Tag Archive for: epsom horse racing tips

Sat TV Trends: 3rd June 2023

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It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Did you know that 19 of the last 21 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 13 of the last 21 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

Supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it!

We've got all the main trends and stats to help you find the best profiles of past winners of the LIVE ITV Epsom races.

EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

12:50 – BETFRED Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

19/19 – Had won over at least a mile before
17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Aged 5 or older
12/19 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Trained by the Crisford stable

1.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

20/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
19/21 – Raced no more than 5 times before
19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/21 – Had won a Group race before
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
14/21 – Won last time out
13/21 – Won from a single-figure stall
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
12/21 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
10/21 – Irish-trained winners
8/21 – Had won a Group One before
7/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
7/21 – Won by the favourite
5/21 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/21 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
5/21 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
4/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/21 – Won over 1m4f before
1/21 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/21 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7-12 (5 of the last 10 from stalls 10 (2) or 12 (3))
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 7+
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby 

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020

2.10 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4

20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
17/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/20 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/20 – Aged 4 years-old
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/20 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/20 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Tom Marquand (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
The last 10 winners were drawn 8 or lower (7 of the last 10 drawn 5 or lower)

2.45 Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4

No previous  runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 0 from 15 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track

3.20 – Aston Martin "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats

18/20 – Didn’t win last time out
18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
16/20– Unplaced favourites
15/20 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
15/20 – Came from stall 8 or higher
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/20 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/20 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/20 – Winning favourites
Mokaatil won the race in 2021

3.55 – Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y ITV4

20/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Had won over 1m before (6 over 1m2f)
17/20 – Never run at Epsom before
14/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
13/20 – Placed last time out
12/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
11/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Favourites that were placed
8/20 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/19 – Won their previous race
3/20 – Winners from stall 1
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/20 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 5)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 20 runnings

4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

9/9  - Aged 6 or younger
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/9 – Winning favourites

5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

9/9 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
7/9 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by John Spearing
2/9 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 5)
2/9 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 4)
Mr Wagyu won the race last year

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Epsom TV Trends (Fri 4th June 2021)

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It’s day one of the two-day Epsom Derby Meeting this Friday (4th June 2021). The Cazoo Oaks is the third English Classic of the season and the highlight on the day’s action, but there is also a top supporting card that includes the Group One Coronation Cup.

Like all big race days here at GEEGEEZ we are on-hand with all the key stats for all the LIVE ITV races.

 

Epsom Horse Racing Trends

Friday 4th June 2021

 

2.00 – Cazoo WOODCOTE EBF STAKES (Conditions Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
14/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Yet to win over 6f
9/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
10 of the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)

 

2.35 – CORAL 'Beaten By A Length' Free Bet Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 114y ITV

15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Had won between 2-5 times before
12/17 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Carried 9-1 or more
7/17 – Raced at the track before
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
9 of the last 12 winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting

 

3.10 – CORAL CORONATION CUP (Group 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

19/19 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
18/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/19 – Favourites placed
11/19 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
10/19 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (four won)
8/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2017)
8/19 – Won their last race
8/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Had run at Epsom before
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011 & 2017)
1/19 – Winners from stall 1
Note: The 2020 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.45 – Cazoo Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m2f

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Rated between 86-98
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
7/17 – Had raced at the track before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
Sky Defender (22/1) won this race in 2020

 

4.30 - Cazoo Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

19/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/19 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
16/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/19 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
12/19 – Won from stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites that were placed
11/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/19 – Irish-trained winners
5/19 – Returned a double-figure price
5/19 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/19 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/19 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 14 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 8 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 7 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11/1
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 19 runnings