Posts

SotD Update, 14th to 19th May 2018

Definitely a week of two halves, the week just gone.

Started poorly with a 10th placed finish, then three good days with Alejandro being an unlucky runner-up before wins by Creevytennant and Morning With Ivan ensuring we'd make profit on the week. Sadly we couldn't add to the tally, as the week petered out with two more well-beaten runners.

Without discussing the ifs and maybes about unlucky losers (we don't go into excuses mode here at Geegeez!), we still made 1.5pts profit on the week and whilst May continues to be a tricky conundrum to solve, we're still in there pitching.

In fact, we're currently 3.1pts down for May with 10 selections yet to come (assuming no non-runners) and I'm still confident of making May our ninth profitable month in a row. We're a winner shy of breaking even, so I'm probably going to need 3 or 4 winners before the month is out, but we all know it can be done.

And before I go, one thing on the horizon to look forward to is Friday's selection, which by my maths will be SotD's 2000th pick and at the the very worst we'll tackle that race with an overall strike rate of almost 27.7% with an ROI just shy of 26%!

Selections & Results : 14/05/18 to 19/05/18 

14/05 : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4
15/05: Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1
16/05 : Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
17/05 : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4
18/05 : Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 5/1
19/05 : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/05/18 to 19/05/18  :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.50pts

May 2018 :
3 winners from 17 = 17.65% SR
P/L: -3.10pts
ROI = -18.24%

2018 to date :
30 winners from 110 = 27.27% SR
P/L: +32.41pts
ROI = +29.46%

Overall:
553 winners from 1995 = 27.72% S.R
P/L: +520.20pts
ROI: +26.08%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

Your first 30 days for just £1

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th May 2018

It was a better week this week, but still not ideal. Four placers and one fourth place runner only beaten by a length gave us grounds for encouragement, but it was left to Saturday's runner to ensure we came out of the week with something to show for our efforts.

Sadly a 10p Rule 4 deduction meant we only got 5.4/1 about the winner, but that was (a) enough to stop the losing run and (b) enough to ensure a small profit from the week.

We're currently 4.6pts down for May, but with only half of the month left, I'm confident of making May our ninth profitable month in a row. Let's not forget it's a marathon and not a sprint.

Selections & Results : 07/05/18 to 12/05/18 

07/05 : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2
08/05: Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1
09/05 : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1
10/05 : Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/8
11/05 : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2
12/05 : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4

07/05/18 to 12/05/18  :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.40pts

May 2018 :
1 winner from 11 = 9.09% SR
P/L: -4.60pts
ROI = -41.82%

2018 to date :
28 winners from 104 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +30.91pts
ROI = +29.72%

Overall:
551 winners from 1989 = 27.70% S.R
P/L: +518.70pts
ROI: +26.08%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.40 Market Rasen : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden after last, kept on towards finish, beaten by little more than a length)

We end a disappointing week with Saturday's...

6.45 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stonific @ 6/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  1m4f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £6728 to the winner... 

Why?

This is a very lightly raced, but in-form 5 yr old gelding. Just 5 starts to date and only two on turf so far. He was only beaten by a length as a runner-up on his turf debut at Doncaster when staying on late over 1m2f before winning last time out a fortnight ago.

That was at Haydock in a Class 4 handicap where he stayed on well again to get up by a neck, once again looking like a longer trip would suit him better. He gets that (+1.5f) today and with the yard's first choice jockey booked, more is expected today.

That jockey is Danny Tudhope and he rides this Thirsk track really well, winning 42 of 217 (19.4% SR) races here since 2011, generating profits of 104.4pts (+48.1% ROI) along the way for those who like to follow certain jockeys at certain tracks.

Trainer David O'Meara's horses are in very good nick right now too, as exemplified by 11 winners from 57 (19.3% SR) for 31pts (+54.4% ROI) over the last two weeks with those running on turf winning 11 of 51 (21.6%) for 37pts (+72.5%). Of these 51 Flat (turf) runners...

  • handicappers are 9/39 (23.1%) for 38.5pts (+98.8%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/25 (36%) for 43.3pts (+173.2%)
  • handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope are 7/18 (38.9%) for 39.8pts (+221.2%)
  • here at Thirsk : 2/8 (25%) for 19.4pts (+242.5%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope here at Thirsk : 1/3 (33.3%) for 16.05pts (+535%)

Those recent trainer/jockey figures are no purple patch nor a surprise, as since the start of the 2012 season, Messrs O'Meara & Tudhope have teamed up 1314 times in Flat (turf) handicaps, winning 217 (16.5% SR) of them for profits of 222.7pts at an decent ROI of 16.9%, from which...

  • here at Thirsk : 17/80 (21.25%) for 33.5pts (+41.8%)
  • and this season alone = 9/27 (33.3%) for 46.7pts (+172.9%) already!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stonific @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.25pm on Friday (although I've just taken 7/1 with Sky). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.35 Chester : Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, caught wide 8f out, pushed along and outpaced over 4f out, rallied on outside under pressure 2f out, went 3rd moderate inside final furlong)

We now continue with Friday's...

2.40 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  2m1½f  Handicap Hurdle (4yo+) on good ground worth £3899 to the winner... 

Why?

A poor looking race in all honesty with our pick's recent form sticking out like a sore thumb in a field of opponents without a win between them in the last 9+ months, whereas the penny has dropped of late for our boy (who is still only 6 yrs old), who has finished 212 since reverting back to shorter trips.

The win came here at Market Rasen over course and distance almost seven weeks ago in a Class 4 contest, so technically this should be an easier challenge, although that's not always the case!

Stat-wise, he's one of my "1234" horses where I back horses that won two starts ago (ie 1) and then finished 2nd. 3rd or 4th (ie 234) last time out less than three weeks ago. There are, of course, other rules/filters and these look far more complex in print that in actual usage, but are as follows...

  • UK NH Handicaps
  • 2013 to now
  • trips of 3.5 miles and shorter
  • OR of -2 to +11 from LTO
  • Class Move -2 to +2 from LTO
  • Distance Move -4.5f to +8.5f

These seem very broad and that's by design to gave a decent sample size of around 200 runners per year, which helps smooth out any anomalies/variance. Such criteria has actually generated 234 winners from 1112 (21% SR) runners for profits of 295.2pts (+26.6% ROI), from which...

  • males are 205/969 (21.2%) for 271.6pts (+28%)
  • off a mark within 2lbs of last run : 182/852 (21.4%) for 260.5pts (+30.6%)
  • runner-up LTO : 116/528 (22%) for 122.8pts (+23.3%)
  • on Good ground : 99/460 (21.5%) for 151.5pts (+32.9%)
  • and here at Market Rasen : 13/50 (26%) for 15.24pts (+30.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betway & Bet365 at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

3.35 Brighton : Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Took keen hold, held up in last pair, slight stumble over 6f out, headway on outside over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner)

We now continue with Wednesday's...

4.15 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  2m1f Handicap Chase (3yo+) on good ground worth £7538 to the winner... 

Why?

Since Easter last year, this 10 yr old gelding seems to have had a new lease of life, making the frame 5 times from 7 efforts, winning 4 of them! He was a winner when last seen at Carlisle 45 days ago, landing a 2 mile, Class 3 handicap chase by 6 lengths despite it being his comeback from 19 weeks off the track and the third placed horse that day (Pistol Park) has since finished 2nd and then 1st at this level.

That most recent win gives Sudski Star the following records of relevance today...

  • 9/22 with a tongue tie (6/11 over fences)
  • 8/22 going left handed (5/12)
  • 7/18 in fields of 1-7 runners (5/12)
  • 5/15 after a rest of 16-60 days (2/5)
  • 6/14 on good ground (3/8)
  • 6/9 when priced at 4/1 and shorter (4/6)
  • 4/9 here at Kelso (2/4)
  • 4/8 in blinkers (2/3)
  • 5/7 in April/May (3/4)
  • 2/7 at Class 3 (2/5)
  • 4/6 at 2m1f to 2m2.5f (3/5)
  • and 2/3 over course and distance (all over fences)

He is trained nearby in the Borders by Harriet Graham, who has had 10 NH winners from 54 runners over the past two years with this decent enough 18.5% strike rate generating profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of some 91.1% and under today's conditions, those runners are...

  • 9/44 (20.5%) for 28.75pts (+65.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 55.9pts (+136.3%) from male runners
  • 8/32 (25%) for 34.42pts (+107.6%) from her 9-11 yr olds
  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 5.85pts (+20.9%) here at Kelso
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 58.5pts (+265.9%) at trips shorter than 2m3f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 23.04pts (+115.2%) from March to May inclusive
  • 5/20 (25%) for 15.17pts (+75.9%) on good ground
  • and 3/15 (20%) for 9.22pts (+61.5%) over fences

Finally, since the start of 2016, NH handicappers sired by Piludski are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+115.1% ROI) over trips of 2m to 2m4f...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Tuesday, although the best price was 4/1 BOG from Bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Tuesday's...

3.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include...

  • 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
  • 3 from 3 in blinkers
  • 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole's yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva

And now to trainer Paul Cole...

Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today's race, those 37 are..

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle

AND...from the above  : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today's pick!

More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole's runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today...

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday's...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner... 

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today's jockey Oisin Murphy, he's a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod's overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday's...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today's jockey Oisin Murphy, he's a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod's overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 30th April to 5th May 2018

We don't dress things up here at Geegeez, we don't hide during tough times and we certainly don't make excuses for poor results.

With all that in mind, I hold my hands up : last week was poor. But there's little/no point dwelling on it, as that won't alter what's already happened. We'll just go again on Monday and do what we always do. The tide will turn again soon enough.

Selections & Results : 30/04/18 to 05/05/18 

30/04 : Star Ascending @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
01/05: Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1
02/05 : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1
03/05 : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1
04/05 : Robero @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 5/1
05/05 : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1

30/04/18 to 05/05/18 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

April 2018 :
5 winners from 23 = 21.74% SR
P/L: +1.50pts
ROI = +6.52%

May 2018 :
0 winners from 22 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2018 to date :
27 winners from 98 = 27.55% SR
P/L: +30.51pts
ROI = +31.13%

Overall:
550 winners from 1983 = 27.74% S.R
P/L: +518.30pts
ROI: +26.14%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

7.30 Newcastle : Insurgence @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We end what has been a poor week with Saturday's...

6.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo) on soft ground worth £7763 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got a 3 yr old who has made a good start to his career finishing 511 in his three outings to date and whilst he's never raced on turf before, he has shown versatility by running well on three different A/W tracks (Kempton, Newcastle & Lingfield).

He makes a handicap debut today for trainer Charlie Appleby, who is not only in good form of late, but has an excellent record here on Town Moor, making this venue probably the ideal pick for a turf/hcp debut for a 3 yr old.

Charlie's recent form stacks up like this...

  • 24/48 over the last 60 days
  • 13/28 over the last 30
  • and 2/5 in the past week

In addition/alongside the above, he's already 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+64.7% ROI) for the "new" Flat (turf) season, including 1 from 2 here at Doncaster, a track where he is 25/122 (20.5% SR) for 20.4pts (+16.7% ROI) overall with his Doncaster handicappers winning 12 of 51 (23.5%) for 35.5pts at an ROI of some 69.5%.

Of these 51 Donny 'cappers...

  • males are 11/42 ( 26.2%) for 41.3pts (+98.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/32 (18.75%) for 9.9pts (+30.9%)
  • over 1m to 1m4f : 9/31 (29%) for 45.8pts (+147.7%)
  • running after a break of 30 days or more : 11/30 (36.7%) for 50.1pts (+167.1%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/23 (21.7%) for 12.6pts (+54.7%)
  • those stepping up in class are 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.5pts (+81.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.6pts (+50.4%)
  • handicap debutants are 6/17 (35.3%) for 16pts (+94.2%)
  • over a mile : 3/10 (30%) for 23.74pts (+237.4%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/9 (22.2%) for 15.6pts (+173.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral, Paddy Power & Skybet at 8.20pm on Friday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!