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Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th September 2015

We failed to land the "treble of doubles" yesterday,. but not before the 5/1 Ballykan became our 5th winner on the bounce this week to maintain the Twiston-Davies yard's fine recent form.

This meant that by the time they set off at Kempton, we were holding tickets for doubles at 26/1 & 38/1 and it was the latter of the two that we came closest to collecting.

That said, both El Campeon (5th and bt by 6.25L) and Knight Music (10th and by by 10.5L) were disappointing, failing to see out the trip fully as they both faded from contention in the final furlong from promising positions.

So, the mini-run of form ended there and we'll now need to start a new one!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Ballykan : WON at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Mile House : UR at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
El Campeon : 5th at 11/2 (adv 9/2)
Knight Music : 10th at 2/1 (adv 7/2)

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Results to date:
667 winning selections from 2385 = 27.97%
211 winning bets in 618 days = 34.14%

Stakes: 1235.50pts
Returns: 1335.94pts
P/L : +100.44pts (+8.13% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday takes us to the following contests...

3.50 Epsom :

Royal History is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, whose runners are 9/22 in the last fortnight and he'll be ridden by the in-form Aiden Coleman who has 8 wins from 24 in the same time frame, making them the most likely to prevail here at 3/1 BOG.

Today is Royal History's handicap debut as he steps up in trip and with the yard having a 20.1% strike rate with handicap debutants over the last eight seasons, you can expect a decent run here, especially considering that 25.6% of the Suroor handicap debutants win when stepped up in trip by 1 to 3 furlongs.

Serenity Now has a fair few more miles on the clock, but comes here in the peak of his form having finished 1112 in his last four outings and only touched off by half a length last time out over 1m6f. Prior to that he had won over today's trip and the drop back should help here.

He might only have 4 wins from 24 starts overall, but those races can be assessed based on today's conditions as follows : 4/16 running 7 to 30 days after his last run, 4/13 in handicaps, 4/10 in fields of 8 to 10 runners and 2/6 at this trip. He has won at Hexham in the past, which is probably the most similarly undulating track to Epsom he'll have encountered and I think Serenity Now stands a decent chance at 5/1 BOG.

*

6.55 Laytown :

I love watching the races from Laytown and even more so when there's a chance fo finding a winner! USA has the benefit of running in this race in each of the last three seasons, emerging with one win and one runner-up finish. Nina Carberry was on board for that win and she's back in the saddle again today and at 2/1 BOG USA has to be on the shortlist.

Talented Kid, however is rated 15lbs better than USA and even further clear of the rest of the field and although he seemed to lose his way in the UK after winnnig a Windsor maiden for Mark Johnston, he did eventually achieve a mark of 90, suggesting there's definitely some ability there.

He ran well enough on his debut for his new yard last time out and providing another 9-month layoff hasn't had too much effect on him, he should be suited by conditions and Talented Kid would just be my marginal pick at 2/1 BOG.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Royal History / Talented Kid @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Coral)
Royal History / USA @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Serenity Now / Talented Kid @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Serenity Now / USA @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2015

Monday's race developed into something of 4-horse race and despite leading for a large chunk of the contest, Passover didn't have enough in reserve to hold on and was eventually the last home of that leading quartet.

He was beaten by 4 lengths at the same 5/2 price we'd taken and was a disappointing end to another tremendous month that saw us hit 10 winners from 24 for 24.58pts profit. That's eight profitable months so far this year!

A full monthly breakdown of SotD is available here and a quick glance at that shows that in 2015, we are 65/193 (33.7% SR) for 105.55pts (+54.7% ROI) and in the last three months the figures are 30/72 (41.67% SR) for 67.07pts (+93.2% ROI)!

That, of course, is the past and September is a new month, so it would be nice to kick off with a winner in the...

3.35 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

Unfortunately, it's not a great day stats-wise, but one that I think could be the answer in Mick Channon's 3yr old gelding, Harlequin Striker, who will be ridden by Charlie Bishop and is priced at 100/30 BOG in at least three places to land back to back wins within 3 weeks.

Not all jockeys are able to keep their horses on a true line here at Epsom, but Charlie Bishop does seem to do pretty well here and is 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 38.8pts (+323.3% ROI) profit on this track over he last two seasons. He's 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 24.3pts (+303.7% ROI) on horses priced at 7/1 and shorter, of which handicappers are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.1pts (+235% ROI).

Trainer Mick Channon has also tasted success here and since 2009, his runners are 19/152 (12.5% SR) for 13pts (+8.6% ROI) here on the Downs. Those priced at 8/1 or shorter are 15/83 (18.1% SR) for 12.2pts (+14.7% ROI), whilst those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 (25% SR) for 14.1pts (+70.5% ROI) with all 5 winners coming from the 16 runners (31.25% SR) priced at 8/1 and shorter for profits of 18.1pts (+113.1% ROI).

In handicaps here with horses priced at 13/2 and shorter the Bishop/Channon partnership is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 10.9pts at an ROI of 99.1%.

As for the horse, Harlequin Striker, he is 1 from 3 on this track, having won here almost a year ago over course and distance on the first occasion that Charlie Bishop rode him (they're now 2/6 together). The horse is 3/10 at 7/7.5f, 1 from 1 on soft ground and has won at a higher grade than this (also under Charlie Bishop!).

Harlequin Striker has finished 112 when sent off shorter than 4/1 and with his three career wins coming off marks of 75 (twice) and 78, today's OR of 77 looks promising. He has won 2 of 3 starts in the month of September and is three from nine when turned out 9 to 29 days (19 today) since his last run.

He was a winner at Ffos Las last time out and now returns to Epsom for a crack at landing a second course and distance win for Mick Channon, whose runners returning the scene of a CD win after a win anywhere LTO are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+68.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) for 16.6pts (+166% ROI), whilst 7f runners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 13.6pts (+169.6% ROI).

So, that's where we're at for today : no big blockbuster stat to rely on, but a series of smaller stats that when taken together suggest a run for our money at the very least from Harlequin Striker.

I'm going with Hills for my 100/30 BOG bet today, but to see which other firms are matching that price...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

Your first 30 days for just £1

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015

Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.

There's something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don't pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we'll finish with a handsome profit from the month.

I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the...

4.45 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.

In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)

Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today's 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.

In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding's runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).

Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).

All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely...

  • all over 1m2f
  • all in races of 7 to 11 runners
  • all within 30 days of his last run
  • all wearing a hood
  • all wearing a tongue tie
  • and all below 7/2

I've taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they'll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th July 2015

Even after a 10p Rule 4 deduction, both our runners in our opening race smashed their SP, with First Sargeant performing best for us, wining by 2.25 lengths at 7/4. That gave us almost 1.75pts running on to the later race at Sandown, where...

...we also had a 10p Rule deduction to contend with, but once again we were comfortably well ahead of SP as Decorated Knight just about got the better of Pyjama Party in the closing stages for a 1-2 finish for us and a 7.95/1 double on the day with the added bonus of a 3.4/1 exacta.

Obviously we'd have been better off had Pyjama Party been able to hold on, but beggars can't be choosers and it was at least good to break the run of near misses.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

First Sargeant : WON at 7/4 (adv 11/4 = 99/40 after R4)
Invigorate : 6th at 5/2 (adv 7/1 = 6.3/1 after R4)
----------------------------------------------------
Decorated Knight : WON at 5/4 (adv 7/4 = 63/40 after R4)
Pyjama Party : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 10/3 = 3/1 after R4)
The exacta was worth 3.4/1 here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
639 winning selections from 2249 = 28.41%
202 winning bets in 583 days = 34.65%

Stakes: 1165.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +125.28pts (+10.75% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's selected races are...

4.35 Nottingham :

One Pekan interests me here, as he's only raced four times (3 x C2 and a C3 LTO) since winning a Class 3 handicap over today's trip at Epsom 11 months ago. He performs well on any ground condition, but wouldn't mind a bit of rain and it's quite possible he'll get some. He has been running well enough of late at a higher grade, including a 2 length defeat in third place in a £32,000 race at Chester two starts ago. He now drops to Class 4 racing after 7 runs in better company and that has to give him a real chance at 7/2 BOG.

I don't see the favourite to be the one to challenge him either, as I expect Royal Altitude to be the main rival here. He carries very little weight thanks to his 10lbs weight for age allowance and if he comes here in the same frame of mind as his last outing, where he was only beaten by 1.25 lengths behind an 85-rated runner with no allowances, then he should be in the mix again and if that's the case, then Paddy Power's 5/1 BOG might prove to be very generous indeed.

*

8.40 Epsom :

Guiding Light looks the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG, hailing from the in-form Andrew Balding yard who have had 17 winners from 85 (20% SR) in the last month and are 5/20 in the last week. The horse has won two of his last three starts and acts on most ground conditions. The same jockey is on board as when he was last seen winning by 11 lengths on soft ground at Chepstow six days ago.

The main danger will probably come from the 7/2 BOG Dear Bruin who was also a winner last time out, as recently as Saturday when scoring by five lengths on good to soft ground at Lingfield. It's no coincidence, that she too is turned out so quickly under a penalty before any reassessment kicks in and she'll want to continue her recent progressive form that has seen her finish 3321 since being fitted with cheekpieces.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

One Pekan / Guiding Light @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
One Pekan / Dear Bruin @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Royal Altitude / Guiding Light @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Royal Altitude / Dear Bruin @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Hills)

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th July 2014

No joy on an incident packed day yesterday, I'm afraid.

Firstly, a 10lb pull in the weights wasn't enough to get Phase Shift ahead of Tender Surprise and even a late burst towards the line wasn't enough to enable Yasir to snatch the race either. Two creditable finished (2nd & 3rd), but no winner, meant the double was gone, before we got to race 2 at Worcester.

Cresswell Prince did win, as I expected him to, but the manner of the result wasn't quite what I predicted. Unfortunately Casey Ryback stumbled 6f from home when in contention and took another runner out, leaving just 3 to contest the closing stages. Cresswell Prince had the race pretty much in the bag, despite idling on the run in and then suddenly veered violently left towards the paddock.

Thankfully, jockey Sean Bowen had his wits about him and just about got his horse straight again and worked him home to win by four lengths, but finishing way across the track from the paddock. A tough ride for Sean.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Yasir: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 11/4)
Phase Shift: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
---------------------------------
Cresswell Prince: won at 5/4 (adv 6/4)
Casey Ryback: fell at 7/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
292 winning selections from 1027 = 28.43%
97 winning bets in 268 days = 36.19%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 538.00pts
Returns: 613.28pts

P/L : +75.28pts (+13.99% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here's how I intend to play Thursday's meetings...

2.25 Leicester:

Two winners and two placers from seven runners in the last few days suggests that Eve Johnson Houghton's horses are belatedly coming into some form. She runs British Embassy here, who showed more promise in finishing second on his handicap debut at Pontefract nine days ago than he had in three previous maidens combined. He seemed to relish the step up to 6f that day and the way he finished would suggest that today's extra furlong will be even more to his liking.

That Pontefract outing was a much tougher (C4) race than today's Class 5 race and the winner from that race was only narrowly defeated in another Class 4 event yesterday at Catterick. Provided the extra furlong is to his liking, you'd have to think British Embassy stands a decent chance at 2/1 BOG.

Cafe Cortado may well have won last time out, but that was a poor seller at Yarmouth and my preference here is for Groor. On the face of it, a record of 770 is uninspiring, but trainer James Tate's horses are in good nick and the booking of Ryan Moore to ride in interestingly positive. Ryan has a good record both at this track and on board the Tate horses, not that he sees many of them! Ryan is 5/11 (2/2 this year) on the Tate string with a perfect 5/5 record in handicaps (2/2 this year) and rides a horse that ran well on his second outing to suggest he'll win races.

He might well have finished 7th of 14 at Sandown, but was beaten by less than 4 lengths, despite being blocked off on the rail late on. He was a length behind Diaz that day, who has since stepped up to Class 4, where he has won one of two races (2nd in the other). Groor's connections think he has something about him, enough to run him in the Chesham at Royal Ascot four weeks ago and although well beaten (no disgrace in that!) looks a cut above most of these here and could well be the winner at 9/4 BOG.

*

7.50 Epsom:

Dalgig very nearly pulled off a pillar to post victory here over course and distance a week ago, but was collared really late on by the progressive and aptly named Last Minute Lisa who was in the process of landing her third win in four outings. She runs in the 6.10 race here tonight, so that could be of interest. Dalgig runs off the mark tonight, so will be at least be competitive and if allowed an early lead and the chance to dominate once again, that tactic could well work for him second time around at 11/4 BOG.

Dalgig might well still be a maiden after eight attempts and normally you'd become wary of backing him by now, but his recent form is actually his best. He returned in June after an absence of almost 9 months (in which he was gelded) to run third at Lingfield. He was then third again at the same track before running second here last week, with the margins of defeat getting smaller and smaller each time. Jamie Osborne's horses have been amongst the winners of late (7/33 in the last month) and 5lb claimer Cam Hardie is no mug and is riding well.

The danger would appear to be Stockhill Diva, who will hope to inflict another late defeat on Dalgig, running on late from a held up position. She's 61313 since being stepped up to today's trip with both wins coming from her two efforts on good ground, so trip and conditions are ideal for her. She probably should have won last out at Windsor, but looked to be worried out of it coming between horses late on, going down by just half a length. If I Were A Boy was just a neck ahead of her and has since gone on to lose narrowly (SH) and then win narrowly(NSE) in her two subsequent outings at this trip.

A repeat of her recent form would be enough for Stockhill Diva to take this, providing she copes with a 2lb rise in weight, which would make the 100/30 BOG available in places look quite generous.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

British Embassy / Dalgig @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)
British Embassy / Stockhill Diva @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Groor/ Dalgig @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : generally)
Groor / Stockhill Diva @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th July 2014

We were a matter of both seconds and inches away from another good day yesterday, but I suppose those are the fine margins we deal with in this fascinating sport we love so much.

Race 1 was a strange affair in a way. Ryan Moore's mount Enobled (one of our picks) became a non-runner late in the afternoon and Kieren Fallon, the jockey of our second horse, Genius Boy had just been stood down for the rest of the day.

This meant that GB's price was cut from our advised 5/2 to 6/2 via a 40p Rule 4 deduction and that Ryan Moore took the spare. He did so to good effect, getting Genius Boy home after a bit of a battle with the runner-up and a drift out to 2/1 was most welcome.

All of which meant we headed over to Naas, holding half of a double and two possible singles. This race also proved to be a close encounter, but we got on the wrong side of the decision this time. Vector Force was caught with around 50 yards to run and went down by a head after being heavily backed from our advised 13/8 to a measly 10/11.

Perhaps we all thought he'd not get beat!

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Genius Boy: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2, but 6/4 after R4)
Enobled: non-runner (adv 7/4)
---------------------------------
Vector Force: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 13/8)
Derulo: u/p at 10/3 (adv 7/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
284 winning selections from 1005 = 28.26%
92 winning bets in 262 days = 35.11%

Stakes: 526.00pts
Returns: 590.08pts

P/L : +64.08pts (+12.18% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

There's a good quality card at Newmarket today, but it look ultra competitive, so we'll chance our arm elsewhere with these...

4.05 Nottingham:

Where a slight change in conditions should suit Khatiba at 5/2 BOG. She ran well enough last time out to finish 4th at Goodwood, but she was only just over a length and a half off the winner in a tight finish. Prior to that outing, she had two runs at Kempton, winning one and finishing as runner-up in the other. With just three runs under her belt, she's by far the least exposed here and steps have been taken to overcome a couple of small flaws highlighted by her career so far.

She has run a little green/distracted in the past and her yard are applying a hood to help prevent a reoccurrence of that and she hasn't yet proved to be strong enough in a finish in each of her three runs to date, all over 7f. To this end, she's dropped down to 6f where she could very well be the latest winner at Nottingham for Roger Varian whose horses are 7/18 at this track when priced at 4/1 or shorter.

At 13/2 BOG, Ruby's Day might look like a bit of a punt and is admittedly a fair bit longer than my recent successful selections, but two factors come into play here. Firstly, I think she's overpriced and secondly, I think she'll go off at a price much nearer to where we normally play. She has run in much better company than this and won at Ripon back in April on her seasonal reappearance, when she finished strongly to lead late on over 5f. It looked like she wanted/needed further that day and although she hasn't reproduced that form in her two runs since at higher marks, I think the step up to 6f will suit her here.

Interestingly, the in-form (6/21 last week) Adam Kirby has been booked to ride this in place of the amateur who had been on board previously and with Ruby's Day being eased back to that last winning mark, they really could spring a surprise or two today.

*

6.40 Epsom:

The expensive Maftool will undoubtedly win races for Godolphin in the future, but I'm passing him over on his debut in favour of stablemate Super Kid, just as trainer Saeed bin Suroor seems to have done via his jockey bookings. Andrea Atzeni gets the nod ahead of Harry Bentley here on board a horse who caught the eye when finishing well to place third on debut. That was four weeks ago at Nottingham and it took a little while for the penny to drop, but when it did this well-bred (Exceed and Excel!) colt finished like a train and stayed on strongly to go down by just over two lengths.

Sugar Lump finished half a length in front that day and has since gone to win at Salisbury, so the signs are good for Super Kid here at 13/8 BOG for a yard and jockey both in good form of late.

The main threat should come from the filly (so 5lbs better off!) Publilia, who if anything was even more impressive on her debut at Leicester a fortnight ago. Seriously under-rated and overpriced by the market, she almost defied her 25/1 odds to win at the first attempt, but was overhauled very late on to get beaten by just a neck to a horse that had already had the benefit of three starts before that day. She looks like a typical Mark Johnston improver and could well land this at 7/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:

Khatiba / Super Kid @ 8.19/1 (5/2 & 13/8 : BoyleSports)
Khatiba / Publilia @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : BetFred, BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Ruby's Day / Super Kid @ 17.75/1 (13/2 & 6/4  : Hills)
Ruby's Day / Publilia @ 18.25/1 (6/1 & 7/4 : generally)

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2013

A reader was wondering on Saturday whether I'd lost some faith in my own selections, I assure you all that is certainly not the case, although the performance of our latest runner was very trying indeed.

I've watched the race a few times now and I've decided to put it down to experience, as "one of those things". Briefly, and for the record, Living The Life was backed in from our advised 9/4 down to even money and then stumbled out of the stalls giving her rivals a good head start.

She raced keenly/strongly to make up lost ground, passed all before her whilst running fairly wide and erratic and then opened up a commanding (or so it seemed) lead with less than 3 furlongs to go. It was after the 2 pole that she started to run out of steam and Greensward came from a virtual mile back to snatch the race in the shadow of the post.

Had the race been 50 yards shorter, we'd have had a nice win, 50 yards longer and she'd have lost by more than a length. These are the margins we deal with, I suppose. Anyway we're off to the home of The Oaks and The Derby today for the...

2.15 Epsom

And whilst this isn't quite up to Derby or Oaks standard, it's a n interesting race nonetheless. We've got a 2yr olds Class 4 Nursery over 7 furlongs to contend with and the preference today is for Andrew Balding's handicap debutant Mime Dance.

Andrew has a really good record in recent years with horses making their handicap debut. Since the start of the 2010 campaign 18 of his 96 handicap debutants priced under 12/1 have gone on to win: that's a strike rate of 18.75% and is responsible for fantastic profits of 50.85pts, or 53% of stakes invested. Andrew also has a 24% strike rate with all his runners at this track in the last two years when priced in general SotD territory ie below 8/1.

Mime Dance has progressed well in three Class 5 maidens finishing 331, culminating in a course and distance win here 16 days ago. He has also run in a Class 2 maiden in the race immediately before his first victory. He wasn't at all disgraced that day either, finishing 5th of 17 and beaten by 5 lengths at 25/1. The mere fact that he contested that event suggests he's destined for better things than this Class 4 level.

That recent course and distance win was on softer ground than today, but he has also run well here over C&D on good to firm ground when 3rd behind Fire Fighting and Peak Royale who have both also gone on to score since.

An opening mark of 74 seems fair and talented jockey Thomas Brown is also able to take a further 3lbs off here, making his weight very competitive indeed. Provided Thomas gets the tactics right, we should be knocking on the payout window come 2.20pm.

I mention the tactics element, because he idled a little when in front last time out, but responded to pressure applied to stay on and he'll no doubt want further than this in future. If he's kept to his work and produced late, then the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from Stan James looks very good indeed. So it's a 1pt win bet on Mime Dance today. I've taken a piece of that 5/1, but you should always...

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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2013

No joy with Finn Class yesterday, folks. It was always going to be a tough challenge for him, which is why I suggested a safety-first E/W bet. In fairness, he wasn't disgraced at all by finishing in 5th position, a length and a half away from providing us with a return from a 13/2 shot.

He gave his running, but didn't quite have the same pickup speed as some of the others around him. Nevertheless, it's going down as a blank day for us and I'm hoping to quickly redress the balance in today's...

5.10 Epsom

Occasionally here on SotD, I have been known to bang on a bit about the talents of a certain Saeed Bin Suroor and today is going to be another of those days! His tremendous record over the years is well documented, but not everyone is aware that he's one of a very rare breed of trainers who you can back blindly when he runs horses for the first time in a handicap contest. And he has delivered the winners on a consistent basis for years.

In fact, since 2007, his record with handicap debutants is 42 winners from 167 = 25.15% Strike Rate and 42.63pts profit = an ROI of 25.53%
Since 2007 and priced between Evens and 6/1: 37/99 = 37.4% SR and 64.7pts profit = 65.34% ROI.

I'm well aware that results from 2007 aren't as relevant now as they were a few years ago, but it has been profitable to follow those horses every single year, hence me going back further than I usually do. However...

For the 2011/13 period, 17 of 78 handicap debutants have won: a strike rate 21.8% (slightly lower than the record since 2007), with profits of 20.95pts representing a return over stakes of 26.86%, a slight increase on the seven-year record.
2011/13 and priced below 6/1: 14 winners from 40 (35% SR) and 26,47pts (+66.18% ROI) profits.

Just the one qualifying runner today in the shape of Mukhabarat, an unexposed 3 yr old making only his fourth start after three promising runs in maidens, once as a 2yr old and twice last month.

Mukhabarat showed some signs of future ability on his debut, despite finishing back in 7th of the 11 runners over 6 furlongs at Yarmouth almost 12 months ago. He had every chance with about 300 yards to go, but faded inside the final furlong and he eventually came home just under 9 lengths behind the winner.

He was then off the track for the best part of ten and a half months before reappearing at Chepstow over 7 furlongs, where he disappointed the market who had sent him off as an 11/10 favourite. Once again he was weak in the final furlong, eventually finishing 3rd of the 8 runners.

He finally confirmed his early promise in his third outing just under four weeks ago, when he was dropped back to 6 furlongs and a hood was applied for the first time. He fared much better that day, staying on well to break his maiden tag at 3/1.

Mukhabarat will be carrying top weight here today, but that alone doesn't concern me too much. This year, top weighted horses in 3 yr old handicaps who finished in the first three last time out have gone on to win 26.4% of their races (160 winners from 607). Blindly backing them has, admittedly only generated a modest 3.47% profit (21.1pts), but that still beats the banks!

Yet, if those top weights are fancied in the market, the market has often been proved right with a win ratio of 95 from 351 (27.1% SR) with those priced between 6/4 and 6/1. Those 95 winners have helped backers to a level stakes profit of 87.9pts, or 25% of stakes invested.

With all of the above in mind, I'm happy to stake a 1pt win bet on Mukhabarat at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power, although I should point out that those odds are also available at BetVictor and Coral, so why not...

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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2012

Wrong horse syndrome again yesterday, as the 20/1 pig won but the 11/1 SotD drifting selection managed to bag third mercifully, for advised each way money, to save a hint of grace from a frustrating statistical situation (don't say that after a few pints).

No matter, onwards and downwards; and it's the 'roller coaster' for us today, and the…

4.15 Epsom

With thanks to the excellent Stat Attack feature in horseracebase.com for today's effort, we'll side with a horse which has managed to win four of his eight races in this grade... and placed in the other four.

Step forward Majuro, a horse that goes on any ground, and is highly effective at today's seven furlong trip.

Many of Majuro's best runs have come from the front and, whilst he's not obviously well drawn in trap eight, there is very little early pace and a reasonably short field to boot. So, I'm hopeful he can get out in front and stay there in a grade that he's often able to boss.

There's very little else to say on this one. The trainer, Charles Smith, is having his first runner at the track (seeking his first winner after just six entries) and the jockey, David Bergin, is a first season apprentice who's been riding winners. Indeed, he's won on eleven of his 65 rides so far, and looks one to keep an eye on.

One other thing to note is that the horse is owned by gambler, Willie McKay, so if the money comes it's a good sign. If it doesn't, it probably isn't... 😉

In what is a pretty weak race, we've a horse which is eight from eight in the places in this grade, so it would be churlish not to opt for an each way tickle. 13/2 BOG is available with our man Victor, but do check for the current state of play from the link below.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.15 Epsom.

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 26th July 2012

A solid run behind a well fancied favourite for our SotD pick, Burke's Rock, yesterday, and a profit on an each way ticket at 17/2 returned odds.

I'm late again this morning, as this infernal heat is turning Geegeez Towers into a convection oven and precluding sleep in quite a major way. So, apologies for that, and off to the roller coaster track we go, and the…

7.40 Epsom

SotD has many friends in the training ranks, and none more so perhaps than Andrew Balding. The Kingsclere Conjuror has a knack of producing nice priced winners just when we need one, and I'm hoping today will increase my affection for his timing as well as his talent.

Balding runs two tonight at Epsom, a track where his record is exceptional (17 wins from 73 runs, +54.7 points in the last five years). The first is a once raced maiden, Pearl Bounty, who has a chance but is not my pick here.

The second, and SotD's big hope for today, has more form, including a piece on the famously quirky Epsom strip. Perfect Mission was third here on just his second start, and has recently been plying his trade exclusively on the all weather circuit. Indeed, his last seven runs have all been on the sand, with one win and four places from that septet of starts.

Back on turf tonight, he is compromised a little by a wide draw, and will need his apprentice rider to get across pronto from box fourteen. But, if he can manage that, Perfect Mission will carry him into the race against what looks like a lot of dead wood in the opposition.

Perfect Mission has won off 70 on the all weather, and was second off 75 on the turf, so his mark of 72 here looks fair if not a snip. The ground will be fine too and, while the front-running favourite Moodhill will bid to make all, I'm hoping the Balding beast can mow him down inside the final furlong.

He's 8/1 with Coral, not best odds guaranteed, but I suspect he'll be shorter come post time, so we'll have a bit of that each way today.

Latest odds can be checked if you…

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Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 19th July 2012

So the winning run stopped yesterday. But it was a lovely soft landing for SotD followers as Chris nailed a 20/1 third place (which paid 9.23 Betfair place SP)!

Today, we're off to the Derby, in the…

6.10 Epsom

No, obviously not that Derby. We're a bit late for that. Rather, this is the Ladies' Derby, or a Class 4 one and a half mile handicap if you prefer.

It's a 'horses for courses' type stat today, as Epsom is most definitely a 'horses for courses' type course.

The horse in question is Shesha Bear, who has won three times at Epsom, and placed another twice, from seven starts. All three of those wins were over today's mile and a half trip, and the horse has also won three of the four times she's raced on good to soft ground. (She's won on good and soft too, so any easing or firming up won't be a problem).

Shesha Bear also has a head to head record against today's rivals of six from six. In other words, of the six times she's raced against another horse entered here, she's beaten those horses all six times.

There are a fair few dangers in the race, including Julia Feilden's The Ducking Stool, who is in fine form just now. But the one for whom conditions are best suited is Shesha Bear. 5/1 BOG is available from the Power of Paddy at time of writing, but do…

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Today’s Epsom card features two longstanding races whose importance has slipped over the years, but which nevertheless have a significant place in the history of the sport. Read more