Tag Archive for: Cheveley Park Stud

No rush to commit to autumn target for Estrange

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Connections of Estrange remain undecided as to whether to shoot for Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe glory or target Qipco Champions Day at Ascot next month.

With a pre-Arc trip to Paris for this weekend’s Prix Vermeille ruled out, trainer David O’Meara and owners Cheveley Park Stud now face a straight choice between aiming for Europe’s premier middle-distance contest on October 5, or taking the perceived easier option of the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes a fortnight later.

After seeing Estrange chase home Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk in the Yorkshire Oaks two weeks ago, Cheveley Park director Richard Thompson admitted the Arc was a “dream” target, but the team are understandably in no rush to make concrete plans.

Cheveley Park’s managing director, Chris Richardson, said: “Obviously we’ll keep both options open and see what happens – we wouldn’t be ruling out either option at this point.

“I think Mrs Thompson is probably favouring Ascot, I believe, and her son Richard is favouring Longchamp perhaps.

“Obviously Minnie Hauk if is going for the Arc and some of Aidan O’Brien other big ones, we’ll just have to assess what’s going where.

“We’ve got plenty of time and there’ll be plenty of discussion before we make our mind up. We’ll see what the ground is looking like and what the competition is.

“In the 50th year of their ownership of the stud, it would be a bit of a dream to expect to win the Arc, but it would be fun to have a runner.”

Moon Target team optimistic for the future

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Moon Target remains under consideration for some major end-of-season prizes, despite suffering defeat for the first time in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood late last month.

Sir Mark Prescott’s filly looked a hugely exciting prospect when making a winning debut at Newmarket in mid-July and she was just as impressive on her second start at Yarmouth under a penalty.

She was a hot favourite to complete her hat-trick at Group Three level on the Sussex Downs, but was under pressure some way from home and was eventually beaten three-quarters of a length by Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider Precise.

Moon Target in the parade ring at Goodwood
Moon Target in the parade ring at Goodwood (Steven Paston/PA)

“She ran well and it was the first proper race she’d been in really because in her first couple of races she just sort of dictated,” said Chris Richardson, managing director of Cheveley Park Stud.

“Things didn’t quite go her way as she was slow out of the stalls and got a bit of a bump and was caught wide. The winner had a dream run and we were always on the back foot.”

Moon Target holds big-race entries in the Rockfel Stakes and the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. When asked whether those high-profile contests could be on the agenda, Richardson added: “I wouldn’t want to step on Sir Mark’s toes, but we’ll certainly be discussing those sort of races and see where we go.

“I think a step up to a mile will benefit her and I wouldn’t mind trying her on slightly easier ground. The sire (Cracksman) produces horses that go on soft ground and there’s a bit of a Pivotal influence there, so we’ll see.”

Another Cheveley Park-owned juvenile filly who could test her powers at Group-race level before the season is out is the Andrew Balding-trained Imperial Ballet, who bolted up on her introduction at Newbury last week.

Richardson said: “We were very pleased and pleasantly surprised as she’d never been on the grass, so we weren’t really expecting a huge amount.

“We haven’t really thought about plans for her yet, but we will probably creep away I would expect with a view to having a little dart at the Oh So Sharp Stakes in October, maybe.”

Estrange keeps Arc hopes afloat with Yorkshire Oaks run

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The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe dream remains alive for connections of Estrange after she chased home Minnie Hauk in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks.

David O’Meara’s grey had looked every inch a top-class filly in winning four of her first five starts, most recently striking Group Two gold in last month’s Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.

Despite ground concerns, Estrange was given the go-ahead to step up to Group One level for the first time on the Knavesmire and her supporters must have been getting excited as she cruised menacingly into contention under Danny Tudhope early in the home straight.

She was ultimately no match for the Epsom and Irish Oaks heroine Minnie Hauk, to whom she was conceding 9lb, but there still appears to be every chance she could become Cheveley Park Stud’s first runner in Europe’s premier middle-distance contest on October 5.

“She ran a cracker on ground that maybe wasn’t quite ideal for her – she likes a bit softer. She was giving the winner 9lb and has finished second in a Group One to upgrade her CV, so we’re delighted,” said Cheveley Park director Richard Thompson.

“Two furlongs out, I’ve got to say, for a couple of seconds I thought ‘we could do this’. But you soon realised Minnie Hauk had too much and the 9lb was too much.

“The bottom line is it was a very good performance and we’re delighted to get second in a Group One.”

On a possible tilt at the Arc, for which Paddy Power make her a 33-1 shot, Thompson added: “The dream is not dead, of course it’s not, and if the ground came up right you’ve got to consider it because you don’t get many shots at the Arc.

“We’ll have to sit down and have a think about it, see how the ground looks and how she comes out of this race and take it from there because you’ve got other options for her, but the Arc is a dream of course as we’ve never had a runner in it and we’d love to have runner, who wouldn’t?

“You’ve got the fillies and mares race at Ascot on Champions Day two weeks later, so you’d have to see how the field was shaping up for the Arc and everything else. Ascot would be a good option for her as the ground should come all right for her there, it normally does.”

O’Meara was similarly delighted with the performance of Estrange and is looking forward to campaigning her at Group One level, wherever that may be.

He said: “Take nothing away from Minnie Hauk as she was tough today and she was tough at the Curragh – it’s what she does best. But we’re delighted with our filly, I think she’s run a very good race and we’re very proud of her.

“I was starting to get a little bit excited when Danny loomed up. She’s a lot of class, how she can move up so easy in a race – it’s a great asset.

“I’ll speak to connections and see what they’d like to do. We had this race in mind for a long time, for a while it was looking in doubt with the way the weather was and the ground was, but we’ve taken a chance and based on how she’s ran I think we were justified in doing so.

“I wouldn’t rule out the Arc, why not (have a go)? The only two older fillies that have won this race in recent years have both won Arc – Enable and Alpinista.

“Our filly has run a very good race today on ground that I think isn’t her optimum and she deserves her spot in Group One company.”

Estrange edges Lancashire Oaks verdict

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Red-hot favourite Estrange was made to pull out all the stops to see off Scenic in a thrilling renewal of the bet365 Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.

The David O’Meara-trained Estrange had made a huge impression when landing the Group Three Lester Piggott Stakes over the course and distance in late May, with targets as lofty as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe being mentioned in the aftermath.

Carrying the colours of Cheveley Park Stud, the grey was a 2-7 favourite to follow up at Group Two level and while she managed to get the job done in the hands of Danny Tudhope, her supporters were made to sweat.

O’Meara told Racing TV: “Danny was caught in a position where the leader (Love Talk) went off and it’s a question of when do you go after them.

“Danny said she normally falls asleep in her races, but today she was trying to chase the leader a bit and didn’t quite drop the bit and ended up in front then a long time. It isn’t really how we’d like to play her, but it was a means to an end I guess.

“She’s four from five now and she’s won her Group Two today, so it’s brilliant.”

Just four runners went to post for the Merseyside feature, with rank outsider Love Talk taking the quartet along for much of the mile-and-a-half journey before Estrange was coaxed into the lead approaching the final two furlongs.

However, James Doyle covered the move aboard Ed Walker’s Scenic and following a final furlong tussle, Estrange found just enough to win the argument by a neck.

David O'Meara has Group One ambitions with Estrange
David O’Meara has Group One ambitions with Estrange (Mike Egerton/PA)

While the victory was harder work than many expected, Paddy Power reacted by cutting the winner’s Arc odds to 12-1 from 20-1.

“We were hoping we wouldn’t turn up on good to firm so the drop of rain helped. I don’t think she’s absolutely reliant on heavy ground or anything like that, she just doesn’t want to be running on very quick ground,” O’Meara added.

“The Yorkshire Oaks would be the next target and we’ve got five or six weeks until York.

“She’s very relaxed, she’s unbelievable. Today she wasn’t as relaxed as she normally is because of the way the race developed, but it’s fine.”

Estrange takes next step with Lancashire Oaks challenge

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Five weeks on from her scintillating seasonal debut on Merseyside, Estrange returns to Haydock for the bet365 Lancashire Oaks on Saturday.

A brilliant winner on her Goodwood introduction last summer, David O’Meara’s filly failed to fire in a Listed event at Yarmouth next time but bounced back in some style at Doncaster in November.

The Cheveley Park Stud-owned four-year-old was not even favourite for her reappearance in the Group Three Lester Piggott Stakes at the end of May, but breezed clear of her rivals in impressive fashion.

“We were heading to Haydock the last day with quite a bit of hope – we thought she was very good based on her homework,” said O’Meara.

“I thought she would see out a mile and a half and it made for pretty easy watching. She lobbed along and it was apparent in the straight, when a lot of the other fillies were coming under pressure, that when Danny (Tudhope) eased her out she looked like she was just doing a half-speed.

“It was a great sense of relief when she won as so much can go wrong in races and sometimes horses don’t live up to what we think of them, but she certainly lived up to expectations.

“The ease with which she won did take me a bit by surprise, but we did expect her to put up a good show.”

David O’Meara has high hopes for Estrange
David O’Meara has high hopes for Estrange (John Walton/PA)

Connections have made no secret of the regard in which Estrange is held, with targets as lofty as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe being mooted.

O’Meara added: “Amazing Maria was brilliant for us then we also had G Force, while Mondialiste gave me great satisfaction when we took him to Canada and he won the Woodbine Mile.

“Far more of those good horses end up in other yards, so we are very aware that we are very fortunate to have Estrange in the yard and Cheveley Park Stud have always been very supportive to us.”

Scenic impressed in the Bronte Cup at York
Scenic impressed in the Bronte Cup at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

Chief among Estrange’s rivals in Saturday’s Group Two feature is Ed Walker’s Scenic, winner of the Group Three Bronte Cup at York on her most recent outing and subsequently recruited by the powerful Wathnan Racing team.

Walker said: “It’s a small field and fingers crossed it should be a good opportunity for her.

“Her plan since last year has been the Bronte, the Lancashire Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. That was always the plan and we’re still well on track.”

Formal mixing it against the boys in Criterion

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Andrew Balding’s exciting filly Formal takes on the boys in what looks a strong renewal of the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes at York on Saturday.

The seven-furlong Group Three is being run on the Knavesmire for the first time following a switch from Newmarket and is being viewed by some as a stepping-stone to the City of York Stakes, which now carries Group One status and is run over the same course and distance at the Ebor Festival later in the summer.

Formal disappointed on her seasonal debut in the Fred Darling at Newbury, but showed her true colours when winning Epsom’s Surrey Stakes on Oaks day three weeks ago and that form received a significant boost after the runner-up Saqqara Sands landed a Listed prize at Carlisle on Wednesday.

“We were going to wait for the Oak Tree at Goodwood, but Andrew was quite keen to let her take her chance on Saturday and I don’t think he’s discounted Goodwood either,” said Chris Richardson, managing director for owners Cheveley Park Stud.

“She seems to have come out of Epsom really well and they’re very happy with her. Andrew is keen to have a go, he thinks it’s a good opportunity and seven furlongs should be her trip, so we’ll all learn a bit more about her.”

The likely favourite is the William Haggas-trained Lake Forest, who returns to action less than a fortnight after finishing fifth over a mile in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.

The four-year-old beat Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winner Lazzat in the Golden Eagle in Australia last year and jockey Tom Marquand is excited to ride him back over this shorter trip.

“It was a good run at Ascot, it was a funny race as we sprinted from a good way down and it was the second wave who went over the top in Docklands and Rosallion,” Marquand told Sky Sports Racing.

“They were the best of the division and I thought he ran a respectable race.

“It’s a quick enough back up but he’s a tough little horse, he loves fast ground and seven furlongs at York should be on the money trip-wise so I’m looking forward to getting back on him.”

Paborus has won four of his six starts with Ed Bethell and will carry the Wathnan Racing colours for the first time.

Wathnan’s racing adviser, Richard Brown, said: “He wouldn’t want rattling ground so with the dry spell we’ve had we’ve just had to be patient with him.

“We’ll see what Saturday brings, he was very impressive at Thirsk last time and he’s a big horse who we hope has a big future, but we will have to mind him ground-wise.

“Ed is a great guy and one of the most impressive young trainers in the country and Wathnan are delighted to have a horse with potential with him.”

The Dylan Cunha-trained Prague was a brilliant winner of Newmarket’s Joel Stakes last season but failed to fire in the QEII at Ascot on Champions Day and has not been seen in competitive action since.

“He’s in great form – as well as I’ve ever seen him. He’s training really well,” said Cunha.

“The drop to seven furlongs is just because he’s quite keen in his races – we just want to teach him to settle. We’ve been going a mile and a mile and a quarter with him, but his mother (Princess Noor) was actually a six-furlong Group Three winner.

“It’s an experiment but if he runs in the first two he’ll go to the City of York. If it’s too short, he’ll run in the Strensall. He’s definitely going to York twice in the next two months!”

A Study of Owners in UK Flat Racing, Part 1

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As the title indicates, this article looks at some owner data for UK Flat and AW racing, writes Dave Renham. The period of study is from 1st January 2019 to 8th September 2024. Profit and loss has been calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP when appropriate. This is the first of a two-part series.

Flat Owners' Strike Rate League Table

Let's kick off by looking at the top 25 owners in terms of their strike rate (150 runs minimum to qualify):

 

 

Godolphin top the chart perhaps as one would expect, but hot on their heels is Marc Chan. The top six in the list all have decent A/E indices with four of that six hitting 1.00 or above. I will look at some of the owners in more detail later in the piece.

One owner to not quite make the cut is King Charles and Queen Camilla. Since taking over from the Queen at the end of 2022 the Royals have slimmed the operation down a little. They have had 21 winners from 164 runners (SR 13.8%), but losses have been steep, at £70.42 (ROI -42.9%). The A/E index stands on just 0.71. There has been performance drop off since the death of Her Majesty. From 2019 to 2022 Queen Elizabeth II had 270 runners of which 56 won (SR 20.1%) for a loss of £42.37 (ROI -15.2%); A/E index 0.92. It will be interesting to see if there is an improvement in performance with Royal runners over the next couple of seasons.

 

Godolphin

Godolphin had their first winner in December 1992 in Dubai and from 1994 the operation went global. At the time of researching this piece Sheikh Mohamed's racing entity winner-count worldwide stood at 8787, of which 430 came in Group 1 races.

Godolphin UK Annual Strike Rates

In this country they are based in Newmarket and have two trainers, Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Below are their overall yearly win strike rates.

 

 

There seems to have been a slight uptick in performance in the past three seasons (2022 to 2024). This has been reflected in the profit/loss column with 2019 to 2021 seeing losses of £368.61 (ROI -18.0%), while from 2022 to 2024 these have been much reduced to just -£38.48 (ROI -2.4%).

Godolphin Top Jockeys

Onto jockeys now and a look at all jockeys have had at least 60 rides for Godolphin and have ridden for them in 2024. I have ordered them by number of rides:

 

 

William Buick is the main stable jockey now James Doyle has moved on to Wathnan Racing. Doyle has still ridden for Godolphin this year but only 13 times and with just one win. Buick has an excellent record considering how many rides he has had. Betting all his rides would have yielded just a penny in the pound loss, while to BSP this moves into profit by £73.00 (ROI +6.8%). Oisin Murphy has an excellent record and primarily has ridden for bin Suroor. He’s only been called upon seven times so far in 2024 but has three wins from those rides. Going back to 2019 Murphy has an excellent record when riding in novice events. He has managed 18 wins from 41 rides (SR 43.9%) for a profit of £19.85 (ROI +48.4%). To BSP this improves to +£27.73 (ROI +67.6%).

Godolphin at Grade 1 Tracks

The next area to share is the stats at Grade 1 courses. This is where the biggest races tend to occur and a big operation like Godolphin do target quality.

 

 

The performances at Newmarket stand out. As you can see, I have split them into the Rowley and July courses, partly to show the consistency shown at Godolphin's local track. The two highest strike rates come from the Rowley and July course stats, both have shown profits to SP, and both A/E indices are comfortably above 1.00.

Now, the Godolphin stables are based in Newmarket, so the horses do not have to travel and are used to the surroundings. Even so, these stats are impressive especially given the quality of opposition they face at Headquarters. If you had backed all of their runners at Newmarket to BSP, profits would stand at an impressive +£172.44 (ROI +22.2%). If we look at the yearly BSP returns (ROI%) we see the following:

 

 

Profits in every single year showing excellent consistency. The last three years have been particularly strong.

William Buick has an outstanding record for Godolphin at the Suffolk track thanks to 133 winners from 368 (SR 36.1%) for a profit of £84.61 (ROI +23%). To BSP this climbs to +£121.46 (ROI +33%). Oisin Murphy is 10 from 22 and his mounts have returned a huge return to SP of 159 pence in the £. That has been achieved with the biggest priced winner being 9/1.

All in all, the Godolphin operation keeps firing year on year, and there are no signs of this abating.

 

Shadwell Estate Co (formerly Hamdan al Maktoum)

The Shadwell Estate is a world-renowned racing and breeding operation located in Britain, Ireland and the USA. Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum became one of the leading figures in international horseracing from the 1980s until his passing in 2021. He was champion Flat owner in Britain nine times, the last of which was in 2020. The operation is now run by his daughter, Sheikha Hissa. It is noticeable that the operation seems to have been streamlined since the death of Sheikh Hamdan with the number of runners per year roughly halving. This seems mainly due to the number of 2yo runners which have decreased dramatically.

In 2022 Shadwell had their best season in the 2019-2024 period hitting over 32% winners and returns to SP of 25p in the £. This year to date has been a little ‘sticky’ relatively with a strike rate of half that on 16.8% and losses edging close to 40p in the £. I am assuming 2024 has just been a small blip, based on going back further in time when they had similar strike rates in 2012, 2013 and 2016.

 

Shadwell Estate Trainer Performance

Below is a table showing trainers who have saddked at least 100 runners for Shadwell and at least one runner in 2024:

 

 

The Gosden, Varian and Burrows yards have all provided excellent long-term results, blind profits to SP and A/E indices above 1.00. This year two trainers in particular have struggled, with Charles Hills on just one win from 19 and Richard Hannon having drawn a blank from all of his 14 runners.

A trainer they may start to use more is Kevin Phillipart de Foy. He has had only four horses to date but three of them have won and overall, he has five wins from 12 from those horses.

In terms of jockeys, Jim Crowley gets the lion’s share of the rides and from 2019 to 2023 he made a blind profit to BSP in every single year, and to SP in four of the five years. This has not been the case this year which is no surprise given the 2024 figures shown above.

From a racecourse perspective, there are 11 courses where Shadwell has sent at least 100 runners since 2019. These favoured tracks have combined to produce a BSP profit of £199.67 (ROI 12.7%). I have graphed their A/E indices below:

 

 

Doncaster and Lingfield have extremely strong A/E indices of 1.29 and 1.26 respectively when Shadwell runners visit. At both courses they have provided good profits to both Industry SP and BSP and the strike rate at Lingfield has been better than one win in every three (34.3%). Kempton is another track where their runners have performed extremely well.

Shadwell Market Performance

Looking at the betting market, Shadwell runners have turned a profit on both favourites and second favourites:

 

 

To BSP profits stand at £45.85 (ROI +6.7%) for favs, and +£65.42 (ROI +14.4%) for second favs.

It will be interesting to see how Shadwell move forward in the next two or three years.

Cheveley Park Stud

The Cheveley Park Stud is Newmarket’s oldest stud farm and has been one of the major forces in European bloodstock and racing for over 35 years. With a strike rate of around one in six they have not been as successful as the likes of Godolphin, but there are still a few positive angles to share, as well as some negative ones.

Below is their annual breakdown:

 

 

As can be seen, it has been a little up and down. This year to date has been good, as was 2021. Last year saw quite a dip so it is difficult to get a handle on how things may go each year.

Cheveley Park Stud by Race Class

Onto to Class of Race next and here are the splits:

 

 

The headline here are those 38 wins at Class 1, with a profit to boot. To BSP this profit stands at £75.71 (ROI +29.3%) and sticking with BSP Class 1 races have yielded a profit in four of the six years. If we breakdown the Class 1 races we see that Listed races have offered the best returns:

 

 

All 17 wins from the Listed races have come with female runners. Females have provided 86 of the runners; the 11 male runners have drawn a blank. It should be noted at this point that around 75% of ALL the horses from Cheveley Park have been female with the vast majority of these being fillies, most of the colts from the stud being sent to auction.

Cheveley Park Performance by Surface

With most of Cheveley Park's runners being fillies, I suspect that the turf versus all-weather stats are worth looking at. Generally, female runners find it harder on the all-weather than on grass, so I am predicting that the red, white and blue-silked runners have a slightly better record on turf. Let’s see:

 

 

No surprises here. The turf figures are far superior to the all-weather ones across the board.

Cheveley Park Performance by Trainer

A look at trainers next. Firstly, a comparison of strike rates across the main trainers (60 runs minimum):

 

 

Quite a variance here, ranging from William Haggas at over 22% to Roger Varian at under 10%. Let’s see which trainers have produced the best A/E indices over the period of study:

 

 

David O’Meara is the standout with an A/E index of 1.11. He had a decent strike rate of close to 19% and has been profitable with Cheveley Park runners to both SP (12p in the £) and BSP (24p in the £). Also take notice if Danny Tudhope is booked to ride for O’Meara and Cheveley Park. They have combined to secure a 54% profit to SP, 71% to BSP.

The Gosden stats look a bit weird as they have been profitable to SP (18p in £) and BSP (26p in the £), but their A/E index is down at 0.84. However, this is because of a below average performance with shorter-priced runners. For the record the stable has made an SP profit in five of the six years.

Cheveley Park Market Performance

Finally for Cheveley Park, let me share some market data because it caught my eye. When the SP has been short (9/4 or shorter) the results have been quite poor. The ownership entity has managed 100 wins from 294 qualifiers (SR 34%), but losses have been significant at £69.53 (ROI –23.7%).

But when their runners have drifted in price from Early Odds (around 9am in the morning) to their final SP they have made a profit if backing to BSP. There have been 749 horses which have lengthened in price from Early Odds to SP of which 108 have won (SR 14.4%) for a BSP profit to £81.08 (ROI +10.8%). So don’t be put off by a Cheveley Park drifter. Drifters at single figure BSP prices have made a profit so these figures are not skewed by several big priced winners.

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That concludes my first piece. I hope there have been some useful nuggets for you to take advantage of in the future. I will continue from where I left off next time. Until then...

- DR