Tag Archive for: free windsor tips

Racing Insights, Monday 16th May 2022

The free feature of the day on Mondays is the pace tab on the racecards for every race. Pace is an absolutely crucial part of race reading and differences in pace can lead to massively different results in the same race - so take advantage of the pace data on Monday if you are a free registered member rather than a full Geegeez Gold subscriber.

As usual there are a number of races where the racecards are completely open and available to all registered free users of Geegeez and on Monday these races are as follows:

1.35 Redcar
1.45 Ffos Las
2.10 Redcar
4.15 Carlisle
6.10 Windsor
7.20 Leicester

The best of these races is undoubtedly the 6.10 at Windsor, a rare listed race on a Monday.

The race will be run over 6f and 8 runners are set to go to post making it an interesting race for each way bets should all the runners stand their ground. There is rain forecast in the lead up to the race but it doesn’t look enough to have much of an impact on the going as things stand.

In a smallish field around a fairly fair track there shouldn’t be a draw bias but we should check anyway. We can check on both the draw and the pace at the same time through the draw and pace combination heat map.

The main draw bias appears to affect horses that race in mid division, there is a huge difference in performance for horses with that run style who are drawn low compared to middle or high. This might just be a freak occurrence but it is reflected across all metrics. Mid division can be the riskiest racing style as far as traffic problems are concerned (at least those held up can choose to navigate around the field) so it seems likely that meeting traffic on the rail can be extremely costly.

As far as pace is concerned, it seems pretty clear that there is normally a pace bias towards those who race nearer the fore. Centrally drawn runners from mid division seem to defy this to a certain extent but front runners drawn lower have the best record of all, which stands to reason as there is often a strip of ground on the rail that seems a bit faster.

The pace map for this race should show us those most likely to be advantaged, or disadvantaged here by their early position.

Mo Celta and Lord Of The Lodge seem most likely to press forward and dispute things. Mo Celta could be slightly better positioned because of his draw. Ropey Guest is most likely to drop in behind those leaders but his wider draw might make that a little tougher, it could be that Atalanta’s Boy takes up a prominent position. Run To Freedom, and even more so Tabdeed, could be the early back markers and that’s interesting given aforementioned pace biases and their relative prices to the rest of the field in the early betting - both are well fancied near the head of the market.

Now let’s look at each runner individually, in early odds order:

Lord Of The Lodge

This 5yo has enjoyed most of his success on the all weather and although Group 2 placed as a 2yo on fast ground, he’s largely come up well short on turf. He was runner up in a pretty decent Group 2 at Leopardstown last summer but he got the run of the race that day and didn’t beat a rival in his next three turf runs. He was better at Meydan in March but his turf form still leaves him with something to find here so despite promising to be well placed in this his turf form, or his turf consistency, just doesn’t justify his price.

Tabdeed

Generally ran to a consistent level last year but he was a bit below par on his return in a handicap at Kempton and he hasn’t won in almost two years. That win was in a Group 3 and he’s a talented horse but he has something to prove on the back of his return and he could be disadvantaged by the run of the race here. It would be no shock if he won this but his early price seems to short based on his reappearance and run style.

Run To Freedom

He was a bit of an eyecatcher on his return in a Newmarket Group 3 considering the course was favouring pace and he met more than enough trouble in running. He’s lightly enough raced and doesn’t have much, if anything, to find on form here but his run style would be a concern. He has been ridden prominently in the past, and even made all, so it might be wise to be a bit more aggressive in this especially as he’s drawn nicely in stall 2.

We won’t know how is ridden until the gates open - if he is in the first three early he’d probably be the most likely winner. If he’s in the last two early then he could struggle. He might be one to look for in running, potentially worth backing after a furlong if getting a good early position.

First Folio

Has a little to find with the market leaders on these terms but he’s only a 4yo and has plenty of time to rate higher. His best form last year came in York handicaps, clearly well suited to that course, but he’s proven himself around the very different Newmarket as well so Windsor isn’t a concern. He did best of those drawn high last time out when a lower draw seemed best at Newmarket so that reappearance can be marked up, not that it really needs marking up given he was 5th in what was probably the most competitive handicap run this season.

He tends to race somewhere between prominent and mid division so he might not be ideally placed but he’ll at least get a clear run from his higher draw. It could be that he just comes up short but he seems to have plenty going for him here and seems a less risky play than either Lord Of The Lodge or Tabdeed. 

Chocoya

One of two fillies in the race. She was progressive last season and finished the season with a close 4th at this level but it was a relatively poor race for the grade and that very much still leaves her with something to find here. She disappointed on seasonal reappearance last time out, beaten before you could say stamina was an issue over and she’ll need to step up here. She’d be of more interest back on the all weather where she has 3 wins and 3 2nds from 6 starts.

Mo Celita

The second filly in the line up and one that was hugely progressive last season - she started out rated 62 in a seller and ended up finishing 4th in the Prix de l’Abbaye. That form would probably be enough to win this, especially as she could be ideally positioned on the rail in the lead early, but there are two major concerns. Much better should have been expected last time out when she was last in a similar race at Doncaster and she’s shown her best form to date on very testing ground. She was 4th on good ground in France last season in a group 3 but she’d surely want more cut to be in with a chance of winning this.

Atalanta’s Boy

He’s slowly made up into a pretty smart horse in recent seasons but he saves his very best for Goodwood, a course where 5 of his last 7 wins have come. He was just beaten here on fast ground off a mark of 86 a couple of seasons ago in a handicap and is another who needs to leave a poor reappearance behind. He’d have been of some interest if this was at Goodwood but he seems about 10lbs better at the Sussex venue.

Ropey Guest

Worst in at the weights of these and his best form has come over further and/or on very testing ground. He’d probably need the ground to be heavy to make any appeal over this kind of test and both he and Atalanta’s Boy are correctly the outsiders of the field. He’ll be more interesting from an each way perspective if any of the big Ascot handicaps over 7f come on very soft ground this season.

Summary

It’s a shame the ground is probably against Mo Celita here, and she needs to prove herself after a lacklustre first run of the season. That leaves Run To Freedom and First Foilio and the most solid pair in this. The former should be able to beat the latter if well enough placed early but that seems a toss a coin and is impossible to predict. So the option is to either back Run To Freedom in running if well placed or back First Folio early. You could do both to be fair but my slight preference is to back First Folio, maybe with a very tiny reverse forecast on the pair with doubts surrounding many of the others.