Double Dutch, 27th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th July 2015

Like the previous days before it, Saturday was another agonisingly frustrating near-miss for us. The horses are there or thereabouts, but we're not quite getting them both over line.

Sweet P was game and gutsy to win at Newcastle, having relinquished the lead with a furlong to go before rallying to get back up just before the line, but her efforts were sadly in vain, as far as the double was concerned at least.

And that's because Prince Gibraltar had earlier failed to hold on at York, being caught and passed by a couple of challengers very late in the piece, meaning nearly but not quite for us double hunters.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Prince Gibraltar : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Custom Cut : 4th at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Sweet P : WON at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Sherry : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
635 winning selections from 2237 = 28.39%
201 winning bets in 580 days = 34.66%

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Stakes: 1159.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +126.81pts (+10.94% ROI)


New week, clean slate etc...

7.50 Galway :

The O'Brien filly Loved is an interesting entrant here, making her handicap debut and just her third start. She's obviously well regarded as she holds a couple of group race entries, and it was at Group 3 level that she was first pitched into action and ultimately well beaten (Pleascach was the winner) over 1m2f, finishing ahead of just one rival.

She was then stepped up to 1m3.5f (just 0.5f shorter than today) for her other run at Limerick, where she won a maiden by half a length ahead of stablemate On A Pedestal to whom she was conceding 7lbs (14lbs inc jockey claims!) and who has since run and won off a mark of 83 (Killarney 12 days ago), suggesting that Loved's opening mark of 86 is workable. She is, admittedly, unproven on soft ground, hence her 4/1 BOG price tag, but that's a decent price based purely on whether she'll get the going!

Dermot Weld's Harasava looks the danger here and also arrives in good form and her runner-up finish two starts ago over 1m4.5f tells us that she'll be fine at this trip, she had a couple of subsequent winners behind her that day and she herself moved on to win next/last time out. She dropped back in trip to 1m2.5f to win by 0.75 lengths at Sligo six weeks ago and has been rested since.

A change of tactics was employed that day and today's jockey Pat Smullen decided to win the race from the front and the tactic proved decisive as they controlled the race from the head of the pack. Drawn in stall 1 today, there's every possibility, they'll try the same thing again and if allowed to dominate early on, Harasava could turn this into a procession at 9/4 BOG.


8.00 Windsor :

The 9yr old mare Choral Festival saves her best work for these spins around Windsor, with 6 of her 11 career victories coming here on this track and with 2 wins coming on the A/W, this is clearly her preferred venue! She's an 8-time winner over today's trip and stats suggest she's well suited by conditions here. I won't list all the reasons, but she's a 4-time C&D winner and field size / ground conditions / time of year / jockey / days since run etc are all favourable.

She comes here off the back of two excellent runs over course and distance, a runner-up (0.75L) on good ground five weeks ago before a win a fortnight ago. She only narrowly beat the favourite (who had beaten her in the previous race!) that day, but with the rest of the field well beaten a 3lb rise doesn't look too onerous and another good run at 5/1 BOG is expected from Choral Festival.

She will, however, have to beat Born To Be Bad if she wants that latest Windsor win. He comes here off the back of two wins and a runner-up finish in this last three outings and was a winner last time out off a mark of 70 in a 3yo handicap. This is an open age race and although he's up 3lbs for that win, he gets a very helpful 10lb weight for age allowance here.

That allowance effectively puts him 7lbs better off than winning run and has a positive jockey switch (IMO) to Richard Hughes who is in great form and has a good record on this track. Born To Be Bad gets the trip, as proven at Doncaster last time out and although the ground conditions are an unknown factor for him, I suspect he'll be the one to beat here at what looks an attractive 7/2 BOG with Coral.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Harasava / Born To Be Bad @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Coral)
Harasava / Choral Festival @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Coral)
Loved / Born To Be Bad @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betfair SB & Coral)
Loved / Choral Festival @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Betfair SB & Coral)

Double Dutch, 28th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th October 2013

I had one of those Eureka days yesterday, where it all just fell into place for me.

Double Seven duly completed his five-timer with a pretty comfortable 5.5 lengths victory at 7/4, which was then followed up by my 8/1 fancy Georgie in the second race.

It was, admittedly, a selection that could have made a fool of me, but...

...I'd liked the look of him all along and I'd backed him as a single bet before putting him in the double, which paid out at a juicy 23.75/1 despite him being backed right in to 100/30 at the off.

He cruised home to win by eleven lengths and to cap it all off, I'd both selections in a 150/1 treble with yesterday's Stat of the Day horse, which was a 5/1 winner.

I mention this, because I know many of you do put the three together like that.

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Yesterday's results were as follows:

Double Seven: won at 7/4
Laganbank: 4th of 6
Georgie: won at 8/1 (SP 100/30!)
Pat Garrett: unplaced

Trial to date:
60 winning selections from 191 = 31.41%
18 winning doubles in 53 days = 33.96%

Stakes: 104.00pts
Returns: 113.93pts

P/L : +9.93pts (+9.55% ROI)

We've given ourselves some clear daylight and also guaranteed that the 8-week extended trial will finish in profit. The worst case scenario will be a small 3.93pts gain, but I've three more opportunities to turn the profits into something more substantial starting with these on a day where finding a couple of suitable races has proven difficult...

2.15 Naas

I've selected this race, because I can't see Rule The World failing to land this at 6/4. He was in excellent form last season, easily winning a Grade 2 hurdle here at Naas at the turn of the year where he eased down to the line and still beat subsequent dual grade 1 winner (including the William Hill Supreme Novice Hurdle!) Champagne Fever by some 40 lengths.

After that win here at Naas, Rule The World also went to Cheltenham too and there he got to within 4 lengths of The New One, which now looks like a very good result indeed. The only blot on his recent record is that he was pulled up last time out, but something was amiss that day and I'm happy to over look it.

My main problem here is finding an alternate pick, but I've plumped for another longshot in the shape of Seskinane, who was a non-runner 8 days when I nominated him for this feature!

Seskinane is expected to continue his progression over hurdles here today. He finished 2nd of 25 on his first attempt at Fairyhouse in April over two miles, before beating all fifteen rivals home to land a maiden at Kilbeggan over 2m 3.5f on soft ground seventeen days later. He was then first past the post at Sligo over 2.5 miles on heavy ground ahead of Willie Mullins' top-class On His Own, but was subsequently disqualified due to the actions of his jockey.

He tackles the same trip and type of going today, so there should be no stamina issues and his run last time out (disregarding the DQ of course!) puts him well above the rest of this field. I think he's the most likely to cause an upset of the five challengers to the favourite and looks a decent E/W punt at 7/1 with William Hill.

3.05 Galway

Where I'd expect the Ballydoyle trained Marchese Marconi to run out a fairly comfortable winner at around 6/4 (BetVictor). Simply put, I think he's the best on show here. He's easily the best on official ratings and with his jockey's 7lb claim taken into consideration, this shouldn't be too difficult for a horse who has won one and been placed three times from his four efforts at this trip.

As with the first race, it's a bit of a lottery to find a back up to the main selection, but I'm going to go with the 10/1 shot Rory O'Moore. Although is overall profile isn't brilliant at 4 wins from 20, he's a triple bumper winner who acts well with some cut in the ground. If anything, it's his jumping that has let him down in the past, so a 1m 6f flat race might well play to his strengths if the favourite fails to shine.

And although he hasn't been at his best over hurdles, he was still considered good enough to be sent out in races at Grades 1 & 2 plus Listed events last winter. If lightning can strike twice after yesterday's 8/1 winner, Rory O'Moore might well get home for us at 10/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rule The World / Marchese Marconi @ 6.25 with Paddy Power
Rule The World / Rory O'Moore @ 27.50 with Bet365 and Coral
Seskinane / Marchese Marconi @ 18.75 with BetVictor
Seskinane / Rory O'Moore @ 88.00 with William Hill!

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2013

An excellent 5/1 winner yesterday to round off a wonderful day for me personally and also for many geegeez readers. Firstly, full credit to Aidan Coleman for coming back from two falls earlier on the card to still have the strength and determination to drive Theatrelands home in a tight finish.

Our selection was slightly behind after the last hurdle but stayed on dourly to get up just before the line and take the race by just a head at an SP of 9/2.

It was a good end to a great day for me as it was the final leg of a 150/1 treble when combined with the  selections in yesterday's Double Dutch, which returned a near 25/1 winning double.

No UK racing today means we're off to Ireland for the...

2.35 Galway

On a difficult day for punting, one horse seems most likely in the 2m 6f slog on soft/heavy ground (depending on whose going report you follow!) and that is Lookoutnow.

The horse comes here for his seasonal reappearance after ending his last campaign in fine style and his full form over the last year reads 313111, so on his best form, he'll be difficult to beat.

Providing he runs well enough first time out after a break, as he has done in the past, then stamina shouldn't be the issue today. He has won at trips of 2m4f up to 2m6.5f, in fact he's 5/1 at that range.

The ground won't bother him either as he's 6/11 on soft/heavy going and today's jockey MP Butler has been on board this horse thirteen times already, so they've a good understanding and when together they have achieved 6 wins and 5 places from those 13 runs and he's also able to take off a useful 3lbs off this top weight today.

I'm of the opinion that he'd be a certainty for an E/W bet, but the odds probably won't allow that today, I'm afraid. So we need to be brave and stick our necks and as such I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Lookoutnow at 4/1 BOG. This price is quite widely available, so I'm reinvesting some of yesterday's BetVictor winnings, but if you prefer to use another bookie...

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Double Dutch, 27th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th October 2013

Sometimes you get it spot on correct and sometimes you're miles off target. Well,  had the proverbial "game of two halves" yesterday.

I absolutely nailed the 4.45 Chepstow, when I discarded the morning favourite (finished 5th of 6) and I advised that Sire De Grugy would beat Majala home. That's exactly how it went and at odds of 7/2 & 5/2, they also provided me with a nice £13.32 forecast (the Exacta paid £12.30)

Unfortunately for the main purpose of this feature, the double was already well down the river, after we'd already blown the earlier race. The beast we could manage was a distant (15 lengths off the pace) third place for Al Alfa, whilst Arthurs Pass was pulled up before the last fence.

Mind you, not many would have predicted the horses that denied us the double would have been priced at 12/1 and 25/1!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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Al Alfa: 3rd at 11/8 (SP 6/5)
Arthurs Pass: pulled up
Sire de Grugy: won at 7/2
Majala: 2nd at 7/2 (SP 5/2)

Trial to date:
58 winning selections from 187 = 31.02%
17 winning doubles in 52 days = 32.69%

Stakes: 102.00pts
Returns: 101.55pts

P/L : -0.45pts (-0.44% ROI)

We've just slipped back into the red, so we're going need some help from these runners across the water today...

3.20 Wexford

Double Seven comes here on the back of four straight wins and despite stepping up in class today still looks the one to beat. He gets the going, has won at the trip (and longer and shorter!) and even an 8lb rise shouldn't stop him going in again at 7/4 with both Boylesports and Paddy Power.

I'd expect Willie Mullins' Laganbank to provide the stiffest opposition here. He might well be on a 4-race losing run, but he has been competing at a much higher level than this and drops back down in class to run here and comes here in good nick.

Although only finishing 4th last time out, he was less than 6 lengths behind the excellent Sizing Europe in a Grade 2 race at Gowran Park three weeks ago and any repeat of that run might see him snatch this at odds of 9/4 (Boylesports & Paddy Power)

4.10 Galway

Pat Garrett is definitely the one to beat here, providing his jumping holds up. On paper he's the best in the race, but has had the odd fall or two of late. He looked to be back towards his best when winning comfortably at Downpatrick nine days, where he was so far clear that his jockey stopped him down to walking pace and still scored by three lengths! It won't be quite so easy today, but he should be a nice winner at 9/4 (Paddy Power)

I don't see much to trouble the selection here, but my alternate is a little bit left field and one of those that will look brilliant if it comes off, but also having the ability to make me look foolish if it doesn't!

You see, I like Georgie as an 8/1 E/W bet with Paddy Power anyway, so my logic is that if he's getting placed anyway, it might well be 1st or 2nd to Pat Garrett!

Georgie, for the record, tends to go well here and has won on this course in the past. he comes here today on the back of a very good run when finishing second at Limerick a fortnight ago and whilst he couldn't get to the winner, he was a good 17 lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. 8/1 BOG represents very good value in my opinion, but time will tell how mad I've been!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with Paddy Power as follows:
Double Seven / Pat Garrett @ 8.94
Double Seven / Georgie @ 24.75
Laganbank / Pat Garrett @ 10.56
Laganbank / Georgie @ 29.25