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Placepot pointers – Friday September 9

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £55.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Nemoralia), 6 (Lumiere) & 7 (Mise En Rose)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Legendary Lunch), 7 (The Last Lion) & 1 (Afandem)

Leg 3 (3.05): 11 (Wall Of Fire) & 6 (Polarisation)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Quest For More), 1 (Burmese) & 9 (St Michel)

Leg 5 (4.15): 5 (Salsabell) & 7 (Tamool)

Leg 6 (4.50): 10 (Khairaat), 11 (Indulged) & 6 (Winterval)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 19 renewals (including 14 of the last 15) and with four of the seven declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (57% of the field), vintage representatives are 8/11 to extend their good run of results.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of NEMORALIA, LUMIERE and MISE EN ROSE.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last nineteen years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot position in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1--Nemoralia (good)

2.30: The Hannon stable has secured five of the last eleven renewals and having declared LEGENDARY LUNCH and GRIZZEL with chances here (especially from a toteplacepot perspective), Richard could improve the ratio further still.  Mark Johnston is another double handed trainer with definite claims though despite what the official ratings suggest, I prefer THE LAST LION to Yalta.  Course and distance winner AFANDEM is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst 10 of the 21 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 69 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 51 points.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

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7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the second event on the card:

1/1--Afandem (soft)

1/1--The Last Lion (soft)

3.05: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst nine three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider involved this time around WALL OF FIRE who is certainly 'well in' here, especially with Josephine Gordon reducing the burden further still via her useful three pound claim.  POLARISATION, CAYIRLI and FABRICATE represent the four-year-old vintag which has claimed three of the last four renewals.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last nineteen years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/1--All Talk N No Do (good to firm)

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals of the Doncaster Cup and with QUEST FOR MORE back in winning form, the lone vintage raider can go close in a typical staying event when consistent form lines are a fabrication of the truth!  I'll throw BURMESE and ST MICHEL into the toteplacepot mix, suggesting that we should get through to the fourth leg of out favourite wager accordingly. As much as I love this St Leger meeting, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket from a win perspective in this event.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, though 11 of the other 13 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Doncaster record of runners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/2--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/1--Curbyourenthusiasm (good)

1/1--Mizzou (good to firm)

1/1--Quest For More (good)

1/1--Sheikhzayedroad (good)

4.15: I have offered the last two (8/1 & 15/8) winners of this event and in going for the hat trick, I'm opting for SALSABELL to supplement his Yarmouth victory despite the sharp step up in class. There was plenty to like about his debut seaside success, with connections probably having most to fear from TAAMOL and RODAINI.  It's worth noting in this competitive (year on year) event or at least it was, until Frankel won the 2010 renewal by thirteen lengths!

Favourite factor: Six of the last seven favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 11 renewals contested during the last 12 years were also secured by market leaders.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of the Placepot finale, though vintage representatives are 6/5 to extend the good run of results before the form book is consulted.  Sir Michael Stoute's KHAIRAAT demands the call following a facile Pontefract success at the second time of asking following a promising debut.  INDULGED is considered 'next best' as far as the junior raiders are concerned, though four-year-old WINTERVAL cannot be dismissed at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, though four years have slipped by since back to back winning favourites were recorded in 2010/11.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday (stats compiled before Thursday's sport was contested):

5--Mark Johnston (3/27 at Doncaster this season - winners at 7/2-9/4*-4/5*)

4--Richard Hannon (1/25 - winner at 10/1)

4--Hugo Palmer (2/5 - winners at 6/1 twice)

3--Charlie Appleby (7/12 - winners at 12/1-6/1-3/1-3/1**-11/10*-Evens*-3/10*)

3--Brian Ellison (2/30 - winners at 4/1 & 5/2*)

3--Brian Meehan (0/7)

3--Roger Varian (5/15 - winners at 7/1-13/8-13/8*-11/10*-8/13*)

2--Mick Channon (1/5 winner at 8/1)

2--Luca Cumani (3/10 - winners at 3/1-3/1-10/11*)

2--Seamus Durack (---)

2--Richard Fahey (5/62 - winners at 20/1-13/2-5/1-5/1-13/8*)

2--John Patrick Shanahan (0/1)

2--David Simcock (3/10 - winners at 7/2**-5/2-Evens*)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (6/12 - winners at 25/1-5/4*-5/6*-5/6*-5/6*-1/2*)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £51.90 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £43.40 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced

Sandown: £31.40 - 8 favourites - No winners - 5 placed - 3 unplaced

 

Doncaster overview - Juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.30 & 4.15 (stats compiled before Thursday's sport was contested):

2.30:

5/33--Hugo Palmer (Afandem)

5/28--John Gosden (Ardad)

No runners--D J Bunyan (Hit The Bid)

9/69--Richard Hannon (Legendary Lunch & Grizzel)

0/1--Robert Cowell (Prince Of Lir)

0/4--Ann Duffield (Rainbow Mist)

8/70--Mark Johnston (The Last Lion & Yalta)

2/19--Clive Cox (Tis Marvellous)

0/7--Robert Eddery (Equimo)

4.15: 

4/25--Brian Meehan (Bacchus)

9/69--Richard Hannon (Larchmont Lad)

5/33--Hugo Palmer (Majoris)

1/2--Simon Crisford (Rodaini)

9/37--Charlie Appleby (Salsabell)

14/105--Richard Fahey (Senator)

3/12--Sir Michael Stoute (Taamol)

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday June 24

NEWMARKET (JULY) – JUNE 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £19.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 2 (Snappy Guest), 3 (Severus) & 7 (Henshaw)

Leg 2 (6.20): 2 (Bouquet De Flores) & 9 (Tuisbutadream)

Leg 3 (6.55): 2 (North Creek), 7 (Sainted) & 3 (Generalship)

Leg 4 (7.25): 3 (Muaither) & 4 (Aristocles)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Mehronissa) & 1 (Golden Amber)

Leg 6 (8.25): 4 (Four On Eight) & 6 (Cat Royale)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.45: The eleven winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 18 of the 32 horses (56%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving other to invest from a win perspective.  The last eight winners (and ten of the eleven in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other seven contenders consists of SNAPPY GUEST, SEVERUS and HENSHAW.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until two years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions.

6.20: In terms of reports before the newcomers make their debuts, BOUQUET DE FLORES and TISBUTADREAM make the most appeal with the damn of the latter named David Elsworth raider having produced two winners from as many foals to date.  BOUQUET DE FLORES is well thought of back at the (Charlie Appleby) ranch and this daughter of Street Cry is expected to run well on her first day at school before making her presence felt at a high level over the coming months.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card via the BHA two-year-old (Novice) system which was brought into place earlier in the year.

6.55: 10 of the last 12 winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 (last year's gold medallist scored of 9-1) with NORTH CREEK, SAINTED and GENERALSHIP all fancied to figure prominently on this occasion. Chris Wall had won with four of his last four runners at the time of writing, whereby the trio are listed in order of preference albeit marginally in a tight looking contest.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

7.25: Horses carrying at least 9-1 have secured eight of the thirteen available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the five winners at odds of 9/1-9/2-10/3-3/1. MUAITHER and REGAL MONARCH make most appeal via just three qualifiers this time around.  ARISTOCLES might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with Sir Michael Stoute saddling just this one runner over the first two days of the three day meeting, having secured a couple of winners during the corresponding fixtures twelve months ago.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured two toteplacepot postions (gold and silver medallists) between them to date.

7.55: MEHRONISSA is the only course winner on the card and although this is another 'short field' event, Ed Vaughan's consistent filly could win her fifth race on her tenth assignment in this Conditions event.  The official ratings suggest that GOLDEN AMBER should go close, especially with Dean Ivory's team enjoying a an extended spell of good form in recent weeks..

Favourite factor:  Five clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last seventeen renewals of this event which is confined to fillies.  11 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

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Record of course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/2--Mehronissa (good)

8.25: Three-year-olds came to the last year's party on a four timer and although denied on that occasion, the race is expected to revert to type, especially with Luca Cumani's beaten favourite FOUR ON EIGHT being offered an obvious chance to atone for the recent defeat.  Luca's Lawman colt is the first name on the team sheet ahead of fellow vintage raiders CAT ROYALE and NOT TOUCH.

Favourite factor: Nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years, statistics which include four winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:

4--Michael Appleby (1/18 at Newmarket during the last five years)

4--Richard Hannon (24/118 - 1/12 this season - winner at 3/1*)

3--Phil McBride (7/56)

2--John Gallagher (1/5)

2--John Gosden (39/179 - 1/8 this season - winner at 7/4*)

2--Martyn Meade (3/26 - 1/3 this season - winner at 3/1)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Cartmel: 824.90 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced

Chester: 50.40 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced

Doncaster: 897.50 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced

Newcastle - now A/W - was turf: £101.30 - 6 favourite - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced

Yarmouth: No meeting last year

 

Newmarket overview - relating to their juvenile event at 6.20

5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:

No runners--Michael Appleby (Amathyst)

13/64--Charlie Appleby (Bouquet De Flores)

No runners--Charlie Wallis (Ciel Rouge)

18/104--Richard Hannon (Fabric & Paulownier - 0/2 from two this season)

0/11--Paul D'Arcy (Pemberley House)

0/8--Mark Tompkins (Sandwood Bay)

2/22--Phil McBride (Spiritual Lady)

3/30--David Elsworth (Tisbutadream)

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 29th December

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 29th December 2015

 

It should be noted that placed/unplaced records are in line with the ruling of bookmakers, i.e. only one win and one place in races for 5/6/7 runners etc.

 

Before moving on to Tuesday's offering, you might like to reflect how some of the trainers faired at the two day Christmas Kempton festival:

3/8—Nicky Henderson

2/6—Gary Moore

1/1—Kim Bailey

1/1—Sheena West

1/3—Nick Williams

1/4--Harry Fry

1/4--Colin Tizzard

1/5—Alan King

1/5—Willie Mullins

0/4—Jonjo O’Neill

0/5—Nigel Twiston-Davies

0/6—Dan Skelton

0/12—Paul Nicholls

 

Corresponding details for Tuesday:

 

Placepot dividends at Doncaster for the last three renewal years: 

2014: ABANDONED

2013: £107.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2012: £72.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2011: £8.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £62.83

Favourites (19): 5 winners – 8 placed – 6 unplaced

 

Trainers with at least 3 winners at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

6—Nicky Henderson (4/7* - 11/10* - 11/8 – 9/2 – 15/2 – 8/1)

Nicky is the only trainer to have saddled more than one winner during the study period.  His six winners emerged from two hat tricks achieved in two separate years when he only had the relevant three runners on each card.  The trebles were recorded at 159/1 (2013) & 19/1 (2011).

 

Trainers with at least 2 beaten at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

4—Donald McCain (11/8 – 6/4 – 2/1 – 7/2)

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2—Alan King (5/4 & 7/4)

 

Average Doncaster Placepot dividend this season (4 meetings): £226.55

Favourite statistics in Placepot races: 7 winners – 6 placed – 13 unplaced (26)

 

Placepot dividends at Kelso for the last three renewal years: 

2014: ABANDONED

2013: £168.10 (7 favourites - 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2012: £16.30 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £1,291.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

Average dividend: £491.97

Favourites (20): 6 winners – 2 placed – 12 unplaced

 

Trainers with at least 3 winners at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

4—Lucinda Russell (6/5* - 13/8 – 13/8 – 10/3)

 

Trainers with at least 3 beaten at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

3—Nick Alexander (5/2 – 11/4** - 3/1**)

 

Average Placepot dividend at Kelso this season (7 meetings): £81.90

Favourite stats in Placepot races:

45 favourites – 16 winners – 13 placed – 16 unplaced

 

Placepot dividends at Newbury for the last four years: 

2014: £48.60 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2013: £78.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2012: £18.70 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2011: £53.60 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £49.73

Favourites (27): 10 winners – 4 placed – 13 unplaced

 

Trainers with at least 2 winners at this corresponding meeting during the study period (Note the exact details at Newbury taking into account all the relevant stats):

7/20—Nicky Henderson (4/5* - 6/5* - 11/8 – 11/8 – 13/8* - 5/1 – 8/1)

3/6—Charlie Longsdon (15/8* - 3/1 – 5/1)

2/3—Harry Fry (4/6* & 13/2)

2/9—Paul Nicholls (9/4 & 12/1)

2/10—Philip Hobbs (4/5* & 1/4*)

2/10—Venetia Williams (5/2* & 11/4)

 

Trainers with at least 2 beaten favourites at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

5—Alan King (11/10 – 2/1 – 9/4 – 9/4** - 10/3**)

3—Paul Nicholls (7/4 – 7/4 – 10/3**)

2—Nick Mitchell (4/1 & 4/1**)

 

Average Placepot dividend at Newbury this season (4 meetings): £145.09

Favourite record in Placepot races:

26 market leaders: 7 winners – 10 placed – 9 unplaced

 

Southwell A/W details:

Average Placepot dividend since the start of November: £236.95 (10 meetings)

Record of favourites in the relevant Placepot races:

71 favourites in total – 18 winners – 18 placed – 35 unplaced