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Stat of the Day, 11th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2015

Red Invader was backed as though defeat was unthinkable at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, when our advised 7/2 bet shortened to as low as 5/4 by the scheduled off time.

The race was about 8 minutes late getting away, by which time our runner had eased a little to 6/4, but plenty of people will have ended up with burnt fingers, I'm afraid.

He was slow/awkward away from the stalls and had to be ridden to maintain a reasonable position on the inside, but Luke Morris put everything he had  into getting the horse into a winnable position with a furlong to go, only to see the horse's effort wane and peter out in the closing stages to finish 4th of 7 around 3.5 lengths off the pace.

It hasn't been the best of times over the past week or so, but these runs are inevitable. I will however reiterate that getting 233% of SP is a surefire way of making profit in the long run, even if we're in a temporary flat spot!

The weekend is almost upon us, so I could do with finding a winner in the...

4.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And it's Roger Varian trained and Andrea Atzeni ridden 4 yr old gelding by the name of Toofi, who is currently (5.20pm Thursday!) available at 4/1 BOG with Betfred (and, of course, Totesport!) for this Class 2, 6.5f handicap contest.

Roger Varian is one of the trainers I look out for in flat handicap contests, as his 124 winners from 627 (19.8% SR) record is profitable to the tune of 95.2pts at an ROI of 15.2% and his 'cappers here on Town Moor are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 51.4pts (+131.9% ROI) profit.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a good record here too, having ridden 30 winners from 175 (17.1% SR) rides for profits of 56.8pts (+32.4% ROI), of which his mounts priced at 5/2 to 12/1 are 22/111 (19.8% SR) for 66.8pts (+60.2% ROI) and 4 yr old runners are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 38.2pts (+115.7% ROI).

Andrea Atzeni's record on 4yr olds priced 5/2 to 12/1 here at Doncaster stands at 7/25 (28% SR) for 46.2pts (+184.8% ROI).

When Andrea rides for Roger Varian, you can also expect to collect from the bookies on a regular basis, as the team are currently 96/473 (20.3% SR) for 61pts (+12.9% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • 6f to 7.5f races : 44/190 (23.2% SR) for 82.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • 4yr olds : 15/64 (23.4% SR) for 20.3pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • Doncaster runners priced at 5/1 and shorter : 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 21.1pts (+117.2% ROI)

When last seen three weeks ago, the 4yr old Toofi was running in Listed company and now drops in class to run here in a Class 2 contest and Roger Varian's Class droppers are 33/148 (22.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+15.6% ROI) in handicaps and in relation to this race, they are...

  • 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.1pts (+31% ROI) when dropping down 1 grade
  • 25/113 (22.1% SR) for 23.1pts (+20.4% ROI) on Turf
  • 9/31 (29% SR) for 15.4pts (+49.6% ROI) with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle
  • 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 4.2pts (+60% ROI) here at Doncaster

Roger Varian's Flat Handicappers dropping down 1 grade to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+98.1% ROI) with those priced below 9/2 winning 6 of 9 (66.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+162.3% ROI)

I took my 4/1 BOG about Toofi from Totesport, because I've more money in that account than my Betfred one, but if you're not with either of those, then you'll need to...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Doncaster

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 15th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th August 2015

No joy of any description yesterday, unfortunately!

At Nottingham, both Glastonberry and Effusive were comprehensively beaten by a winner who made all, poured it on and stayed best in tricky conditions, whilst four hours later at Catterick, Our Thomas was really well supported (7/4 from 5/1), but he could only manage to finish as runner-up with Ralph's Beckett's Singular Quest a long way back (last home of five).

Friday's results were as follows:

Glastonberry : u/p (4th) at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Effusive : u/p (5th) at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Our Thomas : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/1)
Singular Quest : u/p (5th) at 5/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2305 = 28.24%
204 winning bets in 597 days = 34.17%

Stakes: 1193.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +114.70pts (+9.61% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last picks of the week...

2.05 Doncaster :

Imaginary World may well have been raised 2lbs for her last outing, but Cam Hardie's 3lb claim more than takes care of that and for a horse that looks to be coming back to some kind of form, a mark effectively 11lbs lower than when she was running and winning at this time last year might prove lenient.

She was only a neck and a half length off the winner when finishing third over this trip at Newcastle last time out, 10 days ago, and with the runner-up of that race, Liberal Angel, winning yesterday afternoon, then a 3/1 BOG bet on Imaginary World might not be the worst decision you make today.

Bonds Gift also trades at around the 3/1 BOG mark and she's interesting here, coming off a break of almost 23 weeks and returning to turf after running well on the Wolverhampton Tapeta, where she finished as runner-up in back to back 7f handicaps.

Those races have both produced quite a few winners and with Geoffrey Oldroyd's yard looking like sparking back to life after a couple of recent winners, Bonds Gift is a decent foil to the main selection in what looks a weak contest.

*

3.10 Newbury :

I know that Withernsea could only manage to finish fifth at York last time out, but he had been hampered in the final furlong and once switched out, he stayed on well.  He's likely to be happier here today, with the recent rain, as both his career wins have the word soft in the official going.

A common theme in his recent outings is that he tends to get caught in traffic and had I been writing this yesterday, I'd probably not have selected him for a 16-runner race, but 7 don't go and he's more likely to be able to avoid trouble on thew wide Newbury track with only 8 rivals to contend with. The softer the better for Withernsea, who is currently a 7/2 BOG shot.

The one he'll need to beat, though, is likely to be Mujassam, who represents an in-form trainer and jockey, who both have excellent records on this track. This lightly raced 3yr old son of Kyllachy won his maiden here at Newbury over 6.5f on soft ground, so the track shouldn't throw up any surprises for him today, nor should the trip at just a half furlong longer than that previous visit to the course.

Today's trip is the same as when completing a rather facile 8 lengths win at Salisbury last time out. Admittedly, this is a stronger race and he's up in weight, but he really could have won by as far as he wanted to that day and the horse that was last home of the eight runners, beaten by almost 17 lengths, Harlequin Striker, was a winner at Ffos Las on Thursday. There's plenty more to come from Mujassam, who can be backed at 100/30 BOG this morning.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Imaginary World / Mujassam @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : betVictor)
Imaginary World / Withernsea @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Paddy)
Bonds Gift / Mujassam @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : SkyBet)
Bonds Gift / Withernsea @ 17.77/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 1st August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 1st August 2015

One winner paired with a runner-up from our two races yesterday wasn't quite enough to give us a profitable day to end July with.

Powderonthebonnet was well supported at Bangor (11/10 from 5/2) and the 7 yr old gelding stayed on well to assert himself in the closing stages to win by 2 lengths, with our other runner, Amuse Me, a good 21 lengths back in 4th place.

But there was only my personal pride at stake there anyway, as our bet had floundered in Goodwood's opening race, as 2nd and 5th was the best I could get.

Connecticut weakened late on and was beaten by 5.5 lengths, whilst 15/8 favourite The Corsican didn't (in my opinion) really do himself justice. Poor tactics or bad luck in running? Maybe both, but give Frankie Dettori a lead with a furlong to run in a festival race and he's hard to beat, as we and Jim Crowley got reminded yesterday!

Friday's results were as follows:

The Corsican : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Connecticut : 5th at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
----------------------------------------------------
Powderonthebonnet : WON at 11/10 (adv 5/2)
Amuse Me : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)

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Results to date:
640 winning selections from 2257 = 28.36%
202 winning bets in 585 days = 34.53%

Stakes: 1169.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +121.28pts (+10.37% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturdays are always tough, but I'm hoping to start the month off with the winners of...

2.25 Thirsk :

With 13 winners from 29 runners over the last fortnight, any Roger Varian runner has to be considered for backing at the moment and when you recall his excellent figures in flat handicaps and also with handicap debutants, it's easy to see why I like Alizoom here.

He has improved in each of his four runs to date, culminating in a near 4 length win at Windsor almost 3 weeks ago. Based on that run, an opening mark of 79 doesn't look too punitive and with more than useful 3lb claimer Shane Gray in the saddle to ease the burden, it's Alizoom here for me at 15/8 BOG.

As a backup, I'm inclined to go with Astley Hall now that Richter Scale doesn't go. He was narrowly beaten in a similar nursery at York a week ago when beating the favourite that day and the re-opposing Ravenhoe by a good 5 lengths. It's not the greatest form in the world, but it's probably the best on offer here after Alizoom, so for that reason, Plan B is Astley Hall at 11/4 BOG.

*

2.55 Doncaster :

Where it could pay to side with a pair of last time out winners.

As above, Master Of Speed is of interest, with him being trained by Roger Varian and making his handicap debut. He defied a 227-day layoff to in at Sandown by 1.5 lengths over 1m2f seven weeks ago and is of interest again now that he steps up in trip to 1m4f, as his yard also do really well with handicap debutants stepping up in trip.

I won't bore you with all the stats about the above facts, but needless to say, they do point to a good run from Master of Speed at 9/4 BOG.

And his most likely opponent should be Lilian Baylis, whose trainer Luca Cumani is also in fine form and has a very good record when stepping his unexposed runners up in trip, and with him having a good record here at this track, this makes this 3 yr old filly a major player here for me.

She only just got home late on over 1m2f last time out and looked to be crying out for further, which she ill of course get today and those Cumani stats in Donny handicaps? 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 29.5pts (+31.4% ROI) since 2008, making Lilian Baylis very attractive here at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Alizoom / Master Of Speed @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Coral)
Alizoom / Lilian Baylis @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Coral)
Astley Hall / Master Of Speed @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Astley Hall / Lilian Baylis @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)

Double Dutch, 23rd July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd July 2015

It's not often you see the top two in the market of an 8-runner handicap be the last two home, but it happened yesterday and I'd picked/backed for the Doubles!

So, after that Bath race we were done for the day, although the contest at Sandown offered an opportunity for me to save face and salvage a bit of pride. The task was made harder by my preferred option, Wekeyll, being withdrawn, but American Artist's strong finish under a William Buick drive at least meant I found one winner, as...

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Strictly The One : 7th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Senor George : 8th at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
American Artist : WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Wekeyll : N/R (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
632 winning selections from 2225 = 28.40%
201 winning bets in 577 days = 34.84%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1153.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +132.81pts (+11.51% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

No winners on Tuesday and one on Wednesday, we now seek a pair from these on Thursday evening...

7.05 Newbury :

Andrew Balding does really well with his handicap debutants and his unexposed 3yo handicappers also have a good record and Bishops Leap looks likely to be his next winner  from those categories. He never raced as a 2yr old and made his debut at Windsor just over 7 weeks ago over today's 1m2f trip, finishing a very creditable third of ten and only 2 lengths off the pace.

The winner and the runner-up have both won since, as did Bishops Leap on his only other run, winning over today's trip at Lingfield in late June. His opening handicap mark of 80 isn't a gimme, but it's a level he should be able to run to quite easily and if he does, then he has an excellent chance at 9/4 BOG (Coral).

Royal Toast, on the other hand, will want to play a part too and the 5/2 BOG on offer from Bet365 might be a little "big" about a horse who has been placed in both handicap runs to date. He was third and beaten by 5 lengths at Goodwood in a Class 5 contest five weeks ago, but ran far better next/last time out, finishing third again, but only by less than 2 lengths.

And that was after stepping up two classes to C3 and dropping down in trip. He was staying on well at the end comiong from off a quick pace and the step back up to 1m2f allied to a drop in class makes Royal Toast a big danger/player here tonight for me.

*

7.55 Doncaster :

Margaret's Mission arrives here on top form having rattled up a hat-trick of handicap wins over a mile recently. She has won all three of her races with today's jockey and comes here as the only previous course winner. She acts perfectly well on this quicker ground and now drops down in trip in a bid to combat a rise in weight and a step up in class. If in the same mood as last seen a fortnight, she'll take all the beating at 7/2 BOG.

And the one who might do that is Aljafer, who is going the opposite way ie coming down in class to meet her. She won her maiden on her second and final run of last season and has made the frame in all four subsequent handicap contests. Her latest effort at Newmarket almost a fortnight ago was probably her best to date and she seems to be progressing well.

She's more experienced at the 7f trip than Margaret's Mission and the level achieved in finshing fourth LTO, beaten by just 2.25L in a £16,000 Class 2 contest is every bit as good as the other horse's wins. MuffriHa was only a length or so ahead that day and she herself has since won by four lengths. Aljafer is priced at 5/2 BOG to follow suit.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Bishops Leap / Aljafer @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Hills)
Bishops Leap / Margaret's Mission @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Coral)
Royal Toast / Aljafer @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Hills)
Royal Toast / Margaret's Mission @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair)

Double Dutch, 9th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th July 2015

Back to back doubles have edged us closer to the 200 winner milestone after successes at both Catterick and Kempton yesterday.

Hot Spice was withdrawn from the first race shortly after I'd published my blog after his handlers decided (as I feared they might!) that the going wasn't conducive to a good run. He now runs today in the 5.40 Doncaster.

This meant that not only did we now only have one runner at Catterick, but that our odds were reduced by 20% to 2.8/1. As it happens, High Secret shrugged off the burden of top weight to win a shade cosily by just over two lengths at a well-backed 13/8.

We then had a long wait until the last race at Kempton, but it was worth the wait, as Acolyte made all and hung on to win by 1.25 lengths with our other runner Spring Fling 4 lengths further back in 4th place.

We picked up two bonuses in that race, Acolyte's drift out to 3/1 boosted our payout and the withdrawal of Hot Spice meant we also got paid on a single on Acolyte, all of which led to us making almost as much as we would have done pre-Rule 4.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

High Secret : WON at 13/8 (adv 7/2 = 14/5 after R4)
Hot Spice : non-runner (adv 10/3)
----------------------------------------------------
Acolyte : WON at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Spring Fling : 4th at 11/8 (adv 5/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
620 winning selections from 2180 = 28.44%
197 winning bets in 565 days = 34.88%

Stakes: 1129.50pts
Returns: 1257.84pts
P/L : +128.34pts (+11.36% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's hat-trick contenders are as follows...

5.10 Doncaster :

Sleeping Apache has been running really well this season and was a winner on his yearly reappearance at Pontefract in April. Since then he has finished as runner-up in each of his three starts and never beaten by far. The latest of those runs came off today's mark back at Pontefract ten days ago when he was nailed on the line despite coming from a supposedly unfavourable draw.

A similar level of performance could well be enough to win what looks a slightly weaker affair here and it should be noted he was 5 lengths clear of the third placed horse and with today's jockey taking 7lbs off, Sleeping Apache could be a decent proposition at 7/2 BOG. If, however, he has to settle for second best once again, the one likeliest to beat him is...

...the lightly raced 3 yr old handicap debutant Balliol, who comes here off the back of a good win at Windsor 12 days ago on only his second outing. He made all that day without being pushed and could easily have won by much further than the 2.25 lengths margin he achieved. His only other run and debut saw him run well, if a little green at Bath a fortnight earlier, beaten by 3.5 lengths into 4th place.

Only the winner and the third place horse from that bath race have run since, but both have won and this franking of the form, allied to his trainer's excellent record with handicap debutants plus his handy 5lb weight for age allowance make Balliol my pick here at 10/3 BOG with Coral.

*

5.30 Newmarket :

Estidhkaar won two Group 2 contests last yeart and whilst not quite hitting those heights this year, was a decent runner-up in the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal reappearance back in April, when only going down by a neck to Muhaarar. The quality of his run in that Gr3 Grrenham run was highlighted just three weeks ago when Muhaarar won a very comfotable winner of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot.

Estidhkaar's own subsequent one was a disappointment, it has to be said. Something wasn't right on the day as he was 14th of 18 in the Guineas and that possibly explains his recent 10-week layoff. This, of course, whilst a good race, is a far weaker affair than both of the contests he has faced this season and could well be the ideal springboard to a late summer flourish. If you like him, he's 15/8 BOG at the moment.

Bossy Guest, on the other hand, has been a revelation this season. He won a valuable Class2 contest on his reappearance in mid-April here at Newmarket, before running a fantastic 4th at a big price in the 2,000 Guineas, beaten by only 3.5 lengths and some 8.5 lengths ahead of Estidhkaar.

He then found 7f at Ascot a little too sharp for him next/last time out when outpaced in the Jersey Stakes three weeks ago. He was, however, doing his best work at the finish, staying on strongly to take the bronze medal in the closing strides. A step back up to a mile should suit him better and I think Bossy Guest has an excellent chance at 11/4 BOG today

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Balliol / Estidhkaar @ 10.92/1 (10/3 & 7/4 : Coral)
Balliol / Bossy Guest @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : Coral)
Sleeping Apache / Estidhkaar @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Betfred, SkyBet & ToteSport)
Sleeping Apache / Bossy Guest @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 3rd July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd July 2015

I got the finishing order of our runners right in both races yesterday, but found no winners. No winners means no doubles and ultimately no payout!

IT Guru beat Priory as expected, but I was surprised to see 3.5 lengths and 2 places between them as IT Guru finished as runner-up in a race he threw away by running really wide off the final bend.

He finished strongly but had forfeited the lead with the poor turn and eventually went down by three parts of a length.

It was then a case of second and third at Perth, but this wasn't close, nor were we unlucky. Honourable gent beat Moonlight Maggie by a good 9 lengths, but he in turn was 4.5 lengths behind a well backed winner, Bunclody who attracted heavy support all day and the money was (on this occasion!) proven right.

Thursday's results were as follows:

IT Guru : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 6/4)
Priory : 4th at 3/1 (adv 7/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Honourable Gent : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Moonlight Maggie : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 9/4)

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Results to date:
615 winning selections from 2162 = 28.45%
195 winning bets in 560 days = 34.82%

Stakes: 1119.50pts
Returns: 1243.19pts
P/L : +123.69pts (+11.05% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Friday's selections are as follows...

3.45 Newton Abbot :

More Bucks showed considerable promise over hurdles, finishing third three times in four outings before winning here at Newton Abbot last time out. That was a little over five weeks ago when turning over the 10/11 fav Towering, who turned back out and won on Wednesday. He's an early switcher to chasing and is very interesting off the same mark as that LTO win.

Breeding (by Presenting) suggests he'll make for a decent chaser at Class 2/3 over trips of 2m3f to 3m3f and it makes sense now to switch to fences whilst in good form and still on the rise. Trainer and jockey both have excellent records here at this Devon venue and the only possible negative for More Bucks is if too much rain arrives. If the ground isn't affected too badly, then he looks to be in with a shout at 3/1 BOG.

The one to beat, though, is likely to be Gone Too Far, who was a comfortable winner by 6 lengths over fences at Uttoxeter last time out, three weeks ago. He was three lengths clear and pulling away approaching the last when his nearest rival fell, handing him an easy run to the line and if driven to a finish he would probably have won by further.

He has run well on ground with some cut to it in the past and has a good record with today's rider and I just think the benefit of having had a recent winning run over fences just tips the balance in favour of Gone Too Far at 9/4 BOG today, but I'd watch More Bucks, as he will win races over fences.

*

4.10 Doncaster:

It will probably pay to side with a pair of unexposed 3yr olds both expected to improve for a step up in trip today.  Frenzified makes just her 6th start today and although beaten into third place on her handicap debut at Nottingham three weeks ago, had already won over 1m2f in her previous outing at Salisbury.

By Yeats out of Librettista suggests both speed and stamina and I'd expect her to improve for a step up in trip, especially considering she's bottom weight here, getting at least 5lbs from everyone and up to 19lbs from the top weight, Kallisha. Trainer Luca Cumani does very well here with his 3 to 5 yr old non-sprinters and Frenzified has a great chance here at 9/4 BOG.

The one she's likely to have to conquer, though, is the very lightly raced filly Distain. Beaten by just  a length and a half at Ascot on debut in early May over 1m2f, finishing 3 lengths and 2 places ahead of Winter Serenade who is 2 from 2 (both at today's trip) since that run.

Distain then ran at Redcar just over five weeks ago and whilst it has been suggested that there wasn't much to beat that day, she did her job and waited until the final furlong to quickly put the race to bed, easing clear and then easing down to win by almost 4 lengths. You can only beat what you're faced with and she's an interesting handicap debutante here at 7/4 BOG off what looks a reasonable opening mark of 80.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Gone Too Far / Distain @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
Gone Too Far / Frenzified @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
More Bucks / Distain @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
More Bucks / Frenzified @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Hills)

Double Dutch, 6th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th June 2015

Friday started really well for us and almost perfect for me personally. I'd advised Shear Rock as a winner at 11/4 elsewhere and I'd backed Bowie at 13/2 E/W as a saver, expecting a big run from him and with the former beating the latter by just a neck with the nearest challenger a further 6 lengths back, it was the dream start.

Exotic backers were rewarded with a forecast that paid just over 13/2 and for the double, we were able to carry a 5/2 win into leg 2, which is where things went unfortunately awry.

Escrick didn't come on for an earlier run and was well beaten by about 8 lengths, ahead of just one other runner. My Call, on the other hand, gave it a decent shot and ran her own race. She didn't have the final burst needed and could only finish secoind to a resurgent Links Drive Lady, who will have surprised many by winning at 25/1!

Friday's results were as follows:

Shear Rock : WON at 11/10 (adv 5/2)
Bowie : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 13/2)
A £1 forecast paid £7.58 here...
----------------------------------------------------
My Call : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Escrick : u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
592 winning selections from 2074 = 28.55%
187 winning bets in 537 days = 34.89%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1073.50pts
Returns: 1176.92pts

P/L : +103.42pts (+9.63% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last shot of the week now and Saturdays are notoriously tough...

3.05 Doncaster:

Roger Varian has a good record here at Doncaster and will look to Igider to return to winning ways here at 15/8 BOG today. He was a winner on his final run of last season and looked like a horse destined for better things. He reappeared at Hamilton three weeks ago and was pretty soundly beaten. We were advised by Mr Varian that the horse doesn't go well fresh, so we'll expect more today.

It should also be noted that the run at Hamilton was his first after 333 days, his first at today's 1m4f trip and he was up two grades. A drop back in class and the benefit of that outing three weeks ago should help matters today, where Igider will need to be on his game to see off I'm Harry, who in complete contrast returned to action 17 days ago for the first time in over 10 months and won over 1m3.5f by 8 lengths at Lingfield on Good ground (not A/W!).

It was an effortless run that day, no whip required and the margin of victory could have been huge had he been driven/ridden to a finish. He has now finished 111221 in his last six starts and despite a 9lb rise for that hands and heels win, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see I'm Harry win again at 11/4 BOG.

*

3.25 Musselburgh:

Sometimes you spot something that looks a bit unusual on the racecards, and today I've spotted a Sir Michael Stoute runner at Musselburgh in the form of the 7/2 BOG Indelible Ink and with such beasts being as common as an honest FIFA delegate, I had to look closer!

It turns out that despite having had almost 5,500 runners in an illustrious and long career, just five have come to Musselburgh! Altaayil was a runner-up here last October and prior to that, the previous Stoute runner here ran at this very meeting in 2009! That said, he has two winners and two placers from the five, so it's not form keeping him away.

His runners are in good nick (9/25 in the last two weeks) and Indelible Ink was knocking on the door, finishing as runner-up in each of his last two of three runs last season. He looked like he needed the run and a longer trip when reappearing at Sandown 16 days ago after an eight month break and Indelible Ink gets both requests fulfilled here.

The more likely winner for me, though, is Yorkidding at 11/4 BOG. This likeable 3 yr old filly has really come on this season since stepping up in trip and being partnered with Silvestre de Sousa, finishing 211 so far in three runs. Their only defeat was a staying-on 0.75L loss after a 158-day absence, but sahe has stepped up to win at 1m4f and 1m6f since.

She's up 4lbs for that last win, but does drop back 600yds in trip to 1m4f where she won two starts ago. She's 2/3 on good to firm ground and 2/2 going right handed and with conditions set to suit, Yorkidding would be my pick here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Igider / Yorkidding @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power & BetVictor)
Igider / Indelible Ink @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : generally)
I'm Harry / Yorkidding @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Hills)
I'm Harry / Indelible Ink @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Coral)

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2015

Landing Night was excellent at Catterick on Friday, enabling us to land a hat-trick of wins this week for SotD.

He was in no rush to show his hand and spent the first half of the race at the back of the field, but looked effortless as he made his way to the head of affairs with around a furlong to run.

He was then asked to go and win and he'd fairly quickly got the race wrapped up, easing slightly once the job was done, winning even more comfortably than the bare result suggested.

The icing on the came when we absolutely battered the SP again, even a 10p Rule 4 deduction couldn't hide the fact we'd got a great price. Getting paid out at 2.7/1 after the deduction meant that we received 325% of the final 5/6 SP.

It has been a really good week so far and I've love to round it off with a 4-timer via Saturday's...

3.40 Doncaster:

A Class 3 contest over 10.5f on good to firm ground where Charlie Appleby's Subcontinent seeks a fourth win in 5 starts at 100/30 BOG.

Charlie hasn't actually sent that many runners to Town Moor, but those that have come here in the past and been priced at 8/1 or shorter have won 8 of 38 (21.1% SR) for 9.3pts (+24.5% ROI) profit and he's 2/7 for 7.2pts here this year alone.

Subcontinent is by Dubawi, one of the sires I follow and since 2010 the Dubawi progeny are 127/638 (19.9% SR) for 104.7pts (+16.4% ROI) profit when priced at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 over trips of 7f to 2m.

More recently and more relevant to today's contest, those offspring are 48/236 (20.3% SR) for 55.8pts (+23.6% ROI) over trips of 1m to 1m5f at odds of 5/2 to 15/2 since the start of the 2012 campaign.

Subcontinent was a reasonable 4th on debut less than 9 months ago and then made the frame in three consecutive defeats.

After those three placed efforts he landed a hat-trick of wins, before struggling last time out. In his defence, he really didn't handle the good to soft ground at Haydock a fortnight ago, but race conditions look to be in his favour today, because...

...he's 1 from 1 at Doncaster, which was a course and distance success on good to firm ground three starts ago. He's 2 from 3 on good to firm ground and 2 from 2 at 10/10.5 furlongs. He's 1 from 1 under James Doyle (that prior C&D win) and has won three of his four starts in fields of 6 or fewer runners : the losing run being his debut.

I'm happy to look beyond that last outing and with conditions in his favour here today, Subcontinent could easily get back to winning ways and if he does, then I'll be heading straight back to Hills to cash in my my 100/30 BOG ticket. Get on that, if you can, otherwise 3/1 BOG is the generally available offering, as you'll see by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.40 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 16th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th May 2015

After a couple of good days, we were foiled a hat-trick in the last race of the day at Hamilton.

Earlier, Flying Fantasy had won after drifting out to 9/4, with Cape Xenia putting in a really good run at 6/1 and only failing by a nose to land us yet another forecast.

This meant a long wait to see if we could complete the double, but Sleeping Apache was beaten into second place by Economic Crisi who made all to deny us a nice 10.38/1 double.

Friday's results were as follows:

Flying Fantasy : WON at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Cape Xenia : 3rd at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Sleeping Apache : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Ambitious Icarus : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
577 winning selections from 2010 = 28.71%
181 winning bets in 521 days = 34.74%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1041.50pts
Returns: 1142.47pts

P/L : +100.97pts (+9.69% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This week's last picks are as follows...

3.30 Bangor:

Mor Brook was 3rd in a bumper on debut and then third in two hurdles contests earning him a mark of 101 for his handicap debut last time out, but rather than take a handicap hurdle, he was immediately sent chasing and exploited the low mark with a win over course and distance here a fortnight ago. He looked a far better prospect than a 101-rated horse that day and had the race won from a long way out.

He's up 8lbs today and I'm not convinced that's enough. The third placed horse was 9.5 lengths back that day and has run since, improving to be a 5 length runner-up and there's every possibility that Mor Brook would and should come on for having had that first run over fences and in a weak contest, he's the one I'd look to first at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports.

In opposition, the 10yr old Owen Glendower is interesting, he returned to action at Southwell a month ago, after a break of 16 months off the track and he ran really well that day and was still in contention when falling three out. He showed no ill effects from the fall when winning at Uttoxeter 10 days ago, earning himself a new mark of 114, which looks lenient based on his pre-break form.

Prior to the time off track, he had run, won and also been placed a couple of times of a mark of 133 over fences, including a third placed finish at the Cheltenham Festival. Any sign of a return to past glories would make Owen Glendower massively overpriced at Hills' 9/2 BOG, but time will, of course, be the judge of that!

*

7.45 Doncaster:

The in-form James Doyle rides the unbeaten Always Smile here for Saeed bin Suroor (20%+ SR at the track) for her handicap & turf debut and with wins on two different surfaces to date, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that she'll take to turf readily and go on to secure a hat-trick. The one mile trip should pose no problems after wins at 6f and 8.5f so far.

Always Smile is a half-sister to 1,000 Guineas placer and fifth in the Oaks Ihtimal, suggesting that she could well be a decent miler and in the absence of main threat Darshini, I'd expect her her to take this at 9/4 BOG.

There are a couple of LTO runners in opposition here, but as an alternative to the main selection, I'm going with Marco Botti's top weighted Puissant, who is better than the bare result of 5th place last time out would suggest. He improved each time as a 2yr old (821), before taking six months off.

On his return a month ago, he went from winning a 1m Class 5 maiden to tackling the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1m1f at Newmarket : a bit of a leap there and although he was fifth on that occasion, had shown plenty of promise for much of the race, before being hampered just over a furlong out. Don't get me wrong, he was never going to win, but might well have got closer.

Not only should Puissant come on for the run, this is a major drop in class and the experience of the big race could be the key here and if that's the case, 9/2 BOG could be generous come race-time.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mor Brook / Always Smile @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Mor Brook / Puissant @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Betfair Sports)
Owen Glendower / Always Smile @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Bet365 & Hills)
Owen Glendower / Puissant @ 26.50/1 (4/1 & 9/2 : Betfair Sports)

Double Dutch, 2nd May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 2nd May 2015

Friday was a poor way to start the new month, if truth be told. Three of four horses in the frame, but no winners and no winners means no profits!

Bold Runner's 3rd place finish was the best I could manage at Lingfield, after he was hampered on the final bend. It probably didn't stop him from winning if I'm honest, but he would have been closer than he was.

We then had second and third in our "dead rubber" at Bangor with Stratford Stroller's half length defeat proving to be my best pick of the day on a day where I struggled with everything I picked away from Double Dutch!

I should also hold my hands up and say I got it wrong with the winner, who clearly didn't mind running off the back of a 2yr absence, as he stayed on well to win.

Not my best day this year, that's for sure!

Friday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Bold Runner: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Tilstarr: 6th at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Stratford Stroller: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Threapwood: 3rd at 9/2 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
562 winning selections from 1964 = 28.62%
176 winning bets in 509 days = 34.58%

Stakes: 1017.50pts
Returns: 1114.54pts

P/L : +97.04pts (+9.54% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturdays are usually hyper competitive, but we should go well with......

4.05 Goodwood:

Provenance has an excellent pedigree and progressed well in her first season, winning 3 times from 5 efforts at 7f/1m, including C3 handicaps at Haydock and Sandown. She was beaten by less than 2 lengths in third place in a 1m listed race at Newmarket before not quite seeing out 1m2f in another Listed event (5th, beaten by 8L). Further progression is expected this year and the drop back to a mile should bring another win at 2/1 BOG.

She's owned by Cheveley Park, as is her main rival Tigrilla who had a good debut season as a 2yr old, including a win at Listed company in Deauville, France before a couple of excellent runs in Group races at Newmarket (beaten by 3.5 L at Gr2) and also back at Deauville, where she was only beaten by a length in a Group 3 race on her first effort over a mile. She's sure to come on again this season and with this representing an easier race than last time, she has every chance at 9/4 BOG.

*

5.10 Doncaster:

Luca Cumani's horses are going well at the moment with a 4/10 record in the past week and also has a good record on this track, including the winner of this race last year, Silk Sari, who won here after arriving with a 1/4 record like today's representative Comedy King. CK showed signs of early promise in landing a 1m2f maiden, beating 10 rivals in the process. The runner-up from that day hasn't raced since, but each of the next 7 horses have all won since, clocking up 11 wins and 10 places from 44 runs between them.

Comedy King has been gelded since his last run and this allied to the step up in trip is expected to bring about further improvement and if that's proven to be the case, he stands a verry good chance of landing this at 2/1 BOG, probably at the main expense of Sheriff of Nawton who has already proved he stays the full mile and a half and also has winning form here at Doncaster this season.

Sheriff of Nawton was 2nd and 3rd in back to back 1m4f handicaps at Wolverhampton in February as a warm up for his turf campaign, which he opened with a comfortable 6 lengths victory here at Doncaster over 1m 2.5f at the end of March, before a narrow defeat at Newcastle three weeks ago. He's clearly in good heart and has to be respected on his 2015 form so far and at 4/1 BOG might be a little overpriced.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Provenance / Comedy King @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Paddy, Coral & Betfair SB)
Provenance / Sheriff of Nawton @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Tigrilla/ Comedy King @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Paddy & Coral)
Tigrilla/ Sheriff of Nawton @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Bet365)

Double Dutch, 25th April 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 25th April 2015

Wins for Waady and Flugzeug made for a pleasant Friday afternoon as they combined to form a useful near-8/1 double and with Thahab also making the frame in Race 1, it was an enjoyable afternoon in the sun.

Friday's results were as follows:

Waady: WON at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Thahab: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Flugzeug: WON at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Little Roxy: fell at 9/2 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
556 winning selections from 1941 = 28.65%
174 winning bets in 503 days = 34.59%

Stakes: 1005.50pts
Returns: 1108.51pts

P/L : +103.01pts (+10.24% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

As we now hover precariously above the 100pts & 10% ROI markers, we could do with some winners from these on Friday....

4.00 Ripon:

I don't think there's a great deal between Pinzolo (5/2 BOG) and Clever Cookie (4/1 BOG) here today on ability and the beauty of the Double Dutch is that we can back both!

Pinzolo has some good performances/results behind him from last season in Listed company on quick ground and was an easy winner on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield over this trip in March. He was eased down once victory was assured and still won by three lengths. That was a drop back to today's Class 2 level, at which he is now 2 from 2. Going conditions and trip hold no fears for Pinzolo and his yard remain in form and he's their only runner at Ripon today and someone has to pay for the horsebox!

Clever Cookie is probably (marginally) my reserve pick. There's no doubting his ability, versatility and stamina, he has won races from 1m 2.5f to 1m6f, he has won bumpers at 2m and 2m1f and has won over hurdles at 2m to 2m 2f, including a Grade 2 win last year.

He was excellent last year winning 6 of 10 races, but the doubts I have over him are that he might need the run after a 225 day break and that he's probably better at further than 1m 4f. That said, there's a side of me saying that this drop in trip might just be perfect as a pipe opener.

*

4.20 Limerick:

A decent Listed contest here and the two main protagonists would probably have been shorter in the market, had they not both been making their seasonal debuts. That said, none of their five rivals have been particularly impressive this season themselves and there's a school of thought that the cream will always rise to the top!

Answered heads the weights and the market, which some might find strange as he's never run beyond 1m 2f, but his reported targets for this year are a longer distances, so you can expect him to handle this step up in trip. Just the four starts to date, he beat Onenightidreamed on debut in March 2014 and the latter went on to win this year's Irish Lincoln.

Answered then was beaten by five lengths but not disgraced in two Grade 3 events before winning a Listed event at Leopardstown next/last time out. That win came off a break of 167 days, so maybe he'll be fine today after being rested for 182 days. He can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG, but...

...I think I prefer Roheryn at 7/2 BOG here. he's proven at the trip, having competed at this distance twice last summer at Leopardstown, initially winning a Listed race before going down by just half a length in a Grade 3 contest. Since then she was beaten by less than five lengths in a Group 2 contest and she seemed to handle the Good to Firm ground well enough, she just wasn't quite good enough for the class she raced in.

The drop back in class is sure to help and it's worth pointing out that the two horses ahead of her last time out were Group 1 performers anyway. Roheryn looks to have the makings of a decent Group standard filly and she would be my pick here today, despite not having raced for over seven months.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Pinzolo / Answered @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Pinzolo / Roheryn @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Clever Cookie / Answered @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Clever Cookie / Roheryn @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Betfred & Totesport)

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Hmmmm, for the second day running, our horse finished third, wasn't beaten by far and I wasn't 100% happy with the jockey's performance. For recent recruits to the SotD cause, I must stress this isn't me talking through my pocket : it's very rare that I'm critical of the lads who risk their necks every day.

Son of Suzie proved he gets 3m3f despite being outpaced in the mid-section of the race and was staying on stoutly from the penultimate hurdle, quickly making ground on the leading pair. The leaders were clearly tiring and wandering around and for some inexplicable reason, our jockey decided to steer to the right and straight into trafiic.

Momentum was lost as he was snatched up and switched back out towards the rail, where he should have gone initially. Did it cost us the race? Possibly. We'll never know, but he was beaten by less than 2 lengths, so draw your own conclusions.

Saturday is my last pick of the week and I've selected one in the...

7.30 Doncaster:

Where Luca Cumani drops Ajman Bridge down in class for the Class 3, 10.5f handicap as his reintroduction to racing after a break of some eight months since he was last seen at York. And those, like me, who want to back him can do so at 7/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Signor Cumani has an excellent record here on Town Moor and since 2008, 29 of his 136 runners (21.3% SR) have been winning, generating level stakes profits of 27.8pts at an ROI of 20.4%. These figures can be broken down as follows (in order of sample size)...

Running over 7 to 14.5 furlongs : 26/129 = 23% SR for 37.8pts (+30% ROI)
Priced at 6/4 to 10/1 : 26/102 = 25.5% SR for 56.3pts (+55.2% ROI)
Handicap runners : 21/88 = 23.8% SR for 33.5pts (+38% ROI)
Class 3/4 runners : 19/60 = 31.7% SR for 42.2pts (+70.4% ROI).

So, as you can see, plenty of profitable Cumani angles here at Donny. You can mix and match to your heart's content, but one simple way is to put them all together to see that in 7f to 14.5f handicaps at 10/1 or shorter, the record reads 21/73 (28.8% SR) for 48.5pts (+66.4% ROI) and at Class 3/4 level 17/40 (42.5% SR) for 53.9pts (+134.8% ROI).

Luca is also very good at dropping horses down in grade to eke more out of them and his class droppers are 34/126 (27% SR) for 94.8pts (+75.3% ROI) since the start of 2010.

Those dropping down to today's Class 3 level are 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 33.1 pts (+97.3% ROI), whilst those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 30/89 (33.7% SR) for 62.6pts (+70.3% ROI).

When I was collating the figures about class droppers, something came to me. It might already be out there, so forgive me if this isn't new to you, but with Ajman Bridge's 8 month layoff in mind, I began to wonder if certain trainers did well with horses dropping in class off the back of a long break. That's now my home work for Sunday!

But I can tell you that when Luca Cumani has dropped a horse in class after a break of over 6 months, 7 of 15 (46.7% SR) have won and have also made 46.3pts profit at an ROI of 308.4%. Hmmm, interesting!

Regular readers will also know that I do like to keep an eye on certain stallions and their progeny and Ajman Bridge is by Dubawi, one of my Flat/All-Weather staples. I like to find trainers or stallions I can back blindly and make money without taxing the brain too much: the old maximum reward for minimum effort scenario.

Anyway I digress, back to Dubawi... 562 /3290 are the figures from his offspring to date, an impressive 17.1% strike rate yielding 544.6pts profit at a ROI of 16.6%. That's basically £1 profit from every £6 wagered, just for looking for the name Dubawi! Here at Doncaster, his "babies" are 16/94 (17% SR) for 24.4pts (+26% ROI) whilst on the Flat in general they are 340/2161 (15.7% SR) for 430.2pts (+19.9% ROI)

With such a massive sample size, you could spend hours (trust me! 😀 ) looking at/for angles, so I'll leave you with a simple one...

...back all Dubawi offspring priced at 2/1 to 12/1 in Flat handicaps over trips of 1 to 2 miles. This has produced 94 winners from 498 runners, an 18.9% strike rate producing 178.6pts (+35.9% ROI) profits.

Betfair Sportsbook are currently best priced with 7/2 BOG about Ajman Bridge with Ladbrokes also offering the same, but they don't go BOG until 9.00am. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 28th February 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th February 2015

Yesterday was one of those strange and occasional winning whilst losing days we sometimes have here on DD. Confused? Let me explain.

We had a non-runner in race 1, which means that two of our four doubles just revert to singles on the selections in race 2. We got the winners in race 2, but as it only paid 2/1, we have a 0.5pts loss, unless we got the winner in race 1 to make a double.

As it was, Gios Last was a 2/1 winner (our other runner was 2nd, so we got a small bonus exacta/forecast), but 10 minutes earlier Stratefic heights had been caught virtually on the line to deny us an 11/1 payout, leaving us with that small loss of 0.5pts.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Strategic Heights : 2nd at 5/4 (adv 3/1)
Majestic Timeline : non-runner (adv 2/1)
------------------------------------------
Gios Last : WON at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Nouvelle Ere : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
(The exacta paid out at 6.8/1 here)

Results to date:
503 winning selections from 1756 = 28.64%
158 winning bets in 455 days = 34.73%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 909.50pts
Returns: 1012.32pts

P/L : +102.82pts (+11.31% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturday is our last opportunity of the week/month, so hopefully we can continue our recent decent form with these...

3.10 Doncaster:

I have mentioned more than once recently about the form of Messrs Pipe and Scudamore as individuals and as a team and Batavir (15/8 BOG) looks a very likely candidate for yet another win for this in-form partnership. The horse was a good performer in the typically soft courses used in France before making a UK debut three months ago at Leicester.

He was third that day, but has improved with each run, winning both his subsequent 2 outings. He is raised 7lbs on his hat-trick bid, but there's probably still more to come from him. He idled somewhat once leading last time out, but still won with almost three lengths to spare. It is expected/hoped that the first-time cheekpieces will help to keep Batavir at his work today.

The one he'll need to beat will probably be Call The Cops who caught the eye on his handicap debut last time out. He might well have only finished fourth of eight that day, but the way he stayed on and finished strongly was the thing to take from that race. he looked like a stayer in the making and I'd expect today's step up to three miles to suit him well here.

He was just a length and a quarter behind Royal Regatta (runs in the 1.25 Newbury today) and the latter has won twice since and Call The Cops is currently 100/30 BOG with Paddy Power to follow suit.

*

4.40 Lingfield:

The Yank is sure to be popular on his bid to land a February 4-timer, but a further hike in weight and a drop to a sharper trip makes him very susceptible to another defeat by Thomas Blossom who is priced up at 5/2 BOG for his attempt to repeat his victory over The Yank from 8 weeks ago. He won by two and a quarter lengths that day over today's trip and h'es now 9lbs better off, making him (in my opinion, at least!) a better option.

Thomas Blossom is 3113 over today's trip with both defeats being by just half a length and that includes a narrow loss here on his only previous visit to Lingfield, when beaten by Planetoid who is 112 since that run and only beaten narrowly himself here last time out.

My second pick here is going to be the hat-trick seeking Precision Five who is 4/10 here at Lingfield with three further placed efforts. She's a 3-time winner over 1m2f, a trip where most of her running has been done, but I'd expect her to be just as potent over today's 1m4f, especially if you look at her last outing when she was pretty comfortable in victory over 1m5.5f at Chelmsford almost four weeks ago.

Precision Five has only been raised 3lbs for that win, but this represents a drop in class and if she runs like she did at the higher grade last time out, then she has every chance at 15/8 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Batvir / Precision Five @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : BetVictor & Coral)
Batavir / Thomas Blossom @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : BetVictor, Coral & Hills)
Call The Cops / Precision Five @ 11.46/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Call The Cops / Thomas Blossom @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : Paddy Power)

Sat TV Trends: 28th Feb 2015

We’ve had better LIVE Saturday C4 race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise – Newbury and Doncaster provide the action and as every week we've got all the big-race trends and stats.............

 

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

1.45 - Betfair Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f CH4

No previous runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Philip Hobbs is just 6 from 65 with his hurdlers at the track

2.15 - Betway Supporting Greatwood, Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 4 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y CH4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
5/6 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
5/6 – Aged 10 years-old
4/6 – Favourites unplaced
3/6 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
3/6 – Carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/6 – Ridden by AP McCoy
1/6 – Won their last race
1/6 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewalsis 5/1

2.50 - Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y CH4

12/12 – Won over this trip (hurdles)
11/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
6/12 – Ran at Newbury before
6/12 – Rated 120 or less
5/12 – From the top three in the betting
5/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Went onto finish in the first two in the County Hurdle
2/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/12 – Trained by Gary Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.25 - StanJames.com Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f CH4

12/12 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
11/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Won between 1-4 times over fences
9/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Ran at Newbury (hurdles or fences)
9/12 – Won over this trip
8/12 – Rated 139 or higher
8/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – French bred
6/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Aged 8 years-old
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
4/12 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/12 – Irish bred
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/12 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
1/12 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

DONCASTER (C4/RUK)

2.00 - BetBright Risk Free Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m110y CH4

Four previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
3/4 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
2/4 – Trained by Brian Ellison
James Ewart is 8 from 20 with his chasers here
Keith Reveley has a 20% record with his chasers here
Alan King is just 1 from 27 with his chasers here
James Reveley has a 24% record riding over fences here

2.35 – BetBright Cheltenham Festival Fund Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m110y CH4

Two previous running
Both won by the favourite
Peter Bowen is 0 from 23 with his hurdlers here
Paddy Brennan is just 2 from 27 over hurdles here
3.10 - BetBright Mobile App Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y CH4
Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
2/3 – Aged 9 years-old
2/3 – Favourites
Nicky Henderson has a 36% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Peter Bowen is 0 from 23 with his hurdlers at the track
Barry Geraghty has a 32% record riding over hurdles at the track
Trevor Whelan is 1 from 20 riding over hurdles at the track
Tom Scudamore is just 1 from 25 riding over hurdles at the track

3.45 – BetBright Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f CH4

11/11 – Aged 8 or older
10/11 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
10/11 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/11 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/11 – Aged 9 or older
8/11 – Rated 131 or shorter
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/11 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
5/11 – Won their last race
4/11 – Irish bred
2/11 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
1/11 – Favourites
Night In Milan won this 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 9/2

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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A CRACKING TQ 1-2-3 EARLIER THIS WEEK AT LINGFIELD.................................

"Guards Chapel - Slightly up in class but back to correct distance. Should have a respectable chance."
Gary Moore 24/02/15 1st 6/1

"Takeitfromalady - Went no pace last time over 1m5f so we can put a line through that race. In good form and the step up in trip a plus. Looks a race with a few chances, I expect us to not be far away from the Gary Moore horse - e/w chance."
Lee Carter 24/02/15 2nd 16/1

"Keep Kicking - Runs regularly well at this level and back to top form last time at Chelmsford. Likely to go well again under a 3lb rise."
Simon Dow 24/02/15 3rd 9/2

 

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Sat TV Trends: 24th Jan 2015

We've got ALL the races covered from Cheltenham this Saturday from a trends angle, while the C4 cameras also take in three races from Doncaster, including the SkyBet Chase.

 

Cheltenham (RUK/C4)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Registered as The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

9/11 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
7/11 – Had won at least once over hurdles in the UK
6/11 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
6/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/11 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (1 winner, Katchit 2007)
4/11 – Trained by Alan King
4/11 – Ridden by Robert Thornton
3/11 – Won by a German bred horse
3/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham before
3/11 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 18/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Evan William is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers at the track
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding hurdlers at the track

1.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f

11/11 – Aged 8 or younger
11/11 – Went onto ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
10/11 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK before
9/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter
9/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Won over at least 2 1/2f (fences) in the UK previously
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
7/11 – Rated 128 or higher
6/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/11 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Raced at Kempton last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Neil Mulholland has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track

1.50 - BetBright Cup Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4

11/11 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/11 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (7 had won)
10/11 – Raced over at least 3m (fences)
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
9/11 – Raced at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (3) last time
8/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
8/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or less
7/11 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
5/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/11 – Unplaced in their last race
4/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/11 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
0/11 – Favourites that won
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
David Bridgewater has a 20% record with is chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track

2.25 - freebets.com Trophy Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

11/11 – Finised in the top 4 last time out
11/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
10/11 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/11 – Run over fences at Cheltenham before (5 won)
7/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
7/11 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
6/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track
Lucinda Russell is o from 21 with her chasers here
Wayne Hutchinson is just 1 from 30 riding over fences here

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered The Classic Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y C4

9/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/9 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/9 – From the top 3 in the market
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/9 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
7/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
6/9 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
6/9 – Ran at Cheltenham before
6/9 – Priced 7/2 or less in the betting
3/9 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/9 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/9 – Favourites
2/9 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/9 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Alan King is just 7 from 97 with his hurdlers here
Colin Tizzard is only 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Evan Williams is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers here
Charlie Longsdon is only 1 from 42 with his hurdlers here
Tom O’Brien is just 3 from 37 riding over fences here

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

9/10 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Winners that later ran in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3 won)
8/10 – Ran Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
7/10 – Officially rated 155 or higher
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/10 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
6/10 – Placed Favourites
5/10 – From the top 3 in the market
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Favourites
4/10 – Won by a French-bred horse
2/10 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 12.7/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Rebecca Curtis is just 3 from 43 with her hurdlers at the track
Daryl Jacob is only 6 from 74 when riding over hurdles here

4.10 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

10/10 – Officially Rated 121 or higher
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Ran within the last 9 weeks
8/10 – Raced at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
7/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/10 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/10 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/10 – Won their last race
The winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding over hurdles here
Brendan Powell is just 0 from 26 riding over hurdles here

Doncaster (RUK/C4)

2.05 - OLBG.com Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won over this trip in the past
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
4/5 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Went onto run in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
3/5 – Won between 1-3 times
3/5 – Irish bred
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 - Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 8.7/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Neil Mulholland has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
David Pipe is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track
Noel Fehily has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
5/5 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
5/5 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less4/5 – Favourites placed
4/5 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/5 – From the top 3 in the betting
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Favourites
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a +£37 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course
Don McCain is just 4 from 47 with his hurdlers at the track

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m

9/9 – Won between 0-3 times over fences
8/9 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Won over at least 3m (fences)
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Officially rated 130 or higher
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
5/9 – From the top 3 in the betting market
5/9 – Irish bred winners
4/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/9 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
1/9 – Favourites
1/9 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 9 winners  went onto run in the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 9 winners ran later in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Keith Reveley has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 27% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King has just a 4% record with his chasers at the track
James Reveley has a 24% record riding over fences here
Nick Schofield has a 27% record riding over fences here
Liam Treadwell has a 27% record riding over fences here

 

Get Matt's full Cheltenham TV Preview here

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"Little Boy Boru - Six pounds out of the handicap and may find this track a bit sharp. However, thoroughly genuine and has plenty of stamina and has a small each way squeak at 9st 9lb if ground is testing. More rain will help as ground probably very holding now."
Suzy Smith 10/01/15 2nd 25/1

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