Punting Angles: Uttoxeter

After a recent focus on some of the UK’s All-Weather courses it’s time to adjust the radar to a little bit of National Hunt racing (I’ll return to the remaining AW tracks of Wolves and Lingfield in due course), writes Jon Shenton. For this edition, I’ve chosen the Staffordshire venue of Uttoxeter to focus upon, the reason being that, based on a quick query (run in Query Tool), this course has hosted the most races in the last few years. More races equals more data, and more data sometimes equals better inferences.

Uttoxeter is probably best known for the second longest race in the UK calendar, the 4m2f Midlands National. The course offers a year-round jumping programme, with 25 scheduled meetings per annum. The summer jewel in the crown is the prestigious and valuable Listed race, the Summer Cup.

Course Map

The course is left-handed and relatively sharp in nature.  It is seemingly synonymous with punishing winter ground meaning the track has a reputation for suiting stamina-laden types. Although, given its relative sharpness, speed is possibly an undervalued commodity, especially on the typically firmer ground during the summer. A single circuit is approximately 1 mile 3 furlongs in length, with an unusual kink in the back straight.


Uttoxeter Trainers

We start, as usual, with a perusal of trainer performance as a way into developing betting opportunities at the track. The table below shows the record of each yard that has had 50 or more runners at the track since 2012, at a starting price of 20/1 or shorter, and with a minimum of 10 victories over that period.


There is some promise in these numbers, with the trio at the top of the list possessing phenomenal records at the track. The IV data confirm that runners from these stables are approximately 2.5 to 3 times more likely to prevail than the average at this venue, and all at a healthy margin, based on A/E or plain old profit and loss.

The Sue Smith, Evan Williams and Harry Fry data also would merit further investigation should time and word count permit, which it doesn’t for this edition, sadly! 

Warren Greatrex

For Warren Gretrex, things aren’t quite as rosy as they might seem from the headline figures, as will become clear below. Firstly, it is notable that his yard hasn’t had a single winner at the course at odds above 10/1. I haven’t shown workings but if you can take that on trust, of the remaining 78 runners we get the following profile by splitting the info by calendar year.



As can be seen, performance has dipped in 2018, and thus far in 2019. In fact, there was not even a solitary placed animal this year until Elleon won on the 16th November at a welcome SP of 15/2. [As was noted in this article, the Greatrex yard suffered a big dip in fortune last campaign, and will hopefully revert to type this term].

Any projected angle from this high-level data comes with a wealth warning then. Taking the overall data at face value, 24 winners from 78 runs, a strike rate of over 30% and a reasonable return all appears to be a rock-solid no-brainer. But two victories from 22 over the last couple of years removes some of the lustre of the overall picture.

Of course, it’s possibly attributable to the usual variance and randomness (as could the over-performance of earlier years be) given the acutely small sample size. It’s the beauty / challenge / pointlessness of using data such as this to base punting on depending on your viewpoint.  I’m firmly in the beauty & challenge camp if that’s not clear enough already.

Presenting the data differently gives an alternative view.  The graph below shows the cumulative return if you had put a £1 win single on every Greatrex runner with an SP of 10/1 or shorter at Uttoxeter since 2012.

It’s not a bad picture is it? In the context of the overall numbers the relative downturn in 2018/19 of 2/22 winners doesn’t look too damaging. The key question is, what is going to happen from today onwards? Clearly nobody knows for sure, but I’d be inclined to treat this data positively, at least for the time being, and especially in light of the recent winner.

However, if that’s not convincing enough, by looking a bit deeper under the surface there are opportunities to potentially improve the chances of success and lessen the risk based on historical data.

The table below shows track performance by the race code/type data for the yard at the course.


Did you spot it? One of those lines is very striking indeed! Chase numbers are fine; hurdle data are competitive, but not micro material. However, the National Hunt Flat race data is exceptional and irrefutably worth tracking. Sadly, for us, the aforementioned Elleon delivered the goods recently meaning a good betting opportunity was missed. The SP of 15/2 is the largest priced winner in the dataset just to add a little bit of salt to the wound!  It does mean that for angle purposes a cap of 8/1 on SP will be used for Uttoxeter runners.

The Greatrex bumper (NHF) record at Uttoxeter is particularly strong, so it is a sensible step to check if the yard performs well in such races generally, or particularly at the Staffordshire venue. Analysing results by course suggests there is some definite further interest.  The below table offers insight:


Your first 30 days for just £1


There is no doubt that performance is strong at the top four listed tracks, arguably five if including Ffos Las. A/E’s of the quartet at the head of the table are all above or equal to 1.22, a nice benchmark.

Is it interesting or coincidence that it could be argued that the top three are all geographically close to the trainer's base (in relative terms)?  Or is it interesting that all the high-performing tracks have similarities in being left-handed sharpish constitutions? Indeed, all of the top five are left-handed circuits.

The absolute, sacrosanct rule on angle building is that every filter used to compile the angle is explainable and must make at least some degree of sense. I am aware enough to recognise entirely that the above conjecture may be stretching that point, but I have the gut feel that there is something worth noting here. Probably more based on the track layout similarities than location; after all, Lambourn to Uttoxeter is a bit of a schlep.

However, I’ll be watching Greatrex bumper entries at these tracks with great (and probably financial) interest over the coming months.

Incidentally no winners have been delivered at SP’s of greater than 15/2 in this data. While that’s risky and arguably somewhat convenient, for pure angle building I’m only going to consider those runners at 8/1 or shorter (but will personally monitor all).



The bottom line is, as always, that it is your call how - and indeed if - to play:  the numbers presented are factual, but whether they are strong enough or reasoned enough for you to part with your hard earned is your choice. Caveat emptor!


  • Back Warren Greatrex horses at Uttoxeter in NHF races where the SP is 8/1 or shorter
  • Take note of all other Warren Greatrex runners at 10/1 or shorter at the course
  • If you feel so inclined, track or back Warren Greatrex runners in NHF at SP’s of 8/1 or shorter in races at Warwick, Stratford and Bangor in addition to Uttoxeter

Dan Skelton

It’s hardly new news that the Stratford-based operation has a prolific and rewarding record at the not-too-distant Staffordshire track; however, it’s always worth delving to establish if any deeper insights can be attained. The first port of call in this instance is by market price (it’s usually the first item I look at), and in the case of this intel there is some enthusiasm for a deeper dive.



The data tell us that  shorter-priced animals outperform the market in terms of A/E, IV and profit (look at that 5.3 IV for animals sent off shorter than 2/1!), whilst the entrants who start at prices of 11/2 or greater just about hold their own. Shorter priced the better, then.

If a lower SP is counter-intuitively a good thing then analysing performance based on market position is a sensible step.  There may be an angle containing the favourite, rather than just short priced animals.


An odds rank of 1 relates to the favourite, 2 is the second favourite and so on.  It is crystal clear that a Skelton jolly at Uttoxeter is a very serious contender, with over half of them delivering, and recording an A/E of 1.29 to boot. Impressive stuff at such apparently such short prices.  It proves that there can be value when fishing at the top of the market on occasion.

Obviously, knowing whether a horse is going to start at the top of the market is a bit of guesswork if you generally back the night before or early on the day of the race, but invariably you win some, you lose some and such things even themselves out over time.

Suggestion: Back Dan Skelton horses at Uttoxeter when they are positioned as SP favourites


Dr Richard Newland

Third on the trainer table is Dr. Richard Newland. The former GP and Grand National-winning trainer (2014, Pineau De Re) has an impressive record at Uttoxeter. However, focusing on the time of year gives a lot of clarity regarding when the real spotlight on his runners should occur.

The graph illustrates the volume of Newland runners at Uttoxeter, as well as the number of winners.  There’s a pronounced focus on summer jumping at the track, particularly in the months of June and July.

This table shows the same data in more traditional format, with the usual supplementary info, as provided by's Query Tool:


Admittedly, highlighting summer jumping prowess at this point in the year is terrible timing, but it’s worth keeping in cold storage until the warmer temperatures return to these lands. Again, Query Tool is your friend!

The summary version of all runners from May-Sep (inclusive) results in the below output.

That’s good enough but further optional sharpening could be attained as there is no runner that has won at odds of greater than 15/2 SP, albeit only from nine attempts (three of which placed).

I get a strong impression that there is more to find with this trainer. From a relatively small number of horses in training this is a yard worth tracking closely and getting to know in closer detail.

Suggestion: Back Dr Richard Newland horses at Uttoxeter over the summer months (May-September) at odds of 15/2 or shorter


Distance nuggets

As ever, let's have a quick hack around some of the race dynamics at the course.

Hurdle races – 2 miles

I’ve concentrated on hurdles primarily due to the volume of data; the chases are a little sparser in frequency so harder from which to draw even moderate conclusions. Initially, then, let's pick up the two-mile distance for larger field sizes (nine or greater) the following profile is generated:

The table illustrates the Impact Value (IV) performance of horses by the various underfoot conditions and by pace profile. The column “races” simply contains the number of races that relate to those going descriptions. This is included primarily to demonstrate the sample size of each data set so you can draw your own conclusions to the relevance when assessing a race.

The data clearly shows that front end pace is important and it’s better to be at the head than biding time in the relative back positions. This is a general truism for all races on all goings at all courses.

There is a suggestion that racing prominently is of greater importance as the ground becomes more testing, with the strongest two numbers in terms of IV relating to leading in Soft (1.81) and Heavy (2.55) conditions, abeit on smaller sample sizes. Making up ground from the cheap seats is tough in all conditions, especially so in the sticky stamina-sapping Staffordshire mud.


Hurdle races – 2m 4furlongs

The data for the two-and-a-half-mile trip is reasonably similar to it’s shorter two-mile counterpart, namely that leaders and prominent racers are generally favoured. The green-tinged data is on the right-hand side of the table where the speed is, the redder/orange numbers relating to horses who are ridden patiently is towards the left. There isn’t the same profile in terms of front-running mudlarks getting an even better time of it, perhaps stamina becomes of greater importance than track position over the extra half-mile. Irrespective of reasons or rationale, backing a horse that is likely to be in the leading ranks seems a sensible approach when assessing a race at this distance.


Hurdles - 3 miles

Finally, a focus on the longer distance of the 3-mile trip. The first thing to say is that there are fewer races at this distance, but there is no doubt that based on the information available, the box seat seems to have shifted towards the prominent racers, not the horses who cut out the running.

Whilst the front runners perform perfectly well on average, it seems logical that to lead without cover for this longer distance is a more difficult proposition. The low sample sizes do not help, but there is a flavour of it becoming increasingly difficult to make all as the ground gets more testing.

Broadly speaking the optimum position is tucked in nicely behind the leaders; however, based on the overall sample sizes it is not a strong conclusion. Taking the good ground data (where there is the biggest sample, 71 races) the pace profile is relatively flat in comparison to some of the numbers we’ve seen on other tracks. However, caution is advised on likely leaders in deeper underfoot conditions.


I hope that is of some use to you over the winter and beyond. Forget the Derby, I’m already looking forward to Dr. Newland at Uttoxeter next summer!

- JS

Cheltenham Showcase Podcast

With thanks to the guys at Old Forge Racing, this shortish audio contains interviews with Richard Johnson, Fergal O'Brien, Harry Skelton, Dr Richard Newland and Tom Scudamore.


Stat of the Day, 5th October 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.00 Hexham : Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, headway from 2 out, in 4th before last, left 3rd soon after last, no impression )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Included @ 7/2 BOG a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £4,289 to the winner...


Here we have a 7yr old mare making a yard debut for Dr Richard Newland, who despite not frequenting Fontwell too often is still 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 1.5pts (+16.6% ROI) with his handicap chasers at this venue since 2012, including 4 from 6 with 6/7 yr olds, 2 from 3 on Good ground and 1 from 1 in October.

He also does very well with horses having their first start for him, especially those fancied by the market, as those sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 11/2 are 39 from 102 (38.2% SR) for 41.8pts (+41% ROI), including the following dozen relevant & profitable angles at play today...

  • 36/84 (42.9%) for 47.7pts (+55.6%) at Class 4/5
  • 35/83 (42.2%) for 46.2pts (+55.6%) over trips of 2m-2m6.5f
  • 22/49 (44.9%) for 32.5pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 21/55 (38.2%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%) at Class 4
  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 19.1pts (+39.8%) with his only runner of the day
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 26.4pts (+58.7%) were unplaced LTO
  • 16/47 (34%) for 11.4pts (+24.2%) with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle
  • 14/31 (45.2%) for 21.3pts (+68.9%) with those rested for less than two months
  • 14/30 (46.7%) for 19.5pts (+65.1%) from those with 20-45 previous career runs
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 1.17pts (+6.9%) in Novice contests
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 4.11pts (+29.4%) over fences
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.7%) during September/October

I found the stat very interesting about him giving a debut to those who had already been around the block several times, as I'm not sure very many trainer could match that kind of record (perhaps I'll research that today?), but all of the above details have...

...steered me towards... a 1pt win bet on Included @ 7/2 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday, although the last two won't actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 2.25 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Chelmsford : Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led early, tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG a 10-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 


I'm going to keep this relatively simple today with the focus falling mainly on trainer and jockey...

Trainer Dr Richard Newland's hurdlers racing over trips shorter than 2½ miles are 107/454 (23.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+17.7% ROI) with those running in conditional jockey races winning 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 25.3pts (+74.4%).

Here at Southwell this year, Richard's hurdlers have finished 31111 with the 80% strike rate generating 1.93pts profit at an ROI of 38.5%.

Since the start of September this year, his hurdlers have won 7 of 18 (38.9% SR) for 4.24pts (+23.6% ROI)

And as it is a conditional jockey's race, we should look at our rider today, who is Charlie Hammond. Charlie has 7 wins from 22 (31.8% SR) for 8.66pts (+39.4% ROI) profit when riding in a conditional jockeys' hurdle contest on a horse trained by Dr Newland since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 4/5 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.66pts (+80.4%)
  • over trips shorter than 2½ miles : 6/13 (46.2%) for 15.51pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 6/11 (54.5%) for 7.45pts (+67.7%) Class 4/5 over trips shorter than 2½ miles at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 8.31pts (+103.8% ROI) with the three losers finishing 223... us... a 1pt win bet on Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms  at 6.30pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 were best priced at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

No joy in Devon on Wednesday evening, as Bang On Time seemed to go wrong a long way from home and was pulled up quite sharply. Hopefully, he's not too bad after that. Up to that point, he looked to have struggled for a while, his jumping was sketchy and he didn't travel well at all.

Depsite May seeming to be fizzling out after an earlier good run, I'm more concerned about the horse than the loss of a point, I can't restore horses' health personally, but I can recoup losses in the future. Hopefully this will start in Thursday's...

7.55 Wetherby:

Which is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on good ground and where I expect Cut The Corner to take the spoils at 5/2 BOG with Bet365.

He won a 21f Tramore handicap last summer and then won on his fourth start for this yard at Warwick 24 days ago. He pretty much threw away the race over 20.5f here last week, but has a great chance off the same mark dropped back to his favoured trip.

Jockey Christopher Ward seems to have developed a good rapport with the horse and hopefully he'll learn from last week when the horse hung badly left in the closing stages enabling Chalk It Down to catch him late on.

That was in Class 3 (0-140) company over the extended 2m4f here and the drop in both class and trip is sure to help Cut The Corner...

...who is trained by Dr Richard Newland, whose NH handicap record since 2009 is excellent, with 121 winners from just 633 (19.1% SR) runners, achieving level stakes profits of 117.6pts at an ROI of 18.6% from blind backing.

In hcp hurdle contests, his runners are 59/328 (18% SR) for 49pts (+15% ROI) profit and in the last 5 years, those hurdlers sent off at odds of Evens to 7/1 are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 45pts (+31.5% ROI).

There's also a precedent in him turning back out so quickly after last Thursday's defeat...

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers aged 3 to 9 running within 7 days of their last outing provided it wasn't their only run in the past 3 months (ie not rusty!) have won 679 of 4440 races (15.3% SR) for profits of 1164.6pts or 26.4% of all stakes invested, which again is pretty impressive from blind backing.

Many of you won't want 11 or 12 bets a week from one microsystem, so you can whittle the numbers down in a multitude of ways, but with today's contest in mind and in decreasing sample size...

  • Classes 3 to 5 : 443/2378 (18.6& SR) for 956.5pts (+40.2% ROI)
  • At trips of 2m to 2m2.5f : 328/2023 (16.2% SR) for 933.8pts (+46.5% ROI)
  • Down in trip by 1f to 7f : 185/1090 (17% SR) for 889pts (+82.2% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds : 158/1034 (15.3% SR) for 1061pts (+103.1% ROI)

You can, of course, mix and match the above to make your own microsystems, which should all make profit at a reasonable strike rate.

At the current odds, we're clearly not getting rich, but I do expect Cut The Corner to win at 5/2 BOG with Bet 365. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.55 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Captain George failed to make the frame at Lingfield, finishing 5th of the 10 runners, yet only a length away from the runner-up. You have to take the rough with the smooth in this game, but I can't help but wonder what might have happened had the jockey not just kept him a bit closer tot he action.

As they rounded the final bend, our mount was well adrift and when asked eventually for an effort picked up the pace really well and finished strongly.

These things happen, I suppose and so we move on to Thursday's runner, who goes in the...

4.30 Ffos Las:

Where 4/1 BOG chance Lysino is course specialist Dr Richard Newland's only runner of the day.

The good doctor is a man you can follow blindly and still make a modest profit in excess of what the banks would give you and that has to be a good starting point. In fact, his overall record is 176 winners from 1030 runners for a strike rate of 17.1%. The level stakes profits from those runners amount to 66.4pts and whilst the ROI of 7.1% isn't massive, it's actually incredibly good from such a large sample size with no filters.

But SotD wouldn't be SotD without my filters, would it? So here goes...

From the full set of 1030 runners, the record with horses priced in the 6/4 to 15/2 bracket is 109/475 (22.95% SR) for 78.9pts at an ROI of 18% and now we're talking. Of those 475 horses, the figures for Ffos Las are 8/15 (53.3% SR) for 29.1pts (+193.8% ROI), of which there were 5 winners from 9 hurdlers (55.6% SR) for 19.6pts (+217.6% ROI) profit.

Lysino has been in excellent form, since a switch earlier in the year to Keith Dalgleish revitalised him. Keith ran him twice on the flat and he was a comfortable winner on both occasions and the ground speed and sharpness gained from that little spell on the Flat has served him well since moving to the Newland yard where he won first time out and was then the runner-up at Fontwell six days ago where he went down by just three parts of a length.

That run at Fontwell was this 5yr old's fourth run in the last three months (1112) and he's turned out quickly again here. I'm not too alarmed about him running for the thord tome in 23 days or for the second time in 6 days as history suggests he'll fare quite well yet again.

In handicap hurdles since 2008, horses aged 5 to 9 with two to five runs in the last three months, running within a week of a top four finish last time out have gone on to win 392 times from the 1480 races where they have been sent off at odds below 12/1.

That's another large sample size with a decent strike rate (26.5% this time!). However, the profits and subsequent ROI are also very good on this occasion with the 298.6pts representing a good return of 20.3% above stakes.

And from the 1480 runners, Dr Newland's record is 9/19 (47.4%) for 4.8pts (+24.9% ROI), whilst Ffos Las has only played host to 24 of the 1480 horses in question. 8 of the 24 (33.33% SR) were winners, though and the 7.2pts profit raised is a more than satisfactory 30% ROI. Incidentally only one horse (Bombadero in October 2013) ran here at Ffos Las and was trained by Dr Newland. It was, of course a winner! 😀

It was also ridden by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who has a decent record when riding the doctor's horses with 29 winners from 118 rides (24.6% SR), the partnership is particularly successful where there's a bit (but not too much!) money around for them, as they are most profitable in the 5/2 to 10/1 region where their 14 winners from 60 rides (23.3% SR) has generated level stakes profits of 34.2pts for an ROI of some 57%.

I'm happy with the main quick returner stat allied tot he trainer's record here at the track and the trainer/jockey partnership figures are an added bonus. Lysino was generally a 5/1 shot when I started typing, but 4/1 BOG is now the best on offer and he's already as low as 100/30 in places. We'll take the 4/1 BOG on offer from Coral as our official price, but the same odds are available from Betfair's Sportbook.

For all the odds from elsewhere, please take the opportunity to... here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

Trainer Stats: 20th Nov 2012

Mullins' Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton has four yards from the flat and four from the NH to look out for this week...... Read more

Trainer Stats: 13th Nov 2012


Is Pipe Heading To Cheltenham In Form?

With this week’s Cheltenham Open Meeting, I thought we’d take a look at how the top yards are performing, plus there are a few others to look out for.... Read more

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 10th Oct 2012

Red-Head Sheena West Is On Fire!

See which handlers have made Andy Newton’s hot trainers list this week. Read more

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 1st July 2012

And so we have a losing month on the score card, as Quintilian was unable to win under a rare moderate ride from Barzalona (only jockey to go far side, well beaten).

We begin July with a clean slate and, due to a friend's 40th birthday celebration, I'm later than usual and have missed the best odds in the…

4.35 Uttoxeter

Dr Richard Newland is a shrewd trainer with his small string of horses, and he fares very well at Uttoxeter. His hurdles form there in the last four years has included eight winners from 31 runners for a profit of 14.17 units.

Today he saddles Changing The Guard, a horse who is yet to win over hurdles from six tries. He'll not get many easier opportunities than this afternoon, where CTG is dropping back in trip and running on his favoured fast ground for the first time over obstacles.

Clearly that is expected to work the oracle as he's been backed from 5/1 into 7/2, and although much of the value has gone, he could still start shorter come off time.

We need to be betting with a best odds guaranteed bookie on this one, in case support for another horse pushes his price back out, but Changing The Guard is expected to run for his life today.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.35 Uttoxeter.

Trainer Stats 22nd Dec 2011

No racing after Thursday for three days, but with nine UK meetings on Boxing Day it could pay to know which trainers head into the festive period in form........... Read more

Sat TV Trends – 17th Dec 2011

Did you know that 5 of the last 8 runnings of the Ladbroke Hurdle were won by a 5 year-old? Andy Newton looks at all Saturday’s TV races........ Read more

Sat TV Trends – 3rd Dec 2011

Will Nicholls Make It Nine Tingle Creeks?

Can Paul Nicholls land the Tingle Creek for a seventh year on the spin? See all the trends ahead of Saturday’s TV races......... Read more