Posts

Sunday Supplement: “A rich man’s game”

California Chrome only 2nd in Meydan

California Chrome only 2nd in Meydan

Sunday supplement

By Tony Stafford

Some time just after Christmas, I bumped into Joe Fanning at one of the all-weather tracks and asked him whether he’d sorted out Mark Johnston’s then at least 100-long string of losers. Sorry not to be more precise about the timing. Joe, always affable, replied: “Doesn’t matter, we’ve just had 120 two-year-olds arrive!”

In 2014 Johnston’s two-year-olds, for all that the stable  hit the buffers at the end of the Flat season, managed 43 wins from 303 runs. Performances were broadly similar for the three previous years, 45 from 415 in 2013, and 41 from 299 and 37 from 331 in the two previous campaigns.

I hadn’t remembered him ever being over busy early on with that division. By 3 p.m. on Saturday, the first day with juvenile races programmed, he stood on three for three after wins in the Brocklesby at Doncaster and the maidens at Kempton and then Chelmsford. No-one else, not Bill Turner, not Richard Hannon, got a look in.

It wouldn’t be racing if there weren’t the usual stories. Minutes after Buratino, an Exceed and Excel Darley home-bred won at Chelmsford Simon Whitworth, now an important cog in the Barry and Charlie Hills teams said: “They told me before the race that the one at Chelmsford was better than the other two.” They didn’t tell me, whoever they were.

On the gallops at Newmarket the day before, connections of one of the soon-to-be Chelmsford victims, going through the five runners said: “Johnston’s is very bad at the gate – he’s been through twice and was slowly away each time.” Gallops tittle-tattle is vital. What happened? Johnston’s flew out and made all, amazingly starting 9-4 in a five-horse field with two stable mates having already run and won.

Now of course all the media experts will have latched onto a great system. They’ll tell you Johnston’s two-year-olds are in form and it’s the more irritating that not only does he not run anything at all today, but that a big number of entries for All Fool’s Day does not include a single juvenile.

Your first 30 days for just £1

A more serious factor lies behind the sudden change (for that surely is what it was) for Johnston, and the key must be the altered activity especially in Charlie Appleby’s section of the sprawling Godolphin operation.

Time was, long ago, when the Maktoum family steadfastly avoided all-weather racing, clearly believing it was unfair to mop up the crumbs that the biggest boys left for the smaller stables.

Those days are no more. Appleby’s 70-plus wins on the all-weather part of the year have pretty much come with horses that in previous years would have devolved down to Johnston while Appleby (or as was Al Zarooni, whose name we must never utter in public) prepared for the new intake of two-year-olds.

I love my Horses in Training, the best £19.99 on the market, although this year it has set me back double that. The first glimpse, having generally bought it at Cheltenham on the first day of the Festival, was brief and my mistake, going to the gents and leaving it on a chair in an unnamed box – shame on you lot – meant I needed to buy the replacement in Tindalls in Newmarket High Street on Friday morning.

As Joe said, Johnston has 122 two-year-olds, considerably fewer than Richard Hannon, listed with 152 but probably with half as many again being readied to join them in assorted yards around the Berkshire/Wiltshire borders.

I’ve been up a few times recently watching Ray Tooth’s three home-bred colts going through their paces. Ray’s also in the middle of a change in policy, not quite like Godolphin’s, but he’s come to the realisation that even mid-range spending on one or two yearlings each autumn is no guarantee to success, or even being competitive.

The hope is that by using as-yet unproven and therefore inexpensive stallions that themselves were well-bred and performed to a high level on the track, with mares with a similar background, you might break the mould. Ray reasons that the extra layer of big-money buyers from Qatar coupled with a renewed energy from Dubai to keep ahead of their near neighbours has brought yearlings far outside the reach of most domestic owners at any rate.

William Haggas, who trained three fillies for Ray which are now starting out as broodmares – they are respectively by Dubawi, Dutch Art and Oratorio – said he agreed with his former client’s analysis.

Haggas, one of the most upwardly-mobile trainers, is also one of the fairest, and if your horse does not warrant expending as he says: “My expensive fees”, he soon recommends that the owner finds a cheaper option, although our trio were allowed to stay the full course.

With 172 horses, 81 of them juveniles, he has 22 (if my dodgy eyes deciphered the numbers correctly) that cost £100,000 or more, along with some choicely-related home-breds. The Queen has four juveniles, three home-breds, but one filly Oriental Cross, by Cape Cross cost £174,000!

Analysis of any of the big yards will throw up a similar profile, with loads more horses at Haggas’s coming in the £60,000 to £90,000 bracket. As the people who’ve spotted that Johnston’s juveniles are in form, give them a Horses in Training and they’ll tell you: “Racing’s a rich man’s sport.”

Johnston is one very few trainers who still tries to fill lesser-endowed orders from his long-standing clients and one of the Saturday three, David  Abell’s narrow Brocklesby winner Ravenhoe (by Bahamian Bounty) cost Mark £16,000 at Doncaster’s August sale. The other pair ran in the more regulation green and red of Sheikh Mo’s son Hamdan and were home-breds from Darley.

The Abell 16-grand winner gives us hope that Highway Robber, by Dick Turpin, at Simon Crisford’s – bought back for 15,000gns at Newmarket - and Harry Champion, a Cockney Rebel colt thought unlikely to be commercial at the sales, and now with Hugo Palmer, might punch above their weight, much as their owner has over the past near 30 years.

Being told that one of them was going along with a Kodiac and an Oasis Dream , and the second on Saturday, with another Kodiac and a Showcasing, keeps the faith going.

I’ve broken away to look at the Cricket World Cup score and it looks like Australia will not have much of a target to chase against New Zealand. Instead, reckon I’ll watch the first two laps of the Grand Prix to make sure Hamilton will have another boring all the way win.

Returning to horses, Lingfield stages its well-endowed Good Friday card for the second year and it has attracted nine Charlie Appleby’s and a couple of Saeed bin Suroor entries. Saeed took Charlie’s thunder on Dubai World Cup day yesterday, winning the World Cup with old-timer Prince Bishop from the American pair California Chrome and Lea. Apart from the opener won by the local favourite, whose “luck” in getting a good draw in each of four runs this Carnival hardly amused Jeremy Noseda. His Sloane Avenue started from 15 of 16, got an early bump and failed by a short head to get up.

Otherwise it was all Europe and Mike de Kock, with pride of place going to Michael Owen and the admirable Brown Panther in the Marathon and Sole Power for Ireland in the Sprint. Add in the usual French excellence and you have a normal World Cup day. So what, unless you’re the ones picking up the big bucks, nowadays it’s a bit of an irrelevance.

Cousin Khee is guaranteed a run in Friday’s marathon as only 12 were confirmed. His 40-1 odds reveal him as a major outsider, but if gets in the first six, which he could, it’ll be a nice follow on to Two Jabs’ highly-promising second at Wolverhampton the other day. We’re still in the game, rich man’s or not.

Sat TV Trends: 24th Jan 2015

We've got ALL the races covered from Cheltenham this Saturday from a trends angle, while the C4 cameras also take in three races from Doncaster, including the SkyBet Chase.

 

Cheltenham (RUK/C4)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Registered as The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

9/11 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
7/11 – Had won at least once over hurdles in the UK
6/11 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
6/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/11 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (1 winner, Katchit 2007)
4/11 – Trained by Alan King
4/11 – Ridden by Robert Thornton
3/11 – Won by a German bred horse
3/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham before
3/11 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 18/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Evan William is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers at the track
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding hurdlers at the track

1.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f

11/11 – Aged 8 or younger
11/11 – Went onto ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
10/11 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK before
9/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter
9/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Won over at least 2 1/2f (fences) in the UK previously
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
7/11 – Rated 128 or higher
6/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/11 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Raced at Kempton last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Neil Mulholland has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track

1.50 - BetBright Cup Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4

11/11 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/11 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (7 had won)
10/11 – Raced over at least 3m (fences)
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
9/11 – Raced at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (3) last time
8/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
8/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or less
7/11 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
5/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/11 – Unplaced in their last race
4/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/11 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
0/11 – Favourites that won
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
David Bridgewater has a 20% record with is chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track

2.25 - freebets.com Trophy Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

11/11 – Finised in the top 4 last time out
11/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
10/11 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/11 – Run over fences at Cheltenham before (5 won)
7/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
7/11 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
6/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track
Lucinda Russell is o from 21 with her chasers here
Wayne Hutchinson is just 1 from 30 riding over fences here

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered The Classic Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y C4

9/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/9 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/9 – From the top 3 in the market
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/9 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
7/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
6/9 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
6/9 – Ran at Cheltenham before
6/9 – Priced 7/2 or less in the betting
3/9 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/9 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/9 – Favourites
2/9 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/9 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Alan King is just 7 from 97 with his hurdlers here
Colin Tizzard is only 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Evan Williams is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers here
Charlie Longsdon is only 1 from 42 with his hurdlers here
Tom O’Brien is just 3 from 37 riding over fences here

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

9/10 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Winners that later ran in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3 won)
8/10 – Ran Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
7/10 – Officially rated 155 or higher
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/10 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
6/10 – Placed Favourites
5/10 – From the top 3 in the market
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Favourites
4/10 – Won by a French-bred horse
2/10 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 12.7/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Rebecca Curtis is just 3 from 43 with her hurdlers at the track
Daryl Jacob is only 6 from 74 when riding over hurdles here

4.10 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

10/10 – Officially Rated 121 or higher
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Ran within the last 9 weeks
8/10 – Raced at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
7/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/10 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/10 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/10 – Won their last race
The winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding over hurdles here
Brendan Powell is just 0 from 26 riding over hurdles here

Doncaster (RUK/C4)

2.05 - OLBG.com Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won over this trip in the past
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
4/5 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Went onto run in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
3/5 – Won between 1-3 times
3/5 – Irish bred
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 - Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 8.7/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Neil Mulholland has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
David Pipe is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track
Noel Fehily has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
5/5 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
5/5 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less4/5 – Favourites placed
4/5 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/5 – From the top 3 in the betting
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Favourites
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a +£37 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course
Don McCain is just 4 from 47 with his hurdlers at the track

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m

9/9 – Won between 0-3 times over fences
8/9 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Won over at least 3m (fences)
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Officially rated 130 or higher
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
5/9 – From the top 3 in the betting market
5/9 – Irish bred winners
4/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/9 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
1/9 – Favourites
1/9 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 9 winners  went onto run in the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 9 winners ran later in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Keith Reveley has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 27% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King has just a 4% record with his chasers at the track
James Reveley has a 24% record riding over fences here
Nick Schofield has a 27% record riding over fences here
Liam Treadwell has a 27% record riding over fences here

 

Get Matt's full Cheltenham TV Preview here

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Little Boy Boru - Six pounds out of the handicap and may find this track a bit sharp. However, thoroughly genuine and has plenty of stamina and has a small each way squeak at 9st 9lb if ground is testing. More rain will help as ground probably very holding now."
Suzy Smith 10/01/15 2nd 25/1

GRAB YOUR FREE TRIAL TODAY

 

Sat TV Trends: 26th Oct 2012

O BrienThe C4 cameras head to Doncaster, Newbury and Aintree this Saturday - Andy Newton's got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle.......Can Aidan O'Brien land an 8th Racing Post Trophy? Read more

Doncaster Trainer Stats:

Lanigan

David Lanigan Does Well At Donny!

Decent cards up at Doncaster this Friday and Saturday, with the Racing Post Trophy taking centre stage – We highlight four yards with excellent track stats on Town Moor, plus a few big stables you might want to avoid. Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th June 2013

HENRY CANDY

Henry Candy in flying form

Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards that are in cracking form to look out for this week…… Read more

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 26/04/13

Stat of the Day: 26/04/13

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2013

We had to settle for a second place finish yesterday in a race depleted by the late withdrawal of several of the outsiders. The bare result doesn't tell the full story, though, if I'm honest. Asgardella never looked like winning, despite staying on well at the end. Mind you, she had to fly to get there, having looked a very tricky ride for the first three-quarters of the race. If the yard can settle this one, she'll no doubt get back to winning ways, possibly over a longer trip than yesterday.

A bit of deja vu today as we remain in Yorkshire for another 7f handicap. It's a Class 3 contest today and the going is good to firm for the 14 runners set to take to the stalls for the...

1.30 Doncaster:

The deja vu feeling continues here with my choice of trainer, but I make no apology for sticking with Richard Fahey, despite his filly not doing the business yesterday. We talked yesterday about his fine form in March & April and we mentioned that his yard was in really good nick at present: both of those statements are equally relevant today, but I want to look at another subsection of his runners today.

Firstly, I want to look at Mr Fahey's record at Doncaster this season to date: six winners and seven places from just twenty-six runners is fantastic. To achieve a 50% place strike rate is very good indeed and the 23% win strike rate is equally impressive yielding 26.33pts profit at level stakes, a profit of 101.3% over stakes invested. If we consider handicap events only, that record is improved further to 5 wins from 21 (23.8%) for 27pts profit (+128.6%).

We also talked yesterday about his younger (ie ages 2 to 6) horses competing in better quality (Classes 1 to 4) being profitable, well that obviously remains the case, but I also read that his 4 & 5 yr old horses in this category returning from a lay off of 5 months or more performed very well too: 7/18 for +21.5pts already this season.

And one final stat for you and a reasonably well-known one too: blanket backing of horses making their first appearance for the Fahey yard generates a reasonable 20% ROI.

There's plenty to take in there, but I've found a horse that fits every one of those criteria! Today's selection is therefore, It's My Time.

It's My Time is running in an April handicap at Doncaster, she's a 4yr old running in a Class 3 contest coming back from a break of 158 days having switched yards during that break from David Simcock to Richard Fahey, after an admittedly modest set of six losing runs. She still runs off a reasonable mark here and the form of the new yard allied to the host of stats is good enough for inclusion here today.

As it's a fairly large field and she's a maiden, I am going hedge my bets (take the coward's way out) and take a 0.5pts E/W bet on It's My Time. I've settled for the 5/1 BOG on offer with BetVictor, but that price is widely available, so to see what your bookie is offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Doncaster

Sat TV Trends: 13th April 2013

KemptonNot the biggest Saturday in the calendar, but there are still seven LIVE C4 races to get stuck into - Andy Newton's on hand with all the key trends & stats...... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 30th Mar 2013

Lincoln

A Busy Day For C4 This Saturday......

A busy day this Saturday with nine LIVE C4 races at Doncaster, Haydock, Kempton and Musselburgh – Andy Newton’s got it all covered from a trends angle. Read more

Sat TV Trends: 23rd Mar 2013

Doncaster

It's Lincoln Day At Donny.....

Weather permitting it’s the William Hill Lincoln Handicap this weekend, while the C4 cameras also head to Newbury for a decent NH card – Andy Newton’s got all the key trends & stats...... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 2nd March 2013

Newbury

A Decent Card A Newbury.......

Some decent action this week as the C4 cameras head to Newbury and Doncaster - Andy Newton's got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.... Read more

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 04/02/13

Stat of the Day: 04/02/13

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2013

It was another case of close, but no cigar yesterday as Close Together only managed a second place finish. She stayed on well at the finish as I expected her to, but was ultimately beaten by the best part of 1.25 lengths. She was closing in on the winner Precision Strike, who effectively won the race on the final turn, some two furlongs from home. Talented claimer Philip Prince set his horse for home early and stole a march on the rest of the field, opening up a considerable gap, which our selection didn't manage to close. Both our mount Close Together and the winning jockey Philip Prince will have winners again soon, I feel.

There's not a lot to choose from today and there's nothing catching my eye at Wolverhampton, so that narrows it down to some NH action in South Yorkshire. The going on Town Moor is expected to be Good to Soft and we're going to try to tackle the conundrum of a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles and a half furlong, where 18 runners contest the...

3.30 Doncaster

John Quinn's horses have a tendency to go well in hurdle events here at Doncaster, where he has saddled up seven winners from twenty since the turn of 2010 with a further three making the frame. This 35% strike rate has produced 41pts profit (205%), whilst E/W backers have collected on 50% of the time to the tune of 45.5pts (113.75%).

This form has been even more impressive of late with five of his last ten hurdlers here going on to win with one more being placed and those five wins have generated 40pts profit.

The yard itself is in good nick with 8 winners and 3 placers from just 27 races over the last two months and this is the time of year that Mr Quinn seems to get his horses in top form: nine winners and four placers from thirty-eight runners in the last three Februarys are testament to this.

John has two hurdlers out today: the highly respected Countrywide Flame looks up against it in the 3.00 race, but our selection half an hour later, Luccombe Chine, looks a better bet for a chance of a return.

Luccombe Chine is an 8yr old mare who won a 2m6f Cartmel handicap on soft ground in August, but didn't live up to that performance on her last two runs. It has been suggested that she probably travelled too well for her own good at Wetherby on very testing ground and I'm sure that far better ground on offer today will help her in her quest to step back up in trip. She certainly has ability, but the last two runs will have been noted by the market, yet it's also hard to argue with the current form and the overall Doncaster record of the yard.

She might not win today and the market would tend to suggest this, but any improvement on that Wetherby run last time out should be enough to make the frame, as the bookies are paying on four places today. That said, the prudent option is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Luccombe Chine at 10/1 BOG with Corals (as of 10.50am), but you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Doncaster

Sat TV Trends: 29th Dec 2012

NewburyAnother busy Saturday with seven more LIVE C4 races from Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown - See all the races covered from a trends angle here.... Read more

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2012

Stat of the Day 30/11/12

Stat of the Day 30/11/12

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2012

A frustrating day yesterday, as I quite fancied both of Phil Middleton's runners, but plumped for the wrong one for SotD! Our selection Gougane went well until he made a bit of a mess of the penultimate hurdle. His race was pretty much over and he went backwards from there, eventually finishing 5th, just over a length away from securing us a place return.

On the other hand Phil's other runner Sail And Return won quite impressively at 12/1 and I know many of you got on at 14's, but I can't, unfortunately count that for SotD purposes. A shame really, as that would have ensured a profitable month, despite the struggles we've had recently!

We're off to South Yorkshire today for some soft ground action as we take on a 2m 3f Novices Chase. Just six runners are set to go to post for the...

12.50 Doncaster

Trainer James Ewart seems to get the best results out of his chasers by sending them to compete on Town Moor. Today's meeting was held on the 25th November last year and both of James' chasers won that day. In fact his record from that meeting to today for chase events at Doncaster reads 111213116: six wins and two places from nine is a fantastic effort.

Those who have followed James' nine chasers and backed them are now 28pts better off: a magnificent 311% profit on their stakes. James has two runners at the track today, but Ueueteotl runs in a hurdle contest at 12.20, so his only chaser on display today is Let's Get Serious.

Let's Get Serious won two of only four races for Nicky Henderson. He won a bumper on debut and was then first and second in a couple of novice hurdles last season. He has gone well over good to soft and soft ground, so shouldn't be too inconvenienced by the cut in the ground and the trip should also be fine as he's has won over a trip just a furlong longer than today.

The fact that he's making his chasing bow, coupled with the fact there's likely to be a warm favourite (Rick is currently 8/11) means there's a reasonable price on offer today. At 10.40am, the best price on offer was 11/2 BOG with Stan James, so I'm taking some of that.

Therefore, my play today is a straight 1pt win bet on Let's Get Serious at 11/2 with Stan James, but please feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.50 Doncaster

 

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2012

Stat of the Day 10/11

Stat of the Day 10/11

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2012

Good Morning Everyone, I'm back with you after spending the last fortnight basking (or baking!) in the Egyptian sunshine, but fear not: the UK has delivered me some instant karma by handing me a stinking cold.

I am, however, hoping for some warming cheer from the flat season's finale and the last fillies' listed event of the year as 13 runners do battle over 10 furlongs on Good ground (softer in parts) for a top prize of around £20,000 in the Betfred E.B.F. Gillies Fillies' Stakes, better known to us as the...

2.00 Doncaster

David Lanigan has an excellent record at Doncaster, considering he doesn't send many runners there. The excellent results he does achieve at the Town Moor track would tend to suggest a targeting of specific races and hopefully today fits that bill. To date, David has only been represented on fifteen occasions at the South Yorkshire course, but a strike rate of 40% via 6 winners has yielded a profit of some 15.3pts, equivalent to 102% of your stakes. With a further four of the nine non-winners also making the frame, an overall place strike rate of 67% lends itself readily to an Each Way prospect too.

His record over the last couple of years here is just as impressive, if not better. Three winners from six and a further second place finish replicated that 67% place strike rate and the 50% winning ratio generated a fantastic 9.7pts profit to boot (almost 162% of stakes!)

Having a great record here won't count for much though, if he doesn't have a horse suitable for today's task, but his sole entrant today is a decent sort who comes into today's contest in good nick. We're looking at Dorcas Lane today, a really consistent filly whose formline of 122133622 shows that she's only failed to make the first three home once in 9 attempts. She is a very useful filly and those last two runner-up results were both in Listed events at Newmarket, the latest of which was over this trip last month and on that form, she should have a decent chance once again. She only went down by a head that day and was still running on at the finish.

The form of the previous second place finish to Hazel Lavery has been backed up by that winner taking a Group 3 contest at Newbury a fortnight ago.

She does, however, come up against a fairly warm favourite today in the shape of Sajjhaa, who is likely to go off at a price of less than 6/4, which means there's some leeway for us to take an E/W shot and based on her own place strike rate and that of her trainer David Lanigan here at Doncaster, that does seem a prudent option for us consider.

Having checked the markets at 10am, 9/1 BOG was widely available and with 1/4 odds on offer for the place, my play today is 0.5pts E/W at 9/1 BOG on Dorcas Lane. I've gone with bet365, because I've still got some money in that account, but the 9/1 is there with at least eight other firms, so be sure to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.00 Doncaster

Sat TV Trends: 10th Nov 2012

Can First Mohican win the November Handicap?


Did you know the last favourite to win the November Handicap was in 1995? Read more