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Early NH Season, Part 2

A few weeks ago, my last article focused on National Hunt trainers who fly out of the gates in the autumn, writes Jon Shenton.   When compiling data and researching angles for that edition there were a few other areas of interest which I’d like to touch on today.

A key aspect that was considered for the aforementioned piece was evaluating where trainers had a runner returning to the track after an absence of more than 180 days, or about 6 months.  The thinking is that some trainers will have horses wound up and ready to go after a summer absence, while others’ animals generally come on for a run, taking a long-term view of the season ahead.

The below graph shows the total volume of runners returning to the track after a layoff of that magnitude.  Clearly, now is a good time to dive into which trainers are ready to go or otherwise.  As can be seen, we are in peak season for long absence returners.

Graph illustrating number of horses returning to the track after a break of 181+ days, since 2010, by month

 

Bargepoles and Scary data

My general approach is to always try and provide a few pointers to find a reasonable return over the medium to long term.  However, there is definite value in identifying horses through which to strike a line: data for those inclined to lay in other words.

The first stop is what I’d uncharitably term a ‘bargepole list’. The table below comprises of trainer records in terms of horses making a reappearance after more than 180 days off the track.  50 runs is the minimum level for inclusion and I have sorted in reverse A/E, accounting for all runs from the start of 2010 onwards.

 

Trainer performance for all runners from 2010 where the horse last ran 181+ days previously

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Jewell, Mrs L C 51 0 0.0 -51.0 5.9 -100.0 0
Menzies, Rebecca 52 0 0.0 -52.0 11.5 -100.0 0
Young, Mrs L J 62 0 0.0 -62.0 11.3 -100.0 0
Carroll, A W 81 1 1.2 -72.0 11.1 -88.9 0.17
Stephens, Robert 56 1 1.8 -39.0 17.9 -69.6 0.24
Newton-Smith, A M 51 1 2.0 -40.0 11.8 -78.4 0.25
Dennis, David 73 2 2.7 -61.8 12.3 -84.7 0.3
Wintle, A 57 1 1.8 -48.0 10.5 -84.2 0.31
Brennan, F J 55 1 1.8 -26.0 10.9 -47.3 0.34
Henderson, P 79 2 2.5 -63.0 12.7 -79.8 0.37
Dyson, Miss C 99 2 2.0 -71.0 9.1 -71.7 0.37
Easterby, T D 62 3 4.8 -36.3 22.6 -58.5 0.37
Thompson, V 53 1 1.9 -44.0 11.3 -83.0 0.38
Davison, Miss Z C 57 1 1.8 -36.0 10.5 -63.2 0.41
Normile, Mrs L B 67 1 1.5 -54.0 9.0 -80.6 0.43
Goldie, J S 68 3 4.4 -42.0 19.1 -61.8 0.44
Candlish, Jennie 129 5 3.9 -90.5 22.5 -70.2 0.47
Frost, J D 76 2 2.6 -37.0 7.9 -48.7 0.47
Bewley, G T 62 3 4.8 -42.8 27.4 -69.0 0.49

 

That’s a combined 30 wins from 1290 attempts with a A/E performance on average of 0.30.  Ordinarily I’d like to keep table data to a top 10 or so, but in this case, it felt a bit like a civic duty to share it all!

It goes without saying that if you’re backing a runner from these stables under these conditions that you need a very compelling reason to argue against the data. Obviously, it doesn’t mean that they can’t win – and horse can win any race – and, as ever, sample sizes are sub-optimal. Treating all of these stable runners with caution under these circumstances is advised.

The yards contained on the bargepole list are generally of the small/mid-range in terms of size.  Of greater interest may be to evaluate some of the household names of the game with the same conditions applied.  The table below contains larger outfits (100+ runs and not included in the first list above).  All have A/E rates of 0.8 or lower for horses where they are absent from competitive racing beyond the 180 days limit.

 

Trainer performance for all runners since 2010 where the horse last ran over 180 days previously (min. 100 runs at A/E less than 0.8)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Gordon, C 110 5 4.6 -48.1 18.2 -43.8 0.51
Webber, P R 188 8 4.3 -104.5 17.6 -55.6 0.51
Keighley, M 145 9 6.2 -61.6 22.1 -42.5 0.51
Dobbin, Mrs R 127 7 5.5 -83.0 21.3 -65.4 0.58
Williams, Ian 180 13 7.2 -72.5 25.0 -40.3 0.59
Hammond, Micky 110 5 4.6 -75.2 14.6 -68.3 0.59
Smith, Mrs S J 308 24 7.8 -104.2 26.3 -33.8 0.65
Russell, Lucinda V 332 27 8.1 -147.5 27.4 -44.4 0.66
Richards, N G 220 24 10.9 -68.5 35.0 -31.2 0.67
Hill, Lawney 120 10 8.3 -41.1 24.2 -34.3 0.67
Down, C J 106 4 3.8 3.5 17.9 3.3 0.67
Case, B I 102 6 5.9 -34.2 22.6 -33.5 0.7
Phillips, R T 115 5 4.4 -53.0 19.1 -46.1 0.71
Wade, J 166 10 6.0 -76.3 22.9 -45.9 0.72
Alexander, N W 169 12 7.1 -84.1 20.1 -49.7 0.73
Greatrex, W J 250 40 16.0 -106.7 37.2 -42.7 0.73
Wadham, Mrs L 118 13 11.0 -6.3 31.4 -5.3 0.74
Jefferson, J M* 163 20 12.3 -63.5 33.7 -39.0 0.75
Mullins, J W 175 11 6.3 -70.5 19.4 -40.3 0.76
Bailey, Caroline 100 7 7.0 -34.8 22.0 -34.8 0.77
Moore, G L 317 32 10.1 -144.1 24.6 -45.5 0.79
Dickin, R 116 7 6.0 -41.3 17.2 -35.6 0.79

*J M Jefferson yard now overseen by daughter, Ruth. It remains to be seen whether she adopts the same patient approach

 

A lot of these are undoubtedly considered elite level exponents of the training game.  They all will have short priced horses making their seasonal reappearance right about now.   Across the board the win strike rate is a moderate 8%.

On a personal level, awareness of this data has resulted in a modification of my betting habits over the last few weeks.  Sure, sometimes using intel such as this will leave you kicking yourself as you leave a winner out but it’s all about getting a few more right than wrong in the long-term.

 

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Winter Sunshine

Enough with the negativity. Let’s find a few rays of winter sunshine. Using the same 180 days off the track criteria with the addition of only considering runners at an SP of 20/1 or less (to prevent one or two big winners skewing the data) I’ve curated the following, more optimistic, data set.  This time I’ve sorted by ROI: bottom line profit is the ultimate goal after all. To qualify for the winter sunshine list at least 50 runs are required, a minimum of a 10% ROI at SP and a minimum of a 10%-win rate.

 

Trainer performance for all runners since 2010, 180+ days layoff, SP 20/1 or shorter

Trainers Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Bridgwater, D G 98 21 21.4 53.7 41.8 54.8 1.47
Easterby, M W 51 11 21.6 24.9 35.3 48.8 1.65
Hales, A M 74 12 16.2 34.0 35.1 46.0 1.42
Pauling, Ben 100 25 25.0 37.6 45.0 37.6 1.24
Honeyball, A J 119 26 21.9 41.2 43.7 34.6 1.14
Walford, Robert 59 10 17.0 18.9 30.5 32.0 1.33
Scott, J 118 20 17.0 30.4 39.8 25.8 1.23
Symonds, Tom 64 10 15.6 13.6 43.8 21.2 1.09
Williams, Evan 339 60 17.7 64.0 39.2 18.9 1.07
Scudamore, M J 74 11 14.9 13.3 35.1 17.9 1.27
Leech, Mrs S 74 10 13.5 12.8 27.0 17.2 1.14
OBrien, Fergal 189 38 20.1 29.7 42.3 15.7 1.12
Dartnall, V R A 119 19 16.0 15.8 40.3 13.2 1.09

 

A much more interesting set of results for backers, all pretty positive and all worth further investigation.  As usual it’d be remiss not to have a quick dive into the most profitable on the list, in this case the Cotswolds-based trainer, David Bridgwater.

 

David Bridgwater runners after a break of 180+ days, SP 20/1 or shorter by year

Year Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
ALL 98 21 21.4 53.7 41.8 54.8 1.47
2018 7 2 28.6 19.0 71.4 271.4 2.41
2017 3 1 33.3 2.0 66.7 66.7 1.18
2016 13 1 7.7 -7.0 23.1 -53.9 0.71
2015 25 8 32.0 15.0 44.0 59.9 1.65
2014 15 2 13.3 0.5 40.0 3.3 1
2013 20 3 15.0 20.0 35.0 100.0 1.4
2012 6 1 16.7 -2.0 16.7 -33.3 1.23
2011 6 2 33.3 5.8 66.7 95.8 2.27
2010 3 1 33.3 0.5 66.7 16.7 1.89

 

Judged on this criterion, “Bridgie” has clearly peaked between 2013-2015 in terms of volume. However, he still appears to get his horses primed after a layoff these days, just in lower numbers.   Perhaps the increased activity during the peak years were as a result of his stable star The Giant Bolster finishing 2nd, 4th and 3rd in consecutive Gold Cup’s at Prestbury Park, thus raising the profile of the operation.  Delving slightly deeper into the data the performance is strong in the rank and file classes of NH racing (4 and 5), with 19 winners from 70 runs, ROI of 106% at SP. That’s probably an angle to keep in the back of your mind I suspect, rather than to follow blindly.

Picking another yard in a semi-random way (as I have an affinity for them) let’s check the Ben Pauling outfit. Willoughby Court signalled a change in fortunes with regard to my woeful Cheltenham Festival record back in 2017 and I’ve been following them ever since that momentous occasion.  The expanding yard is coming off the back of its most successful season and is clearly going in the right direction.

The beauty (or one of them) of evaluating data such as this is that it can act as a gateway into a deeper understanding of a trainer, generating a different angle or view to what was initially expected.  Let me illustrate:

Pauling’s 25 wins from 100 with a 37% ROI looks overwhelmingly positive (and it is), however, here is the breakdown by month 

Ben Pauling runners with 180+ off the track at SP of 20/1 or shorter by month

Month Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
January 4 1 25.0 9.0 50.0 225.0 2.08
February 4 0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -100.0 0
May 5 2 40.0 -1.0 40.0 -20.0 1.3
June 3 0 0.0 -3.0 66.7 -100.0 0
July 1 0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -100.0 0
October 20 1 5.0 -14.0 35.0 -70.0 0.27
November 46 13 28.3 11.2 50.0 24.4 1.31
December 17 8 47.1 40.4 52.9 237.5 2.31

 

Look at October in relation to November and December.  They are pretty powerful numbers (small sample small-print applies).  In fact, they’re so powerful I have the strong inclination to check all of Pauling’s runners, irrespective of whether they’ve had over 180 days rest or not.  The graph below shows the split of profit and loss by month for all of the stable’s runners at 20/1 or shorter.

 

Ben Pauling P&L performance by month for all NH runners at 20/1 or shorter from 2010 onwards

 

The first thing to say is that the trend from the 180+ data is very much a representation of the whole yard’s performance.  Backing every Pauling entry during November and December appears to be a very promising area in which to potentially invest the kid’s university funds.  The whole stable appears to go into overdrive as we get towards the dying embers of the calendar year.

As a final and potentially arbitrary step, the Pauling record in Nov/Dec with fillies and mares is very poor with just one win from 28 runs.   Checking the overall year-round performance with the fairer sex there have been a skinny 5 wins from 68 runs, losing over 70% of funds invested.  As a result, I’ll happily exclude fillies and mares from the angle: training these has unique and different challenges, so exclusion can, I feel, be justified. That leaves the overall angle performance as per the table below.

 

Ben Pauling November/December male runners by year with, SP of 20/1 or shorter

Year Runs Wins Win% P/L (SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
ALL 205 56 27.3 104.7 46.8 51.1 1.35
2018 5 1 20.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 1.75
2017 72 18 25.0 14.2 47.2 19.7 1.17
2016 56 13 23.2 2.1 41.1 3.8 1.17
2015 36 15 41.7 54.3 52.8 150.8 1.72
2014 31 8 25.8 35.1 51.6 113.3 1.57
2013 5 1 20.0 -1.0 40.0 -20.0 1.56

 

In summary, backing Pauling male runners in November and December at 20/1 or shorter returns 51% to SP with a healthy strike rate of over 27%.  Maybe the market is catching up and pickings have certainly been slimmer over the past year or two.   Having said that, the yard is definitely still one to keep close to your thoughts as soon as we move into November.

Another trainer from the Winter Sunshine list, this time entirely based on volume, is Evan Williams.  The Vale of Glamorgan handler has delivered 50+ National Hunt winners every year since 2010 and is on track to do so again in 2018.

There is little doubt that this is an operation that gear themselves to getting horses out fresh and ready in October and November.   Using the P&L graph again, below is the distribution.

Evan Williams P&L performance by month for all runners 180+ days off the track, 20/1 or shorter, since 2010

 

A nice profit has been gleaned in the focus months; unlike Pauling, however, there are other potential periods of interest. Also, whilst the Pauling yard is historically flying with all runners in months 10 and 11 there is a clear distinction in Williams’ stable between fresh and already active animals.

 

Evan Williams Oct & Nov runners by month from 2010 by days since last run, SP 20/1 or shorter

Days since LR Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) ROI
180 days or less 456 78 17.1% -84.0 -18.4
181 days or more 190 45 23.7% 84.4 44.4

 

As a result, we only want to consider the fresh horses from the yard, even though performance for the other horses is far from terrible.

If we want to sharpen up further, the trainer hasn’t had a victorious horse at odds of greater than 16/1 from 11 runs in this dataset.  There might be a big one out there though, as always, it’s personal choice in terms of appetite for risk and reward.

In summary, backing all Williams charges with over 180 days off the track in Oct/Nov at 16/1 or less would yield 53% at SP, delivering £95 profit from a £1 level stake.

I’m fully aware that October is in the rear-view mirror in 2018.  However, this year the stable was exceptionally quiet during the month in terms of qualifiers, finishing with a record of 0/5.  My guess would be that the exceptionally dry summer and autumn may be pushing this (and other) yard’s general routines back a few weeks, patiently waiting for winter ground.  If that is the case, then Team Williams may burst into life as the squad start hitting the course over the next few weeks.

Obviously, it doesn’t always work like that, it’s just part of the evolving punting puzzle that we all know and love.

Good luck!

 - Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Lunar Deity @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Raced keen, tracked leaders, effort 2f out, one pace final furlong)

Monday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

David Bridgwater's NH runners on heavy ground have been very successful over the last couple of years and since the start of 2014, their record amounts to 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) and whilst the level stakes profits of 6.63pts represent a modest ROI of 11.4%, profit is profit and it also provides a good starting point for drilling down into the numbers.

The following ten angles from those 58 runners are all profitable and relevant today, so here goes...

  • males are 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 8.3pts (+15.3% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-10 or more are 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 21.6pts (+50.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 15.9pts (+42.8% ROI)
  • chasers are 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 14.1pts (+42.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 10/31 (32.3% SR) for 25.1pts (+81% ROI)
  • those whose last run was more than 20 days ago (but less than year!) are 9/29 (31% SR) for 20.8pts (+71.8% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 80 to 110 are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 15.8pts (+83.4% ROI)
  • those ridden by Jake Hodson are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 2.2pts (+11.6% ROI)
  • those wearing cheekpieces are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 3.38pts (+37.5% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 4/8 (50% SR) for 11.9pts (+148.8% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Bawden Rocks at 11/4 BOG, a price available with over a dozen firms at 9.45pm, so to see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Lunar Deity @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Raced keen, tracked leaders, effort 2f out, one pace final furlong)

Monday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

David Bridgwater's NH runners on heavy ground have been very successful over the last couple of years and since the start of 2014, their record amounts to 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) and whilst the level stakes profits of 6.63pts represent a modest ROI of 11.4%, profit is profit and it also provides a good starting point for drilling down into the numbers.

The following ten angles from those 58 runners are all profitable and relevant today, so here goes...

  • males are 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 8.3pts (+15.3% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-10 or more are 14/43 (32.6% SR) for 21.6pts (+50.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 15.9pts (+42.8% ROI)
  • chasers are 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 14.1pts (+42.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 10/31 (32.3% SR) for 25.1pts (+81% ROI)
  • those whose last run was more than 20 days ago (but less than year!) are 9/29 (31% SR) for 20.8pts (+71.8% ROI)
  • those rated (OR) 80 to 110 are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 15.8pts (+83.4% ROI)
  • those ridden by Jake Hodson are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 2.2pts (+11.6% ROI)
  • those wearing cheekpieces are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 3.38pts (+37.5% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds are 4/8 (50% SR) for 11.9pts (+148.8% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Bawden Rocks at 11/4 BOG, a price available with over a dozen firms at 9.45pm, so to see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2016

Monday's Result :

4.00 Wolverhampton : Little Stampy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, ridden and ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

2.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Intrigue @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

The trainer : David Bridgwater...

Over the last two years on heavy ground, his NH runners are 14 from 49 (28.6% SR) for 15.6pts at an ROI of 31.9% and depite that being a fairly small sample size, I've found a dozen profitable angles that all apply here...

  1.  males are 13/44 (29.6% SR) for 18.3pts (+41.5% ROI)
  2. those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 14/34 (41.2% SR) for 30.6pts (+90.1% ROI)
  3. Class 4 & 5 runners are 11/34 (32.4% SR) for 9.09pts (+26.7% ROI)
  4. handicappers are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 23.9pts (+82.2% ROI)
  5. chasers are 11/25 (44% SR) for 22.1pts (+88.4% ROI)
  6. 7 to 10 yr olds are 11/21 (52.4% SR) for 34.8pts (+165.6% ROI)
  7. those rated (OR) 80 to 115 are 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 19.7pts (+103.6% ROI)
  8. those ridden by Tom Scudamore are 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 18.5pts (+115.6% ROI)
  9. those who last raced 45 to 365 days ago are 6/9 (66.7% SR) for 27.5pts (+305% ROI)
  10. 9 yr olds are 4/5 (80% SR) for 12.04pts (+240.8% ROI)
  11. LTO winners are 3/5 (60% SR) for 1.89pts (+37.7% ROI)
  12. those who won by 4 to 15 lengths LTO are 3/3 (100% SR) for 3.89pts (+129.5% ROI)

And the jockey Tom Scudamore...

...is 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 71pts (+177.5% ROI) her at Ludlow over the last four years and of those 40 rides, he is...

  • 8/24 (33.33% SR) for 40.6pts (+169.1% ROI) at Classes 4 & 5
  • 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 12.7pts (+66.7% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 3/5 (60% SR) for 2.7pts (+54% ROI) on heavy ground

Which brings us to Celtic Intrigue...

...a horse, who had a career record of 0 from 12 under Tom George : a trainer of undoubted talent, but just couldn't the best from this one. The horse took a break from racing, moved to David Bridgwater and has won all three of his races since. All three were handicap chases, ridden by Tom Scudamore. He's 2 from 2 at today's trip and coming off a break of 177 days shouldn't be an issue, as he won on his yard debut despite not racing for 723 days!

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.50pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Celtic Intrigue and that's at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, whilst Betway offer the same, but are non-BOG until morning with a minimum stake of £10. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD : Monday 23/02/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2015

Mister Rockandroll did nothing wrong on Saturday and virtually made all until basically running out of steam inside the final furlong.

He was weakening and wandering off a true line when the eventual winner cam up his inside and although Joe Fanning did his level best to get our runner back up again, we had to settle for second best.

The final margin of defeat was three parts of a length and Mister Rockandroll was sent off at 7/2, half a point shorter than advised.

Monday kicks off a new week with a crack at the...

2.35 Plumpton:

And a 9/4 BOG wager on Tom Scudamore's ride, in this Class 4 handicap chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground, Nomadic Storm, a fairly lightly raced 9 yr old...

...who is trained by David Bridgwater...

...whose record over the last few years is excellent here at Plumpton. Since the start of 2011, 10 of his 43 runners (23.3% SR) at this track have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 6.9pts at a reasonable ROI of 16.1%. His runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+46.6% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8.25 (32% SR) for 145pts (+58.2% ROI).

His runners in handicap chases have won an impressive 8 of 19 (42.1% SR) producing 20.5pts (+108.1% ROI) profit with those chasers priced at 9/2 or shorter winning 7 of 13 (53.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+80.% ROI) with a 2/4 for 1.72pts record on heavy ground.

...and David's horses seem to like the mud...

Since the start of 2014, David's heavy ground runners are 10/37 (27% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit, with his chasers accounting for most of the success, winning 8 of 20 races (40% SR) and making 16.5pts (+82.5% ROI) profit in the process.

Of the chasers on heavy ground, David's go-to jockey of late has been Tom Scudamore, who had ridden 5 winners from 7 Bridgwater heavy ground chasers for an impressive strike rate of 71.4% with commensurate profits of 20.8pts at an ROI of 297.1%!

Tom does tend to do well on David's horses, though...

...riding 39 winners from 188 attempts (20.7% SR) for 93.9pts (+49.9% ROI) profit. In handicap chases, those figures become 24/92 (26.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+54.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 19 of 60 (31.7% SR) for 21.5pts (+35.8% ROI)

..and he has a good record here at Plumpton...

with 26 wins from 95 (27.4% SR) since the start of 2010 producing profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 37.6%. Handicap chasers account for 10 wins from 26 (38.5% SR) and 11.7pts of the profit (+45.1% ROI).

13 of those chasers have, of course, been trained by David Bridgwater and Tom has 6 winners (46.2% SR) from them and 7.3pts (+56.1% ROI) profit and on those priced at 9/2 or shorter, the record is 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 9.3pts (+84.5% ROI).

For his part, Nomadic Storm was unplaced in 2 bumpers and five hurdle races for Graeme McPherson, before switching to the Bridgwater yard 10 months ago. David immediately decided he'd be a chaser and all five starts for his new yard have been over fences with finishes of 31213 revitalising this horse.

So, he's now 2/5 over fences (all ridden by Mr Scudamore) and that includes a 1/1 record on heavy ground. He has won over 2m and 2m 0.5f and was third on his only effort over today's 2m1f, but that was his chasing debut here over course and distance, so I'm not expecting track trip or conditions to be unsuitable today.

There might be doubts about him returning from a break of 259 days, though, and this is probably why he's not even shorter than 9/4 BOG. There is some comfort though, to those of you who might have some reservations about an 8.5 month absence, as it's not unusual for this yard to win with returners.

In fact, since 2010, David Bridgwater's record with chasers coming off the back of a break of 6 months or more is 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+123% ROI) profit with an 8/24 (33.3% SR) record from those priced 10/1 or shorter, generating 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 105.4%.

Nomadic Storm is by no mean a shoo-in, but the deluge of stats supporting his case suggests that there could well be some value in a 1pt win bet at 9/4 BOG. This price is widely available and I've placed mine with Bet365, but you can see all the various odds when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2015

Mister Rockandroll did nothing wrong on Saturday and virtually made all until basically running out of steam inside the final furlong.

He was weakening and wandering off a true line when the eventual winner cam up his inside and although Joe Fanning did his level best to get our runner back up again, we had to settle for second best.

The final margin of defeat was three parts of a length and Mister Rockandroll was sent off at 7/2, half a point shorter than advised.

Monday kicks off a new week with a crack at the...

2.35 Plumpton:

And a 9/4 BOG wager on Tom Scudamore's ride, in this Class 4 handicap chase over 2m 1f on heavy ground, Nomadic Storm, a fairly lightly raced 9 yr old...

...who is trained by David Bridgwater...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...whose record over the last few years is excellent here at Plumpton. Since the start of 2011, 10 of his 43 runners (23.3% SR) at this track have been winners, generating level stakes profits of 6.9pts at a reasonable ROI of 16.1%. His runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+46.6% ROI), whilst his handicappers are 8.25 (32% SR) for 145pts (+58.2% ROI).

His runners in handicap chases have won an impressive 8 of 19 (42.1% SR) producing 20.5pts (+108.1% ROI) profit with those chasers priced at 9/2 or shorter winning 7 of 13 (53.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+80.% ROI) with a 2/4 for 1.72pts record on heavy ground.

...and David's horses seem to like the mud...

Since the start of 2014, David's heavy ground runners are 10/37 (27% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit, with his chasers accounting for most of the success, winning 8 of 20 races (40% SR) and making 16.5pts (+82.5% ROI) profit in the process.

Of the chasers on heavy ground, David's go-to jockey of late has been Tom Scudamore, who had ridden 5 winners from 7 Bridgwater heavy ground chasers for an impressive strike rate of 71.4% with commensurate profits of 20.8pts at an ROI of 297.1%!

Tom does tend to do well on David's horses, though...

...riding 39 winners from 188 attempts (20.7% SR) for 93.9pts (+49.9% ROI) profit. In handicap chases, those figures become 24/92 (26.1% SR) for 50.5pts (+54.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 19 of 60 (31.7% SR) for 21.5pts (+35.8% ROI)

..and he has a good record here at Plumpton...

with 26 wins from 95 (27.4% SR) since the start of 2010 producing profits of 35.7pts at an ROI of 37.6%. Handicap chasers account for 10 wins from 26 (38.5% SR) and 11.7pts of the profit (+45.1% ROI).

13 of those chasers have, of course, been trained by David Bridgwater and Tom has 6 winners (46.2% SR) from them and 7.3pts (+56.1% ROI) profit and on those priced at 9/2 or shorter, the record is 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 9.3pts (+84.5% ROI).

For his part, Nomadic Storm was unplaced in 2 bumpers and five hurdle races for Graeme McPherson, before switching to the Bridgwater yard 10 months ago. David immediately decided he'd be a chaser and all five starts for his new yard have been over fences with finishes of 31213 revitalising this horse.

So, he's now 2/5 over fences (all ridden by Mr Scudamore) and that includes a 1/1 record on heavy ground. He has won over 2m and 2m 0.5f and was third on his only effort over today's 2m1f, but that was his chasing debut here over course and distance, so I'm not expecting track trip or conditions to be unsuitable today.

There might be doubts about him returning from a break of 259 days, though, and this is probably why he's not even shorter than 9/4 BOG. There is some comfort though, to those of you who might have some reservations about an 8.5 month absence, as it's not unusual for this yard to win with returners.

In fact, since 2010, David Bridgwater's record with chasers coming off the back of a break of 6 months or more is 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+123% ROI) profit with an 8/24 (33.3% SR) record from those priced 10/1 or shorter, generating 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 105.4%.

Nomadic Storm is by no mean a shoo-in, but the deluge of stats supporting his case suggests that there could well be some value in a 1pt win bet at 9/4 BOG. This price is widely available and I've placed mine with Bet365, but you can see all the various odds when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2013

Monbeg was terribly disappointing on Tuesday afternoon and never really featured in the race at all. He was in the rear throughout and began to struggle quite a long way from home and was left a long way behind the others.

Although he plugged on to complete the race, he finished a good 55 lengths or so off the winner, as he trailed home last of the 6 runners to finish, despite being sent off as the 3/1 favourite.

More chasing action for Wednesday as we aim our sights at the...

2.40 Ludlow

Where the selection is Oscar Hill, currently available at 5/2 with BetVictor and is trainer David Bridgwater's only runner of the day.

David Bridgwater is one of a small group of trainers that you can back blindly in handicap races and still make a profit. His best returns of late have come in handicap chases like this one if you had backed all his handicap chasers in the last three years that were sent off at 8/1 or under, you have made a tidy profit from your investments.

In fact, he has saddled up 22 winners from 75 handicap chasers in that timeframe, which is a fantastic 29.33% strike rate and has generated 40.9pts profits to level stakes, a return on investment of 54.5%.

Oscar Hill is still unexposed over fences and comes here on the back of an easy win at Exeter last time out. He made all that day and although he was left in the lead as his nearest rival fell 2 from out, he did look like he was going to win comfortably anyway.

As it happens, he got home by some 18 lengths easing down and the manner of that performance would suggest he'll cope with a 7lb penalty to double up here. A slight drop back in trip won't do his chances any harm either.

There is a good chance that he'll attract money and go off as favourite for this one, but favourites in handicap races at Ludlow do better than expected with 24 winners from 72 (33.33% SR) in the last two years producing 15.9pts (+22.1% ROI) profit. Favourites in handicap chases have a 35% strike rate (15/40) in that same time period and have generated level stakes profits of 12.6pts, equivalent to 31.5% of stakes.

5/2 is getting towards the bottom end of the odds range for SotD, but I still think there could be some value in that price, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Oscar Hill at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor. We're well aware that there's a whole host of other bookies vying for your business, so why not...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.40 Ludlow

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just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

Wyck Hill helping Bridgwater to new season’s best

Wyck Hill - on the up, like his trainer

Wyck Hill - on the up, like his trainer

A trainer whose best total is 13 winners in a season tends not to register very highly in the minds of people. That many do recognise the name of David Bridgwater is largely down to the success he has had with one horse, the Giant Bolster, and in particular from his second place in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Read more

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2012

Firstly, a warm welcome to all new Stat of the Day followers, especially those who our friends at More Money Review invited. I hope you enjoy this daily feature, and please remember that it's not magic, and we have more losers than winners. The trick, of course, is to ensure that the winners more than pay for the losers, something we've managed quite successfully since starting exactly a year again.

Indeed, it was SotD's first birthday yesterday and, unfortunately, William Buick hadn't bought us a card. The normally excellent jockey was asleep in the stalls and forgot to remove the hood from Resplendent Alpha. Here's the Sporting Life result comment:

Rider removed blind late, slowly away in rear, some late headway on outer final furlong

Hmm. In fact, having lost eight lengths at the start, he was beaten less than five at the finish. We don't generally make excuses here at SotD, but that has to be marked down as unlucky.

Onwards, and today we're looking at the Southern National, a three and a half mile handicap chase around the only remaining figure of eight jumps course in Britain. It's the...

2.05 Fontwell

As some of you will know, I recently gave away a free system which focused on a handful of trainers who excel with handicap runners. One of the five in that manual was David Bridgwater. 'Bridgy' is having an excellent year, and his fancied handicappers (priced 12/1 or shorter) have won 13 of 47 starts for a profit of 28.84 points at Betfair SP in 2012.

Bridgwater's record at Fontwell is pretty good too: he's won seven of the fifteen handicaps in which he's had a runner priced 12/1 or shorter... and four of the six he's entered this year! That's worth a profit of twenty points, and one of the key elements of that healthy balance sheet is today's selection, Double Chocolate.

Double Chocolate is a bit of a Fontwell specialisit. Indeed, of the four races he's won, three have been on this quirky 'horses for courses' track. And all four of his wins have been within a furlong of the extreme three and a half mile trip. In other words, he likes it here. He's won three times on good ground and once on soft, so today's good to soft should be fine too.

His recent form of 1P7R1312218 becomes 1R11 when distilled to Fontwell only. The 'R' was a 'ran out', when Double Choc bucked and kicked his way to the first and swerved the fence. Obviously not an attractive trait, but that seemed to be a one off, and he's won his other three starts here.

This represents a small step up in class, from Class 4 to Class 3, but he's earned that by consistently winning in that lower grade (all four wins in Class 4).

Double Chocolate sneaks in here off almost bottom weight, and looks to have everything in his favour for a big run. It's a competitive race, as befits prize money of £11,000, and at the 9/1 available an each way bet is the suggestion.

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.05 Fontwell

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2012

Stat of the Day 01/10

Stat of the Day 01/10

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2012

Yesterday saw us finish as runner-up for the second successive day, as Resurge just didn't quite have enough to get home. You can't win them all, but September was still a good month as we did win our fair share (37%) on our way to a 25pts profit for the month.

But that was last month! And we start October with a clean slate and it's a typically poor Monday to kick off with.

But there's no excuses to be made, every race will have a winner and we're going to try a find a result at Britain's highest (780 ft above sea level) flat racecourse. The event is a open-looking 15-runner, 10-furlong, Class 5 Handicap on Good ground.

The number of runners and the openness of the race should give us a reasonable price for a speculative E/W punt in the...

3.20 Bath

There's no one single standout stat to support any of the runners in this contest, if I'm honest, but there's enough information when combined together to give us a decent chance of making a profit from the race.

Trainer David Bridgwater doesn't run many horses at Bath: just 4 in the last two years. Yet he's tasted success on two of those occasions, it is admittedly a small sample size, but a 50% record is pretty good and he has just the one runner at the track today in the form of Edgeworth.

Edgeworth was a 7/1 course and distance winner on his last visit to this track back in June and has finished third in two of his three other outings at Bath, so he clearly goes well here. Today's trip of 10 furlongs is probably his best distance too: 6 wins from 24 for 15.pts level stakes profits and a further 6 placed finishes for a place strike rate of 50% at this trip.

The  C&D victory came when ridden by talented apprentice George Downing and George takes the reins again today, This jockey is no slouch around Bath either where he's won 4 of 7 contests for a profit of 22pts.

One last pointer I'd like to refer to is the fact that Edgeworth was sired by Pyrus whose progeny are 4/12 at the course.

As I intimated earlier, this isn't the strongest SotD selection we've had recently, but this is reflected in the prices available and we'll be taking an E/W punt at this one today. So it's a 0.5pts E/W bet today at 14/1 BOG courtesy of Bet365, BoyleSports or BetVictor (take your pick!) or you could wait and then...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Bath.

Trainer Trends – 20th Oct

Training GallopsWith the jumps season starting to hit top gear find out which NH handlers are hitting the ground running, while there’s a high-profile flat trainer who is on the cold list and heading for his worst campaign for over 20 years..... Read more