Thursday's pick was...
5.05 Newcastle : Buniann @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, driven and effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on but failed narrowly) A nice run, but he just couldn't get his head in front. Smashed the SP up, though.
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Corvair @ 7/2 BOG
...in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...
Like yesterday's possibly unlucky runner, I'll break today's analysis down into horse, trainer and jockey. I don't always do it this way, I do often mix it up with some less than obvious angles!
But let's start with the horse himself, a 3 yr old Colt making his sixth start after finishing 22111 in his previous runs, all on the All-Weather, including of particular interest today...
- 3 wins and a place from 4 going left handed
- 2 wins and a place from 3 over 7 furlongs
- 2 from 2 as a 3 yr old
- 2 from 2 in handicaps
- 2 from 2 here at Lingfield
- 1 from 1 at Class 3
- and 1 from 1 over course and distance
All of which makes me happy enough to move on to our trainer, Simon Crisford (now sharing his licence with son Ed) whose horses I keep an eye out for in handicaps on the Polytrack here at Lingfield, especially those at the sharp end of the market, as at odds shorter than 5/1, they are 19 from 50 (38% SR) for 19.3pts (+38.6% ROI), with the following filters of relevance today...
- 15/27 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+117.7%) after April each year
- 13/29 (44.8%) for 18.2pts (+62.6%) with male runners
- 10/27 (37%) for 14.3pts (+52.9%) in handicaps
- 10/26 (38.5%) for 10.5pts (+40.5%) with 3 yr olds
- 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.3pts (+118.5%) with LTO winners
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.27pts (+25.3%) over this 7f course and distance
- and 2/6 (33.3%) for 3.79pts (+63.2%) with runners rested for 3-6 months
The Crisford sub-5/1 male handicappers are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.3% ROI) during May to December, including 3 from 4 (75%) for 11.28pts (+282.1%) as 3 yr olds.
Corvair is Simon (& Ed's, of course) sole runner at this venue today, although they do send one to HQ and the yard has a good record when sending just one runner to a track, especially in handicaps, as such runners are 62 from 267 (23.2% SR) for 72.6pts (+27.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017.
Blindly backing an angle with so many runners isn't my thing, of course, so let's see if we can find some logical/profitable filters/angles, shall we? Such as...
- 54/217 (24.9%) for 92.1pts (+42.5%) sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
- 53/206 (25.7%) for 90.7pts (+44%) within 130 miles of base
- 44/156 (28.2%) for 80pts (+51.3%) in races worth less than £8k
- 40/156 (25.6%) for 68.8pts (+44.1%) with 3 yr olds
- 21/72 (29.2%) for 55.8pts (+77.5%) in 3yo races
- 21/59 (35.6%) for 68.2pts (+115.6%) in June/July
- 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) with Oisin Murphy in the saddle (more on him very shortly)
- and 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.2pts (+336%) with runners unraced for 3-5 months
And the Crisford solo travellers sent less than 130 miles from home to compete for less than £8k in a 3yo handicap at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 are 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.2% ROI), including 10 winners from 15 (66.6%) for 49.1pts (+327.2%) during June to September!
And finally (!) for today, the jockey, as you've probably guessed from above is the excellent Oisin Murphy, who (a) I thought might have been at Newmarket today and (b) has been riding really well this week making the frame 13 times from 24 (54.2%) including picking up three winners.
But it's his relationship with team Crisford that is of particular note here, because Oisin is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 17.7pts (+70.8% ROI) on the yard's handicappers to date, a good number of winners from not many rides and at backable prices, including...
- 6/18 (33.3%) for 19.6pts (+108.8%) on male runners
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.3pts (+151.8%) on 3 yr olds
- 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) in races worth £4k to £10.5k
- and 3/10 (30%) for 7.92pts (+79.2%) at Class 3
...whilst combining the above tells us that Oisin Murphy is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 29.2pts (+486.7% ROI) on the Crisford 3 yr old male handicappers in races worth £4k to £10.5k, including 2 from 3 for 9.82pts at Class 3...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Corvair @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!