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Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd 2f out, ridden and no chance with winner over 1f out, plugged on)

Next up is Friday's...

5.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6, Amateur Riders Handicap for 4yo+ over 1msf on Good ground worth £3369 to the winner... 

Why?

In a race seemingly full of out-of-form horses, our boy's 5 length success at Haydock LTO 15 days ago stands out like a relatively sore thumb. That was another amateur riders' contest, but at a higher grade than today and the jockey from last time, Emily Easterby, retains the ride seeking her fourth win on this horse.

Emily doesn't get too many opportunities to display her talents, but over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're halfway through this one!), she has won 7 of 47 (14.9% SR) Flat handicaps for profits of 13.22pts at a healthy ROI of 28.1%, and of those 47 rides...

  • Class 6 : 4/24 (16.6%) for 6.98pts (+29.1%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/19 (21.1%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at 1m2f to 1m4f : 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.17pts (+209%)
  • and in Class 6 Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.98pts (+158.2%)

As for today's trainer, Emily's father, Tim Easterby : he's been in decent touch of late with 25 winners from 139 (18% SR) generating profits of 54.47pts (+39.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long term his Class 4 to 6 runners here at Ayr are 24/153 (15.7% SR) for 36pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • males at 20/111 (18%) for 44.2pts (+39.8%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.18pts (+46.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.22pts (+38%)

...and male LTO winners running 11-20 days later are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 11pts (+157.2% ROI)...

The LTO winner stats are interesting (to me, anyway!), as in 2018 alone Tim's LTO winners are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.49pts (+39.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 13.4pts (+63.8%) this Flat season
  • 6/12 (50%) for 19.97pts (166.4%) just 11-20 days after their last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.16pts (+74.2%) on good ground
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.96pts (+99.4%) who won by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) f0r 10.08pts (+252%) at Class 6
  • and 1/1 for 8.46pts here at Ayr...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 9.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Double Dutch, 23rd June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd June 2015

Le Notre showed his inexperience at Wolverhampton yesterday, firstly by being slow away from the stalls and then pulling hard and running green, but showed signs of future ability as he managed to stay on into third place.

He was beaten by just over six lengths in the end, with our first pick Zamperini landing the spoils at a well supported 11/8.

Unfortunately that's as good as it got and we were well beaten at Windsor later in the evening. Tilstarr and Dutch S finished 4th and 7th of the 7 runners, beaten by 3.5 and 9.5 lengths respectively to end our hopes of a winning start to the week.

Monday's results were as follows:

Zamperini : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Le Notre : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Tilstarr : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Dutch S : 7th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
604 winning selections from 2127 = 28.40%
190 winning bets in 551 days = 34.48%

Stakes: 1101.50pts
Returns: 1212.08pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +110.58pts (+10.04% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Tuesday's chosen races are as follows...

4.15 Beverley:

By no means the best race on the card, but one that should offer Duke of Yorkshire some reward for his recent good/improving form. He has finished third and then second in his last two outings, both here at Beverley and both at 1m2f, so we know he gets the track. He has been staying on quite strongly towards the finish, which suggests the step back up to 1m4f is the right thing to do now.

This is also backed up by the fact that his wins to date have been at 1m4f and 1m6f and off marks of 65. He's now rated 62 and looks weighted to finally get his nose back in front, which probably would have happened last time out, had he not run into the in-form Tin Pan Alley. If you think Duke of Yorkshire can go one better today, you can back him at 3/1 BOG.

Slightly ahead of him in the market is current 11/4 BOG favourite Gang Warfare, who should come on for having had a first run for new handler Simon Crisford almost four weeks ago at Sandown. That came some 225 days after his last run for Olly Pears and although beaten into 6th place of 13, he acquitted himself well enough to get within 5 lengths of the winner.

He was staying on well at the finish of that 1m2f contest and doing all his best work in the closing stages, having been outpaced in the midsection of the race, suggesting that he, too, would be better off stepping up to today's 1m4f. He's entitled to be fitter/stronger for having had the run and if Simon's different approach has eked any further improvement from him, then Gang Warfare could very well get off the mark today.

*

7.30 Newton Abbot:

John Ferguson's runners are in good nick at present, consistently averaging around a 30% strike rate and allied to the yard's 5/17 record over hurdles here, any Ferguson runner at Newton Abbot is worth a second look. As it happens, if the team want to take any prize money home tonight, they'll have to do it via Dubai Prince, their sole runner of the day.

They do, however fare very well on those 1-runner days and in Dubai Prince, they have a horse with excellent ground speed (dual winner in Gr3 flat contests at 7 & 9f)  that made the transition to hurdling with ease. He's already won three times over timber, been deemed good enough to contest a Grade 1 last summer and caught the eye when finishing third at Stratford a little over three weeks ago.

He was only beaten by just over two lengths having been headed at the last when tiring, which he was entitled to do after an absence of 303 days. He'll strip fitter for the run and this represents a drop in class for him. The only thing I find surprising here is that Dubai Prince is available at 2/1 BOG.

And that's probably due to the presence of former course and distance winner Collodi who showed signs of a return to form at Stratford last time out. He stayed on well from the back of the pack to work his way through the 10-runner field to finish second, just two lengths off the winner Kapstadt who was completing back to back wins after having own over today's track and trip.

Collodi was conceding 17lbs to the winner that day, but now finds himself towards the bottom of the weights in this one. Although lacking the same Flat pedigree as the main selection, he was useful enough and had decent runs over a mile or so, suggesting if push comes to shove, he might be able to quicken late on, if the pace hasn't been too fast early on. If kept a little closer to the action today, he could well upset the odds at 3/1 BOG here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Gang Warfare / Dubai Prince @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power, Coral)
Gang Warfare / Collodi @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Duke of Yorkshire / Dubai Prince @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor, Hills, Betfair)
Duke of Yorkshire / Collodi @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Bet365, Hills, Betfair)