Stat of the Day, 25th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Chelmsford : Molten Lava @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led early, tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG a 10-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 


I'm going to keep this relatively simple today with the focus falling mainly on trainer and jockey...

Trainer Dr Richard Newland's hurdlers racing over trips shorter than 2½ miles are 107/454 (23.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+17.7% ROI) with those running in conditional jockey races winning 12 of 34 (35.3%) for 25.3pts (+74.4%).

Here at Southwell this year, Richard's hurdlers have finished 31111 with the 80% strike rate generating 1.93pts profit at an ROI of 38.5%.

Since the start of September this year, his hurdlers have won 7 of 18 (38.9% SR) for 4.24pts (+23.6% ROI)

And as it is a conditional jockey's race, we should look at our rider today, who is Charlie Hammond. Charlie has 7 wins from 22 (31.8% SR) for 8.66pts (+39.4% ROI) profit when riding in a conditional jockeys' hurdle contest on a horse trained by Dr Newland since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 4/5 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.66pts (+80.4%)
  • over trips shorter than 2½ miles : 6/13 (46.2%) for 15.51pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 6/11 (54.5%) for 7.45pts (+67.7%) Class 4/5 over trips shorter than 2½ miles at odds of 4/1 or shorter : 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 8.31pts (+103.8% ROI) with the three losers finishing 223... us... a 1pt win bet on Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms  at 6.30pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 were best priced at 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

No joy in Devon on Wednesday evening, as Bang On Time seemed to go wrong a long way from home and was pulled up quite sharply. Hopefully, he's not too bad after that. Up to that point, he looked to have struggled for a while, his jumping was sketchy and he didn't travel well at all.

Depsite May seeming to be fizzling out after an earlier good run, I'm more concerned about the horse than the loss of a point, I can't restore horses' health personally, but I can recoup losses in the future. Hopefully this will start in Thursday's...

7.55 Wetherby:

Which is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on good ground and where I expect Cut The Corner to take the spoils at 5/2 BOG with Bet365.

He won a 21f Tramore handicap last summer and then won on his fourth start for this yard at Warwick 24 days ago. He pretty much threw away the race over 20.5f here last week, but has a great chance off the same mark dropped back to his favoured trip.

Jockey Christopher Ward seems to have developed a good rapport with the horse and hopefully he'll learn from last week when the horse hung badly left in the closing stages enabling Chalk It Down to catch him late on.

That was in Class 3 (0-140) company over the extended 2m4f here and the drop in both class and trip is sure to help Cut The Corner...

...who is trained by Dr Richard Newland, whose NH handicap record since 2009 is excellent, with 121 winners from just 633 (19.1% SR) runners, achieving level stakes profits of 117.6pts at an ROI of 18.6% from blind backing.

In hcp hurdle contests, his runners are 59/328 (18% SR) for 49pts (+15% ROI) profit and in the last 5 years, those hurdlers sent off at odds of Evens to 7/1 are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 45pts (+31.5% ROI).

There's also a precedent in him turning back out so quickly after last Thursday's defeat...

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers aged 3 to 9 running within 7 days of their last outing provided it wasn't their only run in the past 3 months (ie not rusty!) have won 679 of 4440 races (15.3% SR) for profits of 1164.6pts or 26.4% of all stakes invested, which again is pretty impressive from blind backing.

Many of you won't want 11 or 12 bets a week from one microsystem, so you can whittle the numbers down in a multitude of ways, but with today's contest in mind and in decreasing sample size...

  • Classes 3 to 5 : 443/2378 (18.6& SR) for 956.5pts (+40.2% ROI)
  • At trips of 2m to 2m2.5f : 328/2023 (16.2% SR) for 933.8pts (+46.5% ROI)
  • Down in trip by 1f to 7f : 185/1090 (17% SR) for 889pts (+82.2% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds : 158/1034 (15.3% SR) for 1061pts (+103.1% ROI)

You can, of course, mix and match the above to make your own microsystems, which should all make profit at a reasonable strike rate.

At the current odds, we're clearly not getting rich, but I do expect Cut The Corner to win at 5/2 BOG with Bet 365. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.55 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Captain George failed to make the frame at Lingfield, finishing 5th of the 10 runners, yet only a length away from the runner-up. You have to take the rough with the smooth in this game, but I can't help but wonder what might have happened had the jockey not just kept him a bit closer tot he action.

As they rounded the final bend, our mount was well adrift and when asked eventually for an effort picked up the pace really well and finished strongly.

These things happen, I suppose and so we move on to Thursday's runner, who goes in the...

4.30 Ffos Las:

Where 4/1 BOG chance Lysino is course specialist Dr Richard Newland's only runner of the day.

The good doctor is a man you can follow blindly and still make a modest profit in excess of what the banks would give you and that has to be a good starting point. In fact, his overall record is 176 winners from 1030 runners for a strike rate of 17.1%. The level stakes profits from those runners amount to 66.4pts and whilst the ROI of 7.1% isn't massive, it's actually incredibly good from such a large sample size with no filters.

But SotD wouldn't be SotD without my filters, would it? So here goes...

From the full set of 1030 runners, the record with horses priced in the 6/4 to 15/2 bracket is 109/475 (22.95% SR) for 78.9pts at an ROI of 18% and now we're talking. Of those 475 horses, the figures for Ffos Las are 8/15 (53.3% SR) for 29.1pts (+193.8% ROI), of which there were 5 winners from 9 hurdlers (55.6% SR) for 19.6pts (+217.6% ROI) profit.

Lysino has been in excellent form, since a switch earlier in the year to Keith Dalgleish revitalised him. Keith ran him twice on the flat and he was a comfortable winner on both occasions and the ground speed and sharpness gained from that little spell on the Flat has served him well since moving to the Newland yard where he won first time out and was then the runner-up at Fontwell six days ago where he went down by just three parts of a length.

That run at Fontwell was this 5yr old's fourth run in the last three months (1112) and he's turned out quickly again here. I'm not too alarmed about him running for the thord tome in 23 days or for the second time in 6 days as history suggests he'll fare quite well yet again.

In handicap hurdles since 2008, horses aged 5 to 9 with two to five runs in the last three months, running within a week of a top four finish last time out have gone on to win 392 times from the 1480 races where they have been sent off at odds below 12/1.

That's another large sample size with a decent strike rate (26.5% this time!). However, the profits and subsequent ROI are also very good on this occasion with the 298.6pts representing a good return of 20.3% above stakes.

And from the 1480 runners, Dr Newland's record is 9/19 (47.4%) for 4.8pts (+24.9% ROI), whilst Ffos Las has only played host to 24 of the 1480 horses in question. 8 of the 24 (33.33% SR) were winners, though and the 7.2pts profit raised is a more than satisfactory 30% ROI. Incidentally only one horse (Bombadero in October 2013) ran here at Ffos Las and was trained by Dr Newland. It was, of course a winner! 😀

It was also ridden by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who has a decent record when riding the doctor's horses with 29 winners from 118 rides (24.6% SR), the partnership is particularly successful where there's a bit (but not too much!) money around for them, as they are most profitable in the 5/2 to 10/1 region where their 14 winners from 60 rides (23.3% SR) has generated level stakes profits of 34.2pts for an ROI of some 57%.

I'm happy with the main quick returner stat allied tot he trainer's record here at the track and the trainer/jockey partnership figures are an added bonus. Lysino was generally a 5/1 shot when I started typing, but 4/1 BOG is now the best on offer and he's already as low as 100/30 in places. We'll take the 4/1 BOG on offer from Coral as our official price, but the same odds are available from Betfair's Sportbook.

For all the odds from elsewhere, please take the opportunity to... here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

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Stat of the Day, 1st July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 1st July 2012

And so we have a losing month on the score card, as Quintilian was unable to win under a rare moderate ride from Barzalona (only jockey to go far side, well beaten).

We begin July with a clean slate and, due to a friend's 40th birthday celebration, I'm later than usual and have missed the best odds in the…

4.35 Uttoxeter

Dr Richard Newland is a shrewd trainer with his small string of horses, and he fares very well at Uttoxeter. His hurdles form there in the last four years has included eight winners from 31 runners for a profit of 14.17 units.

Today he saddles Changing The Guard, a horse who is yet to win over hurdles from six tries. He'll not get many easier opportunities than this afternoon, where CTG is dropping back in trip and running on his favoured fast ground for the first time over obstacles.

Clearly that is expected to work the oracle as he's been backed from 5/1 into 7/2, and although much of the value has gone, he could still start shorter come off time.

We need to be betting with a best odds guaranteed bookie on this one, in case support for another horse pushes his price back out, but Changing The Guard is expected to run for his life today.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.35 Uttoxeter.

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