Posts

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Wincanton : Myplaceatmidnight @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Prominent, led after 3 out, jumped left and not fluent 2 out, not fluent last, headed towards finish and beaten by 0.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darebin 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground, worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding in good form, including winning this very race last year and is 7 from 30 (23.33% SR) in NH races to date, including...

  • 6 wins and 2 places from 24 within a month of his last race
  • 6 wins and a place from 21 ridden by Jamie Moore (more on him shortly)
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 19 going right handed
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 over 1m7½f to 2m
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 13 on Soft ground
  • 5 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 here at Sandown
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 over course and distance in chases.

He's by It's Gone, whose offspring are 14/55 (25.5%) for 78.3pts (+142.3% ROI) in NH contests so far, including...

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 88.3pts (+196.2%) over 1m7½f to 2m1½f
  • 12/44 (27.3%) for 78.9pts (+179.2%) from male runners
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 39.1pts (+170.2%) on soft
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 3.6pts (+19%) over fences
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.2pts (+147.2%) here at Sandown

He is trained by Gary Moore, whose chasers have won 18 of 72 (25% SR) for 54.8pts (+76.1% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012, from which...

  • handicappers are 11/51 (21.6%) for 12.7pts (+24.8%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 16/47 (34%) for 69.3pts (+147.5%)
  • those ridden by Jamie Moore are 13/38 (34.2%) for 35.5pts (+93.5%)
  • over 1m7½f to 2m : 12/32 (37.5%) for 40.4pts (+126.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.2pts (+122.5%)
  • and in March : 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.3pts (+92.1%)

...and 5-7 yr old male handicap chasers ridden by Jamie Moore are 6/15 (40% SR) for 20.5pts (+136.5% ROI) including 2 wins from 2 on Darebin over course and distance!

The above isn't too surprising, as Jamie has ridden 20 winners from 57 (35.1% SR) over fences here at Sandown since 2013, generating profits of 58.4pts at an very attractive ROI of some 102.4% and with today's race in mind, those numbers include...

  • from December to April : 19/47 (40.4%) for 62.4pts (+132.8%)
  • in handicaps : 15/47 (31.9%) for 38.9pts (+82.7%)
  • in fields of 10 or fewer : 19/40 (47.5%) for 66.4pts (+166%)
  • at odds of 10/1 or shorter : 20/38 (52.6%) for 77.4pts (+203.7%)
  • riding for Gary Moore : 12/35 (34.3%) for 36.9pts (+105.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 28.9pts (+131.1%)
  • and over 1m7½f to 2m : 14/21 (66.7%) for 39.5pts (+188.3%)

...from which...Dec-April + 10/1 max + 10 runners max + 1m7½f to 2m = 14/18 (77.8% SR) for 42.5pts (+236.3% ROI), including...

  • for Gary Moore : 8/11 (72.7%) for 23.7pts (+215.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/8 (75%) for 16.6pts (+207%)
  • for Gary Moore at Class 3 : 3/5 (60%) for 8.82pts (+176.4%)
  • and for Gary Moore at Class 3 from 2015-19 : 3/3 (100%) for 10.82pts (+360.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darebin 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2018

Friday's Runner was...

3.25 Ayr : Charmant @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leader, challenged 3 out, every chance 2 out, no extra from last.

And now we turn to Saturday's...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m juvenile handicap hurdle (4yo) on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?

Just four runs to date for this four year old, but he was placed at Class 2 and won at Class 4, before being fairly well beaten in two Gr 2 contests, but there's no disgrace in that and he now takes a considerable drop back in class today for his handicap debut.

His trainer Gary Moore is 25 from 170 (14.7% SR) for 111.8pts (+65.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • males at 23/155 (14.8%) for 118.1pts (+76.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4f : 23/108 (21.3%) for 154.2pts (+142.8%)
  • over hurdles : 12/80 (15%) for 96.4pts (+120.5pts)
  • ridden by Jamie Moore : 15/65 (23.1%) for 35.9pts (+55.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/52 (17.3%) for 60.8pts (+116.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 7/48 (14.6%) for 34.1pts (+71%)
  • in Juvenile races : 5/19 (26.3%) for 45pts (+236.9%)
  • in March : 4/19 (21.1%) for 31.1pts (+163.9%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Moore in juvenile races are 4/12 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+169.7%)

Furthermore, Gary's NH handicap debutants are 8 from 55 (14.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+64.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 .

And finally for today, 3-5 yr old hurdlers sired by Racinger are 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 2.02pts (+20.9% ROI) when sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter over trips of 2m/2m0.5f.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

8.45 Wolverhampton : Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/1 Mid-division, headway over 3f out, soon driven to chase leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on to dispute 3rd final furlong, no chance with runaway winner.

We start a new week via Monday's...

3.15 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Stoical Patient @ 2/1

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £2,469 to the winner...

On a day that looks pretty poor fare with few statistical angles about horses at reasonable prices, I'll keep it fairly simple and hope to get out ahead...

We're going with this 8 yr old mare who is 3 from 3 (all in handicap chases ridden by today's jockey jamie Moore) since a switch of yards to Gary Moore's stables. Of those three runs/wins, all three are at Class 5, all were by margins of 6 lengths or more, two came at this venue and one over today's 2m4f trip, so she can be expected to at least like the conditions.

Meanwhile, Gary Moore's runners at Class 4 to 6 over 1m6f to 3m1.5f here at Fontwell over the last six years are 41/277 (14.8% SR) for profits of 54.4pts (+19.6% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 24/166 (14.5%) for 34.4pts (+20.7%)
  • same class race as LTO : 24/149 (16.1%) for 10.5pts (+7%)
  • ridden by jamie Moore : 24/144 (16.7%) for 5.83pts (+4.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 12/68 (17.7%) for 31.9pts (+47%)
  • 31-60 days since last run : 9/51 (17.7%) for 58.8pts (+115.3%)
  • and 8 yr olds are 4/30 (13.3%) for 22.8pts (+76%)

AND...from the above...Gary Moore / Jamie Moore / Class 4 to 6 handicaps / 1m6f to 3m1.5f / Fontwell / 2012 to 2017 / same class as LTO = 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 18.5pts (+39.3% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 11.86pts (+74.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stoical Patient @ 2/1 which was offered by Ladbrokes, SportPesa, 10Bet & Marathon at 5.40pm on Sunday, but please take the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 if you can, like I've done! And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

8.45 Wolverhampton : Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/1 Mid-division, headway over 3f out, soon driven to chase leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on to dispute 3rd final furlong, no chance with runaway winner.

We start a new week via Monday's...

3.15 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stoical Patient @ 2/1

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £2,469 to the winner...

On a day that looks pretty poor fare with few statistical angles about horses at reasonable prices, I'll keep it fairly simple and hope to get out ahead...

We're going with this 8 yr old mare who is 3 from 3 (all in handicap chases ridden by today's jockey jamie Moore) since a switch of yards to Gary Moore's stables. Of those three runs/wins, all three are at Class 5, all were by margins of 6 lengths or more, two came at this venue and one over today's 2m4f trip, so she can be expected to at least like the conditions.

Meanwhile, Gary Moore's runners at Class 4 to 6 over 1m6f to 3m1.5f here at Fontwell over the last six years are 41/277 (14.8% SR) for profits of 54.4pts (+19.6% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 24/166 (14.5%) for 34.4pts (+20.7%)
  • same class race as LTO : 24/149 (16.1%) for 10.5pts (+7%)
  • ridden by jamie Moore : 24/144 (16.7%) for 5.83pts (+4.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 12/68 (17.7%) for 31.9pts (+47%)
  • 31-60 days since last run : 9/51 (17.7%) for 58.8pts (+115.3%)
  • and 8 yr olds are 4/30 (13.3%) for 22.8pts (+76%)

AND...from the above...Gary Moore / Jamie Moore / Class 4 to 6 handicaps / 1m6f to 3m1.5f / Fontwell / 2012 to 2017 / same class as LTO = 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 18.5pts (+39.3% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 11.86pts (+74.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stoical Patient @ 2/1 which was offered by Ladbrokes, SportPesa, 10Bet & Marathon at 5.40pm on Sunday, but please take the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 if you can, like I've done! And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2015

Saturday's Result :

1.10 Lingfield : Alder Mairi @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/1 (Made all, went right 3rd, clear from 4 out, went left last, stayed on strongly to win by 12 lengths)

Monday's selection runs in the...

1.50 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reblis @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2010 at odds of 7/1 and shorter, trainer Gary Moore's runners here at Plumpton are 47/168 (28% SR) for 42.5pts (+25.3% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • males are 45/147 (28.7% SR) for 47.8pts (+30.5% ROI)
  • top 6 finishers LTO are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 50.5pts (+35.3% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-5 to 11-9 are 41/131 (31.3% SR) for 53.9pts (+41.1% ROI)
  • handicappers are 26/108 (24.1% SR) for 36.8pts (+34.1% ROI)
  • those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 23/66 (34.8% SR) for 52.4pts (+79.5% ROI)
  • those ridden by Joshua Moore are 20/57 (35.1% SR) for 42.1pts (+73.9% ROI)
  • chasers are 16/55 (29.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+33.4% ROI)
  • handicap chasers are 12/44 (27.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+46.5% ROI)

The trainer's son, Joshua Moore, also has a good record here at Plumpton, winning 10 of his 32 (31.25% SR) rides here, producing 17.5pts (+54.6% ROI) profit over fences here, of which he's 10/24 (41.7% SR) for 25.5pts (+106.2% ROI) for his dad, Gary and together they are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 24.9pts (+131.2% ROI) in handicap chases here.

And today they team up with Reblis, who is 3 from 8 here over fences, of which he's 3 from 5 on soft / heavy ground. He's also 2 from 4 over 3m2f with both wins coming from his two runs on soft ground at this trip.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 11.30pm?

A 1pt win bet on Reblis @ 5/2 BOG with a number of firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2015

Saturday's Result :

1.10 Lingfield : Alder Mairi @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/1 (Made all, went right 3rd, clear from 4 out, went left last, stayed on strongly to win by 12 lengths)

Monday's selection runs in the...

1.50 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reblis @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2010 at odds of 7/1 and shorter, trainer Gary Moore's runners here at Plumpton are 47/168 (28% SR) for 42.5pts (+25.3% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • males are 45/147 (28.7% SR) for 47.8pts (+30.5% ROI)
  • top 6 finishers LTO are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 50.5pts (+35.3% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-5 to 11-9 are 41/131 (31.3% SR) for 53.9pts (+41.1% ROI)
  • handicappers are 26/108 (24.1% SR) for 36.8pts (+34.1% ROI)
  • those who last ran 16 to 30 days ago are 23/66 (34.8% SR) for 52.4pts (+79.5% ROI)
  • those ridden by Joshua Moore are 20/57 (35.1% SR) for 42.1pts (+73.9% ROI)
  • chasers are 16/55 (29.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+33.4% ROI)
  • handicap chasers are 12/44 (27.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+46.5% ROI)

The trainer's son, Joshua Moore, also has a good record here at Plumpton, winning 10 of his 32 (31.25% SR) rides here, producing 17.5pts (+54.6% ROI) profit over fences here, of which he's 10/24 (41.7% SR) for 25.5pts (+106.2% ROI) for his dad, Gary and together they are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 24.9pts (+131.2% ROI) in handicap chases here.

And today they team up with Reblis, who is 3 from 8 here over fences, of which he's 3 from 5 on soft / heavy ground. He's also 2 from 4 over 3m2f with both wins coming from his two runs on soft ground at this trip.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 11.30pm?

A 1pt win bet on Reblis @ 5/2 BOG with a number of firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2015

Basford Ben certainly ran his race yesterday, but just ran out of steam late on and faded out of contention in the closing stages.

He was sent off at the same 4/1 odds as we'd advised and raced fairly prominently if a little wide throughout, before dropping away to 4th place from 2 out.

A switch away from jumping for Friday's pick who runs in the...

3.35 Lingfield:

A Class 5 handicap over 7 furlongs and a 5/2 BOG bet on Gary Moore's Freddy with a Y, who runs under a 6lb penalty for a win in a similar contest at Brighton on Tuesday.

Gary Moore's record in Class 4 & 5 flat handicaps at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 reads as 53 winners from 234 runners (22.7% SR) for 42.6pts (+18.2% ROI) since 2008, which bears well for this race.

Officially, Freddy with a Y is up 6lbs (OR) for that win earlier in the week, but the booking of a 5lb claimer negates most of that rise and confidence in the selection is buoyed by the following stat, which is far less complicated than it looks...

...Horses who won last time out (1 to 5 days ago) and now run at a trip no more than 1 furlong (up or down!) different, at the same class or 1 higher and off a mark 0 to 7lbs higher than last time out are 178/542 (32.8% SR) for 94.9pts (+17.5% ROI).

With today's race in mind, that 178/542 can be broken down as follows :

Those priced 7/4 to 13/2 : 102/327 (31.2% SR) for 123.6pts (+37.8% ROI)
Running at same class as LTO : 127/360 (35.3% SR) for 72.7pts (+20.2% ROI)
Running at the same trip as LTO : 133/404 (32.9% SR) for 69.9pts (+17.3% ROI)
OR 6lbs higher than LTO : 108/341 (31.7% SR) for 67.7pts (+19.9% ROI)

And those, like Freddy with a Y, running as the same class and trip as last time out, off a mark 6lbs higher than last time and now priced at 7/4 to 11/2 are 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 33.6pts (+34.6% SR)

We're not going to rich off the back of this selection, but I think we've a great chance of collecting from a 5/2 BOG bet on Freddy with a Y today and I've placed my bet with Bet365, but several other bookies are offering the same price, as you'll see by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

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Stat of the Day, 9th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2015

Medieval Chapel was by no means disgraced on both his handicapping and chasing debut at Leicester and he'll certainly come on for having had the run. He was well backed (11/4 fav from our advised 4/1), so we'd got the value price, but not the win, as we had to settle for third place, beaten by around 8 lengths after tiring/weakening late on.

We approach the weekend still looking for a first winner of the week (we did lose two days, though!) and our quest now takes us to the...

3.05 Huntingdon:

Where it's a family affair with Joshua Moore riding the 100/30 BOG priced Gores Island for his father Gary in this Class 3 Handicap chase over 2m 4.5f on soft ground with the prospect of more rain in the air.

Gary Moore has a good record here at Huntingdon...

Since 2008, he has had 23 winners from just 150 runners, a 15.3% record yielding 46.8pts prfotis from 1pt level stakes at an ROI of 31.2%. In handicaps he is 14/84 (16.7% SR) for 39.9pts (+47.5% ROI) and his chasers have won 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 19.4pts (+38% ROI).

He's only had 32 handicap chasers here at this track, but a 15.6% strike rate via 5 winners is respectable, as are the 20.6pts profits at an ROI of 64.3%. And his three such runners last year (2014) finished 211.

Gores Island was a winner just 4 days ago...

And since 2008, chasers turned back out within 5 days of a win have won 106 of 298 (35.6% SR) races for level stakes profits of 100.5pts (+33.7% ROI) with those in the 2/1 to 9/12 price band winning 42 of 142 (29.6% SR) for 66.3pts (+46.7% ROI)

And more specifically to our trainer...

Gary Moore's chasers who won last time out followed up with another win in 35 of 101 (34.7% SR) attempts since 2008. These winners have produced 70.3pts profit at an ROI of 69.6% with Joshua Moore riding 6 winners from 24 (25% SR) for 12.4pts (+51.6% ROI) profit

Those sent off at 8/1 or shorter were victorious 33 times from 80 (41.25% SR) for 62.2pts (+77.8% ROI) profit and from those 80 runners, jockey Joshua's contribution was 6 winners from 17 (35.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+114.1% ROI) profit.

Gores Island now steps back up in class...

Since 2008, Gary has had 134 chasers making a realistic step (ie 1 grade) up in class and the 24 winning runners provides a very healthy 17.9% strike rate and attractive level stakes profits of 45.5pts or 33.9% of stakes. Joshua's own record on these runners is 5 wins from 30 (16.7% SR) for 9.8pts (+32.6% ROI)

Those stepping up to today's Class 3 level have won 16 out of 66 races (24.2%SR) for profits of 54.3pts (+82.2% ROI) with Joshua riding 4 winners from 12 (33.3% SR) for 19.9pts (+166.1% ROI).

As for Gores Island in relation to this race...

He has won twice in Class 3 company and his last 6 runs at this level have finished 132213. He's 3 from 10 since moving to the Moore yard, has a good record in smaller fields and has won two and placed in two from five January runs in his career.

He's equally at home right handed or left handed and won't mind the softness of the ground, he has won on heavy ground in the past and also has wins at both 2m4f and 2m5f.

It's a competitive enough race for sure, but Gores Island is bang in form (131 in his last three outings with the defeat coming after a 6 month break), he gets on well with jockey Joshua (1322F1 and was clear when falling 2 from home) and there's enough in the stats to warrant the selection.

So the play for Friday is a 1pt win bet on Gores Island at 100/30 BOG with either Boylesports or Paddy Power and you can take your pick, right after you...

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Stat of the Day, 13th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2014

I'm not entirely sure what caused the situation to arise, but Lord of the Storm was left with far too much to do and in a poor racing position at Wolverhampton on Friday evening. He had to be pulled back slightly and switched outside for run, but by this time, the race was (in my eyes) gone.

He stayed on strongly and made up a fair bit of ground, but hadn't set off early/quick enough to catch leaders. The end result was a third place finish, beaten by three parts of a length. Once again, we smashed SP, taking 3/1 about a 7/4 fav, but that's scant consolation at present.

I'd love to end the week with a winner and we're off chasing in a less than leafy Surrey for the...

12.20 Lingfield:

And a family affair with Joshua Moore riding the 3/1 BOG shot Tothemoonandback for his father Gary in this energy sapping Class 3 Handicap chase over three miles on heavy ground.

Gary has a good record here at Lingfield...

In NH races since the start of 2009, Gary has saddled up 14 winners from his 107 runners, with the resultant 13.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 12.7pts at an ROI of 11.9%.

In handicap contests, the figures are 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) for 32.2pts (+55.6% ROI) profit, whilst in chase events there have been 8 winners from 40 (20% SR) runners for 38.2pts (+95.6% ROI) profit. Gary's handicap chasers are 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 44.6pts (+139.2% ROI) here at Lingfield with Joshua riding 5 of those winners from just 11 attempts (45.5% SR), which in turn have generated 21.5pts profit at an ROI of 195.1%.

Tothemoonandback was a winner last time out...

And Gary Moore's chasers who won last time out followed up with another win in 17 of 63 (27% SR) attempts since 2008. These winners have produced 35.5pts profit at an ROI of 56.4%, whilst those sent off at 8/1 or shorter were victorious 16 times from 45 (35.6% SR) for 38.8pts (+86.1% ROI) profit.

That latest win came at Huntingdon 32 days ago and Gary's who won LTO and then raced again after a period of 16-45 days won again in 13 of 35 (37.1% SR) races with the profits of 50.7pts equating to 144.8% of all stakes and if we applied that same 8/1 odds cap as earlier, we're left with 12 winners from 25 (48% SR) for 45.9pts (+183.7% ROI). From those 25 runners, jockey Joshua's contribution was 5 winners from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.2pts (+315.1% ROI) profit.

Tothemoonandback now steps up in class...

Since 2008, Gary has had 161 chasers making a realistic step up in class and the 27 winning runners provides a very healthy 16.8% strike rate and attractive level stakes profits of 67.9pts or 42.2% of stakes. Joshua's own record on these runners is 6 wins from 34 (17.7% SR) for 12.5pts (+36.8% ROI)

Those stepping up to today's Class 3 level have won 16 out of 68 races (23.5%SR) for profits of 52.3pts (+76.9% ROI) with Joshua riding 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) for 21.9pts (+219.3% ROI)

Tothemoonandback is seeking a hat-trick of wins today, having won on his seasonal reappearance at Plumpton (3m2f, heavy) 40 days ago, despite being off the track for almost 13 months. He's still unexposed as a chaser with today being just his fifth crack at fences in almost 20 months, but his record so far is impressive at 3211.

He's won on both soft and heavy ground and has won at today's 3m trip and also at two furlongs further, so the mud and the distance shouldn't be an issue here today. All things considered, I fancy him to cope with a 4lb rise in weight to land this here today, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Tothemoonandback at a widely available 3/1 BOG. I'm using Boylesports for my wager, but feel free to take your pick of the bookies, after you...

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