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Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Wetherby : Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, outpaced in 4th 4 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

Why?...

Big field, soft ground handicap chases aren't for the faint hearted, not even at this low grade of racing, but thankfully we've got a 7 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions.

A winner of each of his last three starts since blinkers were applied, all at 3m or beyond, all on soft or softer ground, all going right handed, all under jockey Conor Ring who again claims 3lbs and one win here at Exeter.

He's up another 5lbs for that latest win, but has had more than four weeks to get his his exertions and also takes a drop in class to run here today. He's not fazed by company (his wins were in fields of 10, 11 & 12 runners) and I expect another bold show today from this former heavy ground 3m PTP winner.

As for his trainer sending him here again, that's possibly because Evan Williams' runners are 20 from 91 (22% SR) for 65.7pts (+72.2% ROI) backed blindly here at Exeter since 2015.

Obviously I rarely (if ever) advocate backing every runner from a particular trainer at a track and I prefer to isolate certain profitable/relevant angles to our advantage and here's a baker's dozen of such possible lines of approach from those 91 runners...

  1.  18/77 (23.4%) for 65.8pts (+85.4%) from male runners
  2.  18/71 (25.4%) for 63.7pts (+89.7%) in races worth less than £11,000
  3.  14/51 (27.5%) for 62.5pts (+122.6%) in handicaps
  4.  13/47 (27.7%) for 54.4pts (+115.7%) with 6/7 yr olds
  5.  13/29 (44.8%) for 35.5pts (+122.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  6.  12/42 (28.6%) for 49.7pts (+118.4%) at 26-90 days since they last ran
  7.  12/35 (34.3%) for 66.1pts (+188.8%) on soft ground
  8.  9/38 (23.7%) for 24.3pts (+63.9%) from chasers
  9.  8/22 (36.4%) for 15.9pts (+72.3%) at Class 5
  10.  5/24 (20.8%) for 37.9pts (+157.9%) at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f
  11.  5/14 (35.7%) for 27.6pts (+196.9%) from LTO winners
  12.  5/10 (50%) for 21.41pts (+214.1%) with handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 15/2
  13.  and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.22pts (+191.3%) from those with one previous course win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Tuesday, with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!