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Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, never near leaders, beaten by 6 lengths). Tough week so far, but we crack on.

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W  handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, as is generally the case, the racecard is our first port of call...

This suggests that aside from LTO, this horse has tended to be there or thereabouts (he doesn't win enough to be honest) and will be ridden by an excellent jockey with a good record on this track. What the above doesn't say is that his last four races haven't been on Tapeta and that he has made the frame twice in three starts here at Wolverhampton.

He's only ever won one race from 27 efforts so far, making the frame in just four other starts, but has one win and one place from two runs under today's jockey, so let's deal with that JC1 icon first before I look at other supporting data. We're told that Hollie Doyle is 23 from 115 (20% SR) here over the last year and she arrives here today in scintillating form after finishes of 122111 here at this venue yesterday.

Of that 23/115 yearly record here, Hollie has 11 wins from 55 (20% SR) at Class 6 and 10 wins from 38 (26.3% SR) over trips of 5/6 furlongs, suggesting she's a good judge of pace on lower grade races on a surface not all jockeys "get".

A quick look at the Geegeez speed ratings is self-explanatory too...

As, hopefully, is the pace/draw heat map...

And now I want to wrap this up by returning to my earlier suggestion that this horse might run better back at Wolverhampton after recent efforts on turf and there's some evidence that would be the case via his breeding, as offspring of the sire Camacho have fared better returning to the Tapeta after running elsewhere. This is probably better explained pictorially, so my saved micro-system is...

And of that 14/53 record, Camacho's offspring are...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 30.4pts (+95%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 7/25 (28%) for 24.27pts (+97.1%) at Class 6
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 16.6pts (+75.5%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 22.6pts (+141.3%) in 3 yr old races
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.46pts (+180.4%) over 6f
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) within 10 days of their last run

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 5-7 furlongs, they are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.34pts (+131% ROI), including 3 from 7 (42.9%) in 3yo contests and 3/7 (42.9%) at 1-10 dslr...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!