Double Dutch, 18th August 2015
When you're in a poor run of form/results, the last thing you want is for a horse to get caught virtually on the line, even more so, when they're other half of a double set to payout at 13/1, but that's what happened yesterday.
Algaith was brave/plucky/determined*** (delete as applicable) in making all to hold on for a win by a length and a quarter at Chelmsford, which was fantastic.
Unfortunately for us, Postbag had already failed to hang on at Windsor just twenty minutes earlier, meaning another empty-handed journey home.
Monday's results were as follows:
Postbag : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Bella Lulu : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Algaith : WON at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Maftool : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
652 winning selections from = 28.19%
204 winning bets in 599 days = 34.06%
P/L : +110.70pts (+9.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Close yesterday but aiming for a little bit more from...
My two against the field here share a few similarities in that both trainers and both jockeys have decent records here at this track. Both hail from in form yards and both are making their handicap debuts and both have one win from three or four runs to date. (That saves me typing it all twice!)
First up, we have Godolphin's Fast Enough whose form line shows gradually improving results at 4321 and rounded off with a comfortable 3.25 length success at Brighton 11 days ago. He was eased down towards the finish yet still won easily in a race where the runner-up reappeared last night at Chelmsford to win by 4.5 lengths, making Fast Enough of interest here at odds of up to 3/1 BOG.
On paper, though, Case Key's form (180) looks to be going the other way, but this is one of the reasons why the form line alone shouldn't be used to make selections. Because that doesn't tell you that he won over this course and distance on debut quite easily, before being deemed good enough to compete in a Listed event and then a Group 3 contest! He was obviously well beaten (c. 15 lengths in each), but will have gained vital experience from those outings.
This is a Class 4 Nursery, so quite far down the pecking order from a Group 3 race, as demonstrated five days ago at Lingfield; Stormflower was 3 lengths ahead of Case Key at Goodwood last time out, but has returned to action with a win last Thursday and Case Key is priced at 4/1 BOG to follow suit.
Daniel Kubler's horses are going well at the moment, including the 9/4 BOG Trimoulet who runs here under a penalty after scoring at Wolverhampton 8 days ago. That came of the back of a near-17 week break and he managed to pick up his decent form from earlier in the year, taking his 2015 record to 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runs. He has a win and a third from two efforts here, so he "gets" the track well enough and looks set for another decent show.
The big threat is the A/W 100%-er Injun Sands who comes here to defend a 2 from 2 record on the A/W acquired in back to back runs earlier in the "summer" (if you could call it that). Firstly, he won over 1m4f at Lingfield, where he finished strongly to win by a neck over 1m4f (Class 5) despite it being his first run for 306 days and then just three weeks later, he stepped up in both class and trip to win here at Chelmsford over course and distance by a length and a half.
Since then he has run twice more, well beaten on unsuitably soft ground at Ayr, before an excellent run at Haydock next/last time out, where he just failed by a neck to land a 1m6f handicap. A return to the artifical surface would be welcomed and based on that Haydock run, Injun Sands looks to have every chance here at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Fast Enough / Trimoulet @12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : Betfair SB, Betfred & SkyBet)
Fast Enough / Injun Sands @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Bet365, Paddy & Stan James)
Case Key / Trimoulet @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Case Key / Injun Sands @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)