October is such a brilliant month of racing that I thought we should celebrate it with a competition. And I thought it should have some GREAT prizes. And I thought it should be FREE to enter. Sound OK so far? Good! 🙂
The lucky winner will receive this magnificent Treve tribute bag packed with goodies themed around the wonder mare and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Inside the bag you'll find the following:
- Treve baseball cap
- Treve flag
- Treve wristlet
- Treve rosette
- Treve poster
- Special edition of Paris-Turf newspaper with 'Allez Treve' cover
- Paris-Turf magazine with Treve feature
- Longchamp Saturday programme
- Arc weekend media guide containing beautiful glossy high definition images
Win these awesome Treve goodies...
As well as that Treve-tastic package, the winner will also receive 2 x Grandstand tickets for British Champions Day next Saturday 17th October.
2 x BCD Tickets up for grabs
And, on top of that, they'll also receive my soon-to-be-released Breeders' Cup Compendium, the only guide you need for Breeders Cup weekend on 30th and 31st October.
Breeders Cup Compendium 2015: Coming Soon
One runner-up will also receive 2 x Grandstand tickets for British Champions Day.
And my soon-to-be-released Breeders' Cup Compendium.
3rd, 4th, 5th prizes
Three runner-runners-up (!) will receive my soon-to-be-released Breeders' Cup Compendium.
How To Enter
To win one of these prizes, all you need to do is follow @geegeez_uk on twitter, and re-tweet the tweet below.
It's a very (very!) bold claim, I know, but in today's post I want to introduce you to geegeez' new speed ratings, and to try to explain and/or validate the headline statement.
As well as that, I'll introduce the man behind the ratings, and I've come up with a related competition which is both fun to enter, and has awesome prizes.
First up, then, let me introduce you to the speed ratings, and the man behind them.
The job of creating a ratings set, if those ratings are to serve any valuable purpose whatsoever, is a gargantuan one. I have personally long harboured romantic notions about burning the midnight oil over many moons, refining and perfecting a set of winning ratings.
The reality is that life - business, family, horse racing - gets in the way and, in any case, there is no guarantee that after all the labour the numbers would stack up. A sensible alternative was to track down an existing ratings set with three key factors in its favour:
1. Proven at winner-finding over a period of time
2. Under the radar
There is a fourth element which relates to cost effectiveness and, therefore, to being able to secure the figures for geegeez subscribers. Happily, that box gets a tick as well.
The problem with the major ratings - Timeform, Racing Post Rating, and the like - is that there is a 'determinism' to them. That is, they are factored into the betting markets.
These days, with odds compilers having ready access to that info ahead of time, it's unclear whether the driver is cause or effect... but the key is that, while these ratings are good at finding winners, they are not good at making profit, because the odds are stifled by the volume of backers and by the cautious nature of the layers to the 'number' horses.
That's why it was fundamental for me to locate a ratings set that was under the radar. This normally means finding a very smart 'mad professor' type who is largely unconcerned by the world of marketing; and agreeing a licensing deal, which works well for both parties, with said very clever person.
Introducing the man behind the numbers...
And that's precisely the arrangement I've struck with Dr Peter May, a man some of you may already be familiar with. He's a serially published author, he wrote for Raceform Update and others (including attheraces.co.uk currently), and he is as scientific an aggregator of speed data as I know. And he has a cracking little website where he sells all sorts of interesting data here.
His methods eschew established practices such as the use of standard times, in favour of an iterative algorithmic approach based on neural networks. Neural what?! You can read more about neural networks here if you'd like to but, in the same way you don't need to know how a car runs to drive one, it's not necessary to understand the machinations under the bonnet to derive utility from these figures.
Dr May, or Peter to his friends, has a degree in Mathematical and Computer Science; a Masters in Expert Systems; and, a PhD in Artificial Intelligence. He is responsible for authoring the only racing book I ever started but couldn't finish, Forecasting Methods for Horse Racing.
I have read a number of Peter's other books, and I found them much more accessible, largely by dint of the fact that they had almost no complex algebraic theorems published between their covers!
So that's the man, but what of his ratings?
Ask fifty people who have produced ratings, or fifty people who have used ratings, how to use a set of numbers output from a ratings algorithm, and you will generally get a different response every time. One response you will probably not get is, "back the top rated blindly in all races".
That's because such an approach has so little finesse to it, such market agnosticism, that it cannot possibly be profitable. Except that with Dr May's ratings, it was.
From the start of 2012 to the end of 2013, Peter's top rated selections made a profit of 670 points at Betfair SP, blindly backing the top rated pick in the over 13,000 races on the flat in that time.
You will NEVER see Timeform publish the profit/loss figures for their top-rated, nor Racing Post Rating. That's because they habitually lose a stack. Take a look at the below table, which makes for eye-opening and instructive reading:
Favourite top, RP Ratings bottom
That is the current 'Press Challenge' table, as at 27th August 2014, taken from the Racing Post.
We can see that 'the favourite' outperforms every single daily newspaper tipster. And look, there at the very bottom of the table... is the Racing Post Ratings' performance.
Backing the jolly blindly would have lost you 7.43% of your dough - a slow and mildly pleasurable punting death.
Backing Racing Post Ratings top-rated would have been a much painful and rapid descent off your wagering mortal coil.
I use the above for illustration only. Because, as I said, it is not the intention of anyone that produces a rating set for its users to back top rated picks blindly. But, if you can do that and make a profit - or even get anywhere close to making a profit - then surely the opportunities for more selective use of such prophetic data are rife.
How best to use these brilliant ratings...?
That of course is the million dollar question. And the answer is... you decide.
Now before you get up and walk out, let me explain.
The man behind the numbers has produced a sort of 'system builder' tool. More accurately, it's an analysis tool, which allows users to try out various scenarios on the top rated selections under various conditions.
Dr May's software tools allow us to look at different age groups and/or different race types, and run a whole array of scenario against them very simply. The video below shows how easy it is to do.
And that gave me an idea for a competition. In the video below, I've come up with a scenario which looks like a profitable angle to use in conjunction with Peter's top rated selections. So what I want you to do is to experiment with the profiler tool and come up with your own ideas for profitable angles.
The best idea - judged by me and my helpers here at geegeez - will win a lifetime subscription to Geegeez Gold... which also means a subscription to Dr May's excellent speed ratings.
And one runner up - coming up with either a flat or a National Hunt angle - will win a year's subscription to Geegeez Gold, worth £197. Not bad, eh?
Here's how to enter...
1. Watch the video below
2. Install the software on your machine [Note, I'm sorry but I cannot answer technical queries either about the installation or the usage of the software. There is help at the link shown in the video].
3. Play around with some scenarios. Then, when you've found an interesting looking angle - either back or lay, flat or National Hunt...
4. Leave a comment below. Include your name, the code (i.e. flat or NH), and your angle in the comment. Please copy the angle details into the comment, and include the wins, runs, win% and Profit/£ figures, as outlined in the video. We will naturally be checking the ones we like best, so no making it up! 😉
Competition closes next Friday, 5th September. Here's a full video walkthrough of how to use the tool and enter the competition.
The PJM Speed Ratings will be live on geegeez.co.uk, for Gold subscribers, from Monday 1st September. If you're not currently a subscriber, you can take a ten day free trial here.
I'm very excited to be able to share Peter's ratings as an addition to what many people are saying are the most comprehensive and easy-to-use set of form tools and race cards available in Britain. And, with a ten day trial, you're welcome to judge that perception for yourself. 🙂
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2014-08-27 17:32:132014-08-27 20:19:53The Best Ratings In The World?
It's competition time again, courtesy of our generous friends at Seanie Mac. This week we're making it super simple to enter, with nothing as difficult as picking a race winner (which, by the way, nobody managed to do last week!).
All you have to do to win this weekend's £100 in free bets is be the closest to predicting the combined winning distances at Kelso and Warwick on Sunday, 8th December.
There are fourteen races across the two cards, and the cumulative distance by which each winner beats each second-placed runner will be the correct answer. If you're the closest, you win £100 free bet. Easy peasy.
How To Enter
To enter, you need to have placed a bet, or some bets, totalling £5 or more with Seanie Mac between now (Wednesday afternoon, 4th December) and the first qualifying race on Sunday, the 12.25 Kelso, when entries close.
Just leave a comment beneath this post with your Seanie Mac username and your estimated combined winning distances to be in with a chance of copping a hundred quid in betting vouchers.
Once we've confirmed the qualifying bet(s) was/were placed, we'll know our winner. 🙂
[Note, Seanie Mac are best odds guaranteed all races every day, and have loads of specials, particularly if you're a football punter. You can also check out my review of them here.]
If you still don't have a Seanie Mac account, your first bet will be matched with a free bet if it loses, for a stake of between £5 and £25. Plus they'll give you another free bet to the average of your first five bets, up to another £25.
My example entry is posted below.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2013-12-06 16:22:132013-12-07 09:30:13Competition: Choose a number and win £100
Our friends over at Ladbrokes Sports were so impressed with the response to our first ticket competition that they've given me another TWO pairs of tickets for Ladbrokes World Hurdle Thursday at the Festival.
To win one of these pairs of tix, just leave a comment with your idea of a great bet at the Festival, and your reason why.
I'll choose what I think is the best answer to win a pair of tickets.
And, because that may favour some people over others, I'll also choose one comment at random to win the other pair of tickets.
So, leave a comment below with your idea of a great bet at next week's Cheltenham Festival - and why you think it's a great bet.
Entries close at 4pm sharp Friday afternoon, 8th March, so get cracking!
The competition will take the form of a tipping contest over the course of this week. There will be two races a day in which to find winners.
To enter, simply leave a comment below with your selections for the day's nominated races. The winner will be the person who has accumulated the most profit from the ten races, Monday to Friday, this week.
In the event of a tie, the winner will be the person with the highest cumulative tote return and, if things are still tied, it'll go to count back on the next highest placed horse selected.
OK, hopefully that's clear(ish).
Basically, pick as many good priced winners as you can! Winners only, please, no each way selections.
I've added a comment with my own selections so you get the idea - feel free to add a thought or two if you like, but there are no bonus points available for your 'working out'! 😀
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2013-02-11 10:10:182013-02-15 16:36:33Win tickets to Cheltenham Festival 2013