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Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.35 Kempton : Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead and edged right over 1f out, ran on to win by a length) Nice to get a winner early in the week, gives us some "free hits".

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old filly, who was a Class 5 winner last time, albeit almost six months ago. She was pretty comfortable over 1m2f that day and many of her most recent efforts have suggested today's step up in trip will suit her.

She's by a sire you've all heard of, Frankel and although his progeny tend to get to overbet due to his own legendary stature, those offspring have still proved profitable to follow blindly, clocking up 257 winners from 1199 (21.4% SR) runs.

I'd never suggest backing all 1199 blindly, but if you had, then a £10 level stake on each would have seen you walk away with profits of £1253, a useful 10.5% return on your money for simply spotting Frankel's name.

As usual, I'd suggest applying some logical filters to the main dataset and in the context of today's race, those 1199 baby-Frankels are...

  • 190/866 (21.9%) for 200.7pts (+23.2%) on the Flat
  • 187/749 (25%) for 69.1pts (+9.2%) at Classes 2 to 6
  • 87/403 (21.6%) for 106.3pts (+26.4%) in handicaps
  • 36/119 (30.3%) for 192.6pts (+161.9%) after a 5 to 10 month break
  • 15/63 (23.8%) for 169.9pts (+269.7%) over a 1m6f trip
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 184.6pts (+879.2%) after a break of 5 to 6 months
  • and 8/24 933.3%) for 54.9pts (+228.9%) here at Yarmouth

Advice? Back Frankel's offspring in Class 2-6 Flat handicaps as they are 54/221 (24.4% SR) for 129.2pts (+58.5% ROI)

She is trained by Charlie Fellows and was initially flagged up by my settings in the excellent Geegeez Query Tool Report, which told me that Charlie had a runner in a Class 5 handicap. I look out for such runners because they are 31 from 180 (17.2% SR) for 26.1pts (+14.5% ROI) since 2015, a nice steady little angle that, with today's race in mind, has produced...

  • 28 winners from 119 (23.5%) for 50pts (+42%) at odds of Evens to 8/1
  • 19 from 96 (19.8%) for 45.9pts (+47.8%) during May to September
  • 16 from 91 (17.6%) for 16.6pts (+18.2%) with Stephen Donohoe in the saddle
  • 10 from 45 (22.2%) for 13.5pts (+29.9%) with female runners
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 6.15pts (+32.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.66pts (+18.4%) here at Yarmouth

Advice? Back Charlie Fellows' Class 5 handicappers sent off at Evens to 8/1 during May to September for 16 winners from 63 (25.4% SR) for 41.8pts (+66.4% ROI) since 2015

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Dubious Affair @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Skybet & Hills at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!