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Stat of the Day, 21st January 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.30 Newcastle : Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide, chased leaders in 3rd, left in 2nd at 6th, hit next, lost 2nd 3 out, rallied into 2nd again between last 2, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Not a lot of racing to actually choose from today, but this one looks too long to ignore. A winner of two of his last six starts, this 7 yr old gelding scored on his penultimate outing over similar trip and going to today at Ffos Las, ahead of finding the step up to Class 2 too tough at Ascot last time out (a month ago).

He's had a short rest and now drops in class and gets weight all round to run at a venue his trainer has done well at in recent years, as Evan Williams' horses have won 19 of 83 (22.9% SR) for profits of 66.8pts (+80.4% ROI) here at Exeter over the past five years.

I could actually draw stumps there and say that's a good enough reason, but SotD wouldn't be SotD without some drilling down into the base stat, would it? So, here goes, from those original 83 runners, they are...

  • 17/71 (23.9%) for 64.9pts (+91.4%) from male runners
  • 17/64 (26.6%) for 63.8pts (+99.7%) for prizes of £0-10k
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 60.6pts (+131.8%) in handicaps
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 53.7pts (+141.4%) after 26-90 days rest
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 21.4pts (+62.9%) in chases
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.8pts (+120%) in Novice contests
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.73pts (+33.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 17pts (+242.7%) in Novice handicaps...

...whilst males competing for a handicap worth £0-10k are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 34.6pts (+247.1% ROI) after 26-90 days rest, including 3/4 in Novice handicaps, 2/5 at Class 3 and 2/5 over fences...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Indeed @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leader, led over 1f out, edged left, stayed on well)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one of only two runners in this race to have actually won a race in the past and is the only winner at this 2m trip. She was a decent second last time out (13 days ago at Uttoxeter) with the final 6 lengths margin of defeat only happening in the closing stages as she struggled to see out 2m4f. That said, she was conceding 21lbs to the winner and yet still finished 7, 36 and 43 lengths respectively clear of the next three home.

She runs off the same mark again today and the drop back in trip should also help, as should the booking of experienced rider Adam Wedge. Adam has a good record here at this venue and since 2015, he's 19 from 84 (22.6% SR) for 48.7pts (+58% ROI) when riding in handicaps for trainer Evan Williams here and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 15/53 (28.3%) for 45.5pts (+85.6%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 15/60 (25%) for 53.5pts (+89.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 39.6pts (+113%) top 3 finishers LTO
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 64.3pts (+189.1%) on 5/6 yo's
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.1pts (+32%) over this 2m trip
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) on good to soft

...whilst Wedge/Williams + 5-7 yo's + 7/4 to 8/1 + top 3 LTO + 6-30 dslr = 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 37.1pts (+337.3% ROI)...

More generally, Evan has had success with turning horses back out fairly quickly after a decent run. Numerically/specifically, I'm saying that since the start of 2016 his runners in UK NH handicaps who had a top 3 finish LTO in the previous fortnight are 17 from 55 (30.9% SR) for 32.8pts (+60.8% ROI) and whilst 15 runners a year isn't a large dataset to look at, there are some angles that (a) keep cropping up and (b) are valid today, such as...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+93.6%) from LTO runners-up
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 24.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 4
  • 7/28 (25%) for 21.6pts (+77%) off the same mark as LTO
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.5%) ridden by Adam Wedge
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 24.6pts (+223.7%) from May to July
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.9pts (+137.5%) in Novice handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.54pts (+94.9%) here at Ffos Las
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.97pts (+21.9%) from female runners

...and LTO runners-up racing at Class 4 off the same mark as LTO are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.57pts (+282.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Dartford Warbler @ 15/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway 5 out, chased leaders next, never able to challenge)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

A lightly raced 5 yr old gelding, making just his 7th start under Rules (was a winner in his only PTP contest), but has finished as a runner-up in three of his last four over hurdles, coming very close last time out, nine days ago and probably would have won but for a mistake late on.

Now he's at the same class, trip and OR as LTO, Mitchell Bastyan is in the saddle again and I'd suggest a slightly better jumping performance wins him this race. Mitchell again claims his 5lb allowance and he'll be buoyed by 2 wins and a place from 6 efforts over hurdles in the last fortnight.

Trainer Evan Williams is 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 139.2pts (+267.6% ROI) in Chepstow handicap hurdles since 2015 but it's clear that those figures are slightly skewed by one big-priced winner, so if we impose a sensible 14/1 odds cap on those runners, we then move to 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) and 58.9pts (+140.2% ROI) profit, which is still excellent and includes of relevance today...

  • 1 to 6 weeks since last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.6pts (+169.7%)
  • Class 4 : 3/17 (17.7%) for 10.8pts (+63.6%)
  • in March : 3/8 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+183.3%)
  • ridden by Mitchell Bastyan : 2/5 (40%) for 27pts (+539.8%)

This horse also became of interest via two of my microsystems, starting with the fact that since 2012, Evan Williams' handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO went on to win 49 of 185 (26.5% SR) for 65.3pts (+35.3% ROI), from which...

  • 2-10 dslr : 39/119 (32.8%) for 48.2pts (+40.5%)
  • hurdlers are 24/74 (31.2%) for 56.6pts (+73.5%)
  • Class 4 : 25/76 (32.9%) for 46.3pts (+60.9%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 20/72 (27.8%) for 64.8pts (+89.9%)
  • Runner-up LTO : 19/65 (29.2%) for 49.2pts (+75.6%)
  • and in March : 11/27 (40.7%) for 19.8pts (+73.4%)

And secondly, since the Geegeez racecard pace tab says he likes to run mid-division with an average pace score of 2.25, I refer to one of my saved Query Tool angles which tells me that over the last 5 years in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps, 5 to 9  yr olds with an average previous pace score of 2 to 3 who are down to carry 12-0o to 12-05 before claims over trips of 2m4f or shorter on non-heavy ground are 58/200 (29% SR) for 87.3pts (+43.65% ROI) at Industry SP (which we should better with BSP or BOG, of course), including...

  • Class 4 : 38/136 (27.9%) for 80.1pts (+58.9%)
  • hurdlers : 33/115 (28.7%) for 47.2pts (+41%)
  • and Class 4 hurdlers are 20/67 (29.9%) for 44.4pts (+66.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Treasure Dillon 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 12.30am this morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Darlyn @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led before 2 out, pressed last, found extra run-in, driven out to win by a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £5133 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding bears top weight here today, conceding at least 7lbs to each of his rivals despite a fairly poor run of form over the past 12 months. In fairness most of that run of form has been over the larger obstacles, but he did revert to hurdling (considered good enough to run at Gr3 less than a year ago!) for his latest run 23 days ago when a reasonable fourth at a higher grade than this and on ground faster than he'd ever run on before.

A drop in class allied to softer conditions underfoot should see him in a better light as he seeks to improve upon his trainer's already decent record at this venue. Putting that into numbers, we see that trainer Evan Williams' handicappers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 31.5pts (+32.8% ROI) here at Taunton since 2013, with the following of relevance today...

  • males are 16/90 (17.8%) for 37.5pts (+41.6%)
  • hurdlers are 10/55 (18.2%) for 45.7pts (+83%)
  • at 2m to 2m1f : 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.62pts (+104.3%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 10/37 (27%) for 15.16pts (+41%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/27 (18.5%) for 6.62pts (+24.5%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 4/18 922.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.9%)

Now, the fact he concedes weight all round could be seen as a negative by some people, but you might (or might not!) find it interesting that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, top-rated (OR) 5 to 9 yr olds carrying a race top-weight of 11-13 to 12-07 (after all claims considered) are 59 from 235 (25.1% SR) for 60.7pts (+25.8% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at 15/2 or shorter are 57/164 (34.8%) for 97.56pts (+59.5%)
  • those last seen 4-30 days earlier are 47/137 (34.3%) for 76.26pts (+55.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 113-124 are 37/129 (28.7%) for 62.16pts (+48.2%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 17/55 (30.9%) for 49.27pts (+89.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/50 (30%) for 30.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and 7 yr old sare 14/49 (28.6%) for 24.93pts (+50.9%)

...and a simple yet highly profitable micro from the above? How about those sent off at 15/2 or shorter, 4-30 days after their last run? These runners are 47 from 102 (46.1% SR) for 111.26pts (+109.1% ROI) profit!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Early NH Season, Part 2

A few weeks ago, my last article focused on National Hunt trainers who fly out of the gates in the autumn, writes Jon Shenton.   When compiling data and researching angles for that edition there were a few other areas of interest which I’d like to touch on today.

A key aspect that was considered for the aforementioned piece was evaluating where trainers had a runner returning to the track after an absence of more than 180 days, or about 6 months.  The thinking is that some trainers will have horses wound up and ready to go after a summer absence, while others’ animals generally come on for a run, taking a long-term view of the season ahead.

The below graph shows the total volume of runners returning to the track after a layoff of that magnitude.  Clearly, now is a good time to dive into which trainers are ready to go or otherwise.  As can be seen, we are in peak season for long absence returners.

Graph illustrating number of horses returning to the track after a break of 181+ days, since 2010, by month

 

Bargepoles and Scary data

My general approach is to always try and provide a few pointers to find a reasonable return over the medium to long term.  However, there is definite value in identifying horses through which to strike a line: data for those inclined to lay in other words.

The first stop is what I’d uncharitably term a ‘bargepole list’. The table below comprises of trainer records in terms of horses making a reappearance after more than 180 days off the track.  50 runs is the minimum level for inclusion and I have sorted in reverse A/E, accounting for all runs from the start of 2010 onwards.

 

Trainer performance for all runners from 2010 where the horse last ran 181+ days previously

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Jewell, Mrs L C 51 0 0.0 -51.0 5.9 -100.0 0
Menzies, Rebecca 52 0 0.0 -52.0 11.5 -100.0 0
Young, Mrs L J 62 0 0.0 -62.0 11.3 -100.0 0
Carroll, A W 81 1 1.2 -72.0 11.1 -88.9 0.17
Stephens, Robert 56 1 1.8 -39.0 17.9 -69.6 0.24
Newton-Smith, A M 51 1 2.0 -40.0 11.8 -78.4 0.25
Dennis, David 73 2 2.7 -61.8 12.3 -84.7 0.3
Wintle, A 57 1 1.8 -48.0 10.5 -84.2 0.31
Brennan, F J 55 1 1.8 -26.0 10.9 -47.3 0.34
Henderson, P 79 2 2.5 -63.0 12.7 -79.8 0.37
Dyson, Miss C 99 2 2.0 -71.0 9.1 -71.7 0.37
Easterby, T D 62 3 4.8 -36.3 22.6 -58.5 0.37
Thompson, V 53 1 1.9 -44.0 11.3 -83.0 0.38
Davison, Miss Z C 57 1 1.8 -36.0 10.5 -63.2 0.41
Normile, Mrs L B 67 1 1.5 -54.0 9.0 -80.6 0.43
Goldie, J S 68 3 4.4 -42.0 19.1 -61.8 0.44
Candlish, Jennie 129 5 3.9 -90.5 22.5 -70.2 0.47
Frost, J D 76 2 2.6 -37.0 7.9 -48.7 0.47
Bewley, G T 62 3 4.8 -42.8 27.4 -69.0 0.49

 

That’s a combined 30 wins from 1290 attempts with a A/E performance on average of 0.30.  Ordinarily I’d like to keep table data to a top 10 or so, but in this case, it felt a bit like a civic duty to share it all!

It goes without saying that if you’re backing a runner from these stables under these conditions that you need a very compelling reason to argue against the data. Obviously, it doesn’t mean that they can’t win – and horse can win any race – and, as ever, sample sizes are sub-optimal. Treating all of these stable runners with caution under these circumstances is advised.

The yards contained on the bargepole list are generally of the small/mid-range in terms of size.  Of greater interest may be to evaluate some of the household names of the game with the same conditions applied.  The table below contains larger outfits (100+ runs and not included in the first list above).  All have A/E rates of 0.8 or lower for horses where they are absent from competitive racing beyond the 180 days limit.

 

Trainer performance for all runners since 2010 where the horse last ran over 180 days previously (min. 100 runs at A/E less than 0.8)

Trainer Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Gordon, C 110 5 4.6 -48.1 18.2 -43.8 0.51
Webber, P R 188 8 4.3 -104.5 17.6 -55.6 0.51
Keighley, M 145 9 6.2 -61.6 22.1 -42.5 0.51
Dobbin, Mrs R 127 7 5.5 -83.0 21.3 -65.4 0.58
Williams, Ian 180 13 7.2 -72.5 25.0 -40.3 0.59
Hammond, Micky 110 5 4.6 -75.2 14.6 -68.3 0.59
Smith, Mrs S J 308 24 7.8 -104.2 26.3 -33.8 0.65
Russell, Lucinda V 332 27 8.1 -147.5 27.4 -44.4 0.66
Richards, N G 220 24 10.9 -68.5 35.0 -31.2 0.67
Hill, Lawney 120 10 8.3 -41.1 24.2 -34.3 0.67
Down, C J 106 4 3.8 3.5 17.9 3.3 0.67
Case, B I 102 6 5.9 -34.2 22.6 -33.5 0.7
Phillips, R T 115 5 4.4 -53.0 19.1 -46.1 0.71
Wade, J 166 10 6.0 -76.3 22.9 -45.9 0.72
Alexander, N W 169 12 7.1 -84.1 20.1 -49.7 0.73
Greatrex, W J 250 40 16.0 -106.7 37.2 -42.7 0.73
Wadham, Mrs L 118 13 11.0 -6.3 31.4 -5.3 0.74
Jefferson, J M* 163 20 12.3 -63.5 33.7 -39.0 0.75
Mullins, J W 175 11 6.3 -70.5 19.4 -40.3 0.76
Bailey, Caroline 100 7 7.0 -34.8 22.0 -34.8 0.77
Moore, G L 317 32 10.1 -144.1 24.6 -45.5 0.79
Dickin, R 116 7 6.0 -41.3 17.2 -35.6 0.79

*J M Jefferson yard now overseen by daughter, Ruth. It remains to be seen whether she adopts the same patient approach

 

A lot of these are undoubtedly considered elite level exponents of the training game.  They all will have short priced horses making their seasonal reappearance right about now.   Across the board the win strike rate is a moderate 8%.

On a personal level, awareness of this data has resulted in a modification of my betting habits over the last few weeks.  Sure, sometimes using intel such as this will leave you kicking yourself as you leave a winner out but it’s all about getting a few more right than wrong in the long-term.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Winter Sunshine

Enough with the negativity. Let’s find a few rays of winter sunshine. Using the same 180 days off the track criteria with the addition of only considering runners at an SP of 20/1 or less (to prevent one or two big winners skewing the data) I’ve curated the following, more optimistic, data set.  This time I’ve sorted by ROI: bottom line profit is the ultimate goal after all. To qualify for the winter sunshine list at least 50 runs are required, a minimum of a 10% ROI at SP and a minimum of a 10%-win rate.

 

Trainer performance for all runners since 2010, 180+ days layoff, SP 20/1 or shorter

Trainers Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
Bridgwater, D G 98 21 21.4 53.7 41.8 54.8 1.47
Easterby, M W 51 11 21.6 24.9 35.3 48.8 1.65
Hales, A M 74 12 16.2 34.0 35.1 46.0 1.42
Pauling, Ben 100 25 25.0 37.6 45.0 37.6 1.24
Honeyball, A J 119 26 21.9 41.2 43.7 34.6 1.14
Walford, Robert 59 10 17.0 18.9 30.5 32.0 1.33
Scott, J 118 20 17.0 30.4 39.8 25.8 1.23
Symonds, Tom 64 10 15.6 13.6 43.8 21.2 1.09
Williams, Evan 339 60 17.7 64.0 39.2 18.9 1.07
Scudamore, M J 74 11 14.9 13.3 35.1 17.9 1.27
Leech, Mrs S 74 10 13.5 12.8 27.0 17.2 1.14
OBrien, Fergal 189 38 20.1 29.7 42.3 15.7 1.12
Dartnall, V R A 119 19 16.0 15.8 40.3 13.2 1.09

 

A much more interesting set of results for backers, all pretty positive and all worth further investigation.  As usual it’d be remiss not to have a quick dive into the most profitable on the list, in this case the Cotswolds-based trainer, David Bridgwater.

 

David Bridgwater runners after a break of 180+ days, SP 20/1 or shorter by year

Year Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
ALL 98 21 21.4 53.7 41.8 54.8 1.47
2018 7 2 28.6 19.0 71.4 271.4 2.41
2017 3 1 33.3 2.0 66.7 66.7 1.18
2016 13 1 7.7 -7.0 23.1 -53.9 0.71
2015 25 8 32.0 15.0 44.0 59.9 1.65
2014 15 2 13.3 0.5 40.0 3.3 1
2013 20 3 15.0 20.0 35.0 100.0 1.4
2012 6 1 16.7 -2.0 16.7 -33.3 1.23
2011 6 2 33.3 5.8 66.7 95.8 2.27
2010 3 1 33.3 0.5 66.7 16.7 1.89

 

Judged on this criterion, “Bridgie” has clearly peaked between 2013-2015 in terms of volume. However, he still appears to get his horses primed after a layoff these days, just in lower numbers.   Perhaps the increased activity during the peak years were as a result of his stable star The Giant Bolster finishing 2nd, 4th and 3rd in consecutive Gold Cup’s at Prestbury Park, thus raising the profile of the operation.  Delving slightly deeper into the data the performance is strong in the rank and file classes of NH racing (4 and 5), with 19 winners from 70 runs, ROI of 106% at SP. That’s probably an angle to keep in the back of your mind I suspect, rather than to follow blindly.

Picking another yard in a semi-random way (as I have an affinity for them) let’s check the Ben Pauling outfit. Willoughby Court signalled a change in fortunes with regard to my woeful Cheltenham Festival record back in 2017 and I’ve been following them ever since that momentous occasion.  The expanding yard is coming off the back of its most successful season and is clearly going in the right direction.

The beauty (or one of them) of evaluating data such as this is that it can act as a gateway into a deeper understanding of a trainer, generating a different angle or view to what was initially expected.  Let me illustrate:

Pauling’s 25 wins from 100 with a 37% ROI looks overwhelmingly positive (and it is), however, here is the breakdown by month 

Ben Pauling runners with 180+ off the track at SP of 20/1 or shorter by month

Month Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
January 4 1 25.0 9.0 50.0 225.0 2.08
February 4 0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -100.0 0
May 5 2 40.0 -1.0 40.0 -20.0 1.3
June 3 0 0.0 -3.0 66.7 -100.0 0
July 1 0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -100.0 0
October 20 1 5.0 -14.0 35.0 -70.0 0.27
November 46 13 28.3 11.2 50.0 24.4 1.31
December 17 8 47.1 40.4 52.9 237.5 2.31

 

Look at October in relation to November and December.  They are pretty powerful numbers (small sample small-print applies).  In fact, they’re so powerful I have the strong inclination to check all of Pauling’s runners, irrespective of whether they’ve had over 180 days rest or not.  The graph below shows the split of profit and loss by month for all of the stable’s runners at 20/1 or shorter.

 

Ben Pauling P&L performance by month for all NH runners at 20/1 or shorter from 2010 onwards

 

The first thing to say is that the trend from the 180+ data is very much a representation of the whole yard’s performance.  Backing every Pauling entry during November and December appears to be a very promising area in which to potentially invest the kid’s university funds.  The whole stable appears to go into overdrive as we get towards the dying embers of the calendar year.

As a final and potentially arbitrary step, the Pauling record in Nov/Dec with fillies and mares is very poor with just one win from 28 runs.   Checking the overall year-round performance with the fairer sex there have been a skinny 5 wins from 68 runs, losing over 70% of funds invested.  As a result, I’ll happily exclude fillies and mares from the angle: training these has unique and different challenges, so exclusion can, I feel, be justified. That leaves the overall angle performance as per the table below.

 

Ben Pauling November/December male runners by year with, SP of 20/1 or shorter

Year Runs Wins Win% P/L (SP) Place% ROI(SP) A/E
ALL 205 56 27.3 104.7 46.8 51.1 1.35
2018 5 1 20.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 1.75
2017 72 18 25.0 14.2 47.2 19.7 1.17
2016 56 13 23.2 2.1 41.1 3.8 1.17
2015 36 15 41.7 54.3 52.8 150.8 1.72
2014 31 8 25.8 35.1 51.6 113.3 1.57
2013 5 1 20.0 -1.0 40.0 -20.0 1.56

 

In summary, backing Pauling male runners in November and December at 20/1 or shorter returns 51% to SP with a healthy strike rate of over 27%.  Maybe the market is catching up and pickings have certainly been slimmer over the past year or two.   Having said that, the yard is definitely still one to keep close to your thoughts as soon as we move into November.

Another trainer from the Winter Sunshine list, this time entirely based on volume, is Evan Williams.  The Vale of Glamorgan handler has delivered 50+ National Hunt winners every year since 2010 and is on track to do so again in 2018.

There is little doubt that this is an operation that gear themselves to getting horses out fresh and ready in October and November.   Using the P&L graph again, below is the distribution.

Evan Williams P&L performance by month for all runners 180+ days off the track, 20/1 or shorter, since 2010

 

A nice profit has been gleaned in the focus months; unlike Pauling, however, there are other potential periods of interest. Also, whilst the Pauling yard is historically flying with all runners in months 10 and 11 there is a clear distinction in Williams’ stable between fresh and already active animals.

 

Evan Williams Oct & Nov runners by month from 2010 by days since last run, SP 20/1 or shorter

Days since LR Runs Wins Win% P/L(SP) ROI
180 days or less 456 78 17.1% -84.0 -18.4
181 days or more 190 45 23.7% 84.4 44.4

 

As a result, we only want to consider the fresh horses from the yard, even though performance for the other horses is far from terrible.

If we want to sharpen up further, the trainer hasn’t had a victorious horse at odds of greater than 16/1 from 11 runs in this dataset.  There might be a big one out there though, as always, it’s personal choice in terms of appetite for risk and reward.

In summary, backing all Williams charges with over 180 days off the track in Oct/Nov at 16/1 or less would yield 53% at SP, delivering £95 profit from a £1 level stake.

I’m fully aware that October is in the rear-view mirror in 2018.  However, this year the stable was exceptionally quiet during the month in terms of qualifiers, finishing with a record of 0/5.  My guess would be that the exceptionally dry summer and autumn may be pushing this (and other) yard’s general routines back a few weeks, patiently waiting for winter ground.  If that is the case, then Team Williams may burst into life as the squad start hitting the course over the next few weeks.

Obviously, it doesn’t always work like that, it’s just part of the evolving punting puzzle that we all know and love.

Good luck!

 - Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.50 Wolverhampton : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, effort when short of room inside final furlong to go 2nd.

My next attempt to stop crossbar-rattling and drag myself off the cold list goes in Wednesday's...

2.00 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap over 2m on Good To Soft worth £7798...

...and a 6 yr old gelding with solid Irish P2P form from 4 runs at the end of 2016, winning the last of them ahead of a Rules debut at Ffos Las in March of this year. He was a winner that day too by some 30 lengths, although he did have some luck along the way.

He was just over a length down after the last hurdle but was staying on well, when the leader jinked and unseated hos rider, leaving our boy with a facile opportunity to score at the first attempt.

He can be expected to have come on for having had the experience and you just know that as an ex-pointer he should just jump well and no doubt his handler, Evan Williams will have had him extensively schooled during his 252 day break ahead of this handicap debut.

Evan does well with his jumping debutants and those priced at 6/ to 11/1 are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 25.6pts (+35.6% ROI) since 2011, including...

  • males at 14/69 (20.3%) for 28.6pts (+41.5%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 10/40 (25%) for 18.3pts (+45.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Wedge are 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+148.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 6 to 10 months are 4/14 (28.6%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/6 (33.3%) for 9.3pts (+155.3%)

It's no surprise to see the yard has had a couple of winners on handicap debut at this track, as more generally/recently, the Williams runners have a good time of it here at Chepstow, winning 19 of 102 (18.6% SR) for 117.2pts (+114.9% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • males are 17/88 (19.3%) for 102.7pts (+116.8%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m3.5f : 15/72 (20.8%) for 117.4pts (+163%)
  • at odds of Evens to 17/2 : 14/56 (25%) for 20.8pts (+37.1%)
  • ridden by Adam Wedge : 6/31 (19.4%) for 6.9pts (+22.3%)
  • over the 2m trip : 9/30 (30%) for 24.6pts (+82%)
  • those rated (OR) 119-130 are 7/27 (25.9%) for 25.7pts (+95.3%)
  • in October/November : 8/20 (40%) for 145.3pts (+726.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.95pts (+41.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/13 (46.2%) for 121.9pts (+937.9%)
  • and those coming back from 6-10 months off the track are 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.98pts (+90.7%)

...providing us with... a 1pt win bet on Swift Crusador @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from BetVictor, BoyleSports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.35 Lingfield : So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 : Report to follow...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.30 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m on Good ground...

...featuring a 10 yr old gelding making his second appearance of the year since returning from a 318-day layoff. His return from the absence saw him win here over course and distance and although he was unable to follow that up 34 days later/58 days ago.

He was third on that follow up run over 2 furlongs further and despite making a mess of the last when possibly a little tired, he was still only beaten by 3.25 lengths, marking that down as a decent effort behind a winner who has since gone in again.

He's trained by Evan Williams, whose NH Class 4/5 handicappers having just their their 2nd run within a 90-day period are 59/262 (22.5% SR) for 184.6pts (+70.5% ROI) since the start of 2009, including of interest/relevance here today...

  • chasers at 35/140 (25%) for 93.9pts (+67.1%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m1.5f : 13/54 (24.1%) for 91.1pts (+168.8%)
  • those placed 3rd LTO are 11/44 (25%) for 40.4pts (+91.9%)
  • in October/November : 12/35 (34.3%) for 48.7pts (+139.3%)
  • and those beaten by just 2 to 5 lengths LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 20.95pts (+130.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG, which was widely available at 5.40pm on Wednesday. Those able to take 9/2 from Betfair should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2016

Boxing Day's Result :

1.40 Wincanton : Chakisto @ 7/1 BOG WON at 3/1 - Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, led approaching last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Chepstow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pobbles Bay @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A relatively uncomplicated explanation (for a change!) this time about a 6 yr old gelding who returned from a 216-day absence to win on his chasing bow at Uttoxeter last time out.

He was a winner by 16 lengths that day, 45 days ago, on soft ground in this grade and under today's jockey and there's every chance he'll improve for the experience, especially as the 3rd, 4th and 6th placed horses (who were 20, 25 and 47 lengths behind him) have all won since.

He's up in trip today, but stays 3m2f, he's 2/3 at this grade and has, of course, won under today's jockey Adam Wedge.

From a statistical point of view, Evan Williams' NH handicappers making only their second appearance in a 90-day period are 84/533 (15.8% SR) for 162.9pts (+30.6% ROI) since the start of 2010, with the following of particular relevance here today...

  • in chases : 51/280 (18.2%) for 64.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/127 (15.8%) for 58.9pts (+46.4%)
  • under Adam Wedge : 26/125 (20.8%) for 86.3pts (+69%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m1.5f : 18/113 (15.9%) for 60.7pts (+53.7%)
  • 6yr olds : 19/101 (18.8%) for 63.95pts (+63.3%)
  • LTO winners : 21/72 (29.2%) for 64pts (+88.9%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 7/44 (15.9%) for 30.1pts (+68.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pobbles Bay at 9/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and also from BetVictor, Betway and/or Hills (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 8.20pm on Boxing Day (yes, we work through Christmas for you here at Geegeez!) To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 9/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2016

Friday's Result :

2.25 Sandown : Messire Des Obeaux @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, 3rd before not fluent 2 out, driven and one pace between last 2, rallied last, 2nd run-in, stayed on gamely to lead inside final 150 yards, held on by half a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

12.00 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Over the last fortnight, trainer Evan Williams' runners have won 8 of their 35 races, whilst today's jockey Paul Moloney is 5 from 29 in the same time, so both can be considered as being in decent nick.

They now team up with this 3 yr old who has won two of her last three starts, including a win on her hurdling debut over 2m1f at Exeter 13 days ago, when she was partnered by Paul Moloney for the first time.

And as well as being my fancy for this particular race, she catches the eye statistically as Evan Williams' runners who were LTO winners scored back to back successes on 43 of 177  (24.3% SR) occasions since the start of 2014, yielding level stakes profits of 141.8pts at an ROI of 184.3%, from which...

  • those who last ran within the previous 90 days are 36/145 (24.8%) for 133.3pts (+91.9%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f : 36/124 (29%) for 156.5pts (+126.2%)
  • hurdlers are 28/87 (32.2%) for 160.4pts (+184.3%)

AND...hurdlers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f within 90 days of that LTO win are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 143.9pts (+252.5% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Evening Hush at 100/30 BOG from Hills, BetVictor and/or SkyBet, as of 8.40pm on Friday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.00 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Quite by Chance @ 1/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, headway when mistake 9th, led 11th, headed after 4 out, outpaced when left 3rd 2 out)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

4.25 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tornado In Milan @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old is 3 from 15 over hurdles, which is reasonable, if not spectacular, but looking at today's conditions in relation to that 3/15 record and I see that Tornado In Milan is 2/8 here at Taunton and 2/8 on soft ground. He's also 2/7 in a hood and 2 from 2 running 6 to 20 days after his last run. Also of note here is his 1 from 2 record over this trip, 1/2 over C&D and 1/2 under today's jockey Conor Ring who claims 5lbs today.

So, we know the horse should be happy enough, what of the yard in general? Well, trainer Evan Williams's hurdlers are 14/87 (16.1% SR) for 65.4pts (+75.32% ROI), from which...

  • those competing at 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 74pts (+110.4% ROI)
  • those racing 6 to 75 DSLR are 12/66 (18.2% SR) for 64.9pts (+98.3% ROI)
  • those with a mark of 110 to 130 are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 73.2pts (+228.9% ROI)
  • and those carrying 11-06 to 11-12 are 7/20 (35% SR) for 25pts (+125% ROI)

As I said earlier, jockey Conor Ring claims 5lbs and Evan Williams' horse have gone well in the past when partnered by such claimers. More specifically, since the start of 2008, at odds of 5/4 to 11/1, Evan's NH handciappers ridden by a 5lb claimer are 27/154 (17.5% SR) for 44.7pts at a healthy enough ROI of 29%, but we won't stop there! A closer inspection of those 154 runners shows that...

  • those who finished in the top 4 LTO are 20/89 (22.5% SR) for 45.1pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 42.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • those rated 116 to 130 are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+65.5% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+61.6% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4f are 16/29 (55.2% SR) for 112.4pts (+387.6% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 4/25 (16% SR) for 18.7pts (+74.8% ROI)
  • here at Taunton : 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+166.1% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Tornado In Milan at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available, although Betway (non-BOG until 10.00am) are a standout 4/1. To see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2015

Tuesday's Result :

12.55 Southwell : Shah of Persia @ 3/1 BOG : 5th of 5 at 11/4 (Led or disputed lead to 7th, tracked winner, reminder after 12th, lost place when blundered 3 out, soon weakened and behind, tailed off and beaten by 45 lengths!)

Wednesday's selection runs in the...

4.00 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pobbles Bay @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Evan Williams  is 12/76 (15.8% SR) for 146.2pts (+192.4% ROI) with handicap hurdlers at Chepstow since 2008, of which...

  • those rated (OR) 101 to 119 are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 67.2pts (+176.9% ROI)
  • those priced 9/4 to 17/2 are 7/28 (25% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI)
  • those aged 4 or 5 are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 57.7pts (+274.6% ROI) and...
  • those running at Class 4 are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 47.35pts (+250% ROI).

In addition to the above track stats, Evan's NH handicap debutants priced at 11/1 or shorter over the last five years are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 34pts (+66.6% ROI) profit and in respect of today's race, those 51 debutants are...

  • 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 34.3pts (+110.8% ROI) over hurdles
  • 10/27 (37% SR) for 48.1pts (+178.2% ROI) at trips of 2m3f to 3m
  • 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+94% ROI) at Class 4

And finally, when employing the service of a jockey claiming 3lbs in a NH handicap, Evan's horses have won 25 of the 116 (21.6% SR) races in which they've been priced at 9/4 to 8/1, producing level stakes profits of 43.8pts at an ROI of 37.8% and once again we'll analyse those with today's conditions in mind, as follows...

  • those racing at 2m to 3m are 24/106 (22.6% SR) for 48.2pts (+45.5% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 23pts (+54.8% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 15.2pts (+79.8% ROI)

And a slightly broader microsystem for these 3lb claimers : 5 to 9 yr olds running at Class 3/4 over 2m to 3m for 16 winners from 57 (28.1% SR) for 47.4pts (+83.2% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Pobbles Bay at 3/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, whilst Betway also offer the same price with the next best being a widely available 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2015

Our boy played up before the start yesterday and eventually wasn't loaded into the stalls and they raced without him, so I've nothing to report from Friday's trip to Haydock.

South Wales now beckons for the week's finale in the...

6.20 Ffos Las:

And as I'm running late due to unforeseen technical issues here in not-so-sunny East Lancashire, I'm going to keep this as brief as I can!

Saturday's selection in this Class 4 handicap chase over 3 miles on good ground is Copper Birch, to be ridden by Conor Ring and is trained by Evan Williams, who has done well in this type of contest in the past.

In fact, since 2009, his runners in Class 4 handicap chases here at Ffos Las have won 14 of the 60 races (23.3% SR) in which they have been sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 17/2 (loosely, our average SotD range!). These runners have produced level stakes profits of 9.9pts at an ROI of 16.5% to date.

In handicap contests, the numbers are 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) for 14.9pts (+32.4% ROI) on there have been 4 winners from the 13 (30.8% SR) runners who got to compete on good ground. Good ground isn't often the case here at Ffos Las, but those 4 winners have produced profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 111.5%.

Copper Birch, for his part, has won 2 of 4 starts over today's trip and gets on well with today's jockey Conor Ring, who has been on board three times now, making the frame each time. The finishing positions of those races was 133 and they were Copper Birch's last three efforts with a win over this trip at Taunton in January followed by places at an inadequately short 2m5f here at Ffos Las on soft ground in February and then a tired finish at Exeter over 3m 6.5f and stepped up a class!

He runs off the same mark today as last time out but will benefit from the drop back to his favoured trip on a course where has won over hurdles at the trip. The drop in class will help him, as will Conor's 5lb claim.

Evan Williams is one of those trainers who seem to know just when to put claimers up for rides and in handicap contests using 5lb claimer jockeys, he has had 27 winners from 181 runners (14.9% SR) and whilst the level stakes profits of 4.12pts are a very modest return on 2.3% above stakes, those are at Betfair SP prices, easily bettered by taking the morning BOG odds, plus it's profit from blind backing which can ALWAYS be improved upon.

A simple tweak is to just back those in Classes 3 to 5 races, giving you 27 winners from 152 (17.8% SR) for 33.1pts (+21.8% ROI) profit. In chases alone, those figures come to 13 winners from 70 (18.6% SR) for 14pts profit at an ROI of 20% and that's an adequately big enough ROI for me.

If you wanted more bang for your buck, you could just take the C3 to C5 runners in the 4/1 to 10/1 odds range and leave yourself looking at 17 winners from 82 (20.7% SR) for 72.5pts (+88.5% ROI) with the chasers contributing 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) for 33.9pts at an ROI of 99.7% ROI.

This race should be more to Copper Birch's liking and I'm placing a 1pt win bet at 7/1 BOG with Bet365, as he's 4/1 to 6/1 elsewhere, which are probably a truer reflection of his chances here, but be sure to check who's offering the best price for you by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.20 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2013

The best Midnight Belle could manage was third yesterday and the bare result makes his run look a little better than it actually was.

If you had a closer look, you'd see that he was well beaten by some 16 lengths or so and even relinquished second place and his half of his meagre prize money on the run in.

This performance capped a fairly dismal weekend for me and a losing week for SotD.

We are however, still in profit for the month and I'm hoping to add to the tally with a speculative effort in the...

2.05 Ffos Las:

Evan Williams has recorded decent profits from his longer priced hurdlers here at Ffos Las in recent years and will hope to do the same again today with Makethe Mostofnow.

In the 2011/13 time frame in hurdles races here at Ffos Las, Evan has landed 9 winners from the 85 runners sent off at 6/1 and over, which is a reasonable 10.6% strike rate for outsiders and these winners have produced 82.94pts proift, a return of 97.6% of stakes invested.

If we put an upper price limit of 20/1 on these selections, the figures are 8/64 = 12.5% for 41.2pts (+64.35% ROI), still very healthy indeed.

Mr Williams has 3 hurdlers and 2 chasers on show today, but the one I'm interested in is Makethe Mostofnow, who is becoming somewhat of a course and conditions specialist. This horse has won 4 times and been placed twice in 16 efforts to date, but his record here at Ffos Las is 4 wins and a place from eight races for 13.34pts level stakes profit. He's 3 from 5 over hurdles here.

As well as all his career wins coming at this venue, all four have been on similarly soft ground to today's conditions and he's also a dual course and distance winner on soft ground here.

On paper, he's probably not an obvious pick but when ground gets testing, it often pays to side with those runners adept to the conditions and his knowledge of the track means that we might well see some benefit from a 0.5pts E/W bet on Makethe Mostofnow at 10/1 BOG with Coral.

As always, it does pay to see what other firms are offering and the easiest way to do that, is to simply...

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Cheltenham Trainers To Avoid?

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Vaughan - 0 From 91 With Cheltenham Runners!

It’s the first of the big Cheltenham Meetings this week – with the three day Paddy Power Gold Cup fixture starting on Friday and Andy Newton’s got six big yards that don’t do as well as you might think with their runners at Prestbury Park. Read more

Trainer Stats: 31th Oct 2013

JONJOWith the jumping action starting to hot up Andy Newton’s got 5 NH stables to look out for at the moment…… Read more