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Stat of the Day, 4th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, hung left and pressed inside final furlong, headed close home, beaten by a head). After a rough few days, that was hard to take, but we dust ourselves down and go again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cruising @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

The racecard says...

So, let's see how the above could have a bearing on today's contest...

The speed rating is, as always, self-explanatory, second only to a runner half our price and now on to the three highlighted Report Angles (my settings are always 20%+ wins, A/E of 1.25+ and IV of 1.5+) which are, as you know, a 24-month window on performance.

From the top working down...Jockey 14-day form (14 on the card, too) : Paul Mulrennan is riding really well right now and had 3 winners from 8 yesterday at Hamilton.  And of his 13/56 fortnightly record, all were on grass and he is 8/31 ( 25.8% SR) over 7f or shorter.

Then the Trainer/Jockey Combo... Paul's 6 from 18 over the last 12 months for trainer David Brown actually looks like this in 2020...

including...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.84pts (+198%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.35pts (+76.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (73.3%) with LTO winners...

...leading us nicely to the third angle...David Brown's LTO winners, who more long-term ie since the start of 2016 in handicaps of 9 furlongs or shorter are...

from which they have the following relevant records...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 35.52pts (+82.6%) from male runners
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 39.35pts (+87.5%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.57pts (+89.6%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+136.3%) on the Flat
  • and 5/20 (25%) for 7.69pts (+38.5%) at Class 5

...and if you wanted a composite micro based around those categories above ie sex, distance and field size, you could try males over 5-7f in 6-10 runner contests for ...

...including 5/11 (45.5%) on the Flat and 5/9 (55.6%) at Class 5 and 22/3 (66.6% SR) for 14.24pts (+474.6% ROI) in Class 5 contests on the Flat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cruising @ 13/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.40 Bath : Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 9/1 (Keen led after 2f, clear with one other over 5f out, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding ran just once as a two year old and once as a three year old for two different trainers to little effect. He never ran last year and moved yards to David Brown in late 2019, sparking him into life.

He returned to the track in early January to make a yard debut some 417 days after his last run and his record this year now stands at 114211 (117 days between the last two runs whilst he was gelded) including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 from 5 in handicaps
  • 3 from 5 on a straight track
  • 3 from 4 over 5 furlongs
  • 3 from 4 in a straight 5f handicap
  • 1 from 2 at Class 4 (although won at Class 3 LTO)
  • 1 from 1 on the Flat (LTO)
  • 1 from 1 on Good to Firm (also LTO)
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey Cam Hardie (yes, also LTO)

He was last seen just four days ago when making all on good to firm up at Ayr in a Class 3, 5f handicap and with a good draw here today, similar tactics could well be the key, as shown on the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map.

As well as his form this year since a switch of yard, that last run at Ayr piqued my interest, as trainer David Brown is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 18.26pts (+83% ROI) with horses turned back out within 10 days of their last run since the start of 2019. I won't break those 22 down, as it will dilute the dataset too much.

However, we can look at the the other angle that popped up on my notes last night and that is David Brown + LTO winners + 2016-20 = 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 30.07pts (+47% ROI), including of note today...

  • 14/57 (24.6%) for 37.07pts (+65%) in handicaps
  • 12/48 (25%) for 25.83pts (+53.8%) with males
  • 10/27 (37%) for 10.06pts (+37.2%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 3.62pts (+115.9%) in races worth £4k-£10k
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 28.11pts (+90.7%) on the Flat
  • 7/20 (35%) for 49.1pts (+245.5%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.79pts (+61.2%) over 5 furlongs
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.01pts (+6.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.65pts (+309.3%) on good to firm ground...

...from which, male handicappers sent off shorter than 5/1 are 9 from 20 (45% SR) for 11.12pts (+55.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!