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Placepot Pointers – Sunday 15th April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £388.50 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 98.3% units went through – 13/8 & 8/13*

Race 2: 49.6% of the remaining units when through – 11/10* (Win only event)

Race 3: 15.7% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 11/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 63.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/2

Race 5: 24.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 12/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 15.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Dancing Doug) & 5 (Six Gun Serenade)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Mr Jim), 9 (Micquus) & 3 (Little Jimmy)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Midnight Maestro), 4 (Wolfcatcher) & 3 (Ballygown Bay)

Leg 4 (3.55): 5 (Cap Horner) & 3 (Indian Castle)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Indian Reel), 8 (King Charlie) & 4 (Howlongisafoot)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Mr Muddle), 6 (Brother Bennett) & 5 (Yourholidayisover)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Sam Thomas has taken some to time to reach double figures as a trainer (6% strike rate) but as eight of his ten winners have been gained in hurdle events, inmate DANCING DOUG has a second to none chance here from a Placepot perspective, given that I wouldn’t have a bet in the contest using your money.  There has been some support (brave souls) for SIX GUN SERENADE overnight which suggests that Suzi Smith’s raider can emerge as the main threat to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: The last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners of their respective events.

 

2.50: MR JIM is asked to repeat last year’s success under much slower conditions, though Tony Carroll’s raider cannot be ignored given the great from of the yard.  Tony had produced 36 points of level stake profit via his current 5/7 ratio!  MR JIM is Tony’s only runner on the day with his next inmate possibly taking up an assignment at Newmarket on the level on Tuesday.  Emma Lavelle is a shrewd cookie and she has placed her new inmate MicQUUS to clever effect in this grade/company, whilst LITTLE JIMMY is consistent from a Placepot perspective around the ‘gaff tracks’.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Mr Jim (good to firm) – won this race last year

1/6—Remember Forever (good to firm)

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3.20: Alan King was out of luck with his seven runners at Aintree though with four of them having reached the frame at 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 13/2, it cannot be said that the yard is comprehensively out of form.  That statement bodes well for the chance of MIDNIGHT MAESTRO here, if only from a Placepot viewpoint.  Others to consider include WOLFCATCHER and BALLYGOWN BAY in a half decent event by Plumpton standards. MIDNIGHT MAESTRO and WOLFCATCHER hail from the six-year-old vintage which has won four of the eight renewals of this race to date. Out of interest, you might also care to consider the merits of Gary Moore’s pair of outsiders (Searching and Justification) as the trainer has snared three of the last five renewals of this contest.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this contest (eight renewals), with the last six market leaders all finishing out of the frame, stats which include two pairs of joint jollies.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Paddys Runner (good)

1/1—The Premier Celtic (good)

 

3.55: Seamus Mullis is only four short of winning 100 races at the ‘sister’ tracks of Plumpton and Fontwell in 27 years of training and gold medallist number 46 at Plumpton could be in the offing here with the trainer having offered the green light to his recent soft ground Taunton winner CAP HORNER.  Some old south coast favourites line up in opposition however, the pick of them on this occasion possibly being INDIAN CASTLE who represents the relentless Ian Williams yard which offers so many good chances to inmates under both codes, such is the talent of the trainer in my considered opinion.  INDIAN CASTLE attempts to become with fourth ten-year-old winner of this race in the last five years.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have snared Placepot positions, statistics which includes four winners in recent years.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Leo Luna (soft)

1/2—Holbrook Park (soft)

1/4—No Buts (heavy)

2/15—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

3/14—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – good)

 

4.30: Another trappy contest following the previous potential ‘dead eight’ event on the programme, with arguably INDIAN REEL, KING CHARLIE and HOWLONGISAFOOT standing out from the crowd.  The latter named Chris Gordon raider enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst Fergal O’Brien appears to have found a good opportunity for INDIAN REEL to go close.  That leaves KING CHARLIE to consider, especially with Suzy Smith (the Suzy with a ‘y’) having saddled two of her last five runners to winning effect, despite yesterday’s hike to Aintree having proved to be a fruitless journey.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though five years have slipped by since the last of the two winning favourites prevailed.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yukon Delta (good)

 

5.00: MR MUDDLE saves his best work for this venue given his three course victories on all types of surfaces, notwithstanding his five runner up efforts from just ten races at Plumpton down the years.  BROTHER BENNETT and YOURHOLIDAYISOVER represent some each way appeal at around the 15/2 mark this morning in the dead of night.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (15/8) market leader duly obliged.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good to firm – good – soft)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 1st April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.80 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.0% units went through – 1/2* (Win only)

Race 2: 71.2% of the remaining units when through – 11/4 & 9/4*

Race 3: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2 & 9/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/3*, 7/2 & 10/1

Race 5: 98.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 4/7*

Race 6: 37.0% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1** & 9/1 (2/1**)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Mister Malarkey), 5 (Traffic Fluide) & 1 (Indian Hercules)

Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Heurtevent), 2 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 3 (Champion Chase)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Lickpenny Larry) & 1 (Crafty Roberto)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Vado Forte), 3 (Jaisalmer) & 6 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 5 (4.20): 11 (Jumping Jack) & 7 (Pull Together)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (The Lion Dancer) & 4 (Two Hoots)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests and vintage representative MISTER MALARKEY seemingly has TRAFFIC FLUIDE to beat in the first race on the card.  Both horses have failed to live up to early expectations however, whereby INDIAN HERCULES is added into the Placepot mix for insurance purposes.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last eight renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Traffic Fluide (good to soft)

 

2.45:  Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-10 and HEURTEVENT might prove to be the value for money call in a trappy contest from my viewpoint.  Soft ground course winner FINNEGAN’S GARDEN demands respect in this grade/company, whilst CHAMPION CHASE in another potential winner in the field.

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Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners have scored at 16/1 & 12/1, whilst five winners in total during the last twelve years have won at 9/1 or more.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst six of the thirteen favourites secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

3.15: Chris Gordon has won with his last two runners in this race and yet this is one of just two events on the card where the trainer is not represented!  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that LICKPENNY LARRY must be the first name on the team sheet, given that Tom Gretton’s raider receives between eight and twenty two pounds from his four rivals here on what is likely to be desperate ground.  CRAFTY ROBERTO is offered up as the main threat despite his position at the top of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners in total scored at a top price of 9/2, whist three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged with five of the ten favourites finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Five, six and seven-year-olds have won the last seven renewals between them and I fancy the trend will be extended this time around by the likes of VADO FORTE, heavy ground course winner JAISALMER and EARLY DU LEMO who only found one too good on his reappearance after a long break at Newbury nine days ago.

Favourite factor: Two clear and one joint favourite have won via eight renewals, with only four of the eleven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.  This was the race two years ago which decimated Placepot units in their thousands with a 16/1 winner scoring from a 20/1 chance in a ‘short field’ event.  This was the only race which was unpredictable from a Placepot perspective, yet a great dividend of £298.90 was returned, despite the other five market leaders all finishing in the frame!  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  With the ground as bad as it seemingly is at Plumpton, there must be a fair chance that this ‘dead event’ will be reduced in numbers whereby the ‘short field factor’ could come into play.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sussex Champion Hurdle’:

1/2—Jaisalmer (heavy)

1/3—Kings Walk (soft)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals between them with the older vintage representatives leading 4-3 during the study period.  Four-year-old JUMPING JACK is the call this time around, though PULL TOGETHER should make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.  Gary Moore’s runners always have to be respected here at Plumpton where he enjoys a better record than at his other ‘local’ track Fontwell, though both of his raiders should be put in their respective places by the afore mentioned pair on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners scored at 25/1 & 14/1 following almost total domination by favourites for a long period.  Seven market leaders have won via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, whilst ten of the last eleven favourites secured Placepot positions.

 

4.55: Heavy ground course winner THE LION DANCER cannot be opposed from a Placepot perspective, even though skinny odds of around 6/4 look likely to be in place, though those quotes are substantially better than the 8/11 price marked up in the trade press overnight.  Conversely, 2/1 is the price across the board this morning about TWO HOOTS who was going to be around a 7/1 chance according to the relevant newspaper.  Happy Easter!

Favourite factor: One of the two 2/1 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year by winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—The Lion Dancer (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh (non Placepot) race at 5.30 on today’s card:

1/4—Ramore Will (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 18th March

Awaiting news from the racecourses this morning before deciding which venue to opt for, if any racing is possible today - latest update on conditions:

FFOS LAS: There is a two inch covering of snow here in Bristol this morning and the white stuff is scheduled to continue until lunchtime - no inspection was planned but you can understand my position, not wanting to commit until I know that the course has not been blitzed overnight.

CARLISLE: Inspection planned for 8.00 - The temperature is not expected to rise above two degrees at the track today; an obvious worry.

BAD NEWS - BOTH MEETINGS ABANDONED

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 18th February

MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £637.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 5 (Rouergate) & 4 (Potters Sapphire)

Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Samarayia), 10 (Dahills Hill) & 9 (Pretty Reckless)

Leg 3 (3.15): 8 (Nayati), 3 (Whatzdjazz) & 5 (Treshnish)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Captain Chaos) & 2 (Ozzy Thomas)

Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Midnight Merlot), 3 (Must Havea Flutter) & 5 (Norse Light)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Dawnieriver) & 2 (The Last Bridge)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Market Rasen has always been a difficult track to assess and today’s card in no different to normal.  Few trainers excel here, though Dan Skelton’s figures this season make for interesting reading, with Dan having declared six runners today.  Dan saddles runners later on the card whereby Venetia Williams can get the programme off and running to winning effect with ROUERGATE.  The positive vibes on the exchanges in the dead of night suggest that Venetia’s Sageburg mare has been schooling well following her fall at Ludlow last time out when travelling like a winner. Only POTTERS SAPPHIRE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

 

2.45: Henry Oliver sends SAMARAYIA handicapping for the first time and Aidan Coleman’s mount is the each way call in the contest and I suspect that the 8/1 quote by 365 this morning will not last long after the offices open for business.  Dan Skelton’s first runner on the card is PRETTY RECKLESS who is the only course winner in the line up, whilst DAHILLS HILL represents Graeme McPherson who has done well at this corresponding meeting down the years.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader found one too good when claiming a Placepot position before last year’s 2/1 market leader made amends.

Record of the course winners in the second event on the card:

1/1—Pretty Reckless (good to soft)

 

3.15:  The 13/2 trade press quote about Alan King’s hat trick seeker NAYATI always looked fanciful and there is every indication that Alan’s Spirit One gelding can land the treble in this grade/handicap, though at probably no bigger price than 5/1 by the time that the starter drops his flag.  That said, this is a competitive race, with the likes of WHAYZDJAZZ and TRESHNISH also having been declared.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 favourite was the only horse which failed to complete the course, whilst detectives are still out searching for last year’s 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/1—Apasionado (good)

1/1—Whatzdjazz (good)

1/3—Mr Kite (good)

 

3.50: Only CAPTAIN CHAOS and OZZY THOMAS can be taken seriously as we head into the second half of our favourite wager.  For the record, the two runners are listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Market Rasen programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/29—The Society Man (soft) – this is not typo error!

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4.20: Noel Williams does not saddle many runner but the Oxfordshire based trainer has already sent out a couple of winners this year and I fancy that MIDNIGHT MERLOT can take Noel’s 2018 strike rate to 25% this afternoon, with seemingly MUST HAVEA FLUTTER and NORSE LIGHT to beat.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 6/4 & 11/8.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:

1/3—Sunny Legend (heavy)

1/3—Dartford Warbler (soft)

 

4.50: All six winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, with DAWNIERIVEER and THE LAST BRIDGE taken to land the Placpot dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg.  DAWNIERIVER makes quite a lot of appeal given Bet365’s 6/1 quote, if you are up early enough to take advantage of their ‘generosity’.

Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, whist we still await the first success market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—The Last Bridge (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runner (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios this season at the track (in brackets) this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Dan Skelton (18/48 +27) – 36/132 +25

3—Sue Smith (1/14 - loss of 9 points) – 9/78 – loss of 44

3—Vic Thompson (First runners this season) – 1/7 +3

2—Jennie Candlish (1/5 +1) – 6/45 – loss of 21

2—David Dennis (1/3 +5) – 8/47 – loss of 14

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/9 – loss of 2) – 5/19 +2

2—Sam England (1/3 +1) – 1/10 – loss of 5

2—Andrew J Martin (0/2) – 2/11 +7

2—Graeme McPherson (2/14 – loss of 5) – 5/43 – loss of 12

2—Henry Oliver (1/3 +2) – 4/22 – loss of 6

2—Michael Scudamore (0/7) – 1/17 – loss of 13

2—Lucy Wadham (0/7) – 2/48 – loss of 2

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 8/33 – loss of 1

+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

50 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £274.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)

Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)

Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable.  Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about.  Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP.  That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability.  With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

 

1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event.  Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit.  Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests.  CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation.  The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1.  That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—City Supreme (heavy)

1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)

 

2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote.  The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals.  Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis.  The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term.  Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career.   The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.

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Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)

2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend.  Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6)

5—Anthony Honeyball (1)

4—Paul Henderson (1)

3—Diana Grissell

3—Colin Tizzard (1)

2—Zoe Davidson (1)

2—Nick Gifford (1)

2—Linda Jewell (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—Seamus Mullins

2—Brendan Powell (1)

2—Dan Skelton

2—Sam Thomas

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 24th November

ASCOT - NOVEMBER 24

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £52.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 3 (Sternrubin), 2 (Sizing Tennessee) & 4 (Dolos)

Leg 2 (1.30): 12 (Storm Of Intrigue), 10 (Settie Hill) & 15 (Turtle Wars)

Leg 3 (2.05): 7 (Kayf Grace) & 2 (Mr One More)

Leg 4 (2.40): 3 (Kilcrea) & 5 (Thomas Brown)

Leg 5 (3.15): 1 (Bally Longford), 4 (Brandon Hill) & 2 (Marcilhac)

Leg 6 (3.50): 5 (Don Bersy), 2 (Verdana Blue) & 10 (Eddiemaurice)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: Six-year-olds have secured four of the five available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include all four (5/2-Evens*-8/13-4/7*) winners. Dual course winner STERNRUBIN is very much the pick of the two vintage representatives here, though SIZING TENNESSEE looks sure to produce a decent challenge at some stage up the home straight.  The concession of eight pounds by both horses suggests that DOLOS is not entirely out of the mix either.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (4/7, 8/13 & Evens) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event: 

2/4—Sternrubin (good & good to soft)

 

1.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-years old 3-2 via just the five renewals to date though on the Placepot front, the advantage is reversed with the older horses having edge via stats of 8-7, with the two vintages having totally dominated the fifteen available positions to date.  Nicky Henderson saddles three horses and representing the two dominant vintages, I’m going to retire to the bar in siding with the three relevant raiders, namely STORM OF INTRIGUE, SETTLE HILL and TURTLE WARS.  It’s worth noting that Nicky has saddled seven winning at this corresponding (Friday) meeting during the last five years, three clear of his nearest pursuer (Venetia Williams).

Favourite factor: All five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the second race: 

1/1—King Of Realms (good to soft)

 

2.05: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, with MR ONE MORE looking to be the pick of the three relevant declarations on this occasion.  Although Harry Fry drew a blank at the two day fixture twelve months ago, the trainer saddled four winners the year before and Harry certainly has a decent prospect in MR ONE MAN. That said, Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last six renewals if this event whereby KAYF GRACE could be the answer from a win perspective.  Before you go ‘lumping on’ however, sobering stats are also in place as Nicky has saddled the beaten favourites on each of the three occasion when failing to lift the prize in recent years.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.

 

2.40: KILCREA VALE was one of the beaten (Nicky Henderson trained) favourites which I referred to in the previous race though to be entirely fair to the Beneficial gelding, KILCREA VALE was coasting in front when coming down at the second last in the relevant contest.  Providing he avoids the same mistake here, Nico’s mount should go close to winning, though connections of THOMAS BROWN will justifiably be confident of a decent effort, albeit a little more juice in the ground would have been classed as a bonus. If you want to take on the market leaders in this contest, FORTUNATE GEORGE represents the in form of yard of Emma Lavelle, with the booking of Richard Johnson particularly catching the eye.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader obliged, though both of last year’s 5/2 joint favourites finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Thomas Brown (soft)

 

3.20: Nine of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, three of which were returned as favourites.  Six of the gold medallists carried 11-5 or more and I subscribe to the view that the number will be increased here, with either BALLY LONGFORD or BRANDON HILL obliging,   Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals (and five of the last ten) which also brings MARCILHAC into the equation, especially as Daryl Jacob’s mount is the only Venetia Williams entry on the card, given that she has saddled four winners at the meeting during the last five years.  More juice in the ground would have made yours truly more confident from a win perspective.  Antony looks sure to run his race but with Gary Moore only having saddled one of his last 25 runners to winning effect, I’m happy to swerve the projected favourite.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have finished out of the money thus far but that said, 20 of the 27 horses to secure toteplacepot positions (including eight of the ten winners) were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/3—Antony (good)

3.50: The lone course winner in the field looks like having the same (winning) conditions here whereby the chance of EDDIEMAURICE is respected, especially from a Placepot perspective.  A little money is creeping into the market relating to the Tom Symonds entry DON BERSY (take a look at the trainer stats below), whilst VERDANA BLUE completes my trio against the remaining nine contenders.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 14 clear favourites have obliged, whilst six of the last eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Eddiemaurice (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by five year Ascot stats + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (24/120 – loss of 33 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (14/85 – loss of 4 points)

4—Gary Moore (2/33 – loss of 18 points)

4—Colin Tizzard (8/53 +6)

3—Paul Nicholls (28/139 – loss of 13 points)

3—Harry Fry (12/44 +5)

3—Dai Williams (0/1)

2—Alan King (10/67 – loss of 14 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/54 – loss of 12 points)

2—Tom Symonds (2/8 +18)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Castterick: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Ffos Las: £36.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle A/W: £140.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 12th November

SANDOWN - NOVEMBER 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £703.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Bastien), 1 (Capeland) & 5 (Paddys Runner)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Challonial), 7 (Touch Kick) & 10 (Bally Gilbert)

Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (Irish Prophecy) & 7 (Second Time Around)

Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (Might Bite) & 3 (As De Mee)

Leg 5 (2.55): 6 (Sword Of Fate), 8 (Garo De Juilley) & 7 (Wolfcatcher)

Leg 6 (3.30): 1 (Double Ross) & 8 (Pete The Feat)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.45: Gary Moore ruled the Sandown venue with a stunning ratio of 10/25 (profit of 65 points to level stakes) the season before last which was set up when landing a 1529/1 treble on this corresponding card two years ago.  Gary endured a season he will want to forget at the track last year however, as the stats at the foot of the column will reveal.  Mr Fickle represented the yard in this event twelve months ago when finishing with only one behind him, with ten pound claimer James Nuttall retaining the ride.  I expect Gary to have better luck later on the card, preferring the likes of CAPELAND and BASTIEN this time around. The latter named six-year-old is the only vintage raider here in an attempt to maintain their 100% record in the race following three renewals.  There is a threat of rain arriving late morning into the early part of the afternoon in the Esher area which could disrupt the form book. That said, PADDYS RUNNER (placed on the  corresponding card last year) should not be affected either way whereby the five-year-old is added into the equation.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has claimed a Placepot position, without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.20: Harry Fry secured a 32/1 treble yesterday via just six runners whereby the team will have plenty of confidence going into today’s sport.  A winner of two of his five races to date, Harry’s CHALONNIAL is their lone representative today and providing he takes to fencing, the five-year-old should figure prominently with any rain in the area likely to increase his chance of winning.  TOUCH KICK appears to be the main danger, though money has come for BALLY GILBERT overnight which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite could only finish second in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.50: Alan King has failed to visit the area reserved for winning connections for the last six years in any race at the corresponding fixture, though that poor run (by Alan’s high standards) could end here via his Market Rasen winner SECOND TIME AROUND in a race which might not prove difficult to win.  That said, Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY was all the rage on the exchanges in the dead of night whereby the trade press quote of even money might be difficult to obtain towards flag fall. It’s interesting to note that some of the top trainers have swerved this event and the possibility of meeting up with Emma’s raider could be the reason why.  The chance of LEAPAWAY cannot be entirely ignored with Philip Hobbs having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, notwithstanding an 80/1 silver medallist during the period!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/15 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson will be glancing up at the skies as he travels to Sandown today I’ll wager.  His star representative MIGHT BITE is a winner of seven of his twelve races to date but his one assignment on bad ground brought about a defeat.  The forecast suggests that heavy rain (if any at all) is doubtful whereby the ton in hand he has of his rivals here should ensure success.  These fences have brought about the downfall of many good horses in the past however and with two of his three rivals having already won here on soft ground, I doubt I will be in the queue to take odds of around 1/4 this afternoon, irrespective of whether we endure the wet stuff. AS DE MEE has won twice around here and looks to be the forecast call, if you want to play the race that way.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the eleven renewals during the last twelve years, in which nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

2/6—As De Mee (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Label Des Obeaux (soft)

 

2.55: Eight of the nine horses that have secured Placepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 and though three results hardly form a trend as such, I would rather have the figures on my side than against.  The pick of the relevant horses in Sunday’s contest will hopefully prove to be SWORD OF FATE, GARO DE JUILLEY and WOLFCATCHER from the yard of Ian Williams who saddled last year’s winner, notwithstanding his great double via both codes yesterday.  WENYERREADYFREDDIE makes his handicap debut and could yet be anything, though whether Nicky Henderson’s projected favourite will offer any value for money from a Placepot perspective here is open to plenty of doubt.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites have snared Placepot positions by securing gold and silver medals thus far.

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3.30: A typical Sandown Steeplechase which will create panic in the ranks should a non runner rear its ugly head before flag fall.  DOUBLE ROSS looks the safest bet as far as our favourite wager is concerned, not that I would even attempt to name the winner in the Placepot finale.  Ground conditions will not affect the Twiston-Davies raider either way, with connections possibly having most to fear from PETE THE FEAT and CREEVYTENNANT.

Favourite factor: The inaugural trio of 4/1 co favourites all missed out on Placepot positions in a short field contest.  One of the two joint favourites subsequently obliged twelve months later, though that still leaves an unimpressive 1/5 ratio from a Placepot viewpoint to consider.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

2/4—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

1/4—Pete The Feat (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Sunday followed by stats at the course last season and the relevant profits losses accrued:

6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/40 – loss of 21 points)

4—Nicky Henderson (11/42 – Slight loss)

4—Alan King (5/13 +5)

4—Gary Moore (2/32 – loss of 17 points)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7)

4—Dan Skelton (0/6)

3—Charlie Longsdon (2/15 +9)

2—Stuart Edmunds (0/4)

2—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – loss of 5 points)

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/12 +2)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/9 +9)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/14 +18)

2—Evan Williams (0/7)

2—Ian Williams (3/9 +12)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £230.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st October

ASCOT - OCTOBER 21

 

It’s worth noting that on better ground twelve months ago compared to this year’s projected going, only 23.5% of the original Placepot investments were still live going into race two.  By the half way stage, just 1.2% of investors still retained a Placepot interest. Those facts should keep your feet firmly on the (soggy) ground in terms of investment!

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £230.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 7 (Order Of St George) & 5 (Duretto)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Caraggio) & 10 (Harry Angel)

Leg 3 (2.40): 2 (Bateel) & 3 (Journey)

Leg 4 (3.15): 8 (Beat The Bank), 2 (Here Comes When) & 12 (Persuasive)

Leg 5 (3.50): 9 (Cracksman), 7 (Brametot) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Firmament), 14 (Eddystone Rock), 12 (Zabeel Prince), 11 (Dark Red & 13 (White Lake)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: It is hardly surprising that Irish trainers have declared runners for this opening event, given that raiders from across the Irish Sea have secured four of the last six events.  That said, last year’s 4/6 market leader ORDER OF ST GEORGE finished out of the frame back in fourth place, though today’s softer ground should (I repeat should) enable Ryan More’s mount to claim a Placepot position at the very least.  We have to take the staying ability of DURETTO on trust but in a race in which too many horses meet each other on a regular basis, Andrew Balding’s raider could be the one to shake up the favourite, albeit Andrew’s 0/28 record here at Ascot this term in a sobering stat to digest. STRADIVARIUS is the clear third choice from my viewpoint.  Out of interest, 26 course winners contest the six races at Ascot today. Just to make the art of picking winners a tad more difficult!

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four gold medals and two of the silver variety.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

2/4—Big Orange (good & good to firm)

2/6—Dartmouth (good to firm & good to soft)

2/5—Duretto (good to soft & soft)

1/3—Order Of St George (soft)

1/6—Skeikhzayedroad (good)

1/2—Mount Moriah (good)

1/1—Stradivarious (good to firm)

 

2.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, with

HARRY ANGEL and CARAVAGGIO heading the chances of four vintage representative by a country mile this time around.  Both horses have won on this type of ground, a factor which also brings LIBRISA BREEZE into the Placepot equation, especially with Dean Ivory have saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect, statistics which have brought about 59 points of level stake profit.  That said, the first named pair should take plenty of kicking out of the frame from what we have witnessed thus far, though don’t be at all surprised of Dean’s five-year-old representative leads the older horses home, possibly just ahead of The Tin Man.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/5—Danzeno (good)

2/5—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)

3/5—The Tin Man (2 x good & good to firm)

1/4—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Caravaggio (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Quiet Reflection (good to soft)

 

2.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the nine renewals thus far, with CORONET and HORSEPLAY expected to lead the juniors home on this occasion.  Proven soft ground winner BATEEL (winner of five of her eight races to date) has been saved for this race for some time by the look of things, with connections of the French raider only having to worry about last year’s highly impressive winner JOURNEY at the business end of proceedings from a win perspective, according to the gospel of yours truly at least.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Alyssa (good)

1/2—Journey (good)

1/1—Coronet (good to firm)

 

3.15: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals with junior representatives a shade of odds on to extend the advantage still further before the form book is consulted.  BEAT THE BANK is the (highly) progressive runner in the race given that his last three victories have been gained in Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 company hence the million dollar Question has to be asked this time around; can the Paco Boy gelding extend that sequence to snare a Group 1 event?  We will soon find out whilst not ignoring the each way chance of Andrew Balding’s stable companion HERE COMES WHEN who landed the Sussex Stakes, providing yours truly with one his best results of the year.  Connection and media types suggested that the muddling pace of that race brought about the downfall of favourite RIBCHESTER, though I believe that was only part of the reason for the defeat of the market leader that day.  Indeed, Andrew’s Danehill Dancer gelding held a fine chance as I pointed out on the day and his success has been largely overlooked in terms of the odds available for this event.  This is particularly pleasing from my viewpoint, given the differential of 2/1 and 22/1 according to recent quotes!  The ground will once again be in favour of HERE COMES WHEN who was gobbled up at 33/1 (from an each way perspective) when the original odds were offered to your columnist.  As a winner of her only race at Ascot on soft ground to date, the 28/1 quote this morning about PERSUASIVE is something of an insult to John Gosden’s Dark Angel filly.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame (seven winners), though I should remind you of the defeat of Hawk Wing back in 2002 at odds of 1/2.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Queen Elizabeth’:

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1/3—Breton Rock (soft)

2/3—Ribchester (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Churchill (good to soft)

1/1—Persuasive (soft)

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, with four-year-olds having secured three of the other four contests.  No four-year-olds have made the final line up this time around, though five-year-old HIGHLAND REEL is something of a ‘forgotten horse’ here, albeit I admit that faster ground would have been ideal.  That said, Aidan has hinted on more than one occasion that this Galileo representative continues to be underrated and it would not surprise me in the least if it is only the ground which beats Ryan Moore’s mount on this occasion.  John Gosden has no such worries with CRACKSMAN relating to conditions, though his hike back in trip adds interest to proceedings, whilst BRAMETOT will probably prove to be the value for money call from a Placepot perspective, given that British punters tend to ignore such individuals, certainly in terms against their actual win odds.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period. That all said, the two successful market leaders were New Approach and Frankel before last year’s French raider obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Champion Stakes:

1/2—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/4—High land Reel (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Barney Roy (good to firm)

 

4.30: Five-year-olds have won all three contests and the quartet of relevant representatives are around the 11/2 mark to land the four-timer before the form book is consulted.  The quartet are listed in order of preference as FIRMAMENT (third in this event twelve months ago), EDDYSTONE ROCK, DARK RED and WHITE LAKE.  The latter named raider represents Roger Varian, whose other runner ZABEEL PRINCE is the obvious danger to the five-year-old contingent.  It’s worth noting that Roger’s pair are his only runners on the card.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished out with the washing via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Speculative Bid (good to firm)

1/2—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

2/7—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

12 runners—Aidan O’Brien (6/38 – loss of 8 points)

10—John Gosden (5/58 – loss of 18 points)

5—Andrew Balding (0/28)

5—Richard Hannon (5/52 +1)

4—Richard Fahey (2/38 +15)

4—David Simcock (2/24 +11)

3—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 5 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (2/24 – loss of 15 points)

2—Clive Cox (1/25 – loss of 19 points)

2—William Haggas (8/45 +6)

2—C Laffron-Parias (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/32 – loss of 6 points)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/24 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/35 – loss of 20 points)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

81 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £230.50 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Ffos Las: £32.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Market Rasen: £3,750.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Stratford: £383.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhmapton: £11.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 17th September

BATH - SEPTEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £160.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Frank Cool), 1 (Fantasy Justifier) & 2 (Spirit Of Rosanna)

Leg 2 (2.45): 7 (Whiteley), 6 (David’s Beauty) & 4 (Cee Jay)

Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Edged Out), 7 (Secret Potion) & 6 (Pastfact)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Spanish Star), 4 (Aquadabra) & 7 (Hastenplace)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Roundhay Park), 6 (Maygold) & 1 (Big Time Maybe)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Storm Melody) & 8 (Dandilion)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: FRANK COOL (drawn 8/17) should prove difficult to kick out of the frame and for those of you who only opt for one horse in each leg of our favourite wager, ‘Frank’ would be the unoriginal call albeit from a win perspective, my money would be saved for later on the card.  Others to consider is a frightening opening event include FANTASY JUSTIFIER (16) and SPIRIT OF ROSANNA (4), if only because will then have a representative from all sectors of the draw.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured via three renewals thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/5—Triple Dream (good to firm & firm)

 

2.45: I remember that I recently mentioned that I find WHITELEY difficult to call because when I opt for the Channon representative she lets me down and the reverse is true when I give her opposed her in the past.  Either way, I am inclined to include Mick’s Dark Angel filly in my Placepot mix, alongside the likes of DAVID’S BEAUTY and CEE JAY with both of the two ‘dangers’ having received financial support overnight.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply.  All four favourites have secured via three renewals thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second event:

1/4—Posh Bounty (soft)

1/6—Kingstreet Lady (firm)

2/10—Angelito (good & good to firm)

 

3.15: Let’s hope for a more peaceful contest than was the case last year, when a horse bolted on the way to the start before being withdrawn, alongside two others before a new market could be formed.  EDGED OUT was the horse that bolted last year but having won here last time out (albeit back in June), Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare is not without a chance at around the 8/1 mark this afternoon.  Overnight support has emerged for PASTFACT despite the fact that his two wins at the track have been gained on firm ground.  That said, the ‘local’ Malcolm Saunders raider won on his one and only assignment on good to soft going to date, hence the support I’ll wager.  SECRET POTION completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via four renewals) have finished in the frame to date, though we still await the first winning favourite.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/23—Edged Out (good to firm & firm)

1/1—Delagate The Lord (good)

2/3—Pastfact (2 x form)

2/6—Secret Potion (good & good to soft)

 

3.45: AQUADABRA and SPANISH STAR are the two horses that attract the eye at first glance this morning.  The only course winner in the field, Aquadabra was scoring under very quick conditions here at Bath that day but it’s worth noting that she was beaten less than two lengths on tacky ground at Carlisle on her penultimate start at that stage of her career.  You can ignore the 6/1 quote in the trade press about SPANISH STAR as current 9/2 odds (in three places at the time of writing) are not likely to last long, given that the Requinto gelding is as short as 10/3 with a couple of firms already.  I note that HASTENPLACE ‘splits the books’ as dawn begins to break over the City of Bristol, possibly because Luke Morris takes over in the saddle for the first time aboard Rod Millman’s Compton Place filly.

Favourite factor: This Nursery event is a new race on the Bath card.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

4.15: I prefer the chance of BIG TIME MAYBE of Tom Dascombe’s two Nursery runners in this split (two divisions) two-year-old handicap but even then, slight preference is for ROUNDHAY PARK and MAYGOLD, if you were contemplating a bet from a win perspective.  You will note that I have opted for a large permutation on a quiet day, mainly in the belief that this card looks tailor made to produce a really good Placepot dividend, any which way I look at the six races.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous new (Nursery) event on the programme.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Zain Smarts (good to firm)

1/2—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

 

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4.45: Little wonder that last year’s inaugural winner STORM MELODY has come on for overnight support, as Jonjo O’Neill’s four-year-old Royal Applause gelding carries up to 17 pounds less than when successful twelve months ago, if the relevant claimer can call on all three pounds of his allowance.  George Wood is fair value for that ‘edge’ and when we consider that STORM MELODY races off just a one pound lower mark this time around, his each way/Placepot chance is there for all to see.  Part of the reason for the ‘inbalance’ is the declaration of Pixieleen at the top of the weights, though the Malcolm Saunders raider would be seen to much better effect under faster conditions.  I prefer the likes of DANDILION and OUR LORD as the main threats to the unquestionable selection STORM MELODY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite finished nearer last than first.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Zain Smarts (good to firm)

1/2—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

2/7--Pixieleen (2 x firm)

2/5—Our Lord (good & soft)

2/5—Coronation Cottage (good to firm & firm)

1/3—Storm Melody (good to soft)

1/12--Showmethewayavrilo (soft)

2/5--Archimedes (good to firm & firm)

3/18—Jaganory (good – good to firm – firm)

5/22--Captain Ryan (3 x firm + good to firm + good to soft)

1/2--Prominna (good to soft)

2/11--Burauq (good to firm & good to soft)

Draw details form last year (only renewal to date:

5-14-9-6 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Bath card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Malcolm Saunders (9/34 +7)

5—Tony Carroll (3/23 +8)

4—Milton Bradley (3/30 – loss of 9 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (0/7)

3—Ron Harris (6/32 +16)

3—Steph Hollinshead (1/5 +3)

3—William Muir (0/24)

2—Michael Attwater (3/9 – slight profit)

2—Mick Channon (4/30 – loss of 9 points)

2—Tom Dascombe (0/4)

2—Geoffrey Deacon (1/7 – level on the year)

2—Grace Harris (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/18 +12)

2—Richard Price (1/4 +5)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £158.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th August

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 3 - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.50 (9 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Fidaawy), 1 (Appeared) & 9 (Game Starter)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Dai Harraild), 9 (Thomas Hobson) & 8 (St Michel)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Jalotta), 7 (Mix And Mingle) & 15 (Daban)

Leg 4 (3.35): 12 (Lady Aurelia) & 9 (Battaash)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Commander Han), 6 (Dowell) & 9 (Gabr)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Battered), 7 (Mojito) & 10 (Harroob)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eleven contests or eight of eleven if you prefer, as two vintage representatives dead heated in 2015!  The last nine winners have carried 9-3 or more which was extremely relevant to last year’s year’s contest, as just two horses passed the weight 'qualification' which included the 5/1 winner. Indeed as a four-year-old, Barsanti was the only horses to possess tick in the two relevant boxes.  That honour this year is bestowed upon 14/1 chance FIDAAWY from Sir Michael Stoute’s in form yard whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  The other three horses via the weight trends all have win and place claims on the best of their form, namely APPEARED, RED GALILEO and ERIK THE RED.  If the weight stats go base over apex on this occasion, the joker in the pack would probably prove to be the unexposed Godpolohin representative GAME STARTER.

Favourite factor: One clear and two joint favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1. That said, six of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (12 furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

2-8-4 (15 ran-good to firm_

10-8-19-1 (17 ran-good to soft - dead heat 1st place)

6-18-4-5 (16 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-14-3-4 (19 ran-good)

2-1-4-11 (20 ran-good to soft)

10-8-17-2 (16 ran-good)

12-10-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

16-8-6-4 (19 ran-good)

11-9-8-1 (19 ran-good to soft)

8-14-16-9 (18 ran-good)

19-3-1-17 (21 ran-good)

6-19-7-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

11-16-12-13 (20 ran-good)

11-14-4-9 (20 ran-good)

10-7-3-15 (18 ran-good)

6-4-3-16 (18 ran-good)

10-8-14 (14 ran-good)

14-4-10 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Appeared (good)

1/5—Mukhayyem (good to firm)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests whilst securing ten of the last twenty three available toteplacepot positions, despite the vintage not having been represented in two of the last three years. Course winner DAI HARRAILD and ST MICHEL appear to be the pick of this year’s relevant trio, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Willie Mullins has given THOMAS HOBSON a rest since his two races within the space of five days at Royal Ascot.  The successful first sortie in the Ascot Stakes offered an impressive performance to say the least and it might have been asking too much to take in the ‘Queen Alexandra’ over an additional furlongs later that week.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 19 contests.  13 of the 19 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Course winners in the Lonsdale Cup:

1/1—Dartmouth (soft)

1/1—Dai Harraild (good to firm)

1/2—Sheikhzayedroad (good to firm)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests in a race which was held on the Saturday of the four day fixture until a few of years ago.  Only two vintage representative have been declared this year which I cannot understand, though upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that both MIX AND MINGLE and VISCOUNT BARFIELD can outrun their respective prices of 14/1 and 33/1 at the time of writing.  JALLOTA finished third in this race last year and runs off just a one pound lower mark this time around off the same weight.  Charlie Hills still remains enthusiastic about this horse and boasting a 40% strike rate this venue on good going, JALOTTA is the win and place option I will be taking. Others to consider in a tough heat include DABAN and MUBTASIM.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won via the last nineteen renewals, whilst fifteen market leaders have reached the frame in the process.  Favourites of one description or another have won the last three renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last nine years was sent off at 7/1.

Draw factor' (7 furlongs):

7-4-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-3-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-good)

3-8 (6 ran-soft)

8-5-11 ( 9 ran-good to soft)

8-6-3 (11 ran-good)

6-15-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

11/12 (dead heat)-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

3-1-8 (14 ran-good)

6-4-8 (10 ran-soft)

5-4-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-11-6 (11 ran-soft)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-5-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (8 ran-good)

7-8-9 (11 ran-good)

4-10-5 (11 ran—good)

6-2 (6 ran-firm)

6-3-2 (9 ran-good)

Course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gordon Lord Byron (good to soft)

1/1—Aeolus (good)

2/5—Jalotta (2 x good)

1/4—So Believed (good)

1/2—Viscount Barfield (good to firm)

 

3.35: People have been suggesting to me that I have been less than respectful to supposed ‘top notch‘ sprinters in recent years but let’s have a look at the facts shall we.  Sharpo achieved the true sense of a hat trick back in the eighties, whilst other brilliant speedsters to win include Never So Bold, Lochsong and the truly outstanding Dayjur.  The last two-year-old winner of the race (there have only been two juvenile winners during the last 37 years) was Kingsgate Native back in 2007 though no two-year-old raiders have been declared this time around.  Finally, we look to have a race to live up to the billings of ‘yesteryear’, with the flying filly LADY AUERLIA being challenged by BATTAASH.  The ground should be perfect for a fast run race by tomorrow afternoon accord to the weather experts, whereby there should be no excuses offered by beaten connections.  If you want a really speculative type to carry your each way cash, TAKE COVER would be the call.

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Favourite factor: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though 12 of the other 15 market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just six of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last ten winners scored at 100/1-40/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-9/1-15/2.

Draw factor (5 furlongs):

7-4-12 (19 ran-good)

10-4-5 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

8-5-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

8-10-1 (19 ran-good)

11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

13-7-16 (16 ran-good)

6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)

8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-8-3 (10 ran-good)

1-14-10 (13 ran-good)

13-1-3 (16 ran-good)

2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

Course winners in the ‘Nunthorpe’:

1/1—Alpha Delphini (good)

2/5—Duke Of Firenze (good to firm & soft)

1/3—Profitable (good)

3/6—Take Cover (2 x good & soft)

1/1—Marsha (good)

 

4.15: There are worse outsiders on the card than the Champagne Stakes and the Royal Lodge entry COMMANDER HAN I’ll wager, especially with Kevin Ryan boasting a much better record with his juveniles here at York than with his older runners.  Indeed, Kevin's strike rate with two-year-olds during the last five years at York stands at 17% via 19 winners at the time of writing, compared to a ratio of 4% via six winners with his older raiders.  Others to consider in something of a lottery include two of the runners with experience, namely DOSWELL and GABR.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions (two 15/8 & 6/4 winners) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

Draw factor (7 furlongs):

2-16-12 (18 ran-good to soft)

10-7-12 (16 ran-good)

2-10-13 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

 

4.50: Eleven of the fourteen available toteplacepot positions thus far have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 9-2 and though four renewals hardly constitutes a trend, this self-confessed 'anorak' has to have something to cling to in offering an 'edge', especially when the figures include three (33/1-16/1-5/1) of the four winners.  The Haggas pair BATTERED and MOJICO and HORROOB will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale, with BALESTRA offered up as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: All three (5-1-4/1-11/4) favourites had finished out with the washing before two of the three 5/1 co favourites landed the forecast between them twelve months ago.  The third market leader was well in arrears however.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Syphax (good to firm)

1/5--Battered (soft)

1/3--Appointed (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday and their number of winners on the corresponding day at York during the last six years:

6 runners—William Haggas (2 winners)

6—Charlie Hills (1 winner)

5—Mark Johnston

5—Roger Varian (1 winner)

4—Tim Easterby (1 winner)

4—Richard Fahey (1 winner)

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Mick Easterby

3—Richard Hannon

3—David O’Meara (1 winner)

3—Kevin Ryan (1 winner)

2—Andrew Balding (1 winner)

2—Clive Cox (1 winner)

2—Ed Dunlop

2—John Gosden

2—David C Griffiths

2—Tony Martin

2—Hugo Palmer (1 winner)

2—Sir Mark Prescott

2—David Simcock

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3 winners)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

92 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £35.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Goodwood: £89.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Hamilton: £1,716.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unoplaced

Salisbury: £610.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: £70.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 15th August

FFOS LAS – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Ffos Las: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Zambesi Queen), 8 (Topmeup) & 7 (Diminutive)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Indomeneo) & 3 (Isle Of Man)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Liva), 4 (Simply Breathless), 2 (Ventura Dragon) & 3 (Airshow)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Ancient Longing) & 6 (Hawridge Flyer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Katabatika) & 4 (Trauttman)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Catcher On The Go), 5 (Moabit) & 8 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: DIMINUTIVE is the only course winner in the field and the fact that the victory was gained under soft conditions suggests that the Fast Company representative might outrun her 25/1 price tag at the time of writing.  That said, more logical winners in the line up include ZAMBEZI QUEEN and TOPMEUP.  Paul Cole (ZAMBEZI QUEEN) has sent out two of his last three runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: There is no history attached to this meeting

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/8—Diminutive (soft)

 

2.45: Try as hard as I might, I cannot find a previous runner for Richard Fahey at this venue whereby the declaration of his INDOMENEO makes for interesting reading.  A winner of two of his last three assignments, Richard’s Piccolo colt has the benefit of a seven pound claimer to reduce the welter 9-13 burden.  Clive Cox appears to have found a decent opportunity for his Exceed And Excel newcomer ISLE OF MAN who is well related in terms of previous winners.  Clive’s late (April 29) foal is preferred to Livingstones Quest as the main danger to the tentative selection.

 

3.15: Given the way that Placepot dividends are greatly enhanced by ‘win only’ events (for obvious reasons), it would be churlish to try and pick over the form issues of the four runners in this contest.  The general advice is usually to include all four runners in your permutation before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least units prevails, a scenario which is not as infrequent as you might imagine. This is (of course) an expensive way of being involved with your bet today but if we are playing up winnings (as is the case from Windsor last night), the speculative option is most certainly the way to proceed.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Liva (good)

 

3.45: Following no less than 41 assignments under the other code of our favourite sport, STILL BELIEVING makes his flat debut this afternoon, though the distance slightly short of a mile and a half raises the odd eyebrow or two in this dwelling.  Support for the Evan Williams raider throughout the day would change my mind but given that I do not have that option via this service, I prefer to stick with ANCIENT LONGING and HAWRIDGE FLYER.  Either way, this pair should see us safely through to the next leg, whilst confirming that I would not get involved in this race other than the Placepot investment.

 

4.15: Hughie Morrison’s Inmates are running well enough from an each way perspective of late, though winners elude the team just now, whereby I would only accommodate KATABATIKA in Placepot terms, preferring to swerve the contest as far as selecting a winner is concerned.  TRAUTTMAN is presumably named after the famous Manchester City goalkeeper who would put today’s ‘starlets’ to shame in terms of feigning injury and all the other antics that ‘professional’ players get up to these days.  Bert played the last 17 minutes of the 1956 Cup Final (when men were men) with a broken neck to protect his team’s 3-1 lead and was eventually awarded the CBE for his services to football.  I digress, eventually wishing to include TRAUTTMAN in my Placepot permutation this afternoon.

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4.45: An interesting sixth leg which suggests that the skinny 5/4 odds about VEILED SECRET might be worth passing up, a view which Bet365 obviously agree by going out on a limb at 6/4 at the time of writing.  In case the difference between the two prices don’t appear to be that different, it’s worth pointing out that the differential between the quote is similar to a horse being backed down from 9/1 to 6/1.  Paul Nicholls has won with six of his last 17 runners, with his representative MOABIT having won four of her eight races on the level thus far.  STERNRUBIN has split the layers in terms of the price of the projected second favourite (anything between 7/2 and 5/1), whilst the declarations of CATCHER ON THE GO and THISTIMENEXTYEAR add interest to proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Catcher On The Go (heavy)

1/2—Nabhan (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ffos Las card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David Evans (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

3—Peter Bowen (1/1 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (0/2)

3—Evan Williams (2/13 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/3)

2—Nickki Evans (2/29 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)

2—Dan Kubler (0/1)

2—John McConnell (1/3 – slight loss)

2—Rod Millman (0/2)

2—Richard Price (0/2)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £120.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Thirsk: £31.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd August

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £476.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Good Omen), 13 (Morning Suit), 12 (Monticello) & 14 (Hold Sway)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Dawn Horizons), 5 (Endless Time) & 6 (Harlequeen)

Leg 3 (3.00): 9 (Nebo), 1 (Cardsharp) & 4 (Etefaaq)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Sobetsu)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Poetic Steps), 6 (Jedi Master), 3 (Billesdon Brook) & 2 (Tangled)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Magical)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: I’m sure it goes without saying that the advice today is to keep stakes low given the ground conditions.  At least watch the first race to see how slowly the track is riding before you wade in with your hard earned cash.  Upwards and onward to inform that 13 of the last 16 winners have carried weights of nine stones or less, whilst Mark Johnston (responsible for the 25/1 runner up In 2012 before saddling two of the last four winners at 14/1 & 8/1 winners) is looking for his seventh gold medallist in the contest during the last twenty years.  Mark has declared two outsiders from the ‘superior’ section of the weights, namely MORNING SUIT and MONTICELLO.  The only soft ground winner in the field is GOOD OMEN, whereby Jamie Spencer’s mount has to be included in my Placepot mix, arguably alongside HOLD SWAY.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last fifteen renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting.  11 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of the 'Lillie Langtry', with vintage representatives at even money to extend the good run before form (and potential non-runners) is taken into consideration.  Both of the soft ground winners in the line-up look too big given their 14/1 quotes this morning, namely DAWN HORIZONS and HARLEQUEEN.  The latter named Mick Channon filly comes back after a long lay off, whereby DAWN HORIZONS is marginally preferred of the pair, especially with William Haggas having been quite selective regarding his runners over the first few days, even before the rainwater starting to stream down Trundle Hill yesterday afternoon.  ENDLESS TIME completes my trio against the remaining nine fillies.

Favourite factor: Five of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) via the last thirteen renewals.

Record of the course winners in the ’Lillie Langtry’ contest:

1/1—Endless Time (good)

1/1—Harlequeen (soft)

1/1—Melodic Motion (good)

 

3.00: ‘Team Hannon’ has secured six of the last nine renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with ETEFAAQ representing the stable, there is an outside (22/1) chance that the ratio can be extended, though this looks a competitive event and no mistake, despite the fact that just eight runners have been left in the race at the time of writing.  A good to soft winner thus far, Richard’s raider has that edge over some of his rivals at least, the pick of which appear to be NEBO and CARDSHARP.

Favourite factor: Seven winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years.

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3.35: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 18 renewals, whilst John Gosden has secured thee of the last five renewals, with the trainer having offered the green light to his four-year-old raider SO MI DAR this time around.  Three of the remaining six runners in the field are junior representatives and the value for money call from my viewpoint is SOBETSU, these two runners having won under poor conditions in the past.  It is a gamble leaving WINTER out of the equation but something has to give and avoiding popular favourites (successfully) is the route to a potential mega dividend at any meeting, let alone at Glorious Goodwood.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eleven of the last twenty renewals of this Nassau Stakes (including eight of the last fourteen) whilst market leaders have secured sixteen toteplacepot positions during the study period.  The biggest priced winner during the period has been returned at 11/2 if we conveniently forget the 20/1 gold medallist four years ago.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Nassau Stakes’:

1/1—Blond Me (good)

 

4.10: The Hannon team have saddled three of the last eight winners of this two-year-old handicap, with BILLESDON BROOK and TANGLED arguably standing out from Richard's four pronged attack on this occasion.  Soft ground winners POETIC STEPS and JEDI MASTER are others to throw into the equation.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last thirteen years. Seven of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions which is a perfectly reasonable record as far as Nursery events are concerned.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/1—Royal Household (good)

 

4.45: ROULETTE contested a warm maiden at Newmarket and Michael Bell’s filly did well to be beaten less than three lengths on her first day at school.  She could be a tough nut for MAGICAL to crack but that said, Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo was no less impressive when only finding one too good for her at the first time of asking.  Providing the ground does not resemble a quagmire by the time the Placepot finale is contested, this pair should dominate.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last twenty years.  13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

There is no relevance to the number of horses trainers have declared at Goodwood today because of ground conditions.  Several have already been withdrawn ahead of many more I’ll wager.

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Epsom: £92.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Ffos Las: £40.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Nottingham: £16.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £58.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday July 27

MUSSELBURGH - JULY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £869.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 9 (Love To Rock), 6 (Joyful Star) & 1 (Adventureman)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Footsteps Forever) & 2 (Dontgiveuponbob)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Paddy Power), 1 (Royal Brace) & 4 (Rock Of America)

Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Question Of Faith) & 4 (Traditional Dancer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Sunnua), 8 (Hamster Jam) & 4 (Donnelly’s Rainbow)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Sebastian’s Wish) & 1 (Dubawi Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Musselburgh - five year corresponding study:

35 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £591.82

Highest dividend: £1747.00 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £76.60 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Iain Jardine (8/1, 11/2 & 4/1) - 3 runners: Kerry Icon (2.15), Traditional Dancer (3.45) & Stoneham (4.45)

3 winners--Mark Johnston (9/2, 15/8 & 7/4*) - 2 runners: Forever Footsteps (2.45) & Hamster Jam (4.15)

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: There is some overnight money for JOYFUL STAR emerging in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  You might do well to obtain the trade press quote of 10/1 this morning about Graham Lee’s mount, with connections possibly having most to fear from course winner AVENTUREMAN and LOVE TO ROCK whose trainer (Adrian Paul Keatley) saddled a (16/1) winner at Ayr on the opposite coastline in Scotland yesterday.  Adrian boasts a 25% percent record via 15 winners at Ayr during the last five years though interestingly, this is his first runner at Musselburgh in all of that time.

Favourite factor:  The opening race is a new event on the Musselburgh card

Course winners in the opening event:

1/6—Adventureman (good)

2/13—Nelson’s Bay (good to firm & soft)

 

2.45: Keith Burke seems to be saddling more winners down south these days whereby FOOTSTEPS FOREVER and DONTGIVEUPONBOB are preferred to Myboyhenry on this occasion.  The latter named raider made his debut two months ago now which also poses a question, whereas the first named pair are battle hardened and ready to dual for the main prize from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Just one of the two favourites has finished in the frame to date (no winners).

 

3.15: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won four of the five contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the race.  The vintage stats suggest that PADDY POWER cannot be left out of the equation in a race in which many of the entries meet each other on a regular basis which makes this look like a ‘greyhound’ event.  Pearl Acclaim has contested 34 assignments since last tasting success, whereby ROYAL BRAVE and ROCK OF AMERICA are the main threats to the selection according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include one winner.

Course winners in the third race:

2/7—Royal Brave (2 x good to firm)

5/17—Silvanus (2 x good & 3 x good to firm)

2/15—Economic Crisis (2 x good to firm)

1/6—Pearl Acclaim (good to firm)

 

3.45: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the five contests when represented. That said, vintage representative are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  Spokesperson won this event two years ago but has only finished in front of just two of her 57 rivals since that success!  Others are preferred accordingly, with QUESTION OF FAITH and TRADITIONAL DANCER jumping off the page and I fully expect this pair to lock horns at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor:  Three of the seven market leaders (via five contests) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Cosmic Tigress (good to firm)

2/18—Jonny Delta (good & good to firm)

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1/2—Spokesperson (good)

 

4.15: All seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 to date.  Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats accordingly which leaves ten horses to assess, the pick of which might prove to be SUNNUA, HAMSTER JAM and DONNELLY’S RAINBOW from a value for money perspective at least.  It will interesting to see if overnight support for SUNNUA continues into the mainstream investment period.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Fine Example (good to firm)

4/18—Ralphy Boy (3 x good & good to firm)

2/18—Cyflymder (good & good to firm)

 

4.45: DUBAWI FIFTY represents Karen McLintocks as the popular trainer seeks to break her bad run at Musselbugh, her last ten raiders having been beaten in Edinburgh during the last five years.  Layers look frightened of laying Graham Lee’s mount beyond the 3/1 mark which makes for interesting reading.  That said, SEBASTIAN’S WISH is on the crest of a wave right now and looks to be the horse to beat.  His 2/3 record at the course under these type of conditions suggests that the ratio will be improved upon this afternoon, unless Karen’s raider is cherry ripe for the battle after a long break from the track.

Favourite factor:  All five favourites have been beaten thus far with three Placepot positions secured to date.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Sebastian’s Wish (2 x good to firm)

2/7—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)

2/6—Stoneham (2 x good)

2/14—Jan Smuts (good & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Keith Dalgleish (5/46 – loss of 25 points)

4—Jim Goldie (2/21 – loss of 13 points)

3—Rebecca Bastiman (3/10 – Profit of 6 points)

3—Richard Fahey (5/27 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Iain Jardine (1/16 – loss of 13 points)

3—David O’Meara (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Fred Watson (0/1)

2—Karl Burke (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—David C Griffiths (1/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mark Johnston (0/1)

2—Adrian Paul Keatley (No previous runners)

2—Karen McLintock (0/1)

2—Linda Perratt (0/7)

2—John David Riches (No previous runners)

2—Wilf Storey (0/4)

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £9.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Nottingham: £139.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 17

WINDSOR - JULY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £82.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Russian Regard), 14 (Epsom Secret), 3 (Secret Soul) & 15 (Neptune Star)

Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Airshow), 6 (Awesometank) & 3 (Expecting)

Leg 3 (6.50): 7 (Zyzzyva) & 2 (Expelled)

Leg 4 (7.20): 7 (Super Julius) & 4 (Dark Shot)

Leg 5 (7.50): 2 (Blushing Rose) & 4 (Canberra Cliffs)

Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Hollywood Road), 2 (Celebration Day) & 8 (Ogbourne Downs)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.50: Whilst stall ten (of fifteen in total) is not an ideal draw at Windsor on fast ground, this is not a sprint race whereby Jonathan Portman’s Intense Focus gelding RUSSIAN REGARD is offered up as a sporting option with a seven pound claimer in the plate who has already ridden three winners for the relevant trainer.  Most firms (except PP) have swerved too much of an each way liability about EPSOM SECRET (11/2 thereabouts), whilst SECRET SOUL will be a popular raider from Ralph Becket’s yard with the trainer turning out quite a few winners of late.  Mick Easterby sneaks one in at the bottom of the weights, whereby it would come as no surprise to witness his three-year-old raider NEPTUNE STAR figuring prominently at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/9—Megalala (soft)

 

6.20: Each way money has been coming in for AIRSHOW with none of the leading bookmakers willing to offer a fraction over the 5/1 (bet to nothing) win and place option for Rod Millman’s representative.  Rod’s Showcasing gelding is looking to go one better for connections after two recent silver medals efforts, with AWESOMETANK and EXPECTING fairly obvious dangers representing the powerful years of William Haggas and Charlie Hills respectively.  Trap one gives Adam Kirby the chance to kick from the gate aboard AIRSHOW and if the two main rivals offer too much of an easy lead out front, AIRSHOW could score without seeing another rival.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

6.50: Was it the seven pound penalty that stopped RUNNING CLOUD in his tracks last week when tackling his first turf assignment, or perhaps the easy ground at Salisbury that brought about his downfall?  Either way, the concession of seven pounds to ZYZZYVA (trap one) could prove too much of an ask, whilst EXPELLED is another newcomer to take seriously, especially as at the time of writing, James Fanshawe’s Exceed And Excel colt was not drifting in the market, which can be the case the yard’s unraced juveniles.  Stall two gives Daniel Muscutt’s mount a chance if good enough at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders (5/2-8/11-4/9) have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

7.20: I would not take 6/4 about DARK SHOT on ground which will be plenty fast enough for Andrew Balding consistent raider though that said, it’s impossible to leave the four-year-old out of the Placepot mix.  Eve Johnson Houghton’s progressive junior raider SUPER JULIUS is feared most with a three pound rise for a recent Brighton win hardly disturbing the sleep patterns of connections.  The only scenario which could stop such people from sleeping well tonight could be attributed to continued celebrations as the Bated Breath raider seeks a hat trick on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This Class 3 sprint series event is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Spring Loaded (good)

1/1—Stepper Point (good to firm)

1/4—Dark Shot (soft)

1/4—Musical Comedy (good to soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds have claimed fourteen victories during the last nineteen years, albeit three of those vintage representatives were involved in two dead heat scenarios during the study period.  Seven junior representatives are involved on this occasion, with BLUSHING ROSE and CANBERRA CLIFFS standing out from the crowd at first light this morning.  It’s about time (in all honesty) that Sir Michael Stoute’s raiders starting showing consistent form and with a 35/1 double under his belt from Saturday, Michael (BLUSHING ROSE) aims at building on five winners during the last eight days.  Lesser trainers would be happy with that type of ratio, though Michael has set standards in the past that few could match and plenty of gold medallists before Glorious Goodwood would be welcomed a few weeks before we all head south for five wonderful days of sport.

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Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won, whilst 13 of the 23 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—High On Love (good to firm)

1/1—Sayem (good to soft)

 

8.20: CELEBRATION DAY and OGBOURNE DOWNS are two each way options to consider against HOLLYWOOD ROAD in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Don Cantillon (HOLLYWOOD ROAD) boasts definite claims of a double in the final two contests, having saddled Canberra Cliffs in the penultimate race on the card.  Don’s only Windsor runner at Windsor this season won at 9/2 and sure enough, ‘HR’ was the horse in question when scoring under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourites favourite found one too good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Hollywood Road (good to firm)

2/6—Ogbourne Downs (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/18 – loss of 10 points)

3—Andrew Balding (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—Charlie Hills (2/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Don Cantillon (1/1 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Robert Eddery (0/6)

2—Ron Harris (1/7 – Profit of 19 points)

2—Richard Hughes (3/28 – loss of 8 points)

2—Dean Ivory (1/23 – loss of 12 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/2)

2—Brendan Powell (1/13 – level profit/loss on the season)

2—William Muir (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £804.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: This is a new meeting

Wolverhampton: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday June 22

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last six years:

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £595.85

39 favourites - 12 winners - 10 placed - 17 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (McErin), 14 (Santry) & 8 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (3.05): 9 (Mirage Dancer), 16 (Tamleek) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 3 (3.40): 8 (Mori) & 1 (Alluringly)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Order Of St George) & 13 (Simple Verse)

Leg 5 (5.00): 10 (Hyde Park), 16 (City Of Joy), 20 (Colibri) & 5 (Executive Force)

Leg 6 (5.35): 2 (Sofia’s Rock), 5 (Master Singer), 13 (Shymkent) & 15 (Mister Manduro)

Suggested stake: 576 bets to 10p stakes (Thursday’s card has the potential of producing a huge dividend)

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.30: March and April foals have ruled this particular juvenile event in recent times whereby my enthusiasm regarding the chance of MCERIN (drawn 10/18) has grown overnight, particularly as he is Wesley Ward’s only runner on the day.  Course and distance winner FROZEN ANGEL would have been offered an each way shout, though trap three does Tom Dascombe’s raider no favours at all from what we witnessed yesterday when stable companion Formidable Kitt ran well for a long way on the ‘wrong side’ of the straight course.  The same comment applies to NINE BELOW ZERO (4), though the impressive York winner SANTRY looks to have been drawn a better hand in stall 16.  Clive Cox has a chance of following up yesterday’s impressive winner (Heartache) with KODITIME (18).  In thankfully a more open juvenile contest to assess, CARDSHARP (15) cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 21 favourites during the last 19 years claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 10 of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (statistics include four winners and four market leaders which finished second).

Record of course winners in the Norfolk Stakes:

1/1—Frozen Angel (good to firm)

 

3.05: Although favourites have a decent win record in this event (see stats below) two of the last eleven winners have scored at 33/1 & 20/1, facts which should keep us ‘on our toes’.  Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last six renewals is which the yard has been represented, with MIRAGE DANCER expected to be one Michael’s likelier winners at the royal meeting this week.  An impressive winner on debut at Doncaster last year, MIRAGE DANCER ran well enough at Chester to suggest that the Frankel colt has a decent future.  Connections might have most to fear from Saeed Bin Suroor’s pair TAMLEEK and BENBATI.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via seventeen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar one--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last six renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and with the lone successful English handler (Lady Cecil) having retired, Aidan O'Brien (ALLURINGLY) might fancy his chances of landing his third victory in the race though the first of those success was not registered until 2014.  Aidan’s filly has shown an admirable consistent streak and as O’Brien’s only entry, the Fastnet Rock filly should figure prominently again.  MORI might stand in her way from a win perspective however with Sir Michael Stoute’s hat trick seeker due to be partnered by Pat Smullen.  I have repeatedly declared my views via this column that Pat remains one of the most underrated pilots in all of my fifty odd years of enjoying the sport.  I’m hoping that the partnership snare gold again this afternoon.  HERTFORD DANCER might reward each way investors if that is the way you want to play the race.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1. Fifteen of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the 'Ribblesdale':

1/1—Mori (good to firm)

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last eleven winners of the Gold Cup whilst on one of the other four occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, notwithstanding another silver medallist two years ago.  Aidan saddles last year’s winner ORDER OF ST GEORGE this time around with obvious claims, the trainer stating yesterday that he seems to be spot on to retain his title, chiefly at the expense of BIG ORANGE and SIMPLE VERSE.  These findings are not particularly orinigal I know, but this is a race which is high on numbers but especially short of potential winners.  That said, there will be worse 16/1 chances on the card than SWEET SELECTION I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last twenty years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

1/3—Big Orange (good)

1/2—Order Of St George (soft)

1/2—Quest For More (good)

1/5--Skeikhzayedroud (good)

2/5—Trip To Paris (good & good to firm)

1/3—Simple Verse (good to soft)

1/1—Sweet Selection (good to firm)

 

5.00: 12 of the last 13 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-10 or more, statistics which eliminates four of the field if you trust the weight trend.  The first thing to say is that no course winners are involved which is something of a surprise, whilst I will obviously major on the draw here following the ‘success’ of my findings in the Royal Hunt Cup yesterday.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a ‘short list’ of HYDE PARK, CITY OF JOY and COLIBRI.  For insurance purposes (particularly for those of you perming forecast selections together etc), I’ll add EXECUTIVE FORCE and SON OF THE STARS to the mix.  That all said, there remains a slight risk of the odd thunderstorm in the Ascot area so as ever, be watchful and act accordingly, possibly replacing some of those offered with lower drawn horses.

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Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 20 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  Nine of the twenty four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 6 wins & 12 places – Higher: 4 wins & 18 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday whereby the same advice applies.

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests (five renewals going back further in time) with the trainer holding just the three cards in his hand this time.  SOFIA’S ROCK looks to be the trump card this time around ahead of MISTER MANDURO.  Others of interest down towards the bottom of the handicap include MASTER SINGER, SHYMKENT and ATTY PERSSE, especially as 13 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less.  SOFIA’S ROCK sits two pounds above the ‘superior’ sector of the weights, though last year’s winner carried the same burden to winning effect.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 17 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Royal Ascot card on Thursday followed by their ratios this week at the meeting:

8 runners—John Gosden (0/12)

8—Mark Johnston (0/6)

7—Aidan O’Brien (1/15)

6—Charlie Appleby (1/8)

5—Richard Hannon (1/9)

5—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/4)

4—Ralph Beckett (0/2)

4—David O’Meara (0/1)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/1)

3—Roger Charlton (0/2)

3—William Haggas (0/7)

3—Charlie Hills (0/7)

3—David Simcock 0/1)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/5)

3—Roger Varian (0/5)

108 runners in total

 

General overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Chelmsford: £312.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Ffos Las (NH): £261.60 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

Lingfield (A/W): £151.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Ripon: £40.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)