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Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

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Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.25 Sedgefield : Runswick Relax @ 7/2 BOG WON at 15/8 (Made all, clear before 2 out, kept on strongly, eased down unchallenged and still won by 19 lengths!)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

4.25 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Symphony of Pearls @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Trained by Dai Burchell, whose NH handicappers priced at 13/2 and shorter are 39/134 (29.1% SR) for 71.8pts (+53.6% ROI) since the start of 2008, broken down as follows...

  • those last seen 1-20 days ago are 24/72 (33.33% SR) for 59.6pts (+82.8% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 20/68 (29.4% SR) for 44.7pts (+65.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 32.8pts (+52.1% ROI)
  • those competing at trips of 16.5 to 19.5 furlongs are 19/54 (35.2% SR) for 60.4pts (+111.8% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 10/24 (41.7% SR) for 31.6pts (+131.8% ROI)
  • those ridden by a 7lb claimer are 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 21.8pts (+94.8% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 19.2pts (+120.1% ROI)
  • females are 6/15 (40% SR) for 23pts (+153.5% ROI)
  • and here at Bangor : 1/2 (50% SR) for 1.8pts (+90% ROI)

Symphony of Pearls has been raised 5lbs for a 3.25 length success at Stratford last time out (11 days ago) on soft ground over today's trip and with today's jockey having a 2lb higher claim than that last run, an overall rise of 3lbs shouldn't be too much of an issue in favourable conditions.

That run took the horse's form over her last 6 runs to 324571, making her one of my back to form hurdlers I like to back. What I look for is handicap hurdlers who won LTO 11 to 30 days ago after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts. Since the start of 2012, such runners are 119/569 (20.9% SR) for 190.8pts at a decent ROI of 33.5% and as a standalone micro-system, it works really well.

Those numbers alone would justify today's pick, but I'm aware that not everyone wants 130+ selections per year from one micro, so we can break those 569 runners down as follows...

  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 114/525 (21.7% SR) for 216.7pts (+41.3% ROI)
  • Class 3 to 5 runners are 114/513 (22.2% SR) for 198pts (+38.6% ROI)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 11/1 are 100/450 922.2% SR) for 155.9pts (+34.7% ROI)
  • those who won more than a neck to 4 lengths LTO are 66/316 (20.9% SR) for 172.1pts (+54.5% ROI)
  • those racing over 15.5f to 17f are 41/189 (21.7% SR) for 46.7pts (+24.7% ROI)
  • on soft ground, they are 37/141 (26.2% SR) for 49.3pts (+35% ROI)
  • femailes are 22/100 922% SR) for 30.2pts (+30.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Symphony of Pearls at 9/2 BOG with any one of around half a dozen firms with that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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