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Stat of the Day, 21st May 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Carlisle : Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Soon led, driven and headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 4th inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old is making just a fifth start today, with little/no data to work from, so I'll focus on jockey and trainer, who both do very well at this quirky venue.

We'll start with our jockey, Adam Kirby, whose record here over the last four (and a bit, ie since April 2015) seasons stands at 23 winners from 79 (29.1% SR) generating 45.4pts of level stakes profit at an excellent ROI of some 57.5% and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 6 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+95.1%)
  • over 7f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.9pts (+85.7%)
  • and in May : 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.4pts (+85.7%)...

...whilst trainer Clive Cox hasn't been as active as Adam here in recent years but actually has better figures than the jockey with 10 winners from 29 (34.5% SR) producing 17.6pts at an ROI of 60.5% backed blindly since 2014, from which...

  • those sent off at 8/1 or shorter are 10/23 (43.5%) for 23.6pts (+102.6%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 8/17 (47.1%) for 17.06pts (+100.3%)
  • on ground deemed quicker than Good : 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.11pts (+94.1%)
  • runners with less than 3 weeks rest are 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.04pts (+164%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.83pts (+110.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.4pts (+42.5%)
  • and in May : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.06pts (+129.5%)

...and from the above... Cox + Kirby + Brighton + Good to Firm = 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 7.62pts (+84.7% ROI), including 3 from 6 with runners who raced less than 25 days earlier, 2 from 4 at Class 6, 1 from 2 over the 7f C&D and 1 from 1 in May...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG which available from BetVictor & Hills (latter non-BOG until midnight) at 6.o5pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

8.30 Pontefact : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Steadied start, in rear, switched wide into straight 2f out, never on terms)

Next up is Saturday's...

3.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 

An 8-runner, Group 2 contest (Sandy Lane Stakes) for 3yo over 6f on Good To Soft ground (watering, even though there's heavy rain in the area) worth £51039 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, guys (and gals, of course!), late start today, but the usual amount of research has been done, but I'll cut down on the waffle!

A 3 yr old filly (so gets a useful 3lbs allowance) making her seasonal return some 253 days after completing a perfect 3 from 3 debut season as a 2yo.

Amongst those runs were two wins at this Gr 2 level including one (LTO) at Doncaster where she stayed on really well on similarly good to soft ground as she'll face today. She looked like she'd get further than that day's 5f and being another year stronger, I'd expect her to be well suited by the 6f on offer here.

Trainer Clive Cox won this race last year and comes here in good form with 11 winners from 56 (19.6% SR) for profits of 14.6pts (+26% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • at 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 21.3pts (+59.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.32pts (+18.8%)

Now although Clive had the winner of this race last year, he doesn't send many runners to this venue, but those that come tend to go well with 9 winners from 51 (17.7%) generating 43.9pts profit at an ROI of 86.2% since the start of 2013, from which...

  • over 6f course and distance : 5/20 (25%) for 48.8pts (+244%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 7.5pts (+53.4%_
  • and on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 44.7pts (+447%)

And for those of you concerned about the horse's 253 days off track, Clive's runners returning from breaks of 8 to 24 months are 10 from 40 (25% SR) for 49.9pts (+124.7% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • he's 5/12 (41.7%) for 27.5pts (+229.5%) on May
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 31.1pts (+444.7%) at Class 1

Clive also has a good record with LTO winners, but as this filly has been off track so long since her LTO win, I didn't think thise stats were as relevant as they could be today...

...but we've already definitiely enough for...a 1pt win bet on Heartache @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 10.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2017

Monday's Result :

4.45 Leicester : Royal Melody @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Close up, headway over 3f out, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on one pace, went 3rd close home...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly getting a handy 4lbs weight for age allowance, as she attempts to follow up her LTO win from almost 11 weeks ago over this trip on good to form ground at Bath. Yes, she's switching to the A/W here, but Lingfield's track is arguably the quickest artificial surface in the country, so it should be quick enough for her, assuming she takes to it, of course!

She hails from an in-form yard run by Clive Cox, whose runners are 13/54 (24.1% SR) and 6/27 (22.2% SR) over the last 30 and 14 days respectively, whilst his record with LTO winners stands at 27/106 (26.5% SR) for 56.3pts (+53.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of interest today...

  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 20/65 (30.8%) for 44.3pts (+68.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/56 (25%) for 22.1pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 13/48 (27.1%) for 24.4pts (+50.8%)

AND...3 yr old females ridden by Adam Kirby are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 5.92pts (+31.2% ROI).

But wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2013, Clive Cox's A/W handicappers are 39/248 (15.7% SR) for 69pts (+27.8% ROI) wit the following of particular relevance here...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 are 33/165 920%) for 83pts (+50.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 22/110 (20%) for 54.2pts (+49.3%)
  • females are 16/105 (15.2%) for 39.4pts (+37.5%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 19/104 (18.3%) for 26.3pts (+25.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 7/41 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+67.5%)
  • LTO winners are 8/34 (23.5%) for 10.4pts (+30.5%)
  • over a 1m trip : 8/33 (24.2%) for 38.7pts (+117.3%)
  • and on handicap debut : 7/29 (24.1%) for 21.6pts (+74.4%)

...all justifying... a 1pt win bet on Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Paddy Power and Sky Bet respectively at 5.35pm on Monday, whilst both Betfred and Totesport were at 7/2 non-BOG. They go BOG on the morning of races and I'll be settling up at Sky's 7/2. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: Better to have loved and lost?

I often wonder what the seller of a good horse feels when that animal goes on to do ever better than expected, writes Tony Stafford. What for instance were Peter Ridgers’ emotions as his one-time pride-and-joy Harry Angel stormed away with Saturday’s 32red Sprint Cup through the Haydock Park mud on Saturday?

Equally, how do David and Emma Armstrong react every time Ribchester, twice beaten in their colours after a 105k Euro purchase from the Irish National Stud, wins yet another major race, as he did in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (and £220,000) in the same Godolphin colours now sported by Harry Angel.

And on a similar theme, imagine the inner turmoil every time either horse turns out with their normally spectacular results in championship races, experienced by John Ferguson, the man who sourced both top-class animals for his former employers.

Ribchester was a notable coup, after those two initial second places, but as the latter had been as a 25-1 shot in the Gimcrack Stakes, the risk was probably at worst only a sporting one. Big Dave got the cash, and Godolphin the future winner of the Jersey, Jacques le Marois, Lockinge and Queen Anne before yesterday’s prize.

Harry Angel’s sourcing came in the spring after he broke Haydock’s track record with a scintillating display over the same six furlongs he graced in such devastating fashion over the weekend. He was beaten by Blue Point at Ascot before that, but gained revenge over his new ownership-mate when runner-up to Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and had him well behind on Saturday.

In between, Harry Angel also avenged his Ascot reverse with Caravaggio in the July Cup at Newmarket. Cox will have been an interested observer at The Curragh yesterday when the Aidan O’Brien colt resumed winning ways (he is now seven for nine) in the Group 2 Flying Five following a messy run in Deauville’s Prix Maurice de Gheest. A summit-meeting rematch between the pair beckons with most of the momentum behind Harry Angel.

Trainers who buy at the sales – Cox acquired Harry Angel for £44,000 at Doncaster’s Premier Yearling sale – need to follow a system with so many youngsters to assess and as the trainer stated in an interview, “it helps when you know the families”.

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Clive certainly knew Harry Angel’s family as he had bought the colt’s older brother Golden Journey, who also ran for Mr Ridgers, for 70,000 Euro as a yearling in Ireland. One win (at 10 furlongs) from nine runs might have been sufficient encouragement to buy him, but the eternal conundrum of race breeding is how far up the ability scale different members of a family might go. The pair may have expected more speed from a Dark Angel rather than a Nayef, but a champion sprinter, and potentially an outstanding one – probably not!

On a stellar weekend for the handler, Lady Macapa, who joined the Lambourn stable after being sold from William Knight’s team for 88,000 guineas at the end of her three-year-old season, gained her first victory for Cox in the Group 3 Prix du Petit Couvert at Chantilly, stepping up on all previous form.

Then another Cox discovery, the juvenile Snazzy Jazzy, retained his unblemished record, adding to Goodwood and Windsor victories by collecting 147,500 Euro for his defeat of 28 other juveniles in the big Tattersalls sales race at The Curragh. He cost 65,000 Euros at the qualifying auction and no doubt the trainer will have that venue high on his shopping agenda again this autumn.

Ascot holds its first full-blown yearling sale tomorrow and one colt I’ll have a metaphorical eye on is the Sepoy youngster, owner by Jack Panos, out of Anosti. Sadly, Raymond Tooth’s Tarnhelm, that colt’s half-sister has yet to win, but connections, as the saying goes, remain optimistic. Her trainer, Mark Johnston, will not be in attendance, as he has joined the annual migration to the Keeneland September sale – wish I was still able to get there – but he promised Jack when they met at Ascot on Saturday, that he’ll have him looked at.

Not everything that Clive Cox gets his hands on automatically goes over the line in front, and Raymond’s first meeting with him the previous day, also at Ascot, preceded a last of ten finish for his giant home-bred colt, Nelson River. Predictably green, he finished a satisfactory 10 lengths or so behind the winner, Herculean, one of three sons of Frankel that offered great optimism for the future over the long weekend.

Herculean, a big, flashy chestnut home-bred of Khalid Abdullah’s, trained by Roger Charlton, carried plenty of cash and strong recommendations before the race. He came home comfortably ahead of another Frankel product, Wadilsafa, trained by Owen Burrows. Ryan Moore, at the start of what might have been, for others less sanguine, a traumatic weekend, reported him a fine prospect, and it didn’t take long for talk of the Classics to emanate from the bookmakers and media. Then yesterday Elarqam justified Johnston stable confidence with a fluent debut victory at York.

No doubt that elusive Group 1 will soon be forthcoming for the stallion and quite possibly from Cracksman, who did his Arc de Triomphe prospects no harm with an albeit routine (and slow) win in yesterday’s Prix Niel at Chantilly.

There was more substance to the Prix Vermeille success of French-trained Bateel and she could emerge as a longish-price each-way shot on October 1. It seems the Arc is on the agenda again for Order of St George, third last year, and now a dual Irish St Leger winner having possibly been the recipient of Ryan’s general ire when driven well clear to win unchallenged.

Having been mugged late on in the Matron on Winter by 20-1 stablemate Hydrangea, and similarly foiled close home by another former mount, Happily, on Magical in the Moyglare yesterday, he seemed not in the mood for similar frustration on the champion stayer. It probably would not have mattered if Big Orange had stood his ground, and those of us who could not believe “George” had not picked up Michael Bell’s favourite at Royal Ascot, felt reassured here.

Another of Ryan’s weekend reverses came behind a Frankel, namely Nelson, trained by Aidan for ‘the lads’. Ryan was on the favourite, Delano Roosevelt, but was never going well enough as the winner set a strong pace. No doubt he’ll be on this nice colt next time.

Going back to Ascot Friday, we got plenty of encouragement going forward to longer trips for Nelson River. When Alan Spence saw him at the stable Open Day in the spring, he suggested we’d have to wait at least until the autumn. Isn’t it annoying when someone tells you something unsolicited and is proved right?

Of course, Mr Spence was another beneficiary of John Ferguson’s talent spotting for his old boss, Sheikh Mohammed and apparently is still counting the notes from the sale of Profitable last year. He smiled when Priceless, still in his colours, finished ahead of the older horse when they were fifth and sixth in the Nunthorpe. Has he booked that cover to Galileo yet, or will it be Frankel?

On a slightly lower level, Ray’s lightly-raced filly Betty Grable runs off bottom weight at Catterick (0-80) tomorrow and do not be surprised if she proves competitive. I’ll be there rather than Ascot or Keeneland and Wilf has done well to get Sammy Jo Bell to ride at 7st13lb. The old boy’s playing a big part in her rehabilitation after that bad injury.

- Tony Stafford

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.55 Hexham : Heart O Annandale @ 7/2 BOG Led, headed before 5th, reminders before 4 out, weakened before 2 out.

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Windsor...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Blitz @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly trained by Clive Cox, whose yard is in good form of late, rattling up 7 winners from 22 in the past fortnight and who also has a good record here at Windsor with 28 winners from 122 (23% SR) for 33.8pts (+27.7% ROI) profit from blindly backing all his runners here.

And of those 122...

  • 2-6 yr olds are 28/118 (23.7%) for 37.8pts (+32%)
  • at class 3-5 : 27/115 (23.5%) for 38.15pts (+33.2%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 28/100 (28%) for 55.8pts (+55.8%)
  • on Good & Good to Firm ground : 24/89 (27%) for 49.8pts (+56%)
  • and with just 0-2 runs that season : 24/87 (27.6%) for 55.9pts (+64.2%)

AND...2-6 yr olds at class 3-5 at odds of 12/1 and shorter on Good & Good to Firm ground with just 0-2 runs that season = 20/54 (37% SR) for 70.8pts (+131.1% ROI), and of these 54 runners for your Clive Cox Windsor micro...

  • handicappers are 11/29 (37.9%) for 42.3pts (+146%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/25 (32%) for 29.8pts (+119.1%)
  • on Good to Firm : 11/22 (50%) for 44.4pts (+202%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 15.4pts (+110.3%)

...supporting...a 1pt win bet on Blitz11/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 7.00pm on Sunday, but those able to take the 6/1 BOG offered by Betfred/Totesport (two tails of the same dog), would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.55 Hexham : Heart O Annandale @ 7/2 BOG Led, headed before 5th, reminders before 4 out, weakened before 2 out.

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Windsor...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blitz @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly trained by Clive Cox, whose yard is in good form of late, rattling up 7 winners from 22 in the past fortnight and who also has a good record here at Windsor with 28 winners from 122 (23% SR) for 33.8pts (+27.7% ROI) profit from blindly backing all his runners here.

And of those 122...

  • 2-6 yr olds are 28/118 (23.7%) for 37.8pts (+32%)
  • at class 3-5 : 27/115 (23.5%) for 38.15pts (+33.2%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 28/100 (28%) for 55.8pts (+55.8%)
  • on Good & Good to Firm ground : 24/89 (27%) for 49.8pts (+56%)
  • and with just 0-2 runs that season : 24/87 (27.6%) for 55.9pts (+64.2%)

AND...2-6 yr olds at class 3-5 at odds of 12/1 and shorter on Good & Good to Firm ground with just 0-2 runs that season = 20/54 (37% SR) for 70.8pts (+131.1% ROI), and of these 54 runners for your Clive Cox Windsor micro...

  • handicappers are 11/29 (37.9%) for 42.3pts (+146%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/25 (32%) for 29.8pts (+119.1%)
  • on Good to Firm : 11/22 (50%) for 44.4pts (+202%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 15.4pts (+110.3%)

...supporting...a 1pt win bet on Blitz11/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 7.00pm on Sunday, but those able to take the 6/1 BOG offered by Betfred/Totesport (two tails of the same dog), would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2017

Monday's Result :

2.50 Bath : Poets Society @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Brighton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxcatcher11/4 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly who was a winner by 2.5 lengths in this grade at Windsor when last seen some 197 days ago.

She's trained by Clive Cox whose runners have 4 wins and 3 places from 15 in the last fortnight and 8 wins/5 places from 28 over the past month, so the yard is in good current form, whilst here at Brighton over the last three seasons, the team are 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 12.62pts (+57.4% ROI), including...

  • his only runner at the track : 5/12 (41.7%) for 14.67pts (+122.3%)
  • females : 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.21 pts (+93.4%)
  • Class 5 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 6.92pts (+57.6%)
  • on Good ground : 2/8 (25%) for 6.44pts (+80.4%)
  • only runner of the day : 4/6 (66.6%) for 18.42pts (+306.9%)
  • and those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 2.71pts (+90.3%)

On top of that, Clive's LTO winners are 17/62 (27.4% SR) for 53.9pts (+85.3% ROI) over the last 12 months and of those 62 runners...

  • 3 yr olds are 10/36 (27.8%) for 25.6pts (+71%)
  • females are 9/28 (32.1%) for 28pts (+100%)
  • and at Class 5 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 2.22pts (+15.9%)

AND...3 yr old females running at Class 5 won 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 4.8pts (+80.0% ROI) profit...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Foxcatcher11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Monday Musings: Looking Forward, via Memory Lane

The weather men have never forgotten October 1987 and the unexpected hurricane that felled half the trees in the South of England, writes Tony Stafford. The Dewhurst Stakes had to be postponed by a day at Newmarket and I still recall the gaps in the treeline on the last leg from Six Mile Bottom, past Lordship Stud up to the roundabout by the National Stud and July Course when I drove along the next day.

Now every hint of a breath of wind from the Atlantic is viewed with utter suspicion by the forecasters. Last Thursday’s wee drop of Doris did cause some inconvenience in terms of wind speed, but less structural damage - nothing like what was predicted.

I spent the previous morning visiting two Berkshire stables I’d never previously seen. First it was to Beechdown Farm, Lambourn, owned and built by John Francome and professional home to Clive Cox throughout his now 18 seasons’ training. Then it was on, after a last-minute call, to West Ilsley, base for pretty much all of this century for Mick Channon.

The boss, Ray Tooth, has three “new” trainers for this season’s two-year-old intake, with both Channon and Cox joining the roster, along with Chris Wall. When asked whether he would like a two-year-old, Mick Channon said he’d be delighted. “I had one horse a while ago for Ray, and he wasn’t much good”. We’re hoping for better.

The Cox visit was pre-planned, its object to see the progress of the home-bred colt, called Nelson River, by Mount Nelson out of the winning mare, I Say. He’d had two easy days before Wednesday after possibly getting cast, so he did a canter limited to a short burst up the straight, but satisfied his onlooking trainer as we raced alongside in the jeep.

The rest of that batch of juveniles – “as a group they’re the best I’ve had”, said Clive – went a little further and Nelson River, a big, nice-moving colt, would hopefully have been back with them by the weekend.

Cox proudly showed me the private gallops of the 260-acre site developed with such skill by Francome, departed from our screens but in no way rueful, according to his tenant. “John is never happier than when driving a digger around the place.”

With Profitable now in Godolphin colours and My Dream Boat and Zonderland also back for another season, Cox must be hopeful of beating last season’s tally of 65 wins and £1.5 million in prize money. Harry Angel, easy winner of the Mill Reef Stakes on only his second start, is the main hope among a nice group of three-year-olds.

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Wednesday’s work was undertaken in the expectation of a light morning, probably in the spacious indoor arena, when Doris arrived on Thursday, so plenty was done. I was soon heading back east and while Jenni Tait in Mick Channon’s stable reported neither Mick (in Dubai, basking after Opal Tiara’s Group 1 win the previous week) or Michael junior, on the way to watch a runner at Doncaster, was there, they would happily entertain this surprise visitor.

So it was to West Ilsley, the stables that were to become the new home of Major Dick Hern the year after he won Classic success with my first equine hero, Hethersett, in the 1962 St Leger, when private trainer to Major Lionel Holliday.

For me, still at school, it was the ultimate betrayal, Hethersett being left to languish under the nominal care of head lad, S J Meaney, while actually having his campaign directed by the irascible Yorkshireman. Hern, taking over from Jack Colling, even had the effrontery of saddling Darling Boy to beat Hethersett in his comeback race, the Jockey Club Stakes, in 1963.

Jenni and her office colleague Gill Hedley seemed surprised I’d never previously been to West Ilsley, but both were understandably still bubbling over Opal Tiara’s big win in face of major Godolphin opposition in that Group 1.

Gill was part breeder of the filly with Channon. From the least promising beginnings, the unraced mare Zarafa was sent to Rathasker stud’s stallion, Thousand Words, a Juddmonte-bred quadruple winner, for Barry Hills and latterly in California for the late Bobby Frankel.

The resulting filly went through Ascot sales as a yearling, going unsold at 1,800gns, but after showing plenty of ability at two, attracted Qatar Racing, who privately acquired a half-share. Last year she made great progress, winning a Group 3 at Goodwood, but Qatar wanted to cash in, and she was sold at December sales last backend for 230,000gns.

Happily Gill stayed in and she said: “We have new partners who bought into her and they are delighted, as we all are”. No wonder, how many people breed Group 1 winners? If she does get sold later in her career, the numbers are sure to multiply once again.

Having enjoyed a classy filter coffee and luxury biscuits while talking to the ladies, we made the short 20-metre walk to see Telltale, another home-bred, already gelded, by Monsieur Bond  out of Yarn. ‘Mum’ was a strapping filly who was always placed but never won, coupling natural ability along with a wind problem.

When he arrived, the initial idea was to put him into one of the normal boxes, but as Mick junior said: “He’s so tall, he couldn’t go in there, so it had to be one of the big ones.”

I understood from Michael it was formerly Youmzain’s box, but Jenni said: “No, that’s two along.” So here he was, the gentle giant, impossible to miss with his big white face. So after admiring him, I noticed a plaque outside the box, proclaiming that it had been Halicarnassus’ domicile. That high-class Channon performer is now a stallion in Turkey.

Underneath, though, there was a larger plaque in bronze, with a single word scratched underneath – “Henbit”, the Derby winner. The names on the plaque, though, might give Telltale something to live up to. I searched my memory since driving away, but came up with only four of the five names.

In reverse order they were: Little Wolf, winner of the Ascot Gold Cup; Minster Son, St Leger; and then Nashwan, 2,000 Guineas and Derby; and shockingly, the great Brigadier Gerard. That supreme champion, winner of 17 of 18 career starts at the start of my career in racing journalism, according to his only ever jockey, Joe Mercer, was sick with mucus pouring down his nose, when losing to Derby winner Roberto in the first Benson and Hedges Gold Cup (now Juddmonte International) at York.

The Brigadier, later very disappointing as a stallion, was the last horse to beat his contemporary, the equally-talented Mill Reef, in the 2,000 Guineas. Most racing historians reckon that field, with My Swallow only third, was possibly the best ever for the Newmarket Classic.

So I enjoyed a wonderful walk down Memory Lane, but it was not long before the mood was replaced by frustration at Lingfield on Saturday. While the racing was excellent, with the featured Winter Derby winner Convey adding further lustre to Opal Tiara, who beat him at Goodwood, the absence of any betting shop, thanks to the ongoing dispute between Ladbrokes, Corals and Betfred, and the racecourses, diminished the experience.

You could catch sight of races from elsewhere, where allowed by the direction of the course TV feed with replays, previews and the like interrupting the middle of major races elsewhere. Betting, though, was limited to the Tote with the three main Ladbrokes points uninhabited and the screens blanked out. I bet many of those who paid £25 for Premier admission wished they’d stayed at home.

I was interested in Jack Quinlan’s mount Sir Note at Kempton and noticed it was around 4’s, not bad, on the machine. When he won - yes, Racing Post, Jack Quinlan was riding! - the SP was 7-1. That was annoying for ordinary racegoers without apps or Betfair accounts. This is one disagreement that needs ending fast.

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

5.10 Lingfield : Champagne Queen @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, effort over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Go On Go On Go On at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Clive Cox's 3 yr old filly has made a good start to her racing career with finishes of 213511 (511 on turf) so far and she's 1/1 over course and distance, 1/1 on good to form ground, 2 from 2 over this 5f trip and 3 from 4 under Adam Kirby, of which they are 2 from 2 on turf and 1 from 1 here at Bath (CD).

Moreover, Clive Cox's runners are 26 from 128 (20.3% SR) for 22.7pts (+17.7% ROI) here at Bath since the start of the 2011 season, with the following of relevance today...

  • fillies are 17/75 (22.7%) for 47.6pts (+63.5%)
  • those racing over 5/5.5 furlongs are 18/69 (26.1%) for 46pts (+66.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 10/36 (27.8%) for 29.2pts (+81%)
  • and those who last ran 21 to 25 days ago are 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.62pts (+71.8%)

AND...Adam Kirby on Clive Cox fillies over 5f here at Bath = 6/9 (66.7%) for 43.4pts (+482%)

...and so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Go On Go On Go On at 11/4 BOG with any of Bet365, Betfair SB and/or BetVictor, who led the way at 5.50pm. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Bath.

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Monday Musings: A Profitable System?

A simple but Profitable system for Ascot?

A simple but Profitable system for Ascot?

Monday Musings

By Tony Stafford

It’s Derby week and I’m sure you expect me to delve into the two mile and a half Classics taking advantage of my many years’ experience. With that in mind I had a nice day on Epsom Downs last week, at Breakfast with the Stars, where there were a number of stars, equine and human, and even more Breakfast of which your correspondent and for one that I can vouch for, Mick (Michael) Channon junior, partook with great alacrity.

It was later that morning when I started to project my thoughts a little further forward, having spent a pleasant half an hour in the company of Alan Spence, who has been having a good time of it with his horses this season.

Thoughts turned into research; research into statistics and stats into a sure-fire profitable system. How appropriate that the next horse to test the seemingly unbreakable thrust of my argument, is Profitable, owned by A D Spence!

Amazing. The system is one I bet cannot be replicated anywhere else in the history of English racing, at least not with such spectacular returns. It involves a Group 3 race run in either late April or early May, and a Group 1, around six weeks later. My research also encompasses an interim race, this time Group 2, with all three races being over the minimum distance.

So step forward, Newmarket’s Palace House Stakes on 2,000 Guineas day, the Temple Stakes (optional) at Haydock three weeks later and the King’s Stand three and a half weeks after Haydock.

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The Newmarket race has been going for more than half a century and I fondly remember the first winner, Galivanter, a Major Lionel Holliday home-bred trained by Major Dick Hern, who won in 1961. Plenty of army stuff there!

The Temple has an even longer history, but having been a feature of the old Sandown Whitsun meeting and run either on Bank Holiday Monday or the following evening, it switched to Haydock for the first time in 2008. Such are the differences in the two tracks, I have confined my studies to the Haydock period <lazy sod, Ed>.

Ascot in 2016 is also a fair bit different from its pre-2006 model, as the straight course has been re-aligned so that at the finish it is 42 metres further north (nearer the High Street) than previously. Inevitably the character of the track has been at least marginally altered.

So that’s fine, you say, where is this profitable system?

Ok, there have been eight King’s Stand Stakes run on the modified course since 2008, the period of the study. I took note of all the Palace House Stakes winners in the period and noticed that only four of them took the quick return to Haydock, none winning. Six of them went on to run at Ascot and four of them won.

Of the four that ran in all three races in the same year, Equiano, now a stallion at Newsells Park Stud in Hertfordshire, performed easily the best. Trained in 2010 by Barry Hills, he was second, beaten by dual winner and still active Kingsgate Native at Haydock. Equiano had also won the 2008 King’s Stand when trained in Spain on his first appearance in England.

In 2009 the Henry Candy-trained Amour Propre, a gelding, won at Newmarket, missed the trip to Haydock before finishing unplaced behind Australian sprinter Scenic Blast at Ascot. In 2011 Tangerine Trees, like Kingsgate Native still active on the racecourse, was easily beaten both at Haydock and in the King’s Stand (last of 19 to Prohibit).

Mayson, the 2012 Palace House scorer, got off the mark with his first stakes winner, Global Applause, in the National Stakes at Sandown last Thursday. He missed both Haydock and Ascot, but then took the July Cup (6f) before finishing runner-up in the Prix de l’Abbaye on his final appearance.

Otherwise, all the Palace House winners followed up at Ascot. Equiano’s second success, much more anticipated than his unconsidered first came at 9-2. The remarkable Sole Power, another durable gelding, took a close fourth at Haydock before his first Ascot win at 8-1.

Sole Power made it a double double – missing the trip to Haydock this time – at 5-1; and, last year, Goldream, having won the Newmarket race for sprint specialist Robert Cowell, bombed at Haydock, but came bouncing back at Ascot at 20-1!

So in other words we have six contenders for a Royal Ascot bet, with only two losers. The other four collected 37.5 points profit, making it 35.5 points overall, or almost 600% to level stakes.

So, what do we do about this year, you could ask? Well for the first time, the two key races have provided the same winner, the eponymous Profitable – by name and by nature. The last Temple Stakes winner to succeed in the King’s Stand was Cassandra Go in 2002, when of course it was run at Sandown. Sole Power has won all three races, but has had a fair few goes at it, and never in the same year.

Profitable, now four, and by Mayson’s sire Invincible Spirit, has apparently caught the eyes of several would-be suitors following his latest win in the Group 2 Temple. There he had to contend with softer ground than ideal, and the attentions of the talented Mecca’s Angel, who had beaten the flying Acapulco on soft in the 2015 Nunthorpe on her previous start.

The insistent attempts by sections of the media to suggest the Haydock result should have been reversed after the pair came close through the last furlong would have been less unfair had their proponents first contemplated the potential downside for the winner’s connections.

Profitable is one of the few top sprinters in independent (non-Arab or Coolmore) hands, and as a colt also a highly-attractive and rare stallion prospect, being by a noted sire of sires. Whether his value would have been adversely affected by a demotion – I’m sure it would have; who cares if a goal is incorrectly ruled out, it’s not a goal?– the result on the ground was almost certainly unaffected by their coming close together.

So with all that in mind, how can Profitable, rated by Timeform as recording the best Time Figure of the season, better than any of the Guineas winners, still be available at 8-1? Clive Cox is in flying form, too. Fill your boots. Wonder what price ADS has on his voucher?

My appearance at Epsom was principally to run the eye over Harry Champion, who went along to keep company with Hugo Palmer’s Oaks contender, Architecture. He did a nice job and acted well enough on the track, although his rider reported the ground was too soft. If Architecture wins on Friday, stay around for Harry in the last off just 8st 3lb.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Another non-runner on Saturday (our third from my last seven picks!) means I've nothing to report on from the weekend, which is probably just as well, considering I'm running a tad late.

Monday looks tough from a stats perspective and low on quality to boot, but I'm hopeful of a decent run in the...

3.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6 handicap for 3yr olds and older and the trip is a mile and a half on reportedly good ground and a race in which I've taken 100/30 BOG about Clive Cox's 3yr old gelding Duc de Seville and I'll be hoping the Duke helps me out of a sticky patch today.

Now, Brighton racecourse is hardly the other end of the country from Clive Cox's base in Lambourn (it's miles from me, but that's irrelevant!), so there must be another reason why he doesn't send many runners here. And as well as it not being the travelling, it surely can't be down to a lack of success either.

In fact, the last 13 seasons (including this one) have seen just 35 runners from Clive's yard make their way onto this track, but 10 of them have been winners with that tremendous 28.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 33.6pts at an ROI of 96%.

So, Brighton hosts around 20 fixtures a season and Clive sends around 3 runners a year here, so it's no surprise to find out that Duc de Seville will be travelling here on his own, but sending just one runner to a track often pays dividends for Mr Cox and over the last three seasons, these solo entrants are 69/438 (15.8% SR) for 98.9pts (+22.6% ROI) profit and in respect of this race, those 438 runners are...

  • 42/275 (15.3% SR) for 91.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit in handicaps
  • 84/138 (20.7% SR) for 109pts (+59.2% ROI) from 3yr olds
  • 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 8pts (+22.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 12.6pts (+73.9% ROI) at this 1m4f trip
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 15pts (+250% ROI) here at Brighton.

Of the above, 3yo handicappers at classes 4 to 6 inclusive are 24/111 (231.6% SR) for 97pts at an ROI of 87.4% with a 2 from 2 record here at Brighton and a record of 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) in these 3yo+ open age handicaps where the 3yr olds get a weight for age allowance, 9lbs on this occasion.

Clive Cox does well in this type of race using the weight for age allowance and since 2009, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of up to 1m6f have won 32 of 226 (14.2% SR) starts, generating 104.5pts profit at an ROI of 46.2%.

I placed my 100/30 BOG bet on Duc de Seville with the Betfair Sportsbook, as they were the best on offer at 11pm on Sunday night. To check that's still the case, I urge you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Another non-runner on Saturday (our third from my last seven picks!) means I've nothing to report on from the weekend, which is probably just as well, considering I'm running a tad late.

Monday looks tough from a stats perspective and low on quality to boot, but I'm hopeful of a decent run in the...

3.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6 handicap for 3yr olds and older and the trip is a mile and a half on reportedly good ground and a race in which I've taken 100/30 BOG about Clive Cox's 3yr old gelding Duc de Seville and I'll be hoping the Duke helps me out of a sticky patch today.

Now, Brighton racecourse is hardly the other end of the country from Clive Cox's base in Lambourn (it's miles from me, but that's irrelevant!), so there must be another reason why he doesn't send many runners here. And as well as it not being the travelling, it surely can't be down to a lack of success either.

In fact, the last 13 seasons (including this one) have seen just 35 runners from Clive's yard make their way onto this track, but 10 of them have been winners with that tremendous 28.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 33.6pts at an ROI of 96%.

So, Brighton hosts around 20 fixtures a season and Clive sends around 3 runners a year here, so it's no surprise to find out that Duc de Seville will be travelling here on his own, but sending just one runner to a track often pays dividends for Mr Cox and over the last three seasons, these solo entrants are 69/438 (15.8% SR) for 98.9pts (+22.6% ROI) profit and in respect of this race, those 438 runners are...

  • 42/275 (15.3% SR) for 91.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit in handicaps
  • 84/138 (20.7% SR) for 109pts (+59.2% ROI) from 3yr olds
  • 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 8pts (+22.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 12.6pts (+73.9% ROI) at this 1m4f trip
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 15pts (+250% ROI) here at Brighton.

Of the above, 3yo handicappers at classes 4 to 6 inclusive are 24/111 (231.6% SR) for 97pts at an ROI of 87.4% with a 2 from 2 record here at Brighton and a record of 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) in these 3yo+ open age handicaps where the 3yr olds get a weight for age allowance, 9lbs on this occasion.

Clive Cox does well in this type of race using the weight for age allowance and since 2009, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of up to 1m6f have won 32 of 226 (14.2% SR) starts, generating 104.5pts profit at an ROI of 46.2%.

I placed my 100/30 BOG bet on Duc de Seville with the Betfair Sportsbook, as they were the best on offer at 11pm on Sunday night. To check that's still the case, I urge you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2015

A moral, if not a financial victory for us at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

I had highlighted the success of Mark Usher's handicappers dropping in class and also the success of 2yr olds / females/ those running within 45 days / those priced at 12/1 and shorter. All of which fitted our selection Q Ten Girl perfectly. She ran a poor race, it has to be said, finishing 8th of 9, beaten by around 7.5 lengths.

The winner? Indigo, a Mark Usher class dropping 2yr old filly running after a 20 day break and priced at 12/1. You couldn't make it up! Of course there were other reasons why I ended up going with the wrong Usher runner, but the winner did at least justify the research.

I do, however, prefer profits to moral victories, so I want that point back from Thursday's...

4.55 Salisbury :

Via a 9/2 BOG bet with Bet365 about the 3yr old filly, Quite A Story, who will be ridden by the in-form Adam Kirby who has ridden 10 winners from 35 (28.6% SR) for 15.65pts profit (+44.7% ROI) in the last week.

And since 2009, he has ridden 124 winners from 895 (13.9% SR) efforts for Clive Cox for profits of 132.5pts at an ROI of 14.8%. Of those 895 runners, those priced 3/1 to 11/1 are 68/448 (15.2% SR) for 87.4pts (+19.5% ROI) and female horses are 50/371 (13.5% SR) for 87.1pts (+23.5% ROI).

If we combine the two, we end up with the following combo Kirby / Cox / females @ 3/1 to 11/1 winning 30 of 189 (15.9% SR) for 53.7pts.

Clive Cox's female runners here at Salisbury are 9/18 (50% SR) for 18.05pts (+100.3% ROI) with a record in handicaps of 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 7.87pts (+60.5% ROI) and Quite A Story come here after running well in each of her three starts. She was a runner-up on debut, before landing a maiden at Windsor over 6f at the end of June, but wasn't quite able to follow that up over the same course and distance a month later (17 days ago) on her handicap debut.

She now drops back in class in a bid to resume winning ways and the fact that she has finished 1st and 3rd in her last two outings makes her of my 1-2/3/4 horses which are horses that won two starts ago but were defeated into 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out. There are some basic criteria added to that but that's the starting point.

What I want is horses who won their penultimate run and then finished 2,3 or 4 LTO, 16 to 60 days ago. They need to be 3 to 5 yrs old running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on the flat (turf).

That might sound like exacting conditions, but we've had 1218 qualifiers in the past four (including this one) seasons. 222 of 1218 (18.2% SR) were winners, generating 319.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 26.2%. Female runners, like Quite A Story are 87/443 (19.6% SR) for 159.4pts (+36% ROI).

At 9.30pm you could still back Quite A Story at 9/2 BOG with bet365, BetVictor or Hills, so feel free to take your pick, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Salisbury

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 17th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2014

We backed Alfred Hutchinson at 5/1 on Saturday and beat the market by some considerable margin, as after attracting plenty of support during the morning, he was sent off as the 3/1 second favourite.

Unfortunately, beating the market with a value price was as good as it got for our bet, I'm afraid. The horse never really got going and although William Buick tried his level best to keep him in contention, he finished rather one paced back in 6th place. He was admittedly only 3 lengths adrift of the impressive winner Big Baz, but he never really looked like landing a blow and it was a disappointing ending to a fairly frustrating week.

The beauty of a daily service like SotD, though, is that I'm given an opportunity to quickly get back into action and it's more A/W stuff for us on Monday with a runner in the...

2.10 Wolverhampton:

Which is a Class 6 nursery (2yo hcp) over 9.5 furlongs on the Tapeta and my selection is the 5/1 BOG Mikandy.

Who is trained by Clive Cox...

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Clive has a good record on the A/W in recent years with 71 winners from 465 runners (15.3% SR) since the start of 2009 and the resultant 97.2pts level stakes are the equivalent of 20.9% of stakes invested. Trainers who are profitable to back blindly are always good to look out for, as you know the next winner won't be far away and that's certainly the case here.

From that unfiltered 71/465 record above, we see that Clive's handicappers are 42/293 (14.3% SR) for 71.9pts (+24.5% ROI), figures that are improved if we only back those priced between 5/2 & 14/1, where we would have 36 winners from 213 (16.9% SR) and a huge 118pts profits at an impressive ROI of 55.4%.

Ryan Tate rides and takes 3lbs off today...

As a 3lb claimer, Ryan is quite clearly still learning his game, but he does ride his claim out really well. He has used his 3lb claim in 34 A/W handicap races to date and the 8 winners he has ridden gives him a 23.5% strike rate achieving level stakes profits of 49.4pts at an ROI of 145.2% with a record here at Wolverhampton reading 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 14.9pts (+135.7% ROI)

Ryan is no stranger to the Cox horses either...

And has performed really well for Clive this year winning 27 of 119 (22.7% SR) races for today's trainer, including a win on Mikandy last time out, but more on that later! 😀 This 27/119 record has generated level stakes profits of 35.1pts at an ROI of 29.5% and from this starting point, we can derive the following stats...

In handicaps : 22/88 (25% SR) for 48pts (+54.5% ROI)
On the A/W : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 12.5pts (+56.6% ROI)
In A/W hcps : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 18.1pts (+129.2% ROI), of which they have a 2/6 record here at Wolverhampton this year.

Mikandy last ran just 5 days ago...

When she broke her duck with a first win at Kempton on Wednesday. I'm not concerned about her turning back out so quickly, as Clive Cox has a decent return from horses running shortly after a good run. Since 2009, horses running 5 to 10 days after a top 4 finish went on to win on 15 of 57 (26.3% SR) occasions and these runners have produced level stakes profits of 42.7pts (+74.9% ROI) to date. Those, like Mikandy who were actually winners LTO won again in 8 of 17 races (47.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts (+145.6% ROI).

That was also her first time in the frame after 7 unplaced efforts...

But horses turned back out onto the A/W within 25 days of a win that broke a sequence of 3 or more unplaced runs tend to go well again next time out. Mikandy's win wasn't totally unexpected last time, she had been improving, as seen by her form line of 0684444 and she was getting closer and closer to the frame. But the stat is as follows, horses priced between 5/2 & 7/1 running in A/W handicaps within 25 days of a win LTO which was preceded by at least three consecutive unplaced efforts then won again on 187 occasions from 947 (19.8% SR) races since 2008.

These winners have given rise to level stakes profits of 174.3pts (+18.4% ROI) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 67/316 (21.2% SR) for 75.9pts (+24% ROI). In the two years that Wolverhampton record has been improved to 20/66 (30.3% SR) for 56.6pts profit at an ROI of 76.6% suggesting we've a good chance of going in again today.

It has taken a while for the penny to drop with Mikandy, but after those four consecutive 4th place finishes, she finally got her act together at Kempton last time out. She won reasonably comfortably by a length and a half staying on well and looking like she had plenty in the tank, so the step back up to the extra half furlong shouldn't be an issue. Prior to that she was beaten here at Wolverhampton by less than 3 length over a furlong shorter than today and she was staying on at the death then too. The runner-up from that race has goe on to win since and this new trip should suit Mikandy better in my opinion.

This is a fairly ordinary race and with the majority of the filed lacking experience of this track, I'm pretty confident of seeing a return from today's selection. The call is, therefore, a 1pt win bet on Mikandy at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, but to see the state of the whole market, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Wolverhampton

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD : 17/11/14

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2014

We backed Alfred Hutchinson at 5/1 on Saturday and beat the market by some considerable margin, as after attracting plenty of support during the morning, he was sent off as the 3/1 second favourite.

Unfortunately, beating the market with a value price was as good as it got for our bet, I'm afraid. The horse never really got going and although William Buick tried his level best to keep him in contention, he finished rather one paced back in 6th place. He was admittedly only 3 lengths adrift of the impressive winner Big Baz, but he never really looked like landing a blow and it was a disappointing ending to a fairly frustrating week.

The beauty of a daily service like SotD, though, is that I'm given an opportunity to quickly get back into action and it's more A/W stuff for us on Monday with a runner in the...

2.10 Wolverhampton:

Which is a Class 6 nursery (2yo hcp) over 9.5 furlongs on the Tapeta and my selection is the 5/1 BOG Mikandy.

Who is trained by Clive Cox...

Clive has a good record on the A/W in recent years with 71 winners from 465 runners (15.3% SR) since the start of 2009 and the resultant 97.2pts level stakes are the equivalent of 20.9% of stakes invested. Trainers who are profitable to back blindly are always good to look out for, as you know the next winner won't be far away and that's certainly the case here.

From that unfiltered 71/465 record above, we see that Clive's handicappers are 42/293 (14.3% SR) for 71.9pts (+24.5% ROI), figures that are improved if we only back those priced between 5/2 & 14/1, where we would have 36 winners from 213 (16.9% SR) and a huge 118pts profits at an impressive ROI of 55.4%.

Ryan Tate rides and takes 3lbs off today...

As a 3lb claimer, Ryan is quite clearly still learning his game, but he does ride his claim out really well. He has used his 3lb claim in 34 A/W handicap races to date and the 8 winners he has ridden gives him a 23.5% strike rate achieving level stakes profits of 49.4pts at an ROI of 145.2% with a record here at Wolverhampton reading 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 14.9pts (+135.7% ROI)

Ryan is no stranger to the Cox horses either...

And has performed really well for Clive this year winning 27 of 119 (22.7% SR) races for today's trainer, including a win on Mikandy last time out, but more on that later! 😀 This 27/119 record has generated level stakes profits of 35.1pts at an ROI of 29.5% and from this starting point, we can derive the following stats...

In handicaps : 22/88 (25% SR) for 48pts (+54.5% ROI)
On the A/W : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 12.5pts (+56.6% ROI)
In A/W hcps : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 18.1pts (+129.2% ROI), of which they have a 2/6 record here at Wolverhampton this year.

Mikandy last ran just 5 days ago...

When she broke her duck with a first win at Kempton on Wednesday. I'm not concerned about her turning back out so quickly, as Clive Cox has a decent return from horses running shortly after a good run. Since 2009, horses running 5 to 10 days after a top 4 finish went on to win on 15 of 57 (26.3% SR) occasions and these runners have produced level stakes profits of 42.7pts (+74.9% ROI) to date. Those, like Mikandy who were actually winners LTO won again in 8 of 17 races (47.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts (+145.6% ROI).

That was also her first time in the frame after 7 unplaced efforts...

But horses turned back out onto the A/W within 25 days of a win that broke a sequence of 3 or more unplaced runs tend to go well again next time out. Mikandy's win wasn't totally unexpected last time, she had been improving, as seen by her form line of 0684444 and she was getting closer and closer to the frame. But the stat is as follows, horses priced between 5/2 & 7/1 running in A/W handicaps within 25 days of a win LTO which was preceded by at least three consecutive unplaced efforts then won again on 187 occasions from 947 (19.8% SR) races since 2008.

These winners have given rise to level stakes profits of 174.3pts (+18.4% ROI) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 67/316 (21.2% SR) for 75.9pts (+24% ROI). In the two years that Wolverhampton record has been improved to 20/66 (30.3% SR) for 56.6pts profit at an ROI of 76.6% suggesting we've a good chance of going in again today.

It has taken a while for the penny to drop with Mikandy, but after those four consecutive 4th place finishes, she finally got her act together at Kempton last time out. She won reasonably comfortably by a length and a half staying on well and looking like she had plenty in the tank, so the step back up to the extra half furlong shouldn't be an issue. Prior to that she was beaten here at Wolverhampton by less than 3 length over a furlong shorter than today and she was staying on at the death then too. The runner-up from that race has goe on to win since and this new trip should suit Mikandy better in my opinion.

This is a fairly ordinary race and with the majority of the filed lacking experience of this track, I'm pretty confident of seeing a return from today's selection. The call is, therefore, a 1pt win bet on Mikandy at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, but to see the state of the whole market, simply...

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