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Stat of the Day, 25th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.10 Ayr : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and kept on well final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

As usual, the racecard holds several clues...

As you can see by their respective 14, 30 and C5 icons, the Skeltons are in good form and have a good record at this track. The report angle shows they are 3 from 6 together over the last fortnight and then my own (once-again imaginatively entitled) angles tell me that Dan Skelton is one of a number of trainers who do well with Class 4/5 chasers (not all 2876 runners are his!) and he's also one of mine to follow over fences here at Bangor and I'll explain those two angles briefly for you.

We'll start with C4/5 Chs and this is the criteria I apply to the Skelton chasers...

...which has generated the following pretty self-explanatory results.

If we now take a quick look at Dan Skelton's Bangor chasers, we see that those sent off at 9/1 or shorter since the start of 2015 are...

including of relevance today...

  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 19.23pts (+71.2%) with Harry Skelton in the saddle
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.23pts (+92.6%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.94pts (+298.4%) on soft ground...

...whilst Harry + 1-60dslr = 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 24.23pts (+110.1% ROI), inc 2/4 at C&D and 2/3 on soft.

One last thing that I want to touch on is the adoption of cheekpieces today. This 7 yr old mare has only worn them once before and that was eight races and almost two years ago, but I'm always interested in chasers suddenly sporting headgear, because...

...during May to September (my summer chasing season) since the start of 2016, handicap chasers sent off at Evens to 15/2 wearing headgear after failing to make the frame without any LTO are...

Now, it could just be coincidental, but that's a lot of winners/profit from a decent sample size to be pure chance, surely? And from those 240 runners, we have...

  • 59/223 (26.5%) for 96.1pts (+43.1%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 51/198 (25.8%) for 77.6pts (+39.2%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 42/154 (27.3%) for 69.2pts (+44.9%) in cheekpieces
  • 38/124 (30.7%) for 88.9pts (+71.7%) were beaten by more than 15 lengths LTO
  • and 24/96 (25%) for 42.3pts (+44%) stepped up in trip by up to 5.5 furlongs

As I said, it could be pure coincidence, but those wearing cheekpieces in 5-12 runner contests 6-60 days after being beaten by more than 15 lengths are 21 from 59 (35.6% SR) for 58.3pts (+98.8% ROI), including 3 from 3 in the last four weeks...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.20am Tuesday (a bit later than usual after a swathe of non-runners), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!