Posts

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.45 Goodwood : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Flat handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £9,452 to the winner...

Why?...

Another crack at landing a Glorious Goodwood winner, but not quite at the same level as yesterday's contest, but every race has a winner so let's see what the racecard tells us at first glance......

So, briefly from above, a yard in form with a reasonable enough record at this track from a small number of runners and the yard also does well in sprints and also with LTO winners.

The horse looks like one of the speedier ones, according to the SR figures and whilst Hollie Doyle has no form icons by her name on the card, there's no doubting her talent and she tends to ride the Archie Watson horses well as I'll hope to highlight shortly.

But first, the horse herself, a 3 yr old filly, who has three wins and three places from her last seven starts and a good overall return of 5 wins from 14 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 at 5f, 5/8 at odds below 9/1 and 4/6 at Class 3-5 (but also has won at C2)
  • 2/5 in cheekpieces, 2/2 under Hollie Doyle's steering and 1/2 here at Goodwood
  • 1/2 on good ground and 1/2 over course and distance (also at Class 3)

And now, I'll finish off with a quick look at the afore-mentioned record of trainer & jockey together. In the context of this race, I'd tend to focus on the Watson / Doyle combination in Class 3-4 handicaps with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter and doing so gives me 18 winners from 49 (36.7% SR) for 36pts profit at an ROI on 73.4%, including at play today...

  • 15/37 (40.5%) for 36.83pts (+99.6%) during the 6 months from May to October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 25.41pts (+121%) at 21-45 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 22.36pts (+131.5%) during May-Oct at 21-45dslr (*this looks like an MO)
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 15.64pts (+9.7%) from female runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.15pts (+58.2%) from LTO winners (better than the yard's overall LTO winners) 
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.43pts (+62.9%) at Class 3
  • and 1/1 here at Goodwood from this horse's 6/1 win three starts ago

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 6.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.