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Stat of the Day, 24th March 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.30 Naas : Hong Kong @ 10/3 BOG 10th at 3/1 (A little slow into stride, mid-division early, 8th approaching halfway, pushed along straight, tight for room on inner over 2f out, soon one paced) I'm certainly finding the Irish racing much harder to read.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Clonmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, INH Flat race for 5-7yo over 2m2½f on Soft To Heavy ground worth £5,575 to the winner...

Why?...

Timeform say this looks an above-average bumper with our pick setting the standard having finished behind a pair of subsequent winners when third at Fairyhouse last month, one of which was Ferny Hollow, who went on to win the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

Now, as usual, full honest disclosure from me, I don't bet much in Irish races (although that's changing by the day) and I don't get involved in Bumpers too often either, so you can imagine how often I play in Irish Bumpers! That said, I do adopt a quality over quantity position regarding the INH Flat races and one of my starting points are horses trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by Mr JJ Codd (who is in good form right now, as it happens).

I'm particularly interested in the Elliott/Codd bumper runners deemed to "have a shout" by the market, as those sent off shorter than 6/1 are 59 from 156 (37.8% SR) for 3.2pts (+2.1% ROI) profit since the start of 2016. Yes, a whole 2.1% profit! However (a) that's blind profit and (b) a starting point from which I'd always want at least one (if not more) of the following five angles to be at play...

  • 5/6 yr olds are 38/91 (41.8%) for 16.32pts (+17.9%)
  • those finishing in the first four home LTO are 36/85 (42.4%) for 13.4pts (+15.7%)
  • in fields of 10-14 runners, they are 29/63 (46%) for 16.14pts (+25.6%)
  • those rested for 3 weeks to 5 months are 24/57 (42.1%) for 10.61pts (+18.6%)
  • whilst those racing beyond 2m2f are 9/19 (47.4%) for 13.93pts (+73.3%)

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Clonmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!