ROI) in maidens
  • 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 18.53pts (+264.7% ROI) from those with a top 2 finish LTO

Also, in additon to the above... 3-5 yr olds, racing over 7f to 8.5f on the Flat, 6 to 30 days after finishing 2nd or 3rd and were also placed in the first three in the two races prior to that run (ie 3 x top 3 in a row, but lost LTO) are 171/756 (22.6% SR) for 212.2pts (+28.1% ROI), broken down with today's race in mind, as follows...

  • 3yr olds are 126/552 (22.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+38.3% ROI)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 106/423 (25.1% SR) for 159.1pts (+37.6% ROI)
  • in non-handicap contests : 55/173 (31.8% SR) for 186.2pts (+107.6% ROI)
  • in maidens : 27/62 (43.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+19.8% ROI)
  • those beaten by a neck or less LTO are 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 51.5pts (+93.7% ROI)
  • and here at Chester : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+88.1% ROI)

AND, from the above... 3 yr olds in non-hcps, who were runners-up LTO are 28/74 (37.8% SR) for 141.9pts (+191.7% ROI), of which maiden races produced 18 winners from 35 (51.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+44.6% ROI) and those beaten by a neck or less are 11/25 (44% SR) for 42.43pts (+169.7% ROI), leading to...

...3yr olds in maidens, beaten into 2nd place by less than 1 length last time out are 13 from 17 (76.5% SR) for 17.5pts (+102.9% ROI)

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.50 pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Sat TV Trends: 28th May 2016

The C4 cameras head to Haydock and Chester this Saturday for seven races – As always Andy Newton’s got them all covered from a trends & stats angle!

tvtrends-300x73

 


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

 

2.00 - Free Bet at 188Bet Handicap Cl3 1m CH4

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Rated between 82-90
8/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had raced at Haydock before (4 won)
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/10 – Placed horses from stall 10
6/10 – Irish bred winners
3/10 – Winners from stall 10 (3 of last 5)
1/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2


2.35 - 188Bet.co.uk Stakes (Registered as The Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y CH4

13/13 – Had won over at least 10f before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Aged 4 years-old
10/13 – Rated 92 or higher
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Had run at Haydock before
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Neil Callan
2/13 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Miss Marjurie won the race 12 months ago

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3.10 - Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

13/13 – Rated 107 or higher
12/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had won over 7f before
10/13 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
8/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
4/13 – Had run at the track before
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Aged 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1


3.45 - 188Bet Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f CH4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times before
11/12 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
10/12 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – From stall 5 or higher
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/12 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/12 – Raced at York last time
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1
William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015


Chester Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 – Betway Fillies´ Handicap Cl3 6f18y CH4

1 previous running
Trainer David Elsworth is 1-from-1 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 22% record at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 1 from 20 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey David Probert has a 21% record riding 3 year-olds here
Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds here
Jockey Shane Gray has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds here


2.50 – Betway Handicap Cl2 7f122y CH4

1 previous running
Richard Fahey trained the winner in 2015
Trainer John Ryan has a 75% record with his older runners at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 21% record with his runners at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 28% record with his runners at the track
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 33% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 2 from 38 with his older horses at the track


3.25 - Champions League Final Betting At Betway Handicap Cl3 1m5f89y CH4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Won between 1-3 times (flat) before
5/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
5/6 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Had raced at Chester before
4/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Unplaced favourites
4/6 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
4/6 – Rated between 76-83
4/6 – Horses from stall 8 that finished second
3/6 – Raced at York last time out
2/6 – Trained by John Quinn
0/6 winning favourites
0/6 – Placed horses from stall 1
Trendsetter (John Quinn) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Carrigkerry - Won nicely for us last week on his stable and handicap debut. Has come out of that race well and has every chance of going in again under a penalty as he's still 3lb well-in. Yes, this looks a harder race but he's in-form and with a bit of improvement should be going close."
Jamie Snowden 24/05/16 1st 5/2

"Baadi - We are very much on 'weather-watch' with Baadi as he doesn't want the ground too quick. He is in great form though and desperate for a race so hopefully he will go close if allowed to take his chance."
Charlie Fellowes 23/05/16 1st 5/2

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