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Stat of the Day, 18th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.25 Haydock : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5 (Keen behind leaders, took closer order travelling well 2f out, ridden and led just over 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard and we see a 7 yr old gelding coming off the back of two good runs and hailing from an in-form yard (we had a Haydock winner with Ed de Giles yesterday too).

I spoke about the trainer's form yesterday, so having had just the one (winning) runner yesterday, there's no need to go back over it, the numbers speak for themselves.

Zlatan was only beaten by a length staying on over 1m2f last time out on ground that was possibly a little too quick for him eleven days ago. The extra yardage and the cut in the ground here might just be enough for him to go one better this afternoon and his trainer does like to send horses back out fairly after a decent effort.

In fact, since the start of 2016, Ed de Giles' handicappers sent back out within a fortnight of a top three finish LTO are 30 from 82 (36.6% SR) for 47.93pts (+58.5% ROI) at odds of 7/1 or shorter, including...

  • 22/58 (37.9%) for 30.19pts (+52.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 23.28pts (+70.5%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 12/34 (35.3%) for 13.46pts (+39.6%) at Class 5

...whilst LTO runners-up competing for less than £4k are 13 from 25 (52% ROI) for 25.1pts (+100.4% ROI), all at Class 5 or worse including 5 from 14 at this grade...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.00 Hamilton : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Overall leader centre, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, soon edged left, kept on one pace)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

An initial glance at the racecard shows a horse that has been running well and now drops two classes after finishing fourth 20 days ago. We also see immediately that Ed de Giles has his string in decent nick with 3 runners and 3 placers from 14 in the past month.

The bottom of the card tells you how our Speed Ratings rank the runners, as this is a good pointer over shorter trips.

And then we take a look at the pace/draw heatmap and for this type of contest, he's probably been drawn as well as he could be for his normal style of running...

...whilst Instant Expert (I usually start with place form over the last 2yrs, but feel free to use your own parameters) shows a line of green, suggesting we should at least be there or thereabouts today...

All of which is possibly enough to warrant a bet, but I'll wrap up with a closer look at the horse's suitability for the task ahead, starting with a look at his overall record in handicaps to date...

...which includes of relevance today...

  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 24.84pts (+146.1%) at 1-25 days since last run
  • 7/14 (50%) for 20.21pts (+144.3%) over 6 furlongs
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 19.03pts (+146.4%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.1%) for 13.94pts (+107.2%) off a mark (OR) of 75-89
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.74pts (+186%) at Class 4

...whilst running over a 6f trip off a mark of 75-89 at 5/1 or shorter within 25 days of his last run, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 11.13pts (+185.5% ROI), with a 2 from 3 record at Class 4 and a runner-up finish in his sole defeat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday although Bet365 were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!