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Double Dutch, 18th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 18th August 2015

Aaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrggggggggghhhhh!

When you're in a poor run of form/results, the last thing you want is for a horse to get caught virtually on the line, even more so, when they're other half of a double set to payout at 13/1, but that's what happened yesterday.

Algaith was brave/plucky/determined*** (delete as applicable) in making all to hold on for a win by a length and a quarter at Chelmsford, which was fantastic.

Unfortunately for us, Postbag had already failed to hang on at Windsor just twenty minutes earlier, meaning another empty-handed journey home.

Monday's results were as follows:

Postbag : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Bella Lulu : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Algaith : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Maftool : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
652 winning selections from = 28.19%
204 winning bets in 599 days = 34.06%

Stakes: 1197.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +110.70pts (+9.43% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Close yesterday but aiming for a little bit more from...

6.10 Leicester :

My two against the field here share a few similarities in that both trainers and both jockeys have decent records here at this track. Both hail from in form yards and both are making their handicap debuts and both have one win from three or four runs to date. (That saves me typing it all twice!)

First up, we have Godolphin's Fast Enough whose form line shows gradually improving results at 4321 and rounded off with a comfortable 3.25 length success at Brighton 11 days ago. He was eased down towards the finish yet still won easily in a race where the runner-up reappeared last night at Chelmsford to win by 4.5 lengths, making Fast Enough of interest here at odds of up to 3/1 BOG.

On paper, though, Case Key's form (180) looks to be going the other way, but this is one of the reasons why the form line alone shouldn't be used to make selections. Because that doesn't tell you that he won over this course and distance on debut quite easily, before being deemed good enough to compete in a Listed event and then a Group 3 contest! He was obviously well beaten (c. 15 lengths in each), but will have gained vital experience from those outings.

This is a Class 4 Nursery, so quite far down the pecking order from a Group 3 race, as demonstrated five days ago at Lingfield; Stormflower was 3 lengths ahead of Case Key at Goodwood last time out, but has returned to action with a win last Thursday and Case Key is priced at 4/1 BOG to follow suit.

*

8.20 Chelmsford :

Daniel Kubler's horses are going well at the moment, including the 9/4 BOG Trimoulet who runs here under a penalty after scoring at Wolverhampton 8 days ago. That came of the back of a near-17 week break and he managed to pick up his decent form from earlier in the year, taking his 2015 record to 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runs. He has a win and a third from two efforts here, so he "gets" the track well enough and looks set for another decent show.

The big threat is the A/W 100%-er Injun Sands who comes here to defend a 2 from 2 record on the A/W acquired in back to back runs earlier in the "summer" (if you could call it that). Firstly, he won over 1m4f at Lingfield, where he finished strongly to win by a neck over 1m4f (Class 5) despite it being his first run for 306 days and then just three weeks later, he stepped up in both class and trip to win here at Chelmsford over course and distance by a length and a half.

Since then he has run twice more, well beaten on unsuitably soft ground at Ayr, before an excellent run at Haydock next/last time out, where he just failed by a neck to land a 1m6f handicap. A return to the artifical surface would be welcomed and based on that Haydock run, Injun Sands looks to have every chance here at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Fast Enough / Trimoulet @12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Betfair SB, Betfred & SkyBet)
Fast Enough / Injun Sands @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Bet365, Paddy & Stan James)
Case Key / Trimoulet @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Case Key / Injun Sands @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)

Double Dutch, 17th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th August 2015

A non-runner, a placer and two poor efforts was what we got on Saturday on a day that won't linger too long in the memory thankfully.

Going changes, bad weather and non-runners aplenty made a normally difficult day much tougher, but every race still had a winner : we just didn't find them!

In the end it's a toss-up between Withernsea's staying on third place at Newbury and Bonds Gift's withdrawal from the Doncaster race as our highlight, that's how bad it was!

Saturday's results were as follows:

Imaginary World : u/p (8th) at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Bonds Gift : non-runner (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Withernsea : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Mujassam : u/p (7th) at 7/2 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2309 = 28.19%
204 winning bets in 598 days = 34.11%

Stakes: 1195.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +112.70pts (+9.43% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Hoping / needing much better this week, starting with...

7.05 Windsor :

Both jockey Adam Kirby and trainer Roger Varian have been in really good form of late and Roger's horses tend to go well here at Windsor, so this points to a good effort from the 9/4 BOG Bella Lulu who is expected to improve for a step up into handicap company, not that she's run poorly in the past, though!

She only ran once as a 2yo, in an average sort of run, before going back in the shed for 260 days. On her reappearance, she was only beaten by a length and a half and will have needed the run, as shown when winning on her third and final outing at Doncaster a little over 6 weeks ago. She won pretty comfortably by two lengths, with the runner-up winning by 6 lengths last Wednesday.

Postbag is the one I expect to deliver (sorry!) the biggest challenge to the selection. Another lightly raced three year old, who has only run once since winning her maiden at Leicester in April, this 3/1 BOG shot took the move to handicaps in her stride really well at Goodwood almost three months ago.

She encountered "traffic issues" and lost vital ground when having to switch out, yet she ran on well and was beaten into third place by less than a length. I'm not too concerned about her having had a break and she's sure to come on for the handicap experience.

*

7.25 Chelmsford :

This race looks pretty poor on paper with the majority of the runners coming here lacking any decent recent form, but the one that stands out for me is Algaith, who was a good third at Newmarket in a Class 2 handicap just a month ago, beaten by just a length and three quarters. It's possible that after back to back wins on the A/W last winter too much has been asked of this son of Dubawi and today represents his easiest assignment for some while.

After winning that pair of Class 5 A/W runs, he was stepped up in trip for a Listed contest on good to firm ground. Although not entirely disgraced, he was last of 7, almost 15 lengths behind Golden Horn. Two decent runs at Class 2 this season are now followed another drop in class and off bottom weight Algaith looks dangerous at 2/1 BOG.

There are pros and cons about each of his five rivals here, all having something to prove, but I'm going to side with Maftool, despite him appearing to have lost his way after a runner-up finish and then a win in two Group 3 contests last September. This represents not only as major drop in class, but the return to the A/W and a drop in trip should give him every chance here today.

He's clearly not in Class 1 form, but if running to his potential, Maftool should be able to concede weight to his rivals here and still put on a decent performance. Perhaps his handlers see this as the easiest back in, so to speak and if you like his chances, he can be backed at 3/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Bella Lulu / Algaith @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Bella Lulu / Maftool @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Postbag / Algaith @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Postbag / Maftool @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Betway)

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2015

No winner on Saturday to cap another fine week, I'm afraid, but certainly no complaints about the run we got for our money at Newbury either.

Pin Up was sent off as 9/4 favourite, having been well supported from my advised 7/2 bet and I don't think he could have given us much more than he did, ably assisted by jockey Alyson Deniel.

The pair of them looked to have done everything in their power to land the race for us, but on the day, the winner was just too good for them. The presence of Serena Brotherton in the saddle no doubt helped there too.

I wasn't too downhearted really, Pin Up certainly ran his race and despite the loss we still made a handsome profit on the week, a feat I'd like to repeat this week too, starting with Monday's...

5.35 Windsor :

Where Betfair Sportsbook are offering 5/1 BOG about Andrew Balding's 2yr old filly, Dancing Star.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Andrew's record here at Windsor since 2009 is 34 winners from 180 (18.9% SR) for 50.1pts (+27.8% ROI). In maidens, he is 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 4.63pts (+6.81% ROI), whilst his 2 yr olds are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.96pts (+64.2% ROI)

Andrew Balding's 2yo maidens running at odds of 8/1 or shorter here at Windsor are 6/15 (40% SR) for 10.6pts (+70.7% ROI)

David Probert is in the saddle today and he rides the Balding maidens well, with 79 winners from 450 (17.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+40% ROI) profit and will look to improve those figures on Dancing Star who steps up in trip to 6f after showing some promise in defeat here at Windsor last time out.

That run was, in fairness, her debut and after taking a while to get going, was staying on really well in the closing stages, suggesting a longer trip would be better for her, a thought backed up in her breeding.

Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that Andrew Balding is very good at getting more from a horse on its second run, as since 2008, those horses trained by Andrew, whose second run is on the Flat after failing to make the frame and beaten by 2 to 10 lengths last time out is : 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+14.5% ROI).

Of those 103 runners, 2yr olds are 15/69 (21.7% SR) for 39.2pts (+36.9% ROI), whilst those stepping up a furlong are 6/24 (25% SR) for 15.4pts (+64.2% ROI).

His 2yr olds stepping a furllong are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 87.6% and all this hopefully points a good run from Dancing Star.

Betfair are the best price so far, but you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 15th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th August 2015

No joy of any description yesterday, unfortunately!

At Nottingham, both Glastonberry and Effusive were comprehensively beaten by a winner who made all, poured it on and stayed best in tricky conditions, whilst four hours later at Catterick, Our Thomas was really well supported (7/4 from 5/1), but he could only manage to finish as runner-up with Ralph's Beckett's Singular Quest a long way back (last home of five).

Friday's results were as follows:

Glastonberry : u/p (4th) at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Effusive : u/p (5th) at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Our Thomas : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/1)
Singular Quest : u/p (5th) at 5/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2305 = 28.24%
204 winning bets in 597 days = 34.17%

Stakes: 1193.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +114.70pts (+9.61% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last picks of the week...

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.05 Doncaster :

Imaginary World may well have been raised 2lbs for her last outing, but Cam Hardie's 3lb claim more than takes care of that and for a horse that looks to be coming back to some kind of form, a mark effectively 11lbs lower than when she was running and winning at this time last year might prove lenient.

She was only a neck and a half length off the winner when finishing third over this trip at Newcastle last time out, 10 days ago, and with the runner-up of that race, Liberal Angel, winning yesterday afternoon, then a 3/1 BOG bet on Imaginary World might not be the worst decision you make today.

Bonds Gift also trades at around the 3/1 BOG mark and she's interesting here, coming off a break of almost 23 weeks and returning to turf after running well on the Wolverhampton Tapeta, where she finished as runner-up in back to back 7f handicaps.

Those races have both produced quite a few winners and with Geoffrey Oldroyd's yard looking like sparking back to life after a couple of recent winners, Bonds Gift is a decent foil to the main selection in what looks a weak contest.

*

3.10 Newbury :

I know that Withernsea could only manage to finish fifth at York last time out, but he had been hampered in the final furlong and once switched out, he stayed on well.  He's likely to be happier here today, with the recent rain, as both his career wins have the word soft in the official going.

A common theme in his recent outings is that he tends to get caught in traffic and had I been writing this yesterday, I'd probably not have selected him for a 16-runner race, but 7 don't go and he's more likely to be able to avoid trouble on thew wide Newbury track with only 8 rivals to contend with. The softer the better for Withernsea, who is currently a 7/2 BOG shot.

The one he'll need to beat, though, is likely to be Mujassam, who represents an in-form trainer and jockey, who both have excellent records on this track. This lightly raced 3yr old son of Kyllachy won his maiden here at Newbury over 6.5f on soft ground, so the track shouldn't throw up any surprises for him today, nor should the trip at just a half furlong longer than that previous visit to the course.

Today's trip is the same as when completing a rather facile 8 lengths win at Salisbury last time out. Admittedly, this is a stronger race and he's up in weight, but he really could have won by as far as he wanted to that day and the horse that was last home of the eight runners, beaten by almost 17 lengths, Harlequin Striker, was a winner at Ffos Las on Thursday. There's plenty more to come from Mujassam, who can be backed at 100/30 BOG this morning.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Imaginary World / Mujassam @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : betVictor)
Imaginary World / Withernsea @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Paddy)
Bonds Gift / Mujassam @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : SkyBet)
Bonds Gift / Withernsea @ 17.77/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 14th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 14th August 2015

There was no "treble of doubles" to report on from yesterday, after what turned out to be my worst day of punting for some time and certainly the poorest of the month so far.

And whilst a winner and a runner-up doesn't look too bad, it still meant a losing bet. Both our runners in race 1 were well supported and were sent off as 2/1 jt favs, and finished 1st and 3rsd, but the later contest at Lingfield didn't go well at all.

Aljafer was the better of our two runners, but was still comprehensively beaten by five lengths over 7f by a winner who had plenty in hand, whilst Wee Jean was a major disppointment, back in 4th, some 17 lengths off the winner. She looked nothing like a group horse yesterday.

Thursday's results were as follows:

La Superba : WON at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Spirit of Wezda : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Aljafer : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Wee Jean : u/p (4th) at 3/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2301 = 28.29%
204 winning bets in 596 days = 34.23%

Stakes: 1191.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +116.70pts (+9.79% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Looking to get back on track with these...

3.10 Nottingham :

The 7yr old grey mare, Glastonberry has been in fine form of late, beaten by a neck and then by a nose before landing back to back successes, all over 6f before getting beaten last time out over half a furlong shorter on firmer ground at Bath, taking her 5-run sequence to 22112. The return to 6f an slightly slower ground is surely more to her liking here and she can put her experience to good use by landing this at 100/30 BOG (boylesports).

The big danger looks to be the 5/2 BOG fav Effusive who makes only her sixth start today and just her second run of the season. Considered good enough to contest two Group 3 events last term, she returned to the fray at Chester last month after a break of 266 days. Chester isn't the ideal place to make a reappearance in my opinnion, due to the quirky nature of the track and whilst she was fourth of five runners, she wasn't disgraced by any means.

She was, in fact, only beaten by less than three lengths and the three horses ahead of her have all won since. The winner Miidlander has won a £28k Class 2 race, whilst the third placed horse Kassbaan won at Windsor last Sunday with the runner-up Jebediah Shine landing a handicap at Beverley yesterday. Effusive should come on for the run and if the form holds out from Chester and she runs to the promise shown last season, we could have an interesting race on our hands.

*

7.15 Catterick :

As you're probably aware, I do like to back Ralph Beckett's horses, especially when they're his only runner at a track and tonight is the turn of Singular Quest. This horse is still a maiden after 5 attempts, but has knocked on the door on several occasions to the extent that his handciap rating is 76 acquired by consistent performances at Class 4 level, including one run where he was only beaten by a neck at Sandown behind Yorkidding who was third in a Class 2 contest last week.

Ralph is very good at placing his maidens and a lot of thought will have gone into sending Singular Quest here for a drop in both trip and class and I'm inclined to believe that this could well be his day returning to maiden company after four runs in handicaps, so if you like him 9/4 BOG is the best on offer.

Based on hcp form and ratings, he should hold Kellys Finest who is even more exposed and less successful, making me turn towards Our Thomas as my Plan B at what might prove to be a generous 5/1 BOG. His yard are in good nick (4/17 last week) as is jockey David Allan (7/16 in the last week), whilst David is 5/16 here at Catterick this season, which is a positive.

Today is just Our Thomas' second outing and was a modest, but not disastrous third of seven on debut and was 6 lengths behind Decorated Knight who is two from two since that day, having won back to back races at Class 5 and then Class 3 (hcp) level of a mark of 85. If (and it's an if!) he improves for having had the run also also steps up like Decorated Knight has done, then Our Thomas has every chance in an ordinary looking contest.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Effusive / Singular Quest @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Effusive / Our Thomas @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Bet365)
Glastonberry / Singular Quest @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Glastonberry / Our Thomas @ 21.50/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : Bet365 & Betfair SB)

Double Dutch, 13th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th August 2015

Back to back doubles have put a happier complexion upon DD's figures and whilst I'm still making up ground lost over the past few weeks, yesterday's 13.5/12 double was very welcome indeed.

For the record, Faery Song won by a length at Salisbury, despite conceding weight all round and then Burnt Cream also defied top weight to win from the rear at Bath.

In amongst all the excitement, Burnt Cream also became our 650th winning selection.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Faery Song : WON at 15/8 (adv 19/10)
Dark Avenger : u/p (5th) at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Burnt Cream : WON at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Top Cop : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
650 winning selections from 2297 = 28.30%
205 winning bets in 595 days = 34.34%

Stakes: 1189.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +118.70pts (+9.98% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Thursday's hat-trick bid looks like this...

4.35 Beverley :

Mark Johnston's horses go well here at Beverley, particularly those running at a mile to a mile and a half and also those running in Class 4 to 6 contests. Since both of those apply here, the 3/1 BOG Spirit of Wezda is of immediate interest and despite being headed late on and going down by a length at Carlisle just two days ago, he has been running consistently well and this looks an easier task (on paper, at least!) in what seems a fairly mediocre contest...

...one that probably won't take too much winning, which could open the door for La Superba to take the opportunity of finally breaking her duck after 8 defeats. She has finished fourth on her last four starts, but each time she has suggested a win is due once ideal conditions were found. She faded in the closing 2f last time out and now drops back two furlongs.

Cheekpieces are also applied and the quicker ground should suit her far better than the soft ground encountered last time out. It has clearly been a case of trial and error for this one, but I think the Elsworth team are as close as they're going to get with today's conditions and that's possibly why La Superba is the 11/4 BOG favourite here today.

*

6.15 Lingfield :

The Charlie Bishop / Mick Channon partnership is a successful one, particularly here at Lingfield and in Wee Jean, they have a Group horse in fine form. She was beaten by less than a length in Listed Class earlier in the "summer" and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Chester and Newmarket last month off marks of 85 and 90.

She is, of course, up in weight again, but a 4lb rise for a 2 length win at Class 2 doesn't look too bad as she now drops in class to run off a mark still 6lbs lower than that Listed class defeat and there's nothing of that calibre here today. Win or lose, 3/1 BOG (Boylesports) looks generous about Wee Jean.

That's probably because the market also features a surprising favourite in the shape of the 5/2 BOG Aljafer. I'm not saying she's not talented, but despite great consistency (never out of the first four in all 7 starts), she only has one win to her name and is up 3lbs for a defeat by a neck last time out. She was behind Mambo Paradise that day and the latter was well beaten as recently as last Saturday, which doesn't readd to well for Aljafer.

That said, she is consistent, she gets the trip, has won here over this trip (albeit on A/W) and doesn't mind the quicker ground. I think that she's the best option after Wee Jean for the doubles, but I'd probably not back Aljafer at 5/2 BOG in a single.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

La Superba / Aljafer @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
La Superba / Wee Jean @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : generally)
Spirit of Wezda / Aljafer @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
Spirit of Wezda / Wee Jean @ 14/1 (3/1 & 11/4 : generally)

Double Dutch, 12th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th August 2015

Not the biggest return we've ever had, but two well-backed winners did at least combine to give us a 9.71/1 winning double to get us back on track after a pretty poor recent run.

The double was originally struck at 10.81/1, but a 15p Rule 4 deduction (probably 20p if you used Paddy P!), reduced the payout. Mind you it was still far better than the 4.73/1 paid out at SP, after Mister Rockandroll and Sleepy Blue Ocean were winners at 10/1 and 2/1 respectively.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Mister Rockandroll : WON at 10/11 (adv 13/8 = 1.38/1 after R4)
Card High : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4 = 2.34/1 after R4)
----------------------------------------------------
Sleepy Blue Ocean : WON at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Hardy Black : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
648 winning selections from 2293 = 28.26%
204 winning bets in 594 days = 34.34%

Stakes: 1187.50pts
Returns: 1300.95pts
P/L : +113.45pts (+9.55% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

And so to Wednesday...

4.30 Salisbury :

Faery Song was possibly a little unlucky in finishing third at Leicester last time out. That was three weeks ago on her handicap debut and a first crack at today's 1m2f trip. Short of room as the pace increased, she had to check her stride and switch outside and on the run-in those split second things can cost several lengths.

She did, however, get going again, and she caught the eye with a decent finish to make up some ground to grab third, a length and a head behind a winner receiving 16lbs from her. Jockey George Baker is in fine form and has an 18/51 record over the last 2 years when riding for David Lanigan, for whom the 15/8 BOG Faery Song is his only chance of prize money today.

None of her rivals excite me, though, and I'm probably going to err on the side of caution with the relatively consistent Dark Avenger as backup, who looks to get off the mark at the eighth attempt. He has however, never finished out of the first four home and tends not to get beaten by too far too often. He has tried this trip just the once, when beaten by a length after being headed late on over this course and distance in May.

He's now 2lb lighter than that solid run, hood and blinkers are also applied today for further help and the booking of Jamie Spencer is a positive move as jockey and trainer are 8/20 in the last two seasons together and they'll be hoping that Dark Avenger finally breaks his duck at 3/1 BOG.

*

5.50 Bath :

With very little recent winning form on display from any of the eight runners here, it could well pay to side with the reliable Top Cop. For sure, he doesn't win very often, but finishes of 3223 in the last five weeks, all under today's jockey Matthew Cosham suggests this 6yr old gelding isn't too far away from landing one and this looks abut the weakest race he's contested for a while.

He has won here in the past and the going/trip shouldn't be too much of a concern, as long as he avoids the traffic that derailed his bid last time out. Top Cop currently trades at around the 2/1 BOG mark.

The main challenge is likely to come from Burnt Cream, who does at least have some winning form over course and distance, has won two and placed in four other runs on firm ground and is a four-time winner at this 5f trip. A recent losing run has seen this mare's mark (OR) drop down to 55, which was the last figure that she won off and now that she's also dropping in class, Burnt Cream to be seen as dangerous at 4/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Faery Song / Top Cop @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Hills)
Faery Song / Burnt Cream @ 13.50/1 (19/10 & 4/1 : 10Bet)
Dark Avenger / Top Cop @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Dark Avenger / Burnt Cream @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Hills)

Double Dutch, 11th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 11th August 2015

The dog wasn't available yesterday, so I had to pick again! And results, although not as good as I'd like, were an improvement upon Saturday's poor show.

On paper, a winner, a runner-up and two third places looks pretty good, but that's not good enough to make any money and as bare results actually flatter me!

Race 1 was at Ballinrobe, where we had second and third, separated by just 0.75 lengths (I expected them to be close), which looks well, but they actually finished 20 lngths behind a winner who himself was two lengths down at the last before the leader fell! Bare results often hide the full story.

All of which meant the Windsor race was about salvaging pride, which it did to some extent. I liked Bishops Leap, I though 5/2 was a good price and I felt that Breden would need a run after 647 days. As it was, the market didn't like Bishops Leap, sending him off at 4/1, but he overhauled Breden late on, as the latter expectedly tired, beating him by half a length with our other runner three lengths further back.

Monday's results were as follows:

Punch Bag : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
The Scourge : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 6/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Bishops Leap : WON at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Smartie Artie : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
646 winning selections from 2289 = 28.22%
203 winning bets in 593 days = 34.29%

Stakes: 1185.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +110.09pts (+9.29% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

Just as Monday was better than Saturday, further improvement is required from...

5.25 Carlisle :

Mister Rockandroll has been in good form of late and took a step up in both trip (up 2f) and class (C5 to C4) readily in his stride when winning the £11,000 Brighton Challenge Cup just 5 days ago. He's turned out quickly under a penalty before any reassessment kicks in and a slight 0.5f drop back in trip and a return to Class5 racing should make this an easier affair for him.

It's interesting to see Joe Fanning take the ride today ahead of Nicky Mackay and Joe is an expert at judging the pace of a race and I feel the slightly easier task with a better jockey on board could more than compensate for a career-mark high and I'd not be surprised to see Mister Rockandroll go in again at 7/4 BOG.

Of the rivals, Card High looks best placed to mount a serious challenge, having 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from his last 7 outings with all three wins coming wearing today's tongue tie. He has finished second on each of his last two runs since winning at Newcastle in May, but hasn't been beaten by far and was only half a length behind the consistent Sergeant Pink last time out.

That was over today's course and distance off the same mark as today, but as it was a Pro-Am Ladies race, today's jockey Emma Sayer was unable to use her claim, but the 5lbs should be quite useful this time around. On paper, Card High has a little to find from the main selection, but I do expect him to be there or thereabouts as he usually is and we can get 11/4 BOG for him here.

*

7.45 Nottingham :

Sleepy Blue Ocean isn't as good on turf as he is on A/W, as a 16 race losing streak over 2 yrs will testify. But he has shown signs of a return to form thanks to a dropping mark of late and despite his recent poor run still has a 5/19 record on good to firm ground. He's a 3-times winner over this trip on turf, but has an overall record of 10/59 over 5f, so he clearly gets the trip.

He has won over course and distance in the past and in jockey Jim Crowley (who steered him to that C&D win), he has a rider with a good record at this venue and although Sleepy Blue Ocean isn't an obvious contender, I think he'll go well today at 7/2 BOG, but...

...I'd expect him to be paying second fiddle to the 9/4 BOG Hardy Black, who looks to have settled into some decent form having dropped down from the 7f/1m trips he tried and largely failed at in the past. Two good efforts resulting in fairly narrow defeats over 6f at the start of July were followed up by a nice win at Wetherby last time out.

That was his third sprint run in three weeks, but he's now had a similar amount of time off to recover from his exertions, where he came from last to first to just get up by half a length late on. Jockey Stephen Donohoe was riding him for the first time that and with the knowledge gained from that run, he's back in the driving seat again today and for me, Hardy Black is the one to beat, especially with fewer rivals to pass if adopting the same tactics.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mister Rockandroll / Hardy Black @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : Ladbrokes)
Mister Rockandroll / Sleepy Blue Ocean @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : generally)
Card High / Hardy Black @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Coral)
Card High / Sleepy Blue Ocean @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : generally)

Double Dutch, 10th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th August 2015

You'll have to just trust/believe me that Saturday's picks were as well thought out as normal and they weren't just the result of me letting my dog point to them on a racecard.

That said, she'd probably have done a better job than the results I achieved! 4th & 6th in an admittedly tight finish to a 7-runner contest at Newmarket (beaten by 0.75L & 2.25L) was followed by even worse...

...at Lingfield where we got 4th (5.5L) and 5th (8L) on a 10 runner, 6f contest where a 25/1 shot made all to win cosily, spreading the field out over 30 lengths from front to back. I suppose that says it all!

Saturday's results were as follows:

Mutasayyid : 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Almohtaseb : 6th at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Eglantyne Dream : 4th at 8/1 (adv 4/1)
Harlequin Rock : 5th at 13/8 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2285 = 28.23%
203 winning bets in 592 days = 34.29%

Stakes: 1183.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +112.09pts (+9.47% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'll be hoping for a better week than the last one, starting today with...

Your first 30 days for just £1

7.10 Ballinrobe :

Punch Bag looks the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG, coming off the back of a five week rest since completing a third win in four outings via a double at Limerick in June/July under today's jockey who has won on each on the three occasions he has been on board. They clearly get on well and this looks a great opportunity to extend that record.

With Gordon Elliott training three of the six runners here, it's safe to assume that it's a race he'd like to win and although his horses aren't going as well as he's like, there have been signs of improvement of late. I'm actually going to take the 7/1 BOG outsider of his runners here as my backup, as I feel The Scourge has most to offer.

He was beaten by Punch Bag (above) in mid-April by 7 lengths in the first race of that four race sequence I mentioned earlier, but he was carrying 5lbs more than the winner that day and is now rated some 13lbs lower, he has to stand a good chance of closing that gap.

Throw in a 7lb jockey claim and we're effectively 25lbs better off for 7 lengths. I know it doesn't alsways work like that, but The Scourge has run well and won since and I just think 7/1 BOG is too big to ignore (possible E/W punt?).

*

7.50 Windsor :

Six go to post for this one and I can see the winner coming from the first three in the market, so which to omit as there seems little to choose between them?

The one I'm leaving out is Breden, despite him winning three of his last five runs and dropping down to Class 3 after a 2/2 record at Class 2. I just think he'll need the run after 647 days off the track, especially carrying top weight, conceding 15lbs to Bishops Leap!

Bishops Leap is rated 6lbs lower than Breden, but as a 3 yr old gets a very helpful 9lbs weight for age allowance, enabling him to carry just 8-13 today. Trainer Andrew Balding has a good record on this track and the horse has finished 311 in his three starts so far. All three runs have been over today's trip and twice on good to firm ground, so conditions look ideal at 5/2 BOG.

The one likeliest to deny him the hat-trick would appear to be Smartie Artie, another runner with just three starts under his belt, albeit as a 4yr old so no weight allowance here. He was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago, when making all to score by 2.5 lengths despite easing down towards the line and conceding weight all round.

The runner-up has since reappeared and improved to within 1.5 lengths of a winner and at 3/1 BOG, Smartie Artie looks a solid backup.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Punch Bag / Bishops Leap @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Paddy)
Punch Bag / Smartie Artie @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4: Paddy)
The Scourge / Bishops Leap @ 23.50/1 (6/1 & 5/2 : Bet365)
The Scourge / Smartie Artie @ 25.25/1 (6/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor, Coral & SkyBet)

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

I went with Gowanharry on Saturday, partly because of trainer Micheal Dods's record in handicaps at Ayr and with his two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in our featured race, the proof was in the proverbial pudding.

To my naked eye, the margin of victory looked more than the official neck declared and thankfully it was our runner that prevailed and she appealed to still have something in hand at the finish.

She had been well supported thoughout the day, which made our advised 11/4 BOG odds look very good indeed, as she was returned a 6/4 winner.

That meant we had 4 winners from 6 last week, but Monday starts a new week, the slate is wiped clean and we start all over again in the...

6.00 Thirsk :

A 10-runner, Class 4 , 5 furlong sprint for 2 yr olds on good to firm ground where the presence of a very short favourite means we can avail ourselves of some of the 5/1 BOG on offer for Ralph (Raif) Beckett's colt Point of Woods, who aims to go one better than when rattling the crossbar at York a little over a fortnight ago.

Regular readers of my column will know that Mondays are generally low on quality, numbers of runners and potential statistical angles to explore. They also know that I'm quite fond of using trainers like Ralph Beckett, because he has such a large number of runners historically to work from.

And so, on another tricky Monday, we're back with Ralph and the obvious starting point, which is something I've advised you to do in the past...

Your first 30 days for just £1

...back all his runners!

Really. Back them all. And if you'd done so since the start of 2008, this is where'd you be : 493 winners from 3044 bets, a very healthy 16.2% strike rate bearing level stakes profits (LSP) of some 567.6pts at an ROI of 18.7%. These are truly remarkable figures from blindly backing around 400 per year, but I do appreciate that might be a little too much action for some of you, so we'll break the 3044 bets down as follows...

  • non-hcps : 271/1591 (17% SR) for 448.6pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • maidens : 215/1160 (18.5% SR) for 322.5pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds  : 143/938 (15.2% SR) for 292.6pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 : 119/784 (15.2% SR) for 101 pts at an ROI of 12.9%

For a small microsystem generating around 85-90 bets a year, backing Ralph Beckett's 2yo maidens (like Point of Woods!) gives 108 winners from 666 (16.2% SR, in line with his overall SR) and profits of 271.5pts (+40.8% ROI).

Point of Woods is Ralph's only runner here at Thirsk today and since 2008, he has sent 1386 horses to run on thier own at a track and the 248 winners givess a very respectable 17.9% win ratio that has so far generated 335.7pts of profit at an ROI of 24.2%, which is very good indeed. It should also be noted that of those 1386 sole travellers, 590 of them were Ralph's only runner of the day like Point of Woods is today.

Of those 590 single entrants, 117 (19.8% SR) have been winners and they have produced LSP of 170.3pts at an ROI of 28.9% to date.

Point of Woods is by Showcasing, whose offsapring have done really well over the last two seasons, since his first foal hit the track in April 2014. TO be more precise, his progeny are 79/474 (16.7% SR) for 22.6pts profits (+47% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • 2yr olds : 59/309 (18.1% SR) for 168.1pts (+54.4% ROI)
  • maidens : 41/219 (18.7% SR) for 160pts (+73.1% ROI)
  • 2yo maidens : 34/185 (18.4% SR) for 140.3pts (+75.8% ROI)
  • 5 furlong races  : 30/159 (18.9% SR) for 49.3pts (+31% ROI)
  • good to firm ground : 16/137 (11.7% SR) for 87.6pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 races  :14/76 (18.4% SR) for 20pts (+26.3% ROI)

The strike rates for all those angles are pretty consistent and all produce decent profits. Unfortunately if you attempt to combine more than a couple of the elements above, it makes your sample size too small too work with, but with a slight relaxation of the criteria, I have a workable micro as follows...

Showcasing's 2yo maidens at 5-6 furlongs on ground ranging from Good to Soft through to Good to Firm at Classes 3 to 5 are 19/107 (17.8% SR) for 75pts (+70.1% ROI), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 31.9pts (+83.9% ROI).

And that's your lot for Monday!

I've taken 5/1 BOG about Point of Woods from the Betfair Sportsbook and as of 1.00am, it was also available from Bet365, with many firms not yet quoting on the race.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 8th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th August 2015

We ere back to crossbar-rattling at Musselburgh on Friday afternoon, with a pair of runners-up as our best finishers. Strangely though, both short-priced favourties flopped and the two longer picks which I expected to come second, did exactly that!

I just picked the wrong ones to win!

Poplar Close came late (too late?) and was well held in the end, whilst Glenrowan Rose was a shade unlucky to get collared very late on, losing by a short head. But, if you don't get home, you don't get paid! And so it proved for her and us on a day best forgotten.

Friday's results were as follows:

Poplar Close : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Tholen : 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Glenrowan Rose : 2nd at Evs (adv 7/4)
Plagiarism : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2281 = 28.28%
203 winning bets in 591 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1181.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +114.09pts (+9.66% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last picks of the week and a winning send-off would be most pleasant...

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.45 Newmarket :

26 winners from 74 (35.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+42.6% ROI) in the last 30 days suggests the Roger Varian horses are flying and in Almohtaseb, they've got a great cance of extending that record. The yard historically does well in Flat handicaps and has a good record with handciap debutants, especially those stepping up in trip and their runner here is in good nick too.

He didn't see out a mile on the Rowley course here on debut in mid-April, but was a good second next time out at Salisbury (7f), staying on and then was a comprehensive 7 lengths winner at Doncaster next/last time out. That was 16 days ago and the manner of the win said he had plenty left and moving back to a mile today shouldn't be enough to stop Almohtaseb and that's probably why he's 15/8 BOG!

Mutasayyid is the backup and he's already raced several times at this level to good effect. He has won two and placed in three others from just six starts and has two very good recent runs in better races than this. He was 2nd (1.25L) behind Portage in a £28k Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out a fortnight ago in a race that came two weeks after a third place run over this course and distance in a £25k race.

He finished just over 2 lengths behind the runner-up (who only lost by a neck), Great Park, who has since made a winning reappearance and if that form holds out, it could point to some further improvement from Mutasayyid today. It has been suggested that he'd want softer ground than he'll get here (the Ascot run was on Soft), but that 3rd over C&D was on similar Good to Firm as he'll face today and I think that the 9/2 BOG from Coral is more than fair.

*

5.20 Lingfield :

This won't be the strongest/best nursery race you'll see this season, with the runners having a combined record of 1 win and 2 places from 34, so it makes sense (to me, anyway!) to start with those who have at least shown some promise.

Harlequin Rock is the sole winner here and he absolutely romped home by five lengths at Nottingham on Monday under today's jockey John Egan, who incidentally rode yesterday's Stat of the Day horse to victory, but I digress! He does drop back in trip here today, but that last run suggested he has the turn of foot required to take this one today.

I'd expect him to be raised by more than the 6lb penalty incurred from that win, so he's quite possibly well in at the weights and in a race of inexperienced horses with little form behind them, Harlequin Rock does look a fairly solid pick here at 2/1 BOG.

The two to have placed in the past are Silver Springs and Eglantyne Dream and I'm going to side with the latter. This will be her fifth start, having finished third on debut at Bath on debut back in he first week of June, staying on well over what looked an inadequate 5f trip on quick ground and she already has handicap (nursery) experience from her latest run, which was over today's course and distance three weeks ago.

She finished fourth of six that day, beaten by four lengths on similarly good to firm ground as today (and also from her Bath 3rd place) and the bare result doesn't really fill you with confidence, but closer inspection of the race tells you otherwise. The official report given in the results says she had no extra inside the final furlong, but it neglects to tell you that she was really well positioned with every chance when her jockey dropped the whip with the best part of that furlong to run.

Obviously, it's pure conjecture to say she would have won, but I'm convinced she would have at least made the frame. She was 1.75 lengths behind Davids Beauty who finished third and she then reappeared here over course and distance to win just four days later, which could point to another good run from Eglantyne Dream who is priced at 4/1 BOG, as she drops in class today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Almohtaseb / Harlequin Rock @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : Paddy & BetVictor)
Almohtaseb / Eglantyne Dream @ 12.75/1 (7/4 & 4/1 : Paddy)
Mutasayyid / Harlequin Rock @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Hills)
Mutasayyid / Eglantyne Dream @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1 : Generally)

Double Dutch, 7th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th August 2015

We didn't exactly make enough profit to retire yesterday, so I'm back again this morning finally relieved to have broken what seems like a never-ending run of near misses.

Sure, nobody's getting rich off 0.5pt doubles at 8.63/1, but they're a start and they're also far better than the 9/2 we'd have got paid out at SP!

Sleep Easy and Ians Memory were our winners and with Showboating the next home in race 2, there was the small added bonus of an exacta at 5/2.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Sleep Easy : WON at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Storm Check : 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Ians Memory : WON at Evs (adv 7/4)
Showboating : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
The exacta paid £3.50 here.

Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2277 = 28.33%
203 winning bets in 590 days = 34.41%

Stakes: 1179.50pts
Returns: 1295.59pts
P/L : +116.09pts (+9.84% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

I could now do with a double double from these Friday fancies, which are mainly derived from a stats perspective, although they should go well regardless...

2.00 Musselburgh :

Tholen is trained by Mark Johnston who has a near-20% strike rate at this track in the last four seasons with his 2 yr olds winning 13 of 47 (27.7% SR) for 40.9pts (+86.9% ROI). Those running at Class 5 are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 12.14pts (+86.7% ROI) , whilst the 7f runners are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 9.26pts (+48.7% ROI)

Combined, the Johnston 2yo's are 3/5 (60% SR) at odds of 7/2 and shorter for 2.9pts (+58% ROI) in C5, 7f races and Tholen can be backed at 7/4 BOG.

Poplar Close makes a handicap debut for David O'Meara here today and in the last four seasons, the yard is 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 73.3pts (+78.9% ROI) and in the same time time frame, the team's Musselburgh handciappers priced at 5/1 and shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 19.67pts (46.8% ROI).

The yard is in good nick, having hit 9 winners from 37 in the last week alone and if you think Poplar Close could be number 10, you can get 4/1 BOG on that happening.

*

2.30 Musselburgh :

Like Tholen above, Plagiarism is another 2yo from the Mark Johnston yard, so the reasons above suggest he'll go well here and I should also point out that this 13/8 BOG chance is ridden by Joe Fanning and that's relevant, because...

...since 2008 the combination of Johnston / Fanning / Musselburgh is 45/173 (26% SR) for 74.7pts (+43.2% ROI) with non-handicap races providing 18 winners from 59 (30.5% SR) and 45.3pts (+76.7% ROI) of level stakes goodness, which backs up the claims of Plagiarism here.

Whereas Glenrowan Rose represents Keith Dalgleish whose record is Musselburgh non-handciaps id decent although not outstanding at 9/63 (14.3% SR), but the returned profits of 93.3pts (+148% ROI) are fantastic. His 2 yo's non-hcps are 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 100.8pts (+229.1% ROI), whilst over 5f he is 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 80.3pts (+334.4% ROI).

The Dalgleish 2yo, non-handicappers over 5f at Musselburgh are 4/22 (18.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+321.9% ROI) and if you like Glenrowan Rose, 7/2 BOG is available.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Tholen / Plagiarism @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Coral & Betfair)
Tholen / Glenrowan Rose @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Poplar Close / Plagiarism @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : Betfair)
Poplar Close / Glenrowan Rose @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 6th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th August 2015

Wednesday?
Groundhog Day!

As seems to be the case of late, the picks aren't bad, but not quite good enough to get home and so it proved once again.

At Ponty, both selections drifted markedly in the betting prior to the off and Chiswick Bey ran best for us, just going down by 0.75 lengths as an 11/2 runner-up with the 5/1 Danas Present 5.25 lengths and 3 places further back.

This rendered the Newcastle contest as little more than a pride-salvaging mission, but the fact that Pacngo's 3.5 length defeat back in third place was the best I could manage, not even my pride remained intact.

As is often the case for us Lancastrians, Yorkshire was a bit of an anti-climax! 😀  This time however I mean the horse, not the noisy neighbours, which came home well beaten by 11 lengths in 7th of 8 runners.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Chiswick Bey : 2nd at 11/2 (adv 10/3)
Danas Present : 5th at 5/1 (adv 2/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Pacngo : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Yorkshire : 7th at 3/1 (adv 9/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
643 winning selections from 2273 = 28.29%
202 winning bets in 589 days = 34.30%

Stakes: 1177.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +113.28pts (+9.62% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Looking for a change in fortune via these on Thursday...

5.20 Southwell :

Since 2009, trainer Hughie Morrison has a decent 23.5% strike rate here on the A/W at Southwell, whilst jockey Martin Harley has won 20 of his 95 rides here. They are both profitable to follow blindly here at this track and today they team up with Sleep Easy, a 3yr old son of Rip Van Winkle, whose offspring have an 18% strike rate on the all-weather at trips of 6 to 13 furlongs. You can get 5/2 BOG about Sleep Easy today.

My other pick here is the lightly (3 so far) raced Storm Check, who represents Saeed bin Suroor today. A lack of time and space prevent me from listing the full story, but this horse ticks many boxes with regards to the trainer's optimum racing conditions ie a switch from turf to A/W, a hcp debut, hcp debut stepped up in trip, the weight for age system and 3yo's stepped in trip, all of which are area that Saeed excels in, making Storm Check very interesting here at 11/4 BOG.

*

7.00 Southwell :

Another Martin Harley mount expected to go well here is Ians Memory, it's widely accepted that USA-bred runners perform well here at Southwell and trainer Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record in A/W handicaps and if you tie the two together with the info that this horse is 3131 over a mile on A/W this year, including a course and distance win on his only previous visit, then Ians Memory has to be on the shortlist at 7/4 BOG.

Similarly priced at 7/4 BOG is another former course and distance winner Showboating, whose last run was an impressive 6 lengths win over this track and trip just 10 days ago, notching his second win in four starts at this venue. He's up 6lbs for that win, but the manner of hs victory last time out, when he could have won by twice the distance had he wanted to, suggests more would be needed to stop him!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sleep Easy / Ians Memory @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : generally)
Sleep Easy / Showboating @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : generally)
Storm Check / Ians Memory @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betfred, Stan James, Totesport)
Storm Check / Showboating @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betfred, Stan James, Totesport)

Double Dutch, 5th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th August 2015

Tuesday proved to be yet another frustrating day for us, as once again we found a winner, but only had a placer to pair it with.

Of course, it means we're constantly on the right track and that the selections are good, but coming close doesn't put points on the board.

On this occasion Elis Eliz was a length and a half away from landing us a near-12/1 return and but for a slow start, who knows?

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Amour de Nuit : WON at 10/11 (adv 15/8)
Duke Street : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
The exacta paid £2.90.
----------------------------------------------------
Elis Eliz : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 7/2)
Bertie Blu Boy : 5th at 5/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
643 winning selections from 2269 = 28.34%
202 winning bets in 588 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1175.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +115.28pts (+9.81% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

And on to Wednesday...

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.40 Pontefract :

Richard Fahey's runners tend to go really well here at Pontefract, especially at this lower end of the spectrum and over trips of a mile or shorter and this suggests that Chiswick Bey has every opportunity of maintaining his recent fine form with a view to going in at 100/30 BOG.

He won a couple of handicaps (C5 & C3) earlier in the "summer" and was only beaten by three quarters of a length at a higher grade than this 11 days ago. A drop in class here and the booking of Samantha Bell are both of interest to me. The class drop obviously increases his chances and Ms Bell's claim effectively makes Chiswick Bey a pound lighter, as well as her having a 22.1% strike rate (19/86 for 43pts @ 50% ROI) on the Fahey runners this year.

The big danger is the well fancied and 9/4 BOG favourite Danas Present, who also drops down in class today and can be considered very unlucky not to be coming here off the back of a win at Glorious Goodwood, where he envountered traffic issues in a 16-runner field and got out just a fraction too late. He fairly flew home, but went down by just a head at 33/1!

He is a 5-time winner over today's trip and has already won three times this year and with trainer Tom Dascombe having a decent record here at this venue, I think we can expect another good performance from Danas Present off the same mark of 78 as that narrow Goodwood defeat.

*

8.20 Newcastle :

Certainly not the best race you'll see this week or even today. In fact, not even at this meeting for that matter, but the weakness of this C6 handicap represents an excellent opportunity for the 5/2 BOG Pacngo to record a 12-day double after finally getting of the mark at the 8th time of asking at Thirsk recently. This son of Paco Boy is partnered by promising 5lb claimer Rachel Richardson for this run and her claim more than compensated for a small 2lb rise in weight for that win.

The runner-up then finished 2nd again nine days ago, before winning by 3.25 lengths five days ago, whilst the third placed horse at Thirsk was only beaten by a length at Catterick yesterday. Pacngo could be one of those to benefit from a rise in confidence after finally winnnig and not only is he effectively 3lbs lighter, it is also hoped that the first-time application of a hood will help get a little bit more from him.

As a backup plan, there's very little winning or even decent form to go off, but one that might look a bit of a punt yet still interesting is the 9/2 BOG Yorkshire. Off the track for 232 days and making another yard debut (this is his 4th trainer inside 12 months!), you'd be excused in thinking he's already had his time after just 6 starts.

However, David O'Meara is the latest handler asked to get the best out of this Tagula gelding. And in fairness, he does do well with new recruits and also with horses returning from long lay-offs, so the market will probably be a good indicator here about a horse who showed some promise in three maidens last year, before clearly being given far too high an opening handicap mark of 63 for the first of his three handicap runs.

That mark was dropped by 2lbs after each defeat, so he was last seen getting beaten on the A/W off 59. He's back on turf, well rested, representing new yard and is now only rated at 57. Mr O'Meara has entrusted the ride to Josh Doyle and if Josh's 7lb claim can't reduce Yorkshire to a workable weight today, then I'm not entirely sure what needs to be done!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Danas Present / Pacngo @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Betfair, Coral, SkyBet & Paddy)
Danas Present / Yorkshire @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : Stan James)
Chiswick Bey / Pacngo @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Chiswick Bey / Yorkshire @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 4th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th August 2015

Good Morning everyone, firstly I kick off with an apology about yesterday. I'd been in Majorca on a "working break" (working by the pool beats rainy East Lancashire hands down!), but a loss of wifi at the hotel and a 2hr flight delay meant I hadn't got the double online before 11.00am.

This meant that Matt had to jump in at the last minute and not only was it one of the poorest days of racing for a long time, his hands were pretty tied into going to the evening meetings only, due to timings etc.

So, despite another frustrating near miss, I thought he did rather well at trying to land a 19/1 double via two awful contests! As it was, it was another one of those winner/runner-up combo days, that did at least reward those doing the forecasts/exactas with a nice 1-2 finish at Windsor.

"Normal" service/timings today, but hopefully a change in luck for me.

Monday's results were as follows:

Kenny The Captain : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Blue Jacket : 4th at 3/1 (adv 16/5)
----------------------------------------------------
Uele River : WON at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Burmese : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 16/5)
The Exacta paid £12.70 here.

Results to date:
642 winning selections from 2265 = 28.34%
202 winning bets in 587 days = 34.41%

Stakes: 1173.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +117.28pts (+9.99% ROI)

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Tuesday's selected races are as follows...

8.05 Ripon:

Duke Street has been in imperious form of late, not only running well but proving to be very versatile too. He has finished 14111 in his last five starts, including wins over 12 and 14 furlongs before winning his last two at today's two mile trip. The four wins came on Wolverhampton's Tapeta, Chelmsford's Polytrack and on soft ground at Chepstow last time out, so Good to Soft here shouldn't be an issue, nor should the trip.

He's up another 8lb for his recent form to a mark of 77, but does get a very healthy 15lbs weight for age allowance  and when you combine his trainer's (Mark Johnston) record with 3 yr olds in longer distance open age handciaps with the way Duke Street comfortably got home by four lengths last time out, then this one has to be on the shortlist here at 5/2 BOG.

He may, however, struggle to concede 2lbs to another well-treated 3 yr old in the guise of the 15/8 BOG favourite Amour de Nuit, whose trainer Sir Mark Prescott is 5/14 with 3yr olds in handicaps here at Ripon and is also another of the leading exponents at exploiting the WFA "loophole".

Amour de Nuit won at the first time of trying 2m at Lingfield last time out, just about getting home by a neck staying on well despite having to cahnge course a couple of times in a race that offered little room at the head of affairs. Prior to that, he'd finished 2nd over 1m5f and 1m6f, outpaced in the midsection on both occasions, but staying on strongly at the finish, suggesting that this is his best trip and with the benefit of having that run at Lingfield, could well imrpove further today.

*

9.20 Chelmsford :

Bertie Blu Boy is certainly towards the upper reaches of his capabilites here off a mark of 83 less a 7lb claim, but the return to familiar racing conditions might just eke a little more out of him again this evening. He effectively runs off the same mark as a 0.75 length defeat as a runner-up over this track and trip last time out (2 weeks ago).

I've nothing against Rob Hornby, who rode him last time (in fact, I rate him pretty highly off his 5lb claim), but Kevin Lundie just seems to get a bit more out of the horse, winning 6 of their 10 races together, including a perfect three from three record here at Chelmsford. They have won together over course and distance and that was at a grade higher than this two starts ago. This says that if Kevin can get a similar level of performance from Bertie Blu Boy as that run then they've every chance at 5/2 BOG.

He is, of course, totally exposed and vulnerable to one with less miles on the clock and that could well be the 7/2 BOG shot Elis Eliz, who interests me here based on her dropping down to 5f for the first time, after three consecutive close defeats in third place over 6f at Class 2, 3 and 4! In each of those 6f runs, she's been found wanting late on, especially when caught and headed in the closing stages here over course and distance at a higher grade last time out.

She was partnered by the in-form Andrea Atzeni for the first time that day and I'm pleased to see him back in the saddle today, having gained some valuable knowledge about the horse from last time. It is also worth noting that Andrea is 12/49 on the A/W for Michael Wigham (11/23 at odds below 9/2!), suggesting a good run from Elis Eliz again today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Amour de Nuit / Bertie Blu Boy @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : BetWay)
Amour de Nuit / Elis Eliz @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetWay & Paddy Power)
Duke Street / Bertie Blu Boy @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet, Boylesports & Stan James)
Duke Street / Elis Eliz @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor, Boylesports & Stan James)