Tag Archive for: David Allan

Super six at York for Copper Knight

Copper Knight landed a sixth course success at York when taking the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap, the opening race of the four-day Welcome to Yorkshire Ebor Festival.

Tim Easterby’s seven-year-old showed blistering speed to spring an 18-1 surprise in the sprint over five and a half furlongs.

A winner over the five furlongs on this course in May, Copper Knight was quickly away from stall three on the far side and soon leading the pack under David Allan.

The Sir Prancealot gelding galloped home to record a 10th career success by three-quarters of a length from Live In The Moment. Hurricane Ivor was a neck away in third and Jawwaal a head back in fourth.

Easterby said: “He’s a wonderful horse. Dave said he’s not felt like that for a long time.

“He likes that good ground and just coasted along. He got a nice tow into it and it was brilliant to watch.

“I don’t train him really – he trains himself. He lobs away out the back, canters round and you don’t do anything fancy with him.

“He’s an absolute star and we’ll look at the Portland (at Doncaster) maybe.

“He was in on Saturday at Chester, but he won’t run there now – he’s earned his corn now.”

Arcadian Sunrise winning at York
Arcadian Sunrise winning at York (Nigel French/PA)

Irish raider Arcadian Sunrise delighted favourite backers with a last-to-first victory in the two-mile Sky Bet Handicap.

A narrow winner of a valuable handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival three weeks ago, John Queally’s 11-4 chance charged home under a typically patient ride from Jamie Spencer to get up and beat Rajinsky by a length and a quarter.

“He’s a good dual-purpose horse, and it worked out well,” said Queally.

“He won well in Galway, and initially I thought this might be a bit soon for him, but the very next morning he told us ‘we’re going to York’.

“This is a heavenly place, isn’t it? I had a horse placed in the Queen Alexandra when the Royal meeting was held at York, and it’s great to have a winner here.

“I honestly don’t know where we’ll go with him now, maybe the Irish Cesarewitch at the end of the year.”

The Declan Carroll-trained Tweet Tweet (7-1) notched her third win from four starts this year in the IRE Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Stakes, with Harrison Shaw the winning rider.

Carroll said: “Carrying that weight today (9st 7lb), that was a good performance.

“She’s all heart and is progressing well. She could make up into a nice filly next year.

“We could look at the Listed race at Doncaster (Scarborough Stakes), but a lot will depend on the ground – she needs fast ground.”

Flaming Rib (16-1) lunged late to land the concluding Sky Bet Nursery for trainer Tom Dascombe and 5lb claimer Pierre-Louis Jamin.

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.25 Bath : Tell William @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Close up, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on same pace) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good To Soft, ground worth £5,984 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells me that Tim Easterby is a trainer to follow in handicaps here at Chester with a 1 in 6 record backed blindly over the last three seasons prior to this one. My starting point for trainer/course angles is always last three seasons / 15%+ SR / AE of 1.25+ and IV of 1.50+.

Moreover, since the start of 2016, Tim's Chester handicappers sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 are 15 from 48 (31.25% SR) for 52.35pts (+109.1% ROI) at an A/E of 1.87 and an IV of 3.11, including of relevance today...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 32.3pts (+111.4%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 34.92pts (+129.3%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 26.25pts (+109.4%) at Class 4
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 33.18pts (+150.8%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 27.45pts (+130.7%) over 5 to 6 furlongs
  •  5/7 (71.4%) for 25.04pts (+357.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.28pts (+94.8%) for jockey David Allan
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 11.42pts (+142.7%) over this 5f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!