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Bailey’s Ace Looks Each-Way Shout

The main event at Kempton on Saturday is the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle.

The listed handicap is run over 2m 5f and was won last year in sensational fashion by Nick Williams’ talented gelding Tea For Two. In what appeared to be a competitive renewal, the then six-year-old romped to a 10 length victory. A year earlier the race went to Paul Nicholls with one of his most talented inmates Saphir Du Rheu.

Nicholls has taken two of the last seven renewals, though Nick Williams is very much the most successful trainer in recent times with three wins from the last five. However, he won’t be adding to that tally on Saturday as he has no entries in this year's event. Nicholls on the other hand is likely to be represented by the well-fancied Ibis Du Rheu. The five-year-old ran a promising second at the Hennessy meeting in November, just failing to overhaul Royal Guardsman over a slightly shorter trip. Chances are that the step up in distance will suit, though he has to improve plenty to take this far more competitive affair.

Harry Fry and Philip Hobbs shared honours in the last major handicap when Jolly’s Cracked It and Sternrubin hit the line together in The Ladbroke at Ascot. Sadly Fry’s imposing gelding will miss the remainder of the season due to a tendon injury.

Nevertheless, the Dorset trainer will be hopeful that he can add another prestigious handicap with Unowhatimeanharry currently favourite for Saturday’s showpiece. He won an Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham in December, though that was over three miles. He had been successful prior to that at two and half, and heavy ground holds no fears. The horse is undefeated since joining Fry in the summer.

Yala Enki is another that should enjoy ground conditions. Venetia Williams is often the ‘go to’ trainer when the mud is flying, and this French import has already impressed this winter when cruising to victory at Exeter in November. He was then a little too keen at Haydock in the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle, though he battled on for fifth having looked likely to fade out of sight turning for home. He has a lovely race weight, and looks a serious player.

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This race often goes to unexposed types rather than seasoned handicappers, and Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac certainly fits that description. The five-year-old has only run seven times over hurdles and has a far superior record running right-handed. He won at the track last December and was successful at Huntingdon last time out when having the fast improving Lil Rockerfeller in behind. The ground should be ideal, and it’s no surprise to see him towards the head of the betting.

Dr Richard Newland is always to be respected in these competitive handicaps and he has an interesting contender in the lightly raced Westren Warrior. He’s another who will enjoy the testing conditions; having won an ordinary novice hurdle by miles last time at Lingfield in heavy ground. He’d chased home recent Cheltenham winner Singlefarmpayment prior to that, and clearly that form now looks pretty strong.

Gary Moore can do no wrong this winter, and he has recent course and distance winner Baron Alco entered here. He looks to be improving at a rate of knots and has a tasty pedigree being a son of Dom Alco out of a Network mare. He’ll need to step up again, but looks to have the potential to do exactly that.

Finally a mention for Kim Bailey’s eight-year-old Un Ace. He’s a hugely talented horse who is back over hurdles having had a productive time over fences. Though French bred, he is probably slightly better suited by a sounder surface. However, he has a fair looking race weight and the trip is perfect. He’s run right-handed only twice before and won both times. He looks a decent each-way proposition.

It’s another hugely competitive handicap to get excited about and finding the winner as ever will prove one hell of a task.

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015

No joy in Devon on Wednesday evening, as Bang On Time seemed to go wrong a long way from home and was pulled up quite sharply. Hopefully, he's not too bad after that. Up to that point, he looked to have struggled for a while, his jumping was sketchy and he didn't travel well at all.

Depsite May seeming to be fizzling out after an earlier good run, I'm more concerned about the horse than the loss of a point, I can't restore horses' health personally, but I can recoup losses in the future. Hopefully this will start in Thursday's...

7.55 Wetherby:

Which is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on good ground and where I expect Cut The Corner to take the spoils at 5/2 BOG with Bet365.

He won a 21f Tramore handicap last summer and then won on his fourth start for this yard at Warwick 24 days ago. He pretty much threw away the race over 20.5f here last week, but has a great chance off the same mark dropped back to his favoured trip.

Jockey Christopher Ward seems to have developed a good rapport with the horse and hopefully he'll learn from last week when the horse hung badly left in the closing stages enabling Chalk It Down to catch him late on.

That was in Class 3 (0-140) company over the extended 2m4f here and the drop in both class and trip is sure to help Cut The Corner...

...who is trained by Dr Richard Newland, whose NH handicap record since 2009 is excellent, with 121 winners from just 633 (19.1% SR) runners, achieving level stakes profits of 117.6pts at an ROI of 18.6% from blind backing.

In hcp hurdle contests, his runners are 59/328 (18% SR) for 49pts (+15% ROI) profit and in the last 5 years, those hurdlers sent off at odds of Evens to 7/1 are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 45pts (+31.5% ROI).

There's also a precedent in him turning back out so quickly after last Thursday's defeat...

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers aged 3 to 9 running within 7 days of their last outing provided it wasn't their only run in the past 3 months (ie not rusty!) have won 679 of 4440 races (15.3% SR) for profits of 1164.6pts or 26.4% of all stakes invested, which again is pretty impressive from blind backing.

Many of you won't want 11 or 12 bets a week from one microsystem, so you can whittle the numbers down in a multitude of ways, but with today's contest in mind and in decreasing sample size...

  • Classes 3 to 5 : 443/2378 (18.6& SR) for 956.5pts (+40.2% ROI)
  • At trips of 2m to 2m2.5f : 328/2023 (16.2% SR) for 933.8pts (+46.5% ROI)
  • Down in trip by 1f to 7f : 185/1090 (17% SR) for 889pts (+82.2% ROI)
  • 7 yr olds : 158/1034 (15.3% SR) for 1061pts (+103.1% ROI)

You can, of course, mix and match the above to make your own microsystems, which should all make profit at a reasonable strike rate.

At the current odds, we're clearly not getting rich, but I do expect Cut The Corner to win at 5/2 BOG with Bet 365. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.55 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2014

Captain George failed to make the frame at Lingfield, finishing 5th of the 10 runners, yet only a length away from the runner-up. You have to take the rough with the smooth in this game, but I can't help but wonder what might have happened had the jockey not just kept him a bit closer tot he action.

As they rounded the final bend, our mount was well adrift and when asked eventually for an effort picked up the pace really well and finished strongly.

These things happen, I suppose and so we move on to Thursday's runner, who goes in the...

4.30 Ffos Las:

Where 4/1 BOG chance Lysino is course specialist Dr Richard Newland's only runner of the day.

The good doctor is a man you can follow blindly and still make a modest profit in excess of what the banks would give you and that has to be a good starting point. In fact, his overall record is 176 winners from 1030 runners for a strike rate of 17.1%. The level stakes profits from those runners amount to 66.4pts and whilst the ROI of 7.1% isn't massive, it's actually incredibly good from such a large sample size with no filters.

But SotD wouldn't be SotD without my filters, would it? So here goes...

From the full set of 1030 runners, the record with horses priced in the 6/4 to 15/2 bracket is 109/475 (22.95% SR) for 78.9pts at an ROI of 18% and now we're talking. Of those 475 horses, the figures for Ffos Las are 8/15 (53.3% SR) for 29.1pts (+193.8% ROI), of which there were 5 winners from 9 hurdlers (55.6% SR) for 19.6pts (+217.6% ROI) profit.

Lysino has been in excellent form, since a switch earlier in the year to Keith Dalgleish revitalised him. Keith ran him twice on the flat and he was a comfortable winner on both occasions and the ground speed and sharpness gained from that little spell on the Flat has served him well since moving to the Newland yard where he won first time out and was then the runner-up at Fontwell six days ago where he went down by just three parts of a length.

That run at Fontwell was this 5yr old's fourth run in the last three months (1112) and he's turned out quickly again here. I'm not too alarmed about him running for the thord tome in 23 days or for the second time in 6 days as history suggests he'll fare quite well yet again.

In handicap hurdles since 2008, horses aged 5 to 9 with two to five runs in the last three months, running within a week of a top four finish last time out have gone on to win 392 times from the 1480 races where they have been sent off at odds below 12/1.

That's another large sample size with a decent strike rate (26.5% this time!). However, the profits and subsequent ROI are also very good on this occasion with the 298.6pts representing a good return of 20.3% above stakes.

And from the 1480 runners, Dr Newland's record is 9/19 (47.4%) for 4.8pts (+24.9% ROI), whilst Ffos Las has only played host to 24 of the 1480 horses in question. 8 of the 24 (33.33% SR) were winners, though and the 7.2pts profit raised is a more than satisfactory 30% ROI. Incidentally only one horse (Bombadero in October 2013) ran here at Ffos Las and was trained by Dr Newland. It was, of course a winner! 😀

It was also ridden by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies who has a decent record when riding the doctor's horses with 29 winners from 118 rides (24.6% SR), the partnership is particularly successful where there's a bit (but not too much!) money around for them, as they are most profitable in the 5/2 to 10/1 region where their 14 winners from 60 rides (23.3% SR) has generated level stakes profits of 34.2pts for an ROI of some 57%.

I'm happy with the main quick returner stat allied tot he trainer's record here at the track and the trainer/jockey partnership figures are an added bonus. Lysino was generally a 5/1 shot when I started typing, but 4/1 BOG is now the best on offer and he's already as low as 100/30 in places. We'll take the 4/1 BOG on offer from Coral as our official price, but the same odds are available from Betfair's Sportbook.

For all the odds from elsewhere, please take the opportunity to...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Sam’s summer keeps Bob -ing along

Bobowen (l) takes it up at second last

Bobowen (l) takes it up at second last

Trainer Dr Richard Newland went all out to capture the Betfred Summer Plate at Market Rasen on Saturday, and his three pronged attack saw Bobowen easily land the spoils, coming home nine lengths ahead of Wooolcombe Folly, trained by Paul Nicholls. Read more

Trainer Stats: 20th Nov 2012

Mullins' Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton has four yards from the flat and four from the NH to look out for this week...... Read more

Trainer Stats: 13th Nov 2012

 

Is Pipe Heading To Cheltenham In Form?

With this week’s Cheltenham Open Meeting, I thought we’d take a look at how the top yards are performing, plus there are a few others to look out for.... Read more

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 10th Oct 2012

Red-Head Sheena West Is On Fire!

See which handlers have made Andy Newton’s hot trainers list this week. Read more

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 1st July 2012

And so we have a losing month on the score card, as Quintilian was unable to win under a rare moderate ride from Barzalona (only jockey to go far side, well beaten).

We begin July with a clean slate and, due to a friend's 40th birthday celebration, I'm later than usual and have missed the best odds in the…

4.35 Uttoxeter

Dr Richard Newland is a shrewd trainer with his small string of horses, and he fares very well at Uttoxeter. His hurdles form there in the last four years has included eight winners from 31 runners for a profit of 14.17 units.

Today he saddles Changing The Guard, a horse who is yet to win over hurdles from six tries. He'll not get many easier opportunities than this afternoon, where CTG is dropping back in trip and running on his favoured fast ground for the first time over obstacles.

Clearly that is expected to work the oracle as he's been backed from 5/1 into 7/2, and although much of the value has gone, he could still start shorter come off time.

We need to be betting with a best odds guaranteed bookie on this one, in case support for another horse pushes his price back out, but Changing The Guard is expected to run for his life today.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.35 Uttoxeter.

Trainer Stats 22nd Dec 2011

No racing after Thursday for three days, but with nine UK meetings on Boxing Day it could pay to know which trainers head into the festive period in form........... Read more

Sat TV Trends – 17th Dec 2011

Did you know that 5 of the last 8 runnings of the Ladbroke Hurdle were won by a 5 year-old? Andy Newton looks at all Saturday’s TV races........ Read more

Sat TV Trends – 3rd Dec 2011

Will Nicholls Make It Nine Tingle Creeks?

Can Paul Nicholls land the Tingle Creek for a seventh year on the spin? See all the trends ahead of Saturday’s TV races......... Read more

Late Rally Gets Act Of Kalanisi Novices’ Hurdle Victory

A determined late burst of action from the Dr Richard Newland trained Act Of Kalanisi saw him get to the line first for a victory in the sportingbet.com Novices' Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.

Newbury

Newbury

Richard Johnson was aboard the seven year old and the duo were always close to the action, leading and then headed in the last 120 yards, to provide a late rally to cross the line three quarters of a length in front of Secret World, with race favourite Dona nine lengths behind in third place.

Winning  jockeyRichard Johnson was given the ride replacing Brian Hughes who could not get to the track in time for the event.

Newland, trainer of the winner, commented, "Brian was stuck in traffic but it was great to get Richard and he's very good at that sort of ride.

"I thought he might stay better than the other horse and he won over two and a quarter on the Flat, so I'll probably step him up in trip for another novice."