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Stat of the Day, 4th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, hung left and pressed inside final furlong, headed close home, beaten by a head). After a rough few days, that was hard to take, but we dust ourselves down and go again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cruising @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard says...

So, let's see how the above could have a bearing on today's contest...

The speed rating is, as always, self-explanatory, second only to a runner half our price and now on to the three highlighted Report Angles (my settings are always 20%+ wins, A/E of 1.25+ and IV of 1.5+) which are, as you know, a 24-month window on performance.

From the top working down...Jockey 14-day form (14 on the card, too) : Paul Mulrennan is riding really well right now and had 3 winners from 8 yesterday at Hamilton.  And of his 13/56 fortnightly record, all were on grass and he is 8/31 ( 25.8% SR) over 7f or shorter.

Then the Trainer/Jockey Combo... Paul's 6 from 18 over the last 12 months for trainer David Brown actually looks like this in 2020...

including...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.84pts (+198%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.35pts (+76.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (73.3%) with LTO winners...

...leading us nicely to the third angle...David Brown's LTO winners, who more long-term ie since the start of 2016 in handicaps of 9 furlongs or shorter are...

from which they have the following relevant records...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 35.52pts (+82.6%) from male runners
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 39.35pts (+87.5%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.57pts (+89.6%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+136.3%) on the Flat
  • and 5/20 (25%) for 7.69pts (+38.5%) at Class 5

...and if you wanted a composite micro based around those categories above ie sex, distance and field size, you could try males over 5-7f in 6-10 runner contests for ...

...including 5/11 (45.5%) on the Flat and 5/9 (55.6%) at Class 5 and 22/3 (66.6% SR) for 14.24pts (+474.6% ROI) in Class 5 contests on the Flat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cruising @ 13/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!