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Stat of the Day, 29th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Overall leader far side, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra and lost 2nd towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6081 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 15 days ago when comfortably landing the spoils over this very course and distance in a better race (Class 3) than this one, despite being poorly drawn in stall 8 of 10.

His trainer Andrew Balding has got his runners firing of late, as his Flat handicappers are 19 from 86 (22.1% SR) for 8.27pts (+9.61% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long-term (ie since 2010) his record here on the Roodee stands at 61 from 265 (23% SR) for 157.4pts (+59.4% ROI).

These are excellent track records and include of relevance/note today...

  • handicappers at 42/166 (25.3%) for 116.8pts (+70.4%)
  • over the last three seasons : 29/116 (25%) for 96.8pts (+83.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 30/107 (28%) for 92.9pts (+86.8%)
  • in September : 18/67 (26.9%) for 33.5pts (+50%)
  • LTO winners are 12/54 (22.2%) for 33.7pts (+62.5%)

And that LTO winners stat isn't restricted to Chester as since 2012, Mr Balding's LTO winners are 137/664 (20.6% SR) for 142.9pts (+21.5% ROI), including 72 winners from 337 (21.4%) for 126.5pts (+37.5%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs.

Our jockey today is Joshua Bryan, who didn't have a ride yesterday, but did win both his contests on Thursday over at Pontefract, firstly landing an SotD win on Francis Xavier, before winning for Andrew Balding later on the card.

Joshua has already won three races here at Chester this season from just 12 (25% SR) handicap contests for profits of 14.72pts (+122.7% ROI) and these include...

  • over 6 to 7.5 furlongs : 3/6 (50%) for 20.72pts (+345.4%)
  • for Andrew Balding : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.52pts (+21.7%)
  • and over 6 to 7.5f for Mr Balding : 2/4 (50%) for 4.52pts (+113%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Intransigent @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by ten different firms at 6.00pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

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12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*

Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)

Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2

 

  • Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years.  Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

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Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Haddaf (good)

1/3—Spoof (good)

 

2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.

Record of the five course winners in the second event:

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)

1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)

1/1—Jashma (good)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion.  As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/4—Manson (good to firm)

1/1—Chiefofchiefs (good)

1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)

 

3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation.  Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word!  The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”!  Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy!  My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!

Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later.  Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective.  There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race: 

1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt.  Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH.  I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th May

CHESTER – MAY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*

Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday.  Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

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Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.

 

2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME.  Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.

 

2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE.  Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period.  Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride.  I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late.  The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)

4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Baraweez (good)

1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)

2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11.  Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint.  The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field.  How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen.  NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.

Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2.  The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.

Chester record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

1/1—Tor (good to soft)

1/4—Kajaki (heavy)

1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)

2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)

 

4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk.  Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat.  Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position.  DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th May

CHESTER – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1

Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2

Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix.  Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest.  From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

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7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective.  Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years.  I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners).  13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.  POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten).  Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings.  Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD.  WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far.  KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing.  Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

3-2-1 (9 ran-good)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

 

4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 10th May

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2017: £42.70 (7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed)

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £102.48 - 47 favourites - 18 won - 16 placed - 13 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 81.2% units went through – 10/11* & 4/1

Race 2: 68.6% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* & 4/1

Race 3: 48.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2** - 9/1 – 8/1 (7/2**)

Race 4: 49.3% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 8/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 & 6/1 (4/6)

Race 6: 52.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 11/1 – 5/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (El Astronaute), 1 (Doctor Sardonicus) & 6 (Hyperfocus)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Rostropovich), 5 (My Lord And Master) & 1 (Kenya)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Tadleel), 8 (Dragon’s Tail) & 1 (Another Batt)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Idaho) & 6 (Muntahaa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Arcadian Rocks) & 6 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Christopher Robin), 3 (Ghostwatch) & 1 (Austrian School)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We started the Chester meeting off with a successful permutation yesterday – let’s hope for more of the same today!

 

1.50:  EL ASTRONAUTE attempts to follow up last year’s success in the race and with trainer John Quinn having scored with four of his last eight runners, Jason Hart’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  DOCTOR SARDONICUS should not be too far away at the jamstick, particularly if Tom Dascombe’s raider is given anything like an easy lead up front, whilst HYPERFOCUS looks a tad too big at 40/1 in a place this morning, despite his negative stall position.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of seven course winners in the opening race:

2/5—El Astronaute (good & good to soft)

2/4—Sir Maximilian (2 x good)

1/6—Reflektor (good to soft)

2/4—Boundsy (2 x good)

2/5—Confessional (good to soft & soft)

3/13—Powerallied (2 x good & soft)

1/4—Bossipop (good to soft)

Draw factor (Five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

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1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Dee Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has won this Group 3 event six times via the last eleven renewals in which the team has been represented and with strong candidates such as ROSTROPOVICH and KENYA this time around, Aidan looks sure to go close to extending his recent tally.  That said, MY LORD AND MASTER cannot be left out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have obliged during the study period, whilst 12 recent market leaders have reached the frame.  13 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

3.00: Ten of the last sixteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with TADLEEL and DRAGON’S TAIL (winner on the corresponding card last year) representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  TADLEEL hails from the Ed Dunlop stable which has won with three of its five three-year-old handicappers at Chester during the last five years.  Although Ed’s last seven runners have been beaten, four of them reached the frame (exact science) at 16/1, 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1, whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is an each way player today, despite an unfortunate draw.  Jim is one of the two jockeys which have ridden the Dark Angel colt to victory thus far.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, ANOTHER BATT could prove to be the joker in the pack and it’s worth noting that money was coming in for Silvestre’s mount as dawn broke over Bristol this morning.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include seven winners.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Dragon’s Tail (good)

 

3.35 ‘Ormonde Stakes’: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals (not represented on one occasion), though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence.  No trainer has won this race more often than Sir Michael Stoute who has saddled the winner six times, the first of which was with Saddlers' Hall back in 1992. That said, Michael is also on the missing list which leaves us eyeing up the prospect of another Aidan O’Brien winner in IDAHO who looks overpriced at the 11/8 quote in the trade press overnight. Indeed, favourite backers might be doing well to obtain 5/6 nearer flag fall, with MUNTAHAA seemingly the only horse standing in his way this afternoon.  The form of Idaho at the top level last year at his best would surely see the five-year-old home here with something to spare.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have rewarded investors during the last twenty years.  17 of the last 19 winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.  ‘Only’ seven of the twelve market leaders in as many years have claimed Placepot positions though to be entirely fair, many of the favourites lost out when contesting 'win only' events.

Chester record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Duretto (heavy)

1/1—Muntahaa (good)

 

4.05: Mick Channon has saddled eight of his 21 juvenile runners this season to winning effect and with ARCADIAN ROCKS having landed a trap one position, Mick’s Society Rock colt could improve the ratio still further.  YNYS MON is the obvious threat from what we have witnessed to date, especially as any jungle drums beating for newcomers have not reached my ears at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 22 favourites during the last 19 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-1 (7 ran-good)

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: Eleven different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though with the likes of CHRISTOPHER ROBIN, GHOSTWATCH and AUSTRIAN SCHOOL looking to have the race between them, the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last eleven years, whilst nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

Record of the five course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Al Destoor (soft)

1/5—Dark Devil (heavy)

1/1—Never Surrender (good)

1/8—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

2/6—Berrahri (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 9th May

CHESTER – MAY 9 

 

Seven year Placepot details on day one of the Chester May meeting:

2017: £25.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

2016: £31.30 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £16.30 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £1,492.00 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

2012: £110.00 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £69.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £259.09 - 50 favourites - 14 winners - 14 placed - 22unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.5% units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 11/2 (2/1)

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 65.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 4/1 – 10/1

Race 4: 29.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 9/1 – 25/1 – 5/1 (4/1) – This race was the Chester Cup which is being contested on Friday this year

Race 5: 62.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – Evens* - 12/1

Race 6: 91.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 9/2 – 11/4

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Linou), 8 (Sir Prancealot) & 5 (Kinks)

Leg 2 (2.25): 7 (Magic Wand) & 1 (Award Winning)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Spoof), 2 (Looks A Million) & 8 (Showmethedough)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (Hunting Horn) & 5 (Ispolini)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Argentello) & 2 (Baritone)

Leg 6 (4.35): 7 (Last Page), 5 (Requinto Dawn), 4 (Mr Top Hat) & 6 (Ginbar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 ('Lily Agnes'): Potentially, this is the second largest field for the ‘Lily Agnes’ during the last twenty years whereby the draw (heavily favouring low numbers) could well play an important role.  That said (explaining why bookmakers make vast profits year on year) the 2013 result of horses drawn 8-9-10 filling the frame in a twelve runner field defied belief at the time.  The following year, the winner was boxed 10/10 so don’t get too carried away with what media ‘experts’ will be telling you today!  SIR PRANCEALOT is drawn out in stall eight but there has been money for the David Evans trained raider, whilst it’s worth noting that no handler has bettered his score of saddling two winners in the race during the last decade.  That all said, her stable companion LIHOU looks the more obvious winner on paper and there was plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  If David and his team is to be denied this time around, KINKS could prove to be the joker in the pack, despite being housed out in the card park.  I see no value in No Lippy who is a top price of just 2/1 as dawn breaks.  Trap four is a superior position to break from, though only if you have enough pace to bag the rail, especially with Mark Johnston only having scored with one of his last eighteen runners.  No Lippy won well at Doncaster at the first time of asking but at 13/8 in places, those layers are suggesting that Mark’s February foal has a 38% chance of winning.  That scenario looks far too tight for my liking.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the last nineteen years.  Seventeen of the last nineteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

Draw factor' (five furlongs – most recent results at the top):

3-4-8 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

10-9-3 (10 ran-good)

8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)

2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (7 ran--good)

5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (6 ran--good)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)

1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

 

2.25 ('Cheshire Oaks'): Aidan O’Brien has won this event five times during the last decade, though the trainer adds confusion into the scenario on this occasion having declared three runners. Not all of Aidan’s winners have looked at ease around the twists and turns of the Roodee but that said, most of them have done what was asked of them and it will come as no surprise if the trainer lands his third victory in the last four years.  MAGIC WAND and TOGETHER FOREVER are expected to represent the Irish maestro to best effect here, though John Godsen stopped the bandwagon in is tracks last year with Enabled, whereby the chance of AWARD WINNING is respected.  I’m not suggesting for a moment that John’s Dubawi filly will live up to her stable companion by any means but that said, there was a lot to like about her successful raid at Wetherby at the second time of asking recently.  Shailene could outrun her 14/1 quote if you’re looking for a big priced individual to give you a decent run from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: 17 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (ten winners) during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-2 (7 ran-good)

6-3-4 (8 ran-good)

2-7-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good)

7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)

8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (7 ran--good)

2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)

4-1-2 (9 ran--good)

4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

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4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (5 ran-good)

7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

 

3.00: Although this is a new race for reasons stated in the ‘favourite factor’ below, the draw stats are worth perusing. Only on four occasions during the last 20 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a Placepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner.  The haul of just four gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the Placepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. Whether the fact that the ages of the horses will make a great deal of difference relating to the draw or not, my trio against the field consists of SPOOF (trap three), LOOKS A MILLION (1) and SHOWMETHEDOUGH (4)

Favourite factor: This is classed as a new race because having been open to horses of all ages in the past, the contest is now confined to three-year-olds.

I have left the following draw factor in however, just to give you a feel of the handicap scenario over the minimum trip.

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

1-2-6 (9 ran-good)

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of the two course winners in the third event:

1/1—Billy Dillon (good to soft)

1/1—Porchy Party (heavy)

 

3.35 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last eleven renewals and the trainer obviously intends to snare the swag here being responsible for three of the ten declarations.  I invariably question the thoughts of the trainer in such circumstances because I have to believe that Aidan is not convinced that he has a definite winner within the quartet, having paid the expenses for the others to travel over from Ireland.  That said, Aidan comes to the gig on a six-timer whereby HUNTING HORN demands to be included in the Placepot mix from my viewpoint.  Plenty of interesting horses take the Irish raiders on however, with ISPOLINI slightly preferred to Young Rascal as the main hope to prize the swag away from Aidan on behalf of the home team.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 16 years, statistics which include seven (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

 

4.05: Well fancied runners have (aside from the 2015 result) performed well in this event and we appear to have a two horse race to consider, with ARGENTELLO and BARITONE having been declared.  Hailing from the powerful respective stables of John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute, I cannot believe that both horses will finish out of the frame.  If you fancy that an upset could be on the cards, Soldier To Follow could be worth an each way interest.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won ten of the last thirteen contests, whilst 17 of the last 21 jollies have secured Placepot positions.  Those stats include the 1/6 (Aidan O'Brien trained) favourite in 2015, though the market leader could only finished second behind an 8/1 winner!

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

3-4-5 (9 ran-good)

4-2 (5 ran-good)

3-8 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-1-4 (11 ran-good)

7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-8 (7 ran--good)

10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-4-5 (9 ran--good)

4-10-1 (11 ran-good)

7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

6 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

4.35: 14 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of nine stones or less and LAST PAGE could create a first and last Placepot double for David Evans.  REQUINTO DAWN was the beaten favourite in the ‘Lily Agnes’ twelve months ago and Richard Fahey’s representative comes here with and place claims in this grade/company.  MR TOP HAT and GINBAR make up my short list against the field.  Rain is scheduled to arrive at around three o’clock according to the radar I have just spied and softening ground could give GINBAR a realistic chance of going well at around the 20/1 mark, despite his stall 12 positon.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

1-2-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6-7 (11 ran-good)

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Finbar (heavy)

 

Record of the six course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race scheduled for 5.05:

1/2—Roaring Forties (good)

1/2—Kenstone (good)

1/13—Intransigent (good to soft)

1/3—Right Touch (soft)

1/1—Roll On Rory (soft)

1/16—Alejandro (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th September

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £440.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Nelson) & 6 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Clemmie) & 12 (Threading)

Leg 3 (2.55): 11 (Unfortunately), 7 (Hey Jonesy) & 12 (U S Navy Flag)

Leg 4 (3.35): 16 (Greenside), 6 (Linguistic), 13 (Chelsea Lad), 29 (Brorocco) & 8 (Big Country)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bye Bye Baby) & 1 (Altyn Orda)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Clubbable), 2 (Exhort) & 3 (Time Change)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: The fact that Aidan O’Brien’s Group winner NELSON meets his rivals here on level terms is an obvious pointer towards his chance, albeit ROARING LION could yet be anything.  Add MILDENBERGER into the mix and we have a race to savour for starters.  Although five years have passed without Aidan O’Brien having lifted the prize, five previous renewals have been secured by the Ballydoyle maestro down the years.

Favourite factor:  Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.

 

2.20: Aidan O’Brien grabs centre stage again here, though it is a shame that Heartache does not line up against CLEMMIE in what had potentially looked a fascinating clash in the ‘Cheveley Park’.  Aidan secured a one-two in the race last year with a 25/1 chance beating an 11/2 stable companion, with the 4/6 favourite (Lady Aurelia) missing out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest.  CLEMMIE could be as short as 11/8 with Clive Cox having ‘pulled the plug’, though Mark Johnston’s unbeaten Exceed And Excel filly THREADING looks sure to down down with all guns blazing, should that scenario unfold.  Connections of THREADING would be quite happy if a rogue shower evolves though that potential ‘edge’ looks unlikely.  That said either way, CLEMMIE (brother of Churchill) looks to be a similarly progressive type and should take the beating. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 12 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.55: Three of the last six winners have scored at 25/1—25/1—22/1, notwithstanding the defeat of the 1/2 favourite (Ivawood) three years ago. Bookmakers will be rubbing their grubby hands together in anticipation of what looks to be a competitive (if not sparkling) renewal of the ‘Middle Park’.  Karl Burke has placed UNFORTUNATELY to brilliant effect in France on his last two assignments, Karl’s Society Rock representative having picked up Group 1 and Group 2 prizes across the channel of late.  With Karl having saddled plenty of winner in the south of the country this time as well, the trainer has been enjoying his travels this year and today could be another red letter day for the yard.  That said, I offer each way chances to HEY JONESY and U S NAVY FLAG, with both horses added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the 'Middle Park' during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites during the period secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.35: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge.  That said, if a horse is to win from a low number this time around, LINGUISTIC (drawn 5/35) would be the call, given that John Gosden looks to have targeted this race for some time relating to his (good to soft) course winner.  Two horses possessing 2/2 ratios here on the Rowley Mile catch the eye, namely GREENSIDE (28) and CHELSEA LAD (10), with preference going to the first named Henry Candy raider on account of the draw. Both horses have won with moisture in the ground at the track however, whereby Chelsea Lad is not just included to make up the numbers.  BIG COUNTRY (17) and BROROCCO (33) should have the ground drying out in their favour (no rain for Newmarket today according to the radar at one o’clock this morning) from the side of the course that should have the edge.  Very Talented (3rd in the race last year - has not raced since) is offered up the the reserve nomination. Best of luck!

Favourite factor:  Four favourites have won the ‘Cambridgeshire’ in the last 19 years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Eight of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor--nine furlongs:

2016: 28-35-8-13 (31 ran-good to firm)

2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)

2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)

2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)

2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)

2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)

2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)

2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)

2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)

2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)

2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)

2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)

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2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)

2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the Cambridgeshire – none of the other five (juvenile) events have course winners involved on the Placepot card:

1/12—Master The World (good)

1/4—GM Hopkins (good)

1/3—Linguistic (good to soft)

2/2—Chelsea Lad (good to firm & good to soft)

2/2—Greenside (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Captain Cat (good to firm)

1/3—Secret Art (good to soft)

1/1—Red Tea (good)

 

4.10: Yet another (7/4) favourite got chinned on last year’s card but this renewal should be safely filed under the (secure Placepot call) file, with BYE BYE BABY and ALTYN ORDA having been declared.  Personally, I am not too worried about the order in which the two market leaders finish, just as long as they secure a Placepot position or two between them.  Safe for you to presume that I will not be getting involved from a win perspective. Lightening Quick let the Bye Bye Baby form down yesterday, though Aidan’s raider has already contested a Group race which augurs well for her chance in this grade/company I guess.

Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events thus far.

 

4.45: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 9-1 though that said, the other trio of gold medallists heaved 9-7 to winning effect.  Richard Fahey is the only trainer to have a saddled two winners of this race during the last decade (within seven years in fact), whereby the chance for his consistent juvenile CLUBBABLE is there for all to see, from a Placepot perspective at least off 8-9.  Richard complicates matters having also declared EXHORT, whilst TIME CHANGE is offered as a win and place option for you to consider.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished out of the frame since the last favourite scored, though last year’s 5/2 market leader at least secured a Placepot position.

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – Their relevant number of winners (where applicable) on the corresponding day at Newmarket during the last five years are offered in brackets: 

6 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1)

5—Andrew Balding (1)

5—Richard Fahey (2)

5—William Haggas (1)

4—John Gosden (3)

3—Michael Appleby

3—Dean Ivory

3—Mark Johnston (4)

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Roger Varian (2)

2—Karl Burke

2—Ed Dunlop

2—David Elsworth

2—Jim Goldie

2—Charlie Hills (1)

2—Michael Meade

2—David Menuisier

2—David O’Meara (1)

2—John Ryan

2—David Simcock

2—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3)

2—Stuart Williams

+ 42 trainers with one entry on the card

108 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £95.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £41.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £50.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Ripon: £987.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers 16th September 2017

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £235.80 (8 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Vibrant Chords), 11 (A Momentofmadness), 12 (Compas Scoobie) & 14 (Captain Colby)

Leg 2 (2.25): 3 (Home Of The Brave), 2 (Aclaim) & 6 (Nathra)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 1 (Dream Today)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Raheen House), 1 (Capri) & 3 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Westerland) & 4 (Regimented)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Big Baz), 2 (Muntazah) & 7 (Battered)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last 10 renewals of the 'Portland', whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last five contests.  The last 12 winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, whilst middle to high numbers have dominated in recent years as you can see for yourself below.  Indeed, only four horses drawn in the lowest three stalls have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 11 years when 44 opportunities have been up for grabs. Putting the stats and facts together creates a short list of VIBRANT CHORDS (drawn 8/22), A MOMENTOFMADNESS (20) and COMPAS SCOOBY (9).  CAPTAIN COLBY (16) won the race last year with HARRY HURRICANE (7) back in third place (beaten two lengths), the pair both having carried nine stones. The winner is now four pounds better off and seemingly has the best of the draw, whereby I find it a little difficult to comprehend how George Baker’s latter named raider is favoured over the defending champion this morning.  My weight stats support ‘Harry’ but otherwise I would have to plump for the captain to confirm the placings, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 19 years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.  Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £850.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period.  10 of the last 23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  12 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):

12-1-9-16 (20 ran-good)

10-15-1-2 (10 ran-good)

15-9-21-11 (20 ran-good)

12-11-14-17 (21 ran-good to soft)

21-18-12-16 (20 ran-good)

15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)

7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)

16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)

21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)

13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)

15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)

20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)

9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)

16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)

6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the opening race: 

1/7—Pipers Note (good to firm

1/2—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/2—Captain Colby (good)

1/1—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

1/6—Move In Time (good)

 

2.25: HOME OF THE BRAVE has been given an easy season to date and the timing of his assignments this term have proved spot on.  Similarly, Hugo Palmer has enjoyed a fine year and it’s difficult to envisage Hugo’s five-year-old finishing out of the frame.  ACLAIM and NATHRA are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with Spirit Of Valour disappointing yours truly the last day. Sir Dancealot won’t be far away at an each way price I’ll wager, though Davuid Elsworth’s raider has been kept on the go of late, certainly by comparison to HOME OF THE BRAVE who looks to been targeted for this event for some time.

 

Favourite factor: Ten of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

8-4-3 (8 ran-good)

7-4-9 (15 ran-good)

1-6 (7 ran-good)

10-9-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

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3-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

8-11-6 (12 ran-good)

6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (9 ran-soft)

1-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3-2 (9 ran-good)

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-1-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good)

Doncaster record of runners in the third race:

2/3--Breton Rock (good & good to soft)

 

3.00:  It is disappointing in the extreme that just seven trainers have taken up the challenge of saddling the Group 2 'Champagne' winner this season (only 27 runners have contested the race during the last five years). Yes, MYTHICAL MAGIC is a worthy favourite but Charlie Appleby’s Ifraaj colt is not exactly bombproof from what we have witnessed thus far, so why the lack of interest in this Group 2 event?  DREAM TODAY is preferred to Red Mist of the more likely winners in the line up. Grand Koonta is expected to outrun his (28/1) price but probably not to Placepot effect.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst 13 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

1-5 (6 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

5 (4 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (5 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-6 (6 ran-good)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

7-8 (7 ran-soft)

9-10-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

8/6 (dead heat)--(7 ran-good to soft)

3-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

2-4 (6 ran-good)

8-2-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-5-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

4-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

8-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

2/4--Humidor (good & good to firm)

1/2--Red Pike (good)

1/4--Hoofalong (good to firm)

1/1--Mukaynis (good to firm)

 

3.35: Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger four times during the last 16 years, with CAPRI heading a two pronged attack on the last Classic of the season.  The home contingent offer a formidable threat on this occasion however, with CRYSTAL OCEAN, STRADIVARIUS and my each way selection RAHEEN HOUSE among the declarations.  Brian Meehan has pulled several rabbits out of hats down the years and it’s always worth a length or two to have an ‘autumn horse’ at your disposal and RAHEEN HOUSE certainly ran well at the back end last year.  Adam Kirby’s mount has taken his time to return to the area reserved for winners this term but got the job done nicely at Newmarket the last day and at 14/1, Brian’s Sea The Stars colt is the win and place (value for money) call.  It goes without saying that Sea The Stars was also a ‘back end’ thoroughbred have gained his last success in the 2009 running of the ‘Arc’.  Sea The Stars was one of the true superstars of the last decade, winning his last eight races having finished fourth on debut.  CRSTYAL OCEAN is added to the Placepot mix (alongside (CAPRI) as rain is due to hit the Doncaster area at around the start of the meeting, which should suit Sir Michael Stoute’s raider over Stradivarius.

Favourite factor:  Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 20 years.  18 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.  Favourite backers will hope for a better run for their collective monies compared to last year when 4/6 chance Idaho stumbled before unseating his rider.

 

4.20: John Gosden has won with two of the three horses he has saddled in this Nursery event in recent years and in WESTERLAND, John looks to have found the right opportunity for his Frankel colt to return to winning ways.  REGIMENTED has proved popular overnight which is hardly surprising given his record thus far.  Rhosneigr and Makseb are closely matched but I will opt for the first named pair to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 10 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Three and four-year-olds have both won four renewals of the toteplacepot finale during the last 12 years, with just three contests escaping their grip on the contest.  Last year’s 7/1 winner (Can’t Change It) was among my short listed trio and the 10/1 offer by Bet365 this morning about BIG BAZ suggests that I am taking another decent priced horse to prevail in the Placepot finale.  MUNTAZAH is another each way option to consider, whilst BATTERED completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders, the pick of which is likely to be Sinfonietta.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via 11 renewals during the last 12 years.  Seven of the 13 favourites have finished in the frame (exact science - as in all cases on this page) during the study period.

Doncaster record of runners in the Placepot finale

2/4—Bronze Angel (2 x good)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday – followed by their number of corresponding winners on the day on Town Moor during the last six years:

8 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner)

4—John Gosden (2)

3—David O’Meara (2)

3—Roger Varian (2)

2—Andrew Balding

2—Tim Easterby

2—Richard Fahey

2—Charlie Hills (2)

2—Dean Ivory

2—Mark Johnston (1)

2—William Muir

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

71 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £75.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Chester: £472.10 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £185.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Musselburgh: £121.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2017

Friday's Result :

1.20 Doncaster : Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : With leader, effort 2f out, ridden and one pace over 1f out, no impression with winner when lost 2nd inside final furlong...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance here and arrives at the Roodee in great form, having finished 1121 in his last four outings, including a win over course and distance last time out.

The jockey from that day, Connor Murtagh, now rides him for a second time and was able to take 3lbs off a mark of 77 for that win seven weeks ago. Today he takes 7lbs off 90 and with 4lb allowance (W4A), they should still be competitive.

Dan Troop is currently 3 from 6 on the Flat, including...

  • 3/5 at 7/7.5 furlongs , 3/4 this year, 3/4 after a rest of three weeks or longer
  • 3/3 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2, 2/3 in handicaps, 2/3 going left handed
  • 1/1 at Class 3, 1/1 here at Chester, 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 on Soft ground and 1/1 under Connor Murtagh.

Also...trainer Richard Fahey's handicappers at 7/1 and shorter with CD next to their name who also won LTO (anywhere) are 19/77 (24.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+13.5% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, of which...

  • those running over the same course and distance as LTO : 16/65 (24.6%) for 13.12pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 13/52 (25%) for 16.6pts (+31.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+30.4%)

AND...males racing at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs over the same course and distance as LTO = 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 7pts (+39% ROI)

Finally, Connor Murtagh is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 16.85pts (+187.2% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter on the back of a Richard Fahey handicapper here at Chester.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 , Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 7.25pm on Friday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,078.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Tigre Du Terre) & 2 (Aqabah)

Leg 2 (1.50): 12 (Tomyris), 5 (Tallayeb) & 1 (Unforgetable Filly)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Heartache) & 1 (Havana Grey)

Leg 4 (3.00): 7 (Time To Study) & 3 (Penglai Pavilion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Montaly), 8 (She Is No Lady), 4 (High Jinx) & 3 (Fun Mac)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Ghaiyyath), 10 (Tiffin Top) & 5 (Military Law)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Of the three horses that figured strongly in the market when the final runners were declared, TIGRE DU TERRE is holding up best at the time of writing.  Drying ground will suit Richard Hannon’s raider and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Le Havre colt, the Hannon/Moore bandwagon should prevail again.  Of the other pair, AQABAH is preferred to Zaaki.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 12 renewals contested during the last 13 years were also secured by market leaders.

 

1.50: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 20 renewals (including 14 of the last 16) and with 10 of the 13 declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (77% of the field), the result should revert back to type after last year’s trend buster.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of TOMYRIS (drawn 12/13), TALLAYEB (8) and UNFORGETTABLE FILLY (7), a trio which should gain a couple of Placepot positions between them.  The draw numbers went base over apex on the only ‘recent’ occasion the race was contested under good to soft decisions but that said, just eight runners took part on the relevant day.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last 20 years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-7 (7 ran-good)

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1--Pirouette (good)

 

2.25: HEARTACHE is a filly of outstanding ability and the Queen Mary winner can be considered unlucky not to have kept her unbeaten record intact on the continent the last day.  Bumped leaving the stalls, Clive Cox’s Kyllachy filly never quite recovered from the early setback, though Clive’s February foal is expected to bounce back successfully today.  That said, the declaration of HAVANA GREY sets up a fascinating clash as Karl Burke’s colt ‘only’ has to give the filly three pounds.  Speculative investors might offer YOGI’S GIRL a chance of beating the other six horses home, albeit at a respectable distance behind the front pair.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 75 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 58 points.

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Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-3-11 (11 ran-good)

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.00: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst ten three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider (Wall Of Fire) won last year and Mark Johnston (TIME TO STUDY) is seemingly the only trainer who reads this column!  Please take that last comment with the proverbial ‘pinch of salt’ but you hopefully catch my drift.  Last Saturday’s ‘endurance test’ at Haydock on poor ground should have set up TIME TO STUDY enough to snare this prize, with the general offer of 7/2 making plenty of appeal this morning.  PENGLAI PAVILION is feared most.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of the Doncaster Cup (lone raider Quest for more finished second twelve months ago) and this year’s two representatives MONTALY and FUN MAC are the first pair to be added into my Placepot permutation this time around.  The pair are listed in order of preference with Andrerw Balding’s first named raider holding definite chance from a win perspective.  As much as I love this St Leger meeting however, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket aside from a Placepot wager as far as this event is concerned.  Other each way types such as SHE IS NO LADY and HIGH JINX add plenty of interest.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, whilst 11 of the other 14 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/3--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/4--High Jinx (good to soft)

1/1—Pallastor (good)

2/2—Skeikhzayedroad (2 x good)

1/1—Thomas Hobson (soft)

 

4.05:  John Gosden has been the trainer to follow on the third day of the meeting in recent years and having declared two runners in the race, the chances of TIFFIN TOP and MILITARY LAE are respected.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH comes into his first race with a tall reputation, confirmed by his entries in the ‘Royal Lodge’ and the Racing Post Trophy later this season.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last ten favourites have won during which time, six winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their number of winners on Town Moor on the corresponding day in recent years:

3 runners—Charlie Appleby

3—Tom Dascombe

3—Tim Easterby

3—John Gosden (5)

3—Richard Hannon (2)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Karl Burke

2—Mick Channon

2—Clive Cox

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Brian Ellison

2—David Evans

2—Hughie Morrison

2—Aidan O’Brien

2—Hugo Palmer (1)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (1)

2—John Ryan

2—Roger Varian (3)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £21.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Salisbury: £31.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Sandown: £49.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday September 3rd

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £172.10 (4 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unpalced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Kasbah), 1 (Monsieur Joe) & 4 (Majestic Hero)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Maser) & 5 (Persur)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Intimation), 11 (On Her Toes) & 12 (Tisbutadream)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Shabbah) & 10 (Across Dubai)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Cheeky Rascal), 1 (Lethal Lunch) & 4 (Barford)

Leg 6 (4.45): 11 (Najashee), 9 (High Draw) & 10 (Al Nafoorah)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst the relevant nine events have failed to register a single winning favourite.  The weight stats eliminate the bottom four horses (of ten in total) from my enquiries. Shamson was returned as the well beaten favourite in this event twelve months ago and it might be worth taking the six-year-old on with KASBAH, MONSIEUR JOE and MAJESTIC HERO this time around.

Favourite factor: Only two of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Shamson (good to firm)

1/1—Majestic Hero (soft)

2/2—Bahamian Sunrise (good & soft)

 

2.25: I gave 33/1 winner VINATAGER an each way squeak before registering his recent soft ground success though of course, the ground will be much quicker this time around.  It remains to be seen how David Menuisier’s Mastercraftsman colt handles the conditions, though there was plenty to like about the manner of his success on the July course at Newmarket.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s MASER found some trouble in running but was still good enough to snare the bronze medal in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, having previously won on debut at Goodwood on good ground.  PURSER also has to enter the equation following a sound effort when scoring at Newbury on his first day at school.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won the Solario Stakes during the last decade, whilst nine gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Connect (good to soft)

 

3.00: Nine of the last 11 gold medallists in this Atalanta Stakes (for fillies and mares) have hailed from the three-year-old ranks, with vintage representatives at 8/5 this time around before the form book is consulted.  Sir Michael Stoute has his team in fine form and having won three of the last eight renewals of this Group 3 event, Michael has a definite chance of improving his recent tally having offered INTIMATION the green light.  That said, connections of the three-year-old course winners ON HER TOES and TISBUTADREAM will not mind the fast ground for their respective representatives.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed, as have five of the last eight, albeit those stats include a 13/8 market leader who shared the spoils via a dead heat back in 2013.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—On Her Toes (good to firm)

1/1—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

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3.35: The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 whereby the top five horses in the handicap might not represent value for money in the contest, if you follow the recent weight trend.   SHABBAH is on offer at 11/1 at the time of writing and I have already tipped my win and place toe into the murky waters, believing that Ryan Moore’s mount can gain a Placepot position at the very least.  Others to catch my eye include ACROSS DUBAI and hat trick seeker THUNDERING BLUE.

Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since a winning favourite had been recorded before last year’s 9/4 market leader repaired some of the damage on behalf of favourite backers.  Only two of the last six favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/4—Master Carpenter (good to firm)

1/1—Euginio (good to firm)

1/2—Silver Ghost (good to soft)

1/1—Shabbah (good)

1/2—Mutaakez (good)

 

4.10: The weight stats reveal that the bottom two horses in the handicap might struggle to score as the last seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 to victory.  That leaves us with six horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CHEEKY RASCAL, LETHAL LUNCH and BARFORD.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference, with Livingstone’s Quest only overlooked because of the heavy ground which was in evidence when he scored at Ffos Las last time out.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have troubled the judge from a Placepot perspective since back to back favourites obliged in 2011/12.  Indeed, those two successful market leaders are the only favourites to have won during the last decade.

 

4.45: Owen Burrows can do very little wrong just now and the trainer has seemingly found a fine opportunity for his Invincible Spirit colt NAJASHEE to successfully follow up his recent fast ground Haydock.  Karl Burke had made a habit of raiding this venue successfully this term, whereby the chance of HIGH DRAW is respected, whilst AL NAFOORAH completes my trio against the other nine contenders in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, with three clear market leaders having scored alongside a 9/2 joint favourite during the period.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Grand Inquisitor (good to firm)

2/18—Directorship (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed (where relevant) by their winners on the corresponding (August 20th) card year:

5—Richard Hannon

4—John Gosden (6/4* last year)

3—David Elsworth

3—Eve Johnson Houghton

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Michael Attwater

2—Andrew Balding (9/4*)

2—Clive Cox

2—Ed Dunlop

2—Richard Fahey

2—William Haggas

2—Philip Hide

2—Brian Meehan

2—David Menuisier

2—Rod Millman

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

77 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £8.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: This is a new meeting

Newton Abbot: £56.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th August

YORK – EBOR HANDICAP DAY - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £423.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 5 (Mustashry) & 7 (Make Time)

Leg 2 (2.25): 12 (Bush House), 6 (Master Singer) & 8 (The Grand Visir)

Leg 3 (3.00): 11 (Stormbringer), 8 (Nobleman’s Quest) & 5 (Headway)

Leg 4 (3.35): 20 (Magic Circle), 17 (Wild Hacked) & 11 (Star Storm)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Falabelle), 13 (Formidable Kitt) & 8 (To Wafij)

Leg 6 (4.40): 6 (Weekend Offender), 16 (Brorocco) & 13 (Storm King)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and yet MUSTASHRY is the only vintage representative in the line up on this occasion.  If this were an NH event with similar trends in place on a big race day, Paul Nicholls would be all over it like a disease, not wanting just to trainer the winner, but also the second and the third!  That is one of the main differences between the codes, in that NH trainers follow the trends more, no matter what ‘media types’ would have you believe.  Fortunately Sir Michael Stoute is wise to the ‘edge’ this time around and I expect Michael’s recent Chelmsford winner to transfer his A/W form to turf successfully.  MAKE TIME is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest ahead of MONDIALISTE.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes:

1/3—Master The World (good)

1/4—Mondaliste (good)

 

2.25: 13 of the last 14 winners of the 'Melrose' carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my speculative quartet against the field consists of MASTER SINGER, HERE AND NOW, BUSH HOUSE and THE GRAND VISIR.  All four horses are expected to outrun their current odds, with 16/1 about BUSH HOUSE arguably being the value for money call if you wanted yours truly to name one individual.  Hugo Palmer’s Canford Cliffs gelding is closely match with Bin Batutta on earlier form this season and yet Jo Gordon’s mount is twice the price of the Godlphin raider.  The other point to consider is that John Gosden’s only runner on the card is MASTER SINGER which makes for interesting reading to say the very least.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last 16 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, whilst the last eight winners have scored at prices ranging between 8/1 & 28/1.

 

3.00: Kevin Ryan has secured the two of the last five renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event (last year’s stable representative was pulled up), also having saddled Aamadeus Wold to score twelve years ago.  Kevin’s recent Redcar winner STORMBRINGER could be the ‘dark horse’ in the line up, though I trust Redcar form as much Arsenal’s defence these days.  Kevin becomes ‘attached’ to juvenile races when he gets his claws into the relevant contests and given the ammunition he has back at the ranch, his decision to offer the green light to his Dutch Art representative is good enough for me, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Others to consider include Mark Johnston’s typically tenacious juvenile CARDSHARP alongside potential improvers in HEADWAY and NOBLEMAN’S QUEST.

Favourite factor:  Only two favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, albeit eleven of the last twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eight of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-10-7 (10 ran-good)

9-5-4 (8 ran-good)

5-6-9 (9 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

6-7-23 (8 ran-good)

1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-2-4 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

9-7-6 (13 ran-good)

2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)

9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1 (11 ran-good)

9-7-2 (9 ran-good)

2-5-3 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

 

3.35: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line-up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded in 2001 and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.  The 2015 seven-year-old winner was the first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.  12 of the last 15 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests.  Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the contest consists of MAGIC CIRCLE, WILD HACKED, NAKEETA and STAR STORM.  I immediately had the thought that MAGIC CIRCLE could be ‘thrown in’ for his next race when Ralph Beckett’s five year-old won the other day, without realising at the time that he was still entered in this event.  Getting in off the bottom mark in the race suggests to yours truly that the current 9/1 quote might just be the subject of a right old gamble leading up to flag fall.  We shall see, given that stall five does present us with a negative factor.  The reserve nomination is offered to LORD YEATS who just misses out via his mark in the handicap having done us a fine favour earlier in the season.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via the last 18 renewals with 10 market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/1—Lord Yeats (soft)

1/2—Scarlet Dragon (good)

4/11—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Magic Circle (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late, whilst the likes of FALABELLE, FORMIDABLE KITT and TO WAFIJ boast claims from my viewpoint in another difficult race to assess on the card.  The latter named Roger Varian raider has not done a great deal wrong thus far whereby it could be argued that Roger’s Kodiac colt could be given another chance at a half decent price.  The first named pair both hail from stables which have saddled winners this week (I’m writing this column before racing took place on Friday), whereby the trio should give us a decent run for our collective Placepot monies, if we are fortunate enough to be in the mix this late in the day.

Favourite factor:  Three favourites have won via the last 18 renewals, whilst 12 of the other 16 market leaders failed to reach the frame.  Only one favourite has obliged via 12 renewals during the last 13 years, though 10 of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

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Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-8-1 (8 ran-good)

8-4-7 (9 ran-good)

1-6-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (6 ran-soft)

3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

10-1-4 (10 ran-good)

9-13-6 (13 ran-good)

2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2-7 (10 ran-good)

6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

4-6-7 (10 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-soft)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-9 (10 ran-good)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

7-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good)

Course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, whilst securing 24 of the last 47 available toteplacepot positions.  Vintage representatives are 6/4 to improve the ratio via eight relevant declarations this time around.  11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of WEEKEND OFFFENDER, BROROCCO and STORM KING emerges.  The latter named David Griffiths raider does not fit the vintage trend but David knows how to place his horses well enough to include his hat trick seeker in the equation. It might be as well to consider David’s impressive 3/7 stats here at York at the time of writing, with the trainer boasting 19 points of level profit stakes for good measure.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to UAE PRINCE.

Favourite factor:  Ten of the last nineteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes five winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):

2-12-13-6 (16 ran-good)

15-7-17 (15 ran-good)

9-16-5 (15 ran-good)

10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)

7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)

14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)

14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)

8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-4-2 (9 ran-good)

16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)

1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

5-4-11 (11 ran-good)

3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4--Snoano (good to soft)

1/5—Weekend Offender (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Saturday:

7 runners—Richard Fahey

7—Mark Johnston

7—David O’Meara

4—Kevin Ryan

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Andrew Balding

3—Declan Carroll

3—Tim Easterby

3—William Haggas

3—Iain Jardine

3—Hugo Palmer

3—Saeed Bin Suroor

3—Roger Varian

2—David Barron

2—Ralph Beckett

2—John Best

2—Clive Cox

2—Tom Dascombe

2—Michael Dods

2—Mick Easterby

2—David C Griffiths

2—Richard Hannon

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

113 declared runners 

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £253.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newmarket: £59.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £203.50 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £60.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £51.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced