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O’Meara’s Firmament can prove Victoria Cup trend buster

We look forward to another ultra-competitive handicap this weekend, as Ascot plays host to the Victoria Cup.

A maximum field of 29 are expected to go to post for this valuable cavalry charge. The race has favoured four-year-olds in recent times, with six victories in the last 10. Five-year-olds also have a decent record, but it’s rare that any above this age strike gold. Weight carrying is often an issue in such handicaps, and this race is no different. Only two from the last 10 renewals has carried more than nine stone to victory. Of the first six home in last year’s race, all bar Zhui Feng carried less (he was right on the nine-stone mark).

Keyser Soze looks likely to start favourite. Trained in Newmarket by Richard Spencer, this four-year-old ran a cracker on his seasonal return at Newbury, when third in a similarly competitive 22-runner handicap. Slow out the gate that day, he found himself stuck at the back of the field for much of the race. He gradually carved his way through the pack and looked sure to win when bursting to the front less than a furlong from home. Though chinned late on, it’s hard to believe that he would not have won had he not had such a tardy start. It’s a concern that his only visit to Ascot was disappointing, when trailing home in last year’s Britannia Stakes. He also sits on that nine-stone threshold. Nevertheless, that Newbury run was eye-catching, and this fella looks progressive.

The six-year-old, Louie De Palma, is also towards the top of the market, despite having not been sighted on racecourse for almost four years. Off since a decent juvenile campaign, it would be an astounding piece of training should Clive Cox deliver him victorious in such a competitive event. Based on that two-year-old form, his handicap mark may well be generous, but backing this fella requires a monumental leap of faith from the punter.

The David Barron-trained Kynren has the right sort of profile for this. A progressive looking four-year-old, his seasonal return at Doncaster in the Spring Mile Handicap was full of promise. Third that day, despite a poor draw, he’d battled on bravely having been isolated on the stands-rail for the first half of the race. He’s set to carry 8-11, and though his pedigree suggests he may favour softer ground, he has proved his ability to handle a quicker surface. He could go close.

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Raising Sand is older than ideal at six, but his record at Ascot suggests another bold bid is likely. He’s twice a winner at the track and was placed third and fourth in his other pair of visits. He clearly performs well in these big-field events and his handicap mark (just 2lbs higher than last time) suggests he’ll go close again. He lacks a prep-run, which has proved a slight negative for this race. Nevertheless, he looks a serious contender.

Firmament would be another trend buster, but the David O’Meara-trained six-year-old is starting to look very well handicapped, and never disappoints at Ascot. He ran well off a mark of 109 throughout last year and is now down to 102. I can’t see this fella finishing out of the frame, yet he’s currently a 28/1 shot. He’s vulnerable to a young progressive sort, further down the handicap, but I’m convinced he’ll be in the shake-up.

Keyser Soze and Kynren fit the profile and look sure to go close. But I’ll be backing a pair each-way in the hope that they can become trend busters. The well-handicapped Firmament is the main bet. He loves the track, and in O’Meara and Tudhope, we have a potent combination for this type of race. I’ll also throw a few quid at Raising Sand, who also loves Ascot and remains on a fair handicap mark. Both are six-year-olds, hence vulnerable to a younger improver, but I’m convinced both will be in the mix.

Best of luck to those having a punt.

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2017

Monday's Result :

5.30 Towcester : Honey Pound @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 In rear, headway before 2 out, soon pushed along, one pace.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ronnie The Rooster3/1 BOG

Why?

A consistent type with finishes of 114322 in his last six outings and only narrowly outpaced and beaten in the last two, looking like he needed further. He gets an extra furlong today and that could be all it takes to get him back to wining ways, especially as...

...since 2012 in UK flat races over 7f to 1m4f, 3 to 5 yr olds who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out 6 to 30 days ago and had also finished in the top three two starts and three starts ago are 374/1772 (21.1% SR) for 391.1pts (+22.1% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 3 yr olds are 277/1278 (21.7%) for 316.4pts (+24.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 141/509 (27.7%) for 126.1pts (+24.8%)
  • those running in May are 56/259 (21.6%) for 276.3pts (+106.7%)
  • and those beaten by a head or shorter LTO are 29/103 (28.2%) for 61.8pts (+60%)

Ronnie The Rooster is also David Barron's only runner of the day, but since 2010, the yard's solo entrants have won 93 of 506 (18.4% SR) for 160.2pts (+31.7% ROI), and today's race conditions tell us that these 506 "lonely souls" are...

  • 75/400 (18.75%) for 164.7pts (+41.2%) as males
  • 52/314 (16.6%) for 128.2pts (+40.8%) on the Flat
  • 42/180 (23.3%) for 62.7pts (+34.8%) after a break of just 6 to 20 days
  • 32/131 (24.4%) for 154.5pts (+117.9%) at Class 5
  • 12/48 (25%) for 39.55pts (+82.4%)
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 37.7pts (+121.6%) here at Beverley

...and if all of the above hasn't quite convinced you, let me show you something else that should just tip the balance. A quick at today's racecard provides further clues for us, as clicking the pace tab tells us that this race suits horses who are very much up with the pace and then the draw tab tells us that horses drawn low should fare best.

It is, therefore, unsurprising that further down the page on the draw tab, the heat map shows a definite bias towards horses that like to be up with the pace and are drawn low. Our boy Ronnie The Rooster is drawn in stall 2 and is joint top of the average pace ratings based on his last four runs.

...which backs up...a 1pt win bet on Ronnie The Rooster3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.10pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2017

Monday's Result :

2.50 Stratford : Yorkist @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 Mid-division, headway when not fluent 8th, ridden to chase winner before last, no impression, stayed on same pace

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Logi5/1 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding due to be ridden by the in-form Phillip Makin, who despite an indifferent day (we all have them!) on Monday, still has 8 winners from 38 rides (21.1% SR) to his name over the last fortnight, whilst in just the past four days he has 5 winners and 4 placers from 17 for win and place strike rates of 29.4% and 52.9% respectively, so we appear to be in good hands.

Furthermore, his record here at Ayr since 2010 is very good with 51 winners from 321 (15.9% SR) attempts, recording level stakes profits of some 132.1pts (+41.2% ROI). Those P/L and ROI figures are admittedly somewhat skewed by a couple of longer-priced winners, but the strike rate remains impressive. And of relevance today from those 321 rides here in Western Scotland...

    • males are 41/256 (16%) for 114.6pts (+44.8%)
    • Class 4 to 6 runners are 42/229 (18.3%) for 87.7pts (+38.3%)
    • over this 6f trip : 14/92 (15.2%) for 63.6pts (+69.1%)
    • 3 yr olds are 13/61 (21.3%) for 90.5pts (+148.3%)

And if we take a closer look at Phillip's record at this venue for today's trainer, David Barron, we find that since 2009, the duo have shared 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) for 86.6pts (+298.5% ROI), including...

  • males at 6/22 (27.3%) for 85.1pts (+386.9%)
  • over 6f : 5/17 (29.4%) for 88.4pts (+519.8%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 4/10 (40%) for 8.2pts (+82%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 73pts (+810.8%)
  • and at Class 5 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.3pts (+176.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Logi5/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 5.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Treaty of Rome @ 5/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Tracked leaders, ridden to press leaders from over 1f out, driven to lead towards finish to win by a neck

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Wolverhampton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fast Track @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who has won once and placed on two other occasions from his three runs here at Wolverhampton with a win and a place from two cracks at this course and distance, both under today's jockey Philip Makin.

He's trained by David Barron, whose runners are 51/251 (20.3% SR) for 122.8pts (+48.9% ROI) here at Wolverhampton, inclduing the following of interest/relevance today...

  • over 5f to 8.5f : 44/221 (19.9%) for 123.1pts (+55.7%)
  • males are 46/192 (24%) for 159.9pts (+83.3%)
  • in handicaps : 35/182 (19.2%) for 71.9pts (39.5%)
  • on tapeta : 11/74 (14.9%) for 37pts (+50%)
  • 6 yr olds are 9/31 (29%) for 9.1pts (+29.3%)
  • and those ridden by Philip Makin are 9/30 (30%) for 15.4pts (+51.4%)

More generally the Barron / Makin / 5-6f sprinter angle is worth 54 winners from 244 (22.1% SR) for 138.4pts (+56.7% ROI) since the start of 2009, of which those running on the All-Weather are 23/73 (31.5%) for 36.9pts (+50.5%) with a record here at Wolverhampton of 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 18.44pts (+141.8%).

And finally, Fast Track is David's only runner of the day and since 2010, when represented by just one horse, he's had 93 winners from 501 (18.6% SR) for 165.2pts (+33% ROI), including...

  • males @ 75/395 (19%) for 169.7pts (+43%)
  • on the A/W : 41/188 (21.8%) for 36.1pts (+19.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 11/80 (13.75%) for 25.6pts (+32%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 19/78 (24.4%) for 70.2pts (+90%)
  • and those ridden by Philip Makin are 13/55 (23.6%) for 14pts (+25.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fast Track @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betway, Bet365, Hills & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Southwell : My Renaissance @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 7/4 Towards rear, headway to track leaders over 7f out, took keen hold, led over 4f out, headed 3f out, weakened final furlong.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.15 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was 3rd LTO in a race that probably came too soon after running the day before, but now after a rest of some 47 days, he's expected to go better and reproduce the kind of form that has seen him win twice here in the past, once over course and distance.

He's going be ridden by Jamie Spencer who has a long-term (ie since 2009) 18% strike rate at this venue, courtesy of winning 84 of his 468 races here and since the start of 2012, he is 10/52 (19.2% SR) for 24.7pts (+47.5% ROI) in handicaps over 6 to 7 furlongs on this track.

Trainer David Barron has his horses in fine fettle at present with 3 winners and 2 placers from 10 over the last week and the Barron/Spencer partnership is 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 22.6pts (+35.8% ROI) since 2010, including...

  • over 5f to 7f : 18/51 (35.3%) for 29.3pts (+57.4%)
  • in handicaps : 11/38 (29%) for 22.9pts (+60.4%)
  • in handicaps over 5f to 7f : 11/29 (37.9%) for 31.9pts (+110.1%)
  • at Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.34pts (+133.4%)
  • and on the A/W : 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.4pts (+66.9%)

Steelriver is also David's only runner of the day and since 2008, his solo entrants are 113/628 (18% SR) for 225.1pts (+35.9% ROI), with the folowing at play today...

  • over 5f to 7f : 84/456 (18.4%) for 191pts (+41.9%)
  • on the A/W  : 54/237 (22.8%) for 104.9pts (+44.3%)
  • on the A/W over 5f to 7f : 42/182 (23.1%) for 91.6pts (+50.3%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Spencer are 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.5pts (+75.1%)

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG which was available with both Betfred, Hills and Totesport at 5.30pm on Tuesday, with plenty of acceptable 7/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2016

Monday's Result :

5.35 Kempton: Dunraven Storm @ 13/2 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, ridden and clear before last, winning by 5 lengths).

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Catterick

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chilworth Bells at 100/30 BOG.

Why?

The horse... is 1 from 1 on soft ground and has a win and a third place from two starts under talented 5lb claimer Josephine Gordon.

The ground... shouldn't be an issue here, as David Barron's horses are 35/235 (14.9% SR) for 153pts (+65.4% ROI) on soft ground since the start of the 2010 campaign.

Type of race... again shouldn't be a problem, as the yard is 7/20 (35% SR) for 13.87pts (+69.4% ROI) in non-handicap races here at Catterick with runners priced at 12/1 or shorter over the last 6 seasons, whilst the last three years have produced 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) for 18.16pts (+201.8% ROI)

Chilworth Bells is also David's only runner at the track and also his only runner of the day. Since 2010, his solo track entrants are 147/802 (18.3% SR) for 184.7pts (+23.1% ROI), whilst those who were his only runners of the day are 84/435 (19.3% SR) for 135.7pts (+31.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Chilworth Bells at 100/30 BOG with any one of the eight firms quoting that price at 12.25am! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2016

Friday's Result :

4.30 Wolverhampton: Something Lucky @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In rear, headway over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

3.25 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Over the last three months, trainer David Barron's horses are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR), whilst today's jockey Graham Gibbons is 12 from 67 (17.9% SR) in the same time frame, also winning 5 times in 15 rides for Mr Barron.

This success as a partnership is no new flash in the pan, as since the start of 2010 in standard A/W conditions the duo have 39 wins from 171 (22.8% SR) for level stakes profits 0f 68.5pts (+40.1% ROI), and with today's race in mind, those 171 runners are...

  • 34/139 (24.5% SR) for 84.1pts (+60.5% ROI) from male runners
  • 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 48.4pts (+41.4% ROI) in handicaps
  • 23/92 (25% SR) for 50.1pts (+54.5% ROI) over trips of 5 & 6 furlongs
  • 5/29 (17.2% SR) for 25pts (+86.1% ROI) at Class 2

and male handicappers over 5 & 6 furlongs are 11/53 (20.8% SR) for 52.1pts (+98.3% ROI), with Class 2 races providing 4 winners from 18 (22.2% SR) for 32pts (+177.9% ROI).

Steelriver is also David's only runner at the track, but he does tend to pick up plenty of prize money from his solo entrants, with 143 winners from 787 (18.2% SR) such runners since the start of 2010 and a £10 bet on each of them would have made you £1804 profit at an ROI of 23% and these runners are...

  • 117/627 (18.7% SR) for 198.1pts (+31.7% ROI) as males
  • 99/571 (17.3% SR) for 131.2pts (+23% ROI) in handicaps
  • 108/568 (19% SR) for 138pts (+24.3% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 68/320 (21.3% SR) for 201pts (62.8% ROI) when ridden by Graham Gibbons

and those male handicappers ridden by Graham Gibbons over 5 to 7 furlongs are 23/126 (18.3% SR) for 78pts (+61.9% ROI) and of those 123 runners, those who were David's only runner anywhere that day were winners on 17 of 87 (19.5% SR) occasions rewarding backers with 70.2pts (+80.7% ROI) of level stakes profits.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver at 100/30 BOG with Hills, who are currently the standout price for this runner. There is, however plenty of 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere, as you'll see if you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2015

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2015

Monday's Result :

7.10 Wolverhampton : Hickster @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed towards finish and beaten by three quarters of a length.)

Another runner-up on Monday and a late post from me tonight, as I only got home from a weekend away at 11.30pm and it was at that point I realised there was racing today, I'd got my diary all mixed up!

Anyway, Tuesday's runner goes in the...

1.30 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Twin Appeal @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

1. Since the start of 2010, when trainer David Barron and jockey Graham Gibbons have teamed up over 5 to 7 furlongs on ground either softer than good or on A/W surface, they are 56/316 (17.7% SR) for 129.6pts (+41% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • males are 44/249 (17.7% SR) for 129.9pts (+52.2% ROI)
  • on the A/W, they are 26/121 (21.5% SR) for 56.7pts (+46.8% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/76 (18.4% SR) for 66pts (+86.8% ROI)
  • over 7f, they are 13/75 (17.3% SR) for 47.6pts (+63.4% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 15/58 (20.7% SR) for 71pts (+122.4% ROI)

2. Since 2008, David's class 3 to 6 handicappers making only their second handicap outing in a 90-day period are 44/246 (17.9% SR) for 106.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.2%, with all-weather runners winning 10 of 60 (16.7% SR) for 30.1pts (+50.1% ROI) and those competing over 7 furlongs recording 12 wins from 45 (26.7% SR) and 76.5pts (+170% ROI) profit.

3. Since the start of 2010, runners who are David's only representatives at that track on that day are 138/768 (18% SR) for 183.7pts (+24% ROI) profit with 7f runners winning 21 of 141 (14.9% SR) for 48.2pts (+34.2% ROI) and Class 3 races producing 20 winners from 122 (16.4% SR) and 67.3pts profit at an ROi of 55.1%.

4. And 402 of those 768 runners in point 3 were David's only runners of the day and he has managed 75 winners from the 402 (18.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 133.8pts (+33.3% ROI) with 7f races generating 13 winners from 79 (16.5% SR) for 51.7pts (+65.5% ROI) and his Class 3 horses have won 11 of 66 (16.7% SR) for 39.6pts (+60% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.10am is...

A 1pt win bet on Twin Appeal and that's at 7/2 BOG with Coral, but the same BOG price is available with 10Bet, Bet365 and Betfair, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2015

Hmmm, Thursday didn't quite go as well as I hoped it might, did it? Probably serves me right for the change in tack and as my old grandma (god bless) used to tell me..."Stick to what you know, lad!", I'll be reverting to a more familiar path today!

That said, Homage wasn't without friends in the market, being sent off at 7/1 and was favourite for a while, so I suspect we weren't the only ones with singed digits after he finished 14th of 18 and gave no run at all. We beat SP and 4 of our 17 rivals and that's as good as it got.

Back to "normal" racing today and an evening trip to the banks of the Clyde in South Lanarkshire for the...

7.25 Hamilton:

Which is a Class 3 handicap for 11 runners over a trip of 1m4f on soft ground and where I've backed Spes Nostra at 7/2 BOG, for although he's up 6lbs for a demolition job at Ripon last Friday, where he won by 12 lengths whilst easing right down, he's still technically 3lbs well in based on his future mark.

He's trained by David Barron, about whom today's race highlights several grounds for optimism as follows...

His record at Hamilton : Overall this reads 46/246 (18.7% SR) and since 2010 he is 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 36.77pts (+49.6% ROI) here.
His record on soft ground : Also since 2010, he has had 31 winners from 199 (15.6% SR) for profits of 153pts (+77.3% ROI)

Spes Nostra is his only runner on the Hamilton card and since 2008, whenever he's had just one runner at a track, that horse has managed to win 156 of 908 (17.2% SR) of the time, generating level stakes profits of 153pts at an ROI of 77.3%. (he has 3 at York and one at Newbury too).

When he's had just one runner at Hamilton, he's had 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) for 21pts (+116.5% ROI) and of the 908 sole runners above, the record at odds of 5/4 to 11/1 is 129/642 (20.1% SR) for 160pts (+25% ROI) profit.

Phillip Makin gets the leg up today and he has done well on the Barron string in the past, winning 65 times from 322 (20.2% SR) efforts since 2009 and narrowed down to the context of today's selection, he's 24/55 (43.6% SR) for 44.3pts (+80.5% ROI) on handicappers priced 15/8 to 4/1.

As for Spes Nostra, a 7/30 career record is decent as it stands, but closer analysis highlights his suitability here...
...he's finished 221 in 3 starts here at Hamilton,
...he has won on soft ground before,
...he's 1 from 1 at today's trip,
...in races of 5 to 11 runners, he is 7/21 (33.3% SR) for 19.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
...at odds of Evens to 8/1, he's 7/20 (35% SR) for 20.7pts (+103.5% ROI)
...in blinkers, he's 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15.2pts (+89.6% ROI) and, finally...
...running within 1 to 8 weeks of his last run, he's 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 17.7pts (+77.1% ROI).

That's more than enough to sway me and I'm on Spes Nostra at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 (I've got to spend that free Champions League money from midweek!), but the price is very widely available (8 bookies at last count), so take your pick by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.25 Hamilton

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Stat of the Day, 30th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2015

Like all of you reading this, I'm as perplexed as you can imagine by the sudden crop of runners falling short for us. For the second time in two days, we had one that looked to be travelling well that suddenly just emptied out and went backwards.

Everything pointed to a bold run from Blue Buttons, but we just didn't get a finish from him, as he folded tamely from 3 out, eventually finishing 4th at 3/1, beaten by 15 lengths.

Despite the recent cold run, I'd probably pick the same horses again, as they've been pretty straightforward logical choices with seemingly little left to chance. Perhaps a different tack is needed in Friday's...

7.15 Wolverhampton:

Where I've just placed a 7/2 BOG on what might seem a bit of a left field punt on Lucy Parsons, a lightly raced (just two starts) 4yr old filly who has been off the track for  days shy of 18 months. You're probably thinking I've lost the plot, but I assure you this isn't the case. Assuming she runs well after a lengthy break, there are some other stats to back the selection of a horse...

trained by David Barron...

...who has an excellent record here at Wolverhampton over the last 8 years, saddling up 42 winners from 192 runners and producing level stakes profits of 97.2pts at an ROI of 50.6% and in handicaps here at Dunstall Park, David's runners are 30/137 (21.9% SR) for 85.5pts (+62.4% ROI).

David is the sprint king...

...it's fairly well known that David has a good record with sprinters, especially over 5 furlongs. Since 2008, his runners at today's minimum trip have won 60 of 272 (22.1% SR) races, generating 235pts profit at an ROI of 86.7%. On the A/W those numbers are 26/111 (23.4% SR) for 59.3pts (+53.4% ROI), whilst here at Wolverhampton, his 5f runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 15.2pts (+72.6% ROI)

Graham Gibbons takes the ride this evening...

...and he's certainly no stranger to Wolverhampton or its winners' enclosure either. Since 2008, he's actually ridden here 1014 times and had you staked £10 on each of those runners, not only would you have been on 130 (12.8% SR) winners, you'd have made yourself just shy of £3,000 profit at an ROI of 29.5%.

If you'd stuck to handicaps only, you'd be looking at 96 winners from 747 (12.9% SR) and profits of almost £2350 (+31.4% ROI).

...he also rides David's horses well...

Since the start of 2010, Graham has ridden 133 winners for the yard from just 735 attempts with the resultant/excellent 18.1% strike rate generating some 308.9pts profits from 1 pt level stakes at an ROI of 42% and in handicap contests, the record for the combo is 82/502 (16.3% SR) for 169.5pts (+33.8% ROI).

Here at Wolverhampton, Graham has a 19/70 (27.1% SR) record on the Barron horses and these runners have produced 82.3pts (+117.6% ROI) profit with the handicappers winning 14 of 50 (28% SR) races here, making 65.8pts (+131.6% ROI) in the process.

The Gibbons/Barron combo with sprint (5/6f) handicappers have won 6 of 26 (27.3% SR) for 53.1pts (+241.5% ROI). 

Both Lucy Parsons' two runs to date have been over today's minimum trip, finishing 4th (but only beaten by two lengths) on debut at Ripon, before following up with a win by 2.5 lengths at nearby Thirsk a fortnight later. She beat quite a few subsequent winners in her brief racing career to date, but has been "in the shed" ever since.

She's taking a drop in class in what looks a poor race, if truth be told and although we're having to take her fitness on trust, I dare say she's been well prepared by David Barron during her absence and she'll benefit from being drawn in stall 1. The way she ran her two prior starts leaves me to think she might try to blast out and win the race from the front and if she can hold on, the adrenaline rush might just carry Lucy Parsons home.

She's not the obvious one to back here, but in a weak race full of runners with questions to answer, I'm happy to take 7/2 BOG about Lucy Parsons. I've gone with Bet365, purely because I had a free bet from them that needed using, but the same prices is available in a stack of other places, so you'd be advised to...

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Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2014

Saturday was the second day in a row that we'd finished runner-up aboard a Roger Varian handicap debutant and although we suffered a 2pt loss, there was enough to suggest both horses will be winning races in the not too distant future.

As for Saturday, Pretzel ran his own race really well, save for a little drifting across late on. He finished/stayed on well, but couldn't quite get to the leader who ran a blinder making all at 12/1 to remain unbeaten after three starts.

No disgrace endured at Newmarket and May remained very profitable, but today is a new day and a new month, so I'm hoping to get off the mark in style in the...

4.25 Leicester:

Where David Barron's Fieldgunner Kirkup is a solid 7/2 BOG to land the spoils now dropping down in class to contest this 7 furlong, Class 5 handicap on soft ground. Despite failing to win in any of his last 13 runs over a 14-month period, there are several reasons why today might just be his day.

1. David Barron's recent record at Leicester is very good with five winners from twelve in the last four seasons. This 41.7% strike rate has already generated 25.94pts profit at a rate of 216.2% ROI.

From those 12 runners, he's 4/8 for 19.3pts in handicaps and 3/6 for 7.53pts with handicappers priced below 5/1.

2. David Barron has a good reputation for getting his horses to perform on soft ground. Since the start of the 2010 season, his record on soft ground over trips of six to fourteen furlongs is 22 winners from 124 (17.7% SR) for 155.6pts (+125.4% ROI) profit.

The bulk (61.3%) of those runners competed over 6 and 7 furlongs, where the record reads 14/76 (18.4% SR) for 42.2pts (+55.5% ROI).

We can further refine the original subset of 124 soft ground runners with a simple odds filter with those running at below 10/1 ISP winning 15 of 67 races (22.4% SR) for 31.8pts (+47.5% ROI) profit with the sub-10/1,  6f & 7f runners having a record of 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 25.4pts (+65.1% ROI).

3. Graham Gibbons is in the saddle today and he has ridden this horse to victory on four occasions: the horse only has five wins to his name! Graham is 4/23 aboard a 5/37 horse, so he does seem to get a bit more out of him than the other jockeys have.

Graham also has a great record aboard Mr Barron's soft ground sprinters I just mentioned. From that 10/39 group of winners over 6f & 7f on soft ground below 10/1, Graham's record is 5/18 (27/8% ROI) for 17.1pts (+94.9% ROI).

4. Fieldgunner Kirkup is on a fairly lengthy losing run, but drops to Class 5 where he is 2 from 6, he has won three times at today's trip and he is proven on soft ground. He now runs off a mark of 74, some 8lbs lower than his last winning run, which brings me to David Barron's record with out of form horses running below their last winning mark.

From his horses on a losing streak of 5 or more races and running off a mark lower than their last win, he has a record of 15 winners from 102 runners (14.7% SR) for 31.84pts (+31.2% ROI) profit. From those 102 runners, 39 of them were sent off between 5/2 and 8/1 and 13 of the 39 (33.33% SR) were winners, generating 59.64pts (+152.9% ROI) profit.

From those 39 runners, the record of those running off mark of 3lbs to 10lbs lower than their last win is 10 winners from 21 (47.6% SR) for 52.7pts (+250.9% ROI) profit.

Fieldgunner Kirkup wasn't disgraced last time out, showing signs of a return to form as he finished 6th of 11 at Newcastle 13 days ago. That might not sound great, but there were plenty of mitigating factors at play that day. The good ground was too quick for him, the race was two classes higher than today and he ran off a mark 2lbs higher than he will today.

I think today is possibly the best chance he's had of winning for a long time as race conditions seem more suited to him than they have for a while, so for me, it's a 1pt win bet on Fieldgunner Kirkup at 7/2 BOG. I'm still using my SkyBet winnings from ast week, but 7/2 BOG is on offer in most places, as you'll see when you...

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Stat of the Day, 8th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2014

We had to settle for third place for the second successive day as 11/8 favourite (we got on at 4/1!) Thorpe Bay couldn't keep up with the post to post winner. Our selection tracked the leader, but had no extra when it mattered and even relinquished the runner-up spot in the closing stages, eventually going down by 2.5 lengths.

What I will take from this, is the satisfaction of getting 4/1 about an 11/8 shot and if we do this often enough, we will make decent long-term profits.

We'll return to the scene of this defeat and hope for better in the...

4.40 Wolverhampton:

Since the start of 2010, trainer David Barron's record in handicap races here at Wolverhampton stands at a very creditable 15 wins from 70 (21.4% SR) for 56pts (+80% ROI) profit.

David is also well-known for producing decent sprinters and his record over 5 and 6 furlongs on the All-Weather is very good indeed. Over the last five years, he has saddled up 36 winners from 136 horses sent off at 8/1 or under over 5-6f on the All-Weather. This 26.5% strike rate has so far yielded level stakes profits of 48.8pts or 35.9% of stakes, with the record at Wolverhampton reading 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 17.13pts (+59.1% ROI).

David has three runners at the track today, but only Hitchens runs at 6f or shorter and is therefore, my pick for today. This horse may not have won since August of last year, but his five defeats since then have been at Listed or Group 3 level and this Class 2 event signifies a major drop in class today.

In fact looking at his past form, I see that when he last won, that was a Listed race at Chester off 108 and yet he reappears here off just 102, which could well be very significant as...

...since the start of 2011, David Barron's horses who hadn't won for at least five races and were now racing at 8/1 or under off a lower mark than their last victory went on to win 13 of 50 races, a strike rate of 26% bringing about level stakes profits of 47.16pts, or 94.32% ROI.

On best form, Hitchens looks very well set to take this race and he has been running in far tougher assignments than this of late. He's a 10-times winner (from 42 starts) at this trip and he's 2 from 5 in this company. More interesting, though, is his excellent 5/19 record at Group 3 / Listed class, which should put him a cut above his rivals today.

At 10.30pm on Friday evening, the best I could get for you was 5/1 BOG, so it's a 1pt win for me at that price. I'm on with Bet365, but both Betfred & Coral are currently matching that price as you'll see when you...

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There's no SotD on Sundays, so I'll be back on Monday!

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2014

I rarely pass comment about the way a jockey rides on a losing selection, as it can seem like a case of sour grapes, but I'm fairly convinced that Matraash would have had more of a chance yesterday, if ridden differently.

He stayed on strongly and was doing all his best work at the finish, but was still beaten by just over 5 lengths back in 5th of 7 runners. Our 11/4 shot was backed in to become the 2/1 favourite, yet he looked anything but, as he was inexplicably held too far back approaching the turn for home.

He raced wide around the bend and had far too much to do, meaning the race was already lost with a quarter of it still to run.

We're staying at "Leafy" today for another crack at getting back amongst the winners in the...

1.45 Lingfield:

Where I've taken 9/2 BOG with Hills about David Barron's Tarooq.

Tarooq won over course and distance last time out and is now 2/2 over C&D. His complete record at Lingfield (A/W) reads 12521131 and he was won a total of 9 times from just 20 starts on A/W tracks to date, whilst holding a record of 4/4 over 6f on the A/W.

His trainer David Barron has saddled up 10 winners from 35 (28.6% SR) here at Lingfield over the last 5 years recording level stakes profits of 36.9pts (+105.4% ROI).

Graeme Gibbons takes the ride again today, just as he did for Tarooq's last run, when they not only won over course and distance, they also broke the track record for this trip. He is up in class, but there is an old school of thought that if you're quicker then the rest, you'll still win, provided you've not too much weight to carry. That said, he's up 5lbs for that last run, which I actually think is still quite fair.

Graeme Gibbons has a good record on David Barron's sprinters. Over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs on any ground officially worse than good or on the all-weather, he has won 38 of 208 races (18.3% SR) for 93.5pts (+44.95% ROI) profit from all runs. That record is 17/78 (21.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+56.2% RO) on the all-weather alone.

Those stats are, of course, lifetime figures and more relevantly the last four years show Graeme's record on the Barron sprinters as 37/196 (18.9% SR) for 98.05pts (+50%  ROI) and an A/W record of 17/74 (23% SR) for 47.9pts (+64.7% ROI), which pretty much tie in with the career stats.

So, in short, we've got a horse that thrives on the A/W and goes particularly well over track and trip. The horse holds the course record over today's trip and his trainer has a good record here overall. His jockey rode him to victory LTO and he also has a good record on the yard's sprinters.

There's enough there to suggest Tarooq will be competitive and he holds several of today's rivals on past form. Those rivals aren't well drawn here either, whilst we get to run from stall 2, which could allow Tarooq to dictate affairs. He'll be difficult to beat if he holds control of the race and looks decent enough value at 9/2 BOG today.

I've gone with Hills for this one, but that price is quite widely available, as can be seen if you...

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Trainer Stats: 12th Aug 2013

John-Gosden-2011_2585663

Gosden Fired In Newmarket Treble....

Andy Newton's updated his trainers to follow list this week - See which yards have made the grade this week...... Read more

Trainer Stats: 5th Aug 2013

James-Fanshawe-001Andy Newton's got six stables to look out for this week in his regular 'Hot Trainers' feature.... Read more