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Stat of the Day, 8th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Leicester : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by vet : heat in leg)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5,  Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £3,249 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start, as is often the case with the visual clues on the racecard...

...which tells us that we have an LTO winner who has won over course and distance (also LTO) and is top ranked on the Geegeez Speed ratings and will be ridden by a top jockey who has a good record at this venue.

I'm not going too deep into the ratings issue, as I'm not privy to how they are calculated, but I'd just say that the name "Speed" can be misleading, they're more of a neural rating taking the specific race into account, so they do still have merit beyond a 6f sprint!

As for jockey Richard Johnson, no surprises to see him have the C1 and C5 icons next to his name, courtesy of 21.4% and 19.5% strike rates respectively. He's a top jockey and as such is often over-bet, so whilst he wins his fair share here in Devon, one needs to be selective about the ones backed.

If I didn't want to pick his rides on a race by race basis, I'd focus on the lower end ie Class 5 & 6, where I feel the top jockeys earn their money by getting that little bit more out of average horses. Following Dicky on these lower grade runners since 2015 would give you this...

...numbers we can live with!

Finally for this morning, I want to look at the chances of our pick winning back to back course and distance contests after just a short break and I'm heartened by the fact that since 2015, horses turned back out at odds of 7/1 and shorter here at Newton Abbot less than three weeks after a course and distance win are...

...not the biggest sample size, but a near-41% strike rate yielding over 83p profit from £1 staked isn't to be dismissed lightly and despite only having 27 qualifiers in the 2015-20 timeframe, the following snippets are of relevance today...

  • 11/23 (47.8%) for 26.47pts (+115.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 9/18 (50%) for 27.75pts (+151.1%) off a mark raised by 6lbs or more from LTO
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 8.12pts (+42.7%) on Good ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 16.84pts (+93.6%) over hurdles
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 10.19pts (+59.9%) won by 4 lengths or less LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.39pts (+152.8%) at odds of 5/2 to 7/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.74pts (+67.7%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) in 2020
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.39pts (+147.8%) from female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 4pts (+80%) in September...

...whilst hurdlers in 5-12 runner contests off marks 6lbs or more higher than an LTO C&D win by 0-4 lengths are 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 13.15pts (+187.9% ROI)...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!