Tag Archive for: Gavin Cromwell

Irish Trainers in UK National Hunt Racing

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As we start a New Year, I want to examine the performance of Irish trainers when they send runners to the UK, writes Dave Renham. The focus of what follows is National Hunt racing, and I have taken data going back ten years, to 2015. Profits/losses are calculated to both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

Now, I am sure virtually everyone reading this will be aware of the excellent record of Irish trainers versus the British trainers at the Cheltenham Festival in recent years. So let's begin by reviewing this. Subsequently, I will delve deeply into the broader picture to see if there are any angles that, as punters, we may be able to take advantage of.

Cheltenham Festival

This four-day feast of racing will be upon us sooner than we think – March may be two months away, but the time soon flies by. Below is an overall table directly comparing the Irish trainer record at the Cheltenham Festival with their British counterparts.

 

 

It's hardly breaking news, but the Irish have been so dominant in this time frame; they have a much higher strike rate - well over double - and in terms of returns they have trounced the British in at both SP and BSP. It should be noted that Irish trainers outperformed British ones in the ten years prior to that (2005 to 2014), too, but the gap was closer, certainly in terms of win percentage (Irish won 7.9% of races compared to 4.6% for the British).

 

It's time now to start a deeper dive into the overall Irish performance. To begin with here are the stats for all Irish runners in the UK since 2015:

 

 

As the table indicates, there have been blind losses to SP of around 17 pence in the £, but a small 4p return to BSP. Taking the Cheltenham Festival out of the equation produces a small loss to BSP.

Time to drill down into the Irish / UK performance across different parameters...

 

Performance by Year

From this starting point I am going to look at some yearly data. For this I have used a method based on a Nick Mordin idea that I've previously used in recent draw bias articles; this approach helps to avoid individual year fluctuations which can make possible performance changes harder to pick up. I am using rolling four-year timeframes to help spot any patterns. Here are the four-yearly data in terms of returns to BSP.

 

 

The graph shows each four-yearly time frame has produced a profit to BSP which is clearly noteworthy. However, the last couple of years (2023 and 2024) have been losers, hence the recent drop in the 2021-2024 figures. It looks as though the market has now fully 'cottoned on' to current Irish dominance.

Here are the A/E indices using the same principle:

 

The highest A/E index of 0.95 was seen in the period from 2018 to 2021 which coincides with the best period in terms of Betfair SP returns. Also, the recent BSP drop off is mirrored here.

Taking this performance as a whole, the stats are impressive. Irish raiders have consistently made punters money over the past ten years if betting on the exchanges. Of course, there are plenty of big prices that help to inflate these results but, even so, the results are highly noteworthy.

 

Performance by Course

We have seen some course data already in terms of Cheltenham, and its Festival in March. Below are the overall Cheltenham course figures along with any other course that has seen 100 or more Irish runners during this ten-year time frame.

 

 

All of the Cheltenham BSP profit was procured at the Festival. A very small loss has occurred when combining all other Cheltenham meetings together.

In terms of the other courses Aintree is one to mention: runners at the Liverpool track have done extremely well considering the BSP profit is not badly skewed by big priced winners. Indeed, focusing on Irish runners at Aintree priced at 8/1 or less (industry odds), they would have produced a profit to both SP and BSP. Specifically, 57 of them won from 246 qualifiers (SR 23.2%) for an SP profit of £21.86 (ROI +8.9%); to BSP profits were £53.19 (ROI +21.7%). As you would expect a big proportion of these runners ran at the Grand National meeting in April.

Of the lower profile courses, Perth’s positive BSP figures are entirely down to one 200/1+ BSP winner, while Cartmel’s figures are not as bad as you may initially think. When concentrating on horses priced 8/1 or less at SP, Cartmel runners have also seen a small profit to BSP to the tune of £10.05 (ROI +5.2%). The outsiders at Cartmel have been the ones to avoid with 0 wins from 75 for horses priced 14/1 or bigger.

 

Performance by Race type

I would like to compare chases, hurdle races and bumpers (NH Flat) next. Here are the splits:

 

 

 

Hurdle races have produced a healthy profit to BSP, although as one would expect this has included a few big odds successes. There have been five wins at 100/1+ BSP to be precise and all hurdlers priced in three figures have combined to produce around 75% of the hurdling profit. Having said all that, six of the ten years has seen a blind hurdling profit to BSP with two of the four losing years showing very small losses. Focusing on shorter priced runners of 12/1 or shorter would have seen a break-even scenario. Hence, it is fair to say Irish hurdlers have performed well as an overall group. Before moving away from this section, both non-handicaps and handicaps have offered positive hurdling returns. Non-handicappers have returned 16p in the £, handicappers 9p.

 

Performance by Industry SP

A look at the results in terms of SP prices now.

 

 

There have been only small losses for shorter priced runners (5/2 or shorter). One can surmise that with a little bit of additional form study one could probably have narrowed down this group of runners in terms of which ones to back, with the potential to edge into profit as a result.

At the other end of the spectrum, horses priced 28/1 or bigger would have secured a very big profit if backing them all to Betfair SP. This will come as no surprise based on the information shared to date in this article about some big prices having gone in. While I am sure many of you are writing off the idea of backing such big-priced runners due to the fact that for such a method to work you probably need let’s say those monster 100/1+ winners hitting the mark more than they statistically should; or at least the prices of most of the winners offering value. However, the point is that one or both of the above has happened.

If we compare the results of horses priced 28/1+ in terms of British runners versus Irish runners, we see that British horses have won less than 1% of the time (0.97%) and produced losses of 56p in the £ to SP, and losses of 20p in the £ to BSP. Irish-trained runners priced 28/1+, as the figures in the table show, have won over 1.7 times more often than their British counterparts and the returns have been better by 39p and 63p in the £ respectively.

Of course, it takes a brave person with a large betting bank playing to small stakes to back very big odds runners regularly. Huge losing runs undermine confidence and if the tank is not set up appropriately, it could easily run dry. However, I found that this has not been a one-off after checking the record of Irish runners priced 28/1 or bigger from an earlier time frame (2008 to 2014). I haven’t gone back further in time because 2008 was the first full year that the Betfair Starting Price was used. Overall, during these seven years the bigger priced Irish raiders won 1.51% of the time (17 wins from 1127) for a profit to BSP of £725.31 (ROI +64.4%). Excellent overall returns once again – hence I am wondering whether anyone might be tempted to back such runners in the future. I, for one, will be keeping tabs on it.

 

Performance by Race Class

I want now to assess the class of race and whether it makes any difference either positively or negatively with regards to Irish performance in UK NH racing. Let me share the Betfair SP Return on Investment percentages (ROI%):

 

 

The chart has the highest classes of race on the left, starting with Class 1 races, moving through to the lowest class of race on the right, namely Class 6. It seems the better the class of race the more profitable for backers of Irish runners. Put simply, the highest three classes have produced profits, the lowest three losses. The BSP results for the two lowest Classes (5 and 6) have produced significant losses and it looks best to avoid these races.

If we look into Class 1 races in more depth, we see that Irish runners in all three types of Graded race (1, 2 and 3) have made a profit.

 

 

Don’t be put off by the low Grade 3 win strike rate as these contests, all handicaps, have averaged 20 runners per race over the past ten years. The class / graded data suggests to me that the Irish target the better races with higher prize money. That makes sense given the travelling costs and so on.

Before moving on I want to compare these Graded results to the record of British-trained runners during this period. Firstly, let me compare the strike rates, both win and each way:

 

 

Irish runners are ahead in all six comparisons and significantly so in Grade 1 and 2 contests. Now let me compare their A/E indices:

 

Again, the Irish runners have been completely dominant over their British counterparts offering better value across the board.

 

Performance by trainer

Trainer data is always popular so I will share the results for all Irish trainers who have sent 100+ runners to contest UK National Hunt races during this time frame, as long as they had at least one runner in 2024. The table is ordered by win strike rate.

 

 

The big guns of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have sent a significant number of runners across the pond with good success. However, making a profit from either is not so easy due to their reputations; rheir runners do not go unbacked very often.

A few trainers in the list have shown a profit to BSP, but Gavin Cromwell and John McConnell’s results are the most impressive as they have not had a huge BSP winner to skew their results. Here are some additional stats for these two starting with Cromwell:

1. Cromwell has sent 36 runners to the Cheltenham Festival during the study period, of which six won (SR 16.7%) for a profit to SP of £20.63 (ROI +57.3%). This increases if backing to BSP to the tune of £36.20 (ROI +100.5%)

2. Sticking with Cheltenham, Cromwell's record at all other meetings at the course stands at 10 wins from 45 (SR 22.2%). Profits to SP have been £7.60 (ROI +16.9%), to BSP £11.36 (ROI +25.2%)

3. LTO winners from the stable have fared exceptionally well thanks to a 25% strike rate (16 wins from 64). Returns to SP were nearly 66p in the £, to BSP this increases to over 90p

4. Horses that started in the top two of the betting won 33 times from 105 runners (SR 31.4%) for a profit to SP of £8.74 (ROI +8.3%); to BSP £15.34 (ROI +14.6%)

 

Now onto McConnell:

1. Horses that finished in the first three LTO have been worth following thanks to 50 wins from 167 runners (SR 29.9%) for an SP profit of £23.22 (ROI +13.9%). To BSP this improves to £46.15 (ROI +27.6%)

2. McConnell's male runners have won almost twice as often as his female runners (26.6% versus 13.7%)

3. Horses that started favourite made a small SP profit of £8.16 (ROI +10.2%) thanks to a strike rate of 52.5% (42 wins from 80). Returns to BSP have edged up to just over 14p in the £

4. Hexham has been a good course for McConnell with 11 wins from 22 (SR 50%). He is only one win from 24 at the Cheltenham Festival, but at all other Cheltenham meetings combined he has saddled 10 winners from 44 (SR 22.7%) for an SP profit to £26.88 (ROI +61.1%); to BSP +£43.06 (ROI +97.9%)

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I hope this article has offered up some potential betting angles on Irish runners. It is widely known how well Irish runners perform at the Cheltenham Festival, but they also have competed extremely well at Aintree. In fact, Irish-trained horses' performance at Aintree is arguably more impressive than it has been at Cheltenham.

Bigger priced runners sent from Ireland to UK should not be totally written off as far more have won than statistically they should. Graded events have seen the Irish enjoy a clear advantage over British-trained runners, while the lower classes of 5 and 6 are generally races to avoid from an Irish perspective. There are two trainers that are worth keeping a particular eye on, namely John McConnell and Gavin Cromwell.

We have all heard the saying ‘the luck of the Irish’ but I think in UK NH racing terms there is a good bit more to it than that.

- DR

Monday Musings: My Idea of the National Winner is…

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It’s a horrible thought, but if all the horses eligible to run before today’s five-day stage for the Randox Grand National stood their ground and then took up the engagement on Thursday morning, only six of the drastically reduced field this year, from 40 to 34, will be trained in the UK, writes Tony Stafford.

Even more salutary, between them, Gordon Elliott (ten) and Willie Mullins (eight) will have more than a 50% chance of knocking off the £500,000 first prize and the better than acceptable place money from second, £200k, down to five grand for tenth.

The inertia once horses get to a certain level – and this time there’s no fault being found about handicapping on either side of the Irish Sea - means it takes a lot for, say, a 150-rated animal to drop out of his guaranteed place in the line-up from year to year. That’s why they race so infrequently – where else can you have a shot at half a million?

The lucky six this time would be supplemented if the big two fine down their options. Six of the next ten are trained over here so it could at least bring, if not a level playing field, one that offers a hint of promise. Of the guaranteed sextet, connections of the 11-year-old Latenightpass will be on a winner even before the gelding lines up.

Fourth under multiple champion and overall point-to-point lady record holder Gina Andrews in last year’s Foxhunters at the National meeting over the same fences, the gelding will be her first ride in a Grand National. He’s safely in on 24, and Gina, the multiple point-to-point champion and by far the winning-most lady rider in that sphere, rides the family gelding for husband Tom Ellis, king of the point-to-point trainers.

In racecard order as they stood this morning, the top two from the UK are number 3 Nassalam and number 8 Corach Rambler. After his excellent third behind Galopin Des Champs in last month’s Gold Cup, Corach Rambler is only a 4/1 shot to repeat last year’s victory for Lucinda Russell. Nassalam concedes him 2lb because of two spectacular performances around Chepstow in December but was then pulled up in the Gold Cup, so the market’s preference is understandable.

But such was Nassalam’s astonishing demolition job on the Welsh Grand National field in his last race before Cheltenham – unfortunately causing Gary Moore’s gelding that abrupt jump in his rating – he must be a contender especially as we’ll be having heavy ground bar a miracle with the weather by Saturday.

Nassalam also looked good around the big Aintree fences in the autumn, staying on well from a long way back in the Grand Sefton over a woefully inadequate 2m5f, gathering momentum as the race neared its climax. He’s one of the best equipped to handle both ground and distance in the field and although he did carry a big weight in the 3m6f Welsh National, his mark soared another 16lb after that.

I reckon every 1lb will be worth two under these conditions, so with regret I’ve been looking down the list. Sadly, apart from the obvious claims of Corach Rambler – and repeat winners aren’t exactly unheard of - even if the ground might not be totally to his liking, I’ve landed on an Irish contender.

The same age as Nassalam, that’s seven, and significantly the 2022 winner Noble Yeats was also that age at the time, I find it hard to get away from the Gavin Cromwell-trained and, need I say it, J P McManus-owned mare Limerick Lace.

Limerick Lace would be the first of her sex to win the race since 1951 and indeed only three mares, Shannon Lass (James Hackett) in 1902, 1948 Sheila’s Cottage (40/1) trained by Nevile Crump, and Nickel Coin (50/1) for Jack O’Donoghue, won the race in the entire 20th Century. It will take something special to quell that statistic but maybe Limerick Lace is that entity.

She had the effrontery to intrude on Elliott’s second most heinous action as a trainer when he supplied 14 of the 20 runners in Navan’s Troytown Chase in November. Limerick Lace didn’t win the three-miler on heavy ground but got within a couple of lengths of Coko Beach, who did, a fair old run for a 6yo.

She will meet Coko Beach on 2lb better terms, fair enough, and equally being put up 6lb for that was entirely understandable. But she’s run twice and won twice since then, both in the UK. Firstly, she came over to Doncaster for a mares’ chase and bolted up by six lengths with her mark already on the 147 allotted after Navan, and that remained unchanged.

Then she took in the Grade 2 2m5f Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham last month and won it nicely from Willie Mullins’ Dinoblue, who was rated 13lb her superior. Cromwell’s mare did a touch of tail-flashing but showed plenty of resolution and her official mark is now 153, but a bargain 147 for this early closing race only.

In all she has five wins from ten starts over fences with three seconds and a third as back-up. I’m going for a rarity, but one that did happen twice in the first five years of my life – I wasn’t out quite in time for Shannon Lass! Limerick Lace to beat Nassalam and Corach Rambler.

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My copy of Horses in Training finally came on Friday and I’ve enjoyed trying to work out which stable has the most horses, which isn’t as easy as it sounds. Inevitably, we have to guess a bit as two of the biggest strings each year decline sending full lists. The Gosdens have 149 three-year-olds and up but are keeping their two-year-olds a secret while Richard Fahey won’t tell us a thing.

Generally, the boys with more than 200 in their care are the ones that will be challenging for top honours most of the time. But while not yet at that rarified atmosphere numerically, one intriguing name which has a lasting place in Grand National history, is undergoing a re-vamp.

I noticed his list on first skim through but then when wanting to look again, couldn’t find it. The book is in alphabetical order, but Dr Richard Newland and joint licensee Jamie Insole are sandwiched between Tina Jackson and Iain Jardine.

Ten years ago, I backed the doctor’s Grand National winner, Pineau De Re. Now he and Jamie have 100 horses in their care and are obviously going much more seriously at the flat. Last year’s 73 were all older horses. This time, of their 100, 20 are juveniles and all bar one was acquired at the sales, at prices between 16 grand and 110k.

They joined forces late last season, by the end of which they had four wins from their first six runners on the flat. A further four have come at the more sustainable rate of ten per cent this year. The jumpers have provided the partnership with five wins from 77 runs. Until the switch-around, Dr Newland alone had 18 jumps wins from 158 runners.

Insole, 26, is from an Irish family with plenty of NH riding history behind it. He grew up, some might say, curiously in Billericay in deepest Essex but has been involved in the sport for most of his life from adolescence. After jobs with such as Alan King, he went the whole hog into flat racing as a pupil assistant to Charlie Hills.

Of all the stables that have caught my attention, in Grand National week I can’t stop thinking that if someone like the doctor (and his owners) have invested the best part of £1million at the sales to get this embryo partnership under way, they must have the utmost faith in their new recruit. I can’t wait for their first juvenile runner. Royal Ascot maybe?

- TS

Tony Keenan meets Feidhlim Cunningham

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Feidhlim Cunningham – From Trading Room to Training Yard

Racing and betting can be uncomfortable bedfellows, especially if you listen to some trainers about bookmakers, but the association does not seem to bother Champion Hurdle-winning handler Gavin Cromwell. Instead, Cromwell has been using the relationship to his advantage, employing former Paddy Power odds complier Feidhlim Cunningham as his race planner since 2018, writes Tony Keenan.

The pair first met in 2016 when Cunningham acquired Bottleofsmoke, a nine-race maiden, out of a Dundalk claimer in July that year. “He was rated 45 when we got him and we were thrilled to get him up to 68 and I got to know Gavin through that. We were plotting a course with him so I’d ring him and say there’s a race in four or five weeks that would suit and he always seemed appreciative of that. I hadn’t a clue about the training side but it worked well and he also managed to get a win out of a limited bumper horse at Stratford that I had with a few friends.”

Like many before him, Cunningham got into racing at college where he was a self-described ‘maths nerd’ but spent most of his time in University College Galway punting. After that, there were two years at a spread betting firm where the learning curve was steep. “You had to be so accurate there. At Powers, you could be 5’s about something that should be 10’s but you weren’t getting filled in by being too short on it whereas with the spreads, punters can lay the other side of it.”

There followed five years of odds compiling at Powers where he did “mainly Irish racing… learning plenty from the more experienced lads and as you watch racing everyday, your race reading improves.” He loved working there, “I was dying to go into work and did all the extra hours going”, but at the end of 2017 felt it was time for a change. That was where Cromwell came in and asked him if he wanted to place a few horses and two years later he’s still there.

A typical day for the racing manager starts on the gallops for first lot; this is a relatively new development as he tries to improve his knowledge of the pure training side. Cunningham is at pains to point out that his job is “racing manager rather than assistant trainer… my knowledge of the physical animal would be limited compared to lads working them their whole lives; I know that and Gavin knows that, I’m there to do the job of form.”

“From there, it’s back to the office for declarations at 10am, booking jockeys, declaring headgear, doing the entries for five or six days ahead before liaising with owners about their horses.”

Some parts of the job are not all that different from his previous occupation: “I’d be half pricing races up in my head and trying to rate them one to five in terms of quality to see what our best option is. I try to have a good idea what engagement we will take up from weights stage, the day after declarations while also keeping an eye on other horses’ entries.”

Other parts of the job are just “a lot of boring office stuff like vaccinations” but he often goes racing when the trainer needs representation; that can be a very nice part of the job when things work out, not so much when there is some explaining to do. Dealing with owners is something he enjoys, some of whom will take an active interest in placing their horses, while his background in the betting industry can be useful for those inclined towards a punt.

There is a plan for every horse in the yard, no matter their ability level, and those are done in conjunction with the trainer. “I give him a list of horses and he tells me when they’ll be ready. I can then make a plan, the odd time I’d try to twist his arm. Every horse has a target but those plans are flexible. If it is not working, we will just change it.”

Last year’s Bellewstown July meeting was a time when the plans of a number of horses came together, the yard managing seven winners across the four-day meeting. “We targeted Bellewstown as a festival last year and aimed to have as many runners primed for it as we could. We picked out a number of horses that would be suited to races there four to six weeks beforehand; it just meant that we would go there instead of an alternative race a week or two either side of it. It is Gavin's local track and thankfully things worked out, he got them there in great nick.”

Plans will typically start with the aim of winning a race in Ireland but if the horse is struggling, they are not afraid to travel. “The initial aim is to win at home but the likes of Dundalk can be very competitive in the winter and, as Gavin says, we want winners.” When placing horses in the UK, Cunningham says that the “fully transparent entries and declarations are a massive help to race planners as can see what is entered before the race closes. Not all trainers have time to look through every race and we’ve won several races in Britain because of that, the Perth Silver Cup with Callthebarman was one example.”

Cromwell’s yard has grown exponentially in recent years; from 18 winners in 2016, their winners have gone 28, 45, 88 in the three years since. They were one of six Irish National Hunt yards to have at least 100 individual runners last season along with Mullins, Elliott, de Bromhead, O’Brien and Meade. This spurt is by design: “when I came here, Gavin was saying he wanted to give it a real go, the aim is to keep growing, you either compete or you don’t. We have a great team in the yard. Jonathan Moore has come in as stable jockey and done really well for us; we have one of the leading conditionals in the country in Conor McNamara, who went from strength to strength last season, and we also have the valuable claim of Breen Kane. Everyone in the yard works extremely hard to achieve the best results that we can.”

Part of that scaling up might be getting the bigger owners on board: this is a yard that, outside of JP McManus, is made up of “the smaller man, the medium man, syndicates”. Cunningham points out that “22 of our winners last year cost ten grand or less, we don’t aim for that and would like a higher quality of horse but we work with what we have”. On the broader subject of attracting new owners he says, “you hope what you’re doing with your horses will be evident to lads, we purchased a couple of horses from big owners that we did well with and that might perk their interest. If you do it on the track, you hope these lads will come to you”.

Getting bigger is not without its difficulties and he warns that “you don’t want to lose the personal touch, and Gavin has time for everyone”. Cromwell is described as a “good delegator” and you get the impression he is not afraid to back his staff. He is “upfront with owners which people tend to appreciate”. He also says his boss is “a brilliant judge of when a horse is or isn’t right” though this is more “a feel thing” than rooted in data.

Cunningham says that Cromwell’s best trait as a trainer is that “he gets the best out of them. He is very level-headed, he doesn’t get too down on himself when things don’t go right and he doesn’t get carried away with success. You don’t see many leaving and doing better elsewhere. The job he did with Espoir D’Allen was different class. To win a Champion Hurdle in the fashion he did really put Gavin’s training abilities in the limelight. Every quality horse he has had has fulfilled their potential”. Darver Star was freakish in this regard – “you just can’t explain his rate of improvement” – but there are other highlights from his time in the yard.

Lever Du Soleil won four in a row in the UK last summer. “We had three picked out and knocked a fourth out of it too but it’s not every horse that can go over and back like that. Over there, the way penalties work, you’ve got more chance of running up a sequence. He went from 54 to 84 in 18 days and it’s funny, lads remember that even though it’s low grade, it captures the imagination”.

The late decision to run Jeremy’s Flame (finished second) in January’s Tolworth Hurdle was another proud moment. “She was a late entry for that race getting the allowance and from my time in Powers I am inclined to take on the talking horses that haven’t done it yet so she was entitled to take her chance. 6/1 for a Grade 1 and 6/1 for a handicap on her next start, that was a good bit of placing”.

Patience and looking ahead is important in his job. “Top Of The Charts won four times last season and from a race planning side there were only two hurdles in the whole calendar that were backing up where he could win at the grade and back up under the penalty within 6 days. That worked well when he won at both Down Royal and Clonmel in late August and early September.”

Finding the next one is a major part of his job and one of the most challenging and rewarding aspects. “With the horse-in-training sales, I’ll go through every single horse which is a fair task as there are 1,500 in some of them. I’ll make notes on everything, go to Gavin with a list of 40-50 that I think have upside, he’ll look at them physically and scratch three-quarters of them on physical aspects he doesn’t like, the other 15 we’ll bid on and hopefully come home with four or five.

“He is happy to back me on form and we have done well from these sales. Wolf Prince was a good one, he won twice and finished second in a Grade 1 juvenile hurdle last season while Running In Heels [despite being nine when she joined the yard] won four times in 2018 having been purchased for £2,500.” Cunningham says that one of his strengths is that he comes at it “from a betting & form approach, not taking lads’ word as gospel who might be down on the horse for one reason or another.”

Doing his own video form and analysis, he is inclined to ignore the noise and “go with the formbook or the angle we have that might see them improve”. There are times when he hears something negative afterwards from someone previously involved with the horse but “you have to back yourself and it has worked out so far.”

Tony Keenan was speaking with Feidhlim Cunningham, race planner for trainer Gavin Cromwell