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Racing Insights, 30th October 2021

Saturday’s free feature of the day is the Trainer Jockey Combo Report, a powerful report that not only shows the most in form trainer and jockey combinations but also highlights the tracks that they have performed best at over the past 1 year and 5 years. Trainers are definitely creatures of habit and some great angles can be gained from this report.

There are also six free races on offer to free registered users and they are as follows:

2.10 Ascot
3.20 Ascot
3.40 Wetherby
4.00 Down Royal
5.00 Wolverhampton
6.00 Wolverhampton

I’m going to ignore some quality races from the above and go for the 6.00 Wolverhampton.

This is a class 6 handicap set to be run over 7f, with 12 runners entered. One of the advantages of concentrating on Wolverhampton is the fact that we have a massive amount of data for both draw and pace for similar races, run in similar conditions, allowing us to draw strong conclusions about possible draw and pace biases. This in turn helps us narrow down the fields, or at the very least mark several runners up and several runners down.

So let’s first look at pace.

As you can see, a huge amount of data contributes to each metric here which means no guessing involved. The difference between racing from the front or prominently is pretty negligible but what is clear is that either of those run styles are very much preferable to racing in mid division or being held up.

That doesn’t mean that those that are a bit more patiently ridden don’t win – in fact almost half of races are won by horses that race in mid division or are held up, but they do provide the bigger sample of runners. If we’re looking to mark runners up or down based on run style we should probably be taking a few pounds off those that will be nearer the pace and adding a few pounds on to those who are likely to be settled off the pace.

Now let’s look at draw.

We have a massive amount of draw data here so we can gather some really strong conclusions.

Whilst a lower draw is preferable to a higher draw, that doesn’t seem to mean stall 1 is best. The bottom five stalls do perform best of all for PRB but not in that order. Stall 5 actually produces the best win %, place % and PRB figure. Ideally you’d probably want to be drawn in stalls 3 or 4 if you aren’t drawn in stall 5, but stalls 1 and 2 do also perform well.

Performance gradually declines once you get above stall 5 but there isn’t a great disadvantage it seems to being drawn a bit higher – stalls 8 and 7 have the next best win percentages respectively and stall 9 has the sixth best place percentage.

The main decline seems to take place once you hit the double figure stalls, almost every metric points to these three stalls being the worst and stalls 11 and 12 look especially tough going with PRB figures of 0.43 and 0.41 respectively.

The draw and pace combination data should also shed some more light on this. Given the individual draw and pace biases you’d expect to see much better performance from low to middle drawn horses that race prominently or front run.

The best draw and pace combinations, using the PRB figures, are prominent from low, prominent from middle and then either front running or mid division from middle. The main negative seems to be mid division from high, presumably because they get stuck very wide, and then held up from high. Trying to make all from high can actually be quite effective though and seems by far the best way to negate the draw bias.

So with all this data in mind the pace map should be very telling here.

The first thing to note is how much pace there is and where it’s coming from. There are three main pace angles and they are all drawn in the highest three stalls. These stalls are a disadvantage but as previously mentioned, the best way of overcoming them is to lead. However by taking each other on early to get a good position it seems likely they’ll spoil each other’s chances.

I’ve added a red box to signify those that are most likely to be seen to best effect given draw and pace combinations. If every runner in this race was equally well handicapped I’d expect these runners to fill the first five places, granted luck in running.

In looking at this field, I’m first going to check if any of those outside of the red box appear to have strong enough claims to overcome the likely disadvantage their racing position will present them with.

City Wanderer, Sweet Angel and Kraka could set this up for something a bit more patiently ridden. City Wanderer is the only one of that trio in any sort of form. He hasn’t won in over two years, has been well held in recent starts and is probably at his best over a little further so we’re unlikely to see any of these three troubling the judge.

Purple Poppy and Makyon are a little higher drawn than ideal and are also likely to be a little too patiently ridden than ideal. Neither has particularly strong form claims either so they’ll have to find massive improvement from somewhere to feature.

Quarter Blue and Split Elevens are well enough drawn but their run styles might not be ideally suited to this venue, for all the race could set up more for hold up horses than most races here do due to the pace scenario.

The former is a lightly raced 3yo who improved last time out for a three month break and/or a switch to artificial surfaces. There hasn’t really been enough time for that form to develop yet but it’s worth noting that she was 3rd in a race where the other four to finish in the first five were all ridden handily. So she’s already done well against one pace bias and she should be capable of running well enough here.

Split Elevens also ran well against a pace bias last time out, running on well at Chelmsford to finish 2nd. He’s clearly not badly handicapped but he has spent most of his career racing over 6f and didn’t convince with his stamina on his only try over 7f. The very early betting has him as favourite and I’d be more than willing to take him on at a shortish price over this distance.

So out of the seven runners who are ‘outside’ of the favoured zone, I can only really make a case for Quarter Blue which helps narrow things down.

The lowest drawn of the quintet inside my red box is the lightly raced Doussard, having her first start since a wind op. She hasn’t really shown much in four starts to date and unless the money comes for her after the wind surgery she’s difficult to fancy.

Itsallaboutluck has hit the crossbar on his last two starts, finishing runner up in both. Those runs both came here but over an extended furlong further. He’s clearly a better horse on the all weather and perhaps racing prominently over this shorter trip might suit him perfectly but he’s looked fairly one paced to date and could be more likely to finish 3rd or 4th than 1st or 2nd.

The very best stall statistically is stall 5 and housed in there is River Chorus, who finished just ahead of Quarter Blue last time out at Kempton. Racing prominently from stall 5 could see her to best effect and she’s weighted to confirm form with Quarter Blue with the added bonus of having run well enough here before. Richard Kingscote looks a good jockey booking and she looks the most solid contender so far if you concentrate on her all weather form.

Peachey Carnehan is well enough handicapped having run well in a strong for the grade course and distance handicap in July before winning off a higher mark than this. He’s had a few excuses since but ran poorly last time out at Newcastle for some reason. He’s extremely experienced here having had 33 starts, winning 5 of those and placing in 9, and it would be no surprise if he went well back at this venue with most seemingly in his favour here.

Last of all we have Monaadhil. He’s not managed to win since 2017 but he did run well enough on his penultimate start at Newcastle over what is probably an inadequate 6f. Certain form lines give him a chance but he’s opposable given his winless run and overall profile.

Summary

So I’ve narrowed this down to Quarter Blue, Itsallaboutluck, River Chorus and Peachey Carnehan. Itsallaboutluck could run quite well but I don’t fancy him to win this one so we can take him out unless you are looking for something to add to a tricast.

Quarter Blue is lightly enough raced to improve past River Chorus but the latter has the much stronger overall profile and is fancied to confirm Kempton form with that rival. She’s 6/1 in the very early betting, which doesn’t mean that will be widely available when the majority of bookies price this up, but she’s the seemingly solid one in the race and the chance to back her each way in this, with seemingly everything in her favour, is quite inviting.

Peachey Carnehan is fancied to bounce back to form here and he should be able to outrun his early odds (10/1) although he’s a bit riskier than River Chorus due to that poorer run last time out. I wouldn’t be put off a small reverse forecast on this pair but I think my main play in the race has to be RIVER CHORUS each way (assuming that 6/1 is available early evening with a few more bookies).

Racing Insights, 20th July 2021

Tuesday’s free feature of the day is the Shortlist Report, an extremely popular part of Geegeez Gold. The Shortlist Report highlights horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in Instant Expert everyday in attempt to flag up runners that are most likely to enjoy conditions – and therefore run to form and run well. It can be used for both win and place purposes and is completely free on Tuesday’s to all free registered users of Geegeez.

The free races for free registered users on Tuesday will be:

2.30 Ffos Las
4.30 Wolverhampton
5.25 Ballinrobe
5.55 Ballinrobe

With limited form on offer in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton this is an opportunity to highlight an often under appreciated part of Instant Expert.

The 4.30 at Wolverhampton is a 12f novice auction stakes open to 3yos and 4yos and thankfully six of the seven runners have had at least one run so we won’t be completely in the dark.

First of all I want to start with Instant Expert. Looking at the runners in Instant Expert isn’t going to give us a ton of information given the limited form on offer but by looking at the sire data we will hopefully find some useful snippets that can be used to narrow the field and highlight those likely to go well.

Looking at the data above, you’d have to have some reservations about Bashful and Jerriais on the surface as their sires, Manduro and Geordieland, have much poorer place records on standard going than the rest of the field. Jerriais has run here on his only start but he was beaten 11 lengths so perhaps connections need to seek turf opportunities instead.

Interestingly Casamento, sire of Flamingo Rose, has a slightly better record on standard than Mount Nelson, sire of Fort Nelson, but Mount Nelson seems to have a far superior record at Wolverhampton compared to Casamento. Something to note.

The sire information for distance could also be quite telling. There is no distance data for Geordieland, sire of Jerriais, but given Geordieland was a two mile winner and placed in the Ascot Gold Cup you’d expect Jerriais to stay well and need all of this trip and then some. Once again things look bleak for Bashful as his sire, Manduro, has a poorer record at this distance. Kendargent, the sire of Bascule, has the best place record at this trip followed by Animal Kingdom, sire of Hanafy.

Overall looking at the above, ignoring what they have achieved on track to date you’d probably be most interested in Hanafy and then Bascule with Fort Nelson also considered.

Note that there is no sire Instant Expert data for the unraced Samara Star who is by Adaay.

The Profiler tool suggests Adaay’s offspring are better on softer turf than either fast ground or all weather surfaces.

There isn’t much form to go on, but let’s take a look at what the runners have achieved so far.

Fort Nelson

Well beaten in two starts at this sort of distance and early warning signs being tried in blinkers on debut and a hood last time out. He’s already tried an all weather surface (at Lingfield) and there is little to suggest he’ll improve here.

Hanafy

Ran a decent 3rd on debut in a national hunt flat race in January for Kevin Bishop before not showing much in one hurdle start. Moved to Mitchell Hunt and was beaten 15 lengths in a novice on stable debut but that was a strong race (winner rated 95, runner up rated 88, 4th rated 89). You’d expect him to get much closer in a much more moderate race here.

First time cheekpieces go on. Worryingly the trainer has used first time cheekpieces twice before and neither runner beat a rival home. A small sample though.

Flamingo Rose

Won a maiden national hunt flat race at Southwell (turf) in May after a wind op, sporting a first time tongue tie. Attempted to follow up last month over two furlongs shy of this trip at Chelmsford but was beaten 16.5 lengths, looking in need of further. The winner of that is now rated 84 so this is likely to be easier but she does need to improve for the extra trip.

Bascule

One of two runners to have a handicap rating (74) and has finished runner up on his last two starts. All three runs to date have come over a mile but the sire stats in Instant Expert pointed to this sort of trip suiting and the dam also stayed this trip. If he improves for the extra half mile he’ll surely go very close and even a reproduction of his previous form at this trip could be enough.

The booking of William Buick catches the eye, he is 3 from 4 for Richard Hughes on the all weather in the past five years.

Bashful

Also rated 74 and also stepping up in trip (from 10f). He’s finished runner up on all three starts this season, including in handicap company last time out, so he’s clearly capable of running to this mark. He possibly didn’t want to go past last time out if you were being critical and probably isn’t one to put too much faith in at shortish prices. This will be his all weather debut and Instant Expert flagged a slightly poor record for Manduro on standard going which is another negative.

Jerriais

Very likely to improve for his first run given that came over less than 10f and he’s by stayer Geordieland. He certainly looked in need of further that day. Geordieland is yet to sire anything rated higher than 65 on the flat and the dam was only rated 67 so it’s unlikely he’ll amount to much on the level, whatever the trip.

Samara Star

Makes her handicap debut for Simon and Ed Crisford. A half sister to Tactician so potential to be smarter than several of these. Obviously the betting will give us plenty of clues but the fact that the sire’s offspring tend to do better on turf than all weather is a slight concern.

Summary

This isn’t going to be a betting heat for many and based on all of the information I have Bascule looks a fair bit more interesting than Bashful and undoubtedly looks the one to beat. Samara Star could be anything but unless there is a significant market move she could be one to wait for on turf.

Of the remainder, Hanafy and Flamingo Rose should get a lot closer than they have to date. Preference of the two would be for Hanafy who is bred for the all weather and ran in a pretty hot novice last time out, albeit well beaten. He can hopefully improve on Mitchell Hunt’s poor record so far with first time cheekpieces and it's a slight shame each way betting is restricted to two places in this as he might have been worth chancing each way (or even place only) at a big price if getting three places. It’s Bascule they all have to beat though.