Ffos Las took a fair amount of stick after the Betway Read more
More LIVE C4 action this weekend as the cameras head to Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las – As normal we've we've got all the big race trends and stats for you.
1.50 - Betfred "Goals Galore" Handicap Chase Cl2 2m CH4
8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
8/8 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
7/8 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/8 – Aged 9 or younger
7/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/8 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Carried 10-10 or less in weight
4/8 – Aged 7 years-old
4/8 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/8 – French bred
4/8 – From outside the top 4 in the betting
4/8 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/8 – Went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
3/8 – Won their last race
3/8 – Raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
2/8 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Hendserson
2/8 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
1/8 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 renewals is 6/1
Paul Nicholls is 30% with his chasers here
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his chasers here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 36 with his chasers here
David Pipe is only 1 from 1 with his chasers here
Jonjo O’Neill is just 2 from 22 with his chasers here
Barry Geraghty has a 28% record riding over fences here
2.25 - Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y CH4
11/11 – Won no more than 3 times over fences previously
11/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/11 – Favourites
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/11 – Aged 7 years-old
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/11 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
3/11 – Raced over fences at Sandown previoulsy
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/4
Paul Nicholls is 30% with his chasers here
Philip Hobbs is just 3 from 36 with his chasers here
Nigel Twiston-Davies is 0 from 23 with his chasers here
3.00 - Betfred Mobile And Levy Board Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f CH4
9/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/9 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/9 – Went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
8/9 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
8/9 – Won only 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/9 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/9 – Officially rated 135 or lower
7/9 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
7/9 – Returned 13/2 or less
6/9 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
5/9 – Favourites placed
4/9 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Favourites
4/9 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/9 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
3/9 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/10 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/10 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/10 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 6/1
Charlie Longsdon has a 25% record with his hurdlers here
Lucy Wadham has a 20% record with her hurdlers here
Neil King has a 20% record with his hurdlers here
Emma Lavelle has a 20% record with her hurdlers here
3.35 - Betfred Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y CH4
11/11 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
10/11 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/11 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/11 – Rated 136 or lower
8/11 – Aged 9 or younger
7/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
7/11 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Placed in their last race
6/11 – Ran at Sandown before (3 won)
6/11 – Favourites placed in the top 4
5/11 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (2) last time out
5/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/11 – French-bred
4/11 – Irish-bred
3/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
RELAX won this race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his chasers here
Venetia Williams is just 3 from 39 with her chasers here
David Pipe is just 4 from 50 with his chasers here
Oliver Sherwood is just 1 from 24 with his chasers here
Richard Johnson has a 21% record riding over fences here
Ffos Las (C4/ATR)
2.05 - Betway Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) Cl2 2m4f CH4
Normally staged at Chepstow the race was terminated in 2002, but brought back to life by Ffos Las racecourse in 2010 – however, there was no race in 2010, Oscar Whisky won a poor renewal in 2011, while the 2012 race was abandoned.
Only 2 previous runnings
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 37% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sophie Leech has a 35% record with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 38% record at the track
2.40 - Betway West Wales National (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m4f CH4
Just 2 previous running
Venetia Williams won the race 12 months ago – TARRACO & GORGEHOUS LLIEGE
Venetia Williams has a 36% record with her chasers here
Rebecca Curtis has a 23% record with her chasers here
Alan King is 2 from 7 with her chasers here
Jamie Moore has a 21% record when riding over fences here
3.20 - totepool Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4
9/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Never raced over fences at Wetherby previously
7/10 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
7/10 – Won between 1-2 times over fences previously
7/10 – Won their last race
7/10 – Aged 7 years-old
7/10 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/10 – Irish bred
4/10 –Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners, but all finished 6th or better)
2/10 – Trained by Ian Williams
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 3/1
Brian Ellison has a 26% record with his chasers at the track
David Pipe has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Micky Hammond is just 2 from 39 with his chasers at the track
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Some Recent Quotes..................
"Had more of a break since his last run and comes here today fresh and well. Testing ground conditions but GORES ISLAND should run well"
Gary Moore 29/01/15 1st 7/1
"Seek The Fair Land: Has had a break, but also been working well during that time. Only 8 runners so top three claims and was a good old servant last year for us - never really running a bad race. 7f trip ideal and won off higher in the past. William Carson rides, he's been on his back before and gets on well with him."
Lee Carter 28/01/15 2nd 25/1
Racing at Ffos Las today faces a clash with a home Wales Rugby Union Six Nations tie for the second time this season. The attendance will be a major factor in the course deciding whether to seek to change the date of its February card, featuring the revived Welsh Champion Hurdle and the West Wales National, for next season. Read more
Charlie Longsdon has regularly sent horses from his Chipping Norton yard to race at Ffos Las, and will continue to do so. But when there is winter ground there, as there was on Sunday, he will think at least three times before sending the horsebox out. Read more
Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby provide the LIVE C4 action this Saturday – Andy Newton’s got all the races covered from a trends angle..... Read more
Mal Boyle's daily racing preview covers the action planned for Ascot, Ffos Las, Haydock and Wolverhampton today, it's...
General stats: Nicky Henderson targets Ascot meetings to fantastic effect, especially in the hurdle sector.
Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.30: Favourites have won all four renewals to date, with Nicky Henderson potentially coming to the gig on a hat trick. Nicky held two options at the time of writing.
Two mile three handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last five contests. I highlighted the (previous) fact twelve months ago (3/4 at the time) and one of just two vintage representatives on the day scored at 20/1. Just five of this year’s twenty eight potential runners were seven-year-olds at the time of writing.
Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds came into last year’s race on a four-timer, though the lone vintage representative finished out of the money at 6/1. Hopefully the race will revert to type this time around if more vintage raiders are entered at the final stage.
General stats: Anthony Honeyball held six options for the meeting earlier in the week, the trainer boasting outstanding figures of 5/11, statistics which have produced seven points of level stake profits at Ffos Las.
General stats: Donald McCain has saddled at least three times the number of winners than any other potentially represented trainer over the course of the two-day meeting.
General stats: Mary Frith was entered in two races at Wolverhampton on Friday night, William Knight’s only potential runner at Dunstall Park towards the end of the week. William’s 23% strike rate via eleven winners is far better than most trainers achieve in the ‘Black Country’.
West Wales can’t have seen too many records in National Hunt racing, but Tony McCoy has set plenty of records during his career. The two came together yesterday, as McCoy became the first jockey to notch up 50 successes at Ffos Las racecourse. Read more
Stat of the Day, 11th November 2012
Well, no respite for either SotD's cold spell or my current bout of manflu from yesterday's selection. Dorcas Lane was well backed from our 9/1 price into 5/1 at the off, but that's as good as it got. She never got involved in the race and duly trooped home in 9th position with just 3 others behind her. Disappointing was the word I diplomatically selected on seeing a re-run after I got home from seeing my football team fail abjectly in the art of defending yet again!
We're due a winner for sure and to that end, we're off to Wales for a Class 3 Beginners Chase over 2 miles and 3.5 furlongs on ground expected to be Soft, but better in places. The race in question is a reasonably competitive-looking 13 runner event, the...
From an admittedly fairly small sample size, Anthony Honeyball is our go-to man at Ffos Las. This friend of Geegeez has had excellent results at the Welsh track since sending his first runner there back in December 2010. Anthony has sent just 11 horses to the track in total, but the return of 5 winners and one runner-up explains why we look for his reappearance here.
This 45% strike rate has brought in a very healthy level stakes profit of some 18 pts (164%) and if we narrow his runners down even further to chasers alone (as per today's race), the record is quite simply four winners from four for 21pts profit: outstanding stuff.
A quick look at the declarations for today shows that Mr Honeyball has just the one chaser out today in the shape of four-year-old filly Jackies Solitaire, who had some decent efforts last season over hurdles around this time of year and looks to have a decent chance at bottom weight, helped even further by the jockey's 3lb claim.
As is often the case, that jockey is the very promising and talented Miss Rachael Green who has been on board for 2 winners and a place in seven attempt for Anthony Honeyball at this track. She has only ridden one chaser here for the trainer, steering Victors Serenade to a comfortable 11-length victory back in March.
Having checked the markets at 8.30am, 4/1 BOG was available with bet365, so the play for me is a straightforward 1pt win bet on Jackies Solitaire at 4/1 BOG, but you can always...
PS Although Anthony Honeyball's chasers have performed better than his hurdlers here at Ffos Las, it would be folly to completely dismiss the chances of him saddling a winner in the 3.05 , where Velator holds claims at odds of 7/2 or better.
It's changeover time here at SotD, as Matt's stint comes to an end and I'll be taking the chair for a while. As is my usual MO, I shall be trying to fly beneath the radar today and avoid the bright lights and massive media presence at York by keeping SotD in South Wales for a Class 2, 6 furlong Handicap on ground that is expected to be Soft (but Good to Soft in places). We've picked ourselves an 11-runner race today, which opens up the possibilities of an E/W bet too in the...
As soon as we look at the card for this race, we see that Prodigality is a clear favourite at around even money, but I think regardless of whether he wins or not, he offers little value at that price. The price of the other runners, however, further opens the door for our E/W aspirations.
This brings us to trainer Daniel Loughnane, whose record at Ffos Las is very promising indeed with 3 winners and a further 6 places from just 17 runners over the last couple of years. A place strike rate of almost 53% plays right into our plan for the E/W bet. As is often the case here at SotD, Daniel has just one runner at Ffos Las today: First In Command: a very useful, if not top-level sort.
First In Command's recent formline is excellent, he's having a very good season indeed. He has competed on 10 occasions since 16th February and his results from that day read 2111223212, a remarkable level of consistency as an E/W chance.
That recent form allied with Daniel Loughnane's place record at the track is enough for me to be interested in First In Command as an E/W option at double-digit prices. A quick scan of the early market (9.40am) shows that our selection is currently available at 14/1 with both SportingBet & StanJames (non-BOG) and widely available at 12/1 BOG, but you should always...
Today is, of course, Day 2 at York, but there's plenty of action away from the Knavesmire today, with meetings planned for Bath, Folkestone, Cartmel and Ffos Las. Here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts for today.
General stats: Charlie Hills has saddled two winners from just nine opportunities since taking over the reigns towards the back-end of last year. Marcus Tregoning has runners on Thursday’s card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting a 3/11 ratio in recent times which has produced an LSP figure of eight points.
Premier Yearling Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Five of the last nine favourites have prevailed.
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):
2011: 19-11-2 (20 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-10-5 (18 ran-good)
2009: 13-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race contested at Newmarket--not applicable
2007: 2-11-6 (20 ran-good)
2006: 11-9-16 (19 ran-soft)
2005: 10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)
2004: 12-17-19 (22 ran-good)
2003: 5-15-13 (22 ran-good)
2002: 17-18-21 (21 ran-good)
2001: 22-20-17(22 ran-good to firm)
2000: 4-10-3 (22 ran-good)
1999: 6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
1998: 11-4-20 (22 ran-good)
Juvenile Lowther Stakes due to be contested at 2.30: Twelve of the last fifteen renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites. Eight of the market leaders during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Class 2 all aged handicap over one mile scheduled for 3.05: Three and four-year-olds have claimed the last ten renewals between them, with the older horses leading 6-4 during the period. Favourites have a fair record in this event, given the nature of the contest. Ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years, statistics which include three winners.
Yorkshire Oaks scheduled for 3.40: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, statistics which include four of the last six contests. Eight favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, though just two of the other seven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.
Galtres Stakes scheduled for 4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, statistics which include eight of the last eleven. Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period. Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last fourteen renewals.
Seven furlong handicap for fillies scheduled for 4.50: David Barron’s Shesastar won the inaugural race as the 5/1 favourite twelve months ago. The defending champion was David’s only potential runner in the race earlier in the week. Richard Fahey saddled the second and third horses last year and Honeymead was Richard’s only option at the time of writing.
General stats: Marcus Tregoning boasts a ratio of 10/35 at Bath during the last five years which is backed up by a (minimal) level stake profit, black figures nonetheless.
General stats: Frankie Dettori rides this track as well as any other jockey as his recent 6/20 statistics at the course confirms. Sir Michael Stoute’s 39% record at Folkestone suggests that the trainer will be appealing against the imminent closure of Kent’s only racecourse.
General stats: Floral Patches (scheduled to contest the mares maiden hurdle event which is set for 7.30) is Brian Ellison’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four of his last seven runners at the venue to winning effect.
General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 40% record is a phenomenal ratio given his twenty winners at the venue which only opened its doors to the public three years ago. Other trainers to have made it pay in recent times are Anthony Honeyball (5/11) and Dr Richard Newland (4/9). All three trainers held options for the meeting earlier in the week.
Shostakovich was a horse trained by Sylvester Kirk. Over the two seasons he spent in the yard he was kept busy, running 13 times as a two year old in 2010, and 16 times the following year. Read more
It's Thursday and Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood and I'm just here to bring you a reminder of Mal Boyle's thought for the day's action. He's also got some information on the meetings at Epsom, Ffos Las, Nottingham and Stratford on what promises to be yet another enthralling day in our beloved sport.
General stats: Sir Michael Stoute secured a 24/1 double on the card on the Thursday of the meeting last year.
Ten furlong three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.15: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst Mark Johnston is looking for his fifth winner in the race in the last fourteen years. John Gosden has won three of the last nine contests, whilst favourites have won six of the last eleven renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. Ten of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.
‘Richmond Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.45: Richard Hannon has secured the last four renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with four penultimate stage entries, Richard was obviously intent on saddling another winner. Five winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.
‘Goodwood Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have won six of the last eight contests, whilst nine of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Fourteen furlong Group 3 ‘Lillie Langtry’ event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer whilst three of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) via nine renewals.
Seven furlong juvenile (‘New Ham‘) event scheduled for 4.20: Golden Causeway is my speculative juvenile to look out for in the two-year-old division at ‘Glorious‘ Goodwood this year. I made the point twelve months ago that Amber Silk could be backed at an each way price and the Barry Hills raider finished second at 20/1. Barry had won a few renewals shortly before his retirement and it’s worth noting that Charlie Hills has, without question, waited for this event to saddle his Giant’s Causeway filly. Charlie named the January foal as one to watch in a stable tour earlier in the year. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years. Nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Class 2 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.55: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more to victory. No favourite has prevailed during the study period (fourteen years), whilst seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Eleven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 5.25: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, four of the winners having been returned at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.
General stats: Medicoe (scheduled to run in the 6.55 juvenile event) holds three entries this week but if lining up here, Sir Mark Prescott’s raider will be hoping to improve the 3/8 tally for the stable in two-year-old event at Epsom in recent years. Mark’s 42% strike rate across the board makes for great reading, though Medicoe is Mark’s only potential runner on the card.
General stats: Strategic Heights has been declared for the scheduled 8.50 event by trainer Liam McAteer who has saddled three of his six runners at the venue to winning effect.
General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (37% strike rate) and Michael Appleby (36%) potentially head the represented trainers at Nottingham on Wednesday.
General stats: Kielan Woods is already booked aboard Gougane (4.30), the jockey having ridden five of his eleven mounts to winning effect at Stratford! A level stake profit of thirty-three points adds icing on the cake.
We've got all the key trends and stats ahead of the LIVE races at Ascot, Newmarket & Market Rasen this Saturday..... Read more
This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more