Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Flood Defence @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Took keen hold, prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Same Circus 10/3 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old mare has won 3 of her last 8 starts, all at Class 3 and/or Listed class and now turns out on a Class 4 race here today at a track where 3m6½f was probably too far for here last time out, but she does have 2 wins and a place from 5 previous visits in total, including a win and a runner-up finish from her two hurdling efforts over course and distance. Further positives come in the figures of 3 wins from 6 in cheekpieces and 3 wins from 4 in Feb/March.

Her trainer, Donald McCain, was the centre/focus of the recent EI outbreak, but his horses now seem fit and well with 7 top 3 (including 3 winners) finishes from 11 attempts so far this month and he has done historically well in handicaps at this venue. So much so, that you could have actually just done a "bet and forget" job on them and made money!

Numerically, we're looking at 23 winners from 114 runners (20.2% SR) in NH handicaps here at Catterick since the start of 2013 generating 11.3pts profit at a handy 9.9% ROI from purely blind betting. Ideally, we'd cut some losing bets out and increase the ROI, so here's where the 23 winners came from...

  • all 23 came from 91 (25.3%) sent off at 10/1 or shorter for profits of 34.3pts (+37.7%)
  • 17 from 80 (21.25%) for 24.6pts (+30.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 14 from 63 (22.2%) for 18.1pts (+28.7%) aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7 from 14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+1650%)
  • 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 17.84pts (+93.9%) with a jockey claiming 6-8 lbs
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 2.31pts (+33%) from those with a previous C&D win
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 12.63pts (+157.9%) with Abbie McCain in the saddle

If you wanted a little McCain/Catterick microsystem, you could simply follow his 5-10 yr olds in fields of 6-11 runners at odds of 10/1 and shorter. This approach has been good for 17 winners from 60 (28.3% SR) for 44.6pts (+74.3% ROI) profit, from which hurdlers are 12/38 (31.6%) for 28.2pts (+74.2%) with Abbie riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) of those 38 hurdlers for 13.14pts at an ROI of 328.5%.

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Same Circus 10/3 BOG which was available in around half a dozen or so places at 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: UK Racing Reels from Point Blank Jab

Every autumn, while the days are still long and temperatures warm, the messages start, writes Tony Stafford. Either as SMS’s or calls from the surgery’s land line. “Don’t forget your ‘flu jab. It’s free!”

Boots the chemist also makes regular calls to one and all to take advantage of the offer for much of the pre-winter period. From my surgery the urgency increases with time. Obviously they have so many units of the stuff they simply do not want to be left with any. After all, who’s going to bother taking precautions once you get past Christmas?

A few years ago I succumbed to the onslaught, much as regular (possibly annual, although seemingly constant) demands to have one’s type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, eyesight, weight, feet and God knows what checked punctuate life for over 65’s in the Britain of the 21st Century.

So I have the flu jab each year and, while it does not guarantee immunity, I have never had what goes for “proper” flu when you are stuck in bed for a week and end up with agony in the bones and joints. Then again I’d never had more than a cold in any of the previous six-and-a-bit decades before Mr Flu Jab entered my senior life.

Every racehorse in Great Britain has to be fully inoculated against Equine Influenza before it ever races and each year has to have a booster injection. Just as my insurance against the worst potential effects of flu is no guarantee of escape from infection, so horses’ immunity is also not inevitable.

When Wednesday’s news of Donald McCain’s stable’s having three confirmed cases of EI was revealed it shocked and stopped racing in its tracks. These were revealed by the Animal Health Trust in Newmarket after swabs on the three horses were taken by vet Alasdair Topp on McCain’s instigation as those three horses had been exhibiting “worrying signs”.

All McCain’s runners since the previous Monday were monitored. Immediately the BHA ordered that every stable that might have had a horse possibly coming into contact with one of the McCain animals at those racecourses should go into “lockdown”. The race was on to test every horse in what amounted to 174 stables, and equally to get the swabs to carry out the tests. Soon after, three more McCain horses, including one of three from the stable to have raced in the days immediately before the revelation, were discovered to have the virus.

Those veterinary practices that were quick off the mark apparently bought up all available swab supplies, leaving some stables to have to wait in limbo for days before being tested. The vets have been to the forefront in this procedure as racing underwent an initial week-long hiatus, one that could well be prolonged further after Sunday night’s news that four Simon Crisford stable inmates have tested positive.

Your first 30 days for just £1

So, most worryingly, especially for the sport’s top practitioners, Newmarket is not clear. Crisford, while at the moment concentrating more with his runners at Meydan, did have a beaten odds-on shot (Sajanjl) at Newcastle last Tuesday but not on a day that McCain had a runner there. Crisford is in an interesting, nay privileged, position, hardly surprising in view of his long previous career as Sheikh Mohammed’s racing manager at Godolphin.

Overseas trainers are allowed runners only on the days of the Carnival in Dubai, but alone, apart from Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor, Godolphin’s main trainers in the UK, Crisford can also run horses at non-Carnival fixtures there. He is operating a satellite yard in the Emirate, so counts as a local trainer.

It did not take long for opinion to question the need for such stringent action. Nigel Twiston-Davies vociferously echoed the thoughts of many stablemen who believe that as all these horses have been immunised, the fact that a few cases have been revealed is little different from the run of the mill situation in all stables where runny noses and temperatures are a daily fact of life.

One trainer, not affected by the lockdown, said that for weeks around the country marts talk has been of rampant flu in non-racing animals in the UK and Ireland while he had heard that one of France’s leading trotting yards has voluntarily closed itself down.

Whatever the rights and wrongs, and clearly the BHA had to be seen to be acting to contain such a contagious disease, the costs for owners will as ever be considerable. Apart from missed opportunities at the track – who says the Betfair Hurdle prizemoney will ever be collected? – the blood tests must be paid for by somebody. My contact reckons the vets are the only winners in this costly exercise.

It was timely that Luck on Sunday chose this week for his principal guest to be Michael Dickinson, 36 years after his unique and much-celebrated Famous Five Gold Cup when Bregawn led home Captain John, Wayward Lad, Silver Buck and Ashley House that March day in Cheltenham.

Dickinson seems hardly changed in his appearance since those days, but more than 30 years on from his departure to train in the US after his sacking as Robert Sangster’s trainer at Manton, he is uniquely placed to assess such problems as the present veterinary crisis.

Luck asked how equine flu is dealt with in the US, to which Dickinson said that the system of training at racetracks makes it easier to handle any problems. With each stable and trainer having his own barn, any infected horse and therefore trainer’s barn can be quickly closed down and put effectively into isolation.

Just as when international runners go over for events such as the Breeders’ Cup, they have to go onto the track for training after the main body of domestic horses are exercised, so any barns with horses showing signs of infection have to exercise at separate times.

Newmarket stables identified as being in lockdown are similarly being required to exercise their horses in the afternoons, until clear returns for all those horses are established. As anybody that’s ever spoken to a trainer will tell you, horses have to be exercised every day once they have been brought to racing fitness, for their own and stable staff’s welfare. Monday morning traditionally, after a quiet Sunday, was always the day when lads expected a fiery first few minutes before the weekend “fizz” was extinguished.

Much of the 40 minutes of Luck and Dickinson devolved into a thrust and counter-thrust of the Mad Genius berating the Boy Wonder on his love of dirt racing. Dickinson, contrarily, while conceding the Triple Crown is safe, reckons dirt racing’s time may be coming almost to a conclusion.

As the developer of the Tapeta racing surface, as he revealed the result of 53 different elements – “we had them all in boxes” – his championing of turf and synthetic over dirt is hardly unexpected. But he backed his point of view with compelling statistics of the level of fatalities in dirt racing.

He said that the biggest complaints about racing in the United States were ”medication, facilities and dirt”, while agreeing that when Da Hoss won his two Breeders’ Cup Mile races two years apart, he did race with both Lasix and Bute.

Luck called that hypocritical, but Dickinson would not be shamed saying, “Lasix moves a horse up four lengths. If we’d not allowed him to use it, we wouldn’t have won and you wouldn’t be interviewing me now”. The “four lengths” theory explains why Frank Stronach, boss of Gulfstream Park in Florida wrote a condition in the two multi-million dollar Pegasus races recently allowing 7lb for horses not using any medication. Aidan O’Brien took the option and was rewarded with a highly-lucrative second place from Magic Wand in the Turf race.

Dickinson armed himself with a number of quotes. In one a New York racing secretary said that if he writes a maiden race on dirt, he’ll get two entries. The same conditions for a maiden on turf would attract 18. The writing it seems is on that particular wall, but then the fact that turf tracks are susceptible to wear and tear is a constant downside for US racecourses that may race every day for weeks on end.

Dickinson also offered a quote from Aidan O’Brien, perhaps understandable after the shocking experience of Mendelssohn in last year’s Kentucky Derby: “Dirt racing has an aggression approaching the level of savagery.” Point taken! As for racing here, let’s hope enough of the swabs come back clean so that it can resume before too much more damage is done.

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Fume @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 4,  Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

Nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who toughed it out to virtually make all when winning at Bangor two starts ago. He was then only 7th of 14 on his handicap debut at Kelso next/last time out, having weakened very badly in the closing stages from a position where he had every chance 2 out. He has, however, had a wind op since then and if that does the trick, a mark of 115 might be too low for this one.

Stat-wise, it's pretty simple as I intimated in my pre-amble : trainer Donald McCain + Musselburgh + 2012-18 = 45 from 195 (23.1% SR) for 56.1pts (+28.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 runners are 21/82 (25.6%) for 51.3pts (+62.6%)
  • 2016-18 = 15/65 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+53.4%)
  • over this 2m trip : 24/62 (38.7%) for 59.5pts (+96%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/39 (35.9%) for 19.3pts (+49.6%)
  • and his handicap hurdlers are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.6pts (+98.7%) since the start of 2016...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.30pm on Sunday evening. (extra point is available from Bet365) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

6.20 Chelmsford : Coachella @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Held up in last trio, headway over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, not pace to threaten) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m3f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has finished in the first four home in 8 of his last 9 starts, all under today's jockey Lorcan Murtagh and including 2 wins. He'll like the ground today and he stays this far (probably further too, based on what I've seen on replay).

Stat-wise, it's a simple starting point with trainer Donald McCain Jnr's record here at Sedgefield in recent seasons. Donald's runners are 41 from 213 (19.25% SR) for a modest 2.83pts (+1.33% ROI) profit since the start of 2015 and whilst those aren't terribly exciting returns, the strike rate is excellent from blind backing and it's always good to start from a profitable position.

We, of course, wouldn't have advocated backing all 213 runners, of course, we'd rather find some logical filters that are applicable today and would also reduce our outlay whilst increasing our returns, such as...

  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 41/197 (20.8%) for 18.83pts (+9.56%)
  • males are 35/186 (18.8%) for 6.61pts (+3.55%)
  • those sent off at 5/4 to 10/1 are 36/166 (21.7%) for 12.22pts (+7.36%)
  • handicappers are 25/142 (17.6%) for 14.04pts (+9.89%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 14/94 (14.9%) for 7.83pts (+8.33%)
  • on Good ground : 13/71 (18.3%) for 7.73pts (+10.89%)
  • and at trips beyond 3 miles : 5/24 (20.8%) for 10.88pts (+45.3%)

Now, with the exception of the stayers, those numbers still don't do enough to get the pulses racing, although 7 to 11% is far better than a bank offers and we'd have fun doing it! The answer, of course, is to tie the filters together and the simplest angle from above is to back Donald's male handicap hurdlers here, as they are 12/79 (15.2% SR) for 14.37pts (+18.2% ROI). This means we've multiplied our ROI by 14 whilst only placing 37% of the original 213 bets!

We can, of course, drill into those 79 male handicap hurdlers if we wished and if we did, we'd find that...

  • 5-10 yr olds are 12/71 (16.9%) for 22.37pts (+31.5%)
  • Class 2 to 4 runners are 8/57 (14%) for 16.93pts (+29.7%)
  • in 2017/18 : 9/45 (20%) for 23.23pts (+51.62%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 11/60 (18.3%) for 15.74pts (+26.24%)
  • on Good ground : 5/29 (17.2%) for 21.49pts (+74.09%)
  • and over today's 3m3f course and distance : 2/11 (18.2%) for 7.82pts (+71.05%)

And from the above, 5-10 yo male hcp hurdlers at Class 2-4 in 2017/18 at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 are 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.49pts (+120.53%) including 2/7 (28.6%) for 10.32pts (+147.5%) and 2 from 4 (50%) for 14.82pts (+370.4%) over this 3m3f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.35pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was some 3/1 BOG available at Bet365 for those able/quick enough to take advantage. In fact 7/2 was widely available at 9.00am Thursday! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Ludlow : Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led until 3rd, chased leader, jumped into lead 5th, went left 3 out 2 out and last, hung left and headed run-in, no extra in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding brings the best recent form to the table of all 8 runners in this contest, having won 2 of his last 3 (121) outings with wins here at Bangor over 2m3.5f and at Uttoxeter last time out (18 days ago) over 3 miles sandwiching a defeat by just a neck over 3m2.5f at Sedgefield, so the trip shouldn't be a concern today.

All three of those races were on Good or Good to Soft ground and all were after 17 days rest from his previous run, so he's getting similar conditions here today. His yard is in good nick right now with 5 winners from 22 (22.7% SR) over the last fortnight generating 270.1pts profit at an ROI of 1227.7%, admittedly skewed by a 100/1 winner that paid 294/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't affect the strike rate!

In fact, his trainer Donald McCain is based just 12 miles away from Bangor over the border in Cheshire and has been a regualr and successful visitor to this track in recent years, clocking up 109 winners from 514 runners (21.2% SR) since the start of 2011. Had you been lucky enough to stick £20 on each of them , you'd now have a profit of £3916, equating to a 38.1% return on your investment!

Of these 514 runners, his hurdlers have won 78 of 327 (23.9% SR) for 237pts (+72.5% ROI), so it'd be wiser to focus on those and with that and today's race in mind, here's just a dozen ways that Donald has got his 78 hurdle wins here at Bangor...

  1. Males are 71/289 (24.6%) for 216.9pts (+75%)
  2. Class 4 runners are 54/213 (25.4%) for 115.7pts (+54.3%)
  3. 5/6 yr olds are 47/183 (25.7%) for 176.3pts (+96.3%)
  4. Novice hurdlers are 42/136 (30.9%) for 124pts (+91.2%)
  5. Those last seen 6-25 days earlier are 41/119 (34.5%) for 169.2pts (+142.2%)
  6. Good ground has yielded 36/152 (23.7%) for 78.9pts (+51.9%)
  7. Handicappers are 31/154 (20.1%) for 103.1pts (+67%)
  8. LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 21.1pts (+42.2%)
  9. Those stepping up a class are 13/69 (18.8%) for 80.5pts (+116.7%)
  10. Over this 2m7f course and distance : 9/26 (34.6%) for 30.1pts (+115.7%)
  11. Novice handicap hurdlers are 6/18 (33.3%) for 43.5pts (+241.5%)
  12. And those ridden by today's jockey, Lorcan Murtagh are 3 from 10 (30%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above logical angles to make your own micro-systems, but that does dilute the sample size the more angles you add. If you wanted a simple approach for just a small number of bets per year, then 5 yr old male Class 4 Novice Hurdlers are 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 89.7pts (+204% ROI) with those retuning from a short 6 to 25 day absence winning 8 of 23 (34.8%) for 62.1pts (+270.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG, a price available from Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 5.30pm on Wednesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.05 Huntingdon : Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leading pair, went right 3rd, outpaced when hit 4 out, not fluent 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on to press for modest 2nd closing stages, no chance with winner) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with the inspiration from the pick coming mainly from our Horses for Courses report and also because I like the horse's chances at the prices available!

He's an 8 yr old gelding, who won here at Wolverhampton over 8.5 furlongs 34 days ago on what was just his fourth start for Donald McCain (better known for his NH exploits, of course!). The win took his record for the yard to 2 wins from 4 including 2 from 2 on the A/W, both on this track.

His overall record on the All-Weather is excellent, winning 7 of 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 40.6pts (+193.5% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those 21 races have produced the following of note...

  • going left handed : 6/19 (31.6%) for 35.6pts (+187.5%)
  • wearing blinkers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 37.6pts (+221.4%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 6/15 940%) for 24.7pts (+164.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 7/14 (50%) for 47.6pts (+340.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 5/12 (41.7%) for 39.1pts (+325.9%)
  • at the age of 8 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+216.1%)
  • for Donald McCain : 2/2 (100%) for 19.2pts (+960%)
  • at Class 4 : 1/2 (50%) for 9.93pts (+496.5%)
  • over this 1.5 mile trip : 1/2 950%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%)
  • and over today's course and distance : 1/1 (100%) for 8.23pts (+411.5%)

And from the above, it's worth pointing out that when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Wolverhampton (going left handed, of course!) whilst wearing blinkers in fields of 5 to 11 runners, Barnaby Brook has won 4 of 7 (57.1% SR) for 22.2pts profit at an ROI of 317.3%. Of the three he failed to win, he was the runner-up, beaten by a length, 1.25 lengths and 1.5 lengths : so always on the premises under those conditions...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Barnaby Brook @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betvictor & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening, whilst Bet365 were standouts at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Isabella @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, driven and hard pressed from over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on when narrowly headed inside final furlong, just held)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £5588 to the winner... 

Why?

After falling just short yesterday (pace prediction spot on, but she just couldn't see it out), today's cards are not what I wanted to face looking for a winner, as it's possibly the worst day's racing I've seen for a while. That said, every race has a winner and I expect this 7yr old gelding to do just that.

I'm going to keep it simple, though and start with the horse himself. A runner-up on each of his last two starts, firstly over 2m1.5f and then over 2m4.5f twelve days ago, he stayed on well both times but looked like he needs even further, so an extra 350 yards or so could well make all the difference today.

He's trained by Donald McCain, who admittedly hasn't had as many winners of late as he'd have liked (a feeling I'm very familiar with!), but with 60% of his 20 runners making the frame over the last fortnight, the signs are there that both the camp is in good nick and better times are around the corner.

I should at this point draw the correlation between today's type of contest and Donald's recent record, because since the start of 2016, you could blindly back his Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdlers over trips of 2m3,5f to 2m7f and make a tidy profit. More specifically : 37 winners from 215 (17.2% SR) have generated level stakes profit of 80.1pts (+37.3% ROI) from a simple blind "bet and forget" approach.

And of those 215 runners, those reappearing after a rest of just 11 to 20 days are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+102% ROI).

And now onto his record here at Stratford, which is more than decent in that same 2016 to 2018 timeframe, but he simply doesn't send many here! That said, those that have come have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 38.5pts (+160.5% ROI) profit, so they're more than worth a second glance, especially as...

  • hurdlers are 4/16 (25%) for 18pts (+112.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 27.8pts (+198.9%)
  • using a claiming jockey = 4/12 (33.3%) for 31.34pts (+261.2%)
  • in the June to September summer jumps period : 5/9 (55.6%) for 46.4pts (+515.3%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/2 : 4/6 966.6%) for 8.5pts (+141.7%)
  • those last seen 10-25 days ago are 3/5 (60%) for 24.71pts (+494.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 2/4 (50%) for 3.15pts (+78.75%)
  • those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 2/2 (100%) for 5.15pts (+257.5%)
  • and Harry Stock has ridden one winner from two for 2.33pts profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from at least a half dozen firms at 5.30pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2017

Tuesday's Result :

12.50 Southwell : Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, led before 4th, ridden and headed 2 out, soon weakened.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f on Heavy ground worth £8,122 to the winner...

This 9 yr old gelding has finished 1123141 in his last seven outings and was a winner by some 13 lengths last time out, 25 days ago.

He's trained by Donald McCain whose runners are 7/34 (20.6% SR) over the last 14 days and over the past week, they are 5/24 (20.8% SR), whilst since 2008, the yard is 54/257 (21% SR) for 65.2pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Haydock, including...

  • males are 52/244 (21.3%) for 71.3pts (+29.2%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m4f : 41/170 (24.1%) for 57.5pts (+33.8%)
  • over hurdles : 32/149 (21.5%) for 12.5pts (+8.4%)
  • in handicaps : 21/148 (14.2%) for 36.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Soft or worse ground : 30/143 (21%) for 41.6pts (+29.1%)
  • from October-January : 34/135 (25.2%) for 54.6pts (+40.5%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 36/132 (27.3%) for 96.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 12/60 (20%) for 9.3pts (+15.5%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 4/16 (25%) for 21.7pts (+135.3%)

PLUS...since 2012 Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers who won LTO 1-30 days earlier are 18/91 (19.8% SR) for 32.6pts (+35.9% ROI), including...

  • males at 16/82 (19.5%) for 33.2pts (+40.5%)
  • Class 3 = 5/21 (23.8%) for 21.2pts (+101.1%)
  • and 21-25 days since last run = 7/18 (38.9%) for 36pts (+200%)

AND...more generally since 2012, 4-10 yr old males who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 5 to 15 lengths, 4-45 days earlier are 259/928 (27.9% SR) for 285.5pts (+30.8% ROI) with heavy ground runners winning 31 of 105 (29.5%) for 33.5pts (+31.9%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.10pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Picansort @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up in rear, not clear run on inside over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, beaten by a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dear Sire 11/2 BOG

Why?

Short and hopefully sweet today...

Donald McCain's record here at Musselburgh since the start of 2012 stands at 33 winners from 149 (22.2% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.2% ROI) profit and with regards to today's race, those runners are...

  • 26/86 (30.2%) for 45.5pts (+50.6%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 24/63 (38.1%) for 22.2pts (+35.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m3.5f
  • 14/56 (25%) for 29.4pts (+52.5%) after a break of 11 to 30 days
  • and 16/43 (37.2%) for 57.6pts (+133.8%) carrying 11st to 11st4lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dear Sire 11/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Hills at 6.05pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2017

Saturday's Result :

7.45 Newcastle: Swansway @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by 0.5 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Bangor

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Only A Tipple @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A fairly simple explanation for this one today...

Since the start of 2011, Donald McCain's runners are 81/401 (20.2% SR) for 143.2pts (+35.7% ROI), with the following of relevance today...

  • males are 75/356 (21.1%) for 141.3pts (+39.7%)
  • hurdlers are 57/253 (22.5%) for 177.4pts (+70.1%)
  • in Novice races : 38/147 (25.9%) for 70.3pts (+47.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 23/99 (23.2%) for 55.5pts (+56%)
  • on Soft ground : 18/81 (22.2%) for 109.8pts (+135.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 14/61 (23%) for 81.6pts (+133.7%)

AND...in addition to the above : Donald McCain's Novice Hurdlers running over 2m to 2m4f for a prize of less than £4000 in the October to March are 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 28.7pts (+159.5% ROI) over the last two years, with those priced at 11/2 or shorter winning 3 of 8 (37.5%) for 8.75pts (+109.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Only A Tipple @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by about 15 different firms at 7.05pm on Sunday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Bangor 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2017

Saturday's Result :

7.45 Newcastle: Swansway @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by 0.5 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Bangor

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Only A Tipple @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A fairly simple explanation for this one today...

Since the start of 2011, Donald McCain's runners are 81/401 (20.2% SR) for 143.2pts (+35.7% ROI), with the following of relevance today...

  • males are 75/356 (21.1%) for 141.3pts (+39.7%)
  • hurdlers are 57/253 (22.5%) for 177.4pts (+70.1%)
  • in Novice races : 38/147 (25.9%) for 70.3pts (+47.8%)
  • 6 yr olds are 23/99 (23.2%) for 55.5pts (+56%)
  • on Soft ground : 18/81 (22.2%) for 109.8pts (+135.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 14/61 (23%) for 81.6pts (+133.7%)

AND...in addition to the above : Donald McCain's Novice Hurdlers running over 2m to 2m4f for a prize of less than £4000 in the October to March are 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 28.7pts (+159.5% ROI) over the last two years, with those priced at 11/2 or shorter winning 3 of 8 (37.5%) for 8.75pts (+109.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Only A Tipple @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by about 15 different firms at 7.05pm on Sunday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Bangor 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.45 Southwell: Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, led entering final furlong, ridden and ran on to win by over 3 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Quite a simple one (by my standards, anyway!) today with a horse who has finished 11331 in his 5 last runs in hurdle competition over today's trip and he's 1 from 1 over course and distance.

He's trained by Donald McCain who is 35/154 (22.7% SR) for 38.1pts (+24.7% ROI) here at Musselburgh over the last 5 yrs, including...

  • those carrying 11st 2lbs or more : 26/109 (23.9%) for 46.9pts (+43%)
  • at Classes 4 to 7 : 27/89 (30.3%) for 46.5pts (+52.2%)
  • over 2m 3f / 2m 3.5f : 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.2%)
  • and at this Class 4 : 14/57 (24.6%) for 36pts (+63.1%)

...and for me, that's worth...a 1pt win bet on Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and four others at 5.20pm on Thursday, although those of you lucky/quick enough can get 13/2 BOG from Betfair Sports. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard