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Stat of the Day, 28th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Lingfield : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2 (Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened quickly final furlong) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Compadre @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m6f on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

Short but hopefully sweet today, starting, as is often the case, with the Geegeez racecard...

...with a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 4, 3 mile chase off a mark of 112 at Uttoxeter 11 days ago. He now drops in class and runs off 104 here for a yard that has done well recently with LTO winners.

In fact, that recent record of 4 wins from 11 for James Evans' LTO winners over the last two years is just a part of a record since 2016 where his LTO winners are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 17.12pts (+81.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 10/1.

The other aspect I want to consider this morning is the drop in class, because since the start of 2015, handicap hurdlers sent off at 4/1 or shorter dropped down one class from a handicap chase win LTO are 15 from 24 (62.5% SR) for 20.65pts (+86% ROI) profit, including 13 wins from 20 (65%) for 16.66pts (+83.3%) at Class 5...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Compadre @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!