Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2013

No dice for Yaakooum yesterday, and Chris takes a well earned weekend break, meaning you're lumbered with me for the next two days...

Plenty to go at today and, with the ground going on the soft side most places, and a new toy to play with, I'll be using that as the basis for today's Roodee nomination, in the...

2.55 Chester

When the ground changes towards the extremes, I'm especially interested in those with proven ability to handle that surface. With 4mm of rain overnight, Chester is now reporting good to soft, soft in places. Given the the Good Lord is still tinkling his watering can over the course, it will probably be soft later on.

Either way, Cameron Highland has an affinity with this type of turf. Indeed, on good to soft, his form reads 14 and on soft it's 11. His overall form on softer than good is 13141, and he's the best equipped horse in the field to deal with the sodden underhoof.

Those two soft ground wins were both in Listed class, the same as today, and both were at around this trip (a furlong less to be exact). If the cards fall right, he'll get a lead off Area Fifty One and then slingshot - or at least slingplod in this ground - by.

Trainer Roger Varian couldn't be in better form, with his most recent runners recording the following finishing positions: 122021111121134516.

As short as 9/4 with Betfred, you can still get 10/3 with BetVictor, though I suspect that won't last...

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

When you're down, you're down, and we got kicked yesterday as well. Another first leg blowout, this time the 20/1 outsider of four. That set up a whopping £4,906 dividend, won by just 7.45 units. Nice.

Chester this afternoon...

2.00 - Leg 1: A mile maiden for juveniles kicks us off, and it's a long way for such young horses. Bow Creek has the benefit of both ability and experience. Yenhaab is bred for this, and runs for strong connections. The betting suggests he'll be forward enough to run well on his debut.

A - 2 (Bow Creek), 9 (Yenhaab)

2.30 - Leg 2: Maiden fillies next, and a strong Newmarket presence, headed by lasses from the Gosden, Cecil and Cumani stables. Johnny G's Snow Powder may be the pick of them, having run a close third over this trip last time out at Newbury. Lower down the lists, top Chester pilot Franny Norton partners Evermore, and looks set to bounce out and control things from the front aboard a filly stepping up to a trip for which she's bred.

A - 10 (Snow Powder)
B - 6 (Evermore)

3.00 - Leg  3: The Confessor is a confirmed front runner drawn one in this seven furlong handicap. The other habitual pace pressers are mainly drawn much wider, and this chap could get his own way today, with both trainer and jockey in good form at present. Chosen Character is interesting, though might just still be a bit high in the weights, while Laffan looks set to bounce back and may be winning soon.

King Of Eden too is falling back to a winnable mark, but he'll need plenty to go right to win from a pocket, which is where he might well find himself (drawn low, hold up type). Verse Of Love on the other hand should get a lovely tow into the business end from The Confessor, and has stamina to make it count. He's also below his best winning mark again now.

A - 3 (The Confessor), 13 (Verse Of Love)
B - 1 (Chosen Character), 6 (Laffan), 9 (King Of Eden)

3.35 - Leg 4: This is wide open. Ningara ticks a lot of boxes, but may not have the scope of some of his rivals. Nonetheless, he's been there and done it, so is included. Topamichi is consistent, won over course and distance last time, and is seeking a hat-trick here: he may not be done with yet. And Yarroom has been running well in better races, and may not be long in getting his head in front.

A - 1 (Yarroom), 6 (Ningara), 9 (Topamichi)

4.05 - Leg 5: Non-runners in the last two legs have made them both seven runner affairs, and therefore we have just two places to fire at. Nevertheless, DBS Premier Yearling Stakes third, Nezar, is a long way clear on the evidence of that huge run, and ought to be in the first two. He's due to go up just over a stone in the ratings and is 15 pounds 'well in' today.

A - 4 (Nezar)

4.40 - Leg 6: A two mile handicap, and one in which the sole 3yo, Statutory, carries bottom weight despite being the highest rated horse in the field. Yes, it's the weight for age allowance again. Nobody, with the possible exception of Johnny G, exploits the WFA scale better than Mark Johnston, Statutory's trainer; and this chap ought to run a screamer with Chester Franny again booked to steer.

Of his elders, Kashgar ran too badly to be true last time and, if you overlook that, he comes here on a four-timer. He's a course and distance winner, and will be fine on the ground. His trainer, Bernard Llewellyn, normally does well at this time of year too. He's a big price at around 14/1.

Zenafire is bred to be a miler, and yet has been more impressive the further he's gone. He won by three lengths over a mile and three quarters, and deserves a crack at this extra quarter mile. Softsong is dropping enormously in grade, and is an under the radar placepot type that has been backed.

A - 8 (Statutory)
B - 2 (Softsong), 6 (Zenafire), 7 (Kashgar)

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Chester placepot picks

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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 13th July 2012

Well, though I say so myself, that was a pretty good shout yesterday! 🙂

Stature won at odds of 12/1, having been freely available at 18/1 earlier, and as high as 25.0 in the pre-race betting on Betfair. I took 18.5 on Betfair and had a bit more at 21.0. Shrewdie (not).

In any case, today I've found what I think is the most 'obvious' bet of the day, in the…

7.05 Chester

Five furlong sprint handicaps at Chester in the last ten years. Stall one has won twenty of 73 races (27% strike rate!) for a profit of 31.09 points.

Today's box one incumbent is Jwala, He's one from one on good to soft (today's going); two from two at today's trip (five furlongs); has won his last two races under today's jockey; is two from two in fields of nine or less (nine runners today); and he likes to lead, on a massively speed favouring track.

In short, whilst he may only be 9/4, Jwala has everything going for him. Now, this is a step up in class, but he's got the best Racing Post Rating here already, and looks progressive against some exposed rivals.

The obvious one doesn't always win, but I couldn't look anywhere else today for Stat of the Day, even at 9/4.

Click here for the latest odds for the 7.05 Chester.

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