Andy Newton’s got six more trainers to look out for this week, plus a high-profile handler that needs a change of luck.... Read more
Today's action comes from Fontwell, Kempton, Newmarket and Worcester on...
General stats: Michael Blake only had three potential runners-up until Friday at the time of writing, one of which was Ellviss at Fontwell where the trainer boasts a strike rate of 27% (3/11) thus far. The course was waterlogged as I write this column, let’s hope for some better news by the time you read this article.
Two and three-quarter mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.50: All four winners have carried weights of 11-7 or less to victory.
General stats: Ralph Beckett’s figures are very good given the number of runners he has saddled at Kempton during the last five years. Ralph’s fifty one winners have been gained via a 21% strike rate which is backed by an LSP figure of sixty-five points.
General stats: Aside from one race on the card, all the events are for juveniles at Newmarket on Wednesday. Statistics for non handicap races in the two-year old sector as far as favourites are concerned stands at 39% (70/178), whilst four market leaders have won in the Nursery (handicap) divisions via fifteen contests (27%). Margins of level stake profits and losses in both sectors is fractional.
3.05: Five favourites have won during the last decade whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was an 8/1 chance. Nine of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame (exact science).
3.40 & 4.10 (Two divisions): John Gosden has saddled four of the last eight winners of this event and John held entries in both heats this year at the time of writing. Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed.
General stats: Three of the last six runners of Anthony Honeyball have won and with just one entry this week at Worcester, Boss’s Destination would have to be of interest if given the green light to run. Anthony’s 34% strike rate at the venue stands out from the crowd, especially backed up by an LSP figure of seventy-four points.
Another busy day of racing and one that looks tough to find winners. Fortunately we've got the benefit of mal Boyle's expert insight on the action from Ascot, Fontwell, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton on...
General stats: Favourites in three-year-old events at Ascot have a good record in general terms. Handicap market leaders have one of the best strike rates (31%) in the country, results which have yielded over eighteen points of level stake profits. Non handicap race market leaders boast a S/R of 38% which has also produced a small LSP figure during the last five years.
‘Cornwallis’ event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites have won two of the last eleven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 20/1 last year.
‘Cumberland Lodge’ scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed six of the last seven available toteplacepot positions. Favourites have secured seven of the last twelve contests.
Six furlong Group 3 event scheduled for 3.05: All four winners have carried 9-1 to victory whilst we await the first successful market leader, the gold medallists having been returned at 16/1--16/1--11/1--6/1 thus far.
Listed ‘October Stakes’ scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period being last year‘s 16/1 gold medallist.
General stats: David Pipe saddled an 11/1 double on the card last year though those were David’s only winners on the Saturday fixture (of the two days) during the last five years. That said, no trainer has saddled three winners during the study period! 39 favourites: 13 winners (24.0%)--10 placed--16 unplaced. Stats include three odds on favourites: 1 winner (33.3%)--2 unplaced. The average winning price (35 winners): 4/1. 25 winners sent off in single figures (9/1 or less): 71.4%--10 winners in double figures: 28.6%
Two and a half novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals to date, whilst last year’s 6/4 favourite was the first market leader to prevail.
General stats: ‘Champion Elect’ Richard Hughes rode a 90/1 four timer on last year’s corresponding card via three different trainers.
‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 2.15: Although no obvious trends have emerged via four renewals, I thought you might want to take note of the trainer with most entries (Mark Johnston--4) at the penultimate stage. Last year’s winning trainer Mick Channon held two declarations which looked likely types leading up to the contest, namely Ollie Olga and Graphic Guest.
General stats: Brian Meehan’s 4/11 stats at Redcar are worth noting, especially given his five potential runners at the track on Saturday.
‘Straight Mile Championship Final’ scheduled for 2.40: The last six winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more. Six of the last nine winners were returned at double figure prices, whilst Kiwi Bay has won the last two renewals of the contest for trainer Michael Dods who also had Hakuna Matata entered up at the time of writing.
Listed ‘Guisborough Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled three winners in the last eight years and the trainer held three options earlier in the week.
Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last seven winners have been returned in double figures (28/1 winner twelve months ago), whilst the last ten gold medallists were burned with a minimum weight of 8-12
Five furlong mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 5.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven contests to date, whilst market leaders have won five renewals, boasting a level stake profit of twelve and a half points into the bargain.
General stats: The majority of late night revellers probably enjoyed a great night out twelve months ago with the biggest priced winner emerging at just 9/1 via an eight race card, results which included four successful favourites. Six of the eight winners were sent off at 7/2 or less.
Stat of the Day, 6th October 2012
It was another blank day of us yesterday, as Sally's Swansong was very disappointing. She never got involved at all and delivered a pretty tame effort if truth be told. Stable mate Ballarina wasn't much better, having faded badly late on, but at least had a run for the money.
And on to today, we're moving back onto the turf for a three and a half mile soft ground slog in West Sussex. Eleven runners are still set to go to post for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle in the...
Trainer Martin Keighley has an excellent record in handicap hurdle races here at Fontwell with 3 winners and 2 places from 9 runs over the last couple of years, returning a level stakes profit of 11pts.
He runs just one handicap hurdler today: Always Bold.
Always Bold was a dual C&D winner on soft ground around this time last year and was only beaten half-a-length by Akbabend over 2m7f here last month, so he's already in decent nick. That race was evidently too short for him and the extra 4 fulronmgs today should suit him better.
This doesn't look to be a race with too much quality and the conditions do seem right for our mount today. he has won three times at today's distance, he has won three times (from just six) on soft ground, he has of course won twice at the track and been placed once: just from 5 attempts. And finally, his best runs have all come when Alain Cawley has been in the saddle, as he is again today.
Always Bold is very likely to be favourite today and I think he will fully justify that tag, but the 7/2 BOG still available at Betfred looks a decent price to me, so I'm in for a 1pt win , but as always I suggest that you...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.35 Fontwell.
The weekend is almost upon us and there's plenty of action planned for today. Here are Mal Boyle's thoughts on the racing scheduled at Ascot, Yarmouth, Fontwell, hexham and Wolverhampton on...
General stats: I have made the point before that because of the competitive nature of racing at Ascot on the level, positive trends are difficult to come by, though Clive Brittain boasts decent profits down the years. Clive’s meagre 7% strike rate means that you have to pick and choose his representatives carefully though, whereby Paul D’Arcy might be the man to flag up this week as his combined strike rate and LSP figures (fourteen and twenty-one respectively) make for half decent reading.
Gordon Carter event scheduled for 4.40: Just one winning favourite recorded via the last ten renewals though nine scorers were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.
General stats: Saaboog is also declared to run in a contest on Yarmouth’s card, should the James Tate inmate miss his potential Southwell assignment on Thursday.
General stats: Paul Nicholls has his runners a little further forward than is often the case at this time of year (three of his last five runners have won at the time of writing), whereby Paul’s 35% strike rate catches the eye in no uncertain terms.
General stats: John Quinn’s 7/19 trainer stats stand out from the crowd whilst Tom Scudamore has put his rare visits to Hexham in the plate to good use bearing in mind Tom’s 4/15 recent record.
General stats: Jeremy Noseda is enjoying a fine run of late season form whereby the trainer might be able to improve impressive figures already in place via his 32% strike rate which is back up by a 25 LSP reading. Simon Dow’s ratio of 5/14 also makes for good reading.
Mal's still away for a few days yet, but I've brought you a quick reminder of his insights on today's racing from Hamilton, Lingfield, Kempton, Fontwell, Hereford and Stratford...
Apologies for the lack of a main meeting on which to offer stats and facts. Every now and then (because of Bank Holiday schedules usually), a day occurs when ‘new meetings’ generally rule the roost whereby no trends are in place….and this is one such occasion. Lingfield ‘ripping up their carpet’ did not help on this occasion!
General stats: William Haggas has saddled five of his twelve runners at Hamilton to winning effect thus far, whilst Jeremy Noseda’s 2/5 ratio is worth noting.
General stats: Derek Haydn Jones boasts 3/7 figures in recent years, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of ten points. However, Roger Charlton record of 7/17 during the last five years makes for even more impressive reading.
General stats: The yellow and blue stars colours of Pearl Bloodstock have been prominent at Kempton in recent years, claiming eleven successes from just twenty-three runners. The stats have helped to achieve a level stake profit of thirty-five points. The other positive factor is that the colours are easy to spot, even in a big field!
General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) and Donald McCain (33%) lead the figures of the potentially represented trainers at Fontwell on Thursday, whilst Renee Robeson’s (2/8) runners might be worth a saver.
General stats: Jim Best will not want this venue to close down, given that the trainer boasts figures of 7/21 (eight points LSP) whilst John Ferguson’s rare visits have paid via 2/4 figures.
General stats: I hope I have alerted you to the training talents of Richard Woolacott in recent weeks and months and this is one of the venues to focus on given Richard’s 2/4 ratio.
Thursday looks a busy day with no less than six meetings on the horizon. I've just brought you a quick recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the scheduled action from Beverley, Chepstow, Newmarket, Salisbury, Fontwell & Stratford. All taken, of course, from Mal's comprehensive Tuesday morning's Well I Declare article.
General stats: Only one of the seven races went the way of a market leader on the Thursday card last year, the other six winners ranging in price between 6/1 and 33/1.
General stats: Punters are due a better day than on this card last year as the winners scored at 28/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-13/2-11/2-11/4* on what was perfect (good) going whereby there were no excuses made on account of the ground. The toteplacepot dividend of £2,421.40 told the story as just two favourites finished in the frame via the opening six races. Sir Mark Prescott and Peter Chapple-Hyam lead the percentage table of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.
General stats: This is the start of a three-day meeting which produced a strike rate of 35.0% of winning favourites (7/20) twelve months ago. Peter Chapple-Hyam (22/1 & 6/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1 & Evens--17/1 double on the final day of the fixture) were the only trainers to saddled two winners. All seven winners on the first day were recorded in single figures, ranging between 8/11 & 9/1.
General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a winner on each day of the meeting twelve months ago, opening the two-day fixture with a successful 15/8 favourite before winning the penultimate race on the Thursday via an 8/1 chance.
General stats: We have been starved on NH action of late whereby I will report the leading trainers (ratios) in August according to my records: 5/11-Tim Vaughan---3/16-Lucinda Russell---2/6-Donald McCain---2/4--Richard Woollacott---2/5--Philip Hobbs
General stats: Thursday was not a fortunate day for the majority of punters twelve months ago because alongside the poor results at Chepstow, all six favourites were beaten at Stratford, with winners going off at 33/1-25/1-8/1-11/2-5/1-7/2. Charlie Longsdon boasts a 34% strike rate at the track, statistics which have produced nearly twenty-two points of level stake profits. Daniel Mark Loughnane has scored with both representatives at the track thus far, securing an LSP figure of twenty-one points. Daniel held two options earlier in the week for this meeting.
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