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Top 10 Front Running Biases in Handicap Chases, Part 1: 10 to 6

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The Top 10 front running biases in handicap chases Part 1 – 10 to 6

Over the next two articles I will share what I believe to be the Top Ten current run style handicap chase front running biases in the UK and Ireland, writes Dave Renham. In this first half, I will reveal positions 10 down to 6; and next week I'll reveal my top five. Of course, I appreciate that there will be people who disagree with my hierarchy but, ultimately, all ten biases have shown themselves to be profitable to deploy alongside more traditional form reading. As a bonus, today I will also share three near misses that narrowly failed to make the top ten.

Introduction

To compile my top picks, I have used data for handicap chases only as they are not so prone to distortion by the ability range of the horses competing. Data are from 2018 to 2024 with no minimum runner consideration.

I mentioned in a recent offering that Gold members of Geegeez have so many benefits and one of these is access to the Pace Analyser. This allows users to dive into run style / pace biases at any racecourse in the UK and Ireland. The data can be filtered based on going, field size, distance and race type. There is also the option to separate hurdles and chase (and NH Flat) data at jumps courses; and across all courses the data can further be filtered by year to allow for possible changes in any bias. The Pace Analyser is ideal for research such as this, and it was the main source that I used to produce what follows.

The run style data on Geegeez is split into four groups - Led, Prominent, Mid Division and Held Up. A quick refresher of which type of horse fits each profile:

Led – horses that lead early, usually within the first furlong or so; or horses that dispute or fight for the early lead.

Prominent – horses that lay up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack.

Held Up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

Near Misses

In general, the ‘led’ group has an edge in most handicap chases. Some courses offer a stronger edge than others and hence let me start by looking at the C&Ds that were near misses:

 

Exeter 2m3f

To get this distance on Geegeez we need to use the 2m4f distance figure on the Query Tool / Pace Analyser as distances are grouped every two furlongs. It should be noted, too, that some race distances at a track change slightly sometimes due to rail adjustments. This happens more and more these days, or at least it is more accurately reported these days!

Let me share the Exeter figures taken from the Pace Analyser:

 

 

This is a good time to note that not all run style groups have the same number of runners; there are always going to be far more hold up horses than front runners / early leaders. However, despite the ‘led’ group having just 82 qualifiers compared with the held-up group of 161, they have still won 20 races compared with 15. The Win%s in the table show the strike rate within each run style group, and for this article that is how I will quantify ‘win strike rate’.

The ‘led’ group produced by far the highest percentage at 24%. That is, 24.39% of the horses that led early went on to win their races. (They actually won 31.25% (20/64) of all races in the sample).

Leaders' place percentage was comfortably the best too, with 47.6% of early leaders still in the frame at the finish line; while their A/E index of 1.39 indicates that front runners were very good value.

If we considered favourites only in these races and their performance by run style, we have seen the following win strike rates splits (I have combined favourites whose run style was either Mid Div or Held Up):

 

 

Front runners / horses that contested the early lead had an outstanding record when favoured by the market. However, it's a different story for those favourites that raced mid pack or at the back early. As can be seen, the bias over this course and distance has been very strong indeed, but still it wasn't quite enough to make my top ten. Exciting times ahead, then!

Before moving on, in terms of what has happened in 2025, of the eight races to date, five have been won by front runners.

 

Sedgefield 2m5f to 2m5½f

Using the Geegeez tools we use the 2m6f distance.

 

 

Front runners have hit a win rate in excess of 30% and the only reason this track/trip did not make the list is due to the relatively strong stats for horses that raced in midfield early. Also, the 2025 stats to date have seen horses racing mid-pack early doing well and winning three of the six races to date.

 

Lingfield 2m

The stats were as follows:

 

 

Strong figures again for front runners, although this is another course and distance (C&D) where qualifying races were relatively infrequent (only four races per year on average). Indeed, at the time of writing there has been just one qualifying handicap chase in 2025, but it was won by the early leader as we can see:

 

 

It is also worth noting that he was projected as the 'probable lone speed' in the race:

 

 

OK, near misses shared; onto position ten in my list.

 

Top 10, 10 to 6

#10 Chepstow 3m

Some readers may expect front runners to be at a disadvantage over longer distances in handicap chases: surely for a horse to lead from start to finish in a 3-mile race would not be any easy assignment, right? However, looking at the Chepstow breakdown I suspect might change a few minds!

 

 

Front runners have bossed these races over the past few seasons, while prominent racers have been clearly second best with much better stats than horses which raced off the pace. 68 of the 96 winners raced close to the pace or at the front - that's 71% of the winners from 47% of the runners. And a front runner has been over four times more likely to win than a hold up horse when analysing the win percentage within their respective groups (25% versus 5.7%).

Now, as stated earlier, we get more hold up horses than front runners in most races and there were just over twice as many hold up horses compared to front runners between 2018 and 2024. That means therefore that when talking purely about race wins, front runners have won just over twice the number of races than hold ups.

There have been seven races this year so far with two being won from the front.

 

#9 Sandown 2m4f

It is time to head to Surrey now, and specifically Esher, to look at the 2m4f stats from Sandown. The run style splits for this time frame were as follows:

 

 

It's a similar story to Chepstow’s 3-mile trip but front runners have had a better place record here, hitting over 53%. There have not been that many qualifying races per year (roughly five to six) but keep an eye out for confirmed front runners when they race over this C&D. Those on the early lead have had an even stronger edge on soft/heavy ground as can be seen below:

 

 

From Sandown we head up country to Haydock.

 

#8 Haydock 2m3f-2m5f

Haydock seemed to have 'played around' a little with the usual 2m4f trip occasionally adding or dropping a furlong. Hence, I have combined results together a furlong either side of two and a half miles. Let me share the run style stats:

 

 

There has again not been a huge number of races each year, but the front running numbers were extremely strong over the period of study. 11 of the 29 races were won from the front and that cohort also had an outstanding place record. Hold up horses really struggled in terms of winning, though they fared better from a placed perspective.

Haydock, like Sandown, has seen the front running bias strengthen on softer ground. On soft or heavy the run style win strike rates were as follows:

 

 

It should be noted the sample size stands at only 17 races. The A/E indices correlate strongly as the graph below shows:

 

 

All in all, Haydock over 2m4f has strongly favoured horses racing at the front end.

 

#7 Carlisle 2m4f

Staying north for number seven, as we head to Carlisle next. The run style splits were:

 

 

It could be argued that both Haydock and Sandown should be positioned higher than Carlisle in the list; but Carlisle’s overall sample size was bigger and that swung it for me, along with an outstanding A/E index of 1.57 and excellent IV of 2.4. The figures for both of these metrics were the highest of the four C&Ds shared to date, and comfortably so.

In terms of underfoot, once again we have seen a strengthening of the bias on softer ground. I will share the win strike rate percentages and the A/E indices once more. Firstly, the win stats:

 

 

Clearly, as with the 2m4f trips at Sandown and Haydock, on soft or heavy it has been hard to make up ground from further back. 21 of the 27 races were won by front runners (12 wins) or prominent racers (9). Hold up horses had a win rate of under 3% within their run style group which is the lowest figure seen to date.

The A/E indices positively correlate with the win SR%s as we would have expected:

 

 

A ‘led’ figure of 1.79 suggests huge value; not so for the 0.26 hold up A/E index.

One final front running stat to share for this track and trip combination is connected with those early leaders that were in the top three of the betting market. This collective won 16 races from 36 qualifiers which equates to a win rate of over 44%.

This year, at the time of writing, there have only been four qualifying races over this C&D (all going conditions), and three of the four have been won from the front.

 

#6 Doncaster 2m3f to 2m4½f

Onto Donny now to close out the first half of my top ten. They have races over similar distances from 2m3f to 2m4½f so all races within that distance band are included (2m4f for all on Geegeez Pace Analyser):

 

 

Front runners have won 20 of the 51 races and have an excellent placed record to boot. The ground is rarely testing at Doncaster, but on good to soft or softer the bias does seem to get even stronger:

 

 

11 of the 25 races, which equates to 44% of all races, were won from the front under these conditions.

If we considered favourites only at Doncaster and their performance by run style, we have seen the following win strike rates splits (I have once again combined favourites whose run style was either Mid Div or Held Up):

 

Favourites that led early have been far more successful than other run style groups.

And that rounds out the lower half of my top ten. Next time it will be the top five, some even stronger biases than these! Until then...

- DR

 

 

 

 

 

St Leger dreams dashed for Lazy Griff team

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Owners Middleham Park Racing have been left “gutted” after Lazy Griff was cruelly ruled out of the Betfred St Leger following a setback.

The Charlie Johnston-trained colt has been a standout performer for his connections this term and was due to head to Doncaster with leading claims after placed efforts in both the Derby at Epsom and the Irish equivalent.

He was as short as 4-1 second favourite behind Aidan O’Brien’s Scandinavia for the world’s oldest Classic next Saturday, with his team now having to turn their attentions to next season with the injury set to keep Lazy Griff out of action for the rest of the current campaign.

Mike Prince of owners Middleham Park Racing said: “He’s met with a setback. He was due to do his last piece of work before the Leger on Saturday but he’s now out for the rest of the season.

“He should be fine to come back next season but it is a bit gutting to get so close to heading to the Leger, where on paper he looked to have a really great chance.

“The syndicate are really gutted and they were all set to head to Doncaster next Saturday, but these things happen and are set to test us.

“It’s one of those things and hopefully we can get him back for next season. We’ll probably look to campaign him in those long-distance races and cup races, he is certainly of that level. Although everyone is a bit flat and disappointed at the moment.”

Leger Legends riders to this year include Derby and Aintree heroes

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Derby winner Adam Kirby, a Grand National hero in Niall ‘Slippers’ Madden and a former Cheltenham Festival regular in Denis O’Regan are among the names involved in this year’s Leger Legends race at Doncaster next Sunday.

First run in 2010, the likes of Sir Anthony McCoy, Kieren Fallon, Mick Kinane, Julie Krone, Barry Geraghty, Richard Johnson and Richard Hughes have all taken part down the years.

This year Kirby, who won the Derby as recently as 2021 on Adayar, and Madden, successful at Aintree on Numbersixvalverde in 2006, will be part of the proceedings along with the likes of Jimmy Quinn and Franny Norton.

Andrew Thornton, part of the organising committee, said: “We’ve got a Derby winner in Adam Kirby, Jimmy Quinn, Franny Norton – the King of Chester – Greg Cheyne – the South African who has ridden at the Shergar Cup, has been a leading South African jockey and is heavily involved with William Haggas and  Adrian Nicholls.

“We’ve then got Gary Bardwell again, Sammy-Jo Bell who will be trying to win it for what seems the 28th time! Shelly Birkett and Gary Bartley who rode Hawkeyethenoo for Jim Goldie.

“Then we have Alan Johns who won his last race, Denis O’Regan, who has ridden a winner on every jumps track in the UK and Ireland, I think he’s the only jockey to have done so, Jimmy McCarthy, (Niall) Slippers Madden who won the Grand National on Numbersixvalverde and Dean Gallagher.

“Dean of course is a work rider for Aidan O’Brien so we’ve had to tell him he won’t be going as fast as he does in a morning!

“Jody McGarvey, a dual Grade One-winning rider is coming over and Andrew Tinkler, who is another now associated with William Haggas, is also having a go.

“We’ll be having the usual lunch when everybody gets together and there’s also going to be an online auction selling memorabilia.

“We’re raising money for some equipment called Arca-Ex which is a non-invasive treatment of the spinal cord via electrical stimulation to help improve hand and arm movement.

“It hasn’t been patented over here yet, it has been in America, but it will hopefully give people hope who have had spinal injuries. If we can be a leading force behind this in something for jockeys, it might give them some hope. Anything is worth a try.”

Leicester and Doncaster options under consideration for Zanthos

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Connections are considering the options with the exciting Zanthos after the prospect of soft ground scuppered a tilt at the Solario Stakes.

The €1million breeze-up buy lit up the July course with a dazzling display on debut, with trainers Simon and Ed Crisford open to taking on the colts in the Sandown Group Three.

However, put off by forecast rain and keen to ensure the daughter of Sioux Nation banks further experience on a sound surface, they will now consider a new route to high-ranking events at the end of the season.

Zanthos holds an entry for both the Rockfel Stakes (September 26) and Fillies’ Mile (October 10) on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, with the youngster’s team now weighing up a Leicester novice event on September 9 or Doncaster’s Betfred May Hill Stakes two days later as potential stepping stones.

Chris Wall, racing manager for owners Victorious Forever, said: “The plan was to run in the Solario, but we ducked out of that with the forecast and possibility of soft ground which it looked like being.

“The target is the Rockfel and it’s just how we get there as we feel she needs to have another run for experience and it’s then a question of where we do that.

“We could go for the May Hill over a mile which I suppose if she ran well in that, we could then bin the Rockfel idea and head straight to the Fillies’ Mile. Or there is also a fillies’ novice race at Leicester the same week.

“As much as anything, and obviously her well-being at the time is also paramount, but wherever she goes could be dictated a little bit by the ground as she’s a good-actioned filly. I’m not saying she won’t cope with slowish ground but she wouldn’t want very soft ground.

“We’re all looking forward to her next run and it’s disappointing we couldn’t go to the Solario as it would have let us know where we stood and we could confidently make plans for the autumn, but we can’t help the weather and we take that on the chin and move on.”

Carmers all set for Doncaster as 15 remain in final Classic

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Paddy Twomey’s Carmers will turn his attention to the Betfred St Leger after his fine run to finish second in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes at York.

The Wootton Bassett colt arrived on the Knavesmire unbeaten in three runs, with a maiden and a Listed win followed by victory in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal meeting in June.

Stepping down to a mile and half for the first time in a field that included the dual Derby winner Lambourn with a penalty for his Ascot win, he did connections proud when beaten only a length, setting himself up nicely for a return to a longer trip in the Group One St Leger at Doncaster in mid September.

“We were very happy with him at York last week, finishing second in the Great Voltigeur on his first time dropping in trip to a mile and a half,” said Twomey.

“He travelled through the race well and hit the line strong, I thought it was a very good trial for the St Leger at Doncaster in a few weeks.

“On numbers it looked his best run to date, he’s a progressive horse and I think stepping back to a mile and six at Doncaster will really suit him.”

Carmers is one of 15 remaining in the hunt for Classic honours on Town Moor after the latest entry stage, with Aidan O’Brien responsible for over half of those to stand their ground.

Goodwood Cup hero and red-hot favourite Scandinavia heads Ballydoyle’s eight possibles, with dual Derby hero Lambourn also still in the mix along with Stay True after both finished behind Twomey’s Classic hope on the Knavesmire.

Surprisingly Minnie Hauk also remains in the Leger picture despite O’Brien’s suggestion she had alternative big-race alternatives, but stablemate Whirl is one of the more notable scratchings.

With Twomey and Joseph O’Brien’s Derby third Tennessee Stud making it 10 Irish challengers in total at this stage, it is left to Lazy Griff to lead a five-strong home defence made up from just four trainers.

Joining Middleham Park Racing’s dual Classic-placed contender among the potential runners is William Haggas’ Great Voltigeur third Arabian Force, Andrew Balding’s pair of Furthur and Melrose scorer Tarriance and Roger Varian’s Rahiebb.

Charlie Johnston banking on break in weather to spark St Leger dream

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Charlie Johnston is praying for rain, as he counts down the days until Lazy Griff goes for Betfred St Leger glory at Doncaster next month.

The Middleham Park Racing-owned colt has already given his connections a real thrill when placing in both the Derby at Epsom and Irish equivalent this summer, but Johnston has always felt the extended stamina emphasis of the oldest Classic would play to his stable star’s strengths.

Content to head straight to Town Moor fresh, Johnston was a keen observer of York’s Great Voltigeur Stakes last week. Although it is conditions in South Yorkshire that are giving him most concern.

Johnston said: “Doncaster is coming round quick, it’s only 19 days – not that we’re counting them down.

“All is good apart from the weather and surely this summer will end at some point and the rain will come because we will need it.

“It was a fairly easy watch the Voltigeur for us, nothing too scary came out of that and I think if we can get a bit of ease in the ground then we will be really looking forward to Doncaster.”

The defeat of Lazy Griff’s dual Derby conqueror Lambourn at York saw his Aidan O’Brien-trained stablemate and Goodwood Cup scorer Scandinavia harden as favourite for the final Classic of the year.

The Kingsley Park challenger is now 11-2 second-favourite with the race sponsors, a position Johnston feels is a fair reflection of his claims, as the Middleham handler relishes another crack at the cream of Ballydoyle on September 13.

Johnston continued: “Even before the Voltigeur, I knew where we stood with Lambourn and I could see reasons why we could reverse that scoreline up in distance and on slower ground.

“We have no idea where we stand with Scandinavia and we’re under no illusions that he looks to set a high bar.

“But I do think we’re rightfully second-favourite now and his biggest danger and we’re looking forward to that challenge.”

Aidan O’Brien eyeing Leger date for Derby hero Lambourn

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The Betfred St Leger appears to be the most likely next port of call for Lambourn after the dual Derby winner’s defeat in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York on Wednesday.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien raised Britain’s oldest Classic and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as possible options for his Epsom and Curragh hero prior to his trip to the Knavesmire, but the son of Australia was beaten into fifth place at Group Two level.

The Ballydoyle handler houses the red-hot favourite for the St Leger in Goodwood Cup winner Scandinavia, but Lambourn is also under serious consideration for the Doncaster showpiece on September 13.

O’Brien said: “The Voltigeur was only a sprint down the straight and was a waste of a race really. They only hacked and it was just a day at the races.

“It is very possible that he will go for the St Leger. He didn’t even blow after the race. We just needed to get a race into him.”

On the same day Lambourn could be in action at Doncaster, O’Brien plans to saddle Delacroix for what he hopes will be a third successive clash with Ombudsman in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.

Delacroix was a narrow winner when the pair met in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown in early July, but Ombudsman turned the tables in a fascinating Juddmonte International on Wednesday after the latter’s pacemaker Birr Castle slipped the field before being reeled in late.

Of Delacroix, O’Brien added: “He’s good, hopefully it will be back to Leopardstown and hopefully John (Gosden) and Sheikh Mohammed will come (with Ombudsman), we’ll have something to look forward to then.

“York was just a Mickey Mouse race really.”

Middleham Park happy to be heading straight to Doncaster with Lazy Griff

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Lazy Griff is firmly on course for a third tilt at Classic glory in the Betfred St Leger, as he prepares to head straight to Doncaster.

Charlie Johnston’s charge has performed admirably in defeat on each of his three starts so far this season, finishing second in both the Chester Vase and the Derby before taking third in the Irish Derby, on each occasion chasing home Aidan O’Brien’s Lambourn.

Owners Middleham Park Racing considered a trip overseas in a bid for a Group One breakthrough with Lazy Griff, but have instead elected to keep their powder dry for the world’s oldest Classic on September 13.

“We thought about going to Germany for the race Rebel’s Romance won (on Sunday), but it was quite a warm race and we didn’t really want to leave any Leger chances over there,” said Middleham Park’s Mike Prince.

Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff after his runner-up finish at Epsom
Christophe Soumillon returns aboard Lazy Griff after his runner-up finish at Epsom (PA)

“There’s the Great Voltigeur next week, but we felt there wasn’t going to be enough time between that and Doncaster. I think the ground will be plenty quick at York for him anyway and waiting for September just gives us the chance for hopefully a little bit softer ground if the weather breaks in the next couple of weeks.

“Charlie has had the Leger in mind for him all year and we’ll go straight there now, that is absolutely the plan.”

Paddy Power make Lazy Griff the 7-1 third-favourite for the St Leger, with the O’Brien-trained pair of Scandinavia and his old rival Lambourn the two ahead of him in the betting at 5-4 and 7-2 respectively.

Prince added: “I’d say Scandinavia might be the favourite (to run) out of the two, just because of the trips he’s been running over. I wonder whether they’ll go for the Arc with Lambourn, you never know.

“Whatever Aidan sends will probably go off favourite, whether it’s Scandinavia or Lambourn, and if he sends both then I suspect they’ll both be ahead of us in the market.

Scandinavia will be one of the big dangers to Lazy Griff at Doncaster
Scandinavia will be one of the big dangers to Lazy Griff at Doncaster (Matt Alexander/PA)

“He’s got plenty of ammo, but we’re all geared up and ready to go.”

The Middleham Park team have also started to make plans beyond Doncaster, with Prince saying: “We’ve given him an entry in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot and I suppose the options after the St Leger are that and the Prix Royal-Oak at Saint-Cloud at the end of October.

“It’ll probably be the Leger and then one of those.”

Scandinavia and Lambourn lead 26 St Leger hopefuls

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Goodwood Cup winner Scandinavia heads 26 entries for the Betfred St Leger, the final Classic of the season to be run at Doncaster on September 13.

Aidan O’Brien dominates the potential field numerically with 11 possible runners hailing from his Ballydoyle yard.

Justify colt Scandinavia has been a relatively late bloomer, finishing fifth to Carmers in the Queen’s Vase at Ascot before winning the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket.

He stepped into open company at Goodwood last week and despite being overlooked by Ryan Moore in favour of Illinois, ran out the winner.

His dual Derby-winning stablemate Lambourn would be another huge player if he turns up, as would Whirl, winner of last week’s Nassau Stakes over 10 furlongs at Goodwood.

Galveston, Oaks victor Minnie Hauk, Mount Kilimanjaro, Puppet Master, Saratoga, Shackleton, Stay True and Thrice are other Ballydoyle possibles.

Carmers could have a trip to Yorkshire before his big day, with Paddy Twomey considering the Great Voltigeur Stakes for his prep – or he could stay closer to home.

“if he runs (beforehand) it will be either in the Great Voltigeur or the Vinnie Roe (at Leopardstown) and then the Leger,” said Twomey.

“Those two races are within a day of each other so we’ll see which race looks more suitable.”

Other notable entries include Charlie Johnston’s Lazy Griff, placed in the Derby at Epsom and the Irish equivalent, Tennessee Stud and Arabian Force.

Gordon Stakes victor Merchant was not entered by William Haggas.

Tyson Fury takes centre stage at Doncaster

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Tyson Fury was the star attraction at Doncaster on Saturday, with the former heavyweight world champion on hand to see one of his horses in action on Town Moor.

Accompanied by his wife Paris, Fury watched Big Gypsy King – a winner at Chelmsford on her penultimate start – contest the Unison Campaigning For Public Services Handicap over seven furlongs.

The Oliver Cole-trained filly, who Fury owns with his manager Spencer Brown, was a 7-1 shot to strike gold in the hands of Luke Morris and hopes appeared high beforehand, with Fury telling Sky Sports Racing: “She’s in great shape, she’s running (working) well at the stables, so let’s hope she can put it into practice here today.

“She won (at Chelmsford), she smashed it, so hopefully she can do the same here today at Doncaster.

“We’re here in Paris’ home town, so we want to win today.”

Big Gypsy King, however, did not live up to the billing, trailing home last of 11 runners.

The three-year-old is not the only horse Fury owns, with the 36-year-old adding: “I’ve been around horses most of my life and at the latter end of my career I started getting into a few different horses.”

Not for the first time, Fury announced his retirement from boxing in January after losing his rematch against Oleksandr Usyk by unanimous decision the previous month.

And despite rumours of another comeback, when asked when he would return to the ring, he said: “Never, I’m too old. Look at my beard, all grey. Boxing’s a young man’s game.”

Lazy Griff’s route to Doncaster still open to discussion

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Connections of Lazy Griff have yet to decide whether to give the top-class colt another run ahead of a planned third tilt at Classic glory in the Betfred St Leger.

Charlie Johnston’s three-year-old has bumped into the Aidan O’Brien-trained Lambourn on each of his three previous starts this season, finishing second in the Chester Vase and the Derby at Epsom before making late gains into third place in the Irish Derby.

A fourth clash could be on the cards at Doncaster in September, with Lambourn the 15-8 favourite and Lazy Griff a 7-1 shot for the Leger with Paddy Power – but whether the latter will be seen in action before the Town Moor showpiece remains to be seen.

“He’s fine and back cantering now and I need to have a chat with Mike Prince and the Middleham Park team, just to thrash out what route we’re going to go down,” said Johnston.

“We haven’t come to any firm decisions on that yet, but whatever we do it will all revolve around the Leger, that’s for sure.

“I think we’re probably looking for him to have two more runs this year and it’s just a question of whether we run him somewhere between now and the Leger or we go straight to the Leger and have another run after that at the back-end of the season. That is the conversation that needs to be had.

“He had a couple of easy weeks as the main priority was to get the horse out of Ireland in good shape and back cantering and we’ve done that, so the tough bit now is deciding what to do next.

“They’re nice decisions to have to make, I wouldn’t mind plenty more of them.”

Doncaster Classic firmly on the agenda for unbeaten Carmers

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Paddy Twomey and connections of Carmers are working back from the Betfred St Leger with their Queen’s Vase hero, as they plot the best route to Doncaster in September.

Unraced at two, the Wootton Bassett colt is a perfect three from three this season, most latterly in the Group Three at Royal Ascot, where he showed his stamina for a mile and six furlongs.

“Carmers is in good form. The plan is to go for the Leger and how we get there remains to be seen,” said Twomey.

“The owners are keen on going for the Voltigeur (at York) and there is also the Vinnie Roe in Leopardstown. We could stay at home and just go straight there, so we’ll see.”

Twomey – who said his beaten Ribblesdale Stakes favourite Catalina Delcarpio would be coming back to 10 furlongs – added: “He’s a grand horse and doesn’t show you much at home.

“He went to Ballinrobe and won, eight days later went to Navan and won, a month later went to Ascot and won. It’s hard to find a horse like him.”

Oisin Murphy to continue riding ahead of court appearance

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Oisin Murphy was among the winners at Doncaster on Friday, with the British Horseracing Authority confirming the multiple champion jockey can continue to ride ahead of his court date next week.

Thames Valley Police said in a statement on Thursday that the 29-year-old had been charged in connection with a road traffic accident in Berkshire in April. It is alleged he was over the prescribed alcohol limit and failed to cooperate when asked to give a preliminary test at the scene.

On Friday the BHA said there was nothing to prevent Murphy continuing to ride on an ongoing basis and he travelled to Doncaster for five mounts, winning the Doncaster Racecourse Supporting Racing Staff Week Handicap aboard the Andrew Balding-trained 8-13 favourite Displaying.

The four-time champion is due to be in action at York on Saturday where his six booked mounts include Formal in the Group Three Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes.

Murphy – who rode five winners at Royal Ascot last week – is due to appear at Reading Magistrates’ Court on July 3. He was charged last Thursday, when he rode at double at the showpiece meeting through Arabian Story and Never So Brave.

Roving Reports: And so it begins…

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I suppose of all the places a new venture could begin there are worse ones than Doncaster, particularly as it doesn't mean a near four-hour commute from my house (that will come next week) and I'm on familiar territory, writes David Massey. St Leger Day almost didn't happen, with the morning drive to the track narrowly averting disaster as I fail to spot a flotilla of police motorbikes and Range Rovers tracking up the outside line of the M18, and I just barely avoid absent-mindedly pulling out in front of them as I try and change the station on the radio. As it turns out, this won't be the last time I find myself just in front of the Prime Minister (for it was he) on the day.

I'm with new work partner Vicki today, who has parents that live nearby and, God bless her mum, she's made me a cheese sandwich with a bag of cheese and onion crisps as an accompaniment. I am delighted to report the sandwich was delicious. Mums, eh? I miss mine, but I think I've found a spirit one with Vicki's as that's exactly the sort of thing mine would have done. "You don't need to, Mum, there will be food there." "Well, I've done you a pack-up now anyway. You never know." And even though you do know, you take the sandwich, and it's brilliant.

So anyway, Doncaster is packed with racegoers, which is good, but it does mean our route down to the parade ring from the press room (which is up top) is hard to navigate. We decide a better option is to go the back way, down the stairs, and come out by the weighing room. This works well for much of the afternoon, until the Leger comes around. We want to head to the pre-parade ring but for some reason we can't turn left, the route totally fenced off, and we have to head between the cordon to the parade ring. Everyone is crowding around the barriers as if they're waiting for someone. Imagine their disappointment as Vicki and myself loom into view. It's at this point I realise the PM is probably about thirty seconds behind me, as there are security men surrounding us. "Keep walking, and don't look back!" I shout to Vicki, just behind me. Sure enough, it's not long after we enter the parade ring that Sir Keir makes his appearance. I'm only glad that we didn't get booed as well.

Vicki is on her own on the Sunday at Doncaster. I warn her early there may be a few drops of rain, but not much. I lose count of the number of photos she sends me throughout the day of her in her transparent waterproof poncho, looking more miserable in each one as the day passes, as my weather forecasting skills prove about as accurate as my race-reading ones. I don't think sending her a photo of the roast dinner I'd made for me and the good lady helped matters, either. Still, I was at Leicester on the Monday before and it threw it down all day there when it wasn't supposed to, so let's call it a soggy score-draw on the week and move on.

And so to Yarmouth and the Eastern Festival. All sounds very exotic, doesn't it: an Eastern Festival? Those of a certain age will be reminded of Turkish Delight at this point. I'm reminded exactly how exotic things will be when I swing onto the Road To Kings Lynn (one of Bing and Bob's lesser-known adventures) and a whopping great potato lorry pulls out in front of me. Game over. Just sit tight and enjoy the finest flat scenery Lincolnshire has to offer for the next forty miles. Sadly, the African Violet Centre is still closed. There will be no streptococcus for me this year.

There will, however, be the more common Mcdonaldsus Drivethru'us on the way. As I arrive, the queue in front of me is one car. In the three minutes it takes to get my food, a dozen cars pile in behind me. I take this as a good sign and one that says luck will be on my side this week. I get back on the main road just as another potato wagon pulls in front of me, the good fortune lasting all of thirty seconds.

I'm in my usual B&B at Yarmouth and so are all the others that stayed there last year. It's like time hasn't moved on at all. Which seems appropriate, as there are parts of the town that don't feel like they have evolved much either, probably for about fifty years. Yarmouth is what it is, but it's badly in need of some modernisation. Even Skeggy has upgraded, for crying out loud.

I'll be at the dogs Monday night (I always go early) and Wednesday night and, on Tuesday, I have a meal with Arthur Cooper and Vicki to discuss further business. Many of you will recognise Arthur's Aussie tones - he commentates on the French racing for Sky on occasions - and he has tales to tell, and racing politics to discuss. We put the racing world to rights over a sticky toffee pudding, which is how it should be. It's a pleasure chatting to him, and I look forward to our next meet.

Tuesday's card is probably the least interesting of the three days. The weather is kind, more so than the results, which are a disaster for bookmakers. Yarmouth is a strong ring too - shop around and you'll be betting to less than one percent a runner. The stretchers are out for the books as the fourth favourite on the bounce goes in mid-afternoon. Trade at Fallen Angels could well see a downturn this year. (Google it, this is a family column.)

Vicki is with me on the Wednesday and I introduce her to the bookmaker who goes by the name of Billy Bongo. Vicki has already asked if that's his real name, which caused much mirth. She's disappointed to find out he's actually called Simon, but when I tell her his surname is "Pieman", it takes her a minute to decide that that's also bull. I give her a little quiz on bookies' names and whether they are real or fake, which she fails badly. She has a lot to learn about the layers, although I notice she has her favourites she likes to deal with. They tend to be the younger, better-looking ones. I shall leave it up to you, dear reader, to decide whether this is purely coincidental or not.

It's the East Anglian Derby at the dogs on the Wednesday night and the place is heaving. Luckily I'm on a table upstairs and have Viv Stingray (also not her real name) with us. Viv works at Southwell and has never been to the dogs before. This means I can easily impress her with my limited dog knowledge but by the end of the night she's a convert, even watching old vids of Scurlogue Champ on YouTube, and of course, loving them. How could you not? He's still the most amazing dog I'll ever clap eyes on. (If you've not watched the recordings or heard of him before, go and have a look. And be amazed.) Viv has already decided she's coming again next year.

Thursday, and the 3lb I lost weight-wise last week is all put back on with the final cooked breakfast of the trip. I tell myself I'll be back on the Ryvita tomorrow as I tuck into a third rasher. My luck this week hasn't been so great and I'm down so far, but a decent bet on Redorange at 3-1 helps the bank balance bounce back a bit. At least it's stayed dry this year, if windy. The drive back is a better one than the one coming down; no 'tater wagons on the route at 7pm, see? One last McDonald's for the road, and I'm home for half nine. I've an email when I get back asking me for a ten-to-follow for the jumps season. I've enjoyed the Flat this year but, I have to say, I can't wait to get stuck into the timber-toppers this time around. Especially now I'll actually be able to see them in the flesh rather than just viewing them going to post from the rails. An exciting winter lies ahead...

- DM

Monday Musings: The Jugglers

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The second Saturday in September illustrated how trainers and jockeys’ agents need to be expert jugglers at this time of year, writes Tony Stafford. We had the Irish Champion Stakes, worth a total €£1.15 million (€712k to the winner) and the Betfred St Leger, £830k and £421k to the winner, yet three UK champion jockeys were riding more than 3,000 miles away from either venue.

The trio - Oisin Murphy, William Buick and Frankie Dettori - all lined up in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes for 2yo fillies over a mile and worth £177k at the Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Canada. Buick was on the 4/5 favourite for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby, the dual early-season winner Mountain Breeze, but she could only manage eighth place.

Ahead of her were Murphy, fifth on 65/1 shot Ready To Battle, for dominant local trainer Mark Casse despite being the outsider of his trio; and Dettori was one place behind on the Christophe Clement filly Annascaul, the race second favourite.

He was the only one of our itinerant trio to have a ride in the next Graded race, the Ontario Matron (G3) on the Tapeta track. He finished fourth for Casse who again had three runners without securing the win.

Only five turned up for the E P Taylor Stakes for fillies and mares, run on the turf track. In the past the E P Taylor was a frequent target for UK and especially French runners. It honours the Canadian breeder Eddie Taylor. He stood Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Northern Dancer, the stallion who first tickled the fancy of Vincent O’Brien and led, with Robert Sangster and John Magnier’s help, to the legacy of Sadler’s Wells and, through him, to his even more influential son Galileo.

This year, the E P Taylor was a tame affair considering there was £266k for the winner. Oisin got a ride here but could do no better than fourth of five on Blush for French-based trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias. All three of the visiting riders had been previous winners of the race.

Charlie Appleby and Andrew Balding staged a rematch from a Listed race on King George Day at Ascot in July, with Al Qudra, the winner of that race for Charlie and Will, going into the bet365 <they get in everywhere!> Summer Plate over a mile on the turf as favourite, having beaten New Century by just over two lengths then.

Here Oisin turned the form around on identical terms, winning by one and a quarter lengths from Al Qudra in another Grade 1 again worth £177k, as with the juvenile fillies earlier. The share of the spoils made Oisin’s awayday worthwhile and even in defeat Buick got his mitts on a portion of the 60 grand for second.

The principal reason for the Appleby/Godolphin attack was presumably the featured Rogers Woodbine Mile, with a hefty £355,000 to the winner. The Buick mount, Naval Power, was the 11/20 favourite but finished only fourth to a couple of Mark Casse runners, siphoning up between them a good deal more than half a million Canadian bucks. Naval Power had been a very close second on his previous start when Dettori had the mount in a valuable supporting race on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs in early May.

If you feel sorry for Frankie, the pensioner (in jockey terms) started out the previous weekend looking forward to a hatful of Aidan O’Brien mounts at Kentucky Downs, but only Greenfinch, who finished fourth, ran, the others being withdrawn. But then, a week yesterday at the same track, May Day Ready won a £483k first prize and that was supplemented by a double at the same track on Wednesday. Dettori won the £238k Gold Cup with Limited Liability and then the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational with Kathymarissa and another £720k.

His win prizes amounted to £1,323,000 over the week. No wonder he loves being in the US!

What did they miss while waiting for Saturday in Canada? At Doncaster there was an eighth St Leger win for Aidan O’Brien as the inexperienced and in some ways still green Jan Bruegel edged out Illinois in a thrilling tussle up the Doncaster straight. Both colts are by Galileo and at the final opportunity, his sons dominated yet another English Classic.

Impossible to separate in the market, it looked like a potential dead-heat in the race until Sean Levey, who started out life as an O’Brien apprentice before relocating to the UK, forced his mount’s head in front close to the line.

Behind in third and fourth, also locked together, were Deira Mile and Sunway who crossed the line only a nose apart. I thought it a mealy-mouthed decision by the stewards to turn the form around, denying Deira Mile’s ever-adventurous Ahmed Al Sheikh of Green Team Racing another placed run in the English Classics of which he is so enamoured.

Bay City Roller was a good winner of the Champagne Stakes that opened the card, but it might have been a different story had not Chancellor prematurely burst out of the gate. The Gosden colt, a smart scorer at the track last time, was third at Ascot in the race where Al Qudra beat New Century.

The raft of unlikely horse/trainer/jockey partnerships on this unusual day continued in the Portland Handicap, one of my favourite races with its intermediate sprint distance of around five and a half furlongs.

Here, the unluckiest horse in training, Peter Charalambous’s Apollo One, got the services of no less a partner than Christophe Soumillon. The Belgian, a multiple champion jockey in France, had just got his mount’s brave head in front of a gaggle of horses on the far side when the favourite American Affair flew down under the stands rail under Paul Mulrennan to beat him by a nose.

It was a notable win for Jim Goldie and, given the way he finished on Saturday, the Ayr Gold Cup in five days’ time must have its appeal. Peter Charalambous is adamant he would never ask Apollo One to run in the likely soft ground at Ayr, but it would be nice to think he would win a big sprint handicap before too long.

Over the past two seasons he has finished second in four big sprints, the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup last year and the Stewards’ Cup and Portland in 2024. His total losing distance is barely two and a half lengths in those races.

Irish Champions Weekend featured a fine return to form by the slightly unpredictable but undeniably ultra-talented Auguste Rodin. He ran a great race in the Irish Champion Stakes but just failed to cope with the tenacious favourite Economics.

It had been a brave decision by William Haggas to resist running his colt in the Derby after his sensational <I use the word advisedly> Dante Stakes romp at York and, nicely rested, Haggas had given him an ideal warm-up run at Deauville last month for his main target here.

Economics came from some way back, as did Auguste Rodin. Tom Marquand sent his mount into the lead halfway up the short Leopardstown straight, when it appeared that Ryan Moore on the dual Derby winner was going marginally the easier, even getting his head in front in the last hundred yards. Economics, to his credit, pulled out extra and, despite battling all the way to the line, Auguste Rodin had to be content with an honourable second place.

The path for both horses is set in stone. Economics will now go to the Qipco Champion Stakes for what will be only his sixth career start. Auguste Rodin has the Breeders’ Cup Turf, which he won last year, as his autumn objective.

Just behind in third and fourth were the Japanese horse Shin Emperor, who should make a bold attempt at being the first from Japan to win the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, and fast-finishing Los Angeles, who probably would have fully extended his two stablemates at Doncaster.

His range of entries, from the Champion Stakes (ten furlongs) at Ascot to the British Champion Long Distance Cup (two miles) the same day and, a fortnight earlier, the Arc over one mile and a half reflect his untapped potential and versatility. I’d go the stayers’ route if he were mine – wishful thinking in the extreme!

Yesterday, Messrs Buick and Murphy made it back to the Curragh for the second day of the Irish Champions Weekend. They might not have won as they rode respectively Vauban and Giavellotto into second and third in the Irish St Leger, but at least they got a close-up view of the remarkable Kyprios.

Aidan O'Brien's six-year-old entire was taking his earnings past £2 million with an authoritative performance under Ryan Moore. It was Kyprios' 13th win in 17 career starts. After last year's injury problems and a curtailed season of only two second places, he has now repeated the same first five victories of his unbeaten four-year-old campaign and in the same  races.

That year (2022) he ended the season with victory in the Prix Du Cadran over two and a half miles - by twenty lengths! If he goes there and wins in three weeks it would be a double unbeaten six-timer, four of them at Group 1 level, surely a record, and one that will be exceptionally difficult to match in the future. He deserves to be regarded as at least the equal of Yeats as a stayer. Many will think him superior.

- TS