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Stat of the Day, 11th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 13/8 (Led early, tracked leader until over 11f out, hung left over 1f out, staying on same pace when bumped well inside final furlong, beaten by just over a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

A 5yr old gelding who has 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs on Polytrack including 3 wins and 3 places over 6f and is now back on his last winning mark from when he won a similar Class 2 A/W handicap over this trip at Lingfield.

His trainer, Jamie Osborne is in reasonable enough form having landed 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, he is 26 from 152 (17.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+34.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford, from which...

  • those racing within 15 days of their last run are 12/72 (16.6%) for 21.8pts (+30.3%)
  • over 6f : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.5pts (+33.1%)
  • those ridden by Dougie Costello : 9/49 (18.4%) for 34.8pts (+71%)
  • and racing over 6f within 15 days : 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.8%)

Whilst more generally in UK A/W handicaps over 5f to 8.5f since the start of 2013, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO 2 to 5 days ago are 161/724 (22.2% SR) for 198.1pts (+27.4% ROI), including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 133/590 (22.5%) for 180.2pts (+30.5%)
  • males : 130/559 (23.3%) for 170.2pts (+30.4%)
  • 3-7 yr old males : 105/438 (24%) for 148.9pts (+34%)
  • on Polytrack : 90/416 (21.6%) for 17.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds on Polytrack : 76/339 (22.4%) for 120.4pts (+35.5%)
  • and 3-7 yr old males on Polytrack : 58/244 (23.8%) for 93.2pts (+38.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

2.35 Warwick : Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 Held up behind leaders, went 3rd before 3rd, chased winner after 3 out, hard ridden approaching last, 1 length down and carried right flat, no impression towards finish...

Next up is Friday's...

12.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo A/W Claiming Stakes over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old colt, whose last six outings have seen him make the frame four times, winning on two occasions and taking his A/W record to the point where it now includes the following of relevance today...

  • 2/4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/4 going left handed
  • 1/2 here at Lingfield
  • 1/1 in a claimer
  • 1/1 at Class 6

His trainer, Jamie Osborne's record on the A/W with horses who last ran 1-7 days earlier stands at 34/145 (23.5% SR) for 29.3pts (+20.2% ROI) since 2012, from which...

  • in non-hcps : 20/69 (29%) for 14.35pts (+20.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 22.4pts (+44.8%)
  • in January : 9/35 (25.7%) for 4.23pts (+12.1%)
  • over 7f : 7/28 (25%) for 10.83pts (+38.7%)
  • 3rd LTO = 8/23 (34.8%) for 21.9pts (+95.1%)
  • in Claimers : 8/23 (34.8%) for 12.72pts (+55.3%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 4/16 (25%) for 5.3pts (+33.2)...

...whilst more generally the Osborne / Costello / AW figures are 21/165 (12.7% SR) for 37.7pts (+22.9 ROI) including...

  • 11/70 (15.7%) for 28.14pts (+40.2%) in non-handicaps
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.33pts (+39.4%) in claimers.

And finally...A/W runners sired by Lope De Vega are 47/204 (23% SR) for 216.7pts at an ROI of 106.2% since the start of 2016, from which...

  • on Polytrack : 23/128 (18%) for 150.5pts (+117.6%)
  • 3 yr olds : 25/101 (24.75%) for 50.8pts (+50.3%)
  • Class 6 : 7/24 (29.2%) for 39.3pts (+163.9%)
  • and at Lingfield : 5/19 (26.3%) for 5pts (+26.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.40pm on Thursday with Betfred & Totesport matching that price, but non-BOG until the morning. (5/2 BOG was still widely available at 8.00am Friday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG PU at 5/1  Held up towards rear, pushed along before 11th, soon weakened, tailed off and pulled up before 12th

Next up is Monday's...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo Claimer over 9.5f on Tapeta worth £3,396 to the winner...

And a 2yr old Colt trained by Jamie Osborne, whose Class 4/5 runners here at Wolverhampton are 46/244 (18.9% SR) for 84.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit, in respect of today's contest, those 244 runners are...

  • at Class 5 : 38/198 (19.2%) for 45.4pts (+22.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 38/157 (24.2%) for 103.8pts (+66.1%)
  • unplaced LTO : 28/123 (22.8%) for 124.8pts (+101.5%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 11/1 : 27/102 (26.5%) for 104.5pts (+102.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 14/83 (16.9%) for 25.1pts (+30.2%)
  • this year : 11/47 (23.4%) for 22.4pts (+47.6%)
  • over this 9.5f trip : 10/31 (32.3%) for 11pts (+35.5%)
  • in Claimers : 6/20 (30%$) for 4.4pts (+22%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 3/18 (16.7%) for 10.2pts (+56.8%)

He's also by the sire Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 41/186 (22% SR) for 193.8pts (+104.2%) on the All-Weather over the last two years, including...

  • males @ 35/158 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+90.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 21/66 (31.8%) for 63.3pts (+96%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/61 (26.2%) for 31.6pts (+51.8%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 8/47 (17%) for 21.9pts (+46.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Sunday with the same (but non-BOG) also available from Betfred/Totesport. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG PU at 5/1  Held up towards rear, pushed along before 11th, soon weakened, tailed off and pulled up before 12th

Next up is Monday's...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo Claimer over 9.5f on Tapeta worth £3,396 to the winner...

And a 2yr old Colt trained by Jamie Osborne, whose Class 4/5 runners here at Wolverhampton are 46/244 (18.9% SR) for 84.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit, in respect of today's contest, those 244 runners are...

  • at Class 5 : 38/198 (19.2%) for 45.4pts (+22.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 38/157 (24.2%) for 103.8pts (+66.1%)
  • unplaced LTO : 28/123 (22.8%) for 124.8pts (+101.5%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 11/1 : 27/102 (26.5%) for 104.5pts (+102.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 14/83 (16.9%) for 25.1pts (+30.2%)
  • this year : 11/47 (23.4%) for 22.4pts (+47.6%)
  • over this 9.5f trip : 10/31 (32.3%) for 11pts (+35.5%)
  • in Claimers : 6/20 (30%$) for 4.4pts (+22%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 3/18 (16.7%) for 10.2pts (+56.8%)

He's also by the sire Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 41/186 (22% SR) for 193.8pts (+104.2%) on the All-Weather over the last two years, including...

  • males @ 35/158 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+90.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 21/66 (31.8%) for 63.3pts (+96%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/61 (26.2%) for 31.6pts (+51.8%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 8/47 (17%) for 21.9pts (+46.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Sunday with the same (but non-BOG) also available from Betfred/Totesport. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Wetherby rounds off season in a storm

Jonjo Sanderson pleased with Wetherby season

Wetherby rounded off its season last night with a “summer” evening card. You could have been forgiven for thinking that it was early February, as racing took place under heavy black clouds and torrential rain that turned the going from good to soft in the morning to heavy by the time the horses left the paddock for the first race. Read more

Stat of the Day: 29th March 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 29th March 2012

Well, I drew another blank yesterday as Ay Tay Tate could only manage a third place finish at 100/30. He seemed to have every chance a furlong from home, but didn't have the final burst needed to get home ahead of the field.

I don't like giving the bookies their money back, so I'm looking to find a winner in the North East today. It's a 3-mile, Class 5 handicap hurdle and 13 runners are due to post for the

5.25 Newcastle

Two weeks ago, I put up Tartan Tiger from John (J.J) Quinn's yard as a 13/2 E/W bet at Hexham and he finished second that day, finishing like a train but not quite getting to the winner who he'd let get slightly too far ahead. I posted on 16th March, that I felt the horse would win a 3-mile race fairly soon and his opportunity comes around again today. He's back out at Newcastle, not that far from Hexham and I'm sure jockey Dougie Costello will have learned his lesson about keeping the horse closer to the pace.

I do also have some statistics behind my choice today: it's not a case of just picking it based on that last run. The trainer John Quinn's record at Newcastle is pretty good, despite him not sending many runners to this track. In his career he has saddled 6 winners and 11 placers from just 33 hurdlers: this record reads as 3 winners from 5 in the last 2 years (2 from 2 in handicap hurdles).

We won't however, be getting anything like the 13/2 we took last time around: I expect Tartan Tiger to be in the top 2 in the market and as such, I'm taking bet365's BOG offer of 7/2, but you can always...

Click here to view the best odds on the 5.25 Newcastle.

Sat TV Trends: 28th Jan 2012

Did you know that the last eight Sky Bet Chase winners ALL carried 11-2 or less? Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends that matter ahead of this weekend's LIVE C4 action. Read more

Lingfield Victory For Recession Proof

The John Quinn trained Recession Proof, with jockey Dougie Costello aboard, scored a convincing victory in the louiserose.co.uk Novices' Hurdle at Lingfield on Tuesday.

Lingfield

Lingfield

Held up early in the proceedings, Costello and his mount made good progress after the sixth, travelling well to track the leader three out, hitting the lead after the last to deny race favourite Brackloon High by a length and a quarter, with Latin America a distant sixteen lengths further behind in third place.

"He's a very strong traveller but it was his first time on ground like this and his class got him through," said Costello after the race.

"He can be quite keen, but we tracked Richard Johnson (aboard Brackloon High) quite comfortably.

"He pulled off both his shoes during the race, so I got off him after the line."

Paul Taylor, a member of owner Mrs Stone's large contingent in the winner's enclosure, commented, "He came to the owner, rather than the owner coming to him!

"He was beaten by Dunraven Storm quite easily so we won't fly too high - he's a handicapper rather than championship class."

Midnight Chase Impressive at Cheltenham

Midnight Chase, trained by Neil Mulholland, made just about all for a very impressive victory in the Grade Three Morson Group Handicap Chase at Chelten

Racing at Cheltenham

Racing at Cheltenham

ham.

The eight year old, with jockey Dougie Costello aboard, went to the front early in the proceedings, looking very comfortable and, apart from a couple of mistakes, appeared to have the race in hand.

Recovering from a mistake at the last, he powered home crossing the line eight lengths the better of his closest challenger, Any Currency, with Junior a length further behind in third place.

Winning trainer Mulholland said, "We were due to come back here in December, but there's a possibility we might have to go out of handicaps now.

"We were hoping he could improve and he has done.

"I've stood in the same spot in the weighing room for his last three wins now and I like to keep things the same if I can.

"I'm lucky I've got a good jockey on board so I don't have to worry about things too much but I got more of a thrill watching that than I ever did riding.

"We'll definitely be looking to coming back here some time - he loves it at Cheltenham."

Dougie Costello commented, "He's a specialist around here - he hits the hill here and finds an extra gear.

"Neil is a serious trainer and has done marvellous with this horse."

Midnight Chase Impressive at Cheltenham

The Neil Mulholland trained Midnight Chase made most of the running to give an impressive performance for a victory in the showcase event on the opening day the Cheltenham two day fixture in the Sportingbet.com Handicap Chase.

Cheltenham

Cheltenham

With jockey Dougie Costello aboard, Midnight Chase soon took the lead and, other than briefly being headed by Qulinton, stayed at the front of the field for the duration, crossing the line first by a very easy ten lengths from runner up Lacdoudal, with Ouzbeck back a further one and three quarter lengths in third place.

Winning trainer Mulholland said after the race, "The horse has run here four times, winning twice and being placed the other twice, so obviously he likes the course.

"He will be back in November as he seems to handle any sort of ground."