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Dream Lays Review: Final

Dream Lays Final Review

The trial of Dream Lays ran its course over three and a half weeks, and below is my final review.

Before I tell you what I thought, first let me remind you about what the Dream Lays service is.

Dream Lays is, unsurprisingly, a laying service. That is, it seeks to find horses who have a lower chance of winning than their odds suggest. It then suggests these horses are opposed, or layed, on the betting exchanges.

The service only seeks to 'play' when the odds of recommended horses fall into certain odds parameters, as follows. There is a low range and a high range and, at the low end, subscribers would oppose horses priced between 5.9 and 7 (or 4.9/1 and 6/1)  on the exchanges. The high range is between 12 and 17 (or 11/1 and 16/1 in Betfair terms).

Each day, there are around ten to fifteen possible selections, and this is whittled down to roughly three to five daily after the odds consideration has been applied.

Dream Lays subscriptions are monthly, quarterly or annual, with a sliding scale of price depending on how long you sign up for. The monthly ticket is £59, the quarterly £139, and the annual price is £399.

The easiest way to use this service would be with a bot, where one would simply enter the horses and the ranges and allow nature to take its course. Failing that, there is a requirement to track the pre-race markets to check the odds. In fact, there is a slightly bigger (and more universal) problem than that.

It is recommended that subscribers back horses only where their Betfair SP resides within a certain range. Unfortunately, the actual Betfair SP is not known until after the race has started. Consequently, it is quite possible to occasionally bet horses outside of the range when your bot (or your judgment) says the horse will be within the Betfair SP scope.

There has been a number of instances where a horse ran at odds of around 5.91. It is not possible to 'guess' ahead of time which side of the odds cut off these horses would fall, so some small variances from the 'official' results line may be had. In fairness, these things do tend to even themselves out and actually, during the trial, a number of winning (and therefore losing for subscribers) horses fell just inside the range.

It may have been possible in these cases to 'dodge the bullet'.

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That observation aside, how did Dream Lays perform? In a word, reasonably. It is my intention in these reviews to give my view on both the trial performance and the likely overall performance. In so doing, I aim to mitigate any short-term triumph or disaster to some degree by projecting forwards. That is clearly more judgment than science and should be taken as such.

However, I have been reviewing betting systems for a good few years now, so my judgment is quite good. 😉

During the trial period, the service has been extremely regimented in its promise to have selections online by 11.30 am GMT, and receives a tick for reliability there.

The actual selections have shown a loss over the trial of £14.70, or 1.47 points. Considering the ranges in which horses are laid, this is negligible. However, it is a loss and that means it is not a profit. (Well done, Einstein! 😉 )

During the trial, some interesting points have been raised about the parentage (if that's the right word) of Dream Lays. A couple of readers have observed how similar - in terms of the selections - it is to another service called It's Lay Time.

I put that to the Dream Lays service provider, Alan, and he told me that this was more than just coincidence. In fact, it transpires that the two services are owned, according to the information I have at least, by ex-business partners, and therefore a shared algorithm is in use here.

However, I'm not entirely satisfied by this, as both websites were registered on the same day (17th March 2007), and both websites retain the same registration details. This implies, and no more than that, that any business partnership that may be present here remains in situ.

In other words, two services advertised separately of each other, despite being related, will bring in more revenue than one... especially if the second one can generate publicity from a re-launch.

Now, with my marketing hat on I 'sort of' salute that. After all, if you subscribe to both, you will realise immediately what is happening and claim a refund on one of the two services. But... if I'm right - and there's no conrete evidence that I am - then the service providers haven't been entirely honest with me.

Anyway, as I say, this is more conjecture than fact on my part, and I offer to you as such.

Do note that Dream Lays has more selections than It's Lay Time, and therefore has different results. This means that, even if the services are still from the same 'stable, that you're getting more action with Dream Lays.

For the trial then, I'll give Dream Lays a 6/10. It's done moderately, and a single winner either losing or falling just the other side of the odds parameters would have seen the service record a profit.

But what about the long-term success prospects? I think they're OK for those who don't mind volatility. Let me expand on that.

Dream Lays has been running since February and in that time has racked up a claimed profit of just over 300 points. My brief search on the internet cannot find a review older than mine, and I'm not certain that results have been proofed anywhere, which means it is impossible for me to categorically state they are accurate and true.

However, again, I have no reason to suggest they're not. But the volatility may well put many off. When you lay a horse at 16.5, and it wins, it is not just one's bank that takes a big hit. It is also one's confidence. This did happen once during the trial, and it will of course happen more often over time.

I would be recommending a deep enough bank with this service: maybe 100 points up to 150 points for the cautious. And, if you have the misfortune to join on a day when a big priced winner (and therefore loser for subscribers) hits the board, you will need discipline.

Overall, the service is easy enough to follow if you accept that you may not get exactly the same results as are displayed (due it not being possible to project Betfair SP), and if you're comfortable with volatility, and if you're fine with the notion that this may be a hybrid of another service which is still available, you might try this one.

That is a lot of 'if's' there, which means my overall rating for Dream Lays is 5/10. There are simply too many question marks over the service for me to be comfortable recommending it to readers.

I sincerely hope the service proves me wrong but, on the evidence I have, it's not one that will make it into the Geegeez portfolio.

Matt

Dream-Lays – Update 12

The first 'nasty' for Dream Lays, as City Of The Kings won at a Betfair SP of 13.08. It was propped up a little by three losers but a ten point loss on the day.

15:00 NAbb Lord Lescribaa 2nd 6.6 +£9.50
15:15 Ripn City of The Kings 1st 13.08 -£120.80
20:10 Wind Gwilym 4th 6.01 +£9.50
20:25 Carl Destiny's Dancer 2nd 6.47 +£9.50

Weekend Total: -£92.30

Cumulative Total: -£119.10

Now twelve points down overall. Not insurmountable, but an uphill struggle for Dream Lays for the next week or so...

Dream Lays – Update 11

A catch up from the weekend today, and it's been a reasonable time with just one loser for Dream Lays and numerous winners, as follows:

Friday
14:45 Gdwd Pastoral Player   21st 15.0    +£9.50
15:25 Gdwd Acrostic          14th 13.0  +£9.50
15:25 Gdwd Oasis Dancer 13th 6.2         +£9.50
16:35 Gdwd Diamond Geezah  2nd 6.71    +£9.50
16:45 Thsk Tabaret     2nd 6.38   +£9.50

Saturday
15:05 Gdwd Strawberrydaiquiri     4th 6.4   +£9.50
16:25 Donc Ice Diva     7th 6.4    +£9.50

Sunday
14:45 Newb Dashing Doc 1st 6.93  -£59.30
15:30 Ches Quest For Success 2nd 13.0  +£9.50
15:40 MRas Ursis 6th 14.31    +£9.50
15:50 Newb Whodahought 7th 6.2   +£9.50
16:30 Newb Becqu Adoree  4th 12.48   +£9.50
16:40 Ches Ice Viking 3rd 6.27   +£9.50
16:40 Ches Raktiman 7th 16.0   +£9.50

Weekend Total: +£64.20

Cumulative Total: -£26.80

Incredibly, the service is almost back to parity again, having been over £200 (or 20 points down) at one point. A good week will see Dream Lays back in front again.

Dream-Lays – Day 10

Five star performance from Dream Lays yesterday, with a nap hand of turned over horses:

14:20 Strf Ladies Best 3rd 6.43 +£9.50
15:25 Gdwd Tactic 9th 6.96 +£9.50
16:00 Gdwd Motrice 3rd 13.5 +£9.50
20:30 Muss Elijah Pepper 7th 6.96 +£9.50
20:40 Epsm Flouncing 2nd 6.4 +£9.50

Daily Total: +£47.50

Cumulative Total: -£91

The Dream Lays deficit continues to diminish...

Dream-Lays – Day 9

Another Dream Lays day, another two winners for us, which now sees the story thus:

14:10 Gdwd Markington 12th 12.5 +£9.50
16:35 Gdwd Royalorien 9th 6.45  +£9.50

Daily Total: +£19

Cumulative Total: -£138.50

The race to break even is on, though it will be surprising if Dream Lays can make it. I hope I'm wrong.

Dream-Lays – Day 8

A small claw back yesterday for Dream Lays. Three winners (not four as advertised on DL results page), as follows:

14:00 Bevl Dubai Glory 5th 5.99 +£9.50
14:10 Gdwd Almiqdaad 4th 6.8 +£9.50
17:05 Gdwd Straight Line 3rd 6.85 +£9.50

Daily Total: +£29.50

Cumulative Total: -£157.50

It would be a minor miracle for Dream Lays to salvage parity from this trial, but that's not yet impossible...

Dream-Lays – Day 7

Another losing day for Dream Lays, with Whispering Spirit the fly in the Yarmouth ointment yesterday.

14:15 Yarm Thoughtsofstardom 8th 12.17 +£9.50
14:30 Wolv Whispering Spirit 1st 6.55 -£55.50
15:15 Yarm Dazzling Valentine 6th 6.8 +£9.50
16:45 Yarm Fathsta 3rd 6.15 +£9.50

Daily Total: -£27

Cumulative Total: -£187

Onwards and downwards?

Dream-Lays – Day 6

Saturday and Sunday for Dream Lays below.

Saturday was a losing day, with a 6.6 winner (and loser for us) partially offset by three losers (and therefore winners for us)

15:50 Asct      Mac's Power   18th 13.28 +£9.50
15:50 Asct     Tagseed  21st 13.51     +£9.50
16:25 Asct     Cape Blanco  2nd 5.94     +£9.50
16:40 Newc     Skyfire  1st 6.6 -£56

Sunday was a decent day with four winners and no losers again:

14:40 Pont Regal Lyric 7th 13.0 +£9.50
15:00 Carl More Than Many 7th 14.06 +£9.50
16:35 Asct Opera Gal 2nd 6.4 +£9.50
16:35 Asct Ouster 6th 14.0 +£9.50

Weekend Total: +£10.50

Cumulative Total: -£160

So, Dream Lays continues to claw back the deficit but there is still much work to be done.

Dream-Lays – Day 5

Day 5 for Dream Lays and, after Thursday's nightmare, a good response yesterday.

15:20 Asct I'm A Dreamer (IRE) 5th 6.83 +£9.50
15:55 Asct Keenes Day (FR) 7th 13.5 +£9.50
18:10 NmkJ La Concorde (FR) 2nd 14.85 +£9.50
19:30 York Bikini Babe (IRE) 6th 6.0 +£9.50

Four unanswered winners for Dream Lays, making the daily and cumulative totals as follows:

Daily Total: +£38

Cumulative Total: -£170.50

Dream-Lays – Day 4

More of a nightmare than a dream for Dream Lays yesterday, with heavy losses incurred as four of the six selections won (thus lost for us).

15:20 Sand Lily Again 1st 6.6 - £56
17:00 Sand Twilight Star 12th 5.94 +£9.50
17:10 Bath Mandhooma 7th 14 +£9.50
17:10 Bath The Name Is Frank 1st 6.2 - £52
18:40 Epsm Brynfa Boy 1st 6.2 - £52
19:25 Donc Whirly Dancer 1st 6.6 - £56

Daily Total: -£197

Cumulative Total: -£208.50

As things stand, Dream Lays will fare pretty well to regain parity within the review period and, at this stage, looks precariously poised. We wish it better fortune today.

Dream-Lays – Day 3

The first losing day for Dream Lays, as Zigato obliged at 6.9 Betfair SP.

Story now looks like this:
15:20 Worc Dan Maguire 6th 15.5 +£9.50
15:40 Catt Hypnosis 7th 16.07 +£9.50
16:30 Ling Zigato WON 6.9 -£59

Daily Total:-£40

Cumulative Total: -£11.50

How will Dream Lays respond today? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

Matt

Dream Lays Service Preview

Dream LaysThere's been a lot of hooplah in recent days / weeks about a service called Dream Lays.

As the name suggests, it's a laying service, which looks to oppose named horses between specific odds parameters.

The selections are available on a special members' site, at or before 11:30 GMT each day.

The cost is £59 for a month, or less for longer subscription periods (£139 for three months, or £399 for a year), so it's not the cheapest service available. But price is relative to value and the quoted historical performance is vastly impressive.

In fact, Dream Lays quotes over £30,000 profit (to £100 stakes) for the year to date. That's over 300 points, which means even if you lay to £10 stakes, you'd be £3,000 in front.

Now whilst I've no particular reason to question the historical performance of the service, I also have no information that supports these statements. So I'd advise readers to track the service's progress here over the next month or so, before committing. (Alas, if you follow my advice you'll only get the selections retrospectively).

Monday saw two selections run at Windsor, and both get beaten, at Betfair SP's of 16.33, and 6.75. And yesterday's sole qualifying selection, Sabratha, could manage no closer than fourth at Betfair SP of 7.4, making it three from three so far.

As you can see, some of the horses chosen are pretty big prices, so you'll need a bank (probably 75-100 points) and good nerves if you plan to actually watch the races! (That said, yesterday's trio of winning losers managed to get no nearer than seventh).

Dream Lays looks to be a serious service for the long term, so I'd advise taking a quarterly subscription as and/or when you decide to get involved. But, as I say, track it here for a while first!