Posts

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.25 Chelmsford : Babouska @ 7/2 BOG non-runner

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

I'm expecting Vyta Du Roc to bounce back to form now he's dropped in class, especially with the Nicky Henderson stable in such great recent form, having saddled up an astonishing 12 winners from 26 (46.2% SR) in the last 14 days alone!

When chasing Thistlecrack home at Aintree in 2015 Grand National Meeting, he was rated at 150 over hurdles and then went on to beat a couple of decent 150+ chasers La Mercurey & Minella Rocca) at Ascot last year. He's been a touch disppointing of late and now finds himself almost a stone lighter in the ratings at 139.

He's not been at his best recently, but he has been running at a higher grade in larger fields than he's happier with. A quick look at his record shows he's actually 6 from 11 in fields of less than 14 runners and he's also 6 from 11 when priced below 6/1.

On top of those stats, he 3/5 on soft ground (which at least some of the track will be!), 2 from 6 under Daryl Jacob, 2 from 2 going right handed and won his only previous Class 3 outing.

So, we have a yard in form running a horse who looks well suited by conditions, the final piece of the jigsaw is to see how the yard fares at the venue in general and since the start of 2012, Nicky Henderson's runners here at Kempton are 73/249 (29.3% SR) for 102.5pts (+41.2% ROI) and these excellent figures also contain the following of relevance / interest to me today...

  • those with no more than 15 previous runs  : 67/204 (32.8%) for 118.2pts (+57.9%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 60/194 (30.9%) for 106.2pts (+54.7%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 33/110 (30%) for 82.7pts (+75.2%)
  • handicappers are 19/85 (22.4%) for 65.9pts (+77.5%)
  • chasers are 22/69 (31.9%) for 12.9pts (+18.7%)
  • on soft ground  :18/67 (26.9%) for 13.5pts (+20.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 16/56 (28.6%) for 34.5pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 3 : 15/50 (30%) for 21.6pts (+43.2%)

...which suggested to me...a 1pt win bet on Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 10Bet, 188Bet, NetBet and Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Tikkapick @ 5/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting Abandoned)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Messire Des Obeaux @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding warmed up for this race by winning by 10 lengths 23 days ago and has won his only start on good to soft ground and on his only ride under Daryl Jacob.

Trainer Alan King's runners are in great form, winning 9 of 43 (20.9% SR) in the past fortnight and 6 of 21 (28.6%) in the last 7 days, whilst jockey Daryl Jacob's figures in that same time frame are 10/33 (30.3%) and 8/18 (44.4%) respectively. And Daryl is 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 49.5pts (+75% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012.

In addition to the above , since 2010 Alan King's Class 1 to 3 runners are 15/93(16.1% SR) for 14.1pts (+15.2% ROI) here at Sandown, whilst his runners over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f are 11/46 (23.9%) for 48.2pts (+104.8%)

AND...Alan King / Class 1-3 / 2m4f to 3m1f / Sandown / 2010-16 = 11/44 (25% SR) for 50.2pts (+114.1% ROI)

...and...a 1pt win bet on Messire Des Obeaux at 7/2 BOG from Betfair Sports and/or Paddy Power, as of 6.05pm on Thursday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2013

Stat of the Day: 02/04/13

Stat of the Day: 02/04/13

Stat of the Day, 2nd April 2013

Nothing doing yesterday as Woody Waller failed to finish the race. He didn't run badly and kept himself well in touch, until weakening in the latter stages. He was, as suggested, the outsider of the field, but was by no means disgraced despite being eventually pulled up two from home.

We're coming down South today, to Devon in fact for a decent-looking Class 3 Handicap Hurdle. The ground is set to be good to soft (good in places) for the fiteen runners contesting today's...

2.40 Exeter

It's not very often you'll see the name Paul Nicholls crop up on SotD, nor is it a common occurrence to see one of his runners available at 9/1, despite the horse having a 100% record.

Yet, all of those unlikely events have come together today, as we'll be placing our daily shilling on Watergate Bay, who is Mr Nicholls' only hurdler on display today and will be looking to maintain his yard's excellent results over the Exeter hurdles in recent years.

Paul has sent 23 hurdlers here in the last two years and as you'd expect, he has been quite prolific. His returns from those races are 8 winners (34.8%) and a total of 16 placed (69.6%), including those winners. And once again today, the yard will be asking Daryl Jacob to get this horse home and the jockey himself is no stranger round these parts, having secured nine place finishes from fifteen attempts over hurdles here in the last two years.

What about the horse itself? As I said earlier, it has a 100% record to date. However, that's just from one outing and that race was some 495 days ago, which probably accounts for some of the reasons for the current long price. That win came at Taunton back in late-November 2011 where he stayed on well to win comfortably over a trip just a half furlong longer than today's 2 miles 3 furlongs.

Mr Nicholls' horses don't often fail for a lack of fitness and the long layoff for this one won't strike too much concern to his yard and as a brother to the very useful Fistral Beach, I'd assume that better things than this are expected of Watergate Bay.

Today's selection is a fairly speculative punt and much of today's selection is based on trust/gut feeling that the yard will have this one ready, but it's not every day that we'll get such long odds on a Nicholls-trained horse at a provincial meeting. Thus the call today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Watergate Bay at 9/1 BOG with Stan James, but as ever, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.40 Exeter

Sat TV Trends: 9th Feb 2013

Newbury

Great Action At Newbury On Saturday

Plenty more Cheltenham clues on offer this weekend – Andy Newton’s got all the main races from Newbury, Warwick & Leopardstown covered for you...... Read more

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2012

Stat of the Day 9/12/12

Stat of the Day 9/12/12

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2012

Another poor showing for an SotD selection yesterday, as I seem to be going through somewhat of a drought this month. Paphos never got involved yesterday and at no point did he look like a horse that was 4/4 over C&D. He eventually came home in 6th place at 4/1.

I've had enough of Lingfield to last me a while, it seems like they've had meetings every day for ages! With this in mind, we're off to the heart of England for a Class 4 Beginners' Chase over the minimum 2 miles on soft ground, as thirteen runners are set to go to post for the...

1.10 Warwick

Trainer Nick Williams has only sent six runners to Warwick in the last two years, but they have all performed impressively, rewarding him with figures of 123112, a 50% winning strike rate giving profits of 13pts, whilst his 100% record at getting horses in the frame has benefited E/W backers to the tune of 17pts from just four bets.

Of those six runners, three of them were chasers: recording results of 112. The yard is in decent form too, with two winners and two others placed from six races over the last week.

Nick has two runners out at Warwick today: both chasers. George Nympton has a chance of making the frame in the 1.40 race, but I'm more drawn to the previous race, where we will be represented by Greywell Boy. (George Nympton, incidentally won this very race last year.)

Greywell Boy was sixth on his chasing debut at Bangor in October and will undoubtedly have learned plenty from that outing and he is expected to come on for that run. He was also placed in a couple of hurdle events last Autumn, before his recent switch to the bigger obstacles. In fact, his best form over hurdles came over trips of 16.5 and 17 furlongs and the outing at Bangor was a 2m 5f contest, which proved too far for him. The drop back to 2 miles should suit him far better today.

Daryl Jacob was on board for that last race and he takes the ride once again today, so we know the jockey is at least able to get our mount over the fences! Daryl, himself, has a decent record at Warwick with a strike rate of 27% (55% of horses placed) from 22 rides over the last couple of years and he's in pretty good form at present too, managing to steer five runners from ten into the places in the last week.

This is a wide-open contest, but I feel Greywell Boy will have what it takes today to give us a run and ultimately a return from our money. The current best price available is 11/2 BOG with bet365, so the call from me today is a 1 win pt bet at  11/2 BOG with them but as ever, please take the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.10 Warwick

Trainer Stats: 2nd Feb 2012

Jamie Osborne In Red-Hot Form

With the current cold snap it looks like it could be mostly AW action for the next few days - but we've got a flat handler that's red hot at present......... Read more

Trainer Stats: Thurs 26th Jan 2012

Williams A Hot Name At Present

It‘s simple this week – just look out for a trainer with the surname ‘Williams’ - Maybe Serena, Robbie and Venus should take up a licence! Read more

TV Trends: Sat 14th Jan 2012

Is 6 The Magic Number In The Lanzarote?

Did you know that a 6 year-old has won Saturday’s Lanzarote Hurdle 12 times since 1992? Andy Newton gives you all the trends that matter for the weekend’s LIVE C4 races....... Read more

Boxing Day TV Trends

Are You With Kauto or Long Run?

Did you know seven of the last 10 King George Chases went to the favourite? Andy Newton gives you all the stats that matter for the five LIVE Boxing Day races........ Read more

Cheltenham Trends – Friday

Andy Newton gives you all the key trends and stats ahead of the first day of the Cheltenham Open Meeting this Friday........ Read more